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Political Report June 2010: AEI's Monthly Poll Compilation

Political Report June 2010: AEI's Monthly Poll Compilation

Ratings: (0)|Views: 8|Likes:
Highlights of the June 2010 edition of Political Report include:

* Congress's record and its current low marks
* Republicans ahead on voter enthusiasm
* Record lows want to reelect their own member
* How Obama is affecting election attitudes now
* How incumbents have fared in the primaries thus far
* The 2010 midterm in a historical context
* Approval ratings for Europe's leaders
* The latest on health care
* Gays in the military
* The oil spill, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Eliot Spitzer, and more!
Highlights of the June 2010 edition of Political Report include:

* Congress's record and its current low marks
* Republicans ahead on voter enthusiasm
* Record lows want to reelect their own member
* How Obama is affecting election attitudes now
* How incumbents have fared in the primaries thus far
* The 2010 midterm in a historical context
* Approval ratings for Europe's leaders
* The latest on health care
* Gays in the military
* The oil spill, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Eliot Spitzer, and more!

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Categories:Types, Research
Published by: American Enterprise Institute on Mar 18, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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Volume 6, Issue 5 • June 2010
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800www.aei.org
ELECTION PREVIEW
Setting the Stage
Opinions about Congress’s performance have been low all year. In Gallup’s polling, approval of the way Congress is han-dling its job dipped to 16 percent in March. It is 21 percent now. In Pew’s April poll, 25 percent had a favorable opinionof Congress, the lowest favorable rating in the quarter century of Pew polls. Congress’s disapproval rating in the May CBS poll was the highest it had been since CBS first asked the question in 1978. Only 15 percent approved. Both Pew andCBS reported in recent polls that people’s views of their own member, usually more positive than those of the institutionas a whole, were the lowest ever. In the early June ABC/
Washington Post 
poll, 29 percent said they were inclined to re-electtheir representative, the lowest response in the poll since 1989. Approval of both Democrats and Republicans in the body is low, and a strong plurality say the country would be the same no matter which party controlled Congress.
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of May 2010.
Q: Do you . . . ?
May Mar. Feb. Jan.
Approve of the jobRepublicans in Congressare doing 26% 34% 28% 32%Approve of the jobDemocrats in Congressare doing 34% 36% 28% 32%
Note: The March survey was conducted March 22–23, 2010, imme-diately after passage of the health care bill.Source: Quinnipiac, latest that of May 2010.
Q: Do you think . . . ?
The country would bebetter off if the Republicanscontrolled Congress 28%If the Democrats did 27It would be the sameregardless of which partycontrolled Congress 44
Note: In November 2006, those responses were 20, 39, and37 percent, respectively.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, May 2010.
217201020304050607080901974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010ApproveDisapprove
The way Congress in handling its job
 
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800www.aei.org
2
Karlyn Bowman
, Senior Fellow;
John Fortier
, ResearchFellow;
Norman Ornstein
, Resident Scholar;
Michael Barone
, Resident Fellow.Research Assistants:
Jennifer Marsico
, Editor;
Andrew Rugg 
, Editor.Intern:
Lauren Hitt
.
AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS
Republicans Still Winning the Enthusiasm Contest
In virtually every recent poll, Republicans have been more interested in, and express more enthusiasm for, voting this fallthan Democrats. In some recent polls, the generic ballot question remains even, but as Gallup notes, “Because Republicansusually have an advantage in voter turnout over Democrats on Election Day [Gallup’s early June poll has the race deadeven at 46%], a close division on the generic ballot among all registered voters would generally predict a greater ultimatevote share for Republicans than for Democrats. That has been the case in past years when Republicans had strong show-ings on Election Day, such as in the 1994 and 2002 midterm elections. In years when Democrats fared better in midtermelections, such as in 1982 and 2006,” Gallup continues, “[the Democrats] enjoyed large leads on the generic ballot amongall registered voters.”
Q: How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year . . . ?
Extremely enthusiastic about voting for Congress this yearRepublicans Democrats
25% May 2010 10%32 March 1725 January 13
Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of May 2010.
Q:Would you say you are . . . ?
Very enthusiastic aboutvoting in this year’sCongressional elections
Republicans 46%Democrats 24Independents 24
Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: The Gallup Organization, May–June 2010.
Q: Right now, how interested are you in the November elections?
Extremely interestedin the November election
Republicans 35%Democrats 23Independents 25
Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, June 2010.
Q: Does the way things are going in the nation today make you . . . ?
More likely to votein the elections in November
Republicans 89%Democrats 81Independents 77
Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: Quinnipiac, May 2010.
Q: Please tell me how interested you are in November’selections . . .
Highly interested*
Republicans 65%Democrats 47Independents 46
Note: Sample is registered voters. *Respondents were asked to ratetheir interest on a scale of 1 through 10, with 10 representing thehighest interest. Highly interested represents a ranking of 10 or 9.Source: NBC/ 
Wall Street Journal 
, May 2010.
 
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800www.aei.org
3
Reelection Attitudes
In a recent Pew poll, 43 percent of those surveyed say they would like to see their member of Congress reelected in thefall. This is the lowest response on this question since Pew began asking it sixteen years ago. President Obama is clearly alightning rod for Republicans. Sixty-four percent of those who prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans say they do sobecause they oppose Barack Obama and Democratic candidates. Thirty-one percent say it is because they support thepolicies of the Republican Party and its candidates.
Q: Would you like to see your representative in Congress be re-elected in the next congressional election, or not?Q: Regardless of how you feel about your own representative, would you like to see most members of Congress re-elected in the next congressional election, or not?
Would like to see your representative reelected Would like to see most members reelectedResponses ofResponses ofAll Rep Dem Ind All Rep Dem IndMidterms2010
Mar. 43% 41% 54% 36% 27% 18% 45% 17%Feb. 49 45 60 43 32 22 48 24
2006
Nov. 55 69 52 45 37 60 26 27June 51 63 49 45 29 43 22 24Feb. 59 70 56 51 36 51 29 30
2002
Oct.* 58 62 59 52 39 46 39 35Jun. 58 65 59 49 45 53 46 36
1998
Oct.** 64 69 68 56 41 52 39 34Mar. 63 67 69 55 45 55 44 39
1994
Nov. 58 55 68 52 31 18 49 25Oct.* 49 49 50 47 28 23 45 18
Note: Sample is registered voters. *Question asked in early October. **Question asked in late October.Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of March 2010.
President Obama as a Lightning Rod for Republicans
Q: What is your preference for the outcome of this year’s congressional elections . . . ?Q: Is your preference for a _____ more because . . . ?
Prefer a Congress controlled Support the policies of the Republican Partyby Republicans more because I and its candidates 31%44% Oppose Barack Obama and Democratic candidates 64Prefer a Congress controlled Support the policies of Barack Obamaby Democrats more because I and its candidates 49%44% Oppose Republican Party and its candidates 48
Note: Sample is registered voters. In October 1994, 43 percent of registered voters said they preferred a Congress controlled by Republicans and44 percent one controlled by Democrats. Of the Republicans, 48 percent stated their preference was because they supported the RepublicanParty and candidates while 34 percent stated their support was because they opposed the policies of Bill Clinton and Democratic candidates.Source: NBC/ 
Wall Street Journal 
, May 2010.
(continued on the next page)

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