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innovationeconomyv3-1226384863551777-9

innovationeconomyv3-1226384863551777-9

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STKI Company Confidential forSTKI clients only11/11/2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel+972 (0) 9 790 7000 1
1
Innovation Economy:
Resist the hype but don’t ignore the realities
Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf 
Research Fellow
S T K I
 jimmy@stki.inf
 
 
STKI
הידפיקיו ךותמ,תישפוחה הידפולקיצנאה
תרבחSTKI -Schwarzkopf The Knowledge Integratorsלארשיב עדימ תוכרעמ םוחתב ץועיי תרבח איה,תווצ הליעפמהםיטסילנאלשםיקנבםיללוכהרבחהתוחוקלחוטיבתורבח
WIKIPEDIA
 
All
 
Rights
 
Reserved
 
@STKI
 
Moshav
 
Bnei
 
Zion,
 
Israel
 
+
+972 9 790 7000
www.stki.info
 . ,, הלשממ ידרשמ,ייה תורבח-היישעתו קט,דועו םוקלט תורבח. ה תונש עצמאב-80,ד"ג ר'ימי)םייח(תא עציב ףוקצרווש לארשיב עדימה תייגולונכט קוש תודוא וגוסמ ןושארה רקחמה,תרבח רובעDEC.ילארשיה קושב םילג הכה רקחמה,ןתנו הפוממ יתלב תע התוא דע היהש קושב תיטרקנוק בצמ תנומת.ד"תנשבו קושה רקחב ךישמה ףוקצרווש ר1992תרבח תא םיקה Meta Group Israel,תרבח לש לארשיב תוגיצנכ השמיששMeta Groupתימלועה.הרבחה תרגסמב,ד ךישמה"ר עובק ןפואב םוחתב קוש ירקחמ םסרפל ףוקצרווש,קפסל ןכוקושב םיליבומה םינוגראהו תורבחל ץועיי.תנשב2004השכרנ Meta Groupרנטרג תרבח ידי לע תימלועה,דו"ףוקצרווש ר םשה תחת לארשיב םתוליעפב וכישמה םיטסילנאהוSTKI.
 
3
All
 
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Reserved
 
@STKI
 
Moshav
 
Bnei
 
Zion,
 
Israel
 
+972
 
9
 
74
 
444
 
74
 
www.stki.info
 
4
All
 
Rights
 
Reserved
 
2008@STKI
 
Moshav
 
Bnei
 
Zion,
 
Israel
 
+972
 
9
 
790
 
7000
 
www.stki.info
 
5
All
 
Rights
 
Reserved
 
2008@STKI
 
Moshav
 
Bnei
 
Zion,
 
Israel
 
+972
 
9
 
790
 
7000
 
www.stki.info
 
6
All
 
Rights
 
Reserved
 
2008@STKI
 
Moshav
 
Bnei
 
Zion,
 
Israel
 
+972
 
9
 
790
 
7000
 
www.stki.info
 
STKI Company Confidential forSTKI clients only11/11/2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel+972 (0) 9 790 7000 2
7
All
 
Rights
 
Reserved
 
2008@STKI
 
Moshav
 
Bnei
 
Zion,
 
Israel
 
+972
 
9
 
790
 
7000
 
www.stki.info
 
All Rights Reserved 2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel +972 9 790 7000 w
Inviting
 
you
 
to
 
my
 
office
 
All
 
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Reserved
 
2008@STKI
 
Moshav
 
Bnei
 
Zion,
 
Israel
 
+972
 
9
 
790
 
7000
 
www.stki.info
 
and
 
to
 
my
 
library.........
All
 
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Reserved
 
2008@STKI
 
Moshav
 
Bnei
 
Zion,
 
Israel
 
+972
 
9
 
790
 
7000
 
www.stki.info
 
This
 
presentation
 
is
 
dangerous:
 
will
 
make
 
people
 
think
 
about
 
intelligence
 
and
 
wisdom
(two
 
very
 
different
 
things)
Evariste
 
Galois
 
(1811
1832)
 – 
accepted
 
a
 
duel
 
with
 
pistols.
 
 – 
spent
 
the
 
night
 
before
 
the
 
duel
 
in
 
writing
 
down
 
his
 
mathematical
 
testament
:
 
theory 
 
of 
 
transformation
 
of 
 
roots
 
in
 
algebraic
 
equations
.
All
 
Rights
 
Reserved
 
2008@STKI
 
Moshav Bnei Zion,
 
Israel
 
+972
 
9
 
790
 
7000
 
www.stki.info
 
STKI Company Confidential forSTKI clients only11/11/2008@STKI Moshav Bnei Zion Israel+972 (0) 9 790 7000 3
If 
 
I
 
could
 
have
 
predicted
 
this
 
??
All
 
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Reserved
 
2008@STKI
 
Moshav
 
Bnei
 
Zion,
 
Israel
 
+972
 
9
 
790
 
7000
 
www.stki.info
“When the network becomes as fast as theprocessor, the computer hollows out andspreads across the network.” –Eric Schmidt, did in 1993
So:
 
I
 
cannot
 
“predict”
 
any
 
one
 
in
 
particular
 
but…..
Exponential
 
Growth
 
in
 
logarithmic
 
plot
 
15
www.KurzweilAI.net
All
 
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Reserved
 
2008@STKI
 
Moshav Bnei Zion,
 
Israel
 
+972
 
9
 
790
 
7000
 
www.stki.info
16
www.KurzweilAI.net
 
What has happened in 2008 and what can I do?
Is there a difference betweenIs there a difference between
economic cycleseconomic cycles
caused by:caused by:1.1.Technology changesTechnology changes2.2.Credit mismanagementCredit mismanagement
All
 
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Reserved
 
@STKI
 
Moshav
 
Bnei
 
Zion,
 
Israel
 
+
+972 9 790 7000
www.stki.info
…will this change INSTITUTIONS…will this change INSTITUTIONSorganization, production and consumptionorganization, production and consumptionhabits and norms ?habits and norms ?
Prof.
 
Prescott
 
and
 
Prof.
 
Kydland
 
"contributions
 
to
 
dynamic
 
macroeconomics:
 
the
 
time
 
consistency
 
of 
 
economic
 
policy
 
and
 
the
 
driving
 
forces
 
behind
 
business
 
cycles
"
Forces
 
behind
 
business
 
cycles
:
 
 – 
ec no ogy
 
or
 
convert ng
 
nputs
 
o
 
capital
 
and
 
labor
 
into
 
output
 
of 
 
goods
 
(technology
 
for
 
creating
 
value)
 – 
Technological
 
change
 
Sveriges Riksbank PrizeEconomic SciencesAlfred Nobel 2004
All
 
Rights
 
Reserved
 
2008@STKI
 
Moshav Bnei Zion,
 
Israel
 
+972
 
9
 
790
 
7000
 
www.stki.info

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