Volume 6, Issue 5 • June 2010

ELECTION PREVIEW

Setting the Stage

Opinions about Congress’s performance have been low all year. In Gallup’s polling, approval of the way Congress is han-
dling its job dipped to 16 percent in March. It is 21 percent now. In Pew’s April poll, 25 percent had a favorable opinion
of Congress, the lowest favorable rating in the quarter century of Pew polls. Congress’s disapproval rating in the May
CBS poll was the highest it had been since CBS first asked the question in 1978. Only 15 percent approved. Both Pew and
CBS reported in recent polls that people’s views of their own member, usually more positive than those of the institution
as a whole, were the lowest ever. In the early June ABC/Washington Post poll, 29 percent said they were inclined to re-elect
their representative, the lowest response in the poll since 1989. Approval of both Democrats and Republicans in the body
is low, and a strong plurality say the country would be the same no matter which party controlled Congress.
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

90 The way Congress in handling its job

80
70 Disapprove 72
60
50
40
30 21
20
10 Approve

0
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of May 2010.

Q: Do you . . . ? Q: Do you think . . . ?

May Mar. Feb. Jan. The country would be
better off if the Republicans
Approve of the job
controlled Congress 28%
Republicans in Congress
If the Democrats did 27
are doing 26% 34% 28% 32%
It would be the same
regardless of which party
Approve of the job
controlled Congress 44
Democrats in Congress
are doing 34% 36% 28% 32% Note: In November 2006, those responses were 20, 39, and
37 percent, respectively.
Note: The March survey was conducted March 22–23, 2010, imme- Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, May 2010.
diately after passage of the health care bill.
Source: Quinnipiac, latest that of May 2010.

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 Republicans Still Winning the Enthusiasm Contest
In virtually every recent poll, Republicans have been more interested in, and express more enthusiasm for, voting this fall
than Democrats. In some recent polls, the generic ballot question remains even, but as Gallup notes, “Because Republicans
usually have an advantage in voter turnout over Democrats on Election Day [Gallup’s early June poll has the race dead
even at 46%], a close division on the generic ballot among all registered voters would generally predict a greater ultimate
vote share for Republicans than for Democrats. That has been the case in past years when Republicans had strong show-
ings on Election Day, such as in the 1994 and 2002 midterm elections. In years when Democrats fared better in midterm
elections, such as in 1982 and 2006,” Gallup continues, “[the Democrats] enjoyed large leads on the generic ballot among
all registered voters.”
Q: How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year . . . ?
Extremely enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year
Republicans Democrats
25% May 2010 10%
32 March 17
25 January 13
Note: Sample is registered voters.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of May 2010.

Q:Would you say you are . . . ? Q: Does the way things are going in the nation today
make you . . . ?
Very enthusiastic about
voting in this year’s More likely to vote
Congressional elections in the elections in November
Republicans 46% Republicans 89%
Democrats 24 Democrats 81
Independents 24 Independents 77
Note: Sample is registered voters. Note: Sample is registered voters.
Source: The Gallup Organization, May–June 2010. Source: Quinnipiac, May 2010.

Q: Right now, how interested are you in the November Q: Please tell me how interested you are in November’s
elections? elections . . .
Extremely interested Highly interested*
in the November election Republicans 65%
Republicans 35% Democrats 47
Democrats 23 Independents 46
Independents 25 Note: Sample is registered voters. *Respondents were asked to rate
Note: Sample is registered voters. their interest on a scale of 1 through 10, with 10 representing the
Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, June 2010. highest interest. Highly interested represents a ranking of 10 or 9.
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, May 2010.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew
Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Rugg, Editor.
Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Intern: Lauren Hitt.

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 Reelection Attitudes
In a recent Pew poll, 43 percent of those surveyed say they would like to see their member of Congress reelected in the
fall. This is the lowest response on this question since Pew began asking it sixteen years ago. President Obama is clearly a
lightning rod for Republicans. Sixty-four percent of those who prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans say they do so
because they oppose Barack Obama and Democratic candidates. Thirty-one percent say it is because they support the
policies of the Republican Party and its candidates.
Q: Would you like to see your representative in Congress be re-elected in the next congressional election, or not?
Q: Regardless of how you feel about your own representative, would you like to see most members of Congress re-
elected in the next congressional election, or not?
Would like to see your representative reelected Would like to see most members reelected
—Responses of— —Responses of—
All Rep Dem Ind All Rep Dem Ind
Midterms
2010
Mar. 43% 41% 54% 36% 27% 18% 45% 17%
Feb. 49 45 60 43 32 22 48 24
2006
Nov. 55 69 52 45 37 60 26 27
June 51 63 49 45 29 43 22 24
Feb. 59 70 56 51 36 51 29 30
2002
Oct.* 58 62 59 52 39 46 39 35
Jun. 58 65 59 49 45 53 46 36
1998
Oct.** 64 69 68 56 41 52 39 34
Mar. 63 67 69 55 45 55 44 39
1994
Nov. 58 55 68 52 31 18 49 25
Oct.* 49 49 50 47 28 23 45 18
Note: Sample is registered voters. *Question asked in early October. **Question asked in late October.
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of March 2010.

President Obama as a Lightning Rod for Republicans

Q: What is your preference for the outcome of this year’s congressional elections . . . ?
Q: Is your preference for a _____ more because . . . ?
Prefer a Congress controlled Support the policies of the Republican Party
by Republicans more because I and its candidates 31%
44% Oppose Barack Obama and Democratic candidates 64

Prefer a Congress controlled Support the policies of Barack Obama

by Democrats more because I and its candidates 49%
44% Oppose Republican Party and its candidates 48
Note: Sample is registered voters. In October 1994, 43 percent of registered voters said they preferred a Congress controlled by Republicans and
44 percent one controlled by Democrats. Of the Republicans, 48 percent stated their preference was because they supported the Republican
Party and candidates while 34 percent stated their support was because they opposed the policies of Bill Clinton and Democratic candidates.
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, May 2010. (continued on the next page)

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Q: If you had to choose, which type of congressional candidate would you rather vote for in November . . . ?
———————————Would rather vote for a . . . ———————————
Candidate who has Candidate who has
been in Congress never been in Congress
32% National response 60%

Responses of
22% Republicans 71%
45 Democrats 41
25 Independents 69
Note: Question asked of registered voters.
Source: Gallup/USA Today, May 2010.

Q: Thinking about the elections for Congress this year, please tell me whether you would be more likely or less likely to
vote for a candidate with each of the following characteristics . . . ?
More likely
to vote for a Less likely No difference
candidate who to vote for either way
Will make compromises with people he or she disagrees with 42% 22% 29%
Supported the health care law passed earlier this year 39 35 22
Has never held elective office 24 28 43
Is an incumbent running for reelection 15 27 51
Supported the government providing major loans to banks
during the 2008 financial crisis 14 49 32
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, May 2010.

Q: Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who . . . ?
——————————————More likely to vote for a candidate who——————————————
President Obama supports 43% The Tea Party supports 44%
A candidate he opposes 43 The Tea Party opposes 41
No difference/both equal (vol.) 13 No difference/both equal 10
Note: Sample is registered voters.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, May 2010.

About the Primaries So Far: Tough Times for Incumbents

A few weeks ago, David Wasserman, who watches House races for the Cook Political Report, noted the high number of
House incumbents who have received less than 70 percent of the vote in their respective primaries this election cycle,
which is an unusually low share for incumbents who often receive more than 80 percent of the votes in their primaries.
In 2008, twenty-four incumbents fell into this category. While only twenty-five states have held primaries so far this year,
thirty-one incumbents have gotten less than 70 percent of the vote. With half of the 2010 primaries yet to take place, the
anti-incumbent mood in the electorate appears strong.

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 Putting the 2010 Midterm Contest in Historical Context
We show here two different survey organizations’ congressional race tracking questions. Most pollsters use a variant of
the Gallup question. In a 2009 column, political analyst Stuart Rothenberg discussed the NBC News/Wall Street Journal
question we also show here. Rothenberg quoted Peter Hart (who helped to inaugurate the NBC/WSJ poll in 1989) as say-
ing he found the results from this question insightful.
Q: If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your Congres-
sional district, the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate?(Gallup)
Q: What is your preference for the outcome of this year’s congressional elections—a Congress controlled by Republicans or
a Congress controlled by Democrats? (NBC/Wall Street Journal)

70 2010
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
The Latest:
30 Gallup: Democra�c 47% Gallup Republican 46%
25 NBC/WSJ: Democrat 43% NBC/WSJ: Republican 44%
20
1/14/10

1/21/10

1/28/10

2/4/10

2/11/10

2/18/10

2/25/10

3/4/10

3/11/10

3/18/10

3/25/10

4/1/10

4/8/10

4/15/10

4/22/10

4/29/10

5/6/10

5/13/10

5/20/10
Note: Asked of registered voters.

70
2006
2006 Election Result 70
2002 Election Result
65
Dems: 52% 65 Dems: 45%
60 Reps: 46% 60 Reps: 50%
55 55
53
49
50 52 50

45 45 44
43
40 41 42
37 40

35 35

30 30
Gallup: Democra�c Candidate Gallup:Republican Candidate
Gallup: Democra�c Candidate Gallup: Republican Candidate
25 NBC/WSJ: Republican Congress NBC/WSJ: Democrat congress 25 NBC/WSJ: Republican Congress NBC/WSJ: Democrat Congress

20 20
1/1/06 2/1/06 3/1/06 4/1/06 5/1/06 6/1/06 7/1/06 8/1/06 9/1/06 10/1/06 1/1/02 2/1/02 3/1/02 4/1/02 5/1/02 6/1/02 7/1/02 8/1/02 9/1/02 10/1/02 11/1/02

Note: Asked of registered voters. Election results provided by AEI’s Note: Gallup question asked of registered voters. NBC/Wall Street
Vital Statistics on Congress 2008. Journal question asked of national adults. October 2002 NBC/Wall
Street Journal question asked of registered voters. Election results
provided by AEI’s Vital Statistics on Congress 2008.
(continued on the next page)

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(continued from the previous page)

70 1998 Election Result 70 1994 Election Result

65
Dems: 47% 65
Dems: 45%
60 60
Reps: 48% Reps: 52%
55 55

50 50
47 47
45 46 46
45
43 44
40 40 40

35 35

30 30
Gallup: Democra�c Candidate Gallup: Republican Candidate Gallup: Democra�c Candidate Gallup: Republican Candidate
25 25
NBC/WSJ: Republican Congress NBC/WSJ: Democrat Congress Gallup: Democra�c Candidate, RV Gallup: Republican Candidate, RV
20 20
1/1/98 2/1/98 3/1/98 4/1/98 5/1/98 6/1/98 7/1/98 8/1/98 9/1/98 10/1/98 2/28/94 3/28/94 4/28/94 5/28/94 6/28/94 7/28/94 8/28/94 9/28/94 10/28/94

Note: Asked of registered voters. Election results provided by Note: Gallup surveyed national adults until late October, when it
AEI’s Vital Statistics on Congress 2008. began surveying registered voters. Election results provided by AEI’s
Vital Statistics on Congress 2008.

Q: Thinking about other kinds of political parties and groups, which of the following groups would you say . . . ?
——————Responses of——————
National Republicans Democrats Independents
The Democratic Party best
reflects my views now 31% 4% 71% 17%
The Republican Party 17 49 1 12
Tea Party 14 28 3 16
Green Party 4 1 7 4
None of these 28 15 14 42
Note: Not all categories shown.
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, April 2010.

Poll Potpourri

Support for Europe’s Leaders: Merkel’s Majority

May Jan
Italy: Confidence in Silvio Berlusconi 41% 48%
Greece: Approval rating for George Papandreou 43 53
France: Approval of Nicolas Sarkozy’s performance 41 43
Germany: Voters satisfied with Angela Merkel 58 59
Portugal: Approval of Jose Socrates’s performance 42* 46
Spain: Support for Spain’s Government
(José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero) 34 –
Britain: Approval of David Cameron 54 46**
Ireland: Support for Brian Cowen’s party 23 –
Note: The question about support for Spanish government after the introduction of austerity measures. * Poll taken in late April. **The
January poll on David Cameron asked about his approval as leader of the Conservative Party.
Source: Italy: IPR, Greece: Public Issue Poll, France: IFOP, Germany: TNS/Infratest–dimap, Portugal: Aximage, Spain: Metroscopia, Britain:
Angus Reid, Ireland: Red C Poll. Some of these results appeared in the May 25, 2010 edition of the Financial Times.

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 Health Care, The Latest
Q: Do you . . . ?
May 2010 Dec 2009*
Approve of the federal health care overhaul 40% 38%
Disapprove 51 52
Note: *Question wording was, “From what you have read or heard, do you mostly approve or mostly disapprove of the proposed changes to
the health care system under consideration in Congress?” Poll taken early December.
Source: Quinnipiac University, May 2010.

Q: As you may know, a new health reform bill was signed into law earlier this year. Given what you know about the
new health reform law, do you have a . . . ?
May Apr* Mar^ Feb^ Jan^
Very/Somewhat favorable opinion 41% 46% 46% 43% 42%
Very/Somewhat unfavorable 44 40 42 43 41
Note: *Question wording was “President Obama did sign a health reform bill into law last month . . .Given what you know about the new
health reform law, do you have a generally. . .” ^Question wording was “As of right now, do you generally support or generally oppose the
health care proposals being discussed in Congress?”
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, latest that of May 2010.

Q: Do you . . . ?
Approve of the health care bill which
became law in April 43%
Disapprove 56
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, May 2010.

Little Luv for the Luv Gov?

Q: Do you want . . . ?
———————Responses of New Yorkers———————
All Men Women
Eliot Spitzer should run for statewide office this year 28% 33% 23%
Should not 66 61 70

Should ever run for public office in New York again 43% 51% 34%
Should not 52 44 60
Source: Marist Poll, May 2010.

Gays in the Military

Q: Do you think people who are openly gay or homosexual should or should not be allowed to serve in the U.S. military?
May 2010 Dec 2008 May 2007 Dec 2003
Should 78% 81% 79% 79%
Should not 20 17 18 18
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, May 2007 to 2010. The Gallup Organization, December 2003.

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 Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden: Job Approval
Q: Do you . . . ?
National Dems Reps Ind
Approve of the job Hillary Clinton
is doing as Secretary of State 59% 76% 43% 56%
Disapprove 19 7 31 21

Approve of the job Joe Biden

is doing as Vice President 43% 71% 20% 33%
Disapprove 34 9 60 38
Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, May 2010.

Down in the Dumps Summer Vacation!

Q: In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the Q: Next, we’d like to know about your summer recre-
way things are going in the United States at this time? ation plans, including any vacations or weekend trips
you were planning to take. Which of the following
Average Satisfaction Ratings,
applies to you . . . ?
Midterm Election Years
You plan to travel more this summer
Satisfied than you did last summer 18%
1982 24% About the same 37
1986 60 Less this summer 27
1990 40 You don’t travel much during the summer 18
1994 33
Source: The Gallup Organization, May 2010.
1998 60
2002 52
2006 31
2010 23
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of January to May, 2010.

Oil Spill
Q: From what you’ve seen and heard, to you think . . . ?
The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is a major environmental disaster
May 55%
June 73
Note: May response from Pew Research Center.
Source: ABC News/Washington Post, latest that of June 2010.

Q: Do you think the recent oil platform collapse and oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is . . . ?
June May
Mostly likely an isolated incident 45% 51%
An indication of a broader problem with offshore drilling 45 35
Source: CBS News, latest that of June 2010.

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 Opinions on Obama
Approval and Congressional Losses during the first midterm of the presidency
——————Presidential Approval—————— President’s party’s President’s party’s
June October gain/loss in House gain/loss in Senate
Eisenhower 62% 61% –18 –1
Kennedy 71 61 –4 +2
Johnson* 48 44 –48 –4
Nixon 55 58 –12 +1
Carter^ 44 49 –15 –3
Reagan 45 42 –26 +1
Bush 67 66 –8 –1
Clinton 46 42 –54 –8^^
Bush 70 67 +8 +1
Obama 46 ? ? ?
Note: *Polling data from 1966, the first midterm election of Johnson’s presidency. ^This poll was taken on June 2-5, 1978. On June 16–19
1978, 42 percent approved. ^^Sen. Richard Shelby (AL) switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party the day following the election,
so that the total loss was nine seats. Clinton’s approval numbers were reported incorrectly in a previous edition of Political Report. The numbers
printed here are correct.
Source: The Gallup Organization. AEI’s Vital Statistics on Congress, 2008.

Q: Do you . . . ? Q: Changing topics, please tell me whether the following

statement applies to Obama, or not?
The way Obama is handling
the economy Obama understands the
problems of people like you
Approve Disapprove
50% June 2010 49% Yes No
56 June 2009 41 51% June 2010 48%
Note: In March 2009, after the passage of the stimulus legislation, 63 July 2009 35
60 percent approved and 38 percent disapproved. In the new June
2010 poll, of the 49 percent who disapproved of the way he is han-
Obama is a strong leader
dling the economy, 37 percent disapproved strongly.
Yes No
The way Obama is handling 57% June 2010 43%
the federal budget deficit 71 July 2009 27
Approve Disapprove Source: ABC/Washington Post, latest that of June 2010.

39% June 2010 56%

Q: Overall, which political party, the Democrats or the
48 June 2009 48
Republicans, do you . . . ?
Trust the Democrats to
The way Obama is handling do a better job in coping
the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico with the main problems
Approve Disapprove the nation faces over Trust
the next few years the GOP
44% June 2010 49%
June 2010 44% 32%
Source: ABC/Washington Post, latest that of June 2010.
August 2009 48 28
May 2008 53 32
June 2006 48 38
June 2005 46 41
Note: Not all points shown.
Source: ABC/Washington Post, latest that of June 2010.

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