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About 68% of the values lie within 1 standard deviation of the mean. In statistical notation, this
is represented as: .
About 95% of the values lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean. The statistical notation for
this is: .
Nearly all (99.7%) of the values lie within 3 standard deviations of the mean. Statisticians use the
following notation to represent this: .
This rule is often used to quickly get a rough probability estimate of something, given its
standard deviation, if the population is assumed normal, thus also as a simple test for outliers (if
the population is assumed normal), and as a normality test (if the population is potentially not
normal).
Recall that to pass from a sample to a number of standard deviations, one computes the
deviation, either the error or residual (accordingly if one knows the population mean or only
estimates it), and then either uses standardizing (dividing by the population standard deviation),
if the population parameters are known, or studentizing (dividing by an estimate of the standard
deviation), if the parameters are unknown and only estimated.
To use as a test for outliers or a normality test, one computes the size of deviations in terms of
standard deviations, and compares this to expected frequency. Given a sample set, compute the
studentized residuals and compare these to the expected frequency: points that fall more than 3
standard deviations from the norm are likely outliers (unless the sample size is significantly
large, by which point one expects a sample this extreme), and if there are many points more than
3 standard deviations from the norm, one likely has reason to question the assumed normality of
the distribution. This holds ever more strongly for moves of 4 or more standard deviations.
One can compute more precisely, approximating the number of extreme moves of a given
magnitude or greater by a Poisson distribution, but simply, if one has multiple 4 standard
deviation moves in a sample of size 1,000, one has strong reason to consider these outliers or
question the assumed normality of the distribution.
Six Sigma is a business management strategy originally developed by Motorola, USA in 1986.[1]
[2]
As of 2010, it is widely used in many sectors of industry, although its use is not without
controversy.
Six Sigma seeks to improve the quality of process outputs by identifying and removing the
causes of defects (errors) and minimizing variability in manufacturing and business processes.[3]
It uses a set of quality management methods, including statistical methods, and creates a special
infrastructure of people within the organization ("Black Belts", "Green Belts", etc.) who are
experts in these methods.[3] Each Six Sigma project carried out within an organization follows a
defined sequence of steps and has quantified financial targets (cost reduction or profit increase).
[3]
The term six sigma originated from terminology associated with manufacturing, specifically
terms associated with statistical modelling of manufacturing processes. The maturity of a
manufacturing process can be described by a sigma rating indicating its yield, or the percentage
of defect-free products it creates. A six-sigma process is one in which 99.99966% of the products
manufactured are statistically expected to be free of defects (3.4 defects per million). Motorola
set a goal of "six sigmas" for all of its manufacturing operations, and this goal became a byword
for the management and engineering practices used to achieve it.
METHODS
Six Sigma projects follow two project methodologies inspired by Deming's Plan-Do-Check-Act
Cycle. These methodologies, composed of five phases each, bear the acronyms DMAIC and
DMADV.[12]
DMAIC is used for projects aimed at improving an existing business process. [12] DMAIC is
pronounced as "duh-may-ick".
DMADV is used for projects aimed at creating new product or process designs. [12] DMADV is
pronounced as "duh-mad-vee".
[edit] DMAIC
Define the problem, the voice of the customer, and the project goals, specifically.
Measure key aspects of the current process and collect relevant data.
Analyze the data to investigate and verify cause-and-effect relationships. Determine what the
relationships are, and attempt to ensure that all factors have been considered. Seek out root
cause of the defect under investigation.
Improve or optimize the current process based upon data analysis using techniques such as
design of experiments, poka yoke or mistake proofing, and standard work to create a new,
future state process. Set up pilot runs to establish process capability.
Control the future state process to ensure that any deviations from target are corrected before
they result in defects. Implement control systems such as statistical process control, production
boards, and visual workplaces, and continuously monitor the process.
The DMADV project methodology, also known as DFSS ("Design For Six Sigma"),[12] features
five phases:
Define design goals that are consistent with customer demands and the enterprise strategy.
Measure and identify CTQs (characteristics that are Critical To Quality), product capabilities,
production process capability, and risks.
Analyze to develop and design alternatives, create a high-level design and evaluate design
capability to select the best design.
Design details, optimize the design, and plan for design verification. This phase may require
simulations.
Verify the design, set up pilot runs, implement the production process and hand it over to the
process owner(s).
Within the individual phases of a DMAIC or DMADV project, Six Sigma utilizes many
established quality-management tools that are also used outside of Six Sigma. The following
table shows an overview of the main methods used.
5 Whys Histograms
Analysis of variance Quality Function Deployment (QFD)
ANOVA Gauge R&R Pareto chart
Axiomatic design Pick chart
Business Process Mapping Process capability
Cause & effects diagram (also known as Quantitative marketing research through
fishbone or Ishikawa diagram) use of Enterprise Feedback Management
Chi-square test of independence and fits (EFM) systems
Control chart Regression analysis
Correlation Root cause analysis
Cost-benefit analysis Run charts
CTQ tree SIPOC analysis (Suppliers, Inputs, Process,
Design of experiments Outputs, Customers)
Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) Taguchi methods
General linear model Taguchi Loss Function
TRIZ
DMAIC Process
Define the
Problem
Measure &
Analysis
Improve
Control
- Provide full information about the problem such as the
rejection %, Suspected sources of variations for the problem,
type of response
Apply DOE techniques and arrive at the “Root cause”
(Controllable cause) for the problem
Validate the Root cause using B vs C
Identify and Implement solution for eliminating the root causes
Identify and Implement control measures for the root cause to
make sure that the problem is prevented from occurring
D:
Six Sigma is a proven disciplined approach for improving measurable results for any organization. Six
Sigma project success stories exist from organizations including manufacturing, service, nonprofit,
government, research and healthcare. The key to Six Sigma is the completion of leadership sponsored
projects. Six Sigma Certification requires completing an actual Six Sigma project. SixSigma.us offers both
live and online programs
Six Sigma at many organizations simply means a measure of quality that strives for near
perfection. Six Sigma is a disciplined, data-driven approach and methodology for eliminating
defects (driving toward six standard deviations between the mean and the nearest specification
limit) in any process -- from manufacturing to transactional and from product to service.
The statistical representation of Six Sigma describes quantitatively how a process is performing.
To achieve Six Sigma, a process must not produce more than 3.4 defects per million
opportunities. A Six Sigma defect is defined as anything outside of customer specifications. A
Six Sigma opportunity is then the total quantity of chances for a defect. Process sigma can easily
be calculated using a Six Sigma calculator.
According to the Six Sigma Academy, Black Belts save companies approximately $230,000 per
project and can complete four to 6 projects per year. General Electric, one of the most successful
companies implementing Six Sigma, has estimated benefits on the order of $10 billion during the
first five years of implementation. GE first began Six Sigma in 1995 after Motorola and Allied
Signal blazed the Six Sigma trail. Since then, thousands of companies around the world have
discovered the far reaching benefits of Six Sigma.
Many frameworks exist for implementing the Six Sigma methodology. Six Sigma Consultants all
over the world have developed proprietary methodologies for implementing Six Sigma quality,
based on the similar change management philosophies and applications of tools.
Six Sigma Green Belt Certificate Program Topics Covered in the Program
Improve
Overview
Control
Six Sigma is all about mindset and culture shift that eliminates the
marginal methods that have been used in the past and replacing them with a set
Six Sigma Green Belt Certifica
of simple yet sophisticated statistical/analytical tools that continually produce
exceptional results in how processes operate. It helps to create a high
Program
performance organization.
TOOLS
Develop a core group of managers and professional personnel who can
work as a team in the implementation of six sigma.
Develop a comprehensive and integrated approach to six sigma that Brain storming
takes in to account the necessary training required in all functions and at
Pareto chart
all levels within the organization.
Project Charter
Develop an approach to six sigma that is appropriate for the
management team, resources, technology, and work force of the SIPOC
organization. Stake holder analysis
Develop a more accountable and responsible management group capable Process mapping
of becoming industry leaders.
Fish bone analysis
Become more effective operationally in the following ways:
o Shorter cycle times for all key processes. Measurement system anal
o Striving for and/or meeting six sigma quality standards gage R&R
o Continuous cost reduction based on continuous process SPC
improvements Control charts
o Increased productivity as both management, staff, and
Process capability
workforce become more disciplined in the six sigma methodology
o Synchronous work flow based on more effective process linkage Hypothesis testing
o Elimination of waiting time within and between processes ANOVA
o Waste reduction resulting from meeting more demanding
performance standards
o Improved customer service based on more robust and DOE
dependable process designs
o More efficient use of resources resulting from both improved
process designs and better management practices
o Elimination of “silo management” in the organization structure
Topics
Define
Measure
Analyze
Improve
Developing solutions
Design of experiments
Process Optimization
Response Surface Methodology
Evolutionary Operations
Control
GENERAL MANAGERS
FACTORY MANAGERS MANUFACTURING
BUSINESS MANAGERS BPO
FINANCE /COSTING SOFTWARE
MANAGERS MEDICAL
PRODUCTION MANAGERS HOTELS
PROJECT MANAGERS AIR LINES
QUALITY MANAGERS BANKING
GROUP LEADS CONSTRUCTION
SERVICE MANAGERS COLLEGES
1. The quantitative analytics – that we cannot remove from the business environment
2. There is no other tangible benefits apart from the actual improvement which the
organization realizes during the Six Sigma journey.
The Six Sigma methodology is well rooted in statistics and statistical mathematics. Learn
why six standard deviations is worthwhile for your organization to measure
What does it mean to be "Six Sigma"? Six Sigma at many organizations simply means a
measure of quality that strives for near perfection. But the statistical implications of a Six
Sigma program go well beyond the qualitative eradication of customer-perceptible
defects. It's a methodology that is well rooted in mathematics and statistics.
The objective of Six Sigma Quality is to reduce process output variation so that on a long
term basis, which is the customer's aggregate experience with our process over time, this
will result in no more than 3.4 defect Parts Per Million (PPM) opportunities (or 3.4
Defects Per Million Opportunities – DPMO). For a process with only one specification
limit (Upper or Lower), this results in six process standard deviations between the mean
of the process and the customer's specification limit (hence, 6 Sigma). For a process with
two specification limits (Upper and Lower), this translates to slightly more than six
process standard deviations between the mean and each specification limit such that the
total defect rate corresponds to equivalent of six process standard deviations.
In this case study, pharmaceutical developers use the DFSS methodolgy Identify, Design, Optimize,
Verify to find the best formula for masking the bitter taste of…
DFSS Roadmaps
DFSS Project Examples
Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) Articles
Tapping Voice of the Lead User for Design for Six Sigma
Not all average consumers are average, some are “lead users” -- those who have strong needs before
average consumers. If lead users can be identified…
What Is DFSS?
Design for Six Sigma (DFSS), or the Six Sigma DMADV process (Define, Measure, Analyze, Design, Verify),
is an improvement system used to develop new processes…
Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control. Incremental process improvement using Six Sigma
methodology. See DMAIC Methodology
Pronounced (Duh-May-Ick).
DMAIC refers to a data-driven quality strategy for improving processes, and is an integral part of
the company's Six Sigma Quality Initiative. DMAIC is an acronym for five interconnected
phases: Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control.
Each step in the cyclical DMAIC Process is required to ensure the best possible results. The process
steps:
Define the Customer, their Critical to Quality (CTQ) issues, and the Core Business Process
involved.
Define who customers are, what their requirements are for products and services, and what their
expectations are
Collect data from many sources to determine types of defects and metrics
Analyze the data collected and process map to determine root causes of defects and opportunities
for improvement.
Improve the target process by designing creative solutions to fix and prevent problems.
Institutionalize the improvements through the modification of systems and structures (staffing,
training, incentives)
The Six Sigma methodology follows the Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control (DMAIC)
roadmap for process improvement.
The Six Sigma DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) methodology can be
thought of as a roadmap for problem solving and product/process improvement. Most companies
begin implementing Six Sigma using the DMAIC methodology, and later add the DFSS (Design
for Six Sigma, also known as DMADV or IDDOV) methodologies when the organizational
culture and experience level permits. You can read the main differences between DMAIC and
DMADV, but we'll focus on the DMAIC in this article.
While the DMAIC methodology presented below may appear linear and explicitly defined, it
should be noted that an iterative approach may be necessary -- especially for Black Belts and
Green Belts that are new to the tools and techniques that make up DMAIC. For instance, you
may find that upon analyzing your data (Analyze phase) you did not gather enough data to
isolate the root cause of the problem. At this point, you may iterate back to the Measure phase. In
addition, prior knowledge of the tools and techniques is necessary in determining which tools are
useful in each phase. Remember, the appropriate application of tools becomes more critical for
effectiveness than correctness, and you don't need to use all the tools all the time.
D - Define Phase: Define the project goals and customer (internal and external) deliverables.
M - Measure Phase: Measure the process to determine current performance; quantify the problem.
A - Analyze Phase: Analyze and determine the root cause(s) of the defects.
Histogram
Pareto Chart
Time Series/Run Chart
Define Performance Objectives Scatter Plot
Identify Value/Non-Value Added Process Regression Analysis
Steps Cause and Effect/Fishbone Diagram
Identify Sources of Variation 5 Whys
Determine Root Cause(s) Process Map Review and Analysis
Determine Vital Few x's, Y=f(x) Relationship Statistical Analysis
Hypothesis Testing (Continuous and
Discrete)
Non-Normal Data Analysis
The DMAIC methodology should be used when a product or process is in existence at your
company but is not meeting customer specification or is not performing adequately. For DMAIC
milestone reviews, there are certain deliverables, checkpoints, questions and concerns that the
Black Belt and improvement team should be aware of prior to a tollgate/milestone review.
In lieu of or in addition to your Master Black Belt tollgate/milestone preparation review, the
following Six Sigma DMAIC quick reference sheets can help prepare for your milestone review.
Define Phase
Deliverables Of Phase:
Fully trained team is formed, supported, and committed to work on improvement project.
Customers identified and high impact characteristics (CTQs) defined, team charter developed,
business process mapped.
Team Readiness
Customer(s) identified and segmented according to their different needs and requirements.
Data collected and displayed to better understand customer(s) critical needs and requirements.
Team Charter
Project management charter, including business case, problem and goal statements, project
scope, milestones, roles and responsibilities, communication plan.
Completed, verified, and validated high-level 'as is' (not 'should be' or 'could be') business
process map.
Completed SIPOC representation, describing the Suppliers, Inputs, Process, Outputs, and
Customers.
Team Readiness
Who are the improvement project team members, including BBs/Project Leads and
MBBs/Coaches?
Has everyone on the team, including the team leaders, been properly trained (on DMAIC)?
Does the team have regular meetings?
How often are the team meetings?
Is there regularly 100% attendance at the team meetings? If not, have appointed substitutes
attended to preserve cross-functionality and full representation?
If substitutes have been appointed, have they been briefed on the project charter and goals and
received regular communications as to the project's progress to date?
Has the project work been fairly and/or equitably divided and delegated among team members
who are qualified and capable to perform the work? Has everyone contributed?
Are there any constraints known that bear on the ability to perform project work? How is the
team addressing them?
How is the team tracking and documenting its work?
Is the team adequately staffed with the desired cross-functionality? If not, what additional
resources are available to the team?
Team Charter
- Problem Statement: What specifically is the problem? Where does it occur? When does it
occur? What is its extent?
- Goal Statement: What is the goal or target for the improvement team's project? Do the problem
and goal statements meet the SMART criteria (specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and
time-bound)? Has anyone else (internal or external to the organization) attempted to solve this
problem or a similar one before? If so, what knowledge can be leveraged from these previous
efforts? How will the project team and the organization measure complete success for this
project?
- Roles and Responsibilities: What are they for each team member and its leadership? Where is
this documented?
- Project Scope: What are the boundaries of the scope? What is in bounds and what is not? What
is the start point? What is the stop point? How does the project manager ensure against scope
creep? Is the project scope manageable? What constraints exist that might impact the team?
- Milestones: When was the project start date? When is the estimated completion date? Is the
project currently on schedule according to the plan? Has a project plan, Gantt chart, or similar
been developed/completed? How did the project manager receive input to the development of the
plan and the estimated completion dates/times of each activity? Is there a critical path to
complete the project? How will variation in the actual durations of each activity be dealt with to
ensure that the expected project completion date is met?
- Communication Plan: What are the dynamics of the communication plan? What critical
content must be communicated - who, what, when, where, and how? When are meeting minutes
sent out? Who is on the distribution list? How do you keep key subject matter experts in the
loop?
Business Process Mapping
Has a high-level 'as is' process map been completed, verified and validated?
Has a SIPOC diagram been produced describing the Suppliers, Inputs, Process, Outputs, and
Customers?
Is the improvement team aware of the different versions of a process: what they think it is vs.
what it actually is vs. what it should be vs. what it could be?
Is the current 'as is' process being followed? If not, what are the discrepancies?
Are different versions of process maps needed to account for the different types of inputs?
How was the 'as is' process map developed, reviewed, verified and validated?
What tools and roadmaps did you use for getting through the Define phase?
Measure Phase
Deliverables Of Phase:
Key measures identified, data collection planned and executed, process variation displayed and
communicated, performance baselined, sigma level calculated.
Solid data collection plan established that includes measurement systems analysis.
Data collected on key measures that were identified.
What are the key input variables? What the key process variables? What are the key output
variables?
What key measures identified indicate the performance of the business process?
What are the agreed upon definitions of the high impact characteristics (CTQs), defect(s),
unit(s), and opportunities that will figure into the sigma calculations and process capability
metrics?
What charts has the team used to display the components of variation in the process?
What does the chart tell us in terms of variation?
Analyze Phase
Deliverables Of Phase:
Data and process analysis, root cause analysis, quantifying the gap/opportunity.
Checkpoints For Completion:
What does the data say about the performance of the business process?
Did any value-added analysis or 'lean thinking' take place to identify some of the gaps shown on
the 'as is' process map?
Was a detailed process map created to amplify critical steps of the 'as is' business process?
How was the map generated, verified, and validated?
What did the team gain from developing a sub-process map?
What were the crucial 'moments of truth' on the map?
Were there any cycle time improvement opportunities identified from the process analysis?
Were any designed experiments used to generate additional insight into the data analysis?
Did any additional data need to be collected?
What model would best explain the behavior of output variables in relation to input variables?
Improve Phase
Deliverables Of Phase:
Generate (and test) possible solutions, select the best solutions, design implementation plan.
Control Phase
Deliverables Of Phase:
Monitoring Plan
Process Standardization
New process steps, standards, and documentation are ingrained into normal operations.
Documented Procedures
Response Plan
Transfer ownership and knowledge to process owner and process team tasked with the
responsibilities.
Monitoring Plan
Process Standardization
Documented Procedures
Is there documentation that will support the successful operation of the improvement?
Does job training on the documented procedures need to be part of the process team's
education and training?
Have new or revised work instructions resulted?
Are they clear and easy to follow for the operators?
Response Plan
Is a response plan in place for when the input, process, or output measures indicate an 'out-of-
control' condition?
What are the critical parameters to watch?
Does the response plan contain a definite closed loop continual improvement scheme (e.g.,
plan-do-check-act)?
Are suggested corrective/restorative actions indicated on the response plan for known causes to
problems that might surface?
Does a troubleshooting guide exist or is it needed?
What other areas of the organization might benefit from the project team's improvements,
knowledge, and learning?
How might the organization capture best practices and lessons learned so as to leverage
improvements across the business?
What other systems, operations, processes, and infrastructures (hiring practices, staffing,
training, incentives/rewards, metrics/dashboards/scorecards, etc.) need updates, additions,
changes, or deletions in order to facilitate knowledge transfer and improvements?
DMAIC Articles
http://www.isixsigma.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=201&Itemid=27
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Sure you can reduce costs and increase sales in a localized area of a business using the Six Sigma
quality methodology -- and you can probably do it inexpensively by hiring an ex-Motorola or GE
Black Belt. I like to think of that scenario as a "get rich quick" application of Six Sigma. But is it
going to last when a manager is promoted to a different area or leaves the company? Probably
not. If you want to produce a culture shift within your organization, a shift that causes every
employee to think about how their actions impact the customer and to communicate within the
business using a consistent language, it's going to require a resource commitment. It takes money
to save money.
How much financial commitment does Six Sigma require and what magnitude of financial
benefit can you expect to receive? We all have people that we must answer to -- and rhetoric
doesn't pay the bills or keep the stockholders happy (anymore). I was tired of reading web pages
or hearing people say:
"Companies of all types and sizes are in the midst of a quality revolution. GE saved $12 billion over five
years and added $1 to its earnings per share. Honeywell (AlliedSignal) recorded more than $800 million
in savings."
"GE produces annual benefits of over $2.5 billion across the organization from Six Sigma."
"Six Sigma reportedly saved Motorola $15 billion over the last 11 years."
The above quotations may in fact be true, but pulling the numbers out of the context of the
organization's revenues does nothing to help a company figure out if Six Sigma is right for them.
For example, how much can a $10 million or $100 million company expect to save?
I investigated what the companies themselves had to say about their Six Sigma costs and savings
-- I didn't believe anything that was written on third party websites, was estimated by "experts,"
or was written in books on the topic. I reviewed literature and only captured facts found in
annual reports, website pages and presentations found on company websites.
While recent corporate events like the Enron and WorldCom scandals might lead us to believe
that not everything we read in a company's annual report is valid, I am going to provide the
following information based on the assumption that these Six Sigma companies operate with
integrity until proven otherwise.
I investigated Motorola, Allied Signal, GE and Honeywell. I choose these four companies
because they are the companies that invented and refined Six Sigma -- they are the most mature
in their deployments and culture changes. As the Motorola website says, they invented it in 1986.
Allied Signal deployed Six Sigma in 1994, GE in 1995. Honeywell was included because Allied
Signal merged with Honeywell in 1999 (they launched their own initiative in 1998). Many
companies have deployed Six Sigma between the years of GE and Honeywell -- we'll leave those
companies for another article.
GE (NYSE:GE) 1995
Table 2 identifies by company, the yearly revenues, the Six Sigma costs (investment) per year,
where available, and the financial benefits (savings). There are many blanks, especially where
the investment is concerned. I've presented as much information as the companies have publicly
disclosed.
% Revenue % Revenue
Year Revenue ($B) Invested ($B) Savings ($B)
Invested Savings
Motorola
Allied Signal
Honeywell
Ford
Key:
$B = $ Billions, United States
(e) = Estimated, Yearly Revenue 1986-1992 Could Not Be Found
ND = Not Disclosed
Note: Numbers Are Rounded To The Nearest Tenth
Although the complete picture of investment and savings by year is not present, Six Sigma
savings can clearly be significant to a company. The savings as a percentage of revenue vary
from 1.2% to 4.5%. And what we can see from the GE deployment is that a company shouldn't
expect more than a breakeven the first year of implementation. Six Sigma is not a "get rich
quick" methodology. I like to think of it like my retirement savings plan -- Six Sigma is a get
rich slow methodology -- the take-away point being that you will get rich if you plan properly
and execute consistently.
As GE's 1996 annual report states, "It has been estimated that less than Six Sigma quality, i.e.,
the three-to-four Sigma levels that are average for most U.S. companies, can cost a company as
much as 10-15% of its revenues. For GE, that would mean $8-12 billion." With GE's 2001
revenue of $111.6 billion, this would translate into $11.2-16.7 billion of savings. Although $2
billion worth of savings in 1999 is impressive, it appears that even GE hasn't been able to yet
capture the losses due to poor quality -- or maybe they're above the three-to-four Sigma levels
that are the average for most U.S. companies?
In either case, 1.2-4.5% of revenue is significant and should catch the eye of any CEO or CFO.
For a $30 million a year company, that can translate into between $360,000 and $1,350,000 in
bottom-line-impacting savings per year. It takes money to make money. Is investing in Six
Sigma quality, your employees and your organization's culture worth the money? Only you and
your executive leadership team can decide the answer to that question.
References:
1. Motorola Six Sigma Services. Motorola University. 22 July 2002
<http://mu.motorola.com/sigmasplash.htm>.
2. AlliedSignal Inc. 1998 Annual Report. Honeywell Inc. 22 July 2002
<http://www.honeywell.com/investor/otherpdfs/ALD98.pdf>.
3. GE Investor Relations Annual Reports. General Electric Company. 22 July 2002
<http://www.ge.com/company/investor/annreports.htm>.
4. Honeywell Annual Reports. Honeywell Inc. 22 July 2002
<http://investor.honeywell.com/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=HON&script=700>.
5. Better Understand Six Sigma Plus With Honeywell's Special PowerPoint Presentation.
Honeywell Inc. 22 July 2002 <http://www.honeywell.com/sixsigma/page4_1.html>.
6. Quality Digest, "Six Sigma at Ford Revisited", June 2003, p. 30.
<http://www.qualitydigest.com/june03/articles/02_article.shtml>.
In my recollection, two recurring questions have dominated the field of six sigma. The first
inquiry can be described by the global question: “Why 6s and not some other level of
capability?” The second inquiry is more molecular. It can be summarized by the question:
“Where does the 1.5s shift factor come from – and why 1.5 versus some other magnitude?” For
details on this subject, reference: “Harry, M. J. “Resolving the Mysteries of Six Sigma:
Statistical Constructs and Engineering Rationale.” First Edition 2003. Palladyne Publishing.
Phoenix, Arizona. (Note: this particular publication will be available by October 2003). But
until then, we will consider the following thumbnail sketch.
At the onset of six sigma in 1985, this writer was working as an engineer for the Government
Electronics Group of Motorola. By chance connection, I linked up with another engineer by the
name of Bill Smith (originator of the six sigma concept in 1984). At that time, he suggested
Motorola should require 50 percent design margins for all of its key product performance
specifications. Statistically speaking, such a "safety margin" is equivalent to a 6 sigma level of
capability.
When considering the performance tolerance of a critical design feature, he believed a 25 percent
“cushion” was not sufficient for absorbing a sudden shift in process centering. Bill believed the
typical shift was on the order of 1.5s (relative to the target value). In other words, a four sigma
level of capability would normally be considered sufficient, if centered. However, if the process
center was somehow knocked off its central location (on the order of 1.5s), the initial capability
of 4s would be degraded to 4.0s – 1.5s = 2.5s. Of course, this would have a consequential impact
on defects. In turn, a sudden increase in defects would have an adverse effect on reliability. As
should be apparent, such a domino effect would continue straight up the value chain.
Regardless of the shift magnitude, those of us working this issue fully recognized that the initial
estimate of capability will often erode over time in a “very natural way” – thereby increasing the
expected rate of product defects (when considering a protracted period of production).
Extending beyond this, we concluded that the product defect rate was highly correlated to the
long-term process capability, not the short-term capability. Of course, such conclusions were
predicated on the statistical analysis of empirical data gathered on a wide array of electronic
devices.
Thus, we come to understand three things. First, we recognized that the instantaneous
reproducibility of a critical-to-quality characteristic is fully dependent on the “goodness of fit”
between the operating bandwidth of the process and the corresponding bandwidth of the
performance specification. Second, the quality of that interface can be substantively and
consequentially disturbed by process centering error. Of course, both of these factors profoundly
impact long-term capability. Third, we must seek to qualify our critical processes at a 6s level of
short-term capability if we are to enjoy a long-term capbility of 4s.
By further developing these insights through applied research, we were able to greatly extend our
understanding of the many statistical connections between such things as design margin, process
capability, defects, field reliability, customer satisfaction, and economic success.
Six Sigma has evolved over time. The concepts behind Six Sigma can be traced through the
centuries as the method took shape into what it is today.
The roots of Six Sigma as a measurement standard can be traced back to Carl Frederick Gauss
(1777-1855) who introduced the concept of the normal curve. Six Sigma as a measurement
standard in product variation can be traced back to the 1920's when Walter Shewhart showed that
three sigma from the mean is the point where a process requires correction. Many measurement
standards (Cpk, Zero Defects, etc.) later came on the scene but credit for coining the term "Six
Sigma" goes to a Motorola engineer named Bill Smith. (Incidentally, "Six Sigma" is a federally
registered trademark of Motorola).
In the early and mid-1980s with Chairman Bob Galvin at the helm, Motorola engineers decided
that the traditional quality levels -- measuring defects in thousands of opportunities -- didn't
provide enough granularity. Instead, they wanted to measure the defects per million
opportunities. Motorola developed this new standard and created the methodology and needed
cultural change associated with it. Six Sigma helped Motorola realize powerful bottom-line
results in their organization - in fact, they documented more than $16 Billion in savings as a
result of our Six Sigma efforts.
Since then, hundreds of companies around the world have adopted Six Sigma as a way of doing
business. This is a direct result of many of America's leaders openly praising the benefits of Six
Sigma. Leaders such as Larry Bossidy of Allied Signal (now Honeywell), and Jack Welch of
General Electric Company. Rumor has it that Larry and Jack were playing golf one day and Jack
bet Larry that he could implement Six Sigma faster and with greater results at GE than Larry did
at Allied Signal. The results speak for themselves.
Six Sigma has evolved over time. It's more than just a quality system like TQM or ISO. It's a
way of doing business. As Geoff Tennant describes in his book Six Sigma: SPC and TQM in
Manufacturing and Services: "Six Sigma is many things, and it would perhaps be easier to list all
the things that Six Sigma quality is not. Six Sigma can be seen as: a vision; a philosophy; a
symbol; a metric; a goal; a methodology." We couldn't agree more.