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20080204

20080204

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Published by Soren Dayton
Public Opinion Strategies' document on voting groups
Public Opinion Strategies' document on voting groups

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Published by: Soren Dayton on Aug 21, 2008
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06/14/2009

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February 4, 2008
Stay in the political “family” long enough and you will see hot votertarget groups come and go faster than characters on
The Sopranos 
get killed off.Much like the FBI agents tailing mobsters, Public Opinion Strategieshas been keeping tabs on the voter sub-groups we suspect willdetermine whether candidates end up being the Boss or areswimming with the fishes.
THE HIT LISTFOR 2008
 WANTED
SOCCER MOMS?NASCAR DADS?GET OUTTA HERE.THEYRE DEAD TO US. Wal-Mart WomenRehabRepublicansFacebookIndependents
 
 WAL-MART WOMEN
KEY POINT ABOUT THESE VOTERS...
Wal-Mart women are in rural and suburban areas, and are more likelyto live in the South than any other region – in large part explaining theirtendency to be more culturally conservative and more religious thanwomen overall.
 WE’RE WATCHING THEM BECAUSE...
The quintessential swing voters, Wal-Mart women are more likely toidentify themselves as Democrats rather than Republicans (by a 14point margin), but they supported President Bush in 2004 by a 14 pointmargin. They are extremely negative about the direction of thecountry, and due to their socio-economic roots, the economy will beimportant in their vote decision.
17% of all voters 
REHAB REPUBLICANS
KEY POINT ABOUT THESE VOTERS...
These voters are much more moderate than the base of the party.While 76% of “strong” Republicans describe themselves as politicallyconservative, just 47% of rehab Republicans say the same.
 WE’RE WATCHING THEM BECAUSE...
These voters SAY they will vote for a Republican candidate forpresident when forced to choose in a ballot test on a poll. But the realquestion is whether they will show up to vote or not. Their interest inthe 2008 election is a full 16 points lower than “strong” Republicans,and 21 points lower than “strong” Democrats.
11% of all voters 
If Tony Soprano’s job
really 
was in waste disposal,then his wife might be in this category. Women whoshop at Wal-Mart once a week or more tend to belower income, less well educated, more likely to workin hourly wage jobs or be retired than theircounterparts who primarily shop at Target.These voters are most likely to want to be in a witnessprotection program right now. Unhappy with the warin Iraq and/or disillusioned with President Bush, thesevoters are having a hard time dealing with the state ofthe GOP. Depending on the nominee, they may comeback into the “family” or simply disappear.

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