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World Economy 2010

World Economy 2010

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Published by: dương_linh_16 on Feb 18, 2011
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World Economic Situationand Prospects 2010
Global outlook 
asdf
United NationsNew York, 2009
PRE-RELEASE
E   M   B   A  R   G   O  :  2   D  e  c  e  m  b  e  r  2  0  0  9  1  1  :  0  0   a  m  N   e  w   Y   o  r  k   
http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wesp.html
 
Tis report is a joint product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), the United Nations Conference on rade and Development (UNCAD)and the five United Nations regional commissions (Economic Commission for Africa(ECA), Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), Economic Commission for Latin Amer-ica and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)).For further information, please see http://www.un.org/esa/policy or contact:Mr. Rob VosDirectorDevelopment Policy and Analysis DivisionDepartment of Economic and Social AffairsRoom DC2-2020United Nations,New York, NY 10017, USA Phone: +1-212-9634838Fax: +1-212-9631061Email: vos@un.org
Pre-Release
 This is a pre-release o Chapter I o the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2010, issued on 2December 2009 in New York. The ull report, including regional overviews and a detailed analysiso trends in global trade and fnance will be available rom the second ull week o January 2010
 
iii
Contents
I Global outlook .................................................................................................................................................. 1
Macroeconomic prospects for the world economy .................................................................................................... 1Growth prospects ............................................................................................................................................... 2
 
Outlook for employment, inflation and global poverty
........................................................................................ 8
International economic conditions for developing countries and the economies in transition .................... 11International finance ......................................................................................................................................... 12International trade ............................................................................................................................................. 14Policy responses ................................................................................................................................................................... 16Financial sector rescue measures ................................................................................................................... 16Monetary policy ................................................................................................................................................. 18Fiscal policy.......................................................................................................................................................... 19Have the policies worked? ............................................................................................................................... 23Uncertainties and risks ....................................................................................................................................................... 24Risk of an early retreat from stimulus measures ........................................................................................ 24Risks of widening global imbalances and dollar decline ......................................................................... 27Policy challenges.................................................................................................................................................................. 31Sustainable global rebalancing ...................................................................................................................... 31Strengthening policy coordination ............................................................................................................... 33Reforming the global reserve system ........................................................................................................... 35
Appendix
Appendix tables ................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Boxes
I. 1 Main assumptions for the baseline forecast ................................................................................................................ 3I. 2 Prospects for the least developed countries ................................................................................................................ 7
Figures
I. 1 World economic growth, 2004–2010 ............................................................................................................................. 5I. 2 Daily yield spreads on emerging market bonds, January 2005–October 2009 .................................................. 13I. 3 Bank lending to the private sector in emerging markets, December 2007–June 2009 .................................... 13I. 4 Index of world trade volume and industrial production, January 2007–August 2009 ...................................... 15I. 5 Gross domestic product growth under the Global Policy Model scenario simulations, 2005–2015 .............. 26I. 6 Current-account balances, 2004–2010........................................................................................................................... 27I. 7 Net international investment position of the United States, 1976–2009 .............................................................. 29I. 8 Exchange-rate indices for the United States, January 2002–October 2009 .......................................................... 30

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