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San Mateo County Real Esetate Market Update - Feburary 2011

San Mateo County Real Esetate Market Update - Feburary 2011

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Published by: Gwen Wang on Feb 11, 2011
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02/11/2011

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The Real Estate Report
local market trends
S
AN
M
ATEO
C
OUNTY
 
Keller Williams Realty
505 Hamilton Ave., Ste. 100Palo Alto, CA 94301(650) 454-8568(415) 225-4936Gwen.Wang@kw.comhttp://www.MenloRealEstate.comhttp://homes-for-sale-PaloAlto-today.com
DRE #01393647
Gwen Wang
 
Gwen Wang | Gwen.Wang@kw.com | (650) 454-8568
 
Jan 11 Dec 10 Jan 10
Median Price:587,500$ 720,000$ 643,500$  Average Price:786,509$ 963,675$ 831,163$ Home Sales:232369218Inventory:1,006981775Sale/List Price Ratio:97.5%97.6%99.3%Days on Market:636561Days of Inventory:13080107
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%06FMAMJJASOND07FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASOND11
San Mateo County Homes:
Sales MomentumSalesPendingMedian
© 2010 rereport.com
P
ENDING
 
MOMENTUM
a harbinger of future sales, while still positive,has also been trending downward. Last monththe number was +17%.
M
ORE
 
STATISTICS
Year-over-year, home inventory was up for theninth month in a row: 29.8%.The sales price to list price ratio continuedslipping last month, down 0.1 of a point to97.5%.Pending sales were down for the sixth monthin a row: 6.9% year-over-year.
I
N
 
THE
 
CONDO
 
MARKET
the median price was off 23.6% compared tolast January.The average price was down 20.8% year-over-year.Condos sales reversed course and were up39.7% year-over-year, seven straight monthsof declines.Prices for single-family, re-sales homes in SanMateo County fell for the fourth month in a rowin January, year-over-year.The median price was off 8.7% compared tolast January. This is after eleven straightmonths of price appreciation. The averageprice dropped 5.3% year-over-year, after ap-preciating fifteen out of the past sixteenmonths.
H
OME
 
SALES
rose 6.4% compared to last January.
S
ALES
 
MOMENTUM
continued to fall last month and is now at 3%,down from the current peak of 11% reached in August.Our momentum stats are calculated using a12-month moving average to eliminate sea-sonality. By comparing this year’s 12-monthmoving average to last year’s, we get a per-centage showing market momentum.
Prices Decline to Start the Year
Pending sales were up for the second monthin a row: 0.6% year-over-year.Inventory increased for the ninth month in arow: up 41.9% year-over-year.Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are thesame. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call.
F
EBRUARY
/M
 ARCH
2011
Inside This Issue
>
L
OCAL
M
 ARKET
T
RENDS
.....................
1
 
>
M
ORTGAGE
R
 ATE
O
UTLOOK
...............
2
 
>
H
OME
S
TATISTICS
..............................
2
 
>
F
ORECLOSURE
S
TATS
........................
3
 
>
C
ONDO
S
TATISTICS
............................
3
 
>
 A
NNUAL
T
 ABLES
.................................
4
 
 
The Real Estate Report
CitiesMedianAverageSalesPendInvenDOISP/LPMedAveSales Pend2Inven
County,,,.%-.%-.%.%-.%.% Atherton,,,,.%.%-.%-.%.%-.Belmont745,000$ 769,615$ 1216287096.5%-17.2%-18.0%33.3%-15.8%12.0%Burlingame,,,.%-.%-.%-.%-.%-.Daly City,,.%-.%-.%.%-.%.%El Granada602,000$ 602,000$ 211827098.8%n/an/an/an/an/aEast Palo Alto,,.%.%-.%.%-.%.%Foster City,,.%-.%-.%.%-.%.%Hillsborough2,607,500$ 2,665,830$ 6184120595.0%-23.3%-17.0%50.0%38.5%-10.9Half Moon Bay,,.%-.%-.%.%.%.%Millbrae,,.%-.%-.%.%-.%.%Menlo Park851,000$ 1,067,100$ 2221587999.8%12.3%55.8%83.3%-16.0%0.0%Montara,,.%-.%-.%.%n/a.%Moss Beach,,.%.%.%-.%n/a-.Pacifica510,000$ 534,633$ 15316513097.3%-13.3%-14.6%-11.8%29.2%41.3%Portola Valley2,000,000$ 2,000,000$ 231928592.9%n/an/an/an/an/aRedwood City,,.%-.%-.%-.%-.%.%Redwood Shores-$ -$ 00000.0%n/an/an/an/an/aSan Bruno559,975$ 511,695$ 10235416298.4%5.7%-8.0%-16.7%-43.9%145.5%San Carlos,,.%-.%-.%.%-.%.%San Mateo,,.%-.%-.%.%-.%.%S. San Francisco509,000$ 493,057$ 14476113198.5%-4.0%-9.8%-17.6%27.0%48.8%Woodside,,,,.%n/an/an/an/an/a
San Mateo County - January 2011
Single-Family Homes% Change from Year Before
PricesPrices
Page 2
Mortgage Rate Outlook 
 
3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%01-0504-0507-0510-0501-0604-0607-0610-0601-0704-0707-0710-0701-0804-0807-0810-0801-0904-0907-0910-0901-1004-1007-1010-10
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
The chart above shows the Nationalmonthly average for 30-year fixedrate mortgages as compiled byHSH.com. The average includes mort-gages of all sizes, including conforming,"expanded conforming," and jumbo.
Feb. 4 2011
--HSH.com's overall mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) --found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased by another five basispoints, holding now at an average 5.17%. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs, a considerable and crucialpart of the first-time homebuying market, moved upby two more basis points (.02%) to finish the week at4.79%. Borrowers looking for an alternative to thebenchmark 30-year FRM might consider a 5/1 Hybrid ARM, which is available at an relatively inexpensive3.83% for the first five years, up three basis pointsfrom last week.We have been seeing an accumulation of improvingeconomic news, some of which suggests that theeconomic gears are starting to become more fullyengaged, with a more robust recovery set to bloombefore too much more time has passed.Personal incomes rose by 0.4% in December. Wagesincreased by 0.3%, while "transfer payments" in theform of government supports and such provided therest of the gain. With the change to Social Securitywithholding putting a few more dollars in each pay-check, some additional spending should occur, pro-vided rising gasoline prices don't eat all of it up. Per-sonal outlays increased by 0.7%, driving down thesavings rate a little to 5.3%. Over the past year, in-comes have risen by 3.8% while outgo climbed by4.1%, all without most consumers taking on newdebt. An improving economy is making investors moreinterested in riskier investments with greater potential(i.e. the stock market) at the expense of safe-havenones. As such, stock prices are rising and bondyields are following, and mortgage rates follow bondyields to a greater or lesser degree.Market conditions make it unsurprising to see a de-cline in construction spending. The 2.5% decline inoutlays for December was across the board, drivendown by a 4.1% decline in residential outlays, a 0.5%slip in commercial spending and a 2.8% did in publicworks projects.Mortgage rates are expected to move a little higher,probably a handful of basis points, perhaps as muchas ten.
 
Table Definitions _______________ 
Median Price
The price at which 50% of priceswere higher and 50%were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by thenumber of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or theprice paid for the property divided bythe asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how manydays it would take to sell all theproperty for sale at the current rateof sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell thathasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number of properties actively forsale as of the last day of the month.
CitiesMedianAverageSalesPendInvenDOISP/LPMedAveSales Pend2Inven
County,,.%-.%-.%.%.%.%Burlingame--.%n/an/an/an/an/aay ty,,......Foster City,,.%.%-.%-.%-.%.%Menlo Park,,.%-.%-.%-.%.%-.%Redwood City,,.%n/an/an/an/an/aRedwood Shores,,.%-.%-.%.%-.%.%San Bruno,,.%-.%-.%.%-.%.%San Carlos,,.%.%-.%.%.%.%San Mateo,,.%-.%-.%-.%.%.%S. San Francisco,,.%-.%-.%.%-.%.%
San Mateo County - January 2011
Condos/Townhomes% Change from Year Before
PricesPrices
Page 3
020406080100120140160$100$200$300$400$500$600$70007FMAMJ J ASOND08FMAMJ J ASOND09FMAMJ J ASOND10FMAMJ J ASOND11
   C  o  n   d  o   S  a   l  e  s   M  e   d   i  a  n   &   A  v  e  r  a  g  e   P  r   i  c  e  s
San Mateo County Condos
-Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%
 
07FMAMJ J A SOND 08FMAMJ J A SOND 09FMAMJ J A SOND 10FMAMJ J A SOND 11
San Mateo County Homes:
Year-Over-Year Median Price Change
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure proc-ess, in San Mateo County declined 6.9% in December from the year before. The 284 notices filed in December were the second lowest number filed in the past thirteenmonths.Unfortunately, notices of sale, which set the date andtime of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's finalnotice before sale, spiked 14.6% from November andwere up 16.6% year-over-year,. After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there areonly three possible outcomes. First, the sale can becancelled for reasons that include a successful loanmodification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-ments. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, thebank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically
F
ORECLOSURE
 
STATISTICS
 
an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, theproperty will be sold to the third party; if not, it will goback to the bank and become part of that bank's REOinventory.In December, cancellations far outweighed the other alternatives. There were 146 cancellations to 75 back-to-bank and 16 third party sales.The good news is that the total number of homes thathave had a notice of default filed declined by 6.6% inDecember compared to December 2009. Also, the total number of homes scheduled for saledeclined by 6.7%.But, alas, the number of homes owned by the bankrose an astounding 65.2%.

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