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AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS
Republicans Still Winning the Enthusiasm Contest
In virtually every recent poll, Republicans have been more interested in, and express more enthusiasm for, voting this fallthan Democrats. In some recent polls, the generic ballot question remains even, but as Gallup notes, “Because Republicansusually have an advantage in voter turnout over Democrats on Election Day [Gallup’s early June poll has the race deadeven at 46%], a close division on the generic ballot among all registered voters would generally predict a greater ultimatevote share for Republicans than for Democrats. That has been the case in past years when Republicans had strong show-ings on Election Day, such as in the 1994 and 2002 midterm elections. In years when Democrats fared better in midtermelections, such as in 1982 and 2006,” Gallup continues, “[the Democrats] enjoyed large leads on the generic ballot amongall registered voters.”
Q: How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year . . . ?
Extremely enthusiastic about voting for Congress this yearRepublicans Democrats
25% May 2010 10%32 March 1725 January 13
Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of May 2010.
Q:Would you say you are . . . ?
Very enthusiastic aboutvoting in this year’sCongressional elections
Republicans 46%Democrats 24Independents 24
Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: The Gallup Organization, May–June 2010.
Q: Right now, how interested are you in the November elections?
Extremely interestedin the November election
Republicans 35%Democrats 23Independents 25
Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, June 2010.
Q: Does the way things are going in the nation today make you . . . ?
More likely to votein the elections in November
Republicans 89%Democrats 81Independents 77
Note: Sample is registered voters.Source: Quinnipiac, May 2010.
Q: Please tell me how interested you are in November’selections . . .
Republicans 65%Democrats 47Independents 46
Note: Sample is registered voters. *Respondents were asked to ratetheir interest on a scale of 1 through 10, with 10 representing thehighest interest. Highly interested represents a ranking of 10 or 9.Source: NBC/
Wall Street Journal
, May 2010.