You are on page 1of 20

A Comparison of 2008 Organic Row Crop

Yields to Historical Yield Trends

Steve Savage, Ph.D.


2/5/2011

1
The Premise of This Study

In 2008, the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the USDA


(USDA-NASS) conducted a detailed survey of US Organic
agriculture
 The yields (on a per harvested acre basis) for Organic crops are
generally lower than the overall average
 It is difficult to put these yield differences into perspective
For most crops, yields have been increasing steadily over time
based on a wide variety of technical advances
 Some of these advances are available to Organic row crop growers
(conventional breeding gains, equipment improvements…)
 Some of these advances are not available to Organic row crop growers
(new and effective pesticides, precision fertilization technologies, biotech
traits…)
This analysis looks at how Organic row crop yields in 2008 compare
to historical trends in yield as a way to quantify what lower Organic
yields actually “mean” from an agronomic and food supply point of
view
The Analysis Process

For this analysis, the Organic survey data were compared to the historical
acreage and yield data available through QuickStats 1, also from USDA-
NASS
Not all comparisons were feasible due to
 Missing or confidentiality-deleted data points
 Likely differences in irrigated vs un-irrigated production in Organic vs Overall
 Very poor fits for yield trends
 Genetic differences (e.g. oil vs confectionary sunflowers, wild vs normal rice…)

Analysis was conducted for Soybeans, Wheat (winter, spring, and durum),
Corn (grain and silage), Flax, Oats, Barley, Dry Beans, Prosso Millet and
Sorghum
 Together these crops total 230 million acres of total US crop acreage and
726,000 Organic acres (0.32%)

3
A Summary of Row Crops Data for Organic and Total

% Organic % Organic % Organic Total US Acres


Crops Acres Production Value x 1000
Rye 3.43 3.12 3.35 269
Flaxseed 4.11 2.79 5.42 340
Proso Millet 2.11 1.50 2.95 460
Oats 2.94 2.52 3.19 1,400
Dry Edible Beans 0.86 0.69 0.93 1,445
Durum Wheat 0.86 0.51 0.96 2,574
Barley 1.25 0.88 1.18 3,779
Corn Silage 0.42 0.33 5,965
Sorghum 0.11 0.05 0.09 7,271
Spring Wheat 0.69 0.46 0.83 13,517
Winter Wheat 0.51 0.31 0.58 39,608
Soybeans 0.13 0.09 0.17 74,681
Corn 0.18 0.13 0.23 78,570
Row Crops Above 0.32 0.18 0.32 229,879
Methodology and Key
Key (for all subsequent slides as well) US Soybean Yield Trend
50
Annual overall yields over time
45 y = 0.4993x - 960.02
2
2008 overall yield from region/crop R = 0.7606
40
2008 Organic yield for region/crop

Bushels/Acre
35
plotted at the year for which the
overall trend line was at that level of 30
yield (corrected for 2008 yield
deviation from the trend line) 25
Organic Yield 66% of Average,
Line fit to historic yield data equivalent of 1979 yield, 29
20
year difference
(equation and R2 above)
15
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

In this case, the US Organic soy


yield in 2008 was equivalent to that
from 1979 or 29 years earlier. This
is adjusted for the fact that the
overall yield was below trend line in
2008

5
National Level Data
US Major Row Crops

US Soybean Yield Trend Spring Wheat US


50 50
45
45 y = 0.4993x - 960.02
2
R = 0.7606 40
y = 0.3618x - 687.08
40 35 R2 = 0.3567

Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre

35 30
25
30
20

25 15
Organic Yield 66% of Average,
equivalent of 1979 yield, 29 10 Organic Yield 47% of Average,
20 equivalent of 1951 yield, 57
year difference 5
year difference
15 0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

1,331 Organic farms, 98.113 acres 484 Organic farms, 93,372 acres
US Corn Yield Trend US Winter Wheat Yield Trend
180 50
y = 0.3088x - 575.21
y = 2.045x - 3953.3 45 2
R = 0.4929
160
2
R = 0.7498
40
140
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre

35
120
30
100
25
Organic Yield 71% of Organic Yield 60% of Average,
80 20
Average, equivalent of 1986.5 equivalent of 1950 yield, 58 year
yield, 21.5 year difference difference
60 15
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

2,146 Organic farms, 143432 acres 875 Organic farms, 202,968 acres
Other Row Crops (1 of 2)

Flaxseed US Oats US
25 70
y = 0.3677x - 675.17
y = 0.2835x - 549.12 2
2 65 R = 0.3479
20 R = 0.4417

60

Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre

15
55
10
Organic Yield 83% of Average, 50
equivalent of 1985 yield, 23
5 year difference Organic Yield 86% of Average,
45 equivalent of 1983 yield, 25
year difference
0 40
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

85 Organic farms, 13,958 acres 1,040 Organic farms, 41,016 acres


Barley US Dry Edible Beans US
80 18
y = 0.1032x - 190.18
70 y = 0.5938x - 1127.1 R2 = 0.529
2 17
R = 0.5775
60
16
Bushels/Acre

50
CWT/Acre
40 15

30
14
20
Organic Yield 70% of Average, Organic Yield 81% of Average,
13 equivalent of 1976 yield, 32
10 equivalent of 1975 yield, 33
year difference year difference
0 12
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

578 Organic farms, 47,227 acres 127 Organic farms, 12,407 acres
Other Row Crops (2 of 2)

Corn For Silage US Durum Wheat US


22 50
45
20
40
y = 0.2024x - 388.58 y = 0.2521x - 470.52
18 2
R = 0.6621 35 2
R = 0.1633

Bushels/Acre
30
Tons/Acre

16
25
14
20

12 15
Organic Yield 80% of Average, 10 Organic Yield 59% of Average,
10 equivalent of 1991 yield, 17year equivalent of 1950 yield, 58
5 year difference
difference
8 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

664 Organic farms, 24,871 acres 40 Organic farms, 22,038 acres


Prosso Millet US Sorghum US
18 100

16 y = 0.3633x - 714.82 90
2
R = 0.1385 80
14 y = 0.5488x - 1028.8
2
70 R = 0.1556
12
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre

60
10
50
8
40
6
30
Organic Yield 71% of Average, Organic Yield 52% of Average,
4 equivalent of 1996 yield, 12 20 equivalent of 1944 yield, 64
2 year difference year difference
10
0 0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

42 Organic farms, 9,698 acres 46 Organic farms, 7,797 acres


State Level Data
Winter Wheat (1 of 2)

Ohio Winter Wheat Yield Trend Michigan Winter Wheat Yield Trend
75 80
y = 0.798x - 1534
70 2 75
R = 0.5711 y = 0.8992x - 1736.9
65 70 2
R = 0.5836
65
60

Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre

60
55
55
50 Organic Yield 53% of Average,
equivalent of 1968 yield, 40 50
Organic Yield 77% of Average,
45 year difference
equivalent of 1991 yield, 17
45
year difference
40 40
35 35
30 30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

68 Organic farms, 2,770 acres 75 Organic farms,4,982 acres


New York Winter Wheat Yield Trend North Dakota Winter Wheat Yield Trend
70 60

65
y = 0.572x - 1088.5 50 y = 0.7327x - 1426.6
2
60 R = 0.5467 R2 = 0.5068
40
55
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre

50 30

45
20
40 Organic Yield 74% of Average,
Organic Yield 66% of Average,
equivalent of 1992 yield, 16
equivalent of 1973 yield, 35 10 year difference
35 year difference

30 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

44 Organic farms,2,417 acres 12 Organic farms,3,081 acres


Winter Wheat (2 of 2)

Montana Wheat Yield Trend Utah Wheat Yield Trend


50 55

45 50
y = 0.4573x - 872.07
2
y = 0.3825x - 728.25 R = 0.4739
45
40 2
R = 0.2269
40

Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre

35 Organic Yield 39% of Average,


equivalent of 1946 yield, 62 year 35
30 difference
30
25
25
Organic Yield 39% of Average,
20 20 equivalent of 1946 yield, 62 year
difference
15 15
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

30 Organic farms, 16,815 acres 29 Organic farms, 36,829 acres


Wisconsin Winter Wheat Yield Trend
85

75
y = 0.703x - 1346.6
65 2
R = 0.4555
Bushels/Acre

55

45

35

Organic Yield 57% of Average,


25
equivalent of 1967 yield, 57 year
difference
15
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

81 Organic farms, 3,032 acres


Spring Wheat

North Dakota Spring Wheat Yield Trend South Dakota Spring Wheat Yield Trend
50 50

y = 0.421x - 807.46 45
45 y = 0.6935x - 1352.1
R2 = 0.318 40 2
R = 0.567
Organic Yield 55% 35
40
Bushels/Acre

Bushels/Acre
of Average, 30
equivalent of 1967
35 yield, 41year 25
difference 20
30 Organic Yield 62% of
15
Average, equivalent of 1986
10 yield, 22 year difference
25
5
20 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

41 Organic farms, 6,783 acres 92 Organic farms, 20,867 acres


Spring Wheat MN
70
y = 0.4615x - 878.5
60 2
R = 0.205

50
Bushels/Acre

40

30

20
Organic Yield 72% of Average,
10 equivalent of 1979 yield, 29
year difference
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

113 Organic farms, 9,858 acres


Soybeans (1 of 2)

Indiana Soybean Yield Trend Missouri Soybean Yield Trend


55 50

45
50 y = 0.4907x - 937.48
y = 0.4784x - 921.27
R2 = 0.5659 40 R2 = 0.5286

Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre

45
35

30
40

25
35 Organic Yield 61% of Average,
Organic Yield 81% of Average, 20
equivalent of 1989 yield, 19 year equivalent of 1976 yield, 32 year
difference difference
30 15
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

11 Organic farms, 593 acres 18 Organic farms, 895 acres


Nebraska Soybean Yield Trend New York Soybean Yield Trend
60 50

55 y = 0.8723x - 1708.4
45
y = 0.6919x - 1340.4 R2 = 0.6911
50 2
R = 0.6935
40
45
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre

40 35

35 30
30
Organic Yield 70% of Average, 25 Organic Yield 75% of Average,
25 equivalent of 1987 yield, 21 equivalent of 1996 yield, 13
year difference 20 year difference
20

15 15
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

63 Organic farms, 5,828 acres 92 Organic farms, 6,775 acres


Soybeans (2 of 2)

Ohio Soybean Yield Trend Pennsylvania Soybean Yield Trend


55 50

50 45
y = 0.4107x - 782.98
y = 0.3994x - 757.68
45 R2 = 0.3989
R2 = 0.4023 40
40

Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre

35
35
30
30
25
25
Organic Yield 75% of Average, Organic Yield 84% of Average,
20 20
equivalent of 1980 yield, 28 year equivalent of 1992 yield, 16 year
difference difference
15 15
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

105 Organic farms, 5,790 acres 54 Organic farms, 1,386 acres


Corn (1 of 2)

California Corn Yield Trend Nebraska Corn Yield Trend


200 190
190 y = 1.6931x - 3216.7 180
R2 = 0.8008
180 170
y = 2.0048x - 3866
170
160 R2 = 0.723
Bushels/Acre

Bushels/Acre
160
150
150
140
140
130
130 Organic Yield 88% of
120 Average, equivalent of 1996 120
Organic Yield 67% of
yield, 12.5 year difference
110 110 Average, equivalent of 1982
yield, 26 year difference
100 100
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

8 Organic farms, 1,751 acres 74 Organic farms, 8,991 acres


South Dakota Corn Yield Trend Wisconsin Corn Yield Trend
160 180

140 y = 2.5427x - 4978.6 160


y = 1.7286x - 3326.3
R2 = 0.7732 2
R = 0.609
120 140
Bushels/Acre

Bushels/Acre
100 120

80 100

60 Organic Yield 68% of 80 Organic Yield 65% of


Average, equivalent of 1992 Average, equivalent of 1979
yield, 16 year difference yield, 29 year difference
40 60
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

30 Organic farms, 2,694 acres 493 Organic farms, 24,304 acres


Corn (2 of 2)

Michigan Corn Yield Trend North Dakota Corn Yield Trend


170 140
y = 2.1605x - 4217
2
120 R = 0.6918
150
y = 1.744x - 3364.8
2
R = 0.678 100
130
Bushels/Acre

Bushels/Acre
80
110
60
90
40

70 Organic Yield 75% of Organic Yield 47% of


20 Average, equivalent of 1978
Average, equivalent of 1988
yield, 20 year difference yield, 30 year difference
50 0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

140 Organic farms, 13,748 acres 12 Organic farms, 1,189 acres


New York Corn Yield Trend
160
150
140
y = 1.5335x - 2951.7
130 2
R = 0.6945
Bushels/Acre

120

110
100
90
80 Organic Yield 84% of
70 Average, equivalent of 1995
yield, 13 year difference
60
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

143 Organic farms, 10,612 acres


Corn For Silage

Corn For Silage NY Corn For Silage IA


22 22
y = 0.2327x - 447.38
2
20 20 R = 0.5294
y = 0.1626x - 309.07
18 2
18
R = 0.66
Tons/Acre

Tons/Acre
16 16

14 14

12 12
Organic Yield 74% of Average, Organic Yield 71% of Average,
10 equivalent of 1981 yield, 27 10 equivalent of 1983 yield, 25
year difference year difference
8 8
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

87 Organic farms, 2,995 acres 47 Organic farms, 904acres


Corn For Silage IN Corn For Silage MN
22 22
y = 0.2327x - 447.38
2
20 R = 0.5294 20

18 18
y = 0.2071x - 399.38
2
R = 0.4416
Tons/Acre

16 Tons/Acre 16

14 14

12 12
Organic Yield 84% of Average, Organic Yield 83% of Average,
10 equivalent of 1992 yield, 16 10 equivalent of 1995 yield, 13
year difference year difference
8 8
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

26 Organic farms, 304 acres 63 Organic farms, 2,998 acres


Other Crops and the State Level (1 of 2)

Barley PA Durum Wheat MT


90 40
y = 0.2355x - 445.11
80 y = 0.7367x - 1404.4 35 2
2 R = 0.1067
R = 0.7096
70 30
60
Bushels/Acre

Bushels/Acre
25
50
20
40
15
30

20 10
Organic Yield 85% of Average, Organic Yield 89% of Average,
10 equivalent of 1993 yield, 15 5 equivalent of 1995 yield, 13
year difference year difference
0 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

25 Organic farms, 499 acres 22 Organic farms, 19,604 acres


Durum Wheat ND Flax ND
45 30

40
25
35 y = 0.3177x - 617.33
y = 0.1401x - 250.69
2
30 2
R = 0.0494 20 R = 0.4752
Bushels/Acre
Bushels/Acre

25
15
20

15 10

10 Organic Yield 67% of Average, Organic Yield 68% of Average,


5
equivalent of 1935 yield, 58 equivalent of 1987 yield, 21
5
year difference year difference
0 0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

11 Organic farms, 1,589 acres 59 Organic farms, 12,203 acres


Other Crops and the State Level (2 of 2)

Sorghum KS
100
90
80 y = 0.5488x - 1028.8
2
70 R = 0.1556
Bushels/Acre

60
50
40
30
Organic Yield 52% of Average,
20 equivalent of 1944 yield, 64
year difference
10
0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

19 Organic farms, 2,401 acres

You might also like