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Table Of Contents

Ancestral Monty
1.1 A Mathematician’s Life
1.2. PROBABILITY IS HARD 9
1.2 Probability is Hard
1.3. THE PERILS OF INTUITION 11
1.3 The Perils of Intuition
1.3.1 The Birthday Problem
1.3.2 False Positives in Medical Testing
1.3.3 Thirty Percent Chance of Rain?
1.4. THE LEGACY OF PASCAL AND FERMAT 17
1.4 The Legacy of Pascal and Fermat
1.5. WHAT BAYES’ WROUGHT 21
1.5 What Bayes’ Wrought
1.6 The Bertrand Box Paradox
1.7 The Three Prisoners
1.8 Let’s Make a Deal
1.9. THE BIRTH OF THE MONTY HALL PROBLEM 33
1.9 The Birth of the Monty Hall Problem
1.10 L’Affaire Parade
1.11 The Am. Stat. Exchange
1.12 The Aftermath
1.13 Appendix: Dignity in Problem State-
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Published by Rickin Patel

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Published by: Rickin Patel on Feb 16, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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10/07/2013

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