Professional Documents
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1
The Premise of This Study
For this analysis, the Organic survey data were compared to the historical
acreage and yield data available through QuickStats 1, also from USDA-
NASS
Not all comparisons were feasible due to
Missing or confidentiality-deleted data points
Likely differences in irrigated vs un-irrigated production in Organic vs Overall
Very poor fits for yield trends
Genetic differences (e.g. oil vs confectionary sunflowers, wild vs normal rice…)
Analysis was conducted for Soybeans, Wheat (winter, spring, and durum),
Corn (grain and silage), Flax, Oats, Barley, Dry Beans, Prosso Millet and
Sorghum
Together these crops total 230 million acres of total US crop acreage and
726,000 Organic acres (0.32%)
3
A Summary of Row Crops Data for Organic and Total
Bushels/Acre
35
plotted at the year for which the
overall trend line was at that level of 30
yield (corrected for 2008 yield
deviation from the trend line) 25
Organic Yield 66% of Average,
Line fit to historic yield data equivalent of 1979 yield, 29
20
year difference
(equation and R2 above)
15
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
5
National Level Data
US Major Row Crops
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre
35 30
25
30
20
25 15
Organic Yield 66% of Average,
equivalent of 1979 yield, 29 10 Organic Yield 47% of Average,
20 equivalent of 1951 yield, 57
year difference 5
year difference
15 0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
1,331 Organic farms, 98.113 acres 484 Organic farms, 93,372 acres
US Corn Yield Trend US Winter Wheat Yield Trend
180 50
y = 0.3088x - 575.21
y = 2.045x - 3953.3 45 2
R = 0.4929
160
2
R = 0.7498
40
140
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre
35
120
30
100
25
Organic Yield 71% of Organic Yield 60% of Average,
80 20
Average, equivalent of 1986.5 equivalent of 1950 yield, 58 year
yield, 21.5 year difference difference
60 15
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
2,146 Organic farms, 143432 acres 875 Organic farms, 202,968 acres
Other Row Crops (1 of 2)
Flaxseed US Oats US
25 70
y = 0.3677x - 675.17
y = 0.2835x - 549.12 2
2 65 R = 0.3479
20 R = 0.4417
60
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre
15
55
10
Organic Yield 83% of Average, 50
equivalent of 1985 yield, 23
5 year difference Organic Yield 86% of Average,
45 equivalent of 1983 yield, 25
year difference
0 40
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
50
CWT/Acre
40 15
30
14
20
Organic Yield 70% of Average, Organic Yield 81% of Average,
13 equivalent of 1976 yield, 32
10 equivalent of 1975 yield, 33
year difference year difference
0 12
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
578 Organic farms, 47,227 acres 127 Organic farms, 12,407 acres
Other Row Crops (2 of 2)
Bushels/Acre
30
Tons/Acre
16
25
14
20
12 15
Organic Yield 80% of Average, 10 Organic Yield 59% of Average,
10 equivalent of 1991 yield, 17year equivalent of 1950 yield, 58
5 year difference
difference
8 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
16 y = 0.3633x - 714.82 90
2
R = 0.1385 80
14 y = 0.5488x - 1028.8
2
70 R = 0.1556
12
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre
60
10
50
8
40
6
30
Organic Yield 71% of Average, Organic Yield 52% of Average,
4 equivalent of 1996 yield, 12 20 equivalent of 1944 yield, 64
2 year difference year difference
10
0 0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Ohio Winter Wheat Yield Trend Michigan Winter Wheat Yield Trend
75 80
y = 0.798x - 1534
70 2 75
R = 0.5711 y = 0.8992x - 1736.9
65 70 2
R = 0.5836
65
60
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre
60
55
55
50 Organic Yield 53% of Average,
equivalent of 1968 yield, 40 50
Organic Yield 77% of Average,
45 year difference
equivalent of 1991 yield, 17
45
year difference
40 40
35 35
30 30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
65
y = 0.572x - 1088.5 50 y = 0.7327x - 1426.6
2
60 R = 0.5467 R2 = 0.5068
40
55
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre
50 30
45
20
40 Organic Yield 74% of Average,
Organic Yield 66% of Average,
equivalent of 1992 yield, 16
equivalent of 1973 yield, 35 10 year difference
35 year difference
30 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
45 50
y = 0.4573x - 872.07
2
y = 0.3825x - 728.25 R = 0.4739
45
40 2
R = 0.2269
40
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre
75
y = 0.703x - 1346.6
65 2
R = 0.4555
Bushels/Acre
55
45
35
North Dakota Spring Wheat Yield Trend South Dakota Spring Wheat Yield Trend
50 50
y = 0.421x - 807.46 45
45 y = 0.6935x - 1352.1
R2 = 0.318 40 2
R = 0.567
Organic Yield 55% 35
40
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre
of Average, 30
equivalent of 1967
35 yield, 41year 25
difference 20
30 Organic Yield 62% of
15
Average, equivalent of 1986
10 yield, 22 year difference
25
5
20 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
50
Bushels/Acre
40
30
20
Organic Yield 72% of Average,
10 equivalent of 1979 yield, 29
year difference
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
45
50 y = 0.4907x - 937.48
y = 0.4784x - 921.27
R2 = 0.5659 40 R2 = 0.5286
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre
45
35
30
40
25
35 Organic Yield 61% of Average,
Organic Yield 81% of Average, 20
equivalent of 1989 yield, 19 year equivalent of 1976 yield, 32 year
difference difference
30 15
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
55 y = 0.8723x - 1708.4
45
y = 0.6919x - 1340.4 R2 = 0.6911
50 2
R = 0.6935
40
45
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre
40 35
35 30
30
Organic Yield 70% of Average, 25 Organic Yield 75% of Average,
25 equivalent of 1987 yield, 21 equivalent of 1996 yield, 13
year difference 20 year difference
20
15 15
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
50 45
y = 0.4107x - 782.98
y = 0.3994x - 757.68
45 R2 = 0.3989
R2 = 0.4023 40
40
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre
35
35
30
30
25
25
Organic Yield 75% of Average, Organic Yield 84% of Average,
20 20
equivalent of 1980 yield, 28 year equivalent of 1992 yield, 16 year
difference difference
15 15
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bushels/Acre
160
150
150
140
140
130
130 Organic Yield 88% of
120 Average, equivalent of 1996 120
Organic Yield 67% of
yield, 12.5 year difference
110 110 Average, equivalent of 1982
yield, 26 year difference
100 100
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bushels/Acre
100 120
80 100
Bushels/Acre
80
110
60
90
40
120
110
100
90
80 Organic Yield 84% of
70 Average, equivalent of 1995
yield, 13 year difference
60
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Tons/Acre
16 16
14 14
12 12
Organic Yield 74% of Average, Organic Yield 71% of Average,
10 equivalent of 1981 yield, 27 10 equivalent of 1983 yield, 25
year difference year difference
8 8
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
18 18
y = 0.2071x - 399.38
2
R = 0.4416
Tons/Acre
16 Tons/Acre 16
14 14
12 12
Organic Yield 84% of Average, Organic Yield 83% of Average,
10 equivalent of 1992 yield, 16 10 equivalent of 1995 yield, 13
year difference year difference
8 8
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Bushels/Acre
25
50
20
40
15
30
20 10
Organic Yield 85% of Average, Organic Yield 89% of Average,
10 equivalent of 1993 yield, 15 5 equivalent of 1995 yield, 13
year difference year difference
0 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
40
25
35 y = 0.3177x - 617.33
y = 0.1401x - 250.69
2
30 2
R = 0.0494 20 R = 0.4752
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre
25
15
20
15 10
Sorghum KS
100
90
80 y = 0.5488x - 1028.8
2
70 R = 0.1556
Bushels/Acre
60
50
40
30
Organic Yield 52% of Average,
20 equivalent of 1944 yield, 64
year difference
10
0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020