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Forrester Report - US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 to 2013

Forrester Report - US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 to 2013

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Published by: Emilio Notareschi on Feb 11, 2011
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03/09/2013

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Making Leaders Successful Every Day
February 2, 2009 | Updated: March 4, 2009
US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013
by Patti Freeman Evansfor eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals
 
© 2009, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. Information is based on best availableresources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. Forrester®, Technographics®, Forrester Wave, RoleView, TechRadar,and Total Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. To purchase reprints of this document, please email clientsupport@forrester.com. For additional information, go towww.forrester.com.
For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals
Includes a market-sizing forecast 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
US online retail sales will reach $229 billion in 2013.
e market will grow at a CAGR of 10% over the
 ve-year forecast period.
e current economic crisis is dampening the immediate growth of onlinesales, due to lack of credit access, low consumer con
dence, decreased spending, and price-consciousbehavior. Some product categories, such as video games, pet supplies, and auto parts, will weather theeconomic conditions better than others, like PCs and home improvement products. In the long term,the demographics of online buyers will sustain the pace of growth of online sales, as these buyers are lesssusceptible to
nancial di
culties; the foundational strengths of eCommerce, such as accessibility, willalso support growth.
e online market will enter a natural early phase of maturing in the latter threeyears of the forecast. Nonetheless, eCommerce will continue to have a very strong in
uence on bothonline and o
ine retail sales, with the total Web impact on retail sales growing at a CAGR of 10%.
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
The Pace Of US Online Retail Sales GrowthSlows Slightly Between 2008 And 2013
WHAT IT MEANS
Online Retailers Need To Remain Cautious InThe Immediate Future
NOTES & RESOURCES
We conducted our analysis using a series of proprietary models.
Related Research Documents
February 2, 2009 | Updated: March 4, 2009
US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013
by Patti Freeman Evans
with Vikram Sehgal, Cristina Bugnaru, and Brendan McGowan
212
 
©2009, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction ProhibitedFebruary 2, 2009 | Updated: March 4, 2009
US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013 
For eBusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals
2
THE PACE OF US ONLINE RETAIL SALES GROWTH SLOWS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 2008 AND2013
In 2008, US retail sales grew to $141 billion; we project 2009 sales to grow by approximately 11%(see Figure 1). Over the
 ve-year forecast period of 2009 to 2013, online retail in the US will growat a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% to reach $229 billion in 2013 (see Figure 2). ACAGR of 10% is a re
ection of continued eCommerce strength, which contrasts with the recentweak o
ine sales during this past holiday season.In light of the current economic environment, online retail will have a dampened growth ratethrough 2010 (see Figure 3). By 2011, the negative e
 
ects of the economy will have dwindled;however, toward the end of the
 ve-year forecast, the growth curve will dip below double-digitlevels because of the natural market maturing pattern of the online retail environment, as we hadnoted in previous years.
1
 
Economic Pressures Dampen The Immediate Growth Of Online Sales
e recent economic developments caused by the credit and housing crisis have forced the US intorecession. According to a recent
Wall Street Journal 
survey of 54 economists, the unemployment rateis forecast to top out at 8.4% as job cuts continue into 2010, further reducing consumer spendingpower.
2
Consequently, the multiple economic pressures that consumers are facing will negatively in
uence both the online and the o
ine US retail sectors, with online being less a
 
ected.
·
Online buyers have less available credit to
nance their purchases.
Consumers are no longerable to take equity out of their homes to fund spending.
e recent economic crisis has causeda decrease in home prices, and
e Wall Street Journal 
December 2008 Economic ForecastingSurvey predicts a 6.9% drop in the house price index, with further declines expected into 2009.
is decline in home equity is coupled with consumers’ reduced access to credit and has anoverall negative impact on consumer spending power and consumption.
·
Consumer con
dence is at its lowest point in decades.
According to the Institute for SocialResearch of the University of Michigan, the June 2008 index of consumer sentiment reached56.4, a 34% decrease since the same month in 2007 — and the third-lowest reading since1952.
3
 
e reality of the current economic conditions and the continuous media reportingof increasing gas and consumer product prices, falling home prices, declines in pensioninvestments, accelerating job losses, and the restriction of the credit markets have had a negativee
 
ect on consumer con
dence. According to a recent JupiterResearch consumer survey, 35% of buyers plan to avoid major purchases given the current state of the US economy, a re
ection of the general consumer wariness.
4

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