of the Fiscal Impact of Canada’s
Proposed Acquisition of theF-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter
Independent Peer-Review Panel
Andrew Davies, Ph.D.
Program Director; Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)Visiting Lecturer, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian NationalUniversity (ANU), Canberra AUSTRALIA
Douglas Bland, Ph.D.
Professor and Chair of Defence Management Studies,
David A. Arthur, Ph.D.
Principal Analyst, National Security Division,United States Congressional BudgetOffice (CBO), Washington DC USA
Note to Reader:
The Parliament of Canada Act mandates the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) toprovide independent analysis to the Senate and House of Commons on the state of the
nation’s finances, the government’s estimates, and trends in the national economy.
Given the size and scope of the proposed expenditure, the request is consistent with the
PBO’s mandate to support Parliamentarians in providing independent analysis on thestate of the nation’s finances and scrutiny of the Estimates (i.e. Planned Expenditures).
The cost estimates and observations presented in this report represent a preliminary setof data for discussion and may change, as detailed financial and non-financial data aremade available to the PBO by the Department of National Defence or by variousagencies of the Government of the United States of America and other parties. The costestimates and observations included reflect a point-in-time set of observations based onlimited and high level data obtained from publicly available documents. These high-levelcost estimates and observations are not to be viewed as conclusions in relation to thepolicy merits of the proposed military equipment acquisition.PBO has contracted with an independent firm to provide specialized expertise in costmodelling and estimating. Decision Analysis Services (DAS) Limited of the UK employs aproprietary model that houses a database of military aircraft program costs going backthirty years. Where possible, the PBO has provided input factors to DAS and, as a result,the PBO has received output that informs the PBO's analysis. Notwithstanding this,responsibility for all of the costing outputs, analysis, and conclusions rests solely withthe PBO.The authors would like to thank the members of the independent peer review panel aswell as a significant number of current and former public officials, who have chosen tomaintain the anonymity of their current or former employers, for their comments andguidance. The authors would also like to thank Richard Aboulafia of Teal Group andJeremiah Gertler of the Congressional Research Service for their advice and supportthroughout the development of the study. The advice and guidance of the members of the peer review panel imply no responsibility for the final product, which rests solelywith the Parliamentary Budget Officer.