Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Table of Contents
First Time Visitor Here (1 June 07) .............................................................................................. 3 Backwards (1 Jun 22).................................................................................................................. 4 Introduction (1 Mar 08) ...................................................................................................................... 5 Why this is important (1 May 16)..................................................................................................5 Red Cross 2011 SWS (1 Apr 23)............................................................................................... 7 Terminology (1 Feb 11) .................................................................................................................. 8 Tags (1 Apr 22) ................................................................................................................................ 8 Disaster Risk (1 Mar 08)...................................................................................................................... 9 UN GAR (1 Jun 16)..................................................................................................................10 UNDP DRI (1 Apr 24) ............................................................................................................11 IADB Disaster Risks (1 Mar 08)............................................................................................. 11 World Bank (1 May 05) ............................................................................................................11 Maplecroft NDRI (1 Mar 08)..................................................................................................12 Haiti Seasons ..................................................................................................................................12 Humanitarian Plans (1 Mar 08)............................................................................................... 13 Weather and Epidemics (1 Mar 24).................................................................................................13
Haiti Rainy Season 2011 starts early................................................................................................ 14 Haiti Lake Overflows (1 June 08) ............................................................................................... 15 Haiti 2011 Spring Rains to intensify ...........................................................................................16 Storm Vulnerability (1 Apr 22).........................................................................................................16 Hurricane Pam and Katrina (1 Mar 28) .................................................................................18 Other Nations Reality...............................................................................................................18 Severe Weather Warnings (1 May 24).........................................................................................19 Fiona followed Earl 2010 .............................................................................................................20 Haiti Weather Science (1 May 15)....................................................................................................20 Earthquakes (1 June 05)................................................................................................................21 Earthquake vulnerability (1 June 08)......................................................................................22 Earthquake predictions (1 May 11) ........................................................................................23 Tsunami Risks (1 May 24) ............................................................................................................24 Tsunamis accompanying 2010 Jan Quake (1 May 11).........................................................25 Wind Hazards (1 Feb 17) .............................................................................................................26 Hurricane Intensities .....................................................................................................................26 Haiti Historical Risks (1 Apr 08) .................................................................................................28 Understand El Nino and La Nina (1 Feb 17)............................................................................32 La Nina predicts less 2011 spring rain (1 Feb 17)................................................................ 33 La Nina stronger for 2010-2011 Winter (1 Feb 17)............................................................. 33 Global Warming, Climate Change (1 Mar 08)...........................................................................34 Sea Level Rise from Climate Change (1 Apr 08)..................................................................34 Climate Change links (1 Apr 08)............................................................................................. 35 Up-coming storm risks (1 May 07)..................................................................................................36 Haiti Hurricane Mitigation (1 May 07) .......................................................................................36 2011 Hurricane names (1 June 01).............................................................................................. 37 2011 Hurricane Season how intense? (1 May 19) .....................................................................37 2011 April Colorado Hurricane Totals (1 Apr 06)............................................................... 38 2011 April Clarifications by Dennis (1 Apr 06)....................................................................39 2011 April Colorado Landfall Probabilities (1 Apr 06) .......................................................41
2011 April Colorado Projection via Dennis (1 Apr 06) ......................................................41 2011 February are bold guesses says Dennis (1 Feb 16) .....................................................42 2011 Feb-March projections via Tony (1 Mar 09) ............................................................... 44 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast ............................................................................................... 45 2010 Tomas................................................................................................................................ 47 Volcanoes........................................................................................................................................48 US natural phenomena (1 May 24)..................................................................................................48 Tornadoes (1 May 24) ...................................................................................................................49 Winter Storms (1 May 24) ............................................................................................................49 Wild Fires (1 Jun 08) .....................................................................................................................49 Useful Downloads (1 Feb 17) ..........................................................................................................50 Version History (1 Apr 22) ..........................................................................................................51
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http://haitirewired.wired.com/forum/topics/weather-forecast-haiti http://haitirewired.wired.com/
Something is whacko in my Word formatting under Hurricane Intensities, within Weather Science, I am trying to make sub-heads for the different kinds of intensities, but that is not getting into Table of Contents. Version numbers are incremented, with this document periodically uploaded various places for convenience of other people who can then pick and choose which of my research efforts they wish to download. In 2010 I shared breaking news about weather helter skelter to my contacts in Haiti, and people supporting groups there. In advance of 2011 info expectations, here I am gathering what info I have on climate expectations, and is Haiti any better prepared than in 2010? Users of my research hold Alister Wm. Macintyre harmless, and also the places I upload my research to, and agree that my copyright is reserved and that the information is available for the intended purpose of helping in the recovery of Haiti. Some of my research content is direct quotes from other sources. I try to give credit every time I do this.
bed is now under water, high winds are blowing away their children, or a mudslide is relocating their home. Millions of Haitians are at severe risk when tropical storms arrive. Is this a fact of living which has always been the case, or is it the consequence of infrastructure destroyed by past disasters and never replaced? Where does the responsibility lie for doing the replacing? I believe it is shared: Gov of Haiti should be getting reports on what the NGOs, visiting govs, UN, etc. doing, in a form that has clarity to see progress done, progress needed ahead. UN clusters also should be getting such reports, on whats needed overall in rebuilding, whats got done, where the priorities should be.
Severe Weather Shelters (SWS) are places Haitians can go, to be safe, during a bad
storm, assuming they find out in enough time to get there, and if they know where there is. Since the Jan 2010 quake, there has not been sufficient SWS capacity for Haitian population. The people doing humanitarian relief and reconstruction do not seem to feel it is a priority to either fix this, or let Haitians know where new SWS located. According to this video, when bad weather comes, people in the tent cities are told they need to go to good shelter, but are not told where there is any.4 There is severe deforestation, much of it implemented during Duvalier dictatorships, to remove hiding places for Haitians in rebellion against the regime. Extreme poverty of the people, combined with lack of access to Biochar5 solutions, means continued chopping down of whatever vegetation is available, to burn for cooking. This means hillsides cannot hold vegetation, vegetation cannot protect Haitians from storms, there is severe soil erosion, pollution. A sanitation system for Haitians is practically non-existent. There are many reasons for this, including corruption in international interference in Haitian affairs.6 One of the impacts is that the rainy season helps spread germs associated with various medical epidemics, because of increased flow of water through overflowing drainage canals. What about the people in the Cholera Treatment Centers? ... all the pictures I have seen are of tents. When a severe storm is in the forecast, there could be major panic trouble if those people were to be evacuated to the same SWS as the general population. I also doubt transportation capacity is adequate to do that efficiently. Should the current reference directory on CTCs etc. include a column for whether the
http://haitirewired.wired.com/profiles/blogs/haiti-where-did-the-money-go I have a small document available, which defines What is Biochar? with links to more info. 6 Check out this story, in case you are unfamiliar with the problem: http://haitirewired.wired.com/profiles/blogs/causing-cholera-us-denial-of
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people there need to be relocated in the event of a Tropical Storm, or if the structure is good enough to withstand one? So basically weather can, and does, exacerbate a host of Haitian nightmares. Note my related research documents on:
tsunami, where risks of natural disasters are not a total mystery, we should mitigate against probable risks.
Economic Disasters past present future, where there are red flags alerting us
to possible hazards ahead, if we are only wise enough to interpret them, and take preventative measures.
According to Greg Higgins in Haiti Rewired (HR) discussion thread on SWS,7 the American Red Cross (ARC) issued a Request for Proposals (RFP). Gregs link to it has already gone from Relief Web, but in footnotes are some links Al Mac found, which also could disappear at any moment.8 Here is introductory paragraph to this RFP:
FEASIBILITY STUDY ON MULTI-PURPOSE COMMUNITY DISASTER CENTERS IN HAITI 2011 As part of its disaster response and disaster risk reduction efforts, the American Red Cross is implementing the Emergency Disaster Risk Reduction project (EDRR) in order to reduce negative impacts of disasters and increase safety and resilience of the people of Haiti with a special emphasis in the camps populations. The relevance and effectiveness of the project were demonstrated during recent hurricane when the trained volunteers and Vigilance Committees (DM committee) were proactively involved in disseminating early warning messages and activating evacuation plans. The ARC intends to commence a detailed feasibility study for needs analysis, mapping stakeholders, site selection and determine technically sound, culturally appropriate and financially viable designs of community disaster centers. Therefore, ARC seeks an experienced external consultant in order to carry out a feasibility study together with other technical experts assigned by ARC and HRC.
http://haitirewired.wired.com/group/architectureforhaiti/forum/topics/severe-weather-shelter-sws I located the PDF and downloaded with name Red X RFP 2011 Mar 31 SWS which I can share with people who desire a copy, and cannot find it. I also uploaded to the SWS thread on HR. http://pub27.bravenet.com/forum/static/show.php?usernum=2241665034&frmid=48&msgid=1006718&cm d=show
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The American Red Cross, Haiti Delegation hereby solicits your proposal for the provision of a Feasibility study on multi-purpose community disaster centers in Haiti 2011 as per the attached scope of work (SOW).
terminology commonly found in documents about Haiti Disaster Relief and Recovery.
GYRE = ocean currents, winds, rotation of our planet, etc. tend to create circular movement of the ocean in pockets, which can become building blocks for an upcoming weather disturbance.9 KT = nautical knots, a measure of wind speed. NFI = non-food-items SWS = Severe Weather Shelters, places where people can go when tropical storm imminent, and they know: o the storm is coming, with enough advance warning to get to SWS; and o infrastructure communication to the citizenry so they know SWS they can get to from where they are.
http://oceanmotion.org/html/background/wind-driven-surface.htm
there is an emergency need for severe weather shelter capacity, which is not being met.
For natural phenomena, on the above list, to be likely to place people at risk of harm, several elements need to be combined: Whether any humans or human property is at risk of physical exposure. Examples: o A storm that stays out at sea, not threaten any ships, is not a problem. o An earthquake, far from any land, if it does not trigger a tsunami, is no big deal. o There is now good information on population density, critical infrastructure around the world, so when serious natural phenomena detected, it is also known how many people exposed, and how well protected that geography supposedly is to that particular phenomena. Adequacy of early warning. Examples: o Japan has sensors deep below cities, to trigger sirens 15 minutes before earthquake arrival. This is not prediction but detection.
o Most volcanoes, around the world, now have monitoring stations to detect new eruptions, and signal warnings for people nearby to evacuate. Adequacy of ecosystems to weather certain hazards. Examples: o Deforestation can make hillsides more vulnerable to landslides, aid soil erosion of good farmlands, into river pollution. o Wetlands soak up hurricanes, to protect national interior, but conflicting developer needs have led to wetlands being destroyed by man, so some nations are now less protected. Adequacy of human buildings and other structures to weather a storm of known intensity, as opposed to being vulnerable to systemic failure. Examples: o Buildings rated to withstand particular intensities of earthquakes and storms. o Shelters designed to protect people in case of tornado. We can theoretically add to the natural phenomena list various human acts of violence endemic in some nations, such as: terrorism, rapes, muggings, break-ins.
The United Nations (UN) has a Global Assessment Report (GAR) on Disaster Risk Reduction, which is a resource for understanding and analyzing global disaster risk today and in the future. You can download from this page both the main report, chapter by chapter, the Appendices, HFA Monitoring Country Reports and the set of contributing papers that constitute the substance which feeds the GAR.10 Looks like they are not only yet done on Haiti for the 2010-2011 version, but also not yet started.11
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http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/home/download.html http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/hfa/reports.html
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The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) maintains a Disaster Risk Index (DRI).12 It combines history of past disasters 1980-2000 with preparedness by nation to weather such risks, to estimate in advance what the causalities are likely to be, the next time that kind of trouble arrives there, and how often this likely to re-occur. Their data is shared via: European Union (EU) Global Resource Information Database (GRID). 13 European Union (EU) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).14
Also see Earthquake lessons 2010 UNDP Calas document which I downloaded (see footnotes).15
The Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) has developed Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management to allow countries to better assess their disaster risks, serving as a useful guide for policymaking and government actions to reduce human, infrastructure, financial, and economic losses caused by earthquakes, floods and other natural events. 16 Here is their 42 page September 2010 summary report for Latin America and the Caribbean.17 Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) estimates economic loss a nation will probably suffer the next time they have a particular kind of disaster. DDI = to MCE divided by ER. Maximum Considered Event (MCE) is calculated from history of how often these kinds of events have occurred in the past, with what severity. Economic Resiliency (ER) is calculated from resources available to the government.
For under $ 30.00 we can buy Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters) via Scribd.18 Urban flooding risks are the subject of a Disaster Risk Management report, Spring 2011. 19
http://www.undp.org/cpr/disred/english/wedo/rrt/dri.htm http://www.grid.unep.ch/activities/earlywarning/DRI/ 14 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/1149/2009/nhess-9-1149-2009.html 15 http://www.iris.edu/hq/middle_america/docs/presentations/1025/Calais_2010.pdf 16 http://www.iadb.org/en/topics/natural-disasters/disaster-risk-indicators/disaster-risk-indicators,1456.html 17 http://idbdocs.iadb.org/wsdocs/getdocument.aspx?docnum=35177671 18 http://www.scribd.com/doc/49556148/Natural-Hazards-UnNatural-Disasters 19 http://go.worldbank.org/1RMUDBB7V0 http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/EXTEAPRE GTOPRISKMGMT/0,,contentMDK:22906643~menuPK:4078302~pagePK:2865114~piPK:2865167~theSite PK:4077908,00.html?cid=EAP_EAPDMEN_Q_EXT
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May 2010, Maplecroft20 released an analysis of which nations at greatest risk of which kinds of natural phenomena which can lead to disaster, in the absence of adequate human planning. Their Natural Disasters Risk Index (NDRI) helps guide businesses and investors to see what risks face their assets in different nations.
on the list of 229 nations, rated as extreme risk of additional natural disasters.
Click here to see Maplecroft's full range of over 100 political, economic, social and environmental risk indices and interactive maps. Register for trial access to see examples. "Poverty is an important factor in countries where both the frequency and impacts of natural disasters are severe," said Maplecroft Environmental Analyst, Dr Anna Moss. "Poor infrastructure, plus dense overcrowding in high risk areas like flood plains, river banks, steep slopes and reclaimed land continually result in high casualty figures."
Haiti Seasons
Haiti has two primary rainy seasons. 1st is April through mid to late June. 2nd is Mid August through October Mountainous regions may begin 1st Rainy Season Mid. February. Hurricane Season July to late October normal season One month earlier and one month later can be expected and is not unusual.
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Due to a lack of good quality government information about upcoming plans for protecting the people from tropical storms, there is also a Fear Season as the Hurricane season approaches. Haiti agriculture means there are seasons where the people can be well fed, and there are also periods which can be called Hunger Season.
After 2010 learning experiences, the main actors, directing Haiti relief and reconstruction, now know what to expect, so they plan in advance so THEY will be able to continue doing their job after the next disaster. I have yet to see evidence of disaster-planning so that the Haitians will be better protected against future disasters, but I continue watching to see if that changes. The National Risk Management and disasters (SNGRD) with the support of the United Nations Development Programme UNDP held a workshop chaired by Marie Alta JeanBaptiste, Director of Civil Protection (DPC).23 Here it is, spring of 2011, and they recognize that a better job needs to be done pooling all available resources and integrating them into a system of strategic intervention in emergency situations detailed mapping of the partners in each region, contact list update, positioning of the aid stocks, risk areas, national contingency plan, logistical needs: transport, communications, shelter.
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All thunderstorms are potentially dangerous.27 Many come with lightning. In the USA they can spawn tornadoes, hail.
Dennis Sherrod
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http://emergencysociety.com/flood/ http://emergencysociety.com/thunderstorms/
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Alert 1 Weather, Inc. P.O. Box 9473 Birmingham, AL. 35220 http://www.Alert1Weather.org/
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http://www.analyticbridge.com/profiles/blogs/interesting-risk-maps
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Here is home page for what UN NGO shelter cluster is doing for the millions of homeless from Haiti Jan 2010 quake, now mainly in tent cities, or overloading rural homes without resources for all the refugees. https://sites.google.com/site/shelterhaiti2010/home Select MAP ROOM, whose url can change over time. Locate map labeled "Severe Weather Community Shelters" meaning where Haitians can go for protection from a Hurricane, assuming they know these places exist, and where they are. Map quality is not that great for people who want to find one of these shelters, so if you wait until last day to try to figure out where, the hurricane will probably kill you before you find where. Given how serious this appears to be getting, it is a good time for to you verify your pals, on the ground in Haiti, are aware of the locations of shelters from hurricanes that are close to their current locations: Go here https://sites.google.com/site/shelterhaiti2010/2. Notice under Shelter Cluster Maps 29 May 2010 - Bad Weather Community Shelter Assessment According to http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/MDCS8DYE8N?OpenDocument&clickid=headlines (Source: OCHA/Relief Web) from International Organization for Migration (IOM) 2011 Feb-11: By end of 2011, there will still be hundreds of thousands of Haitians in the displacement camps, for lack of any solutions agreed to by the various actors in charge of Haiti disaster relief and recovery, including IOM. Many agencies, helping the camp residents, are running out of funds to do so. More than half of the displaced are living in camps established on private land with at least 99 of Haiti's 1152 camps currently under threat of eviction.
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One year before Hurricane Katrina there was Hurricane Pam, which was a simulation, what would happen if the Gulf Coast got the most powerful Hurricane then known to man. Pam exactly predicted Katrina, and what needed to be done to protect the people. When Katrina came along, none of the protections had been implemented, and all the lessons of Pam had fallen out of authorities brains. When asked about this afterwards, we were told that Pam recommendations were on the drawing boards and budget requests to implement. But officialdom had been acting like they had all the time in the world to do this, not matter if it take years. Hurricane seasons are very predictable. Risk existed that Pam predictions might happen in any hurricane season. They did happen in the very next one. These recommendations are being taken entirely too lightly.
US Coast Guard was at Port Condition Whiskey, in anticipation of Hurricane Earl in 2010. Assuming you live in a reasonably sturdy home, as opposed to a Haiti tent city, the Governor of North Carolina advised people to have 3-7 day supply of the following stuff inside their battened down home (or evacuate): Supplies should be kept in an easy-to-carry, water-tight container, such as a large plastic trash can or sturdy cardboard box lined with plastic trash bags. Your kit should include: Essential medications First aid kit and first aid book Cash and checkbook Copies of important documents insurance, birth certificates, social security cards, wills, tax and bank information, list of doctors and inventory of household goods Water - one gallon per person per day Water purification kit or bleach Non-perishable foods, such as canned meats, granola bars, instant soup and cereals, etc. Non-electric can opener Baby supplies: formula, bottles, pacifiers, soap, baby powder, clothing, blankets, baby wipes, disposable diapers, canned food and juices Seasonal changes of clothing, including sturdy shoes Blanket or sleeping bag per person Portable radio or television with extra batteries Flashlight and extra batteries Extra pair of eyeglasses or contacts Extra house keys and car keys
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Pet supplies: food, water, leash, carrier, bedding and vaccination records Books, cards, toys, things to occupy you and your childs time Large plastic trash bags for waste, tarps and rain ponchos Bar soap and liquid detergent Anti-bacterial hand wipes or gel Personal hygiene items such as soap, shampoo, toothpaste, toothbrush and deodorant, etc. Feminine hygiene supplies Toilet paper
http://emergencysociety.com/hurricane/ See my Maps Directory research notes for guidance on downloading Google Earth, learning how to use it effectively.
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When UN NGOs say "emergency shelter" they mean Tents & Tarps, ie. shelter for homeless from sun rain etc., but 40% of this not designed for tropical weather, disintegrates within 2-3 months, then replaced by same "quality". The map of "emergency shelter gaps" is an estimate of how many Haiti homeless do not even have that much protection vs. how many currently are in the tent cities. When UN NGOs say "transitional shelter" they mean wooden structures which are about the size of an outhouse or tool shed, with canvas walls which can be cut by a rapist knife in middle of night ... they are better than tents & tarps, but not by much
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I have been posting 2 kinds of ingredients: 1. Imminent Weather forecasts when trouble brewing 2. Seek better understanding of the sciences of weather prediction When weather forecast is more severe than usual, I often also post info on my Facebook Notes,31 then use Facebook Message to Groups capability to send link to that info to groups of Haitian contacts. I also sometimes share in other social networks which I am in. The risk of Earthquakes and Tsunamis, in general, outside of Haiti specifically, are discussed in my other research notes: Natural Phenomena Disasters within my Navigation Guide to Japan
Nuclear Info.
Multiple chapters of Lessons (which should have been learned from recent disasters), where I explore what are the largest in history, which turn out to be thanks to Asteroids hitting the earth, so I check on the state-of-art of science there, predicting in time to do something about them, which is good, but not good enough. I have a time line of red flags (warning of disasters) in Economy Disasters past present future. Notice expected Asteroid near-miss of planet Earth in 2029.
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http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000739863521&sk=notes http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
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prediction. They had said that location would get 8.0 or worse, some time in next 30 years. Earthquake predicting: Science is constantly improving. It cannot predict WHEN one will come, like with weather prediction, but scientists have been predicting WHERE there is a high risk of one coming soon. In 2008, an earthquake scientist warned that Haiti was at imminent risk of an earthquake near the nations capital of Port au Prince.33 Of course theres always people warning of stuff, and some of them are nut jobs, so the credentials of the sources of any predictions should be verified before using that info to take (expensive) risk mitigation action. The Haiti quake was a shock to everyone, but not a surprise to earthquake scientists. Two years was not enough time for a lot of preparation, but it was time to improve critical infrastructure such as buildings where fire engines and ambulances parked (so they would not be crushed by those collapsing buildings). According to 2011 March 19 Economist magazine, Japanese seismologists had warned in Jan 2011 that NE Japan was overdue for a large quake. They calculated that there was a 99% chance of an 8.0 or higher quake in the next 30 years off the Miyagi coast. They were not surprised March 11 by a quake coming almost exactly where they had predicted one, only by its size. Two months advance warning probably was not enough time for a lot of preparation, but it was enough time to build higher sea walls for nuclear power plants, and improve inland tsunami warning systems. Here is a beacon placed inside buildings, to help rescuers find survivors. 34 You know that many cars have a device which detects a variety of trouble, then has a conversation with the car's survivors to determine what kind of rescue they need? Well this is the same kind of deal for inside buildings.35 Here is a site about Earthquakes around the world.36
At time of 2010 Jan earthquake, the entire nation of Haiti had only a single educational seismometer operating in the country.37 (I assume it needed electrical power.) After the disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) sent in a team to study the aftermaths aftershocks. The geology team found no evidence of movement on the Enriquillo Plantain Garden fault. Other studies also confirmed the finding that the earthquake had
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not occurred on the main fault as first signs indicated, but on complicated secondary faults. 38 Initial investigation results were published in the November 2010 issue of Nature Geoscience.39 In a country where awareness of earthquake hazard had been almost nonexistent, the USGS is working with other international agencies to help build a community of earthquake professionals who understand and can communicate the hazard to the Haitian public, media, and officials In the absence of good training for the population, in what to do in case of a quake, the result is often panic when one comes.40 Here are several maps including color coding USA as to where Earthquake risk is greatest.41 Perhaps the principle can be extended to other nations.
Earthquakes can and will strike again in the same place.42 Such as Port-au-Prince in 1751, 1770, and January 12, 2010. A lot of people are predicting earthquakes.43 How many of them are actually close to being correct? It is no good to predict one in USA, because almost every day there is one in Alaska. Wikipedia says the following, for an earthquake prediction to be considered any good:44 contain the expected magnitude with error limits; well defined area of the epicenter; range of dates; probability of this to come true; data from which the prediction was derived must be verifiable; analysis of these data must be reproducible.
Due to a growth in people making earthquake predictions, where their credentials are uncertain, many news stories attempt to correlate serious earthquakes with these predictions. Many of the writers have fragmentary info of what is known various places around the world, so frequently we find statements in the stories, we believe to be untrue.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n11/full/ngeo992.html http://www.nature.com/ngeo/index.html 40 http://earthquake-report.com/category/earthquake-linked-subjects/earthquake-preparedness/ 41 http://www.analyticbridge.com/profiles/blogs/interesting-risk-maps 42 http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-2765-haiti-earthquake-unfortunately-we-expect-other-earthquakes.html 43 http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm http://earthquakepredictionbytiempe.blogspot.com/ http://tobefree.wordpress.com/2011/03/16/earthquake-prediction-2011-jim-berkland-a-major-earthquake-innorth-america-imminent/ 44 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_prediction
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On May 11, 2011 many people stayed away from Rome Italy, due to an earthquake prediction, by the late Raffaele Bendandi.45 On May 11, 2011 there was an earthquake in Southern Spain.46 Any correlation? Not according to Wikipedia standards above. Who was Raffaele Bendandi?
Born in 1893 in central Italy In November 1923, he predicted a quake would strike on January 2, 1924 Two days after this date, it did, in Italian province of Le Marche Mussolini made him a Knight of the Order of the Crown of Italy But he also banned Bendandi from making public predictions, on pain of exile
Thus we can see that the same person can make several predictions. One, or more, bang on very accurate, others totally invalid. Lots of people have theories about what accompanies quakes, whether easier to detect the secondary effects, a lot of these theories have been discredited by prior scientists, but as detection science gets more sensitive, shouldnt they be rechecked?
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The study,50 was published online October 2010 in the journal Nature Geoscience. The tallest tsunami ever recorded so far is the 1958 Lituya Bay megatsunami, which had a record height of 524 m (1742 ft).51 Weather science includes storm surge with a hurricane ... the science does not yet know how come surge is not proportional to hurricane ferocity. Tsunamis of various intensities can be triggered by land slides, on land (from earthquakes) and underwater (from earthquakes and severe weather). There are tons of tales of people who watch sea movement with amazement, or taking pictures, who then get killed because they do not realize how dangerous this stuff is.
We now know the 2010 earthquake caused tsunamis which killed many people (not nearly as many as the quake), because no one expected them. In fact, it was many months before scientists figured out how come the tsunamis, when they had thought there were none. Within days of the quake, there were reports of land shifting into the sea such as in Ti Paradi? Maybe, on the way to Grand Goaves, had a person or more being washed by the swell that came in. Evidence in newscasts was a coconut tree standing quite a few yards in the middle of the ocean. Heres a CNN story about how Haitis landscape was changed at time of 2010 Earthquake.52 Heres a You Tube video, with links to similar ones.53 What they are describing, sure sounds to me like: (a) Tsunami phenomena; AND (b) Land subsidence to below sea level. Seismologists had made many predictions about earthquake risk on island of Hispaniola, before the 2010 Jan events, at the time, and after. What happened was not as accurately predicted as elsewhere in the world of earthquake forecasting which led to studies to figure out how come. This led to the discovery of more fault lines than they had known were there, which meant risk of tsunami higher than they previously realized. I believe that the topic of earthquakes and tsunamis should be part of the geography curriculum, with an effort to update the curriculum as this kind of new information comes out. Then there is the topic of disaster drills within a classroom - risk of flooding, cyclone, earthquake. Do you get under your classroom desks? Is there an especially sturdy location in
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n11/full/ngeo975.html you have to register to see the full article. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historic_tsunamis#North_America_and_the_Caribbean 52 http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2010/01/23/watson.paradise.lost.cnn.html Thanks to Mike Perrett for locating this link. 53 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwtxA5nB6cA
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building, which can accommodate everyone in the building? Do you exit the building as rapidly as possible? Do you watch out for chasms opening in the ground? Do you stay away from hillsides which can turn into landslides, or do you climb for higher ground? Should the school hold a census of who is unaccounted for, maybe trapped inside, before the children run home? Do you have at-risk family members (elderly, disabled, etc.) who may need help getting to higher ground? This topic may not be part of "the environment of Haiti" but it is certainly part of "the environment of the students."
Hurricane Intensities
Colorado State U April 2010 report expected 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin between June and November 2010, with four of them anticipated to form into Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes. So how serious are those?
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Hurricane Categories. I have trouble believing the transitional shelters, let alone homeless camp tent & tarp shelters, of Haiti can withstand even a category one hurricane.
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Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).
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It has only been in recent years that science has captured information about storm surge and tsunamis. Historically they killed off any witnesses, so no one was the wiser about that threat. How far back in history patterns are studied, and how well overall science is understood, alters perceptions of risk. 55 1492 - Christopher Columbus discovered the island, and its previous native Arawak Taino Amerindian population, which was virtually annihilated by Spanish settlers within 25 years. Their precise death toll never recorded. In the early years of European colonists in the new world, the death toll to slaves was excluded from statistics of how many people got killed by natural disasters. There was a God awful war of Independence at conclusion of which France imposed an astronomical ransom. The war was over slavery, which was illegal in France when the war began, but apparently what is at home in a nation is different in its colonies. 1842 May Earthquake, in the north, demolishes Cap-Haitian. 10,000 dead. 1915 US invades Haiti, maintains direct control until 1947. Once again Haitians become slaves, even though slavery had been long illegal back home in USA. 1935 October - A tropical storm kills 2,000 plus in Jeremie. 1937 - 17,000 to 35,000 Haitians living in Dominican Republic, near Haitian border, are massacred by Dominican military. 1946 Haiti has 8.1 magnitude earthquake, caused Tsunami which killed 1,790 people. 1954 October - Hurricane Hazel kills an estimated 1,000 Haitians, and severely damages Haitian agriculture. The Doc family comes to power. The toll under their rule is only now coming to light. 1963 October - Hurricane Flora does a lot of damage. 1964 September Hurricane Cleo damages Grande Anse. 1966 September Hurricane Ines damages Sud and Quest. 1979 August Hurricane David hits Nord-Quest. 1980 August Hurricane Allen hits South Coast.
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http://meridian.aag.org/callforpapers/program/ParticipantDetail.cfm?IMISID=90049036&mtgID=56
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1987 Constitution of 1987 is enacted, written in both French and Haitian Creole. Large land-owners massacre hundreds of peasants for demanding land. Here is 1987 Haiti constitution translated into English. Confusing Aristide history. 1998 August Hurricane Georges hits Quest-Center. 2004 May - Severe floods in south, and in parts of neighboring Dominican Republic, leave more than 2,000 dead or disappeared. 2004 June - UN peacekeepers take over security duties from US-led force and help flood survivors. 2004 July - International donors pledge more than $1bn in aid. 2004 September - Nearly 3,000 killed in flooding in the north, in the wake of tropical storm Jeanne. The combined natural disasters killed 5,000 people, impacted 300,000 Haitians, and destroyed 7% of Haiti GDP.56 Late 2004 - Rising levels of deadly political and gang violence in the capital. Did weather scientists see trouble coming? No, 2005 was a neutral season (Dennis, Wilma (TS Alpha merged with Wilma after hitting Haiti). 2005 July - Hurricane Dennis kills at least 45 people. 2007 - Hurricanes Dean and Noel killed 330 Haitians, affected 194,000 people, and destroyed 2% of GDP.57 Did weather scientists see next trouble coming? No, 2008 was a neutral season (Fay, Hannah, Ike, Gustav). 2008 May - US and World Bank announce extra food aid totaling 30m dollars. In response to plea from President Preval for more police to help combat wave of kidnappings-forransom, Brazil agrees to boost its peacekeeping force. 2008 August/September Within one month, nearly 800 people are killed and hundreds are left injured as Haiti is hit by a series of devastating storms and hurricanes. Haiti is hit by
56
ALNAP Context Analysis, from GoH Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) 2010 Reconstruction effort.
57
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Tropical Storm Fay; Hurricane Gustav; Tropical Storm Hanna; and Hurricane Ike. of economy destroyed. Over 1 million Haitians made homeless, or in need of aid. These storms caused significant damage to crops, and killed many farm animals (goats, pigs, cattle).58 The UN cluster system was used in Haiti for the first time, in response to the 2008 weather disasters, to try to coordinate different efforts by common themes. Journalists, covering this, should correlate lists of which NGOs are participating in particular clusters, with lists of NGOs overall, then ask those not participating, why not, then follow-up on their claims.59 2009 May - Former US President Bill Clinton appointed UN special envoy to Haiti. One of his jobs is to rebuild Haitian economy after the weather disasters. We might ask him when this task is supposed to get completed. 2009 July - World Bank and International Monetary Fund cancel $1.2bn of Haiti's debt 80% of the total - after judging it to have fulfilled economic reform and poverty reduction conditions. 2009 Dec 25 storm destroyed the pigeon pea and sorghum harvests (the bean harvest had already been particularly bad in July). It also killed animals and destroyed part of the seed stocks. 60 2009-2010 an epidemic killed off most all of Haitis pigs. Pigs are a staple for poor families, since they require very little maintenance, and are a source of food. 2010 January An estimated 300,000 people are killed (lots of dispute over actual numbers) when a magnitude 7.0+ earthquake hits the capital Port-au-Prince and its wider region - the worst in the region in 200 years. Millions become homeless. Damage = 100% GDP.61 In fact, when compared to other disasters in human history, with respect to proportion of a nation or people impacted, this was one of the worst overall. Presidential palace demolished. Government leadership now from a police station near the airport. First arrivals consult with Preval there, sharing their plans, obtaining his approval.
58
See URD Feb 2011 magazine, mini-reviewed in my 1 year ICVA URD research notes.
See Lessons Learned section 3.2 of ALNAP Context Analysis, for the UN perspective. Riz Khan explains why the international NGO community does such a poor job of mutual cooperation in humanitarian aid.
59 60
See URD Feb 2011 magazine, mini-reviewed in my 1 year ICVA URD research notes.
61
ALNAP Context Analysis, which got it from GoH Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) 2010 associated with the Reconstruction effort.
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The UN, and nations the world over, rush all sorts of aid to Haiti. US takes control of the main airport, with the approval of President Preval, to ensure orderly arrival of aid flights, and to upgrade the airport. Initially the control tower demolished, only room for 4 planes on ground at same time. US replaces control tower, expands ground space for planes, so that more and more can deliver aid each day. It takes several weeks before repairs make it possible for the airport to accommodate all which wish to land. However, if Preval fails to communicate with his people, to let them know what the Gov of Haiti is doing to help them, then it appears to the people like he is doing nothing. 62 In the aftermath of 2010 January earthquake, Haiti is hit by additional disasters, which are combination of natural and manmade, which I explore in more detail in other research notes. 2010 Severe Weather visitations Massive increase in disabled amputees getting almost zero support Surprise evictions of 1,000 encampments and counting Epidemic of rape and sexual assault Cholera Epidemic Other medical crises Haiti election politics accused of massive corruption. Public donors find zero confidence in accountability and transparency of organizations carrying out disaster relief efforts.
62 63
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WMO website: www.wmo.int Summary Report: (Source: OCHA/Relief Web) http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/MUMA-8A637G?OpenDocume... Related Web Links: National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
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http://www.wmo.int/pages/members/members_en.html International Workshop on ENSO, Decadal Variability and Climate Change in South America, visit www.clivar.org/meetings/enso_2010.php Detail Report: (Source: OCHA/Relief Web) http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/MUMA-8A637G/$File/full_report.pdf
We have all seen predictions that Global Warming will continue to melt Arctic and Antarctic contributing to a rise in sea level, threatening coastal communities. Various scientists try to measure the rate of the polar ice cap melting, so as to calculate how much this will be. 66
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)67 said in 2007 that sea levels would rise at least 28cm (1ft) by the year 2100. Various others have said this is an under-estimate, that it could be twice as much.68 This is an overall average. Apparently ice sheets such as those on Greenland or Antarctica gravitationally attract the water. This pulls the water towards coasts nearer the ice sheets, effectively making it pile up to an extent that can be measured in centimeters. Thus, the rise in sea level will not be the same everywhere on the planet. A Dutch team has made what appears to be the first attempt to model all the factors leading to regional variations.69
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) United Nations (UN) United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva (UNEP) United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi (UNEP) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) UN Gateway to Climate Change Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Global Environment Facility (GEF) Linkages by International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) IPCC Data Distribution Centre IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme IPCC Working Group I IPCC Working Group II IPCC Working Group III The Ozone Secretariat, UNEP United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification Climate Change at the Open Directory Project Climate Change Resources from SourceWatch Climate Change from the UCB Libraries GovPubs Ocean Motion: Satellites Record Weakening North Atlantic Current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) United Nations University's 'Our World 2' Climate Change Video Briefs United Nations University's 'Our World 2' Indigenous voices on climate change films Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge An online video presentation by Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Auckland Climate Change Performance Index 2010 List of Climate Change related Organizations
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USA links
EPA Global Warming Site Resource Center Global Climate Change from NASA Climate Library at Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University
British links
Climate Change from the Met Office (UK) Climate Change on In Our Time at the BBC. (listen now)
season.html
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earthquake, or which have greater capacity needs due to population relocated in the aftermath of the quake and cholera epidemic. In 2011 there are some revisions to this planning. Some international organizations are preparing an information campaign to be launched on June 1, 2011. During this campaign flyers with photos will be distributed to the public. The June 2011 campaign plans to prepare a family emergency kit containing the products necessary for survival during a week like flashlights, food and medicines, among others.71 This effort wont be much help to the over million Haitians still in camps with tents and tarps, or the million Haitians in T-shelters, which can at best withstand a level-1 hurricane, and many of which have been built on known flood plains. This is because many international efforts are designed in ignorance of Haiti reality, how it is different from reality in the nations where the efforts are designed.
season.html
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In mid-May, the Christian Science Monitor quotes National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), that the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season will probably be another above average year in activity.72 The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAAs Climate Prediction Center a division of the National Weather Service.released May 19,73 forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center are expecting: a 70 percent chance of 12 to 18 storms with tropical-storm-force winds (39 mph or higher). 6 to 10 of the storms are expected to grow into hurricanes. (winds 74 mph or higher) 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes. (Category 3 4 or 5 with winds 111 mph or higher.)
Unfortunately, people can experience "hurricane amnesia," adds Craig Fugate, who heads the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in Washington. He is referring to the long time spans that can elapse between landfalling hurricanes in any one location, and the tendency of people to forget how serious the storms can be. Some people may not have experienced the full force of a hurricane, and thus falsely think they need not take advised precautions. 2010 had the 3rd most active Atlantic hurricane season, since these statistics started being gathered. There are several reasons why the outlook is for increased activity, vs. past years. Read the articles for more info.74 Theres whats happening, immediate causes, and speculation about long term trends. The quality of the data is dependent on satellites whose life is drawing to a close, need to be replaced, but there are funding challenges with the Congressional budget.
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Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0) Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) 1950-2000 Average Named Storms (NS) Named Storm Days (NSD) Hurricanes (H) Hurricane Days (HD) Major Hurricanes (MH) Major Hurricane Days (MHD)
10 165 180
10 160 175
1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6)
I had questioned some of the numbers, seeing excessively high in some charts, relative to others, speculating perhaps I was misreading what they meant.
The data reflected in the report and Excel Sheet refers to the "eye" or center of the storm. When information and reports say "landfall" it is meant to refer to the center or eye of the hurricane / tropical system making actual landfall in a given area.
The numbers in Colorado State University's reports refer to the total number of tropical systems. This is why you will see such high numbers in their detailed reports. Below is a basic guide and not written in technical terms. The total numbers in the report will include any of the following:
Tropical Storm - Organized tropical weather system with organized circulation Hurricane - Strong tropical system with sustained circulation and sustained winds
in excess of 74 MPH. Categories 1 - 5
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Alister, you are correct in the statement of the sizes of some of the systems / storms. In the
larger storms, the clouds and rain bands can be as much as 500
- 600 miles
across. Obviously, they get increasingly stronger the closer to the center you go.
The strongest hurricane winds always occur near the center of the storms, directly outside the eye. Tropical Storm winds outside the hurricane strength area may extend up to a couple hundred miles or more across. Giving the example of a medium (120 MPH) sized hurricane moving westward, with the center 100 miles south side of Haiti, it is very possible to have hurricane force winds (75+ MPH) across the southern half of Haiti. Also, Tropical Storm force winds (39 - 74 MPH) could still occur across most any area of the country. With an average speed of 16 - 18 MPH movement, these kind of winds can be expected up to and possibly over a 24 - 36 period. Any of these sized winds can do heavy damage, especially to an already fragile area. Most any of the tents and shelters will be taken down by winds in excess of 40 MPH. On a positive note, the majority of the projections are based on impact in the United States. The tropical systems progressively get stronger as they move westward. The very strong systems are possible across Haiti, but usually not the very extreme strong ones. This is bad for the U.S. and Mexico, but better for this area of Hispaniola. This does Not mean Haiti will miss being impacted. We can and should very well expect tropical systems to impact Haiti this year. As a note to this also; The strongest winds and rains are always on the Northeast Quadrant if the storm is moving from South to North. If it is moving West, the strongest will be on the Northwest Quadrant.
This makes any system in the Southern Caribbean (south of Haiti) more likely to make some type of impact to Haiti, even if the eye does not make landfall. We can expect Heavy Rains and Strong Winds sometime this hurricane season. The strong and long duration rains WILL cause flooding across certain areas. I hope that clarifies some of the information. Dennis Dennis Sherrod Chairman
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Alert 1 Weather, Inc. P.O. Box 9473 Birmingham, AL. 35220 http://www.Alert1Weather.org
When initially posted below, I am not seeing all of Dennis referenced attachments, but I downloaded and can share some of the conclusions.
Hurricane 2011 Apr Caribbean Landfall Probabilities is an Excel with two sheets. Current Forecast Sheet predicts 175 weather events with probabilities of which will come how close to Haiti, and each of the other nations of the region. I bolded the Haiti line to make it easier to read.
56% Probability of 1 or more named storms tracking within 50 miles of Haiti. Up to 48 of them. 34% Probability of 1 or more hurricanes tracking within 50 miles of Haiti. Up to 24 of them. 16% Probability of 1 or more major hurricanes tracking within 50 miles of Haiti. Up to 10 of them. 71% Probability of 1 or more named storms tracking within 100 miles of Haiti. Up to 71 of them. 43% Probability of 1 or more hurricanes tracking within 100 miles of Haiti. Up to 32 of them. 22% Probability of 1 or more major hurricanes tracking within 100 miles of Haiti. Up to 14 of them.
Climatology Sheet does the same kind of probabilities based on 1900-2000 history.
Since the most powerful storms can be 250 miles across, with worst winds on the outside, so 50200 miles away from the eye of a hurricane is not a safe distance, I asked Dennis if the probabilities within 50 and 100 miles are for distance from eye, or distance from effects, and how far from the eye are the effects for each kind.
75
http://haiti.mphise.net/node/911
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The annual forecast for the 2011 hurricane season has been issued by Colorado State University. Dennis says their forecast and predictions are the most reliable and accurate yearly. http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2011/april2011/apr2011.pdf
This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts
Of particular interest in this 44 page document are pages 2, 19, 24, 27, 28, 29. Dennis says what all of the report boils down to is that there is a slight increase in the total projections for storms this year over last year, in the Caribbean. But, by the review of the Caribbean Landfall Probability Chart, Haiti while being prone to these storms, may see less of an direct impact chance compared to previous years. See attached into MPHISE is Landfall Probability Chart for the Caribbean for 2011. As a reminder; everyone should keep in mind these are only long range forecast and they are not definitive. In-depth hurricane plans should be made and in place when and if the storms do begin. Please let me know if you have any questions. Dennis Dennis Sherrod Chairman Alert 1 Weather, Inc. P.O. Box 9473 Birmingham, AL. 35220 http://www.Alert1Weather.org
Information, below cited by Tony, includes good information, but Dennis Sherrod, Chairman of Alert 1 Weather, Inc. says, in mid February, that "predictions" being made and posted are mostly bold guesses at best. He maintains as he has said daily for the past few weeks, it is mostly too early in the season to make any reasonable predictions. 76 1. The TSRAT forecast published December 06, 2010, itself claims, that their prediction success is low over a 30 year period. 2. The second article entitled "2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Extended Outlook" also
http://www.Alert1Weather.org
76
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clearly states: "Keep in mind that forecasts made this early before the season are subject to very large errors." 3. Jeff from Weather Underground is an excellent and well known meteorologist. Analyzing what he wrote and his graphics, it is clear that he also feels it is too soon to accurately predict and at best it would be a neutral season. That is a excellent prediction at this time, so we should stay in the middle. 4. NOAA / NWS maintains a middle of the road approach at this time also and are not making definitive predictions or statements yet. Now, will see a change from the current La Nina to an El Nino pattern that will change how hurricane season affects certain areas? NOAA's Climate Predictions Center to give a 50% chance that La Nia will be gone by June. It will change, but no one knows yet when, or if it will affect the 1st part or last part of the season, if at all. Will the storms be more likely to take a due westerly course, drift northward or stay south across the Caribbean? No one knows yet. You will not know until the storms develop and know what the current predictions are. My personal opinion is that is not reasonable at this point to say we will or will not have a stronger tropical season affecting Hispaniola. We should not concentrate on whether the season will have more or less hurricanes this year. We need to concentrate on the known factors that there will be more and stronger rains coming as the summer months approach. Under the current and ongoing living conditions and lack of infrastructure of Haiti, we can very well deduce there will be major problems from any substantial rains, especially of the tropical nature. These will come as they do every year. Hurricanes and strong tropical storms of stronger rains and higher winds obviously jeopardize and affect many more people. As Alister, others, and myself understand, the housing and other structures are not made for the long duration rains and winds. The materials the tents are made of are not made for everyday tropical use in excess of 1 year solid use. They will not stand up to the conditions. We saw just a small portion of this in 2010 year when the minimal Hurricane Tomas affected Haiti. This was a minimal storm and fast moving causing less damage than normal from a normal moving East to due West storm.
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What we must do is not focus on how many or how few hurricanes of if the season will be more or less intense. We must focus on making as many prior arrangements for securing the people and property for the coming tropical season. As I have been saying, make the preparations now while we still have the drier conditions and do not wait until the season arrives. Materials are in a short enough supply now. Waiting will mostly guarantee it will be much harder, if possible, to get what you need. Dennis Sherrod Haiti MPHISE Logistics and Security
Dennis Sherrod Chairman Alert 1 Weather, Inc. P.O. Box 9473 Birmingham, AL. 35220 http://www.Alert1Weather.org
http://www.jetcityci.com/
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2. TSRATL Forecast by Tropical Storm Risk a group operating out of the Space and Climate Physics Department and the University College in London, UK.78 http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDec2011.pdf http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/12/08/us-weather-hurricanesidUSTRE6B74CQ20101208 - Colorado State University predictions of above average, 2010 like season. http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2011/01/03/2011-expected-to-be-another-busyhurricane-season - CSU & WSI (Weather Services International, a weather risk think tank) note that the two independent entities are making the same predictions relative to the intensity and number of storms. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html - Dr. Jeff Masters, a renowned former National Hurricane Center hurricane expert, discussing how the set up for a transition to El Nino conditions in the Atlantic and Carribean does not appear to be coming in time to diminish the impact of storms by increasing vertical wind shear on the storms, thereby making them less powerful. These are all speculations. We dont know how bad it is going to be, in any given year. Where continuity planning, risk mitigation, response planning and development, evacuation protocols, plans and mechanisms are concerned, resource allocation and budgeting for a "worst case scenario" is generally the best approach, as is evidenced by the response, mitigation and continuity plans Tony has followed which were of others designs, and subsequently developed and executed in the field in varying capacities as a government employee, contractor and corporate security director.
78
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Camp said. There were only 9 tropical storms in 2009, making it one of the quietest years in a decade. El Nino might have contributed to that. In the 2010 Hurricane Season, the US National Weather Service started using different scales for tropical storm wind velocities (charted elsewhere in these research notes), expected size of storm surge, and flooding. This is because past year systems have been misleading. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is produced by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), in collaboration with scientists from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the US Hurricane Research Division (HRD). Here is link to the whole story, that was published May 27. This link in turn has links to the science involved, and more information on the analysis. They estimated a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season: * 14-23 Named Storms, * 8-14 Hurricanes * 3-7 Major Hurricanes * An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median. The ACE value means an exceptionally active (or hyperactive) season. This outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated likely ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. There are many reasons for uncertainty, including: 1. Predicting El Nio and La Nia (also called ENSO) impacts is an ongoing scientific challenge facing climate scientists today. Such forecasts made during the spring generally have limited skill. 2. Many combinations of named storms and hurricanes can occur for the same general set of climate conditions. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given climate signal will be associated with several short-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity. 3. Model predictions of sea-surface temperatures, vertical wind shear, moisture, and stability have limited skill this far in advance of the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.
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4. Weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity. Predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not predictable weeks or months in advance. Therefore, it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Weather Service International (WSI) made a July 21 microscopic change in predictions for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. They expect an extremely active season in August through October with 19 named storms, including 11 hurricanes and five intense hurricanes of Category 3 status or greater. (Category 3 = Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr)) (in June WSI was predicting 20 named storms.) Not all of this stuff will hit Haiti, but the odds are pretty good that at least one will be there, maybe more than one. The forecast includes an Increased Northeast US Threat. The coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year. El Nino has now vanished. Although hurricane season seemed slow to get started, eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for July, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005. This indicates the intensity of hurricanes will be more vigorous than in past years when the Atlantic sea surface was not as warm.
2010 Tomas
Hurricane Tomas was a glancing blow at best, with a high central pressure, and a tight center. Probably 95% - 98% of the tents withstood this. Obviously not a typical tropical system for this region. It was of a "normal" type for a late year, non typical tropical system. When a typical strong tropical storm, not even of hurricane strength comes through on a direct path of any area of tent cities or sub standard shelters, we will see much more disastrous results in the ability to withstand the rains and winds.
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We must not get locked into a mindset of whether a season is going to be bigger, smaller, or equal to previous years. All it will take is just one storm to affect an area that is unprepared and unable to protect themselves.
Volcanoes
Soufrire Hills volcano located on island of Montserrat (one of the Leeward islands of the Lesser Antilles) not far SE from Haiti has been having "mild" activity, but we should monitor for ash plumes disrupting air traffic, and risk of earthquake, if it gets worse than mild. Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) is one place to check regarding latest status. SOUFRIERE HILLS Montserrat 16.72N, 62.18W; summit elev. 915 m http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1600-05= Map http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?content=maps#monty Geologic Summary. The complex dominantly andesitic Soufrire Hills volcano occupies the southern half of the island of Montserrat. The summit area consists primarily of a series of lava domes emplaced along an ESE-trending zone. English's Crater, a 1-km-wide crater breached widely to the E, was formed during an eruption about 4,000 years ago in which the summit collapsed, producing a large submarine debris avalanche. Block-and-ash flow and surge deposits associated with dome growth predominate in flank deposits at Soufrire Hills. Non-eruptive seismic swarms occurred at 30-year intervals in the 20th century, but with the exception of a 17th-century eruption that produced the Castle Peak lava dome, no historical eruptions were recorded on Montserrat until 1995. Long-term small-to-moderate ash eruptions beginning in that year were later accompanied by lava-dome growth and pyroclastic flows that forced evacuation of the southern half of the island and ultimately destroyed the capital city of Plymouth, causing major social and economic disruption.
79
http://emergencysociety.com/terrorism/
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The number of tornado reports exploded in 1953, the year the Weather Bureau (precursor agency to the NWS) began issuing tornado watches. The watches increased public awareness of tornadoes at the same time the Weather Bureau began assembling tornado reports in order to assess tornado watch accuracy. A larger, denser and more tornado-savvy population and improving communication appear to be the most plausible explanation for the increasing number of tornado sightings through the years. Between 8 a.m. Wednesday and the same time Thursday, 340 people were killed in the storms.82 That made April 27, 2011, the deadliest single day for tornadoes since the March 18, 1925, tornado outbreak which left 747 dead in seven states. 362 tornadoes struck affected area during three-days April 25-28, 2011 including 312 in 24 hours.83 This eclipsed previous record of 148 tornadoes over two days in 1974.
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Here are several maps including color coding USA as to where Flood risk is greatest. 86
In addition to these downloads from external sources, Al Mac also has other research notes of relevance to this general topic. Check out for example:
collection of research notes about various barriers to rebuilding Haiti back better there are pointers inside this starting point to the rest of the collection. One issue is the vast number of Haitians in housing which will not survive a major tropical storm.
86
http://www.analyticbridge.com/profiles/blogs/interesting-risk-maps
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information about the major contributors to different kinds of aid to Haiti relief and reconstruction. Included in there is lots of info, including links to sites about: o Weather services mentioned in the summary section; o various tropical weather disturbances in 2010, such as Hurricane Tomas and the Sep-24 surprise; o Severe Weather Shelters; o Gov of Haiti weather forecast and prediction capability;
Haiti Maps a directory of approx 100 different places which have maps
organizing information in many interesting and useful ways. Start with the chapter on Science Maps.
87 88
http://www.scribd.com/explore http://www.linkedin.com/in/almacintyre
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My files, on Linked In, use an application from Box Net. You could join Box Net, instead of Linked In, as an alternative way of getting at my shared files. Search for me there under macwheel99. Early in 2011 we began to see multiple warnings of what 2011 weather might be for Haiti, so I began to consolidate notes which I had had previously in multiple different places, to end up in this one document to be improved over time.
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