Global Warming

Will Human-Induced Climate

Change Destroy the World?

By Rich Deem
www.GodAndScience.org
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 Introduction
• Is the world getting warmer?
• If so, are the actions of mankind to
blame for earth’s temperature
increases?
• What can/should be done about these
issues?
• Are the potential resolutions worth the
cost to implement them?
 History of Earth’s Climate
• Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago
• Originally very hot
• Sun’s energy output only 70% of
present
• Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years
ago (zircon dating)
• Much of earth’s early history erased
during late heavy bombardment (~3.9
billion years ago)
 History of Earth’s Climate
• Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago
• Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion
years ago
 Produced oxygen and removed carbon
dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)
 Earth went through periods of cooling
(“Snowball Earth”) and warming
• Earth began cycles of glacial and
interglacial periods ~3 million years
ago
 Earth’s Temperature
Solar
Sun
Energy

Solar

Energy
 Earth’s Temperature

Sun

Solar Radiative
Cooling
Energy
 Earth’s Temperature

Sun
Solar
Radiative
Cooling
Energy
 Earth’s Temperature

Sun

Solar
Radiative
Energy Cooling
Sun Greenhouse Effect
Earth’s Atmospheric Gases
Nitrogen (N2)
Non-
Oxygen (O2) Greenhouse
>99%
Gases
Argon (Ar)

Water (H2O)

Greenhouse
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) <1%
Gases
Methane (CH4)
Sun Runaway Greenhouse Effect

• 97% carbon dioxide

• 3% nitrogen
• Water & sulfuric
acid clouds
• Temperature: Venus
860°F
Carbon Dioxide
 Carbon Dioxide Levels
420 Muana Loa Readings
CO2 Levels Since 1958

CO2 (ppm)
370 370
350
CO2 (ppm)

330
320 310
40 30 20 10 0

270

220
Dome Concordia Vostok Ice Core
170 600000 400000 200000 0
Time (YBP)
 Worldwide Carbon Emissions
8
Carbon (109 metric tons)

Total
7 Liquid fuel
6 Solid fuel
Gas fuel
5
4
3
2
1
0
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
 Annual Carbon Emissions
8
Carbon (109 metric tons)

Annual carbon emissions

Atmospheric CO2
6 Atmospheric CO2 average

0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Future Carbon Dioxide Levels
• Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in
China and developing countries
• Likely to double within 150 years:
 Increased coal usage
 Increased natural gas usage
 Decreased petroleum usage (increased
cost and decreasing supply)
 Kyoto Protocol
• Adopted in 1997
• Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990
levels for 2008-2012
• Symbolic only, since cuts will not
significantly impact global warming
Past Temperatures
 Recorded Worldwide Flat
Temperatures
0.8
∆ Mean Temperature (°C)

0.6

0.4 Decreasing
Flat
0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
 Historic Los Angeles
Temperatures
Annual Temperatures Summer Temperatures Winter Temperatures
22 25 17

21 24 16

20 23 15
Temperature (°C)

19 22 14

18 21 13

17 20 12

16 19 11

15 18 10
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year Year Year
 2009 Temperature Changes
Compared to 1951-1980

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1

Past Temperatures Measurement
• Proxy – a method that approximates a
particular measurement (e.g.,
temperature)
 Tree rings
 Ice cores
 Pollen records
 Plant macrofossils
 Sr/Ca isotope data
 Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite
(stalactites and stalagmites)
Temperature History of the Earth
• Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler
• Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C
warmer than today
• Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years
• Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North
Atlantic
• Mostly due to changes in thermohaline
circulation →
• Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline
circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a
large lake in Canada flooded the North
Atlantic
Main Ocean Currents

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2

Temperature History of the Earth
• For the past 3 million years, the earth
has been experiencing ~100,000 year
long cycles of glaciation followed by
~10,000 year long interglacial periods
• These climate periods are largely the
result of cycles in the earth’s orbit –
precession, obliquity, and eccentricity
Orbital Parameters: Precession

Apehelion Perihelion
Orbital Parameters: Obliquity
24.5°
22.5°
 Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity
Maximum: 0.061

Minimum: 0.005

Apehelion
Apehelion Perihelion

To Scale!
Not to scale!
Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate

Precession
(22 ky)

Obliquity
(41 ky)
Eccentricity
(100 ky)

Temperature

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Age (kya)
Temperature History of the Earth
• For the past 3 million years, the earth
has been experiencing ~100,000 year
long cycles of glaciation followed by
~10,000 year long interglacial periods
• Last ice age began to thaw 15,000
years ago, but was interrupted by the
“Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years
ago
 Younger Dryas Event
-25 Younger 0.35

Snow Accumulation (m/yr)

Dryas
-30 0.30
Temperature (°C)

Medieval Warm
-35 0.25

-40 Ice Age Little Ice Age 0.20

-45 0.15

-50 0.10

-55 0.05
20 15 10 5 0
Age (kya)
 Younger Dryas Event
-8.0 -34
Younger
-7.5 Dryas -35
-36

O (Greenland)
-7.0
-37
O (China)

-6.5 -38
-6.0 -39
-5.5 -40
18

-41

18
δ

-5.0
-42

δ
-4.5 -43
-4.0 -44
16 15 14 13 12 11 10
Age (kya)
Temperature History of the Earth

Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya)

• Temperatures: 2°C higher than today.
 20°C higher at high latitudes
 1°C higher at the Equator
• Sea levels were 100 ft higher
• Causes
 CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher
 Increased thermohaline circulation
Temperature History of the Earth

Eocene (41 million years ago)

• Opening of the Drake Passage
(between South America and
Antarctica).
• Increased ocean current exchange
 Strong global cooling
 First permanent glaciation of Antarctica
~34 million years ago
Temperature History of the Earth

Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya)

• Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C
• Causes
 Increased volcanism
 Rapid release of methane from the oceans
Temperature History of the Earth

Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya)

• Much warmer
• Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland
• Causes
 Different ocean currents (continental
arrangement)
 higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times
higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)
 A Compilation of Phanerozoic
Atmospheric CO2 Records
6000

Concentration (ppmV) (Paleolatitude)

Atmospheric CO2Continental Glaciation
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
30

60

S D Carb P Tr J K Pg Ng
90
Paleozoic Mesozoic Cenozoic
400 300 200 100 0
Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580
Recent Temperature
Changes
 “Hockey Stick” Controversy
0.6
Temperature Change (°C)

Direct temperature measurements

0.4 Mann et al. 1999
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
 The Problem with Tree Rings
0.3 Jones et al. 1998
Temperature Change (°C)

0.2 Briffa et al. 1999

Mann et al. 1999
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
What Influences Tree Rings?
• Temperature
• Rainfall
• Carbon dioxide concentration
 Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
2
Temperature Change (°C)

Mann et al. 1999

Esper et al. 2002
1

-1

-2
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
 Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
0.4
Medieval Warm Period
Temperature Change (°C)

0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Mann et al. 1999
-0.8 Esper et al. 2002
-1.0 Moberg et al. 2005
Mann et al. 2008
-1.2
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000
Year
 U.S. National Academy of
Sciences: June 2006
0.6
Temperature Change (°C)

“2:1 chance of being right” “high level of confidence”

0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year
 Atmospheric Temperatures
Troposphere Stratosphere
0.8 1.5
Temperature Cgange (°C)

0.6
1.0
0.4
0.2 0.5

0.0 0.0
-0.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.6 -1.0
1980 1990 2000 1980 1990 2000
Year Year
 CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature
370

SST (°C) Tropical Pacific

CO2 (ppm) Antarctica

320 31
30
270 29
28
220 27
26
170
600000 400000 200000 025
Time (YBP)
Consequences of
Global Warming
 Global Warming Primarily Impacts
the Northern Hemisphere
Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
1.0
Temperature Change (°C)

Northern Hemisphere Land

0.8 Southern Hemisphere Ocean
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1920 1960 2000 1920 1960 2000
Year Year
 2009 Temperature Changes
Compared to 1951-1980

-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1

 Ice Sheets Melting?
• GRACE (gravity measured by satellite)
found melting of Antarctica equivalent
to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2
in/century)
• Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar
altimetry)
 confirmed Antarctica melting
 Greenland ice melting on
exterior, accumulating inland
(higher precipitation)
Melting Glaciers – Mt. Kilimanjaro
Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass
1000
800
600
Ice Mass (km3)

400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
2003 2004 2005
Year
 Rise in Sea Levels?
• Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4
in/century)
• Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006
mm/yr2
• If acceleration continues, could result
in 12 in/century sea level rise
• Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more
rise are unrealistic
 Changing Sea Levels
20

Global Temperature Change

Relative Sea Level (cm)

10

-10 Amsterdam, Netherlands

Brest, France
Swinoujscie, Poland
-20
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5
 Sea Levels for 450,000 Years
20 31

SST (°C) Tropical Pacific

0 30
Sea Level (m)

-20
29
-40
28
-60
-80 27
-100 26
-120 25
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Time (KYBP)
 Increase in Hurricanes?
15
• Two studies
Data Unreliable
SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2)

showed the total number

of hurricanes has not changed
• However, the intensity of hurricanes
10
has increased (more category 4 and 5
hurricanes and cyclones)
• 5Probably due to higher sea surface
temperatures (more Scaled August-October
energy)
Sea-Surface Temperature
• Difficult to know if this trend
Adjusted will Storm
Atlantic
Power Dissipation Index
0continue
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
 How Much Temperature
Increase?
• Some models propose up to 9°C
increase this century
• Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C
and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C
• Another study puts the minimum at
2.5°C
 Wildlife Effects
• Polar Bears
 Require pack ice to live
 Might eventually go extinct in the wild
• Sea turtles
 Breed on the same islands as
their birth
 Could go extinct on some islands
as beaches are flooded
• Other species may go extinct as rainfall
patterns change throughout the world
 Effect on Humans
• Fewer deaths from cold, more from
heat
• Decreased thermohaline circulation
 Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic
• CO2 fertilization effect
• Precipitation changes
 Droughts and famine (some areas)
 Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union
Potential Worldwide Precipitation
Changes

-50 -20 -10 -5 5 10 20 50

 Drought in Africa
Lake Faguibine Lake Chad
 Cost to Stabilize CO2
Concentrations
1800
Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)

1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
450 550 650 750
Carbon Dioxide (ppm)
Possible Solutions to
Global Warming
Mitigation of Global Warming
• Conservation
 Reduce energy needs
 Recycling
• Alternate energy sources
 Nuclear
 Wind
 Geothermal
 Hydroelectric
 Solar
 Fusion?
 Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations
1. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs
2. CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery
3. Deep saline formations – (a) offshore (b) onshore
4. CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery
1 4
3
3 b
2
a

Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7

Global Warming Myths
 Global Warming Has Stopped?
0.8 1366.8
∆ Mean Temperature (°C)

1366.6

Solar Irradiance (W/m2)

0.6
1366.4

0.4 1366.2
1366.0
0.2 1365.8
1365.6
0.0
1365.4
-0.2 1365.2
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
 Volcanoes Put Out More CO2
Than Fossil Fuel Burning
Carbon (109 metric tons)

10

0
Volcanoes Fossil Fuel
 Global Warming is Caused by
Sunspots
0.8 250
∆ Mean Temperature (°C)

0.6
200
0.4

Sunspots
0.2 150

0.0 100
-0.2
50
-0.4
-0.6 0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
 Hadley Temperatures Vs.
Sunspots
1.5 250
∆ Mean Temperature (°C)

1.0 200
0.0

Sunspots
150
-0.5
100
-1.0

-1.5 50

-2.0 0
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
 Global Warming is Caused by
GCR
1.0 4600
∆ Mean Temperature (°C)

0.8 4400

Gamma Cosmic Rays

4200
0.6
4000
0.4
3800
0.2
3600
0.0 3400
-0.2 3200
-0.4 3000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
 CO
CO 2 Vs.
2 Vs. Sea Level
Temperature
40
6 320

20
4 300
20
280
Sea Level

-20
0
Temperature

CO2 (ppmv)
260
-40
-2
Relative

240
-60
-4
220
-80
-6

-100
-8 200

-120
-10 180
500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0
Time (ybp)
Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.
 Global Warming is Due to Urban
Heat Islands

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1

Mt. Kilimanjaro’ Glaciers are Melting
Because of Global Warming
 Global Warming Primarily Impacts
the Northern Hemisphere
Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
1.0
Temperature Change (°C)

Northern Hemisphere Land

0.8 Southern Hemisphere Ocean
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1920 1960 2000 1920 1960 2000
Year Year
 Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft?
• Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4
in/century)
• Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2
• If acceleration continues, could result in 12
in/century sea level rise
• Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are
unrealistic
• Recently, the California State Lands
Commission said that sea levels could rise
55 inches this century, inundating ports
 Changing Sea Levels
20

Global Temperature Change

Relative Sea Level (cm)

10

-10 Amsterdam, Netherlands

Brest, France
Swinoujscie, Poland
-20
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5
 How Much Temperature
Increase?
• Global warming alarmists propose up
to 9°C increase this century
• Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C
and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C
• Another study puts the minimum at
2.5°C
 Predictions Vs. Reality
1.5 Annual Mean Global Temperature Change

Exponential Increase in carbon emissions

1.0
∆ T (°C)

Moderate reduction in carbon emissions

0.5
Drastic reduction in carbon emissions

Observed temps through 1988

0 OBSERVED
SCENARIO A
SCENARIO B
SCENARIO C
-0.4
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019
Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241. Date
 Temperature Extrapolation
2.5

2.0

1.5
∆ T (°C)

1.0

0.5

-0.4
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Date
 Conclusions
• Global warming is happening
• Most warming is probably the result of
human activities
• There will be positive and negative
(mostly) repercussions from global
warming
• The costs to mitigate global warming
will be high – better spent elsewhere?