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Santa Clara County Real Estate Report - Feburary 2011

Santa Clara County Real Estate Report - Feburary 2011

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Published by Gwen Wang

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Published by: Gwen Wang on Feb 11, 2011
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02/11/2011

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local market trends
The Real Estate Report
S
ANTA
C
LARA
C
OUNTY
 
I
N
 
THE
 
CONDO
 
MARKET
the median price fell to its lowest level since March2009: $275,000. The median price was down15.9% year-over-year. The average price was alsodown 12.6% year-over-year.Condos sales, while down from December, wereup for the first time year-over-year since August:0.5%.Pending condo sales were up for the first timesince July: 8.9%.Inventory increased for the eighth month in a row:up 40.4% year-over-year.
M
ORE
 
STATISTICS
Year-over-year, home inventory was up for theseventh month in a row: 15.5%.Pending inventory was down for the third month ina row: 4.9%.The sales price to list price ratio gained 0.3 of apoint to 98.8%. This after dropping for the previouseight months.Prices for single-family, re-sales homes in SantaClara County fell for the third month in a row inJanuary, both month-over-month and year-over-year.The median price was off 0.4% year-over-year,while the average price dropped 1.4%. This is after thirteen straight months of price appreciation.
H
OME
 
SALES
dropped to their lowest level since February. But,were up year-over-year for the first time since May.
S
ALES
 
MOMENTUM
stopped its slide in January. While still negative,sales momentum rose 2 points and is now at –6%.Our momentum stats are calculated using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. Bycomparing this year’s 12-month moving average tolast year’s, we get a percentage showing marketmomentum.
P
ENDING
 
MOMENTUM
a harbinger of future sales, while still positive, hasalso been trending downward. Last month the num-ber was +18%.
Gwen Wang | Gwen.Wang@kw.com | (650) 454-8568
Gwen Wang
Prices Continue to Decline
F
EBRUARY
/M
 ARCH
2011
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.For complete information on a particular neighbor-hood or property, call.
Keller Williams Realty
505 Hamilton Ave., Ste. 100Palo Alto, CA 94301(650) 454-8568(415) 225-4936Gwen.Wang@kw.comhttp://homes-for-sale-PaloAlto-today.com
http://www.MenloRealEstate.com
 
DRE #01393647
 
Jan 11Dec 10Jan 10
Median Price:530,000$ 560,000$ 532,075$  Average Price:660,977$ 693,064$ 670,549$ Home Sales:640900564Inventory:2,0071,9781,738Sale/List Price Ratio:98.8%98.5%101.3%Days on Market:666147Days of Inventory:946692
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Inside This Issue
>
L
OCAL
M
 ARKET
T
RENDS
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>
M
ORTGAGE
R
 ATE
O
UTLOOK
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2
 
>
H
OME
S
TATISTICS
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2
 
>
F
ORECLOSURE
S
TATS
........................
3
 
>
C
ONDO
S
TATISTICS
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3
 
>
 A
NNUAL
T
 ABLES
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4
 
-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%06FMAMJJASOND07FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASOND11
Santa Clara County Homes:
Sales MomentumSalesPendingsMedian
© 2010 rereport.com
 
Page 2
The Real Estate Report
Mortgage Rate Outlook 
Feb. 4 2011
--HSH.com's overall mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) --found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased by another five basispoints, holding now at an average 5.17%. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs, a considerable and crucialpart of the first-time homebuying market, moved upby two more basis points (.02%) to finish the week at4.79%. Borrowers looking for an alternative to thebenchmark 30-year FRM might consider a 5/1 Hybrid ARM, which is available at an relatively inexpensive3.83% for the first five years, up three basis pointsfrom last week.We have been seeing an accumulation of improvingeconomic news, some of which suggests that theeconomic gears are starting to become more fullyengaged, with a more robust recovery set to bloombefore too much more time has passed.Personal incomes rose by 0.4% in December. Wagesincreased by 0.3%, while "transfer payments" in theform of government supports and such provided therest of the gain. With the change to Social Securitywithholding putting a few more dollars in each pay-check, some additional spending should occur, pro-vided rising gasoline prices don't eat all of it up. Per-sonal outlays increased by 0.7%, driving down thesavings rate a little to 5.3%. Over the past year, in-comes have risen by 3.8% while outgo climbed by4.1%, all without most consumers taking on newdebt. An improving economy is making investors moreinterested in riskier investments with greater potential(i.e. the stock market) at the expense of safe-havenones. As such, stock prices are rising and bondyields are following, and mortgage rates follow bondyields to a greater or lesser degree.Market conditions make it unsurprising to see a de-cline in construction spending. The 2.5% decline inoutlays for December was across the board, drivendown by a 4.1% decline in residential outlays, a 0.5%slip in commercial spending and a 2.8% did in publicworks projects.Mortgage rates are expected to move a little higher,probably a handful of basis points, perhaps as muchas ten.
CitiesMedianAverageSalesPendInvenDOISP/LPMedAveSales Pend2Inven
County530,000$ 660,977$ 6401,7132,0079498.8%-0.4%-1.4%13.5%-4.9%15.5%Campbell669,000$ 765,635$ 1728478397.1%2.1%16.3%54.5%-20.0%9.3%Cupertino1,109,000$ 1,080,860$ 1229338398.1%-6.6%-7.8%-7.7%38.1%-13.2Gilroy416,500$ 446,555$ 3410913311799.5%9.6%0.3%17.2%-17.4%51.1%Los Altos1,450,000$ 1,463,890$ 9183812798.7%-0.9%-3.3%-35.7%-14.3%-29.6Los Altos Hills2,775,000$ 3,517,500$ 464130892.6%42.3%53.3%0.0%-14.3%-16.3Los Gatos1,072,500$ 1,173,770$ 303510710796.7%8.9%-4.3%150.0%40.0%15.1%Milpitas437,000$ 473,639$ 1853488097.4%-4.1%-7.5%-30.8%-26.4%50.0%Monte Sereno1,375,000$ 1,375,000$ 1611330100.0%-75.0%-75.0%0.0%0.0%-31.3Morgan Hill425,000$ 506,500$ 196713220896.3%-28.0%-32.8%26.7%1.5%25.7%Mountain View898,000$ 1,031,730$ 1118328796.7%3.5%18.3%-38.9%-18.2%-13.5Palo Alto1,220,250$ 1,309,020$ 16284075101.1%-12.8%-8.2%-23.8%12.0%-38.5San Jose461,800$ 521,409$ 3891,1421,0598299.4%-3.9%1.1%15.8%-4.1%23.7%Santa Clara550,000$ 567,552$ 27619210299.2%-3.3%2.0%0.0%-3.2%109.1%Saratoga1,500,000$ 1,678,080$ 13266815795.9%4.9%-3.4%62.5%13.0%-8.1%Sunnyvale780,000$ 722,366$ 3259716798.0%20.7%3.8%28.0%-1.7%-4.1%
Single-Family Homes% Change from Year Before
Santa Clara County - January 2011
PricesPrices
1003005007009001,1001,300$100$300$500$700$900$1,100$1,30006FMAMJJASOND07FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASOND11
   S   i  n  g   l  e  -   f  a  m   i   l  y   H  o  m  e   S  a   l  e  s   M  e   d   i  a  n   &   A  v  e  r  a  g  e   P  r   i  c  e  s
Santa Clara County Homes
- Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
 
3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%01-0504-0507-0510-0501-0604-0607-0610-0601-0704-0707-0710-0701-0804-0807-0810-0801-0904-0907-0910-0901-1004-1007-1010-10
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
The chart above shows the Nationalmonthly average for 30-year fixedrate mortgages as compiled byHSH.com. The average includes mort-gages of all sizes, including conforming,"expanded conforming," and jumbo.
 
Table Definitions _______________ 
Median Price
The price at which 50% of priceswere higher and 50%were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by thenumber of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or theprice paid for the property divided bythe asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how manydays it would take to sell all theproperty for sale at the current rateof sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell thathasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number of properties actively forsale as of the last day of the month.
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure proc-ess, in Santa Clara County declined 21.85% in Decem-ber from the year before. The 683 notices filed in De-cember were the lowest number filed in the past thir-teen months.Unfortunately, notices of sale, which set the date andtime of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's finalnotice before sale, while down 1.5% year-over-year,spiked 18.3% from November. After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there areonly three possible outcomes. First, the sale can becancelled for reasons that include a successful loanmodification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-ments. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, thebank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically
CitiesMedianAverageSalesPendInvenDOISP/LPMedAveSales Pend2Inven
County275,000$ 325,958$ 223785955128101.3%-15.9%-12.6%0.5%8.9%40.4%Campbell577,000$ 514,000$ 3164141099.6%45.7%26.5%-50.0%-15.8%64.0%Cupertino758,000$ 720,667$ 3191717095.1%6.8%9.3%-40.0%90.0%-39.3%Gilroy180,446$ 180,446$ 287105100.0%-9.8%-18.6%-33.3%14.3%40.0%Los Altos825,000$ 825,000$ 23812098.4%-1.5%-1.5%0.0%-70.0%-20.0%Los Gatos515,000$ 587,500$ 31135350100.1%-23.7%-13.5%-40.0%10.0%-27.1%Milpitas232,000$ 246,875$ 8474115497.5%-38.1%-24.7%14.3%14.6%95.2%Morgan Hill227,000$ 234,733$ 614136598.0%-19.1%-16.3%200.0%7.7%62.5%Mountain View479,000$ 480,333$ 9285819397.8%-23.7%-19.7%-35.7%-24.3%61.1%Palo Alto568,000$ 634,200$ 5152012096.5%-25.8%-25.3%0.0%114.3%-9.1%San Jose220,000$ 266,104$ 14753356311598.7%-18.5%-14.0%-0.7%10.6%49.7%Santa Clara258,000$ 298,200$ 5528349898.5%-30.3%-19.0%-66.7%4.0%84.4%Saratoga474,500$ 474,500$ 2269096.9%n/an/an/an/an/aSunnyvale480,720$ 456,307$ 28376368120.8%17.2%0.2%180.0%15.6%34.0%
Santa Clara County - January 2011
Condos/Townhomes% Change from Year Before
PricesPrices
100150200250300350400450500550$100$150$200$250$300$350$400$450$500$550$60006FMAMJJASOND07FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASOND11
   C  o  n   d  o   S  a   l  e  s   M  e   d   i  a  n   &   A  v  e  r  a  g  e   P  r   i  c  e  s
Santa Clara County Condos
-Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
T
HE
S
TATE
 
OF
F
ORECLOSURE
 
-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%
 
06FMAMJ JASOND07FMAMJJ ASOND08FMAMJJ ASOND09FMAMJ JASOND10FMAMJJ ASOND11
Santa Clara County Homes:
Year-Over-Year Median Price Change
Page 3
an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, theproperty will be sold to the third party; if not, it will goback to the bank and become part of that bank's REOinventory.In December, cancellations far outweighed the other alternatives. There were 380 cancellations to 189 backto bank and 46 third party sales.The good news is that the total number of homes thathave had a notice of default filed declined by 19.5% inDecember compared to December 2009. Also, the total number of homes scheduled for sale hasdeclined by 19.9%.But, alas, the number of homes owned by the bankrose 19.4%.

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