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Naufal Sanaullah Risk plunges while oil, USTs, and JPY surge on safe haven bid
naufalsanaullah@gmail.com
www.shadowcapitalism.com
as the revolution is being televised
Huge day in the market on Friday as the Egyptian protests accelerated into all-out revolution,
calling for the end of the three decade rule of 82-year-old dictator Hosni Mubarak. So far, Mubarak
has maintained his authority over Egypt’s leadership, although he has now appointed a vice
president and introduced an entirely new government. Meanwhile, the US has remained passively
watching things unfold, calling for no more than reform and indirectly affirming the legitimacy of
Hosni’s government which has received billions in funding from the US. However, tensions are
rising as protests are popping up in Libya, Jordan, Syria, and most importantly, Saudi Arabia. Living
conditions are not comparable to Tunisia or Egypt in Saudi Arabia, but one must wonder if we are
currently witnessing a paradigm shift in the Muslim population in the Middle East, away from the
dichotomy of theocracy and dictatorship, and toward democracy. Israel is likely closely watching
developments unfold, especially if more secular and democratic regimes start taking control of
Middle Eastern nations. For now, Egyptian opposition leader Mohammed El-Baradei has gained the
support of the general opposition movement and a transfer of power looks likely, while Saudi
stocks plunged 6% over the weekend while CDS spreads skyrocketed.
The S&P closed down 1.79% on Friday on the back of the protests in Cairo and Alexandria, with
volume almost double average figures, sending the index closing below its 21d for the first time
since November. I have been noting the recent underperformance of beta and the negative
divergence between the Dow and the S&P/Russell, and my prediction of a risk aversion-driven
unwind into USTs & JPY seems to be coming to fruition, for now at least. The S&P 1300 level I have
been stressing as significant resistance seems to be offering serious overhead supply, and with the
index closing at its day’s lows right at the support trendline of its rising channel defining its rally
since late August, my call for a correction to 1225 may be coming to light.
Meanwhile, the growing stagflation risk in the UK saw more confirmation with a -29 consumer
confidence print on Friday. Cable continues to follow the head & shoulders trajectory I posted last
week around 1.60, and remains an attractive sell above 1.57 in my opinion. But GBPJPY looks much
more bearish, with a two big figure plunge on Friday, and post-crash lows not far below current
levels, I think GBPJPY could see new post-Lehman lows in 2011 or 2012, and help to bring cable
down much further as well. EURGBP may end up being a surprisingly good buy in 2011 and/or
2012, depending on the timing of any future European sovereign dilemmas and any further
negative UK economic data.