ArmstrongEconomicsForecasting
t.he
World
By:
Har
t
LnA.ArmstrongCOpyright
An
RightsReserved
Mlrch
1st,
2011
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Pleasesendcommentsbymailto:PleaseREGISTERforSpecialUpdatesMartinA.ArmstrongFCPFortDixCamp#12518-050POBox2000FortDix,NJ08640ArmstrongEconomics.COMCopyrightMartinA.ArmstrongAllRightsReserved
ThisReportmaybe,forwardedasyoulikewithoutchargetoindividualsorgovernmentsaroundtheworld.
It
isprovidedasaPublicService
~t
thistimewithoutcostbe~auseofthecriticalfactsthat
we
nowfacedeconomicall~.ThecontentSand'designsofthesystemsareinfactcopyrighted.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSIwouldliketothankall~heformeremployees,associates,sources,andcontactsforthei~ongoingsupporta~deffortstocontributetothewritingsIhavebeenabletocontinue'throughtheirgreatefforts.Iwouldalsolike,tothankthosewhohavelookedafternotjustmyself,butmyfamily,andshownthemsUPP9ttandkindness.'Thepurposeofthesereportsistobrodentheunderstandingthatissovitaltoourpersonalsurvival.Governmentcannotsaveus,andwillonlyassist-theveryeconomicdisasterweface.ThisisaSovereignDebtCrisisthatthreatensourcoresurvival.Thereisnoplantoeverpayoffdebts.Themajorityofdebtincreaseispayinginterestperpetuallytorolloverwithoutanylong-termplan.WhatyouseeinGreeceandintheStates,wehaverunoutofotherpeople'smoney.Thesocialistskeeppointingtotherich.Buttofundthedeficits,weneedtoborrownowfromforeignlands.WeranoutofmoneydomesticallyandtosupportthecurrentsystemlikeGreece,weneedforeigncapital.Butallgovernmentsarefacingthesamecrisisandweareonthevergeofanotherwidespreadgovernmentdefault.AdamSmithwarnedinhisWealthofNationsthatin1776,nogovernmentpaidofftheirdebtandhadalwaysdefaulted.Wewillhavenochoiceeither.Thereisnohopethatpoliticianswillsaveus,fortheyonlyformcommitteestoinvestigataftertheshit-hits-the-fan.TheywillNOTrisktheircareerforafutureproblemthatmayhitonsomeoneelse'swatch.TherewasapoliticianandaaveragemanstandingontopoftheSears'Towerwhenagustofwindblewthemoff.Theaveragemanbeingarealistic-pessimist,immediatelyseesheisabouttodieandbeginspraying.Thepoliticians,theultimateoptimist,canbeheardsaying"Wellsofarsogood!"ashepassesthe4thfloor.AtPrincetonEconomics,ourmissionwassimplytogatherglobaldataandtobringthattogethertocreatetheworld'slargestandmostcomprehensivecomputersystemandmodelthatwouldmonitortheworldcapitalflows.Bycreatingthatmodel,allthefallaciesofmarketandeconomictheorieswererevealed.Theworldisfarmoredynamicandeverychangeeveninadistantlandcanalterthecourseoftheglobaleeconomy.JustashasbeenshownwiththeturmoilinGreece,aCONTAGIONtakesplaceandnowcapitalbeginstolookaroundatallcountries.Wecannomorecomprehendthefuturebutlookingonlyatdomesticissuestodaythanwecandosoineveryotherarea,suchasdiseaseandthespreadofflus.r,veliveinaNEWDYNAMICGLOBALECONOMYwherecapitalrushesaroundfleeingpoliticalchangesandtaxesjustasitisattractedbyprosperity.AllthepeoplewhomigratedtotheUnitedStatesinthe19thand20thCenturies,cameforthesamereasonsasthosestillcomingfromMexico-jobsandprosperity.Inthe19thCentury,Americawassaidtohavesomuchwealth,itsstreetswerepavedingold.Wemustnowlooktoboththepai?tandtheentireworldtounderstandwherewenowaretoday,
By:
Martin
A.
ArmstrongFormerChairmanof
Princeton
EconomicS
International,
Ltd.
andtheFoundationForTheStudyOf
Cycles
RYINGtocomprehendtheglobaleconomyseemssometimesdifficultformanyperhapsbecausetheyaresohardwiredintolookingattheworldthroughonlytheirownperspective,itappearsthatitisoftenhopelesstoadvancetothenextlevelofknowledge.Inall
r
eaLi.t
y,
thereare
two
SEPARATEforceswithinallmarketsandeconomiesthatmustbeapproachedindividually-
HOW
&
WHEN!
Thismeansthat
TIME
neverchanges,butthepatternsasto
HOW
theeventwillunfoldisadifferentanalysisaltogether.Thefirstcanbescientific,wherethelattercanatti.mesbecomeanartformandgovernedbySUBJECTIVEanalysisthatembracesexperience.Therefore,understandingthedifferencebetween
HOW
&
WHEN
analysisisverycriticalfortoseethefuture,requiresthecomprehensionofboth.Thenthereistheinternationalunderstandingofcapitalflowsthatbroadenthehorizonaltogether.Inthee.ady80s,weopenedanofficeinGeneva.Thatwastheplacetobebackthen.OPECwasthecenteroftheworld.After1985,theactionbegantoshifttoJapan.By1987,theveryTOPbrokersofallthefirmswho
I
hadmetinGeneva,migratedandwerenowworkinginTokyo.After.JapanexplodedfromitsBubbleTopinDecember1989.theyrnovedtoSingapore.What
I
was\vitnessingwasthenatural
f
Lowofcapitalonagloballevel.
Honey
migrateslikeaherdofwildanimals.This
is
theessenceofthe:Economi.cConfidenceModel.
I
havestatedmanytimes,this.is
NOT
themodelbaseduponanyindividualmarket.Itisthemodelthattrackstheebbs.an4flowsof
oap
i.t'alonaglobalscale.Theinterestingaspectofthismodelisthateachandeverymarkethasits
OWN
model.Itmaybeattractedtotheturningpointsinageneralsense,but
ONLY
whenitlines
up
withthemodeldoesthissuggestthatthat
PARTICULAR.
marketis
go
i.ngtobethetargetofcapital
f
Lows,Peoplewhoeitherdonotunderstandtheglobaleconomyoraredesperatetotrytodiscreditcyclesingeneral,alwayspointtothe
ECM.
andthentrytomapitagainstaparticularmarkettoclaimitdoesnot
wor
k,ItwasNOTderivedfromamarketanditistracking
ONLYtheHOTmoneyGLOBALLY!
Eachandeverymarkethasitsownpuretimingfrequencies.Someareshorterwhtleothersareextremelylong.Thisisthecase
when
lookingatagriculturalmarketsthatswinginpricedramaticallyfortheyaremorecloselycorrelatedto"Featherthansaytherealestatecycle.TheECMtnnowayalterstheindividualfrequenciesofanymarket,andthatincludesgold.Therealimportanceofthe
ECM
isitsabilitytopi.npointthe
HOTMONEY.
Anymarketwillbecomehotandthenit1-lElbehighlypopularandthatattractscapitalconcentratinginthatsectorcausingasurgeinprices.Thisisstandardinallcountri.esbeitthebubbleinTokyofor1989.95,therailroadstocksofthe19thcentury.theDOT.COMfor2000,ortheautostocksfortheGreatDepreSSion.Capitalactslike
a
herdofwildanimals.Itrunstogetherintrends,
and
it
will
suddenlypanicandchangedirectioninastampede.
THEIMPORTAN'lASPECI'OFTHEECMISTOSEEWHATCORRELATES
wrm:
IT,FOR
'1'HEN
CAPITAL
WIll.
REVEAL
THE
NEXTHOTMARKET,SEC'i'OR,COUNTRY,
OR
REGION!
Itis
NOT
mappingasinglemarkettotheECH.
1
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