Lecture Notes by
Dr. Abhijit Kar Gupta
Probability theory and applications
For randomlyoccurring events, we would like to know how many times we get a desired resultout of total trials. This means we would like to know the fraction of favourable events or trails.Suppose, we flip a coin a few number of times. We may count how many times there is a ³Head´or a ³Tail´ out of all the flips.Let,
= No. of favourable events and
= Total no. of events.
= fraction of favourable events. We can also say this is relative frequency in the usuallanguage of Statistics. Now, if we do the trials a large number of times, this ratio
tends to a fixed value specific to theevent. This is the concept of probability. Note:Total no. of trials is also called µsample space¶ when we are drawing samples out of totalµpopulation¶. As the no. of trials is increased, the sample space becomes bigger.
efinition of Probability:
robability is the ratio of number of favourable events to the total number of events, provided thetotal number of events is very large (actually infinity).
(infinity).So by definition,
is a fraction between 0 and 1 :
No favourable outcome.
All the outcomes are in favour.We can also think in the following way:
probability of occurring an event,
probabilityof not occurring the event. Since, either the event will occur or not occur, we must write:Therefore, we have
.Example #1:In a coin toss, we know from our experience,