(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 9, No. 2, February 2011
Although one possible solution is spillway to Porong River,it does cost and takes a long time and vast human resource.Therefore, strong demands on prediction of mudflow spreadingvolume and mudflow disaster area as well as on how toevacuate from the area of which the levee that was constructedto prevent mudflow spillover are there for people who areliving in the disaster areas. If inundated area are predictedbefore the mud comes, the Indonesia government makescountermeasures to reducing the impact.This simulation uses map on February 2008 (Figure 3a) asinitial map and map on August 2008 as target map (Figure 3b).This map is landscape approximation using ASTER/DEM andthe height data on the some observation points. The map size isapproximate 3.705km×4.036km. The red area is mud inundatedarea. In this simulation, mud blows from the main crater (bighole) that has a diameter around 20m , and mud moves toother locations depend on slope difference and mudflowparameters. The key process is mass transport that defines theamount of mud moving.(a) (b)
Figure 3. (a) Initial map on February 2008, (b) target map on August 2008
This model is 2D CA model. It uses two-dimensional gridsto describe set of cells. The state of cell
is floating point valuethat shows the amount of mud and soil particles. In thisresearch, we define two-type variables of state; the amount of mud
and the amount of soil
. Mud is movingmaterial. It moves from one cell to its neighbors usingprobability of move
. The other hand, the small part of mudalso changes into the soil using probability of deposition
.The model state is as shown in Figure 4.
Figure 4. Mud and soil states.
In this research, we use probability Cellular Automatabased on Minimization Differences  as the mainapproach. The algorithm of Minimizatin Differences is asfollow:(a)
A is the set of cell not eliminated. Its initial value is set tothe number of its neighbors. Each cell on position (i,j)has two components such as soil and mud. The height of them are
. Total height of this cell is:
. There is dynamic soil
, but it is the small portion of soil and we adjust on normal distribution of
The average height is found for the set of A of non-eliminated cells:1.
is height of the center cell.
is height of the non-eliminated neighbor cells.
is number of non-eliminated neighbor cells.
is current mass-transport weighting from the learningprocess.(c)
The cells with height larger than average height areeliminated from A.(d)
Go to step (b) until no cell is to be eliminated.(e)
The flows, which minimize the height differences locally,are such that the new height of the non-eliminated cell isthe value of the average weighting height.
.(2)When we used probability adjustment depend on heightdifferences in the previous research, we use VectorQuantization learning to make cluster space of mass transportas a probability adjustment in the neighborhood area. We selectsome points in the previous map and the nearest points in thecurrent map as paired point. We use standard competitivelearning to determine height of points around the surroundingarea.(3)Where:
is a new inundated point in the surrounding area.
is an inundated point in the previous map.
is an inundated point in the current map.
is a learning rate.In each point, there are some parameters that influence of mass transport on simulation process such as altitude (groundheight), mud height and landslide . Because of thediscontinuous distribution of abrupt mass movement hazards, VQ obtains an alternative method to quickly assess thedegree of hazard for each unit. It creates groups withoutconsidering whether or not the units in the same group arecontinuously distributed. Figure 5 shows the processingschema of hot mudflow spreading simulation. The learningprocess using vector quantization determines a cluster spacethat describes the probability of mass transport. The probability
old pair old new
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