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Catalyst Calendar February 2011

Catalyst Calendar February 2011

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Published by mapsinger
Los pagos de la deuda soberana ante una contracción de la demanda impulsada por China
Los pagos de la deuda soberana ante una contracción de la demanda impulsada por China

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Published by: mapsinger on Feb 28, 2011
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02/28/2011

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Catalyst Calendar: A Sovereign RoadmapFebruary 2011
Charles Mounts
203-930-7279cmounts@knight.com
Brian Yelvington
203-930-7281byelvington@knight.com
Please see analyst's certification and important disclosures in Appendix A of this report.
 
For more information visit www.knight.com
Latent and Active Catalysts
Three Threats
2
Slowdown inChinese DemandCentral BankPolicyMisstepsSovereign Debt Crisis
 
For more information visit www.knight.com
Slowdown in Chinese Demand
3
5791113151719212325
Mar-94Dec-94Sep-95Jun-96Mar-97Dec-97Sep-98Jun-99Mar-00Dec-00Sep-01Jun-02Mar-03Dec-03Sep-04Jun-05Mar-06Dec-06Sep-07Jun-08Mar-09Dec-09Sep-10
Loan GrowthGDP Growth791113151719
Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08Mar-09Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10Jun-10Sep-10Dec-10
Chinese RequiredReserve Ratio
Chinese Required Reserve Ratio for Major Banks
Source: The People’s Bank of China; Bloomberg; Knight Research
Chinese Loan and GDP Growth
(% Change YoY)
NYT article 2/2/2011 stating China ispoised to hike rates within one month
Mixed PMI data recently; new 5M lowand second consecutive decline forJanuary
Chinese press reported 2/1/2011 thatthe PBOC may implement price controlsto stabilize inflation
PBOC may be backing away fromdifferentiated RRR in 2011 as liquidity istight (around New Year)
Salient Questions:
Is China like Japan in that it absorbsmore global growth than itprovides?
How much will the RE and bankingsectors be shielded from aslowdown?
Is it a normal cycle or a bubble?

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