Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1160248
Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesDivisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary AffairsFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.Explaining a Productive DecadeStephen D. Oliner, Daniel E. Sichel, and Kevin J. Stiroh
2007-63
NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1160248
Explaining a Productive Decade
STEPHEN D
.
OLINER
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
DANIEL E
.
SICHEL
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
KEVIN J
.
STIROH
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
August 2007We thank Martin Baily, John Fernald, Andrew Figura, Dale Jorgenson, Gregory Mankiw, participants at the March 2007 Brookings Panel conference, and participants at the March 2007Productivity Meeting at the National Bureau of Economic Research for useful comments anddiscussions; we also thank John Roberts for providing code and assistance to implement hisKalman filter model, George Smith and Robert Yuskavage of the Bureau of Economic Analysisfor help with the industry data, and David Byrne for assistance with semiconductor data. Theviews expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,or other staff members at either organization.
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1160248
Abstract
This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. productivity growth in recent years using both aggregateand industry-level data. We confirm the central role for information technology (IT) in the productivity revival during 1995-2000 and show that IT played a significant, though smaller, roleafter 2000. Productivity growth after 2000 appears to have been boosted by industryrestructuring and cost cutting in response to profit pressures, an unlikely source of futurestrength. In addition, the incorporation of intangible capital into the growth accountingframework takes some of the luster off the performance of labor productivity since 2000 andmakes the gain during 1995-2000 look larger than in the official data. Finally, we examine theoutlook for trend growth in labor productivity; our estimate, though subject to much uncertainty,is centered at 2-1/4 percent a year, faster than the lackluster pace that prevailed before 1995 butsomewhat slower than the 1995-2006 average.
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Explaining a Productive Decade
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs
Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC
Explaining a Productive Decade
Authors:Stephen D. Oliner, Daniel E. Sicher and Kevin J. Stiroh
Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs
Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC
Explaining a Productive Decade
Authors:Stephen D. Oliner, Daniel E. Sicher and Kevin J. Stiroh
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