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In 1958, an economist from New Zealand, A.W.H.

Phillips (1914–75), proposed that there was a


trade-off between INFLATION and UNEMPLOYMENT: the lower the unemployment rate, the
higher was the rate of inflation. Governments simply had to choose the right balance between the
two evils. He drew this conclusion by studying nominal wage rates and jobless rates in the UK
between 1861 and 1957, which seemed to show the relationship of unemployment and inflation
as a smooth curve.

Economies did seem to work like this in the 1950s and 1960s, but then the relationship broke
down. Now economists prefer to talk about the NAIRU, the lowest rate of unemployment at
which inflation does not accelerate.

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