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 :      

«Risk Analysis», forthcomingMilan M. irkovi

Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade,

Volgina 7, 11160 Belgrade-74, Serbia

E-mail:

mcirkovic@aob.rsAnders Sandberg

Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School,Oxford University, Oxford, UK E-mail:

anders.sandberg@philosophy.ox.ac.uk Nick Bostrom

Future of Humanity Institute Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School,Oxford University, UK E-mail:

nick.bostrom@philosophy.ox.ac.uk : ..dmitry.borisoglebsky@gmail.com: ..:http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/anthropicshadow.pdf           (antropic bias ±      «»    ,           ± ..)       .  ,      / ,    /-,    ,   .      ,         .              .



 :

 ,  , , ,  ,  ,  ,  ,   .

1. :     



     ,    ,   .   ,     ,     ;          .         ,  ,     [1-6].    , 













(existential risks -



),          ,        [7].  



    ,  10- ()     ,    -   ,    .



  



[7]. ,   ,    .  : (1) 



(   , ,   ,  , -,    ); (2)



( ,  ,  , ); (3) 



,     ( ,    ).,     



[8].       ,    



      

.          ,     ,   ,   ,   .  ,         



. ,          .

        , . Barrow and Tipler; Balashov;and Bostrom [56-58].

   «»       ,       .    ,          



. ,            .

. «»   

        :

    

   

n j j jiii

 ¡ ¢  ¢  ¡ ¢  ¢ ¡  ¢

|||,(1)

 

B P

    

, 

 

E B P

±   

 

.         .       ,    . ,   ,        .



    ,      .  B

, B

, , B

      ,    ;    :             10 20   

», :   

102



105

      10  



,      ».  :     , ±        [9].



,        , ±      .  . 1    :

±     ,

±     .   ,   : (1)  , (2)     (3)     .





 ,  ,  

±    , 

     .

  ,    ,  

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 [59].

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anthropicshadow2

Мы описываем значительные практические последствия от принятия в расчет антропного искажения (antropic bias – этот термин происходит от термина «антропный принцип» и описывает систематическую ошибку, возникающую в результате неучёта изменения числа наблюдателей в результате некоторых событий… (More)

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Category:	Uncategorized.
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Upload Date:	02/08/2011
Copyright:	Attribution Non-commercial
Tags:	Риски антропный принцип глобальные катастрофы (more tags) Риски антропный принцип глобальные катастрофы вулканы (fewer)

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