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Political Report January 2010: AEI's Monthly Poll Compilation

Political Report January 2010: AEI's Monthly Poll Compilation

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This issue of Political Report features polls and data on President Obama's first year in office; changes in party and ideological identification over the past year and decade; the condition of the national economy; attitudes on abortion; health care; how Obama is viewed abroad; the upcoming British elections; and more.
This issue of Political Report features polls and data on President Obama's first year in office; changes in party and ideological identification over the past year and decade; the condition of the national economy; attitudes on abortion; health care; how Obama is viewed abroad; the upcoming British elections; and more.

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Published by: American Enterprise Institute on Mar 18, 2011
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Volume 6, Issue 1 • January 2010
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800www.aei.org
Party on in 2010
The decline in Democratic fortunes can be seen by looking at Gallup’s 2009 quarterly results. In the first quarter,51.7 percent of those surveyed called themselves Democrats; in the fourth quarter, that had dropped to 47.2 percent.Overall, Democrats still hold the advantage. In terms of ideology, conservatives remain on top. Republicans havebecome more conservative over the decade, Democrats more liberal.
Q: In politics today, do you consider yourself a . . . ?
2009 by quarter—20091st 2nd 3rd 4th Total
Republican 38.7% 39.6% 42.4% 42.2% 40.7%Democrat 51.7 48.8 48.2 47.2 49.0
Note: Includes those who lean to the Republican and Democratic parties.Source: The Gallup Organization.
19901999 20002009
Republican 29.9% 30.9%Democrat 33.3 33.3Independent 36.8 34.8
Note: The Pew Research Center 2009 yearly totals were 37 percent Republican, 50.1 percent Democrat.Source: The Gallup Organization.
Q: Will 2010 be . . . ?
For the Republicans For the Democrats
53% 2010 will be better than 2009 13%17 2010 will be worse 60
Note: More Democrats thought 2010 would be worse for the Democrats than thought it would be better (33 to 28 percent). Sixty-threepercent of independents said 2010 would be better for the GOP; 73 percent of independents said it would be worse for the Democrats.Source: Zogby International, December 2009.
Q: How would you describe your political views . . . ?
———————————————Among——————————————NationalRepublicansDemocratsIndependents2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009 2000 2009
Conservative 38% 40% 62% 71% 25% 21% 29% 35%Moderate 40 36 31 24 44 39 44 43Liberal 19 21 6 4 29 38 21 18
Note: Data for each year are aggregated. Sample sizes range from approximately 10,000 to 40,000 for the annual compilations.Source: The Gallup Organization.
 
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800www.aei.org
2
The Economy: Little to Cheer About
Q: How would you rate . . . ?
January 2010 February 2009The condition ofthe national economy
Good 17% 5%Bad 82 94
Source: CBS News, latest that of January 2010.
Q: How would you rate . . . ?
December 2009 January 2009The current job marketin my region
Good 9% 6%Bad 72 76
Source: Online survey conducted by Harris Interactive, latest that of December 2009.
Obama and His Liberal Base
Amid criticism from the Left about Barack Obama, and the hint of a possible challenge from Howard Dean in 2012, Pewlooked at liberal and moderate-to-conservative Democrats’ views about their president. Twenty-nine percent of liberalDemocrats who approve of the job Obama is doing say they are disappointed with things he has done. But 27 percent of moderate-to-conservative Democrats give that response. A greater percentage of liberal Democrats in December thanApril say he is listening more to moderates in the Democratic Party than to them.Majorities of conservative Republicans supported George W. Bush throughout his presidency, but his supportdropped from the 90 percent level in 2005 to around 65 percent when he left the presidency.
Q: Do you . . . ? (Those who approved were then asked: While you approve of Obama’s performance overall, are thereany things he has done that you have been disappointed or unhappy with, or can’t you think of anything?)
————————————Democrats————————————All Liberal Moderate/conservative
Approve of Obama’s job performancebut have been disappointed or unhappywith things 27% 29% 27%
———————Response of Liberal Democrats———————December 2009 April 2009
Obama is listening more to liberalsin his party 20% 28%Obama is listening more to moderates 54 44
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2009.
 
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800www.aei.org
3
Health Care Reform: The Evolution of Our Opinions
Below we show how attitudes have developed over the course of the debate on health care. All polls show opinion movingagainst President Obama in terms of his handling of the issue since the summer, some more dramatically than others.Gallup and Pew showed a small uptick in support for reform proposals in January 2010, but their overall results are dif-ferent. More Americans still trust President Obama to handle health care reform than trust congressional Republicans.
Gallup
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care policy?Q: Would you advise your member of Congress to vote for or against a health care bill this year, or do you not havean opinion?*
——Obama handling——Advise your member to—Approve Disapprove Vote for Vote against
January 2010 - - 49% 46%December 2009 - - 46 48November 2009 40% 53% 44 49October 2009 - - 51 41September 2009 43 52 50 47August 2009 43 49July 2009 44 50
Note: *Responses include leaners.
ABC News/
Washington Post 
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling health care?Q: Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the proposed changes to thehealth care system being developed by Congress and the Obama administration ?Q: Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care reform—Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
——Obama handling———Proposed changes—— Trust to handleApprove Disapprove Support Oppose Obama Republicansin Congress
January 2010December 2009 44% 53% 44% 51% 46% 39%November 2009 47 49 48 49 50 37October 2009 48 48 45 48 - -September 2009 48 48 46 48 48 36August 2009 46 50 45 50 - -July 2009 49 44 - - 54 34
(continued on the next page)
Karlyn Bowman
, Senior Fellow;
John Fortier
, ResearchFellow;
Norman Ornstein
, Resident Scholar;
Michael Barone
, Resident Fellow.Research Assistants:
Jennifer Marsico
, Editor;
Andrew Rugg 
, Editor.
AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

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