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Asset Classes 2011

Asset Classes 2011

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Published by Ankur Sharda
How asset classes like gold, base metals, equities and others shall perform in 2011
How asset classes like gold, base metals, equities and others shall perform in 2011

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Published by: Ankur Sharda on Feb 14, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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Asset classes like precious metals, base metals, agricultural commodities, stock market,real estate and others; the performance of each asset classes will be directly linked to themovement of US dollar currency. Stock Markets and Real Estate always have their meritof their own to determine the realistic price level, whereas hard and soft commodities arestrongly correlated to money supply. It is the same situation where we experienced itfrom 1967 to 1980. The world economy is linked to US economy where it has themaximum say in world money supply since US dollar is the most adopted currency bymajor counties in the world. Since last few years, say 7 years earlier to 2011, US adoptedthe strategy of money printing of US dollar for financing to fill up the gap of fiscaldeficit.One way or the other US government is increasing money supply by the means of quantitative easing and money printing which leads to inflation across the world. Whenthe fundamentals of US economy is weak so the money will flow to some real assets likegold, silver, copper, crude oil, sugar, rice etc. The real crack in the US economy is due tocollapse of real estate and further results into sub-prime mortgage crisis. So moneymoving towards real estate within USA seems bleak and stock market shall underperformfrom its peak made as the real economy is weak. Choice left for investors and moneymanagers is to invest in assets like treasury bonds, commodities and emerging stock markets. Eventually, increase of money supply leads higher prices of assets which lead toa bubble level, then another crisis.The upward rally in emerging stock markets from 2008 to 2009 gave high returns in shortspan of within 12 months, as on last week of October’09, where the returns areapproximately 90 to 110% across all emerging markets like Brazil, China, Taiwan, India,Hong Kong, Singapore and few more countries. China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Braziland India gave almost 100% returns within 5 months whereas Shanghai Composite(China) fell sharply by 25% during the month of August’09. After the long consolidationof 9 to 12 months, some of the emerging markets rallied further inching towards all timehigh.US and other European markets are currently outperforming other stock markets of theworld where they are in 3
intermediate upward wave and which could be the final upwave of primary downward trend. DJIA should peak out in near future and shouldcomplete at upward rally at 13000 to 13500 levels. In 2011, emerging markets couldwitness a correction between 15 to 20% and at the same time till early February’11 goldand silver corrected their respective rise. Gold has behaved as per the expectation of our earlier article where it breached upwards at 1030 and achieved out target set for 1450 in November’10. US Dollar Index also behaved as per our expectations and it never crossedaround 89 levels, since the bottom out as on June’08. The year 2011 shall be the year of volatility and mixed trend in all asset classes where precious metals, base metals,agricultural commodities should give exceedingly good returns and simultaneously USDollar Index should end the year with negative returns and developed stock marketsshould end up with almost no returns. Commodities should see a build up of early bubble
in the year 2011. Gold and silver shall lead the rally followed by copper, crude oil andother base metals. Crisis in Europe will also add money supply because Euro currencymoney printing is resort to finance the European PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greeceand Spain) nations. Eventually all bull markets have to end after the bubble so will be thecase with commodities which happened twice in last century.The current financial year shall be with flush of money and limited opportunities whichresults into inflating commodity prices, eventually leading to hyper inflation in most of the economies of the world, hence revolution in many countries just like Egypt, Algeria,Tunisia, Jordan, Ivory Coast and others. Hyper inflation shall bring unrest in manycountries where current rulers shall be toppled down either by force or voting out indemocracy. Situation will be vulnerable where adverse news shall keep on flowingduring the year as well as bull-run in commodities. Such result is only due to failure of US economy and devaluation of US Dollar. In such a situation, rich can hedge or may become richer while poor shall have no option but to struggle and perish. Coming 2 to 3years would bring more political crisis, geo-political problems would arise, high interestrates, collapse of US treasury bonds, burst of real estate bubble in China, nation debtcrisis, may be war and any other new crisis in a form which shall emerge as the time shall pass. In scenario like this once again safe haven is Gold and other physical hard assets.
Technically speaking:
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)Current Level 12250DJIA has broken all the major resistances and it could surprise by going upto 13500thereafter it could fall upto 10200. It is passing the stage of third intermediate wave of long bear market.Buy is recommended with medium term target is at 13500.Straits Times Index (STI)Current Level 3100STI moved up from the bottom of 1456 to 2810 where it corrected and consolidated for long period thereafter surging towards all time high.Sell is recommended at current level with fall of 10% from current level.Hang Sang Index (HSI)Current Level 23100HSI moved up from the bottom of 11350 to 22250 where it has achieved our May’09article which states 20800 levels. So index levels of 15600 become the strong support for HSI. Negative bias recommended at current level.

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