Broschuere Klimawandel Alpen en

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ALPS
Facts - Impacts - Adaptation

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Date: December 2007

First print: 5,000 copies
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CONTENTS
04 Foreword by Michael Müller and Dr. Otmar Bernhard 4
Foreword by Dr. Marco Onida 6
08 I. THE SCIENTIFIC BASES

The Facts in Brief 10
Climate Change in the Alps 12
Precipitation 14
Snow 17
Extreme events 19
Possible Climatic Changes in the Alpine Region 22
by Dr. Daniela Jacob, Holger Göttel, Sven Kotlarski and Philip Lorenz
KomPass Competence Centre on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation 28
30 II. THE IMPACTS

Ecosystems 32
Forests and woodland 36
Agriculture 38
Alpine Ecosystems and Climate Change: Facts and Forecasts 40
by Georg Grabherr, Michael Gottfried and Harald Pauli
Climate Change Projects in Berchtesgaden National Park 42
Glaciers 46
Glaciers, the Water Cycle and Water Yield 48
by Dr. Ludwig Braun and Dr. Markus Weber
Glaciers in the Greenhouse and Glacier Archive 56
Natural hazards 57
The Platform on Natural Hazards of the Alpine Convention (PLANALP) 60
The ”ClimChAlp” project 62
Health 64
Tourism 67
Is the new Alpine winter approaching? 70
by Dr. Dominik Siegrist
74 III. THE ALPINE CONVENTION

The Significance of the Alpine Convention for the Bavarian Authorities 76
by Karlheinz Weissgerber
Climate Protection in Bavaria 80
Alpine Network of Protected Areas (ALPARC) 84
CIPRA – Life in the Alps 88
International Scientific Committee on Research in the Alps (ISCAR) 89
”Alliance in the Alps” local authority network 90
94 Links and Literature 94
>>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < < 3>>

FOREWORD
by Michael Müller and Dr. Otmar Bernhard
Dear Readers,
landscape within such a relatively

small region. In addition, in the
Alps it is becoming very clear that
some negative impacts of climate
change can no longer be avoided.
According to the latest model cal-

culations, the Alps must anticipate
a warming twice as high as the
general German average. The risk
of extreme weather events will in-
crease. The Alps will be particu-
Michael Müller Dr. Otmar Bernhard larly affected by the impacts of cli-
mate change:
Everyone is talking about climate ˘ an increase in the probability

change, but what does it mean for of heat waves, as in summer
the Alpine environment? Which 2003
changes can be expected? And ˘ an increasing trend towards
which adaptations are necessary heavy precipitation and floods
and realistic? ˘ an upward shift of biological
zones, with many Alpine flora
The impacts of climate change at risk
pose some of the greatest threats ˘ glacier retreat on a massive
to the Alpine mountain ecosys- scale
tem. Nature reacts particularly ˘ changed risk potential of natu-
sensitively here, because nowhere ral hazards such as rock falls
else in Europe will you find so ˘ strong decrease in the snow re-
many sensitive areas of natural liability of many winter sport
regions

In view of these developments, the the federal state of Bavaria are This Background Paper presents
Alpine countries have identified centred around a preventive two- the most up-to-date information
climate policy and the develop- track strategy: mitigation and ad- on anticipated climatic changes
ment of adaptation strategies for aptation, i.e. reducing greenhouse and appropriate adaptation strat-
the Alpine region as the key focus gas emissions on the one hand egies with direct relevance to the
of their cooperation in the com- while researching regional cli- Alpine region. It also highlights
ing years. On the occasion of the mate change and the implemen- the opportunities available to the
IXth Alpine Conference in Novem- tation of adaptation strategies on Alpine Convention to strengthen
ber 2006, their environment min- the other. The local level will play transboundary cooperation on
isters adopted a Declaration on a key role in solving future prob- these issues at municipal level, es-
climate change in the Alps and, lems in mountain regions. pecially an exchange of experi-
to promote implementation of the ence through the Alliance in the
Declaration, requested the Alpine The Federal Ministry for the En- Alps local authority network.
Convention‘s Standing Committee vironment, Nature Conservation
to produce an action plan contain- and Nuclear Safety (BMU) and the The Alpine region has immense
ing recommendations for activi- Bavarian State Ministry of the potential to position itself as a
ties specific to the Alpine region Environment, Public Health and best-practice region for climate
in time for the Xth Alpine Confer- Consumer Protection (StMUGV) protection in future.
ence in 2009. therefore extend a cordial invita-
tion to the municipalities in Ba- We want to make this our joint
The climate protection concepts varia‘s Alpine region to address concern.
of the Federal Government and these complex and increasingly
acute issues together.
Michael Müller Dr. Otmar Bernhard
Parliamentary State Secretary, Bavarian State Minister,

Federal Ministry for the Environ- Bavarian State Ministry of the
ment, Nature Conservation and Environment, Public Health and
Nuclear Safety (BMU) Consumer Protection (StMUGV)

FOREWORD
by Dr. Marco Onida
Dear Readers,
Dr. Marco Onida
Climate change is now widely The Alpine Convention, as a multi- ones on mountain forests (adopted
recognized among the scientific lateral framework Treaty between in 1996) and energy (adopted in
and political communities to be the eight States of the Alpine bow, 1998), directly address the issue
accelerated by human activities. can play a fundamental role in of climate change. Other Proto-
Awareness is widespread, and pos- this context. Its main objective is cols, such as the one on transport
sible actions for the prevention to protect the Alpine territory and adopted in 2000, although not
and adaptation to climate change to safeguard the interests of peo- mentioning climate change direct-
are on the agenda of several de- ple inhabiting it, embracing their ly, pursue objectives which also
cision making bodies, at interna- environmental, social and eco- help decreasing the emissions of
tional, national and local level. nomic dimensions in the broadest greenhouse gas.
sense. In order to achieve its ob-
However, the effects of climate jectives, over the years the frame-
change are not equally spread work Treaty has been equipped
over the different parts of the with a large number of thematic
planet. Some areas are more vul- Protocols on spatial planning, na-
nerable than others, and among ture protection, mountain agri-
the most vulnerable ones, the culture and forests, energy, trans-
mountain areas are certainly to ports, tourism and soil protec-
be mentioned. The effects of cli- tion. Two of these Protocols, the
mate change on mountain re-
gions, including the Alps, are far
more significant and visible than
in many other areas. At the same
time, practically any activity in
the Alps is more closely linked to
their territory than in other ar-
eas: in the sectors of winter tour-
ism, transport, energy produc-
tion, water availability, agricul-
ture, forests, biodiversity (and this
list in certainly not exhaustive)
the impact of climate change is
felt strongly, and its costs are on
the rise.

The multi-annual 2005-2010 Work
Programme of the Alpine Confer-
ence made climate change one of
the key issues for tourism, nature-
related hazard management, hous-
ing development, agriculture and
forestry as well as water manage-
ment. In order to make these polit-
ical commitments a reality, and to Focus is also being put on the Parliament has set up a Commit-
give climate change an even wid- contribution that regional and tee on climate change. The Al-
er recognition in the framework of local authorities can give to pre- pine Convention is cooperating
all policies of the Alpine Conven- vent and adapt to climate change, with these Institutions in order
tion, the IXth Alpine Conference primarily by identifying and dis- to press the point that the Alpine
which was held in Alpbach in No- seminating the existing best prac- areas are, in light of their specific
vember 2006 adopted a declara- tices. experience, a natural early warn-
tion on climate change. It was de- ing system for negative changes
cided that an Action Plan recom- Finally, the 2008 Report on the as well as a laboratory for the im-
mending alpine-specific measures State of the Alps, currently under plementation of adaptation strate-
as well as long-term initiatives preparation, addresses the sub- gies. It is also hoped that this will
against a precise schedule must be ject of water in the Alps and dedi- help steering the European Poli-
prepared by the next Alpine Con- cates a specific chapter to climate cies in the direction of an even
ference in January 2009. The prep- change and water management. greater recognition of the role of
aration of the Action Plan is there- Key issues lie ahead of us, in par- mountain areas, be it in regional,
fore one of the current tasks of ticular regarding the use of wa- transport, water or any other Eu-
the Permanent Secretariat of the ter resources, with an eye to the ropean policy.
Alpine Convention, together with needs of Alpine and surrounding
the French Presidency and the oth- areas, and regarding the impact Germany is one of the world-
er Contracting Parties. Indeed, the of further investments in hydro- leading countries on the climate
adoption of such an Action Plan power plants on the natural envi- change debate. I am personally
represents not only a great chal- ronment. very pleased that the subject of
lenge, but also an opportunity to climate change has been chosen
make the Alpine Convention im- The success of the Alpine Conven- for the 2007 Nationale Alpenta-
pact concretely, in view of preserv- tion in the area of climate change gung and I am convinced that
ing (and, as appropriate) improv- is not an end in itself, but would this will give an important posi-
ing both the Alpine natural terri- also contribute to complying tive contribution to the ongoing
tory and the quality of life of the with the international commit- work towards the adoption of the
people inhabiting the Alps. ments under the United Nations Action Plan of the Alpine Conven-
Framework Convention on Cli- tion on climate change.
mate Change and the Kyoto Pro-
tocol. The Permanent Secretariat
of the Alpine Convention is there-
fore cooperating closely with the
European Instututions. The EC Dr. Marco Onida
Commission has recently issued
a Green Paper on adaptation to Secretary General of the Alpine
climate change. The European Convention

THE SCIENTIFIC BASES
Facts – Models – Forecasts
The Facts ˘ The atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide
in Brief (CO2), methane (CH4) etc. has increased substantially since around 1850.
˘ This increase is human-induced. In the case of CO2, it is mainly caused by the

burning of fossil fuels, with the clearing of forests being a secondary factor.
In the case of methane, the main causes are rice cultivation and cattle farm-
ing.
˘ The climate warmed significantly during the 20th century: the global surface
air temperature rose on average by around 0.6°C. Eleven out of the last 12
years (1995-2006) are among the 12 warmest years on record.
˘ Most of this warming is caused by the increased atmospheric concentration

of CO2 and other anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
˘ It therefore follows that continued emission of greenhouse gases on the

present or on an increased scale would very probably lead to climatic
changes beyond those which occurred in the 20th century.
˘ The scenarios modelled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) for global temperature rise to the end of this century vary between
1.8°C and 4°C, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions trends.
˘ According to current research, Europe‘s future climate will show a signifi-

cant rise in interyear variability, which may result in an increased probabil-
ity of flooding and drought.
˘ In Germany, a trend towards greater warming in winter than in summer can

be observed. Precipitation will also shift to autumn and winter, but will re-
main relatively constant when calculated over the year.

The monitoring and evaluation of clarity within the scientific com- ferred to the extensive specialist
trends and the expected impacts munity that climatic changes are literature listed in the Appendix.
are naturally beset with uncer- taking place. There is now a sci-
tainties; long-term measurement entific consensus that climate Already, also in Europe, the far-
series are often simply not availa- change can be observed and that reaching consequences of climate
ble and cannot be evaluated easily it is mainly caused by human ac- change can be observed. The
due to inaccuracies and location tivity. Regrettably, extreme posi- trend towards warming and the
changes. Nor can a highly com- tions are often cited in the media, altered spatial variability of pre-
plex system such as the Earth‘s such as absurd disaster scenarios cipitation are already having nu-
climate be modelled with abso- or massive downplaying of the sit- merous impacts, such as the re-
lute accuracy. Nonetheless, state- uation, which bear no relation to treat of glaciers and permafrost
of-the-art computer systems come their weight in academic circles. distribution, the lengthening of
close to describing and modelling the vegetation period, and chang-
the climate and can thus make The phenomenon of emerging es in species composition and dis-
predictions about possible future climate change will not be distribution. In the Alps in particu-
trends. In recent years, there has cussed in every detail in this pa- lar, these impacts can already be
therefore been more and more per; interested readers are re- seen very clearly today.

Climate Change the heart of Europe, are showing
above-average sensitivity to cli-
As the Alps are very small when
viewed in a global context, they
in the Alps matic changes. In Germany, the are depicted very poorly in glo-
annual median temperature has bal climate models. The complex
increased by 0.9°C since 1901, but topography and various microcli-
No one notices a change in glo- in the Alps, the temperature in- mates disappear over a 250 km
bal median temperature or the crease is almost twice this figure, grid. With the development of
average frequency of hurricanes. at 1.5°C. This is likely to result in regional climate models, such as
What people do notice is the lo- reduced snow cover and other REMO at the Max Planck Institute
cal manifestations of the global feedback effects. Changes in mac- for Meteorology in Hamburg, at-
climate and its impacts. Climate roscale current conditions would tempts are being made to achieve
is a global system, but its impacts also result in long-term changes more precise climate simulations
are local. Thus it is the local cli- in the distribution of precipita- using higher resolutions. However,
mate which is a key factor for flo- tion in the Alps. climate models are generally beset
ra, fauna and humans. Mountain with uncertainties, with the result
regions, which account for 20- Which predictions can scientists that different climate models pro-
24% of total land area, have high- now venture to make for the Alps‘ duce sometimes highly divergent
ly diverse and species-rich ecosys- climatic future? Which changes behaviour, especially in difficult
tems. The Alps in particular, in are expected to occur? topography such as the Alps.
Badersee lake near Grainau, Upper Bavaria

Dufour Peak in the Pennine Alps,
the highest peak in Switzerland (4,634 m)
Morteratsch Glacier in Switzerland,

the largest glacier by area in the Eastern
Alps
There is a consensus on findings which reveal the following picture:
˘ Decrease in the number of ice and frost days; greater warming of winter than
summer temperatures; precipitation falls as rain rather than snow.
˘ Less summer and more winter precipitation; earlier onset of snowmelt, with a
resultant shift in maximum runoff from spring to winter.
˘ Greater variability of both temperature and precipitation, with an increased

risk of extreme weather conditions.

Precipitation Models for the future develop- sumed that there will be a greater
ment of global circulation predict increase in precipitation over the
Compared with the statements on that further temperature rise will mountain slopes than elsewhere.
temperature trends, the results of result in an increase in atmos- In the mountains, the moist air
modelling precipitation trends for pheric water content, leading to is forced to rise up. It then cools,
the past and the future are still more water vapour in the atmos- condenses and precipitates to
beset with considerable uncer- phere. As water vapour is also a rain. This process removes water
tainties. The differences between greenhouse gas, this will then vapour very effectively from the
these models are often greater cause further warming and could atmosphere, which is why the
than between various future also result in changes in the in- amounts of precipitation in moun-
greenhouse gas emissions scenar- tensity and distribution of precipi- tain regions could increase more
ios. However, a shift away from tation. In mid- and high latitudes, significantly – or, to put it another
summer precipitation towards a higher relative increase in total way, they could experience less
more autumn and winter precipi- precipitation is anticipated, par- drought than elsewhere.
tation is viewed as likely. ticularly in winter. It is also as-

Linear trend of seasonal mean precipitation in the Alps (1901–1990)
%
Winter Spring
30
20
10
Summer Autumn – 10
– 20
– 30
Colours: Trend magnitude in % change per 100 years

Bold contours: 850 m topographic contours
Thick dash-dotted contours: Statistical significance at the 10% level
Source: Schaer, C. and Frei, C. (2005)
In the north-western Alpine areas a decrease in the number of days Württemberg also show a redistri-
in particular, an increase in win- with rainfall in some cases, but bution of the precipitation with-
ter precipitation was observed in an increase in its intensity. The in the seasonal course since 1931:
the 20th century, accompanied by results of the cooperation project drier in summer, more precipita-
a decrease in autumn precipita- “Climate change and consequenc- tion in winter.
tion in the southern and eastern es for water management”
areas. In the Swiss Alps, there was (KLIWA) for Bavaria and Baden-

Changes in seasonal precipitation in the Alps, 2071-2100, in various emissions
scenarios (A2, B2)
Changes in seasonal precipitation in the Alps

(HIRHAM Regional Circulation Model)
500
Annual: 1605 mm
450 Annual: 1591 mm
Seasonal precipitation [mm]
Annual: 1597 mm
400
350
300
250
Winter Spring Summer Autumn
1961–1990 2071–2100 (B2) 2071–2100 (A2)
Source: Beniston, M. (2006)
Furthermore, studies show not signs of increased and earlier run- structure and water quality. Simu-
only an increase in winter precipi- off in spring from rivers that de- lations point to a higher peak run-
tation while annual precipitation rive their water from glaciers and off, due among other things to
shows virtually no change, but snow cover as well as a warm- earlier snowmelt onset, and very
also point to an increase in the ing of lakes and rivers in many low levels of runoff in the summer
intensity of precipitation events regions, with effects on thermal months.
with a return period of one year
for Europe. Trends for Switzerland
during the 20th century reveal Changes in runoff in the Alps
a significant increase – in both
strength and occurrence – of win-
Changes in runoff in the Alps
ter precipitation. In autumn too, a
significant increase in heavy pre-
(HIRHAM RCM = A2 Scenario)
cipitation can be observed.
Enhanced Enhanced
The changed precipitation pat- flood risk drought risk
terns are not without implica- 6
tions for water resources man- Winter Spring Summer Autumn
5
Mean 30-year runoff [mm/day]
agement. The IPCC, for example, +90% -5% -45% -20%

has already identified growing 4
3
2071–2100
2
1961–1990
1
0
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361
Calendar day
Source: Beniston, M. (2006)

Snow causes chaos in the Ausseerland region
of Styria (Austria)
Snow dian temperature. However, the days with snow cover (snow cov-
decrease in snowfall at lower alti- er duration) by approx. 30-40% in
Snowfall in the Alps is heavily de- tudes is greater than would be an- lower lying areas (< approx. 300 m
pendent on climate fluctuations ticipated from global temperature above sea level). In the higher re-
in the North Atlantic (North At- rise alone. gions, values of under 10% are ob-
lantic Oscillation) and thus shows served on average, and even an
strong decadal variability. This The KLIWA project also looked increase in the winter cover. Thus
means that not only local but also at long-term behaviour of snow a reduction in the negative trend
macroscale factors play the dom- cover in Bavaria and Baden-Würt- can be observed with increased
inant role in determining the temberg. For the second half of height of the terrain, and occa-
quantity and distribution of snow- the 20th century, a decrease was sionally even a trend reversal on
fall. In the Swiss Alps, the dura- observed in the mean number of mountain ridges and peaks.
tion and amount of snow cover
have decreased significantly since
the mid 1980s. Trends for alti-
tudes below 650 m show a notice-
able decrease in snow cover, indi-
cating that winter precipitation
is increasingly occurring as rain
rather than snow. The sensitiv-
ity to these climate fluctuations,
mentioned above, disappears at
altitudes above 1,750 m, howev-
er. Swiss monitoring stations at
altitudes below 1,300 m also ob-
served a decrease in the number
of days with snowfall in the late
20th century, which is mainly due
to an increase in seasonal me-
Oberstdorf in Allgäu, Bavaria, in January 2007:

ski championships cancelled due to lack of snow

Proof of the statistical significance These studies of trends over the A snow cannon in use at a ski resort in
for the found trend values is pos- last one hundred years reveal the South Tyrol
sible only in isolated cases. Nev- changes which have occurred;
ertheless, climatological changes however, these changes are minor
can certainly be concluded from compared with the predicted sce-
the area-wide concurrent trend narios for the next decades:
behaviour of the quantities stud-
ied. The trend is doubtless to-
wards milder winters with less
snow and with a shorter duration
of snow cover.
˘ As a result of temperature increases, the snowline will rise by about 150 m for
every 1°C of warming; the seasonal distribution of snow may well change as
well. (IPCC, 1997)
˘ For every 1°C of warming, the duration of snow cover will decrease by several
weeks. (IPCC, 2007b)
˘ A warming scenario of 4° C as projected for the period 1971–2100 compared with

current climatic conditions suggests that snow volume in the Alps may respond
by reductions of at least 90% at altitudes close to 1,000 m, by 50% at 2,000
m, and 35% at 3,000 m. In addition, the duration of snow cover is sharply re-
duced in the warmer climate, with a termination of the season 50–60 days ear-
lier at high elevations above 2,000–2,500 m and a full 100 or more days earlier
at sites close to the 1,000 m altitude. The shortening of the snow season con-
cerns more the end (spring) rather than the beginning (autumn). The results of
this study are of relevance to the estimations of the impacts that the projected
warming may have on the start of the vegetation season and on meltwater lev-
els, whose peak will shift to the winter. (Beniston et al., 2003)

Extreme events
The predictions for precipitation days are now rarer. The 2003 heat century, as simulated in climate
and wind speeds react very sen- wave across Europe, which had models, this type of summer will
sitively to the choice of model dramatic impacts on nature and be a fairly frequent occurrence. It
and to minor changes in criteria, society, is statistically very unlike- is predicted that in future, coun-
whereas heat wave trends for the ly to occur in a climate such as tries in central Europe will experi-
future are regarded as robust. Ex- that of the 20th century. Howev- ence the same number of hot days
tremely warm seasons – especial- er, it does tally with a combined as are currently experienced in
ly very hot summers – are occur- increase in average temperature southern Europe.
ring with increasing frequency in and temperature variability. But
Germany, while extremely cold in a warmer climate in the 21st
Dried-out bed of the Sylvenstein Reservoir

in the upper Isar valley, Bavaria, during the
prolonged drought in April 2007

As far as precipitation is con- the levels of heavy precipitation days with little or no precipitation.
cerned, strong seasonal differ- was noted during the winter half- It should be noted, however, that
ences occur, as a study commis- year in the 20th century in the trends and forecasts for natural
sioned by the Federal Environ- period 1931–2000, but there was extremes are more uncertain than
ment Agency shows. In winter, a also an increase in the number of estimates of median values.
trend towards greater variability
and quantity of precipitation can
be observed, which could lead to
a noticeable increase in extreme- ˘ There is a high probability of more frequent heat waves, such as that which
ly heavy precipitation on a wide- occurred in summer 2003. By the end of the 21st century, large areas of
spread basis. The German Mete- central Europe will experience the same number of hot days as are currently
orological Service has recorded experienced in southern Europe. (Beniston, 2003)
an increase in heavy precipitation
(more than 30 l/sq. m) during the ˘ A warmer atmosphere leads to an increased frequency of heavy precipitation
summer months since 1901, at the events (> 30 mm/day): by more than 20% with warming of 2° C, leading to
expense of ordinary summer rain- substantial reductions in the return period of strong events. (Frei et al., 1998)
fall. For Bavaria and Baden-Würt-
temberg, too, a clear increase in ˘ The probability of extremely high seasonal precipitation will increase by a
factor of 2-5 over the next 50 to 100 years, with flooding likely to occur more
frequently in most regions of Europe. Here, variations in climatic extremes
are more likely than changes in median values to have greater impacts on
society. (Eisenreich et al., 2005)
Storm over Spitzingsee, Bavaria

References
Beniston, M. (2006) Mountain mate, Geophysical Research Letters, OcCC (2007) Klimaänderung
weather and climate: A general 25 (9), S. 1431–1434. und die Schweiz 2050: Erwartete
overview and a focus on climatic Auswirkungen auf Umwelt, Gesell-
change in the Alps, Hydrobiologia, Frei, C. und Schär, C. (1998) A Pre- schaft und Wirtschaft, Organe con-
526, S. 3–16. cipitation Climatlogy of the Alps sultatif sur les changements clima-
from High-Resolution Rain-Gauge tiques, Bern.
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mate: an exploration of regional H.-J. (2006) Der Klimawandel, Ver-
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in the Swiss Alps under changing Global Change and Mountain Re-
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S. 1779–1801. aler Klimaszenarios auf der Basis
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terdienstes am 24.4.2007 in Berlin.

Possible Climatic Changes in the Alpine Region
by Dr.
Daniela Jacob, Holger Göttel,
Sven Kotlarski and Philip Lorenz
Introduction
The debate is over: the Earth‘s cli- To this end, regional climate mod-
mate has changed over recent dec- els with a range of detailed infor-
ades, as a wealth of data collected mation from the region and its
by meteorological and hydrologi- environment are embedded in the
cal services worldwide show. The global models, thus allowing the
Alpine region is also affected, and regional climate to be studied in
it seems that the impacts of future detail.
changes could be particularly seri-
ous here.
Figure 1: Annual precipitation over the Alpine region from observations for the
In order to analyse possible fu- period 1971-1990 (top: Frei et al. 2003) and a REMO simulation with a horizon-
ture climatic changes, global cli- tal resolution of approx.10 km (bottom)
mate models have been developed
which, together with various as-
sumptions about greenhouse gas
emissions in the atmosphere, en-
able climate scenarios to be calcu-
lated for the next 100 years. These
computer models can be regard-
ed as mathematical images of the
Earth system, as they describe its
physical processes in numerical
terms and calculate them as real-
istically as possible. To determine
the quality of the climate models, REMO 0.088˚ (1979–1990)
they are initially used to model
periods in the past. A time peri-
od for which extensive monitor-
ing data are available worldwide
should preferably be selected here.
If predictions are also to be made

about possible regional or local
climatic changes and their im-
pacts, a bridge must be built be-
tween global climate change cal-
culations and the regional effects.
[mm]

A mountain stream
in spate in the French Alps
Regional
Climatic Changes
On behalf of the Federal Environ- – in 2100. The amount of annu- the amount of precipitation in the
ment Agency, the Max Planck In- al precipitation appears unlikely summer months (up to approx.
stitute for Meteorology (MPI-M) to change significantly, however, 30%). For winter months, an in-
developed scenarios for possible but there may be a decrease in crease of 5–10% is forecast (Fig. 2).
climatic changes in Germany, Aus-
tria and Switzerland to the year Figure 2: Possible changes in precipitation amounts in the Alpine region for
2100, which broadly conform with the summer months (top) and the winter months (bottom), calculated in the
the IPCC‘s SRES scenarios, i.e. low- A1B scenario for the period 2071-2100 compared with 1961-1990
emissions (B1), mid-range (A1B)
and high emissions (A2) scenar-
A1B: 2071/2100 minus 1961/1990
ios. The MPI-M received support
summer: relative change in precipitation
from the German Climate Com-
puting Centre in Hamburg here.
The Regional Model REMO [2,3],
which was used for this purpose,
presents a very realistic picture of
climate trends over the past one
hundred years (Fig. 1), as is appar-
ent from the comparison of obser-
vations, also in highly structured
terrain such as the Alps [1]. This
verification process is necessary
in order to evaluate the quality
of the modelling results. The cli-
mate simulations undertaken us-
ing REMO were carried out with A1B: 2071/2100 minus 1961/1990
a spatial resolution of 10 km. As a winter: relative change in precipitation [%]
result, these simulations provide
information which was previously
unavailable in this level of detail.
The results in detail: more green-

house gases could lead to moder-
ate warming in the Alpine region,
amounting to between 3° C and
4.5° C – depending on the level of
future greenhouse gas emissions

Figure 3: Change in snowfall amount per year for various altitudes (0–500 m, 1,000–1,500 m, > 2,000 m) and the
climate scenarios A1B (red) and B1 (blue)
Alps: Climate change per year

100%
80%
C20 0-500 C20 1000-1500 C20 >2000
60% A1B 0-500 A1B 1000-1500 A1B >2000
B1 0-500 B1 1000-1500 B1 >2000
40%
Change in snowfall
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Due to rising winter tempera- An analysis of temperatures show gions such as Garmisch-Parten-
tures in the Alps at the same time that in the winter months, a kirchen and Mittenwald, for
– possibly amounting to more mean rise of 155 m in the altitude which decreases well in excess of
than 4° C by the end of the cen- of the zero degree line could oc- 50% could occur (Fig. 4).
tury (A2, A1B) — precipitation will cur for every 1°C of warming; in
fall more frequently as rain rather other words, by the end of this For higher-altitude regions, how-
than snow. Over the next decades, century, the altitude of the zero ever, a reduction of only around
far less snow could fall at lower al- degree line could shift upwards one-third is calculated. By the
titudes and from the mid 21st cen- by around 650 m if air temper- end of the 21st century, therefore,
tury onwards, a decrease in snow- atures at 2 m above ground in- snow-covered areas in the Alpine
fall is predicted even for altitudes crease by around 4.2°C compared region could shrink very consider-
above 2,000 m (Fig. 3). with the period from 1961 to ably if warming increases substan-
1990. tially (e.g. > 4°C). But even with a
temperature increase of 3°C, as
As a result of these changes, the simulated to the mid 21st centu-
number of days with more than ry, very large snow-covered areas
3 cm of snow per year could be that are currently considered to
reduced; this would occur to a be snow-reliable could disappear
greater extent in lower lying re- (Fig. 5).

Garmisch-Partenkirchen in Upper Bavaria
Figure 4: Possible change in the number of days with snow (> 3 cm) per year in the A1B scenario for the regions Mitten-
wald and Garmisch-Partenkirchen
Days with snow

180
160 Mittenwald 3 cm
Garmisch-Partenkirchen 3 cm
Days with more than 3 cm of snow per year
140 Mittenwald runmean

Garmisch-Partenkirchen runmean
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year

Figure 5: Mean snow heights > 2 mm water equivalent
(white) as a 30-year mean based on the A1B scenario
CTRL 1960–1989 (white: mean snow height > 2 mm w.e)
These rapid and far-reaching cli-

matic changes could have grave
impacts on human communities
and the environment. The poten-
tial damage caused by extreme
weather events such as heat
waves, heavy precipitation and
A1B 2020–2049 (white: mean snow height > 2 mm w.e) storms is often far greater than
that caused by gradual climatic
change. For that reason, the Max
Planck Institute for Meteorology
is currently carrying out detailed
analyses of the climate scenari-
os in order to make predictions
about the frequency and force of
future extreme events.
A1B 2070–2099 (white: mean snow height > 2 mm w.e)

Hochkalter (2,607 m) in the Berchtesgaden
Alps, Bavaria
Conclusion References
All the above findings result from [1] Frei, C., Christensen, J.H., [4] Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J.,
one simulation per emissions sce- Deque, M., Jacob, D., Jones, R.G., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann,
nario. In order to take account of und Vidale, P.L.: 2003, ‘Daily pre- J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler,
natural variability, many of these cipitation statistics in regional A., Jung, T.Y., Kram, T., La Rovere,
possible manifestations of an emis- climate models: Evaluation and E.L., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita,
sions scenario would have to be intercomparison for the Europe- T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Price,
calculated. This is being planned an Alps’, J. Geophys. Res. 108 (D3), L., Raihi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H-
and will be carried out in order to 4124, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002287. H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M.,
analyse the robustness of climate Shukla, P., Smith, S., Swart, R., van
change models. [2] Jacob, D.: 2001, ‘A note to the Rooijen, S., Victor, N. and Dadi,
simulation of the annual and in- Z.: 2000, ‘IPCC Special Report on
Furthermore, linkage must now ter-annual variability of the water Emissions Scenarios’, Cambridge
also be established with the envi- budget over the Baltic Sea drain- University Press, Cambridge, Unit-
ronmental and socioeconomic as- age basin’, Meteorol Atmos Phys 77, ed Kingdom and New York, NY,
pects of the Earth system. Region- 61–73. USA.
al climate models must be expand-
ed into regional system models [3] Jacob, D., Bärring, L., Chris-
which take account of the numer- tensen, O.B., Christensen, J.H.,
ous biogeochemical interactions Hagemann, S., Hirschi, M., Kjell-
as well as the influence of human ström, E., Lenderink, G., Rockel, Contact:
activity. B., Schär, C., Seneviratne, S.I., So-
mot, S., van Ulden, A. and van Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
den Hurk, B.: 2007, ‘An inter-com- Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg,
parison of regional climate mod- Germany
els for Europe: Design of the ex- Tel.: +49 (0)40 411 73-0
periments and model perform- Fax: +49 (0)40 411 73-298
ance’, PRUDENCE Special Issue, Website: www.mpimet.mpg.de
Climatic Change, Vol. 81, Supple-
ment 1, May 2007.

KomPass
The KomPass Competence Centre on Climate Change Im-
pacts and Adaptation at the Federal Environment Agency
In the National Climate Protec- able its own climate scenarios,
tion Programme 2005, the Ger- based on various models, and
man Government pledged to start draw together existing knowledge
work on a strategy for adaptation on adaptation to climate change.
to climate change in Germany. To
facilitate the development of this KomPass will supply specialist
strategy – including the provision conceptual bases for the identifi-
of expert and environmental poli- cation and implementation of a
cy support for its implementation German adaptation strategy. In
– the Federal Environment Minis- this context, a key role is played
try commissioned the Federal En- by issues such as the following:
vironment Agency (UBA) to estab- how can vulnerable sectors of our
lish a Competence Centre on Cli- society be identified, along with
mate Change Impacts and Adapta- possible adaptation measures?
tion (KomPass). What will adaptation cost, where
do its limits lie, and which politi-
Remit: cal parameters are required for
the implementation of adaptation
KomPass aims to link fields of ex-
strategies?
pertise on climate impacts and
adaptation and to educate de-
cision-makers and the public at Services:
large. In this way, the Federal En-
The KomPass Competence Centre
vironment Agency (UBA) is seek-
on Climate Change Impacts and
ing to facilitate the work being
Adaptation at the Federal Envi-
undertaken by all the bodies and
ronment Agency will provide the
organisations – in the corporate
following services on a progres-
sector, administration, and busi-
sive basis to 2011:
ness and environmental associa-
tions – which must address the ˘ KomPass – with broad partici-
issue of adaptation to climate pation by other political ac-
change. KomPass will make avail- tors at federal and Land level

– will provide scientific support projects from cooperating net-
for the Federal Ministry for the works, studies, background pa-
Environment, Nature Conserva- pers, newsletters and specialist
tion and Nuclear Safety (BMU) information, as well as a map-
in the development of the ping service on regional climate
National Adaptation Strategy. change and impacts in future.
˘ KomPass will supply data on ˘ KomPass will promote net-
regional climate change and working with actors from the
thus intensify regional climate research community, business,
impact research relating to Ger- administration and non-gov-
many. ernmental organisations in or-
der to drive the exchange of
˘ KomPass will evaluate informa-
experience on adaptation and
tion on regional climate change
to address actors‘ expectations
and climate impacts and sum-
as regards strategy formulation
marise the findings of climate
and KomPass itself. KomPass
research projects for decision-
will run workshops and semi-
makers in a clear and under-
nars for this purpose.
standable way. The summarised
findings will be published by ˘ KomPass will contribute to the
KomPass via a searchable infor- development of a European
mation catalogue with reports, and an international frame-
brochures, themed papers and work on adaptation.
background documents.
˘ KomPass will offer an Internet

Contact:
platform which in future will Federal Environment Agency
be supplemented by a specialist Section I 4.1 „Climate Protection“
information system. The Competence Centre on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation (KomPass)
Platform will offer not only Postfach 1406, 06813 Dessau, Germany
Kompass products such as the Email: kompass@uba.de
information catalogue but also Website: www.anpassung.net and www.uba.de/klimaschutz

THE IMPACTS

So what are the impacts of the climatic changes described above?
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), mountain regions will experience glacier retreat, reduced
snow cover and extensive species extinction. These aspects are dis-
cussed in detail below.
Ecosystems
Mountain ecosystems are among few avoidance opportunities
the most species-rich sites on the in the face of ongoing climate
planet and are particularly sensi- change. Alpine ecosystems are in-
tive to climatic changes. On the fluenced by a number of factors
one hand, life in the Alps is well- which are insignificant elsewhere,
adapted to the cold, but temper- such as slope angle, the role of
atures are noticeably warming. root systems in slope stabilisation,
The Alps are characterised by a a high degree of topographic
large number of endemic species heterogeneity and the protective
Alpine marmot of flora and fauna, which have function of forests in relation to
natural hazards such as avalanch-
es and rock falls. Furthermore,
the abundance of unique micro-
climatic locations and azonal bi-
otopes increases the vulnerability
of this unique natural landscape
area. On the other hand, vulner-
ability to global change is heavily
dependent on the starting condi-
tions. For example, large areas of
the Alpine ecosystem, especial-
ly settlement areas and the high
mountain meadow zones (alms),
are already under pressure from
human influence and have under-
gone profound changes during re-
cent centuries. Projections based
on a better understanding of the
global climate systems and their

View from the Heuberg over the Inn valley, Bavaria
associated regional aspects show ing terrestrial ecosystems. Gen- ered likely that plants‘ primary
that future changes will exceed eral trends show a longer vegeta- response will be migration rath-
past risks. Moreover, in all prob- tion period, earlier budding, and er than adaptation. On average,
ability, the more frequent occur- an upward shift of some species most Alpine and nival species
rence of extremes will be at least of flora and fauna. In Europe, for could tolerate the direct and indi-
as decisive, if not even more sig- example, the average annual veg- rect impacts of a temperature in-
nificant, than gradual climatic etation period has extended by crease of 1-2°C, but are unlikely to
change per se. 10.8 days since 1960. Warming tolerate a much greater change,
could thus be an advantage for which could result in many Al-
Although the Alps are certainly late-blooming species. Changes pine species losing large areas
the best-studied mountain region in the duration of snow cover and of their habitat. The fact is that
in the world, long-term studies of the vegetation phase will prob- every upward areal shift means a
vegetation and species distribu- ably also have stronger effects on net loss of area because the sur-
tion are still hard to find. In par- plant growth than will the im- face area available at higher alti-
ticular, there are no comparative pacts of temperature changes tudes is smaller. Assuming a tem-
studies covering the Alpine region alone. perature increase of 3.3°C, which
as a whole. Nonetheless, it is al- amounts to an altitude change of
most certain that European moun- In essence, there are three ways 600 m, Switzerland is predicted
tain flora will be exposed to far- in which mountain flora can re- to lose 63% of its Alpine vegeta-
reaching changes as a result of cli- spond to climate change: through tion zone.
mate change. The IPCC‘s scientists persistence in the changed cli-
are very sure that the current lev- mate, migration to suitable cli-
el of warming is strongly influenc- mates, or extinction. It is consid-

In addition, more habitat frag- saplings above the existing tree increasing scale. Moors in particu-
mentation could occur as spe- line in the sub-Alpine zone. As a lar are at risk from higher temper-
cies of flora and fauna seek colder result, comparisons with histori- atures and longer dry periods, as
climes by migrating upwards to cal records show that the species- species which are atypical of high
isolated mountain peaks. What‘s richness of plants on 30 peaks in moors could penetrate into these
more, the microclimatic and geo- the Alps has increased by a max- habitats. Many of these trends
morphological conditions prevail- imum of 70%, probably as a re- point to an accelerated change in
ing at these higher altitudes do sult of their spread at higher alti- recent decades.
not replicate those found at the tudes. However, this is achieved at
original lower lying sites. a cost, namely the displacement It is often argued that plants will
of the species previously existing benefit from the stimulating ef-
Furthermore, the displacement of here. Furthermore, there are also fect of increased CO2 concentra-
nival species, i.e. species growing signs that strong selection such tions. However, this argument
in or under snow, could occur as as that caused by climate change can be refuted for Alpine plants,
these species cannot migrate up- can lead to rapid genetic differen- which are unlikely to benefit from
wards. Recent studies carried out tiation within the plant popula- a CO2-enriched atmosphere. On
as part of the Global Observation tions. In parallel, endemic species the contrary, the warming which
Research Initiative in Alpine Envi- in mountain regions could also will occur during the coming dec-
ronments (GLORIA) project show be at risk from the immigration ades could lead to a weakening of
– in conformity with expectations of alien species, which may well dominant species regionally or lo-
and models – a withdrawal of ni- speed up with climate change. cally, caused by outbreaks of dis-
val and subnival species to their The extinction of species at geo- ease. Not only flora but also fauna
lower distribution limit and, at graphical barriers, such as high will have to adapt to the climat-
the same time, an upward shift altitudes, will become increasing- ic changes. For example, insects
of Alpine species. There is also ly visible with the progressive es- seem to be even more sensitive to
an increased growth of trees and tablishment of new species on an climatic changes than plants since
Gentian

Ibex
˘ Empirical studies and model simulations indicate that mountain vegetation

responds particularly sensitively to anthropogenic climate change. (Bugmann
et al., 2005)
their distribution is generally tem- ˘ Climate change could hardly happen at a worse time, as ecosystems have al-
perature-limited, which is why ready been heavily modified and destroyed as a result of human activity such
they are also faster to react. as land use, fertiliser application, etc. (Theurillat and Guisan, 2001)
Recent studies – albeit based on ˘ There is virtually no doubt that even moderate warming triggers a migration
rough spatial analyses – point to process and that this has already begun. (Grabherr et al., 1994)
a potential species loss of up to
60%. The same applies to fauna, ˘ Rising temperatures could trigger an upward shift of adaptable and rapidly
making mountain regions the growing pioneer species and, on the other hand, put slow-reacting plants at a
most at-risk regions in Europe. disadvantage or isolate populations on mountain tops. (Körner, 2005)
˘ In many cases, the indirect impacts will have a far greater effect than tem-
perature rise per se. Above all, the effects of changes in the amount and du-
ration of snowfall will have an impact on Alpine vegetation. (Körner, 2005)
˘ Species of alpine flora in mountains with restricted habitats above the tree
line will suffer biotope loss and severe fragmentation in the event of a tem-
perature increase of 2°C or more. The fact is that a shift to cooler areas is
almost impossible for species which inhabit the cold and isolated zones close
to mountain peaks. (Dirnböck et al., 2003)
Alpine species therefore appear and pastures has occurred, there-

to react with above-average sen- by causing changes in the moun-
sitivity to climatic changes. Cli- tain landscape and forestry which
mate change is overlaid by land have even more drastic impacts
use, however. In recent centuries, on Alpine biodiversity, potentially
for example, many mountain hay reinforcing or weakening the ef-
meadows have been abandoned, fects of climate change.
or intensive farming of meadows

Forests the distribution of precipitation. potential tree line is unlikely to
and woodland Model studies show that a tem- be achieved everywhere. The Al-
perature increase of 1-1.4°C would pine region is densely populated
Thanks to the forestry sector, in- alter the classification type of the and the majority of forests and
formation has been collated on Swiss forest by 30-55%, and by as woodland is managed, which is
how climatic changes could im- much as 55-89% with warming why the current tree line is al-
pact on species distribution and of 2-2.8°C. According to statisti- ready lower than the natural tree
diversity as well as on the timber cal models, beech-dominated for- line in some places. Land use is
industry. Climate change will af- est in hilly to sub-montane zones a very important factor which
fect forests and woodland too, on may well be replaced by oak and could either reinforce or, if man-
the one hand through direct im- hornbeam. It is therefore assumed aged appropriately, delay the im-
pacts such as changes in temper- that forest biodiversity is more pacts of climate change. Nonethe-
ature and precipitation, and on likely to increase than decrease in less, it is doubtful whether, given
the other, through indirect effects a warmer climate. future emissions scenarios, there
such as the increased risk of for- is any prospect of maintaining
est fires. Experts disagree, however, about the current species composition
the extent to which the tree line by means of judicious planting, as
It is not only the warmer temper- will shift upwards with a gen- other effects will prevail.
atures which may pose a prob- eral increase in temperature. A
lem for some species; biodiversi- shift of several hundred metres From a long-term perspective,
ty is also crucially determined by seems likely. However, this new however, the more frequent oc-
currence of hot and dry years
could impair the composition and
diversity of forests and woodland.
As a result, fire could probably be-
come as crucial a factor in shap-
ing the landscape as the direct
effects of climate change. In addi-
tion, an increase in the frequency
of storms could reduce the pro-
ductiveness of forests, with coni-
fers appearing to be more suscep-
tible than mixed forest here.

Impacts of climate change on landscape structure in Dischmatal (Graubünden, Switzerland)
in an ecosystem model
Landscape composition in today‘s (left) and the future (right) climate
N N Picea abies
P.abies/L.dec.
Larix decidua
L.dec./P. cembra
Pinus cembra
P.mungo/deciduous
1km 1km
300 300
250 250
Picea abies
200 200
Larix decidua
Pinus cembra
Biomass
150 150
Alnus viridis
100 100
Pinus mungo
50 50
0 0
1550
1750
1950
1550
1750
1950
2150
2350
2550
2150
2350
2550
Altitude (in m above NN)
Source: Körner, C. et al. (2005)

Furthermore, some studies show
that extreme conditions could, ˘ The direct and indirect effects of climate change will have far-reaching
over the long term, transform consequences for mountain forests in the European Alps, including their pro-
ecosystems from being a net C tective function against natural hazards. (Schumacher and Bugmann, 2006)
sink to being a net C source. The
forests would therefore no long- ˘ A rise in temperature of 1-2°C is unlikely to shift the current tree line by more
er absorb CO2 from the atmos- than 100-200 m. (Theurillat and Guisan, 2001)
phere, but would instead release
it through the process of decay ˘ Even a slight rise in the probability of storms occurring could have substantial
and extinction. impacts of economic relevance, comparable with the Lothar storm. (Fuhrer et
al., 2006)
Agriculture
Possible impacts on agriculture amounting to SFr 500 million. ed increase in the frequency and
are very difficult to predict. How- Harvest losses of this kind may oc- intensity of rainfall could height-
ever, agriculture is likely to be cur more frequently, for projec- en the risk of erosion of nutrient-
adversely affected, first and fore- tions show that the probability of rich surface soils in some areas,
most, by increasing weather ex- droughts occurring in the Alps unless countermeasures are taken.
tremes. The 2003 heat wave tem- will increase from the current 10-
porarily reduced the net income 15% to around 50% by the end of
of farmers in Switzerland by 11%, the century. However, the predict-

References
Bugmann, H. et al. (2005) Project- IPCC (Hrsg.) (2007) Climate Change Pauli, H. et al. (1996) Effects of cli-
ing the Impacts of Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, mate change on mountain ecosys-
on Mountain Forests and Land- Adaption and Vulnerability. tems – upward shifting of alpine
scapes, in Huber U. et al. (Hrsg.) plants, World Resource Review, 8 (3),
Global Change and Mountain IPCC (Hrsg.) (1997) The Regional S. 382–390.
Regions, Springer, Dordrecht. Impacts of Climate Change: An
Assessment of Vulnerability, Cam- Schappi, B. und Körner, C. (1996)
Dirnböck, T. et al. (2003) A region- bridge University Press. Growth responses of alpine grass-
al impact assessment of climate and land to elevated CO2, Oecologia, 105
land-use change on alpine vegeta- Körner, C. (2005) The Green Cover (1), S. 43–52.
tion, Journal of Biogeography, 30, of Mountains in a Changing Envi-
S. 401–417. ronment, in Huber U. et al. (Hrsg.) Schumacher, S. und Bugmann, H.
Global Change and Mountain (2006) The relative importance of
Fuhrer, J. et al. (2006) Climate risks Regions, Springer, Dordrecht, climatic effects, wildfires and man-
and their impact on agriculture S. 367–375. agement for future forest landscape
and forests in Switzerland, Climatic dynamics in the Swiss Alps, Global
Change 79, S. 79–102. OcCC (2007) Klimaänderung Change Biology, 12, S. 1435–1450.
und die Schweiz 2050: Erwartete
Grabherr, G. et al. (1994) Climate Auswirkungen auf Umwelt, Gesells- Theurillat, J.P. und Guisan, A.
effects on mountain plants, Nature, chaft und Wirtschaft, Organe con- (2001) Potential impact of climate
369, S. 448. sultatif sur les Changements Clima- change on vegetation in the Euro-
tiques, Bern. pean Alps: A review, Climatic
Hughes, L. (2000) Biological conse- Change, 50, S. 77–109.
quences of global warming: is the Pauli, H. et al. (2007) Signals of
signal already here?, Tree, 15 (2), range expansions and contractions
S. 56–61. of vascular plants in the high Alps:
observations (1994-2004) at the
GLORIA master site Schrankogel,
Tyrol, Austria, Global Change Biology,
13, S. 147–156.

Alpine Ecosystems and Climate Change:
Facts and Forecasts
by GeorgGrabherr1,
Michael Gottfried1 and Harald Pauli2
The scientific community is cur- to Alpine endemic species, i.e. spe- High-resolution computer models
rently being called upon to make cies with a narrow geographical for the Schrankogel also confirm,
clear and unequivocal statements range, and mountain regions with however, that due to the rough
about the impacts of climate a narrow Alpine zone. Candidates relief of the mountain, a few rel-
change. This applies to the trop- for this type of species disaster ic populations of the cold-loving
ics and the Arctic and, equally, to worldwide include, for example, flora may be able to survive even
the world‘s mountain regions and the Australian Alps, the Hokkaido in extreme scenarios (e.g. + 5°C in
therefore also to the Alps. High Mountains and in Europe, the 100 years). It can be assumed that
mountains are “hot spots” of bio- Sierra Nevada in Spain, Lefka Ori generalised models based on a
diversity. Some 5,000 flowering or White Mountains in Crete, and zonal altitude increase depict the
plants per 100 x 100 km can be some parts of the Alps (e.g. the situation in overly extreme terms.
found in the Eastern Himalayas northern-most parts of the Lime- Nonetheless, direct observation of
or the equatorial Andes, for ex- stone Alps). the biota is the basic prerequisite
ample, and the Alps – with their for reliable statements to be made.
1,500-3,000 species – are not far So will such catastrophes really Due to their diversity, Alpine flora
behind. Alpine flora in the nar- happen? In fact, comparisons with – rather than Alpine fauna – are
rower sense – i.e. species which records of the flora found in the an excellent indicator of the
mainly grow on and/or above past (e.g. dating back 150 years) ecological relevance of climate
the tree line – make a key con- on a number of 3,000 m peaks in change. In a cultivated landscape
tribution here. Taken together, Switzerland and Austria appear to – but also in woodland which,
the Alpine species present in Eu- confirm that Alpine flora are cur- with very few exceptions, is affect-
rope‘s high mountains account rently in a state of flux. A clear ed by forestry and in some cases
for some 20-25% of Europe‘s to- indicator is the higher number of changed – similar studies provide
tal plant diversity – a remark- species on most peaks today. This little information, as other factors
ably high figure if we consider trend appears to have accelerat- such as fertiliser application, tim-
that the Alpine zone encompasses ed recently, correlating with the ber felling etc. exert far greater
just 3% of Europe‘s territory. Ac- extremely warm years over the influence than climatic changes,
cording to the “logic” of climate past decade. Precise comparisons other than in extreme events. But
change research, it is widely as- undertaken on the Schrankogel even in a heavily used mountain
sumed – and this assumption ap- (3,497 m) in Tyrol between 1994 region such as the Alps, there are
pears to be borne out by macros- and 2004 on more than 300 1x1 areas which have never, or only
cale computer models – that such m plots clearly show increased rarely, been directly influenced by
cold-adapted flora will suffer ma- population density at altitudes be- human activity.
jor losses under the postulated cli- tween 2,800 and 3,200 m of spe-
mate change scenarios; these loss- cies which need more warmth, The Alpine biota has reacted to
es could range from a decrease whereas high-altitude species the climate change that has oc-
in population density to the dis- which need cold decreased in area curred over recent decades, and
appearance of entire populations cover. However, this was not due its diversity is at risk, at least over
and, ultimately, species extinc- to invasion of species from lower the long term and on a regional
tion. The latter applies especially altitudes. basis. On the other hand, it offers

Gentian
a unique field for direct monitor- Grabherr, G., Gottfried, M. und Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Araujo,
ing of the ecological impacts of Pauli, H. (1994) Climate effects M., Sykes, M.T. und Prentice, C.
climate change. The Global Ob- on mountain plants. Nature 369: (2005) Climate change threats to
servation Research Initiative in 448–448. plant diversity in Europe. PNAS,
Alpine Environments (GLORIA) 102: 8245–8250.
makes use of this opportunity. Grabherr, G., Gottfried, G. und
Based on standardised method- Pauli, H. (2006) Ökologische Ef- Väre, H., Lampinen, R.,
ologies, more than 40 working fekte an den Grenzen des Lebens. Humphries, C. und Williams, P.
groups from the Andes to the po- Spektrum der Wissenschaft. (2003) Taxonomic diversity of vas-
lar Urals have established perma- Dossier: Klima: 84–89. cular plants in the European
nent monitoring stations in select- alpine araeas. In: Nagy L., Grab-
ed mountain regions as a starting Grabherr, G., Gottfried, M. und herr G., Körner Ch. & Thompson
point for a comprehensive ecolog- Pauli, H. (2007) Der globale Wan- D.B.A. (eds.) Alpine Biodiversity in
ical monitoring network. del im internationalen Monitor- Europe. Ecological Studies 167:
ing. In: Borsdorf A. & Grabherr G. 133–147.
(eds. Internationale Gebirgsforsc-
References hung. IGF-Forschungsberichte, Walther, G-R., Beißner, S. und
Barthlott, W., Lauer W. und Österreichische Akademie der Burga, C.A. (2005) Trends in
Placke, A. (1996) Global distribu- Wissenschaften, 1: 21–36. upward shift of alpine plants. J.
tion of species diversity in vascu- Vegetation Science 16: 541–548.
lar plants: towards a world map of Pauli, H., Gottfried, M., Hoh-
phytodiversity. Erdkunse 50: enwallner, D., Reiter, K., Ca-
317–327. sale, R. und Grabherr, G. (2004).
Contact:
The GLORIA Field Manual – Mul-
1
Vegetation and Landscape Ecology,
Gottfried, M., Pauli, H., Reit- ti Summit Approach. European University of Vienna
er, K. und Grabherr, G. (1999) A Commission, Directorate-General
2
Mountain Research: Man and Environ-
fine-scaled predictive model for for Research, EUR 21213. ment Research Unit,
changes in species distribution Austrian Academy of Sciences
patterns of high mountain plants Pauli, H., Gottfried, M., Reiter, Althanstr. 14
induced by climate warming. Di- K., Klettner, C. und Grabherr, A-1090 Wien, Austria
versity and Distribution, 5: 241–251. G. (2007) Signals of range expan- Email: georg.grabherr@univie.ac.at
sions and contractions of vascular Website: http://univie.ac.at/cvl
plants in the high Alps: observa-
tions (1994-2004) at the GLORIA
master site Schrankogel, Tyrol,
Austria. Global Change Biology 13:
147–156.

Climate Change Projects
in Berchtesgaden National Park
Berchtesgaden after which the climate monitor-
National Park ing stations at lower and mid-alti-
tude sites were reduced to around
Berchtesgaden National Park is 20 stations. However, climate
located in the south-eastern tip of monitoring stations will now be
Bavaria. It is Germany‘s only established at higher altitudes
Alpine national park. Ranging in above the tree line.
altitude from 600 to 2,700 m, the
National Park encompasses spruce Water springs
monocultures in the development
areas of the buffer zone as well as Water springs are special habi-
the grassland of the high Alpine tats with quite specific character-
zone, which is untouched or hard- istics. In many water springs, the
ly touched by human activity. Ex- water temperatures vary by only
perts agree that climate change a few degrees Celsius over the
will have a dramatic impact on year, with virtually no daily vari-
these sites. Therefore in the Na- ation. The same applies to many
tional Park‘s management plan of other environmental parameters
2001, the National Park Adminis- as well. Highly specialised species
tration was tasked to monitor glo- of fauna have adapted to these
bal environmental changes in the conditions and can also act as in-
National Park and to document dicators of changes. The springs
them using up-to-date tools, espe- are currently being subjected to
cially at altitudes of the core zone zoological and chemical-physi-
which are not influenced, or are cal analysis in a five-year cycle in
barely influenced, by human ac- order to document and interpret
tivity. The following projects are future changes in fauna. To date,
intended to record the impacts of
climate change:
Climate monitoring
network
Climate monitoring stations are
the backbone of the projects be-
ing run in Berchtesgaden Nation-
al Park to document and evaluate
global climate change and its im-
pacts on Alpine ecosystems over
the long term. Data quality is en-
sured with the assistance of the
German Meteorological Service.
The climate data are evaluated
with particular reference to ex-
treme weather events and climat-
ic water balance. Last year, some
15 years after the start of monitor-
ing, an evaluation of the climate
monitoring network took place,

more than 700 species of fauna nological phases correlate very View from Archenkanzel over Königssee
lake
have been found in the National neatly with temperature trends.
Park‘s springs, including eight spe- In Berchtesgaden National Park,
cies which were new to science; two International Phenological
several species are being newly Gardens have been established,
described. Last year saw the pub- one on Schapbach and the oth-
lication of Research Report 51, er on Kühroint. In addition, phe-
“Quellen im Nationalpark Berchtes- nological observations are under
gaden. Lebensgemeinschaften als In- way at around 30 sites in the alti-
dikatoren des Klimawandels” [Water tude profile from the area above
Springs in Berchtesgaden National Wimbachbrücke via Schapbach
Park: Communities as Indicators to Kühroint. This corresponds to
of Climate Change], which deals a height above NN of around 700-
with this topic. 1,400 m. The project was initiat-
ed, at the proposal of the Nation-
Phenology al Park Administration, by the
Institute of Botany at the Univer-
Phenology is the study of the
sity of Salzburg in 1994–1997 and
times of recurring natural phe-
since then has been pursued by
nomena and can encompass ob-
the national service. The entire
servations of both flora and fau-
data series will be evaluated sci-
na. In plants, phenology observes
entifically in the near future once
and records the date of emergence
funding has been secured.
of characteristic vegetation stag-
es (phases). Such phenomena are
very sensitive to weather and cli-
mate, so they can be used in many
different types of application and
fields of research. It seems likely
that in future, phenological data
will be used increasingly in the
analysis of climate trends as the
dates of emergence of many phe-

term studies are intended to act
as an early warning system for
global climatic changes. Phase II
of the project, which is funded
by the Deutsche Forschungsgemein-
schaft (German Research Founda-
tion), revisited around 40 sites at
Horstseggen-Rasen and Polsterseg-
gen-Rasen, which had initially
been the subject of phyto-socio-
logical studies as part of a project
part-funded by the Federal En-
vironment Agency in the Hoher
Göll – Schneibstein – Kahlersberg
area in 1984–1988. The National
Park Administration supported
the project through preselection
using its own GIS and database
Peak vegetation data and by surveying in the sam-
ple sites using the National Park‘s
This project, led by the Institute of
GPS. The data were transferred
Ecology and Conservation Biology
to the National Park Administra-
at the University of Vienna, looks
tion‘s botanical information sys-
at the influence of climate warm-
tem. The study showed that cer-
ing on the altitudinal distribution
tain species reacted more strong-
of alpine plants. The Department
ly to warming and can be found
of Ecology, Geobotany Unit, at the
in increased numbers at the sam-
Center of Life and Food Sciences
pling sites. Diversity in the Al-
Weihenstephan and the Adminis-
pine grassland has increased. In
tration of Berchtesgaden National
Berchtesgaden National Park, the
Park set up a third sampling site
comparison of historical and cur-
on the Graskopf (2,500 m NN) in
rent vegetation records showed
2006. Other sites had previously
clear indications of changed spe-
been set up on Schlunghorn peak
cies composition in these habitats.
(2,200 m NN) and Hochscheibe
In the last 20 years, many species
(2,400 m NN). The data are in-
have shown noticeable population
tegrated into the National Park
growth and species richness has
Administration‘s central botani-
increased. The increase in temper-
cal database and shared with the
ature has encouraged the growth
headquarters of the Global Obser-
and reproduction of many species,
vation Research Initiative in
with the result that they now oc-
Alpine Environments (GLORIA) in
cur more frequently, with typical
Vienna.
“filling” processes taking place.
The findings were published in Re-
Alpine vegetation search Report 52, “Auswirkungen
The Department of Ecology, Geo- des Klimawandels auf alpine Pflan-
botany Unit, at the Center of Life zengemeinschaften im Nationalpark
and Food Sciences Weihenstephan Berchtesgaden” [Impacts of Climate
studied the influence of climate Change on Alpine Plant Commu-
warming on the altitudinal distri- nities in Berchtesgaden National
bution of Alpine plants. The long- Park].

Snow cover project
As part of the GLOWA-Danube
Project, which is sponsored by the
Federal Ministry of Education and
Research (BMBF), a snow cover
modelling project is currently be-
ing carried out in Berchtesgaden
National Park by Munich Univer-
sity‘s Institute of Geography. The
project is intended to determine
the variability of snow cover and
therefore models the amount of
snowfall, snow distribution and
snowmelt in the National Park.
Current climate data are essential
for this purpose, so the Avalanche
Warning Centre provides data
from the automatic monitoring sta-
tions at Kühroint/Funtenseetauern,
Kühroint and Jenner, and Schönau
Climate Station, which is run by
the special purpose association
of tourist region Berchtesgaden- selected as a “super test site”. It
Königssee (Zweckverband Tourismus- provides an entry point into the
region Berchtesgaden-Königssee). The hydrological and substance flow
automatic climate monitoring sta- model which is to become a key
tions which are planned for the Al- element of long-term environmen-
pine zone of the National Park in tal monitoring in the National
future will be utilised for this pur- Park. It also plays an important
pose once their funding and long- role in developing an understand-
term operation are secure. The ing and therefore providing pro-
project makes a contribution to the tection from natural hazards such
GLOWA-Danube Project, in which as flooding and avalanches out-
Berchtesgaden National Park was side the National Park.
Contact:
Berchtesgaden National Park Administration

Helmut Franz
Head of Research Coordination and Information Systems
Doktorberg 6
83471 Berchtesgaden, Germany
Tel.: + 49 (0)8652 96 86 0
Fax: + 49 (0)8652 96 86 40
Email: H.Franz@nationalpark-berchtesgaden.de
Website: www.nationalpark-berchtesgaden.de

The Aletsch Glacier in Wallis canton,
Switzerland, the longest glacier in the Alps
(23.6 km)
Glaciers a 30-70% decrease in volume by boundary will probably shift up-

2050. The glacier equilibrium line wards by several hundred metres,
The glaciers – with few exceptions is likely to shift upwards by 60- which in conjunction with glacier
– are retreating, not only in the 140 m for every 1° C of warming. retreat could lead to slope insta-
Alps but worldwide. This strong In addition, the lower permafrost bility.
retreat is one of the clearest indi-
cators that climate change is tak-
ing place and having profound Modelled remains of the Alpine glacierisation according to an increase in sum-
impacts on our environment. In mer air temperature of +1 to +5°C
melt conditions, the glacier sur-
face temperature reaches 0°C,
which is why glaciers react very
sensitively to temperature fluctu-
Entire European Alps
ations. In addition, the tempera-
Switzerland
ture increase in mountain regions
Climatic accumilation area (% of cAA of 1971–90)
was well above average during Italy

the 20th century. As a result, for France
the Alps as a whole, the glacial Austria
area has been reduced by 50% Germany
since the mid 19th century.
Under climatic conditions such as

those modelled in regional simu-
lations – i.e. a greater increase in
temperature at higher altitudes,
heavier and more intensive pre-
cipitation in winter, and dry sum-
mers – the European Alps will
lose major parts of their glacier
cover within the next few dec-
ades. Smaller glaciers will disap-
pear, and larger ones will suffer Temperature change (˚C)
The total of 100% refers to the ice cover of the reference period (1971–90) and corresponds to
1,950 km2 for the entire Alps.
Source: Zemp (2006)

Not only glacier cover but also
glacial mass and the volume of ice
are decreasing. The Alpine gla-
ciers, for example, could lose as A) Morteratsch Glacier (Switzerland) in 1992
much as one-quarter of their mass
by the mid 21st century. Indeed,
with warming as predicted, up to
95% of Alpine glacier mass could
disappear by the end of the centu-
ry. This would result in substantial
losses of glacier runoff in dry peri-
ods in summer and early autumn,
with major impacts on water re-
sources management in glacier-
fed lakes and rivers.
To sum up, it may be argued that B) The simulated photograph shows how the glacier might look in the year
glacial regions in mountain areas 2035 as a result of a temperature increase of 1.4°C and a corresponding
shift of +200 m in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA).
could be among the regions worst
affected by accelerated warming.
Unfortunately, due to the com-
plex interaction of numerous vari-
ables within the energy balance ˘ Alpine glaciers lost 50% in area from 1850 to 2000. A 3°C warming of summer
in these regions, the actual im- air temperature would reduce the currently existing Alpine glacier cover by a
pacts can only be estimated ap- further 80%, leaving just 10% of the glacier extent of 1850. (Zemp, 2006)
proximately. Research findings in-
dicate, however, that a large pro- ˘ As 90% of the Alpine glaciers are less than one square kilometre in area, the
portion of the mountain glaciers probability that most glaciers will disappear in the coming decades is not incon-
existing around the world today siderable. (Zemp, 2006)
could disappear within the next
100 years. ˘ Changes in the cryosphere (ice) of the Alps would have major consequences for
the water flow regime of rivers and would also affect shipping. (IPCC, 1997)

Glaciers, the Water Cycle and Water Yield
by Dr. Ludwig Braun and Dr. Markus Weber
Introduction
The Alpine glaciers play an im-
portant role as “water towers” in
the hydrological cycle and have
a regulating effect on water flow
from the high mountain regions.
As a result of the warming which
has occurred since the mid 19th
century, at least 50% of the wa-
ter stored in the form of ice has
flowed off, and if the trend which
can be observed over the last
150 years continues, the majori-
ty of glaciers could disappear be-
fore the end of the century. What
would be the consequences for The Reichenspitz Group on the Gerlossee lake
channel flow in Alpine rivers? Are in Hohe Tauern National Park (Austria)
there opportunities to slow down
the melting through human inter-
vention?
cent to rivers (with the exception air masses approach the moun-
of the Po) are obviously less at risk tains.
The Alps:
from drought despite the particu-
Europe‘s water tower
larly strong increase in median In the mountains, a large propor-
One of the most serious impacts temperatures. tion of this precipitation in the an-
of climate change could be large- nual seasonal cycle initially falls
scale water scarcity. The summer The Alpine countries currently as snow, most of which melts dur-
of 2003 in Central Europe provid- benefit from the particular char- ing spring and early summer. The
ed a mild foretaste of the prob- acteristics of the Alpine climate. rivers then receive an injection of
lems which Europe could face in The mountains form a consider- water, in the form of meltwater,
future, as do the extremely dry able obstacle to air currents, forc- in addition to current precipita-
periods currently (i.e. early sum- ing the air masses to rise and tion. In unfavourable conditions,
mer 2007) being experienced in thus greatly encouraging the this meltwater can be so abundant
Spain, Portugal and southern Ita- formation of precipitation. As a that it causes the flooding events
ly. By contrast, Alpine communi- rule, the amount of precipitation that are notorious in the Alpine
ties and those living directly adja- on peaks on the weather side of foothills in spring. In general, the
mountains is a good three times reserves of snow in the mountains
higher than in the surrounding continue to feed the mountain
area. Precipitation begins to in- streams and rivers well into sum-
crease noticeably as soon as the mer, even during dry episodes.

Glaciers and their hydro- maintained under the climatic high-altitude basins and plateaus,
logical significance conditions prevailing in recent or areas of ridges (see Figure, “Sat-
centuries. Rather like the pud- ellite image of the Alpine Arc”).
Even if no precipitation occurs for
dles which always appear in the This gave rise to the image of the
a longer period in summer due to
same place after rain or snow, gla- ice-bound Alps, which is borne out
fine weather conditions, most of
cial ice was formed at those sites by historical records dating from
the major Alpine rivers still con-
where the balance between the the mid 19th century.
tain substantial amounts of wa-
accumulated snow and snowmelt
ter. This is primarily due to the
shifted in favour of the former.
glaciers, which formed and were
These sites generally include
Satellite image of the Alpine Arc

Coloured according to the depiction of mean annual precipitation levels 1971-1990, based on Schwarb et al. (2001, Hydrologischer Atlas der Schweiz,
Blatt 2.6), with dry areas (N < 600 mm) shown in red, wet areas (N > 1,500 mm) shown in blue and glacier/snow areas in white. This shows that the majority
of glaciers are found in high altitudes in the Central Alps and in the precipitation-rich northern periphery of the Alps. Image processing: M. Weber

It was then that the glaciers zone, where all accumulated snow would have been at least twice
reached their most recent maxi- from the winter is lost – has clear- as high. Detailed observations of
mum positions. Today‘s Alpine ly shifted towards ablation, due changes in the mass of selected
glaciers are therefore not relics to the gradual warming of the air glaciers also show that losses in
of the last Ice Age but have been temperature near the ground. The glacial mass have been especially
continually renewed by the inter- glaciers are no longer increasing high in the last 25 years, amount-
action between the processes of in size; on the contrary, they are ing to at least one-third of the
snow accumulation and melting. losing much of their substance ac- original total mass. Rather like a
cumulated prior to 1850. bank account whose balance con-
Since the glaciers reached their stantly changes as a result of in-
most recent maximum position At the end of the 20th century, coming payments and outgoing
around 1850, glacier equilibrium there were still around 5,000 gla- expenditure, the shrinking of the
– which maintains a balance be- ciers with a total area of 2,500 glaciers could be attributed both
tween the accumulation zone, km2 and an estimated ice volume to a decrease in snowfall and to
where snowpack is retained to the of 125 km2 in the European Alps. stronger snowmelt. Studies on
end of summer, and the ablation Around 1850, however, the figures this issue, e.g. at the Vernagtfern-
360° panoramic view of the glaciers in the rear Ötztal from Kreuzspitze, 3,455 m
The top picture is based on a drawing by Engelhard and Jordan done in 1869; at the bottom is a photograph from July 2005. A comparison shows the detail
and accuracy of the older picture, but also the extent of deglaciation within the last 136 years in this region. Image processing: M. Weber

er glacier in the Ötztal Alps, show
that the amount of snow falling
in winter has not changed signifi-
cantly, whereas the amounts of
meltwater produced in summer
have virtually doubled since the
start of monitoring – even though
the area of the glacier has steadily
decreased to around two-thirds of
its original size. Returning brief-
ly to the bank account metaphor,
the outgoings exceed incoming
payments to such an extent that
in the near future, there is a real
risk of insolvency: in other words,
the disappearance of most of the
Alpine glaciers. Vernagtferner Glacier in 1844 and 2001

Decrease in mass of the Vernagtferner glacier since 1846 in relation to the
rise in mean temperature in the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC) on the Zugspitze
peak since 1990 and at Vernagtbach gauging station since 1974
When and where glacier
discharge begins [million/t.] The Vernagtferner glacier and climate change [°C]
So what makes glaciation so sen-

sitive to climatic changes and
causes glacial streams to swell to
such extent? The solution to this
conundrum can be found in sum-
mer. To the layperson, glaciers are
only visible in summer when they
are quite distinct from their snow-
free surroundings. This is also
when the many glacier streams
are noticed, which carry glacial
meltwater quickly and efficiently
into the valley. It can be observed
that the water flows are most
abundant on hot and cloudless Reference period for temperature deviation: 1961-1990
sunny days, for it is incoming so-
lar radiation which supplies most
of the energy needed to melt ice
and snow.
A snow-free process. However, if the dark ice
It would be logical, then, to ex-

glacier produces far of the glacier appears from un-
pect the highest quantities of

more meltwater der the snow, as much as 10 cm of
ice can melt on a warm summer‘s
meltwater to be produced around In essence, a glacier melts in the
day. This process is known as “ab-
noon during the days of early same way as an ice cube in a
lation”.
summer, when the position and bowl. On its surface, energy is ab-
intensity of the sun reach their sorbed from the environment and
The meltwater that is formed
peak. In fact, the highest dis- is used for phase conversion as
flows along crevasses and frac-
charges do not occur until high soon as the surface temperature
tures in the glacier‘s surface
summer, generally during the reaches freezing point. Heat ex-
(meltwater streams; see photo of
first half of August. The reason is change between the atmosphere
a surface ice channel on p. 54,
that meltwater formation does not and the glacier is a complex proc-
left) and englacial channels (gla-
depend solely on the supply of en- ess which depends not only on
cier mills – channels and tunnels;
ergy (solar radiation) but also on the radiation and temperature
see photo of an ice cave on p. 54,
the proportion of this energy that conditions but especially on air
right) and finally through a net-
is absorbed and utilised. movement and humidity as well.
work of channels, comparable
In simple terms, the lighter and
with a municipal drainage sys-
smoother the snow and ice sur-
tem, along the base of the glacier,
face, the less energy it absorbs. A
where it merges and flows out at
dark crevassed ice surface absorbs
the glacier mouth, causing strong
at least 4–5 times more solar radi-
diurnal variations in the chan-
ation and heat energy than fresh
nel flow of the glacial stream. The
smooth snow.
quality of the accumulation zone
is important in this context. If
As long as the glacier is snow-
covered, melting occurs slowly
as most of the incoming solar ra-
diation is reflected and is there-
fore not available to the melting

Vernagtferner Glacier in 1898, 1992 and 2005
more than two-thirds of the en-

tire surface area of the glacier is
covered with snow that has been
left over from past seasons (firn),
the water is retained, rather like
a sponge, for days at a time and
then discharges slowly. This was
the case in the second half of the
1960s and in the 1970s, when
mass budget conditions were fa-
vourable to glaciation. Following
the years of heavy loss of glacial
mass, observed since 1980, the
firn-covered surfaces have be-
come greatly reduced, resulting
in stronger and swifter meltwa-
ter runoff and far greater diurnal
variations in the glacier stream
(see photos on p. 55, top). Accel-
erated loss of mass, on the other
hand, results primarily from an
increase in the number of days
with strong glacial melt com-
pared with “before”. An extreme
scenario was observed in 2003,
when instead of the usual 10–20
days with strong melting, 100
such days suddenly occurred. This
observation tallies with climate
models, which do not necessarily
predict warmer days at all times,
but forecast an increase in the
number of hot and above-average
warm days.

Glaciers as the source of Accelerated glacial melt Glacier
flooding and shrinking glaciers farming?
Climate researchers predict that Some glacial melt processes have The management of glaciers, e.g.
in future, precipitation in the a self-reinforcing effect, with the through ski tourism, becomes a
summer months will be limited result that despite their decrease problem if pollution and mechani-
to a few very heavy short-term in area, the glaciers are losing cal stress reduce the snow‘s reflec-
events. Due to the continued up- more mass year on year. For ex- tive capacity and changes the sur-
ward shift of the frost limit, pre- ample, released sediment is in- face properties. Due to increased
cipitation will fall as rain, even creasingly working its way to the absorption of solar radiation and
up to high altitudes; this removes ice surface, making it appear even therefore melting heat at local lev-
the earlier and effective self-pro- darker and further increasing el, this may increase glacial melt.
tection mechanism against flood- the absorption of solar radiation. In general, however, this can be
ing, for the short-term storage of Furthermore, the decrease in the regarded as a subordinate prob-
precipitation in the form of snow snow and ice surface is causing a lem. By contrast, operators of ski
delayed the discharge of water further rise in the frost limit, for lift systems are attempting, at lo-
and protected the Alpine valleys the reduced warming of the near- cal level, to slow down the melt-
from more serious disasters. Un- ground layer of air caused by ing process through “snow farm-
der current conditions, the far melt in glaciated areas produced ing” by adding additional snow
more abundant meltwater pro- somewhat lower median tempera- under the apparatus or piling it
duced on hot days may merge and tures in the Alps compared with up for the halfpipe and covering
become overlaid with runoff from lowland. it with light reflective material.
Drainage channels on the surface (left) and in the ice body (right) of the Vernagtferner Glacier
thunderstorms, as occurred on 4 The increasingly unfavourable re- However, these measures are only
August 1998 in the Vernagtbach lationship between glaciated and intended to protect the installed
catchment in the Ötztal Alps. snow- and ice-free area is thus re- systems, not preserve the glacier
sulting in accelerated warming in its entirety, for they are local-
in the Alpine region and there- ised in scope and have a very lim-
fore to even more intensive gla- ited effect.
cial melt. A stronger increase in
the local temperature in the Alps
compared with the global median
temperature can already be ob-
served.

Summary
The changes occurring in the Al-
pine glaciers are clear evidence
of climate change and are vis-
ible to everyone. General glacial
melting has been under way for
around 150 years, with a brief pe-
riod of recovery and glacial ad-
vance in the 1960s and 1970s. At
present, during hot dry summers,
the consumption of the ice re-
serves is causing above-average
water flow from the high moun- Peak values of runoff at Vernagtbach Gauging Station
tains, thus preventing serious dry- have more than doubled since the start of continuous
ing out of mountain rivers. If the monitoring in 1973
glaciers disappear, however, no
such input during dry periods
would occur. Channel flow in the
rivers would then depend sole-
ly on precipitation, which varies
considerably. Not least, deglacia-
tion would alter the appearance
of the mountain regions in a neg-
ative way, so these regions would
lose some of their appeal for tour-
ists. In the mid 1970s, mean in-
Comparative views of the Platt with the Schneeferner
creases of 30 cm per year could
from Zugspitze peak in 1890 (top) and 2003 (below).
be observed in the Vernagtferner
The protective sheeting laid out by ski operators are
glacier, and in order to offset the
visible in the bottom photograph.
loss which occurred in 2003, sev- Photos of 10.8.2003 and image processing of archive photo: M. Weber
en wet and cold years of the type
seen in summers in the 1970s are
required.
Contact:
Dr. Ludwig N. Braun and

Dr. Markus Weber
Commission for Glaciology
of the Bavarian Academy of Sciences
Marstallplatz 8
80539 München, Germany
Tel.: +49 (0)89 230 31-1195
Fax: +49 (0)89 230 31-1100
Website: www.glaziologie.de

GLACIERS IN THE GREENHOUSE and GLACIER ARCHIVE
A Project by the Society for Ecological Research
The most visible sign of climate The pictorial comparisons docu- the greenhouse effect caused
change is the melting of the ment the rapid melting of the Al- by industry is considered the
glaciers. Therefore, in 1999 the pine glaciers. This comprehensive main cause.
Society for Ecological Research work is extremely important, for
(Gesellschaft für ökologische For- the very subject of the develop- The projects Glaciers in the
schung e.V.) set up the Glacier ment it records is progressively Greenhouse and the Glacier Ar-
Archive, a photographic docu- disappearing. chive (for more information see
mentation comparing glaciers www.gletscherarchiv.de Eng-
throughout the Alps. The Society for Ecological Research lish site in preparation) have
focuses on ecological relations in thus become an important
The archive is based on a col- major photographic exhibitions, source of information about
lection of 7,000 historical pho- for example the exhibition “Beau- climate change and its conse-
tographs of Alpine glaciers. tiful New Alps” (1998–2003), which quences for the Alpine region.
Postcards and photographs toured the entire Alps region.
from the beginning of the last The book “Glaciers in the
century are contrasted with re- The project Glaciers in the Green- Greenhouse”, containing over
cent pictures of the same site house has been on exhibition 100 glacier comparisons and
taken from the same vantage since 2004 and is continually numerous articles by experts
point. New photographs of updated. It has met with a posi- was published to accompany
these comparisons are current- tive response both at home and the exhibition.
ly being taken. abroad. The exhibition not only
illustrates the disappearance of The glacier project is supported
the glaciers, it also provides infor- by Greenpeace.
mation on global climate change:
Trift glaciers, Gadmental, Switzerland, 1948, 2002 and 2006
Contact:
Gesellschaft für ökologische Forschung e.V.
Frohschammerstr. 14
Tel.: +49 (0)89 359 85 86
Email: info@oekologische-forschung.de
Website: www.oekologische-forschung.de
www.gletscherarchiv.de

pine permafrost warmed by 0.5-
0.8°C. Fitting in with this pic-
ture, during the very hot sum-
mer of 2003, an unusually high
number of rock falls occurred in
the Alps. This could be regarded
as an early and unexpected sign
of climate change. Furthermore,
the development and growth of
glacial lakes, caused by the melt-
ing of the glaciers, increase the
risk of debris flows and devastat-
ing outbreak floods. Scientists pre-
Natural hazards mation of debris flows and slope dict that both the number and
failure, while slope stability is re- the size of these glacial lakes will
Alongside the above-mentioned duced as a result of permafrost increase. However, according to
weather extremes such as heavy melt. There is a concern that hot- current scientific knowledge, the
precipitation or drought, natu- ter summers, as forecast in the occurrence of avalanches does
ral hazards are especially rele- climate models, will lead to in- not appear to be influenced by cli-
vant in connection with glaciers creased instability of rock faces mate change to any measurable
and permafrost in Alpine terrain. and cause rock falls in the com- extent. Thus the potential hazards
Changes in glaciers, snow cover ing decades, putting valleys at associated with glacial and per-
and permafrost and especially the risk. During the last century, Al- mafrost melt include:
resulting natural hazards can be
regarded as some of the most vis-
ible sides of climate warming and
have a major impact on human
communities. Human and envi- ˘ outbreaks from glacial lakes, causing flooding and debris flows
ronmental vulnerability in Alpine
communities therefore appears to ˘ ice falls and ice avalanches
be increasing rapidly.
˘ stable and unstable (abrupt) glacier changes
The Swiss National Platform for
Natural Hazards (PLANAT) warns ˘ destabilisation of rock faces
that the general warming and
more intensive precipitation that ˘ combinations of, and chain reactions between, these events (Kääb, 2005)
is predicted will facilitate the for-

Cars are buried in debris after a scree
avalanche in a Swiss Alpine village
The examples of adaptation in the Adaptation to climate change Furthermore, risk maps should
Monte Rosa massif on the Italian- also requires more flexible and be updated more frequently and
Swiss border, where a potentially forward-looking natural hazard the quality of their data on future
dangerous glacial lake was artifi- management. Traditionally, natu- risks should be improved. Cost-ef-
cially drained, and the construc- ral hazard management has been fective methods are required to
tion of barriers in Pontresina (En- based on empirical experience take account, on a regular basis,
gadin, Switzerland) to protect the and past events, but this no longer of the rapid changes occurring in
community from the threat of appears appropriate in light of cli- high Alpine regions and identify
debris flows resulting from per- mate change. Preventive measures the most vulnerable areas.
mafrost melt, are niche examples should therefore take account
compared with the scale of the of more frequent and stronger
anticipated changes in the Al- weather extremes.
pine region. There is an urgent
need for efficient natural hazard
assessment and mitigation meth-
ods which must go beyond short-
term project financing, so that cli-
mate change can be incorporated
more effectively into risk assess-
ment and policy-making on natu-
ral hazards.
Eschenlohe municipality during the flood

disaster in the Bavarian Alps in summer 2005

Satellite-based remote sensing and
good modelling can support the
evaluation of natural hazards re-
sulting from accelerated change
in the Alpine region. The macros-
cale influence of the climate will
far exceed any human-induced en-
vironmental impacts at local lev-
el. The major challenge, therefore,
is to adapt to these impacts of cli-
mate change.
Porous rock in the Dolomites, Italy
˘ The great potential of natural hazard assessment using numerical models and
remote sensing should be fully exploited.
˘ Risk maps should take account of the changed risks.
˘ Objective scientific criteria should be developed to assess the risk potential

of natural hazards, and should be applied internationally.
˘ More intensive information exchange on natural hazards between the scien-

tific community and policy-makers is essential in order to raise awareness
and increase the willingness of local authorities to utilise and build on exist-
ing knowledge.
References
Gruber, S. et al. (2004) Permafrost IPCC (Hrsg.) (2007) Climate Change PLANAT (2007) Klimaänderung und
thaw and destabilisation of Alpine 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Naturkatastrophen in der Schweiz,
rock walls in the hot summer of Faktenblatt, Nationale Plattform
2003, Geophysical Research Letters, IPCC (Hrsg.) (2007) Climate Change Naturgefahren, www.planat.ch.
31. 2007: Climate Change Impacts,
Adaption and Vulnerability. Jetté-Nantel, S. und Agrawala, S.
Häberli, W. und Beniston, M. (2007) Climate change adaption
(1998) Climate change and its im- IPCC (Hrsg.) (1997) The Region- and natural hazards management,
pact on glaciers and permafrost in al Impacts of Climate Change: An in OECD (Hrsg.) Climate Change in
the Alps, Ambio, 27 (4), S. 258–265. Assessment of Vulnerability, Cam- the European Alps, S. 61–93.
bridge University Press.
Huggel, C. et al. (2006) High-moun- Zemp et al. (2006) Alpine glaciers
tain hazards in the perspective of Kääb et al. (2005) Glacier and Per- to disappear within decades?, Geo-
climate change effects: monitoring mafrost Hazards in High Moun- physical Research Letters, 33.
and assessment strategies. W.J. Am- tains, in Huber et al. (Hrsg.) Glo-
mann, et al. (Hrsg.), Proceedings of bal Change and Mountain Regions,
the International Disaster Reduction Springer, Dordrecht, S. 225–234.
Conference, IDRC Davos 2006, Vol.
2, S. 231–233. Paul, F. et al. (2007) Calculation
and visualisation of future glacier
extent in the Swiss Alps by means of
hypsographic modelling, Global and
Planetary Change, 55, S. 343–357.

The Platform on Natural Hazards
of the Alpine Convention (PLANALP)
The extent of the damage caused by natural hazards is constant-
ly increasing. The main reasons for this include the concentration
and increase of value, more vulnerable infrastructures, and in-
creasing requirements with regard to mobility. Climate change in
the Alpine region exacerbates these impacts. Strategies and meas-
ures that are agreed across the Alpine region as a whole are there-
fore urgently needed. The Platform on Natural Hazards of the Al-
pine Convention (PLANALP) was established by the VIIIth Alpine
Conference in November 2004. It develops joint strategies for the
mitigation of natural hazards and advises on appropriate adapta-
tion strategies.
After the devastating avalanches pointed by ministers at the VIIIth

and floods of 1999, the Alpine Alpine Conference in 2004. The
Conference appointed a working mandate of PLANALP covers both
group to develop common strat- the formulation of strategic con-
egies and activity fields on the cepts on integrated risk manage-
level of the parties to the Alpine ment against natural hazards and
Convention, with a view to es- the coordinated implementation
tablishing a Platform on Natural of subsequent measures.
Hazards. PLANALP was then ap-
Debris flow after heavy rain in September

2005 in Schoppernau/Vorarlberg (Austria)
Integrated risk management means the entire process in a cycle of preparedness, response and
recovery.
Source: Bundesamt für Bevölkerungsschutz, Schweiz

The contracting parties to the Al- In November 2006, PLANALP‘s Eschenlohe municipality during the flood
disaster in the Bavarian Alps in summer 2005
pine Convention delegated high- long term working programme
level experts to PLANALP in or- was approved by the IXth Alpine
der to ensure effective network- Conference. Principal topics in-
ing and coordination of mitigation clude “Integrated Risk Manage-
activities in the Alpine region. ment”, “Early Warning Systems”
Andreas Götz, a Vice-Director of and “Risk Dialogue”. In dealing
Switzerland‘s Federal Office for the with these issues, the economic,
Environment (FOEN) and President social and environmental aspects
of the Swiss National Platform of sustainability are a particular
for Natural Hazards (PLANAT), focus of attention. There are
is the current chair of PLANALP. plans to provide information on
PLANALP works closely with the selected topics such as “taking
relevant professional internation- account of climate change in the
al and national institutions in the development of protection strate-
field of natural hazards. gies”.
After beginning work, PLANALP

focussed primarily on the ex-
change of knowledge and expe-
rience among its member coun- Contact:
tries. To the end of 2007, PLANAT
is undertaking an in-depth analy- Secretariat of the Platform on Natural Hazards
sis of current management tools of the Alpine Convention (PLANALP)
and practices in the Alpine coun- Simone Hunziker
tries for dealing with natural haz- c/o Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN)
ards. This is part of a comprehen- Hazard Prevention Division
sive focal point project on climate CH-3003 Bern, Switzerland
change funded by the INTERREG Tel.: +41 (0)31 324 17 73
III B Alpine Space Programme. Fax: +41 (0)31 324 78 66
Email: simone.hunziker@bafu.admin.ch
Website: www.planat.ch
(> PLANAT > Alpine Convention – PLANALP)

The “ClimChAlp“ project
How will climatic and other research institutes are
changes impact on involved in the project on a con-
natural hazards? tractual basis.
The ClimChAlp (“Climate The project is part of the Europe-

Change, Impacts and Adaptation an Union‘s INTERREG III B Alpine
Strategies in the Alpine Space”) Space Programme and funding
project is a Bavarian initiative for for the period to March 2008 to-
the Alpine countries to adopt a tals € 3.54 million, with around
joint approach to the challenges half of this coming from the Euro-
posed by climate change in the pean Regional Development Fund
Alpine space and develop adapta- (ERDF).
tion strategies.
Purpose and objectives
ClimChAlp is the foundation
stone for an “Action Plan for the The Bavarian State Government
Alps” in which adaptation to the adopts a “dual principle” to the
unavoidable effects of climate issue of climate change: it fo-
change is addressed as an urgent cusses on CO2 reduction, on the
issue. The project establishes the one hand, and adaptation to
scientific bases and develops strat- the unavoidable impacts of cli-
egies for adaptation to climate mate change, on the other. The
change in the Alpine space. ClimChAlp project is part of this
climate protection strategy. Its
Adaptation to climate change in key focus is to develop appropri-
the Alps is a very important field ate adaptation strategies to miti-
of activity as the Alps are affected gate the negative impacts of cli-
in two ways: firstly, in the Alps, mate change in the Alpine re-
A scree avalanche close to a Swiss the temperature increase is al- gion. The task of defining these
farmhouse strategies requires a thorough un-
most twice the global average,
and all the climate models fore- derstanding of the Alps as a ho-
cast greater temperature increas- listic ecosystem which reacts very
es in future too; and secondly, sensitively to global and regional
climate change has particularly changes. However, there are still
severe and in some cases unfore- considerable gaps in the knowl-
seeable impacts in the Alps, as a edge, which can only be reduced
highly sensitive ecosystem. through large-scale Alpine-wide
cooperation on an interdiscipli-
A total of 22 partners from the nary and transnational basis. IN-
Alpine countries of Slovenia, Ita- TERREG III B offers the ideal plat-
ly, Austria, Switzerland, Liechten- form from which to initiate and
stein, France and Germany are facilitate this type of project.
participating in this international
project. Ministries and subordi- Description
nate authorities at individual state The ClimChAlp project was
and provincial level have joined launched at a working meeting
together to form an intensive of the project partners in the Ba-
project partnership. Universities varian State Ministry of the Envi-

ronment, Public Health and Con-
sumer Protection (StMUGV) on 22
March 2006. The comprehensive
work programme has included
the analysis of historical climate
data, along with climate model-
ling to assist in the development
of future scenarios aimed at gain-
ing a better understanding of the
current and future impacts of cli-
mate change on natural hazards
in the Alps. Flooding, slope failure
and the increased threat posed
by scree flows and debris flows as org. One example of the current A lack of snow in January 2007 in
a consequence of melting perma- work is the compilation of infor- Riezlern in the Kleinwalser Valley,
Vorarlberg (Austria)
frost are a particular focus of at- mation and references on the
tention. With the development natural hazards associated with
of a “Flexible Response Network”, climate change, which can be ac-
the strategies to combat natural cessed at: http://risknat.obs.ujf-
hazards will be coordinated and grenoble.fr/projets/climchalp_
aligned on a transnational basis. wp5/pages_eng/base_eng.htm.
Detailed strategies for crisis man-
agement and risk avoidance are The synthesis of outcomes will
also being developed jointly. Other begin in the second half of 2007.
work deals with the impacts of cli- In this context, an “Extended
mate change on key economic sec- Scientific Report” (in English) is
tors such as tourism, or addresses planned, which will present the
regional planning issues. scientific findings in detail, as
well as a “Common Strategic Pa-
Outlook per” which will outline policy rec-
ommendations and adaptation
As one outcome of the project,
strategies on the basis of a short
which – after two years of inten-
summary of the relevant results.
sive work – is due to end in March
The Common Strategic Paper will
2008, forecasting of the anticipat-
be published in English and in
ed impacts of climate change has
the languages of the Alpine coun-
been improved and recommenda-
tries.
tions for administrative and policy
action developed.
The work, which is structured Contact:

around work packages (WPs),
is currently being undertaken Bavarian State Ministry
through numerous individual of the Environment, Public Health
projects and is well under way. In- and Consumer Protection (StMUGV)
formation about the project and Dr. Erik Settles
its work can be accessed on the Project Manager
project‘s website: www.climchalp. Rosenkavalierplatz 2
Tel.: +49 (0)89 92 14-3336
Website: www.climchalp.org

Health Communities have always been, heat waves can also increase the
and will continue to be, exposed number of those suffering health
Climate change can impact on to natural meteorological haz- impairment. However, if sum-
human health in very many dif- ards such as storms, flooding and mers generally become hotter in
ferent ways, e.g. by increasing the drought, but these could increase future, it is likely that adaptation
frequency and intensity of heat as a result of climate change. will take place and similar events
waves, or heightening the risk of will not claim so many lives. On
natural disasters and transmitted According to climatologists, it is the other hand, an increase in the
diseases, etc. As yet, very little re- very likely that human influence number of hot days could well at-
search has been undertaken on on the global climate has dou- tract more tourists to the Alps to
the links between climatic chang- bled the risk of heat waves occur- enjoy the fresh mountain air. In
es and factors influencing hu- ring, as in summer 2003. During the Alps themselves, hot summers
man health, and very few useful the heat wave in August 2003, the are more likely to lead to prob-
results exist. A distinction must death rate was 60% higher than lems as a result of melting perma-
also be made between weather- normal in France, with more than frost and the ensuing instability of
related and climate-based risks. 14,000 deaths. And although few- slopes rather than posing a direct
For example, climate change may er deaths are known to have oc- threat to human health.
change the risk of specific weath- curred in Alpine countries such
er conditions occurring, but an in- as Switzerland, the mortality With storms, a decrease in fre-
dividual event cannot be ascribed rate nonetheless increased here quency is more likely to occur in
conclusively to climate change. too. Higher air pollution during Central Europe. At the same time,
however, very strong storms may
become more frequent and could
thus pose a risk to more human
lives. On the other hand, flood-
ing could become one of the most
relevant impacts on health in the
Alps. In some cases, floods could
also result in the discharge of haz-
ardous chemicals from their nor-
mal storage places.

Tick warning
There is still great uncertainty also increased in size, etc. How- earlier start and peak of the pol-
about the indirect impacts of an- ever, the possibility that ticks may len season, especially affecting
thropogenic climate change, es- in future be found at higher alti- early-blooming species. The dura-
pecially as regards vector-borne tudes than before in the Alpine tion of the pollen season of some
diseases whose occurrence is in- regions cannot be ruled out. summer- and late-blooming spe-
fluenced by a range of factors: the cies will also be extended.
survival and reproduction rates of Climatic changes are also likely
the vectors, their distribution and to have impacts on hay fever and Most of the predicted human
frequency, and the infection rate asthma through their effects on health problems will not occur in
in the host. The climate can im- pollen and other allergens. Stud- Europe or the Alps, however. A
pact in diverse ways on many of ies show that in some cases, more change in the incidence of malar-
these influences, and is only one pollen is produced as a result of ia, yellow and dengue fever and
of many factors. So it is very dif- higher CO2 concentrations and/or poor drinking water quality will
ficult to attribute the spread of a temperatures. The World Health primarily affect the developing
pathogen to climatic changes. For Organization (WHO) forecasts an countries.
the Alps in particular, a key ques-
tion is whether an increase in the
spread of tick-borne diseases is
likely. A Czech study has noted ˘ Some uncertainty exists with regard to the causal relations between climate
that one common species of tick change impacts and vector-borne diseases. Nevertheless, conditions for the
has extended its range to higher spread and transmission of these diseases improve with rising temperatures,
altitudes, from 700–800 m to the so an increased risk can be assumed. (UBA, 2005)
current 1,250 m, over the last two
decades. ˘ Many central regions north of the Alps will experience longer grass pollen
seasons. (Emberlin, 1994)
For this site too, analysis of cli-
mate data clearly reveals a 2.5° C ˘ The health impacts of climate change are most likely to affect people whose
increase in average temperature health is already vulnerable, e.g. the elderly and children. (UBA, 2005)
for the May-August period. Yet in
parallel to these climatic changes,
many other changes have also oc-
curred: for example, populations
of the main host, i.e. deer, have

References
Beggs, P. (2004) Impacts of climate Kovats, R. (2001) Early effects of Umweltbundesamt (Hrsg.) (2005),
change on aeroallergens: past and climate change: do they include Klimawandel in Deutschland: Vul-
future, Clinical and Experimental changes in vector-borne disease?, nerabilität und Anpassungsstrate-
Allergy, 34, S. 1507–1513. Philosophical Transactions of the gien klimasensitiver Systeme,
Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Umweltbundesamt Forschungs-
Emberlin, J. (1994) The effects 356, S. 1057–1068. bericht 000844.
of patterns in climate and pollen
abundance on allergy, Allergy, 49, Materna, J. (2007) Distribution, WHO (Hrsg.) (2000) Climate
S. 15–20. density, and development of the ick Change and Human Health: Impact
Ixodes ricinus in mountainous areas and Adaption, World Health Orga-
Haines, A. (2006) Climate change influenced by climate changes, IX nisation, WHO/SDE/OEH/00.4.
and human health: impacts, vulner- International Jena Symposium on
ability, and mitigation, The Lancet, tick-born diseases.
367, S. 2101–2109.
Randolph, S. (2004) Evidence that
climate change has caused ‘emer-
gence’ of tick-borne diseases in
Europe?, International Journal of
Medical Microbiology, 293, Suppl. 37,
S. 5–15.

Tourism The winter of 2006/07 was ex- At present, 609 out of the 666 Al-
treme as far as snow cover was pine ski areas – i.e. 91% – are re-
The years 1994, 2000, 2002, and concerned. At lower locations be- garded as being snow-reliable. An
2003 were the warmest on record low 1,300 m, snow cover was un- area is considered to be snow-re-
in the Alps in the last 500 years. usually poor compared with the liable and economically viable if
Climate projections show even last 70 years. Nonetheless, a single there is at least 30 cm of snow for
greater impacts for the future, extreme winter cannot be taken at least 100 days per year. In Ger-
not only as a result of rising tem- as evidence of climate change; many, due to the relatively low al-
peratures but also in relation to the unusual combination of spe- titudes of its winter sports resorts,
precipitation and snowfall (see cific weather conditions is consid- this currently applies to only 69%.
above). Besides the natural haz- ered to be the cause. Nonetheless, According to an OECD report, Ger-
ards, the impacts on winter tour- if the researchers‘ climate mod- many is the country most at risk,
ism will have long-term conse- els are correct, this could be a with even the 1°C warming sce-
quences for life in the Alps. Tour- foretaste of the conditions which nario leading to a 60% decrease in
ism is a key pillar of the economy could become the norm in the the number of naturally snow-reli-
in the Alpine countries, generat- Alps within a few decades. able ski areas. Based on these esti-
ing around € 50 billion euros per mates, a global warming scenario
year in the Alpine region and pro- As a result of the generally warm- of 2°C would reduce these resorts
viding 10–12% of the jobs. So how er climate, the number of areas to just 13%, and to 61% Alpine-
will climate change impact on with snow reliability will be sig- wide. For winter tourism in Bava-
winter tourism? nificantly reduced. With ongoing ria, these are alarming figures.
climate change, according to cli-
mate models, southern Germany
must expect more precipitation at
the end of this century, but this
is more likely to fall as rain, not
snow. Only at high altitudes – es-
timates vary between 1,600 and
2,000 m – could precipitation fall
as snow, perhaps even in greater
amounts than before.

View of the Hohe Tauern with the
Grossglockner (almost 3,800 m) in the
Austrian ski resort of Obertauern
With warming of 4 ˚C, which is

not ruled out by climate models
if no climate policy measures are ˘ The number of snow-reliable winter sport areas will decrease massively as a
taken, Germany will have just one result of the predicted warming, and Germany could be hardest hit among the
ski resort with naturally guaran- Alpine countries.
teed snow. Although these figures
are estimates and therefore beset ˘ The OECD warns that almost all winter sport areas in Germany could face
with uncertainty, they nonethe- economic risks as a result of climate change.
less show a clear trend:
Snow reliability in the Alpine region under current conditions and under 1°C, 2°C and 4°C warming
Source: Abegg, B. et al. (2007)

One of the most widespread adap- and water consumption and local In contrast to the situation with
tation measures is artificial snow- ecological impacts. From a sus- winter tourism, summer tour-
making. In Bavaria, the area cov- tainability perspective, it is doubt- ism could increase to a dispropor-
ered by snow-making amounts ful whether artificial snow-mak- tionate extent and gain in impor-
to approximately 425 hectares ing is a sustainable adaptation tance, for in the event of more
(2004). This is about 11.5% of to- strategy for climate change. The frequent heat extremes, the cool
tal skiable terrain. However, artifi- International Commission for the mountain air could constitute a
cial snow can only partially com- Protection of the Alps (CIPRA) and very valuable resource. If the sci-
pensate for the effects of climate researchers from the University of entists‘ climate scenarios become
change, as most snow cannons Zurich therefore recommend that reality, a shift away from win-
can only be operated at temper- in response to climate change, ski ter and towards summer tourism
atures below 2°C. Snow-making resorts reduce their dependency could be expected.
also poses environmental exter- on winter tourism and pursue en-
nalities in terms of high energy hanced engagement in year-round
tourism.
Literatur
Abegg, B. et al. (2007) Climate
change impacts and adaption in
winter tourism, in OECD (Hrsg.) Cli-
mate Change in the European Alps:
Adapting Winter Tourism and Natu-
ral Hazard Management, S. 25–58.
Bader, S. und Kunz, P. (1998) Kli-

marisiken – Herausforderung für
die Schweiz, Wissenschaftlicher
Schlussbericht NFP 31, vdf, Zürich.
CIPRA (Hrsg.) (2006) CIPRA Info,

Wintertourismus im Wandel – Ski-
fahren in Ewigkeit, Amen?, 81,
12/2006.
CIPRA (Hrsg.) (2006) Klima – Wan-

del – Alpen: Tourismus und Raum-
planung im Wetterstress, CIPRA
Tagungsband 23/2006, oekom Ver-
lag, München.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

Hikers in the Spitzingsee region of the Bavarian
am Sonntag (2007) Was vom Win-
Alps
ter übrigbleibt, 15.04.2007, S. 63.
Haubner, E. (2002) Klimawandel

und Alpen: Ein Hintergrundbericht,
CIPRA International, www.alpme-
dia.net/pdf/Klimawandel_Alpen_
D.pdf.
Siegrist, D. (2007) Kommt jetzt der

neue Alpenwinter?, Vortrag am Tou-
rismusforum Alpenregionen, Ser-
faus, 26.03.2007.

Is the new Alpine winter approaching?
by Dr. Dominik Siegrist
1. Climate change and As well as adopting climate pro- further climate warming, on the
the Alps tection measures, the Alpine one hand, and developing adapta-
countries should start thinking tion strategies, on the other. How-
Climate change is a reality. Sum-
very soon about environmentally ever, the solutions are not only
mer heat waves, winter avalanch-
and socially compatible strategies technical in nature; they are also
es, flooding, debris flows and gla-
for adaptation to climate change. political and psychological. This
cier retreat – these are the first
This is especially relevant to the is where the municipalities in the
visible signs, and a foretaste of
Alps, for the specific conditions Alpine region have a key role to
what might await the Alps in fu-
prevailing here make them high- play, for strategies for adaptation
ture. Some municipalities are
ly sensitive to climate change. to the impacts of climate change
equipping themselves with snow
Indeed, the Alps could be said to must be implemented at local
cannons to combat an all-power-
have their own “early warning level, within the municipalities
ful enemy – climate change, the
system”. In future, we must focus themselves.
issue which will increasingly dom-
our efforts on two areas: avoiding
inate the political agenda in the
Alps in the coming years.
Climate experts agree that cli-

mate protection is the order of
the day, at least to keep climate Cable car on the 1,800 m Wendelstein
change in check, for the fact is mountain in the Bavarian Alps
that we have missed the opportu-

nity to stop it altogether. The cli-
mate situation in 2050 will show
us whether the outcomes of our
current policies have been suc-
cessful. With their biomass, wa-
ter, solar, wind and geothermal
resources, however, the Alps have
the potential to become a region
of best practice for the use of re-
newable energies. At present, this
potential is certainly not being ex-
ploited to the full, and nor are the
opportunities for energy-saving.

November 2006: snow cannon in use on the
Riederalp in Wallis canton, Switzerland
2. The significance
of climate change for
Alpine tourism
In its most recent study, the OECD
concludes that the current chang-
es affecting the global climate
will have dramatic impacts on Al-
increase in natural hazards jeop- time being. A further trend is to-
pine tourism (Abegg et al. [2007]).
ardise infrastructure, roads and wards the development of new
Depending on the temperature
settlements, while hiking and Al- pistes and facilities on slopes with
scenario, climate change will im-
pine tourism are also confronted longer-lasting snow cover.
pact especially on the cable car/
with new risks.
ski lift industry and the tourist re-
In sum, it is not only the impacts
gions which depend on it, putting
3. Adaptation and of climate change per se, but also
their economic future at risk. In
its impacts the impacts of adaptation which
view of the generally warmer cli-
threaten to have a negative ef-
mate, the number of snow-reli- Adaptation to the impacts of cli-
fect on the environment. How-
able areas will decrease signifi- mate change in the tourism in-
ever, by means of legal and plan-
cantly, according to the OECD in dustry began long ago. “Ground-
ning measures, it may be possible
its latest report. The decrease in independent transport facilities”,
to ensure that the implementa-
snow reliability will vary accord- i.e. chairlifts, are now standard
tion of strategies for adaptation
ing to altitude and regional cli- in ski resorts and are a key fea-
to climate change does not take
matic conditions around the ski ture of their basic infrastruc-
place at the expense of near-nat-
stations. In a worst-case scenario, ture. Year on year, cable car/ski
ural and previously undeveloped
the number of snow-reliable win- lift companies and the public
high mountain areas in the Alps.
ter sport resorts in some regions purse provide millions of euros in
The Alpine Convention provides
of the Alps could fall to zero. But funding for artificial snow-mak-
an appropriate framework for this
even with a minimal scenario, ing systems; an end of this re-
process. Within this framework,
a number of ski stations will no source-guzzling artificial snow
the Alpine countries could de-
longer be able to provide their ex- boom is not yet in sight (www.
velop and establish joint criteria
isting offer as a result of climate cipra.org/de/alpmedia/news/1729/
and guidelines for climate change
change. As well as winter tour- ?searchterm=dossier%20schnee-
mitigation, thereby ensuring that
ism, summer tourism will also kanonen). At the same time, there
the protection of the Alpine space
be strongly affected by climate is growing pressure for the con-
does not fall victim to the adapta-
change. For example, with the struction of cable cars and lifts at
tion process.
melting of the glaciers, the Alps higher altitudes and on glaciers,
are losing one of their key attrac- offering promoters the hope of
tions. Melting permafrost and an snow reliability at least for the

January 2007: a lack of snow at Oberjoch,
Germany‘s highest ski resort and mountain
village (approx. 1,200 m)
enable the resorts to deal with

changed conditions such as glo-
bal warming or a change in visi-
tor behaviour. The outcomes of the
STRATEGE project, which is being
implemented by the University of
Natural Resources and Applied Life
Sciences, Vienna, provide a basis
for discussion and decision-making
on future strategies for this tourist
region.
Davos (Switzerland) on the way

towards Kyoto
The Alpine city and ski resort of
Davos (Switzerland) is aiming to
achieve more climate-friendly lo-
cal policies. To this end, the mu-
nicipality has joined forces with
the Swiss Federal Institute for
4. A “new Alpine with the authorities, environmen- Snow and Avalanche Research
winter”? tal associations, other interested (SLF) and the Swiss Federal Re-
agencies and the general public. search Institute (WSL) and devel-
The new Alpine winter has not As part of the process, St. Moritz oped a study identifying measures
yet begun. Nonetheless, an in- is implementing a comprehen- to achieve the Kyoto target at lo-
creasing number of good practice sive energy project with a focus cal level. The highest energy-sav-
models for climate-sensitive tour- on renewable energies – hydro- ing potential is afforded by build-
ism can be found in various tour- power, solar, wind and biogas – at ings insulation. The researchers
ist regions. altitudes from 1,770 to 3,057 m are therefore recommending that
above sea level. At the same time, the municipality promote energy
Comprehensive energy property owners are obliged to efficiency, renewable energies and
project “Clean Energy
obtain one-third of their energy the sustainable use of local timber
St. Moritz“ (Switzerland)
from alternative sources or save and inform visitors and residents
The comprehensive energy energy by installing better insu- alike how they can make their
project “Clean Energy St. Moritz” lation. own contributions to climate pro-
was launched by the smart re- tection.
sort of St. Moritz (Switzerland) in STRATEGE research project,
an effort to reduce its consump- Schladming (Austria) Climate-neutral winter holidays
tion of electricity, diesel and heat-
Winter sport resorts around
in Arosa (Switzerland)
ing oil and replace these fuels
Schladming (Austria) are taking In order to safeguard climatic
with renewable, locally gener-
part in the STRATEGE research conditions in Arosa on a sustain-
ated energy. The impetus for the
project, which looks at the sus- able basis, climate-neutral winter
project came from the Interna-
tainable regional development of tariffs are being offered for ski-
tional Year of Mountains in 2002,
tourist regions in light of global ing and hiking holidays here. The
the International Year of Ecotour-
warming. As part of this project, offer is available for all the vari-
ism in 2002 and the 2003 Alpine
a tourism management model is ous categories of accommodation,
Ski World Championships. St. Mo-
being developed with the aim of both as a weekend package for
ritz initiated the project together
enabling winter sport regions to three nights and for five- or seven-
with partners from the business
produce a sustainability strategy night breaks. The price includes a
community and in cooperation
of their own. The strategies should ski or hiking pass. On departure,

References
Abegg, B./Agrawala, S./Crick, F./ thos, Zeitschrift für Landschaftsar-

de Montfalcon, A. (2007). Climate chitektur/Une revue pour le pasage
change impacts and adaption in 3/2004, S. 50–53.
winter tourism. In: OECD (2007).
Climate change in the European Siegrist, D. (2004). Alpentouris-
Alps. Paris, p 25–60. mus im Treibhaus – verschwinden
mit den Gletschern auch die Gäste?
CIPRA (2007). Wir Alpen! Men- In: Zängl, W./Hamberger, S. (Hrsg.).
the guest receives a personalised schen gestalten Zukunft. 3. Alpenre- Gletscher im Treibhaus. Eine foto-
port. Herausgegeben von der Inter- graphische Zeitreise in die alpine
certificate about his climate-neu- nationalen Alpenschutzkommission Eiswelt. Steinfurt. S. 234–238.
tral winter holiday, which also CIPRA. Bern.
states the amount of CO2 that has Siegrist, D. (2004). Tourismus.
CIPRA (2006). Klima - Wandel - Al- Nachhaltiger Tourismus mit der Al-
been neutralised. The emissions pen. Tourismus und Raumplanung penkonvention – “Wohin geht die
resulting from the winter holiday im Wetterstress. Tagungsband der Reise?” In: Alpenkonvention kon-
are offset through contributions CIPRA-Jahresfachtagung 2006 vom kret. Ziele und Umsetzung. Alpen-
18.-20. Mai 2006 in Bad Hindelang/ signale 2. Hrsg. Ständiges Sekretari-
to a biogas project in Germany. Deutschland. München/Schaan. at der Alpenkonvention. Innsbruck.
S. 45–49.
The “Soft Mobility Key“ Krebs, P./Siegrist, D. (1997). Kli-
maspuren. 20 Wanderungen zum Mathis, P./Kessler, R./Siegrist, D.
in Werfenweng (Austria) Treibhaus Schweiz. Reihe Natur- (2003). Neue Skigebiete in der
punkt im Rotpunktverlag, Zürich. Schweiz? Planungsstand und Finan-
The “Soft Mobility Key” (SAMO) zierung von touristischen Neu-
scheme is run by hotels in Wer- Müller, H.R./Weber, F. (2007). Kli- erschließungen unter besonder-
fenweng, Austria, in order to safe- maänderung und Tourismus. Szena- er Berücksichtigung der Kantone.
rienanalyse für das Berner Oberland Bern.
guard tourism in this small moun- 2030. Bern.
tain resort in the Salzburg re- Rott, A. (2006). Auswirkungen des
Siegrist, D./Mönnecke, M. (2004) Gletscherrückgangs auf den Tou-
gion on a long-term basis. Guests Neuer Alpenwinter? Klimafolgen rismus in den Schweizer Alpen am
who hand in their car keys and für die kleinen Bergtourismus-Orte/ Beispiel dreier Untersuchungsgebie-
leave them locked in the Werfen- Nouvel hiver alpin? In/dans: An- te. Diplomarbeit an der Universität
Trier.
weng tourist association‘s safe for
the duration of their holiday can
claim a wealth of additional ben-
efits which are reserved solely for
car-free guests: these benefits in- Contact:
clude a free transfer from Bischof-
shofen railway station with the CIPRA International
“Werfenweng Shuttle”; a mobile Im Bretscha 22
phone for the duration of the hol- Postfach 142
iday, to enable guests to call the FL-9494 Schaan
private chauffeur and his electric Fürstentum Liechtenstein
car for journeys within the resort; Tel.: +423 (0)237 403-0
free use of electric vehicles (elec- Website: www.cipra.org
tric scooters and mopeds) in Wer-
fenweng; cycle hire, free entry to CIPRA Germany
spas and a wide range of guided Heinrichgasse 8 Dr. Dominik Siegrist
walks and cycle tours. This pilot D-87435 Kempten/Allgäu,
project is now being expanded Germany is a lecturer and head of a re-
with the implementation of “mo- Tel.: +49 (0)831 52 09 501 search unit at the University of
bilito – the Mobility Management Website: www.cipra.de Applied Sciences, Rapperswil,
Centre in Salzburg”. Switzerland, with a particular in-
terest in sustainable tourism. He
is the President of the Internation-
al Commission for the Protection
of the Alps (CIPRA).

THE ALPINE CONVENTION

The Significance of the
Alpine Convention for the Bavarian
Authorities
by Karlheinz Weißgerber
Introduction in its Alpine region, Bavaria acts in terms of content, purpose and
in keeping with the spirit of the formulation are sufficiently pre-
The content of the framework con- Alpine Convention as a matter of cise and require no further imple-
vention and the protocols to the principle, with minor shortcom- menting provisions, have direct
Alpine Convention is the outcome ings at most. effect in national law. The provi-
of negotiations between the coun- sions of the protocols must there-
tries party to the Convention. Ger- The Protocols of Implementation fore be taken into account in ap-
many/Bavaria has regularly put entered into force for Germany proval procedures or environmen-
forward proposals here, based on on 18 December 2002 following tal impact assessments.
practices in place in Bavaria‘s Al- ratification. The executive and
pine region. It is therefore not the courts must on principle ap- It should be noted that some tar-
surprising that the provisions of ply the provisions of the Alpine gets / mandates are longer-term
the eight Protocols of Implemen- Convention and its Protocols as in focus; here, improvements can
tation have adequate equivalents legislation having the rank of fed- only be achieved on a progressive
in national law (federal law, and eral law. However, only those pro- basis.
the Land law of the Free State of visions of the protocols which,
Bavaria) – with minor exceptions.
This is demonstrated, for exam-
ple, by the synopses of legislation
Attlesee, one of the largest lakes in Eastern
published in tabular form in ear- Allgäu (Bavaria)
ly 2007 (see www.stmugv.bayern.
de/eu).
The Report for Germany on com-

pliance with the objectives of the
Alpine Convention, for the pe-
riod to the end of August 2005,
contains a list of the legal provi-
sions in force at federal and Land
level which incorporate the vari-
ous provisions of the framework
convention and its protocols (leg-
islation, ordinances, public no-
tices, regional development plan-
ning objectives, funding guide-
lines etc.). This Report shows that

Alpine marmots
Objectives Soil protection ˘ submission of a review on con-

˘ international cooperation on servation of nature and the
Various objectives are outlined countryside pursuant to Annex
soil monitoring, data, etc., col-
below which will be of relevance I of the Protocol (after three
laboration in the Platform on
to the activities of the authorities years) (on wild flora and fauna,
Natural Hazards
in the coming years, both at fed-
˘ mapping of at-risk areas (in- protected spaces, organisation,
eral level and in the Free State of legal bases, activities, PR) (Arti-
cluding information about frag-
Bavaria. cle 6)
ile areas, expansion of the Al-
pine Natural Hazard Informa- ˘ development of nature con-
Overarching commitments servation strategies and pro-
tion Service – IAN)
˘ Transboundary cooperation
˘ reduction in land consumption grammes for the Alpine space
with Austria (e.g. information
˘ reduction of material inputs in (after five years; already under
about planned legal or eco-
soils way, e.g. Species and Biotope
nomic measures or joint pro-
˘ avoidance of damage during Protection Programme – ABSP)
grammes for systematic mon-
ski slope construction (Article 7).
itoring) (see Article 4 of the
˘ promotion of soil protection
Convention). In this context, Mountain farming
procedures.
contacts should be fostered be- ˘ promotion of agriculture in
tween authorities on the same
Conservation of nature and the line with different manage-
level; the opportunities af-
countryside ment conditions to maintain
forded by the EuRegios could
˘ international cooperation, e.g. use (e.g. equalisation supple-
perhaps be utilised more fully ment, Cultural Landscape Pro-
on networking protected areas
here.
˘ production of a list of biotope gramme)
types which require special ˘ promotion of the marketing of
measures (in conjunction with regional produce.
Action to be taken under biotope mapping) two years
the individual specialised after entry into force) Mountain forests
protocols: ˘ identification of species which ˘ development of protected
require special protection forests
Spatial planning and sustainable ˘ location-appropriate renewal
development (after two years; contained in
Red List 2003) and development of mixed
˘ liaison with neighbouring re-
gions in Austria on the devel- ˘ identification of protected forests
species pursuant to Article 15 ˘ regulation of game stocks.
opment of regional plans and
building plans (local develop- (after two years)
ment plans and all regional
plans are now coordinated).

Frauenchiemsee, an island in Upper Bavaria,
popular with tourists
Tourism Transport
˘ development of guidelines and (primary responsibility lies with
programmes for sustainable the Federal Government)
tourism ˘ encouraging rail instead of road
˘ strengthening sustainable tour- use; logistical improvements in
ism rail freight
˘ improving quality of services, ˘ improving local public trans-
encouraging innovation, bal- port; use of low-emissions vehi-
anced regional development cles in town centres
˘ tourism impact assessments ˘ reduction of noise and emis-
˘ environmental awards for com- sions
panies (hotels/restaurants, ˘ shift towards more cost trans-
camping sites) parency (tolls for heavy goods
˘ improving public transport for vehicles are simply the first
arrivals and during tourists‘ step); promotion of “green” fu-
stay. els or biofuels
˘ close coordination of plans with
neighbour countries.

Energy Further Contact:
(primary responsibility lies with recommendation:
the Federal Government) Local and regional authorities Bavarian State Ministry of the
˘ promotion of energy-saving should support an exchange of Environment, Public Health
and rational energy use experience on successful exam- and Consumer Protection (StMUGV)
˘ expansion of renewable ener- ples of sustainable development Rosenkavalierplatz 2
gies (especially biomass use; in the Alps – as a supplement 81925 München, Germany
avoiding new construction of to the activities of Alpine cit- Tel.: +49 (0)89 92 14-00
hydropower plants) ies and local authority networks. Fax: +49 (0)89 92 14-2266
˘ more cost transparency in this The Alpine Convention should be Email: poststelle@stmugv.bayern.de
area too. viewed as providing impetus for Website: www.stmugv.bayern.de
more international cooperation
throughout the Alpine region.

Climate Protection in Bavaria
Climate Programme for gases, to adapt to the inevitable skilled crafts enterprises. In Ba-
Bavaria 2020 consequences of climate change varia, facing up to climate change
and through research to maintain is both a challenge and an oppor-
The Bavarian State Government a sound data basis for more far- tunity.
adopted a climate protection con- reaching strategic decisions.
cept as long ago as October 17,
The “Climate Programme for Ba-
2000. The aim of this concept was The State Government pursues a varia 2020” was developed jointly
to exploit the potential CO2 sav- rational climate protection poli- with the Bavarian Climate Coun-
ings to the best possible advan- cy that relies on market-oriented cil, which since April 2007 has
tage in terms of the cost/benefit incentives. Bavarian companies been advising the State Govern-
ratio and to close any gaps in re- are market leaders in the field of ment on its climate policy and
search. It was followed in 2003 by environmental technology; these contributing its scientific experi-
the updating of the Bavarian cli- investment incentives bring the ence. Out of a total of 150 meas-
mate protection concept with the companies additional growth op- ures, 14 focal points have been
“Initiative for a Climate-Friendly portunities and new jobs. The en- identified in three central fields
Bavaria”. ergetic refurbishment of buildings of action:
generates contracts for domestic
The new “Climate Programme
for Bavaria 2020” will effectively
complement the measures already
in place on national and EU lev-
el and further enhance Bavaria’s
role as a trailblazer when it comes
to climate protection. Owing to its
geographical conditions, Bavaria,
in particular, is especially affected
by climate change. In the last 100
years, the mean annual tempera-
ture increase in the Bavarian Al-
pine regions increased by 1.5 de-
grees, which is twice as high as
the global average. In the next
four years, current climate pro-
tection efforts will therefore be
intensified by another Euro 350
million with a package of meas-
ures tailored to meet the specific
conditions prevailing in Bavaria.
The aim is to reduce greenhouse

Reduction of greenhouse 28 million is therefore being pro- The Flood Control Action Pro-
gases vided for renewable energies. The gramme 2020 is being dynamical-
aim is to double their share of the ly adapted to climate change with
Euro 223 million has already
energy supply from the current an additional Euro 50 million.
been provided to reduce green-
level of 8 percent to 16 percent by It covers in particular flood con-
house gas emissions. The Climate
the year 2020. Even though Ba- trol systems, increased wide-scale
Programme 2020 is designed to
varia’s share of global greenhouse flood-water retention and keep-
close the support gaps on federal
gas emissions is altogether very ing emergency overflow facilities
German level with a catalogue
low, it intends to further devel- clear for storage capacities.
of measures tailored to Bavar-
op its role model function. By the
ian conditions. As an example,
same token, dependence on fossil Climate change also threatens Ba-
Bavaria complements the Feder-
fuels will then also be reduced. varia with dry spells and drought.
al development programmes for
That is why secure supplies of
private households with a Euro
Adaptation to climate drinking water must be increased
186 million programme of its
change on local and regional level. It is
own for the energy-efficient re-
essential to draw up low water
furbishment of state, municipal Bavaria was also quick to recog-
management plans, to secure al-
and church properties, including nise that climate change could
ternative water production facili-
schools, child day-care centres not be effectively faced solely by
ties, especially in those parts of
and (school) gymnasiums. reducing greenhouse gases. A
Franconia and the Upper Palati-
substantial part of Bavaria’s cli-
nate Forest and Bavarian Forest
When it comes to renewable en- mate protection programme
that have water shortages, and to
ergies, particularly favourable therefore focuses on developing
protect usable groundwater re-
conditions exist in Bavaria for bi- and implementing regional strat-
sources and sensitive surface wa-
omass, hydro-electric power and egies in all sectors in order to ad-
ter bodies in the long term.
geothermal energy. Another Euro just to the unavoidable effects of
climate change within the scope
of the national adaptation strat-
egy; Euro 85 million will in addi-
tion be provided for this purpose
in the next few years.

Nature conservation is also affect- climate-tolerant mixed forest by Bavaria, which can also boast a
ed. Care must be taken to stabi- 2020. A total of Euro 15 million is wide range of competences. Nev-
lise biological diversity and the earmarked for this by 2011. With ertheless, in certain areas there
ecosystems and to preserve and an additional Euro 7.5 million, is need for specific research. Ba-
renature marshy ground. An in- mountain forests and their vital sic findings gained from climate
crease in georisks must also be protective functions will be sus- research must be examined for
taken into account, especially in tainably stabilised for the substan- their impact on Bavaria and be
the Alps. The adaptation meas- tial climate changes occurring in turned into forecasts specific to
ures in these fields are financed the Alpine Region. This will be the region. Research projects
with close on Euro 12 million. accomplished through intensive planned in Bavaria are supported
care and redevelopment of forests with funding amounting to Euro
Over 80 percent of land is devot- to be protected, combined with 42 million and designed and im-
ed to agriculture and forestry, so effective regulation of hoofed plemented in close concurrence
these sectors are among those game. with EU and Federal German pro-
most affected by climate change. grammes.
As a result of increasing storms Research
and periods of drought, an an- and development Interdisciplinary research net-
nual damage potential of up to works are being established, ad-
Research and development are
Euro 850 million is predicted for dressing among other fields the
the basis for developing sound
Bavaria. Of the total of approx. impact of climate on ecosystems
strategies for adaptation, damage
260,000 ha of spruce that are and climatic adaptation strategies,
prevention and anticipatory
acutely endangered in both pri- technologies safeguarding re-
action. In the field of climate
vate and communal forests, about sources and power plants for the
research and climate impact as-
100,000 ha will be converted into 21st century.
sessment, extensive research ac-
tivities are being conducted in

An agricultural research enter-
prise should explore questions re-
lating to precision farming, ero-
sion avoidance and investigation
of genetic resources under climate
stress. In order to redevelop for-
ests, climate-adapted recommen-
dations of tree species are needed.
The increased and new incidence
of economically significant pests
(e.g. bark beetle and oak proces-
sionary moth) calls for an im- Europe’s Climate ˘ To increase the share of bio-
provement in current preventive Protection Action Plan fuels in the total fuel market to
and control strategies. 10%,
At its spring meeting in Brussels
˘ To improve energy efficiency
In particular for the Alpine re- on March 8/9, 2007, the Europe-
by 20% (referred to a develop-
gion, special strategies will have an Council adopted a package of
ment without additional meas-
to be pursued, like for instance binding measures and targets to
ures).
dealing with natural Alpine haz- be reached by 2020 in its “Action
ards. Due to the impacts to be Plan for Climate Protection and
Bavaria endorses these reduction
expected from global warming Energy Policy”:
targets. However, the special pre-
(higher mortality rate follow- ˘ To reduce greenhouse gas
requisites and framework condi-
ing heat waves in the summer, emissions by 20% (with refer-
tions prevailing in the State of
increase in allergic complaints, ence to 1990) or by 30%, if oth-
Bavaria must be taken into con-
spread of infectious diseases, higher industrial nations undertake
sideration, and in particular the
er risk of skin cancer), research to achieve comparable emis-
geographical location that makes
activities and the development of sion reductions and the eco-
Bavaria a transit country with
prevention and adaptation strat- nomically more advanced de-
a high volume of traffic passing
egies must be intensified in the veloping countries agree to
through it. Account must also be
light of the anticipated conse- make a contribution commen-
taken of per capita CO2 emissions
quences for public health. surate with their responsibili-
that even now are already rough-
ties and their respective capa-
ly one third below the German
Research & development is the key bilities,
average. They are a positive result
to a sustainable supply of energy. ˘ To increase the share of rene-
of active Bavarian climate protec-
Only in this way will the neces- wable energies in the total
tion policy.
sary technologies be available for energy mix of the EU to 20%,
more efficient use of today’s sourc-
es of energy and for opening up
new sources. In addition to the
production of fuels from renewa-
ble energies, the CO2-neutral pro-
duction of hydrogen, separation
of CO2 in the power-plant sector
and efficient solar power plants,
energy efficiency is also to be in-
creased by means of innovative
light-weight designs in motor ve-
hicles. Possible savings in the en-
ergy required by sewage plants
(electricity, heat) are to be re-
vealed in demonstration projects.
The opportunities for producing
hydrogen in large-scale sewage
treatment plants will also be ex-
amined and demonstrated in a
practice-oriented manner.

Alpine Network of Protected Areas (ALPARC)
Implementing the Protocol on “Conservation of Nature and the Countryside“ of the
Alpine Convention from the outset
The establishment of an Alpine with immediate effect, on issues

network of protected areas was relating to area management, to
proposed by France as early as share their experiences, and to de-
1994 in order to improve interna- velop and promote joint projects
tional cooperation in the field of in the protected areas.
Alpine nature conservation. The
specific implementation of Article During the following years, a
12 of the Protocol on “Conserva- number of thematic working
tion of Nature and the Country- groups were established (manage-
side” was the starting point: “The ment of fauna, flora, habitat, tour-
contracting parties take adequate ism, mountain landscape, water
measures to establish a network of resources, public relations …). In
existing national and transbound- every case, the relevance to the
ary protected areas, of biotopes Alpine Convention and its proto-
and other protected elements or cols was clear. Numerous publica-
those to be protected. They com- tions, exhibitions and other com-
mit themselves to harmonise the munication tools were produced,
objectives and applicable meas- joint projects (monitoring, return
ures in transboundary protected of wildlife, studies, INTERREG and
areas.” LIFE programmes) were imple-
mented, conferences, study visits
During the first International Con- and staff exchanges took place,
ference of Alpine Protected Areas and Alpine-wide scientific coordi-
held in Gap in 1995, the partici- nation of the protected areas was
pants – protected area managers initiated.
from all the Alpine countries –
agreed to cooperate more closely, However, as only large and eco-
logically coherent protected are-
as can safeguard the lasting and
sustainable protection of the bi-
otic and abiotic natural resources
of the Alps and guarantee their
natural processes, the Alpine Net-
work of Protected Areas was com-
missioned by the Alpine Confer-
ence in 2004 to carry out a feasi-
bility study on transboundary pro-
tected areas and ecological corri-
dors in the Alps.
Winter sport in Reit im Winkl, Chiemgau,

Upper Bavaria

This was the first practical step
towards the establishment of the
Network‘s spatial dimension. The
work provides an overview of the
existing potential afforded by pro-
tected areas and transboundary
linking corridors, including exist-
ing measures relating to species
migration and targeted enhance-
ment of the Alpine Ecological Net-
work.
The Alpine Network of Protected

Areas (ALPARC) is now the largest est for visitors and local commu-
and most comprehensive special- nities. They protect centuries-old
ised network for regional nature natural and cultural assets and
conservation within the Alpine can serve as a model of best prac-
Convention. The Alpine protect- tice in modern nature conserva-
ed areas are areas of special inter- tion.

The protected areas are also spac- particular support through the
es for communication, especially mountain partnerships involving
through their visitor centres, in- ALPARC and various parties to the
formation policy and the services Convention (Germany, Monaco,
provided for tourists and hikers. France), which are supported by
ALPARC promotes joint PR work the Alpine Convention.
by the Alpine protected areas,
especially on the theme of the With the creation of a Task Force
Alpine Convention. for the protected areas, ALPARC
has been incorporated into the
The Alpine Network has also Permanent Secretariat of the Al-
been adopted as a model within pine Convention since June 2006,
the framework of the Carpathian and will thus play an even more
Convention. The Carpathian Net- central role in implementing the
work of Protected Areas now be- Convention‘s Protocol on “Conser-
ing established builds upon the vation of Nature and the Country-
experience gained with the side”.
Alpine process and has received
No snow this winter: Gräner Ödenalp in Tyrol

(Austria) in late December 2006

In brief: Alpine Network of Protected Areas (ALPARC)
˘ Since 2006, ALPARC has been incorporated into the Permanent Secretariat
of the Alpine Convention. It has an office in France with five staff members as
well as project-related personnel.
˘ It is supported by the French Government and the Alpine regions of Provence-

Alpes-Côte-d’Azur and Rhône-Alpes and, on a project basis, by other parties
to the Alpine Convention and by the European Union.
˘ The Alpine Network currently encompasses around 800 protected areas of all
categories, including 14 national and around 70 nature and regional parks.
˘ It encompasses around 2,000 protected area managers and staff.
˘ It represents around 23% of the Alpine space and almost all Alpine flora, fau-
na and habitats.
˘ It has 15 technical and expert working groups.
˘ It has arranged more than 250 events, produced numerous publications and
run countless exhibitions since 1995.
Contact:
Alpine Network of Protected Areas (ALPARC)

Dr. Guido Plassmann
256, Rue de la République
F-73000 Chambéry, France
Tel.: +33 (0)479 26 55-00
Fax: +33 (0)479 26 55-01
Email: info@alparc.org
Website: www.alparc.org

CIPRA – Life in the Alps
Aims and activities of CIPRA
The International Commis-

sion for the Protection of the
Alps, known by its French
acronym CIPRA, which stands
for “Commission Internation-
ale pour la Protection des Al-
pes”, has been working for
more than half a century in
support of sustainable devel-
opment in the Alps. CIPRA in-
itiated the Alpine Convention
and played a key role in its
development. It searches for
ways and means to reconcile
the needs of the natural en-
vironment, the business com- fortnightly alpMedia Newsletter, With its focus on sustainable de-
munity and social issues. for example, CIPRA communicates velopment, CIPRA‘s objective is
news, publications and events to exploit the potential of the Al-
One way in which it does so from and into all the countries of pine space at many levels. In do-
is through the dissemina- the Alps. It also produces its “Al- ing so, CIPRA pursues a double
tion of information: CIPRA is pine Reports”, quarterly informa- strategy: on the one hand, politi-
an information platform in tion bulletins, dossiers and other cal development with the Alpine
five languages for people in publications to round off its infor- Convention, and on the other, a
and outside the Alps. With its mation offer. bottom-up approach with infor-
mation, projects, initiatives and
Putting this knowledge into prac- networks – so that life in the Alps
tice is another goal that CIPRA will continue to be worth living
is working to achieve in various in the future too.
projects and initiatives. For exam-
ple, CIPRA is one of the initiators
of the “Alliance in the Alps” local
Contact:
authority network, in which more
than 200 municipalities from all
CIPRA International
the countries of the Alps are now
Im Bretscha 22
working together.
FL-9494 Schaan
Fürstentum Liechtenstein
With its Climalp project, CIPRA
Tel.: +423 (0)237 403-0
is promoting the construction of
Fax: +423 (0)237 403-1
energy-efficient houses in the Al-
Email: international@cipra.org
pine space using timber from the
Website: www.cipra.org
region‘s forests. CIPRA provides
information on the project goals
in various publications and also
organises excursions and work-
shops. “Disseminating knowledge
– networking people” is the motto
of “Future in the Alps”, another of
CIPRA‘s projects.

International Scientific Committee on
Research in the Alps (ISCAR)
Mountain research across boundaries
ISCAR was founded in 1999

in order to contribute to the ˘ Organisation of ForumAlpinum (since 1994)
implementation of Articles
3 and 4 of the Alpine Conven- ˘ Development of a research programme as part of the work programme of the
tion, which deal with interna- Alpine Convention (since 2005)
tional cooperation in science
and research. The focal points ˘ Cooperation in pan-Alpine projects (on the conservation of biodiversity and
of ISCAR‘s work are inter- and ecological networks) and in European networks (on research into global
transdisciplinary research, change in mountain regions).
pan-Alpine approaches and
key issues relating to sustain-
able development in the Alps. ISCAR activities are based on the Contact:
In order to promote research ISCAR Convention, which was
and scientific cooperation, signed by national research insti- International Scientific
ISCAR, together with partner tutions (Academies of Sciences / Committee on
organisations, has developed Arts and national institutes) from Research in the Alps (ISCAR)
various core activities: Austria, France, Bavaria, Italy, Dr. Thomas Scheurer
Slovenia and Switzerland. Each of Schwarztorstraße 9
these six partners delegates two CH–3007 Bern, Switzerland
members to the Committee, tak- Tel.: +41 (0)31 318 70 18
ing account of the humanities Fax: +41 (0)31 312 16 78
and natural sciences. In 2000, IS- Email: iscar@scnat.ch
CAR was formally recognised as Website:
an official observer of the Alpine www.iscar-alpineresearch.org
Convention and in this role rep-
resents research or contributes its
specialist scientific expertise in
the official bodies of the Alpine
ISCAR
Convention. International Scientific Committee
on Research in the Alps
View from Susten Pass (Switzerland)

over the Steingletscher glacier with
glacial lake

“Alliance in the Alps“ local authority network
Context The steadily growing demands be-

ing made on the Alpine region
The Alps are a living space and by human communities and the
an economic, cultural and rec- major changes which have taken
reational area of eminent impor- place here over the last 100 years
tance at the heart of the Europe- mean that more intensive efforts
an continent, shared by numer- are needed to achieve sustain-
ous peoples and countries with able development so that a high
specific and diverse natural envi- quality of life can be maintained
ronments, cultures and history. throughout the Alpine region. Sus-
This living space is of great signif- tainable development must take
icance for non-Alpine regions as place together with stakeholders
well – notably as a provider of key and requires adaptation to the
transport routes, as an indicator specific needs of each region and
of climatic changes, and through municipality.
its numerous models of coopera-
tion between cultures, political The “Alliance in the Alps” net-
systems and organisations. work is an association of local au-
thorities from seven Alpine states.
At the same time, there are major These local authorities are pio-
differences in the individual legal neers in the efforts to promote the
systems, natural landscape condi- sustainable development of their
tions, settlement, agriculture and municipalities and regions.
forestry, economic status and de-
velopment, transport use, and the
type and intensity of tourism.
Membership development of "Alliance in the Alps"

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Switzerland Italy Germany Austria

Slovenia Liechtenstein France

Alphorn players in Bad Hindelang, Bavaria
Basis
The basis of the network is the Al-
pine Convention. The Convention
is viewed as the guiding principle
for sustainable development in
the Alpine region and its imple-
mentation should be filled with
life wherever individuals are able
to shape their future, i.e. in the
community.
The member municipalities work

members to learn from each oth- the four main languages of the
to achieve a balance of ecologi-
er. A key element in this context Alps: German, French, Italian
cal, social and economic objec-
is the initiation of joint projects and Slovene. Regional associa-
tives, guided by the following
for all member municipalities in tions have been established in
principles:
the network. Switzerland and Austria.
Goals
Organisation The 250 or so member munici-
The main objective is the imple- palities are advised by mentors
The “Alliance in the Alps“ network
mentation of the protocols of the in their mother tongue and, via
is a registered association and
Alpine Convention at local level. these mentors, can introduce
was founded in Bovec, Slovenia,
This requires the involvement of topics into the network‘s activi-
in October 1997. Its membership
citizens in Alpine-specific Local ties and receive support for the
comprises municipalities from sev-
Agenda 21 processes as a means implementation of their own
en of the eight Alpine states. The
of working together to develop projects and events. These in
Alliance‘s Executive Board con-
the local habitat. Active exchange turn also ensure effective net-
sists of representatives of one mu-
between stakeholders in the mu- working and individual infor-
nicipality from each of the seven
nicipalities is the driving force mation exchange through their
member states. All the network‘s
behind the network, enabling own contacts.
publications and events are in
The value-added and benefits

are apparent, above all, in the
˘ Safeguarding holistic policies for the conservation and protection of the Alps
thematic workshops. The ex-
change of experience and in-
˘ Safeguarding sparing and sustainable use of resources, taking account of
formation, problems and solu-
the precautionary principle, the “polluter pays“ principle, and the principle
tions becomes far more diverse
of cooperation. Strengthening transboundary cooperation in and for the
and innovative as a result.
Alpine region.

A lack of snow in December 2006 in the
Füssener Jöchle ski resort in Tyrol (Austria)
Major projects The main objectives of the EU DYNALP2

Community Initiative INTERREG DYNALP2 is an “Alliance in the
INTERREG III B Project: III B Alpine Space Programme are Alps” project. With DYNALP2, the
DYNALP to establish the Alpine space as “Alliance in the Alps” network is
In 2003 the “Alliance in the
a powerful area in the European continuing the work on sustaina-
Alps” local authority network,
network of development areas, ble development and implementa-
together with the municipality
and to initialise and support sus- tion of the Alpine Convention ini-
of Mäder in Austria as the lead
tainable development on a trans- tiated by the INTERREG DYNALP
partner and 53 other partners
boundary basis – in other words, Project. DYNALP2 implements the
(municipalities and regions)
it pursues the same objectives as findings from CIPRA‘s Future in
from Switzerland (17), Liechten-
Alliance in the Alps. the Alps project at the commu-
stein (1), Germany (8), Italy (11),
nity level and promotes lively ex-
Slovenia (2) and Austria (15),
The DYNALP partners implement change between the municipali-
launched the DYNALP project
projects within the framework of ties. The results and findings are
under the EU Community Ini-
the above-mentioned goals and therefore useful to many people.
tiative INTERREG III B Alpine
exchange experiences across lin- DYNALP2 is scheduled to run for
Space Programme with a total
guistic and cultural boundaries. a term of just over three years,
cost framework of € 2,100,000.
The projects address the imple- from April 2006 to June 2009.
mentation of one or several of the The Project has a total funding
following four protocols of the Al- volume of € 1,775,000. The MAVA
pine Convention: Tourism, Conser- Foundation for Nature Conserva-
vation of Nature and the Country- tion, Switzerland, is covering
side, Mountain Farming, and € 1,275,000 of that amount.
Spatial Planning and Sustainable
Development.

The core and single largest budg- Contact:
et item of DYNALP2 are projects in
communities which make a real “Alliance in the Alps“ local authority network
contribution towards implement- Bgm. Rainer Siegele,
ing sustainable development and President of the Executive Board, “Alliance in the Alps“
the Alpine Convention. Projects 1. Vorsitzender Gemeindeamt Mäder
in the amount of € 20,000 or € Alte Schulstraße 7
40,000 receive up to 50% funding. A-6841 Mäder, Austria
Tel.: +43 (0)5523 528 60-10
DYNALP2 focusses on one or more Fax: +43 (0)5523 528 60-20
of the following topic areas: Re- Email: e.klien@maeder.at
gional Value Added, Governance
Capacity, Protected Areas, Mobil- Gabriele Greussing
ity, New Forms of Decision-Mak- International Mentor Coordination
ing, and Policies and Instruments. Contact for Austria
Kutzenau 14
A-6841 Mäder, Austria
Tel.: +43 (0)5523 635 75
Fax: +43 (0)5523 635 75-4
Email: gmg@greussing.at
Website: www.alpenallianz.org
The cows are brought down from the alm, Allgäu, Bavaria

LINKS AND LITERATURE
Climate change in www.ipcc.ch

Climate Change in
Intergovernmental Panel on
general Climate Change
the Alpine Region
IPCC (Hrsg.) (2007) Climate Beniston, M. (2005) Mountain Cli-
www.anpassung.net
Change 2007: Climate Change Im- mates and Climatic Change: An
KomPass (Competence Centre
pacts, Adaption and Vulnerability. Overview of Processes Focusing
on Climate Change Impacts
on the European Alps, Pure Ap-
and Adaptation) at the Federal
IPCC (Hrsg.) (2007) Climate plied Geophysics, 162, S. 1587–1606,
Environment Agency
Change 2007: The Physical Birkhäuser Verlag, Basel.
Science Basis.
www.bmu.de/english/
Cebon, P. et al. (Hrsg.) (1998) View
climate-change
Rahmsdorf, S. und Schellnhuber, from the Alps: Regional Perspec-
Federal Environment Ministry:
HJ. (2006) Der Klimawandel, Ver- tives on Climate Change, MIT
information on climate pro-
lag C.H. Beck, München. Press, Cambridge.
tection
Umweltbundesamt (2005), Klima- Haubner, E. (2002) Klimawandel

www.umweltbundesamt.de/
wandel in Deutschland: Vulnera- und Alpen: Ein Hintergrund-
klimaschutz-e
bilität und Anpassungsstrategien bericht, CIPRA International,
Federal Environment Agency: in-
klimasensitiver Systeme, For- www.alpmedia.net/pdf/Klimawan-
formation on climate protection
schungsbericht 201 41 253. del_Alpen_D.pdf

Huber, U. et al. (Hrsg.) (2005) www.climchalp.org Österreicherischer Alpenverein
Global Change and Mountain Re- ClimChAlp (Climate Change, (2004) Fachbeiträge des Öster-
gions: An Overview of Current Impacts and Adaptation Strategies reichischen Alpenvereins, Reihe
Knowledge, Springer Verlag, Dor- in the Alpine Space) Alpine Raumordnung Nr. 24: Die
drecht. Alpenkonvention – Markierungen
www.alpinespace.org für ihre Umsetzung.
Österreicherischer Alpenverein EU Community Initiative Alpine
(2005) Fachbeiträge des Öster- Space Programme www.alpenkonvention.org
reichischen Alpenvereins, Reihe Alpine Convention
Alpine Raumordnung Nr. 27: Be-
drohte Alpengletscher. Alpine Convention www.cipra.org
Theurillat, J-P. und Guisan, A.

and its International Commission for the
Protection of the Alps (Commis-
(2001) Potential Impact of Climate implementation sion Internationale pour la Protec-
Change on Vegetation in the tion des Alpes – CIPRA)
European Alps: A Review, Climatic Ständiges Sekretariat der Alpen-
Change, 50, S. 77–109. konvention (2003) Alpenkonven-
www.alpenallianz.org
tion: Nachschlagewerk, Alpen-
“Alliance in the Alps” local
www.stmugv.bayern.de/ signale 1, Ständiges Sekretariat
authority network
umwelt/klimaschutz/ der Alpenkonvention, Innsbruck.
Bavarian State Ministry of the www.planat.ch
Environment, Public Health and Ständiges Sekretariat der Alpen-
National Platform for Natural
Consumer Protection (StMUGV) konvention (2004) Alpenkonven-
Hazards, Switzerland (including
tion konkret: Ziele und Umset-
PLANALP)
www.kliwa.de zung, Alpensignale 2, Ständiges
“Climate change and consequenc- Sekretariat der Alpenkonvention,
www.alparc.org
es for water management” Innsbruck.
Alpine Network of Protected
(KLIWA): cooperation project Areas
involving Bavaria, Baden-Würt-
temberg and the German Meteor-
ological Service

PUBLICATION ORDER:
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)
Postfach 30 03 61
53183 Bonn
Germany
Tel.: +49 228 99 305-33 55
Fax: +49 228 99 305-33 56
Email: bmu@broschuerenversand.de
Website: www.bmu.de/english
The publication is part of the public relations work of the Federal Ministry for the
Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. It is distributed free of
charge and is not intended for sale. Printing on 100% recycled paper.

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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ALPS

Facts - Impacts - Adaptation

Design: design idee, büro für gestaltung, Erfurt

Date: December 2007

2>> >>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < <

04 Foreword by Michael Müller and Dr. Otmar Bernhard 4

Foreword by Dr. Marco Onida 6

08 I. THE SCIENTIFIC BASES

30 II. THE IMPACTS

74 III. THE ALPINE CONVENTION

94 Links and Literature 94

>>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < < 3>>

by Michael Müller and Dr. Otmar Bernhard

landscape within such a relatively

According to the latest model cal-

Everyone is talking about climate ˘ an increase in the probability

4>> >>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < <

Michael Müller Dr. Otmar Bernhard

Parliamentary State Secretary, Bavarian State Minister,

>>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < < 5>>

by Dr. Marco Onida

6>> >>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < <

>>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < < 7>>

˘ This increase is human-induced. In the case of CO2, it is mainly caused by the

˘ Most of this warming is caused by the increased atmospheric concentration

˘ It therefore follows that continued emission of greenhouse gases on the

˘ The scenarios modelled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

˘ According to current research, Europe‘s future climate will show a signiﬁ-

˘ In Germany, a trend towards greater warming in winter than in summer can

10>> >>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < <

>>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < < 11>>

Badersee lake near Grainau, Upper Bavaria

12>> >>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < <

Morteratsch Glacier in Switzerland,

There is a consensus on ﬁndings which reveal the following picture:

˘ Greater variability of both temperature and precipitation, with an increased

>>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < < 13>>

14>> >>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < <

Colours: Trend magnitude in % change per 100 years

Source: Schaer, C. and Frei, C. (2005)

>>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < < 15>>

Changes in seasonal precipitation in the Alps

Source: Beniston, M. (2006)

agement. The IPCC, for example, +90% -5% -45% -20%

Source: Beniston, M. (2006)

16>> >>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < <

Oberstdorf in Allgäu, Bavaria, in January 2007:

>>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < < 17>>

˘ A warming scenario of 4° C as projected for the period 1971–2100 compared with

18>> >>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < <

Dried-out bed of the Sylvenstein Reservoir

>>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < < 19>>

Storm over Spitzingsee, Bavaria

20>> >>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < <

>>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < < 21>>

If predictions are also to be made

22>> >>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < <

The results in detail: more green-

>>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < < 23>>

Alps: Climate change per year

24>> >>C L I M AT E C H A NG E I N T H E A L P S < <

Days with snow

140 Mittenwald runmean