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BUY Bank Rakyat Indonesia
Company update Attractively valued
Analyst What’s New
Rahmi Marina
rmarina@kimeng.co.id BRI looks ahead to a y/y loan growth rate of 20%‐22% this year. It
(62 21) 2557 1128 would exceed the 2010 loan growth rate that is expected to fall within
the upper part of the 15%‐20% range. To achieve its 2011 target, BRI
plans to increase its accessibility in consumer and SME lending.
Price (Rp) Rp4,800 Loan quality is not a concern for BRI as long as its NPL remains below
Target (Rp) Rp6,200 the safety level of 5% as set by Bank Indonesia (BI). Historically, we will
www.kimengresearch.com
IDX Index 3455 see higher NPL rates during the first nine months before write‐offs
take place in the 4th quarter of the year. The bank, however, remains
Historical Chart cautious about the inflation level that may post a risk to loan demand
and asset quality.
(Rp)
6,500 Volume (mil. shares) Close
(Million shares)
100.0
90.0
6,000
80.0 Our View
70.0
5,500
60.0
5,000 50.0 Higher accessibility will require BRI to be more competitive as in the
40.0
4,500
30.0
20.0
case of its interest rate. Cutting its lending rates and setting a deposit
4,000
3,500
10.0
0.0
rate closer to the maximum limit of 7% as set by the BI may lead to a
11-Jan-10 25-Feb-10 16-Apr-10 4-Jun-10 22-Jul-10 16-Sep-10 2-Nov-10 21-Dec-10
gradual compression in its NIM. However, the bank should be able to
Performance 1m 3m 6m enlarge its customer base in the consumer and SME segments. This
Absolute (%) ‐12.7 ‐11.1 3.2 would be a positive development for its long‐term growth.
Relative (%) ‐4.9 ‐8.5 ‐14.1 Thus, we fine‐tune our earnings estimate for a possible NIM decline
and ease the provisioning expense on the back of controlled asset
Stock Information quality. Our adjustments bring the 2011F EPS down by 4.3% to
Rp443.7. This, however, still represents a y/y growth rate of 13.4%; its
Ticker code BBRI 2010F EPS was Rp391.2.
Market cap (US$m) 12,966
52‐week high (Rp) 6,250
52‐week low (Rp) 3,550
Action & Recommendation
Shares issued (m) 12,247 BRI is highly attractive: at 28.3%, its ROE is still among the highest in
6m avg d.vol (US$m) 18.1
the industry in 2011F. Liquidity will also improve following the
Free float (%) 43.2
Major shareholders (%) conclusion of its stock‐split effective yesterday. We recommend BUY
Government of RI ( 56.8) on the bank’s positive long‐term financial stability. Our post stock‐split
INDONESIA
TP is Rp6,200/share (14.0x 2011F PER; 3.6x 2011F PBV).
Key Indicators* Year End Dec 31 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F
NII (Rp b) 18,752 11,133 27,606 29,579 33,922
NIM (%) 9.5 Pretax Profit (Rp b) 8,822 9,891 11,912 13,512 17,015
ROA (%) 3.7 Net profit (Rp b) 5,958 7,308 9,530 10,809 13,612
ROE (%) 34.3
EPS (Rp) 243 298 391 444 559
CIR (%) 41.4
*Bank only, not consolidated EPS growth (%) 23.1 22.7 31.1 13.4 25.9
PER (x) 19.7 16.1 12.3 10.8 8.6
PBV (x) 5.3 4.3 3.4 2.8 2.3
Yield (%) 3.5 3.7 4.9 2.8 3.5
SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Bank Rakyat Indonesia 12 January 2011
Figure 1: Trailing PBV band
BRI is currently 8,000
0
Dec-0 5 Jun-0 6 Dec-06 Jun -07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-0 8 Jun-0 9 Dec-09 Jun -10 Dec-10
Source: Company data, Kim Eng Securities
Figure 2: Bank Rakyat Indonesia 9M10 results
(Rp b) 9M10 9M09 % chg y/y 3Q10 2Q10 % chg q/q
Net Interest Income 21,030 16,816 25.1 7,311 7,016 4.2
Operating income 2,578 2,851 ‐9.6 983 769 27.9
Operating expenses 15,063 13,648 10.4 5,320 5,259 1.2
Pre‐tax income 8,508 6,665 27.6 3,060 2,609 17.3
Net profit 6,657 5,302 25.6 2,339 2,167 7.9
Gross loans 233,668 194,076 20.4 233,668 230,492 1.4
Total assets 325,944 275,993 18.1 325,944 323,803 0.7
Total deposits 261,544 221,519 18.1 261,544 260,855 0.3
NIM (%) 9.5 9.2
Gross NPL (%) 4.3 3.9
LDR (%) 89.0 87.4
CAR (%) 13.4 13.5
Source: Company data
2
Bank Rakyat Indonesia 12 January 2011
Profit and loss Key ratios
YE Dec (Rp b) 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F YE Dec 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F
Net Interest Income 18,752 21,924 27,606 29,579 33,922 Per share ratio
Fees and commissions 2,665 3,244 2,658 3,190 3,668 EPS (Rp) 243.2 298.4 391.2 443.7 558.8
Other income 717 1,152 707 278 278 EPS Growth (%) 23.1 22.7 31.1 13.4 25.9
Operating Income 19,469 23,076 28,313 29,857 34,200 PER (X) 19.7 16.1 12.3 10.8 8.6
Operating expenses 10,957 11,976 13,266 13,565 14,036 BVPS (Rp) 912 1,113 1,412 1,722 2,113
Pre‐Provision Profit 8,512 11,101 15,047 16,293 20,164 PBV (X) 5.3 4.3 3.4 2.8 2.3
Loan Loss Provision (2,830) (5,784) (5,756) (5,971) (6,817) ROA (%) 2.6 1.7 2.9 3.0 3.3
Pretax Profit 8,822 9,891 11,912 13,512 17,015 ROE (%) 28.5 16.3 30.9 28.3 29.1
Tax (2,864) (2,583) (2,382) (2,702) (3,403) DPS (Rp) 168.8 177.8 234.7 133.1 167.6
Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 Dividend yield (%) 3.5 3.7 4.9 2.8 3.5
Net Profit 5,958 7,308 9,530 10,809 13,612 Earning & forecasts (%)
Net profit growth 23.2 22.7 30.4 13.4 25.9
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
Net interest income growth 17.0 16.9 25.9 7.1 14.7
Cost Income Ratio 51.2 47.6 43.8 41.4 37.3
Loans growth 41.4 29.2 17.5 20.0 15.0
Deposits growth 21.7 27.0 8.6 11.5 14.1
Loans/Deposit Ratio 79.9 81.3 88.0 94.7 95.4
Balance sheet Yield on IEA 11.8 11.3 12.1 12.3 12.3
YE Dec (Rp b) 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F Cost of funds 4.0 4.4 4.1 4.6 4.6
Cash on hand 6,750 8,139 9,036 8,456 9,293 Net interest margin 8.1 7.3 8.4 8.1 8.1
Deposits at BI 30,323 39,901 15,605 25,250 28,755 Asset quality
Placements 5,686 22,511 23,210 21,721 23,871 Gross NPL amount (Rp b) 4,515 7,232 9,884 11,861 13,640
Mkt. securities 21,172 15,298 18,595 17,403 19,125 Net NPL amount (Rp b) 0 0 0 0 0
Gross Loans 161,108 208,123 244,544 293,453 337,471 Gross NPL ratio (%) 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0
Fixed assets 1,346 1,366 1,288 1,222 1,169 Net NPL ratio (%) ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Other 19,675 21,608 32,865 20,095 21,253 Total provisions / NPL (%) 177.3 157.2 155.2 155.2 155.2
Total Assets 246,060 316,947 345,143 387,599 440,936 Tier One CAR (%) 10.3 9.5 10.7 11.7 12.7
Customer deposits 201,537 255,928 277,910 309,800 353,608 Total CAR (%) 13.6 11.7 11.0 12.5 13.3
Borrowings 4,067 13,611 11,085 11,085 11,085 Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
Other liabilities 18,116 20,150 21,759 24,759 24,759
Total liabilities 223,720 289,690 310,754 345,644 389,452
Paid up capital 6,163 6,165 6,165 6,165 6,165
Additional paid up capital 2,744 3,168 3,719 3,719 3,719
Others 108 90 0 0 0
Retained earnings 13,325 17,835 24,505 32,072 41,600
Shareholders fund 22,339 27,257 34,389 41,956 51,484
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0
Total liabilities & Equity 246,060 316,947 345,143 387,599 440,936
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
3
ANALYSTS’ COVERAGE / RESEARCH OFFICES
SINGAPORE MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES
Stephanie WONG Head of Research YEW Chee Yoon Head of Research Ricardo PUIG Head of Research
Regional Head of Institutional Research +603 2141 1555 cheeyoon@kimengkl.com +63 2 849 8835 ricardo_puig@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1451 swong@kimeng.com Strategy Strategy
Strategy Banks Property
Small & Mid Caps Telcos Telcos
Gregory YAP Property Laura DY‐LIACCO
+65 6432 1450 gyap@kimeng.com Conglomerates & others +63 2 849 8840 laura_dyliacco@atr.com.ph
Conglomerates LIEW Mee Kien Utilities
Technology & Manufacturing +603 2141 1555 meekien@kimengkl.com Conglomerates
Transport & Telcos Gaming Lovell SARREAL
Rohan SUPPIAH Media +63 2 849 8841 lovell_sarreal@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1455 rohan@kimeng.com Power Consumer
Airlines Construction Media
Marine & Offshore Research Team Kenneth NERECINA
Pauline LEE +603 2141 1555 +63 2 849 8839 kenneth_nerecina@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1453 paulinelee@kimeng.com Food & Beverage Conglomerates
Bank & Finance Manufacturing Cement
Consumer Plantations Ports/ Logistics
Retail Tobacco Katherine TAN
Wilson LIEW Technology +63 2 849 8843 kat_tan@atr.com.ph
+65 6432 1454 wilsonliew@kimeng.com Banks
Hotel & Resort INDONESIA Construction
Property & Construction Katarina SETIAWAN Head of Research
Anni KUM +6221 2557 1125 ksetiawan@kimeng.co.id REGIONAL
+65 6432 1470 annikum@kimeng.com Consumer Luz LORENZO Economist
Industrials Infra +63 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@atr.com.ph
REITs Shipping Economics
James KOH Strategy
+65 6432 1431 jameskoh@kimeng.com Telcos ONG Seng Yeow
Infrastructure Others +65 6432 1832 ongsengyeow@kimeng.com
Resources Ricardo SILAEN Regional Products & Planning
Eric ONG +6221 2557 1126 rsilaen@kimeng.co.id
+65 6432 1857 ericong@kimeng.com Auto
Marine & Offshore Energy TAIWAN
David LOOMIS Heavy Equipment Gary Chia
+65 6432 1417 dloomis@kimeng.com Property Head of Greater China Research
Special Situations Resources +886 2 3518 7900 gary.chia@yuanta.com
Rahmi MARINA Boris Markovich
HONG KONG / CHINA +6221 2557 1128 rmarina@kimeng.co.id COO, Greater China Research
Edward FUNG Head of Research Banking +852 3969 9518 boris.markovic@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0632 edwardfung@kimeng.com.hk Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA John Brebeck, CFA
Power +6221 2557 1127 lariesandi@kimeng.co.id Head of Taiwan Strategy
Construction Cement Head of Research, Taiwan
Norman ZHANG Construction +886 2 3518 7906 john.brebeck@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0631 normanzhang@kimeng.com.hk Pharmaceutical George Chang, CFA
Technology Retail Head of Upstream Tech
Mid‐caps Adi N. WICAKSONO +886 2 3518 7907 george.chang@yuanta.com
Ivan CHEUNG +6221 2557 1130 anwicaksono@kimeng.co.id Vincent Chen
+852 2268 0634 ivancheung@kimeng.com.hk Generalist Head of Downstream Tech
Property Arwani PRANADJAYA +886 2 3518 7903 vincent.chen@yuanta.com
Industrial +6221 2557 1129 apranadjaya@kimeng.co.id Dennis Chan – NB Supply Chain
Ivan LI Technical analyst +886 2 3518 7913 dennis.chan@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0641 ivanli@kimeng.com.hk Andrew C Chen – IC Backend
Banking & Finance VIETNAM +886 2 3518 7940 andrew.chen@yuanta.com
TAM Tsz Wang Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen Ellen Chiu – Taiwan Consumer
+852 2268 0636 tamtszwang@kimeng.com.hk +84 838 38 66 36 x 163 tuyen.nguyen@kimeng.com.vn +886 2 3518 7936 ellen.chiu@yuanta.com
Telcos Pharmaceutical Danny Ho – Taiwan Petrochemical
Green Energy Confectionary and Beverage +886 2 3518 7923 danny.ho@yuanta.com
Jacqueline KO Oil and Gas Min Li – Alternative Energy
+852 2268 0633 jacquelineko@kimeng.com.hk Ngo Bich Van +852 3969 9521 min.li@yuanta.com
Consumer Staples +84 838 38 66 36 x 164 van.ngo@kimeng.com.vn May Lin – Taiwan Telecom
Grace DAI Bank +886 2 3518 7942 may.lin@yuanta.com
+852 2268 0640 gracedai@kimeng.com.hk Insurance Tess Wang – Taiwan Financials
Metal Nguyen Quang Duy +886 2 3518 7901 tess.wang@yuanta.com
+84 838 38 66 36 x 162 duy.nguyenquang@kimeng.com.vn
INDIA Shipping
Jigar SHAH Head of Research Seafood
+91 22 6623 2601 jshah@kimeng.com Rubber
Oil & Gas Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep
Transportation +84 838 38 66 36 x 166 diep.trinh@kimeng.com.vn
Anubhav GUPTA Property
+91 22 6623 2605 agupta@kimeng.com Construction
Property
Capital goods THAILAND
Rohit LEDWANI Kanchan KHANIJOU
+91226623 2625 rohit@kimeng.co.in + 662 658 6300 x 4750 kanchan@kimeng.co.th
Banking and Financial services Banks
Nikhil AGARWAL Construction Materials
+91226623 2611 nikhil@kimeng.co.in Nathavut SHIVARUCHIWONG Recommendation definitions
Cement + 662 658 6300 x 4730 nathavut@kimeng.co.th
Metals Property
Our recommendation is based on the
Haripreet BATRA Shipping following expected price
+91226623 2606 haripreet@imeng.co.in
Software performance within 12 months:
Education
Ganesh RAM +15% and above: BUY
+91226623 2607 ganeshram@kimeng.co.in
Telecom ‐15% to +15%: HOLD
Media ‐15% or worse: SELL
4
Bank Rakyat Indonesia 12 January 2011
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLOSURES
AND
DISCLAIMERS
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5
Bank Rakyat Indonesia 12 January 2011
Additional information on mentioned securities is available on request.
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As of 12 January 2011, PT Kim Eng Securities and the covering analyst do not have any interest in companies mentioned in the
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Analyst Certification:
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject
securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
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6
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