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In this letter, we propose a Cellular Automata using Vector Quantization Learning for predicting hot mudflow spreading area. The purpose of this study is to determine inundated area in the future. Cellular Automata is an easy approach to describe the complex states of hot mudflow disaster that have some characteristics such as occurring on the urban area, levees and surface thermal changing. Furthermore, the Vector Quantization learning determines mass transport in the surrounding area in accordance with equilibrium state using clustering of landslide. Evaluating of prediction result uses ASTER/DEM and SPOT/HRV imaging. Comparison study shows that this approach obtains better results to show inundated area in this disaster.

In this letter, we propose a Cellular Automata using Vector Quantization Learning for predicting hot mudflow spreading area. The purpose of this study is to determine inundated area in the future. Cellular Automata is an easy approach to describe the complex states of hot mudflow disaster that have some characteristics such as occurring on the urban area, levees and surface thermal changing. Furthermore, the Vector Quantization learning determines mass transport in the surrounding area in accordance with equilibrium state using clustering of landslide. Evaluating of prediction result uses ASTER/DEM and SPOT/HRV imaging. Comparison study shows that this approach obtains better results to show inundated area in this disaster.

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(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 9, No. 2, February 2011

A New Approach of Probabilistic Cellular AutomataUsing Vector Quantization Learning for PredictingHot Mudflow Spreading Area

Kohei Arai

Department of Information ScienceSaga UniversitySaga, JapanEmail: arai@is.saga-u.ac.jp

Achmad Basuki

1) Department of Information Science, Saga University2) Electronic Engineering Polytechnic Institute of Surabaya (EEPIS), IndonesiaEmail: basuki@eepis-its.edu

Abstract

In this letter, we propose a Cellular Automata usingVector Quantization Learning for predicting hot mudflowspreading area. The purpoe of this study is to determineinundated area in the future. Cellular Automata is an easyapproach to describe the complex states of hot mudflow disasterthat have some characteristics such as occurring on the urbanarea, levees and surface thermal changing. Furthermore, theVector Quantization learning determines mass transport in thesurrounding area in accordance with equilibrium state usingclustering of landslide. Evaluating of prediction result usesASTER/DEM and SPOT/HRV imaging. Comparison study showsthat this approach obtains better results to show inundated areain this disaster.

Keywords:

Probabilistic cellular automata, vector quantization,hot mudflow spreading, prediction, mass transport Introduction

I.

I

NTRODUCTION

Simulating hot mudflow in the plane and urban area requiresunderstanding how the surface changing properties vary withtime and space. In order to generate complex flow aboutinteractions between natural and human made topography, weneed the model of the main mechanical features of hot muddepending on landscape data. Another difficulty is to computethe simulation of hot mudflow at acceptable rates. However,they are difficult to apply in general conditions.Argentini [1] introduced a CA approach to simulate fluiddynamic with some obstacles and fluid flow parameters. Thisapproach used basic rules in the two-dimensional spaces.Vicari [2] introduce CA approach to simulate lava flow. Thisapproach used Newtonian fluid dynamic concept.Combination of both approach obtained a discrete approachfor predicting hot mudflow [3]. This approach yielded correctlocation and direction of hazardous area, but the intersectionarea between prediction area and real area of hazardous area isaround 36.44%. This approach is a deterministic approachbased on Cellular Automata to estimate the areas potentiallyexposed to hot mudflow inundation, concentrate mudflowcharacteristics, combine fluid flow and lava flow properties,and neglect difficulty to describe a model of complex humanmade landscape data and random behavior of state changing.The previous approach assumes that hot mudflow has similarcharacteristics to lava flow such as thermal changing, fluidmass transport rules and material mixing.It is difficult to describe some physical phenomena caused bycomplex human made landscape objects such as levees,buildings, and other environmental properties. Avolio et al. [4]have proposed an alternative Cellular using minimizationdifferences to simulate lava flow. This approach hasstochastically state changing. The key-point of this approach iseasy to develop. Recently, D’Ambrossio et al. [5] and DelNegro et al. [6] have applied the stochastic approach tosimulate soil erosion. This approach also uses minimizationdifferences based on Cellular Automata for other fluid flowphenomena. The idea of the use of the stochastic approachmakes the alternative approach describe complex landscapeobject problems on the hot mudflow disaster [7]. The problemof this idea is how to fix probability value of mass transport oneach neighbor-cell.The aim of this letter is a new approach of cellular automatamodel for predicting hazardous area in the hot mudflowdisaster. This approach uses some ideas such as minimizationdifference model and vector quantization to make cluster of mass transport possibility depend on altitude, height of mudand plant [8]. Because of cluster continuity by vectorquantization, it looks like the statistical behavior of landscapeobject in the urban area. Vector Quantization determinescluster of inundated area [9] that makes flow difference inneighborhood area easy to define in probability values. Asimilar approach has not yet been undertaken for mudflow andlava flow in any other place, which appeared in the landslidearea. However, a simple cellular automata approach isconsidered there.Simulation results use the landscape map using ASTER DEM,and initial parameters of hot mudflow. This paper shows somesimulation result on map view in the varying time andpercentage of predicting performances. We also show thecomparison of predicting on inundated area and direction withthe other previous approach.

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(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 9, No. 2, February 2011

II.

O

VERVIEW OF

F

LUID

D

YNAMIC

C

ELLULAR

A

UTOMATA

Most numerical approaches to modeling landscapeevolution simulate the physical flow such as mass transport of fluid particles, erosive effects of water discharge, infiltrationand absorption by solving complex differential equations. CAis an alternative approach to simulate fluid flow using a simpleapproach. The current implementation is primarily based onD’Ambrossio et al. [5] because it uses "very simpleapproximations intended to describe complex geographicaleffect" and it able to offer "insight into how thermal andviscous fluid parameter affects the evolution of landscapes"despite its simplicity.The CA algorithm simulates first-order processesassociated with fluvial erosion by iteratively applying a set of simplified rules to individual cells of a digital topographic grid[10]. The state represents a number of fluid particles in thetopographic grid, and the subsequent movement and behavior(diffusion, and erosion) of the cell is controlled by the rules anda few parameters of the current cell and its surroundingneighbors [11]. The same rules are applied to all grid cells, i.e.,there is no outside-imposed distinction between slope andchannel; the model forms its own channels [11].Figure 1 illustrates how the algorithm works. For example,fluid particles move to lower elevations, simulating fluid flowin the landslide grid. There are two varying flows; erosion anddiffusion. The amount of erosion and diffusion each producesis proportional to the local slope, simulating speedier erosion of steeper slopes and lesser erosion of hard rock surfaces.

Figure 1. Schematic diagram showing how CA model works

Xiaoming Wei [12] introduced the simple CA approach forhighly viscous fluid. Its movement is mainly a result of gravity,viscosity damping and friction. This approach uses fourvariables to indicate the expanding potential of a liquid cell;there is solid, liquid, amount of material and energy. Setting acertain threshold for this variable enables to control theexpanding behavior of the liquid. For each liquid cell, if itsenergy is higher than a certain threshold, it has the potential tospread along its horizontal neighboring cells [17]. Thisapproach uses four nearest neighbors and four second nearestneighbors.Another CA approach to simulate fluid flow uses theminimization difference approach that was introduced byAvolio [4] and D’Ambrossio [5]. This approach is onealternative approach to solve fluid dynamic withoutsophisticated mathematical formulation. It obtains asatisfactory model to simulate the lava flow with variousparameters such as viscosity and surface thermal changing.This approach is powerful to simulate fluid flow and easy todevelop.III.

P

ROPOSED

A

PPROACH

A.

General Characteristic of Hot Mudflow Disaster

On 29 May 2006, the gas exploration operation had causedcauldron of hot mud in 6.3 km depth spray out hot mud tosurrounding areas on Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia(7.530553°S; 112.709684° E) [13][14]. This disaster located atthe urban area near Sidoarjo (Figure 2-top). Hot mud hadspilled over 5000 m3 per-day. It increased over 170,000 m

3

per-day as reported by Cyranoski [15] and over 150,000 m

3

asreported by Harsaputra [16].

Figure 2. The location of hot mudflow disaster

Hot mudflow had an immense impact on environment,economic and human resource in the future if nocountermeasure is conducted (Figure 2-bottom) [17]. Withinthe first two years, the mud flow disaster destroy some villages,farm lands, factories and public facilities such as schools,markets, roads, water pipes and gas pipes. Over 17,000 peoplehad lost their houses and jobs. If facts, approximately mudblows out 150,000 m3 per-day with the assumption thatcontains 70% by water. This implies that water come out by687,000 barrel a day. This situation is different from somedisaster areas where the previously occurred other locationsbecause it has overmuch mud [18].

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(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 9, No. 2, February 2011

Although one possible solution is spillway to Porong River,it does cost and takes a long time and vast human resource.Therefore, strong demands on prediction of mudflow spreadingvolume and mudflow disaster area as well as on how toevacuate from the area of which the levee that was constructedto prevent mudflow spillover are there for people who areliving in the disaster areas. If inundated area are predictedbefore the mud comes, the Indonesia government makescountermeasures to reducing the impact.This simulation uses map on February 2008 (Figure 3a) asinitial map and map on August 2008 as target map (Figure 3b).This map is landscape approximation using ASTER/DEM andthe height data on the some observation points. The map size isapproximate 3.705km×4.036km. The red area is mud inundatedarea. In this simulation, mud blows from the main crater (bighole) that has a diameter around 20m [8], and mud moves toother locations depend on slope difference and mudflowparameters. The key process is mass transport that defines theamount of mud moving.(a) (b)

Figure 3. (a) Initial map on February 2008, (b) target map on August 2008

B.

Model Definition

This model is 2D CA model. It uses two-dimensional gridsto describe set of cells. The state of cell

S

is floating point valuethat shows the amount of mud and soil particles. In thisresearch, we define two-type variables of state; the amount of mud

s

t

(x,y)

and the amount of soil

h

t

(x,y)

. Mud is movingmaterial. It moves from one cell to its neighbors usingprobability of move

p

mov

. The other hand, the small part of mudalso changes into the soil using probability of deposition

p

vis

.The model state is as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4. Mud and soil states.

C.

Model Definition

In this research, we use probability Cellular Automatabased on Minimization Differences [5][7] as the mainapproach. The algorithm of Minimizatin Differences is asfollow:(a)

A is the set of cell not eliminated. Its initial value is set tothe number of its neighbors. Each cell on position (i,j)has two components such as soil and mud. The height of them are

g

ij

and

s

ij

. Total height of this cell is:

h

ij

= g

ij

+s

ij

. There is dynamic soil

u

ij

, but it is the small portion of soil and we adjust on normal distribution of

p

m

.(b)

The average height is found for the set of A of non-eliminated cells:1.

++=

∑

∈

AAiiic

nhchm

(1)Where:

h

c

is height of the center cell.

h

i

is height of the non-eliminated neighbor cells.

n

A

is number of non-eliminated neighbor cells.

c

is current mass-transport weighting from the learningprocess.(c)

The cells with height larger than average height areeliminated from A.(d)

Go to step (b) until no cell is to be eliminated.(e)

The flows, which minimize the height differences locally,are such that the new height of the non-eliminated cell isthe value of the average weighting height.

AAiii

nhch

∑

=

.(2)When we used probability adjustment depend on heightdifferences in the previous research, we use VectorQuantization learning to make cluster space of mass transportas a probability adjustment in the neighborhood area. We selectsome points in the previous map and the nearest points in thecurrent map as paired point. We use standard competitivelearning to determine height of points around the surroundingarea.(3)Where:

new

c

is a new inundated point in the surrounding area.

old

c

is an inundated point in the previous map.

pair

c

is an inundated point in the current map.

τ

is a learning rate.In each point, there are some parameters that influence of mass transport on simulation process such as altitude (groundheight), mud height and landslide [8]. Because of thediscontinuous distribution of abrupt mass movement hazards[19], VQ obtains an alternative method to quickly assess thedegree of hazard for each unit. It creates groups withoutconsidering whether or not the units in the same group arecontinuously distributed. Figure 5 shows the processingschema of hot mudflow spreading simulation. The learningprocess using vector quantization determines a cluster spacethat describes the probability of mass transport. The probability

( )

old pair old new

cccc

++=

τ

s

t

(x,y)h

t

(x,y)p

vis

p

mov

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