ARTICLES 2 + 2

Getting into Small Stakes Online 6-max NLHE (nextgenneo)........................................3

My 5k post (fees)...........................................................................................................13
Basic theory – expected value (matrix).........................................................................27
A FRAMEWORK FOR POKER STUDY (learnedfromtv)..........................................31
What matters, What doesn't (cbloom)............................................................................36
6 Max fundamentals for SSNL players (Tien)...............................................................38
Tien's Article on Mentality, Image, and changing gears (Tien)....................................41
Almost there with Success and Failure (Gigabet)..........................................................44
Thoughts on Running bad for UNL guys (ssdex)..........................................................47
Do things for a reason (ofishstix)...................................................................................49
Evolving (MTG)............................................................................................................50
Opening Up Your Eyes and Your Game (AJFenix)......................................................52
How to use Poker Tracker (Pokey)................................................................................56
SOME THOUGHTS ON GAME SELECTION (fiksdal).............................................59
How to Put It All Together and be a Winning Player (MikeyPatriot)...........................62
Advice from a MHNL'er (whitelime’s).........................................................................64
UNL YOU ARE WEAK TIGHT (Pokey).....................................................................71
Working on your game (kom)........................................................................................74
The Basics: session review & " Deconstruction" (matrix)............................................77
THE EVOLUTION OF A POKER PLAYER (aejones)...............................................79
BETTING THE TURN vs BETTING THE RIVER (Reguin)......................................84
Crushing Short Stacks (Cry Me A River)......................................................................87
My Pooh-Bah post (C/R vs. b/3b) (Dan Bitel)..............................................................97
Small PP's - Moving beyond set mining (AZplaya)......................................................99
Where the !*$# is Valuetown?? (pokey).....................................................................101
Playing OOP (epdaws).................................................................................................118
LOOSE AGGRESSIVE PLAY (BalugaWhale)..........................................................122
You Should Open Limp......... (RichC.).......................................................................124
Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (goofyballer)..........................................126
Reraised Blind Battles and Bluffing with Marginal Hands (sam h)............................130
3-betting light (Dan Bitel)............................................................................................134
Preflop 4betting (Theory) (tannenj).............................................................................137
Blind stealing (Pokey)..................................................................................................147
Taking stealing the blinds to next level (Dan Bitel)....................................................152
TILT and PSYCHOLOGY...........................................................................................154
The psychology of TILT (DaycareInferno).................................................................154
TILT and R.A.A. (Pjo336)...........................................................................................156
My Take On Tilt (beavens)..........................................................................................159
Variance, Tilt, Ego, and SSNL (lmw)..........................................................................162
EVERYTHING ABOUT CONTINUATION BET.....................................................164
Continuation betting – PART I (MYNAMEIZGREG)...............................................164
C-BETTING (The Machine)........................................................................................166
CONTINUATION BET ARTICLE (FreakDaddy).....................................................169
WHY AM-I C-BETTING AGAIN ? (biblio-san).......................................................173
Some thoughts on continuation bet sizing (Panthro)...................................................177
DOUBLE BARRELING (orange)...............................................................................184
 GET IT IN (poincaraux)..............................................................................................186
PLAYING JUNK FROM LATE POSITION (tannenj)...............................................189
HAND RANGES, READS AND NOTES....................................................................201
READS (djoyce003)....................................................................................................201
HAND READING / BET SIZING (carnivalhobo)......................................................205
AN UNBELIEVABLY LONG GUIDE TO HAND READING (Pokey)...................209
Taking Notes & Making Reads Article (I) (FreakDaddy)...........................................217
Taking Notes & Making Reads Article (II) (FreakDaddy)..........................................227
HAND RANGES (Mercman572)................................................................................232
RANGES (supwithbates).............................................................................................234
The thought process during a hand (Nogastira)
......................................................................................................................................236
.....................................................................................................................................239
Profiling opponents using PAH (sh58)........................................................................240
SOME GOOD TO KNOW PAHUD STUFF (Nick Royale).......................................244
BLUFFING.....................................................................................................................248
Bluffing assay (ThePortuguee)....................................................................................248
Getting into Small Stakes Online 6-max NLHE
(nextgenneo)

Disclaimer: This is something I wrote for a friend who wanted to get into
poker and I’ve decided to share it with the general populous. This is
designed for uNL 6max and a lot of the concepts may not apply to higher
stakes games against opponents thinking on higher levels. There could be
plain wrong information, in here so question everything, in turn you will
gain better understandings of fundamentals and maybe even help me
overlook something I've forgot. I am not claiming that preflop 6max is
"chart based" or a few simple rules will make you a winning player but for
someone starting out I think the concepts here are good starting points.
Take everything in this for face value. Some of the stuff might be fairly
trivial however it never hurts to think about fundamentals. I don't claim to
be the best in the world but I know I am a proven winner at MSNL so that
counts for something. I've worked up from $300 on $25NL so I've put my
time in on lower stakes and no the grind it is, however it’s got to be done.

Introduction

When it comes to NLHE, this is the fundamental theory: You're opponent has a range of
hands, some are better and some are worse. Your goal is to maximize your profit from the
worst hands whilst minimizing your losses from better hands and so, make the most
money against their range. As the hand goes on and more betting decisions have been
made, your opponents range is narrowed so at no point in the hand do you have to "find
out where you are". This is a common misconception.

Consider a hand where you have 99 oop in a 3bet pot on an 8 high board (without the
lead). If you c/r the flop to find out where you are, your average opponent will fold all the
range you beat (over cards, small pairs) and stack off against the opponents range of QQ-
AA. The fundamental theorem has been violated by trying to "find out where you are" on
the flop. Instead if you check called and check/raised the turn all in this would allow an
opponent to double barrel a hand such as AK, over commit with pairs or check behind
giving us free information to narrow the opponents range and profit more. This is how
you should be thinking during your hands. Do not allow your opponent to make easy and
perfect decisions against your hand by playing it poorly.

Also if you want to play poker for fun then enjoy it, try and improve; whatever. But if
you want to move up and make serious money you need to approach it from a different
angle. When you have a bad session, instead of thinking “oh crap I lost 6 buy ins from
bad beats”, think “how could I have saved myself I buy in or two”, “how could I have
made more money than I did on so and so hand” etc. Until you are the best player in the
world and playing every hand perfectly there is always room for improvement. Take
responsibility for your play, and stop using variance as a scape goat.

Stats are very important but not the end all of being a winning player. TAG stats are at
minimum 15/13/3 and can range all the way up to 25/20/4 where its vpip/pfr/af. Try and
aim for 16/14/4. The spread is also really important and it is vital to have your pfr close
to your vpip whilst learning, so I suggest you play a mainly raise / fold strategy preflop.
The better you get and the more comfortable you feel postflop, the more you can cold call
preflop and this spread can get wider.

Its also very important to not play too many tables whilst you learn. This is a mistake a
lot of people make and even I still do sometimes. Playing loads of tables means you need
to be comfortable making 95% of decisions with little thought (autopilot) so until you are
really experienced this isn’t going to be the case. First bit of advice is to play no more
than 4 tables until you are a solid winner. Post flop is going to be a lot about thinking
during hands and will come from reading, thinking, watching videos and mostly
experience.

Learning is key to playing good poker, its a lot of work but the monetary reward later and
satisfaction in being truly good at something is a reward in itself. I really hope you read
this and take something out of it, I wish someone handed all of this to me on a platter
when I was coming up!
 Recommend Stats for HUD

I definitely recommend playing with a HUD. The stats that are a MUST are preflop raise,
vpip, number of hands. Aggression frequencies / factors. Fold / raise / call continuation
bet. Attempt to steal blinds and fold SB/BB to steal.

Preflop Chart

First thing to do with preflop is a general hand chart. This is a style that was successful
for me. You need to keep in mind preflop that different table conditions and your image
on each table can vastly shift these ranges. As you gain a clear understanding of how
these factors should change your ranges then you can move away from this rigid form of
play.

Raises should always be 4 x the big blind + 1 big blind for every limper
e.g If two guys limp and you are on the button with AK in .05-.10c game you
should make it .60c.

Open raise the following hands (open raise means if no-one has raised or limped).

These positions are dependent on how far from the button you are so if its less than six
handed then change accordingly.

Early Position

UTG (3 from button)

22 +
AJo +
ATs – AKs
TJs, QJs, KQs
KQo, AKo
56s – T9s (consider raising from time to time, especially if there are weaker
players in the blinds)

UTG + 1 (2 from button)

22 +
ATo +
A2s +
TJs, QJs, KQs, KJs
QJo, KJo, KQo, AKo
56s – T9s (consider raising from time to time, especially if there are weaker
players in the blinds)

Late Position

Something interesting from a theory perspective, if you look at the small blinds fold SB
to steal stat and the big blinds fold BB to steal stat, if they multiply to be > 0.7 and you
assume every time they don’t fold you never win the hand then theoretically you can
raise any two profitably. If you consider you make money with these hands then this 0.7
number can be lowered further.

CO (1 from button)

22 +
A8o +
A2s +
T8s, 98s, T9s, TJs, QJs, KQs, KJs, KTs, QTs, K9s, Q9s, J9s
TJo, QTo, QJo, KTo, KJo, KQo, AKo
56s – T9s

Button

The majority of your money comes from the button. 30-40% of my profits come
from the button so you want to abuse it.

22+
Any Ax o / Ax s
Kx suited
Any suited connector 54s or better
Any one gapper 68s or better
Any two gapper T7s or better
Any connector 89o or better
J8s +, J9o+
Q8s +, Q9o+
K9o +

Blinds

This is the area I struggle with the most and when you’re starting out I recommend
playing a very tight range in the blinds.

Small blind when it folds to you (pretty much same as UTG+1)

22 +
A8o +
A2s +
TJs, QJs, KQs, KJs
QJo, KJo, KQo, AKo

Big Blind when it folds around and someone completes (same as CO)

22 +
A9o +
A8s +
T8s, 98s, T9s, TJs, QJs, KQs, KJs, KTs, QTs, K9s, Q9s, J9s
TJo, QTo, QJo, KTo, KJo, KQo, AKo
 Big blind when there are a few limpers

99+ (sometimes raise with lower pockets if the table is fishy)

AQo +
KQs +
AKo

Suited connectors

Suited connectors are generally over-rated by a lot of players and are very tough hands to
play. I wouldn’t be calling raises with suited connectors even from position because
people over-estimate implied odds all the time and they can get tough to play post flop.
Every now it is alright to call with 78s if the raiser is a bad player (as in he has 40+ vpip
and is spewy). Also they are good to open according to my opening guide above.

They are also good to 3bet. If someone is raising a lot of hands from position then you
can reraise them occasionally with suited connectors but this has a lot to do with
metagame and table image which is a little too advance for this but some food for
thought.

Suited connectors are good to be calling raises with however when you are playing deep
i.e 150bb + with someone but don’t get carried away.

Playing from the blinds

When you are starting out the blinds are going to be the trickiest spot to play from. They
are for most experienced players including myself. First off don’t fall into the, its only ½
big blind to complete trap. Hands like 96o are garbage and should never be completed!
You will have to play the rest of the hand out of position and unless you flop the absolute
stone cold nuts your gonna get in a lot of trouble and be throwing money away.

Play as tight as you possibly can from the small blind but with pocket pairs you
probably want to be raising when there are limpers. The big blind can be tricky but I
prefer to check my option most of the time and see a flop.
 Preflop Concepts

Position

As you can see from this guide position is everything. These are very general rules for how I
beat micro stakes and as you get better with these you will gain a feel for hands and situations
and be able to change these ranges depending on opponents, your image on the table and how
the table has been playing. I can’t stress enough though you want to play tight from all
positions other than CO and Button and loosen up from those spots but still play aggressive!

Limping

Limping in 6 handed NLHE cash games is always going to be a mistake. It will also add
another level of complexity to your game that is unnecessary. For instance if you limp 22-55
UTG then you will have to start limping other hands, including strong ones, and limp/raising
AA and limp/raising bluffs to balance your ranges. By always raising you’re making yourself
harder to play against, keeping your ranges balanced without the bigger headache, and always
gaining the positive expectation of putting yourself in a position to steal the blinds. Limping
also leads to people playing less than optimal hands. If its not good enough for a raise, its not
good enough to play so fold.

Limpers

Having said that about limping, limpers are and will be a part of the games for the foreseeable
future. To exploit these players mistake you need to be isolating (raising) there limps with a
fairly wide range. It is also good to watch there play and get an idea if they limp/call or
limp/fold a lot. A player that limp/folds a ton means you can isolate him with any ace and
even hands like Q7s / 78s. Also players that limp/call and then fold lots of flops to c-bets are
good candidates to isolate very wide. However, be weary of players who limp/call a lot and
rarely fold to c-bets. It is generally a mistake to isolate them with weak connector type hands.
By doing this you will be putting money in with the worst hand a lot of the time and not
enough fold equity pre or post.

Pockets if there are limpers in front

You want to raise any pocket pairs as standard if they are full stacked. This is so you can:

 Punish their limp and pick up the free money

 You build a pot so if you hit your set its going to be easier to get their stack in.
 Deception. If you are always limping behind with pockets its going to be obvious
against thinking opponents

Reasons to just limp behind with pockets are if their stack is not a full 100bb. Generally if
your raise is going to be more than 10% of their stack then don’t make the raise. However
if one person who limps has a large stack and another is short, still make the raise. For
instance:

In a .05c-.10c game someone open limps UTG with a $2.10 stack. It is onto you in the CO
with 44, you prob don’t want to raise to 0.4c because the implied odds are cut short due to his

8
small stack and he is going to be much more willing to just stick it in with any draw / pair on
the flop which will lead you to some tough decisions and often folding the best hand.

However, in a .05c-.10c game someone open limps UTG with an $11 stack (you cover). It is
onto you in the CO with 44, you do want to make it 50c to go always with any pocket.

Calling raises and re-raises with pocket pairs

This is a very general rule which applies to all of small stakes but won’t work in mid stakes
and beyond. There’s lots of literature on this in the sticky section of 2p2.

If someone raises and you have a pocket pair, call if it is 5-10% of your
stack.

Reasons for this are you will flop a set about 1 in 10 times and if you assume you will win
their stack you have the implied odds. You want to look at poker ace hud stats though in
making the decision. The higher the vpip the more you can call profitably pre looking to hit a
set because generally this means they are poor players who will stack of lightly. If someone
with a 20 vpip raises I wouldn’t want to call more than 5% of my stack off because they are
good enough to not pay you off all the time. Whereas if someone with 55vpip raises I would
have no problems calling 10% off with 22 because you will often win unimproved and
generally they will continue with any piece of the board so its going to be very easy to play a
big pot with them. Also, if you are facing a large raise or reraise you want to call off less of
your stack out of position than in position.

E.g 1 In a .05-.10c game you make it 0.40c from UTG+1 with 33, a solid player with 20vpip
raises to $1.20 from the button, its onto you. You are $10 deep here I’d be inclined to fold
because they are probably re-raising you wide enough that you would need a setup flop to
stack them and this will happen too infrequently. You are also out of position.

E.g 2 In a .05-.10c game you make it 0.40c from UTG+1 with 33, a solid player with 20vpip
raises to $1.20 from the big blind, its onto you. You are $14 deep here I’d be inclined to call
because you are in position so it will be easier to put money in, and you are also slightly
deeper so you have better implied odds.

E.g 3 In a .05-.10c game you make it 0.40c from UTG with 33, a very tight player with
15vpip raises to $1.00 from the button, its onto you. You are $5 deep here I’d be inclined to
fold because you don’t have the proper implied odds.

E.g 4 In a .05-.10c game you make it 0.40c from UTG with 33, a very tight player with
15vpip raises to $1.00 from the button, its onto you. You are $10 deep here I’d be inclined to
call because even thought it is tight his range is a big pocket pair enough of the time that you
can be confident the majority of the time you hit a set you will be good.

Hope you see the point of calling raises for set value. This changes drastically in mid limits
because people’s 3betting ranges are much wider but I feel this can be used almost perfectly
against micro / small stakes players. This is all very important as pocket pairs are where
most of your money comes from when you play tight aggressive 6max.

9
 Important concept: Something else to consider is their raise and aggression statistic.
If someone has a large raise % or is very aggressive then if it’s a tight call from
implied odds perspective then you might want to dump it because they could be
reraising you light with AQ/AJ type hands and you would need the perfect flop to
stack them (A3x if u hold 33) whereas if they hardly raise their range is drastically cut
down and contains big pockets a lot of the time so you don’t need that “perfect flop”. I
would consider a large raise % to be anything >17 and a high aggression factor
anything > 3.5. Bare in mind that poker ace statistics like agro factors are only useful
when u have 100+ hands but vpip is generally a good indicator from 30-40 hands on.

A brief note on 3betting

When I played micro stakes entering a raised pot I pretty much never flat call a raise out of
position ever! So if I have KQ in the blinds or AJ in the blinds and some raises I am either
folding or raising. If they have a full 100bb then I will raise 3-4times their raise. Out of
position I recommend when your reraise should be 4 times and in position you can get away
with raising 3 times because its going to be easier to play the hand.

When you are considering entering a raised pot you should look at their preflop raise stat. The
higher it is, the wider the range of hands you can reraise with is. If some1 raises 2% of flops
you prob just want to call with TT and play for set value and fold KQ because their range is
so strong but if someone raises 18% of hands you should be reraising KQ and TT often
against them because you are ahead of their range. 3-betting “light” is a very hard style to
play against and most people on microstakes think that when some1 reraises they have
AA/KK so your c-bets don’t have to be as big because they are going to get A LOT of
respect.

However I don’t recommend 3-betting too light at these stakes because there is no real need
and when you are starting your poker career its best to keep it simple. If you feel the hand
isn’t good enough for a reraise then dump it!

Something very important which I forgot to mention is when someone raises look at what
position they are raising from and if there are limpers in front. This can give you a lot of
information on their hand but only take into this account if they seem to be a good player
(because only good players widen their range in position). If you think they could have a wide
range then 3-bet more liberally.

Continuation bets

Heads up when you’ve raised preflop you want to be c-betting 60-70% of flops. This is to do
with the overall concept that your opponent will only hit the flop 1 in 3 times, thus 66% of the
time your opponent will have missed and be unable to continue. The fishier the opponent the
less you want to c-bet completely missed hands. Board texture comes a lot into this but there
are lots of great threads about this which I will try to link to some other time. I generally try to
keep my continuation bets the same size, between 2/3rd and ¾ pot depending on stack sizes.
The smaller their stack size the less you can bet is what I find. Anything less than 2/3 rd pot
most of the time gets no respect. Into multiple opponents you can get away with betting ½ pot
occasionally but I don’t really recommend it.

10
When I’ve missed a flop or hit a flop I always like to continuation bet to disguise my hands
well and build a pot (when I have something). The best way to get money in the pot when you
have a strong hand is to bet it out. Especially on lower stakes games your edge comes from
people playing dominated / bad hands and not being able to fold them when they hit or paying
too much for their draws so value bet your hands to hell!

But for a quick example on board texture:

Boards like: K26 rainbow are GREAT to c-bet any hand because its really hard for the
opponent to have hit this board with a lot of his hands.

Boards like: KJT with two diamonds are not good to be continuation betting 22 because so
much of the range has hit this board you prob just spewing money away.

Boards like: KQ7 with two spades have hit a lot of the range but are still good to c-bet against
tighter opponents because if u bet 2/3rd pot as a c-bet you need to win it a little less than 50%
of the time for it to be profitable which it should be.

Boards like Q88 with a pair are usually good to be c-betting too.

Into multiple opponents you want to be c-betting less on boards like the KQ7 but its still good
to c-bet great textured boards like K26. Also when you bet into multiple opponents you get
more respect (generally). Obv by multiple opponents I mean 2ish, not the whole table!

11
Summary

Things that I have just touched on and need A LOT more depth are c-bets, 3betting,
metagame, table image and all that jazz. I suggest tight and aggressive. Don’t get out of line
and avoid marginal situations. Wield position like a hammer because it really is the most
important concept in NLHE. Try not to over-estimate implied odds or suited connectors as it
will cost you in the long run!

In future I will write articles on:

• 3betting and playing against 3betting
• Double barreling
• Check raising continuation bets (both for value and as bluffs)

Keep in mind this is all written quickly and off the top of my head. There may be mistakes in
here but using a system like this and lots of experience I was able to cruise through micro
stakes. Practice and thinking about this game / posting hands / asking questions is the real fun
and learning process. This is just a start. Good luck.

12
My 5k post (fees)

Hey guys,

I started out here at 2p2 sometime last Feb at uNL as a pretty terrible strategy poster.
Since then not much has changed (=P) still pretty lazy and rarely get around to making
truly great strat posts, but this post will be an exception. I tried to write an ebook a little
more than a month ago but about half way through I realized how much I hate writing
and how lazy I was so I finished about half of it. Maybe if this thread gets positive
feedback I'll finish it, but here's what I have thus far written of an ebook on the topic of
beating uNL-MSNL online 6max. Enjoy=D

(sry if it doesn't read well I haven't had anyone proofread it)

Table of Contents: (this is what the book would look like if I wrote the whole thing, I got
up to floating=/)
1. Preface
2. Preflop:
A. UTG
B. MP
C. CO
D. BTN
E. SB
F. BB
3. Flop
A. Cbetting
B. c/ring
C. Floating
D. Raising
F. Unraised pots
4. Turn
A. Double Barreling
B. c/ring
C. Floating
D. Raising
F. Unraised pots
5. River
A. Triple barreling
B. c/ring
C. Floating
D. Raising
F. Unraised pots
6. Psychology
A. betsizing
B. Timing
C. History
7. Mentality
A. Health
B. Game analysis
C. Downswings
D. Upswings
E. Session Length
F. Multitabling

Preface

13
This book will cover small stakes online 6 max ring games. All hands will be assumed to
be 6 handed, though other situations will be discussed. The focus of this book will be the
progression of a hand or; preflop, flop, turn, river.

Your hand ranges in general should adjust and be contrary to the way the game is
playing.
This means that if the game is loose (meaning there are a lot of bad players, generally
players with VPIP’s higher than 28, for example a player that plays 32/5/1 is a weak bad
player) you should be playing a tighter more solid game, bluffing less often (including
semibluffs) and value betting thinly with 1 pair type hands. You should also play less
starting hands. On the flip side if the game is tighter you should loosen up your starting
range (incorporating hands such as 65s UTG as discussed previously) to exploit the your
opponents tendency to fold. In these instances you should semibluff and bluff more , as
you will find more fold equity.
Loose players will search for an excuse to call, whereas a tight player will look for an
excuse to fold.

Table selection
When Table selecting you want to look for the following things:

• Players that play too many hands, anything above 40 VPIP is gravy, but 30 is too many
hands as well. Also players that play something like 25/10 (meaning they are
limping/calling WAY too much preflop) will do as well

• Stack sizes. Generally you want players with full stacks to the right of you. You want to
have position on players that you cover, as it is +EV. At the same time you want players
with short stacks to your left, as short stackers that have position on you are +EV for
you. In a perfect world you would play with 3 full stacks with VPIPs over 40 to your right,
and too tight short stackers to your left, but this will rarely ever happen, its just
something to think about.

• Position and hands played. As described in the second feature for good game selection
you want loose players to your right and tight players to your left. Again this isn’t
essential but its something to think about when switching/selecting seats, as well as
changing games.

• Losing/breakeven regulars. Your strategy should involve you playing 4 tables or less
and really focusing on your opponents and developing very strong reads. Feel free to
play with a regular that you have as a loser or marginal winner in your database. Avoid
winners. Your superior strategy will make it profitable to sit in a game with these players
and exploit them, so feel free to sit, just don’t search them out or make a habit of it
unless they are really bad.

• As a general guideline it is better to play at a table with a bunch of loose passive/weak

tight type players than a table with someone who players 80% of their hands and 4 other
solid TAGs. For example I prefer a table with a: 40/10, 30/20, 25/14, 20/12, 17/12 than
a table with a 70/30, 23/20, 20/18, 20/18, 18/15. Its going to be easier to play against
several bad/mediocre opponents that 1 very bad opponent and 4 good ones.

Poker is simple, as your opponents make mistakes, you profit.

Agaisnt Loose/bad players you generally want to play straight forward tight solid poker.
Agaisnt Tight/good players you generally want to mix up your play and play a trickier or
deceptive style. Do not make the mistake that every 20/17 multitabling tag is tight AND
good. Agiasnt these types of players you want to lean towards a looser pre-flop strategy
and a solid postflop strategy, as they will make mistakes for you, forcing them is not
necessary.

14
Preflop:

This chapter is going to demonstrate preflop strategy and will focus on raising ranges,
calling ranges and 3betting preflop (3B) aka preflop reraise.

Under the Gun (UTG)

Being under the gun means that you have three players to act that hold position on you;
middle position (MP), cut off (CO) and the button (BTN). It also means you have two
players to act that are out of position relative to you, the small blind (SB) and big blind
(BB). Your UTG raising range should be the tightest of the four non-blind positions. Lets
take a look at a standard preflop UTG range, assuming full stacks and a mix of tags/lag
fish (players that play too many hands without purpose)/and loose passive (fish that
check call and are easy to extract value from):
Range:
22+ (all pairs)
A10s+ (meaning A10s, AJs, AQs, AKs) (s meaning suited)
AJo+ (meaning AJo, AQo, AKo) (o meaning offsuit)
98s+ (meaning 98s, 109s, J10s, QJs, etc)
KQo
KQs
KJs+ (KJs and AQs[which was already covered]) (meaning suited 1 gappers)`
This will account for 13% of hands and is a conservative but very solid and profitable
preflop raising range. Your UTG range can adjust based on the game quality you are in.

Adjusting:

Loose games:

Add hands like KJo or A10o, because you can make 1 pair type hands and extract value
from players calling with weaker top pair hands or second pair hands. The reason we
typically avoid these type of hands in tight games is because we will frequently show up
with second best 1 pair hands out of position (OOP) and will put us in tough spots and to
lots of decisions. Always try to make poker easy to play.

Tight Games:

Include hands such as 65s+ or A5s. These hands have a lot of potential and will less
often put you into situations where you have weak 1 pair hands out of position. These
hands widen you range against likely better players and make you a more difficult and
tricky opponent.

Stack Sizes:

You should also adjust your raising range based on stack sizes. For instance say you are
UTG and there are two or three players with say 40BB stack sizes (or less). In this
scenario you should avoid hands like 22-66 and 98s, and instead substitute in hands like
KJo, QJo, A9s, A10o, because against these players you again are simply looking for a
top pair type hand to get it in against (These 40bb stack players will generally be very
bad and play poorly postflop getting it in with a wide range that doesn’t include many top
pair type hands) Though it should be made clear in the higher MSNL and HSNL (medium
and high stakes games) there are players who play a very tight and solid short stack
game that are more difficult to play against, however it is uncommon to encounter one of
these players anywhere below 3/6NL.

Middle Position (MP)

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Being in Middle Position means that you will have one player to act in front of you (UTG)
whom you have position on, two players to act behind you (CO and BTN) who have
position on you, and two players to act behind you (SB and BB) that you have position
on. Middle position is very similar to UTG, you will incorporate a few more hands,
however all the same principals apply. Again lets exam a standard preflop MP range,
assuming full stacks and a mix of tags/lag fish (players that play too many hands without
purpose)/and loose passive (fish that check call and are easy to extract value from):

22+ (all pairs)

A9s+
A10o+
98s+
KQo/KJo/KQs/ KJs/K10s

This accounts for about 15% of total hands. Just like UTG this range can be manipulated
based on the game quality.

Adjusting:

Loose games: You generally want to avoid things like A9o, as its potential is very small.
Just like UTG you can still profitably raise 98s and 109s, just do it less frequently. For
example maybe you only raise these hands roughly half the time you are dealt them. Use
your image/table history to determine the optimal raising opportunity. For the most part
in a looser game you want to keep things closer to the vest, so just simply raise less
hands in this position.
Tight Games: These games you can open up more from this position, include;
65s+
A8s, A5s
Q10s

Isolating:
Pending a very weak player, playing 40% or more of his hands, you need to keep in mind
that peoples limping range UTG is as tight as it will get for them (even though it could be
wide). You have to be careful about isolating in this position because there are two
players with position on you that understand you can isolate these players with a wide
range. It is ok to try and add a hand like J9s to your range here for the purpose of
isolating a weak player (by weak I mean folding too much, whether it be limp folding, or
to cbets/double barrels) however if you have one or two tight aggressive opponents
behind you that will exploit your extended range you should err on the side of folding to
avoid marginal situations. In the event that these players are in the blinds or you game
selected well and you aren’t at a table with opponents that go after you, sure go for it,
isolate that limper.

3betting:
In general you should be 3betting far more in position that OOP.
The only person you can 3bet in MP is UTG. You need to be very cautious when 3betting
an UTG opener, because this is where their raising range is likely the tightest (ignoring
when they are in the blinds).

Light 3bets are certainly profitable, however the ratio of light 3bet to value 3bet should
be weighted heavily towards value. Lets say for numbers sake we value 3bet an UTG
opener 80% of the time, and light 3bet 20%.
First lets assign our 3bet range:
Value:
AKo/s
AQo/s(situational)

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AJs(situational)
KQs (situational)
AA
KK
QQ
JJ(situational)
1010(situational)

When I say situational I mean that it is possible that 3betting with these hands is
marginal to the point where you are not clearly ahead of their range. That doesn’t mean
you shouldn’t 3bet them, it just means you shouldn’t do it every time and that you
should be more inclined to do it in position. A player that plays 14/12 and raises UTG
probably raises the top 8% of hands. The top 8% of hands looks like the following:
88+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo
The equity of these hands against this range are:
AQ (all combinations) 48%
AJs 41%
JJ 54%
1010 50%
KQs 38%

Whereas:
AA 85%
KK 72%
QQ 63%
AK 56%
Light 3bet hands:
56s-QJs
Axs (x should = 5 most often, as you will be able to flop gutshot+FD+over type
hands,but 4-10 are all fine as well)
22-77
KQo
AJo

It will generally be more profitable to call with small pairs preflop (as I will outline in post
flop chapters) however they can certainly make their way into a light 3bet category every
once and a while. You generally want to 3bet an UTG opener with 56-109s or Axs
because with the SC’s you will generally avoid second best hands and have tremendous
flop potential, and the Axs hands will block combinations of AA and AK (which will help
avoid him 4betting you) and also have tremendous flop potential. Avoid all other hands
as they will form second `best hands often and get you in marginal spots.

Anyway back to examining when to 3bet. We said we wanted to use an 80/20 ratio, 80
value, 20 bluffs. This means for every 4 times you 3bet an UTG opener with something
like AK or AA, you want to 3bet him once with 56s.

Stack Sizes:

Just like UTG you should also adjust your raising range based on stack sizes. As stacks
get shorter this scenario you should avoid hands like 22-66 and 98s, and instead
substitute in hands like KJo, QJo, A9s, A10o, because against these players you again are
simply looking for a top pair type hand to get it in against (These 40bb stack players will
generally be very bad and play poorly postflop getting it in with a wide range that doesn’t
include many top pair type hands) Though it should be made clear in the higher MSNL
and HSNL (medium and high stakes games) there are players who play a very tight and
solid short stack game that are more difficult to play against, however it is uncommon to

17
encounter one of these players anywhere below 3/6NL.

Cut Off

This is where poker will become more interesting. The cut off is the first position
considered late position and is a spot where you will more often than not, be in position.
There is a much bigger transition in our range from MP to CO, as will be shown in our
hand selection. The cut off is one of your most profitable positions, second only to the
button. This position is where you will start isolating weak players that limp, and 3betting
players to keep the pressure on. Lets get to our range:
22+ (all pairs)
A5s+
A9o+
65s+
J10o+
Q10o+
K10o/K9s
108s+ (suited one gapers)
Q9s+ (suited two gapers)
Roughly 23% of total hands.

The idea here is to steal blinds and isolate limpers. If you successfully steal someone’s
blind you have earned 1.5BB’s (big blinds). If you beat a game for 5 PTBB (poker tracker
big bets, or two big blinds) you will notice that you earn .1BB per hand. That means that
stealing blinds earns you 15 times the average profit per hand. Beginning to understand
why it’s so important and profitable? Lets focus on adjusting.

Loose games:

Believe it or not but playing from the CO in loose games is more tricky than tight when it
comes to isolating. In a tight game you can raise anything and most decisions will be
easy. In a loose game you run the risk of playing a lot of pots with marginal hands and
(despite being IP) losing money. As you become better post flop you will have the
capacity to raise more and more hands from position to isolate limpers, but first we have
to examine situations where we should and should not isolate a player.
Lets imagine the following scenario:

You are in the CO with K9s, UTG who plays 38/10 limps (you’ve seen this player limp
UTG with KQo, and with K4s in LP), This player is on the passive side and folds to cbets
50% of the time. The button is a mediocre TAG playing 18/15 and doesn’t have a
penchant for 3betting light IP, though you have seen him do it. The blinds are two half
stacks playing 30-35% of their hands. What’s your play?

Fold ->[Although the player UTG is bad and limps a wide range we can be sure he’s at
the top of his limping range UTG and is aware of the significance of position. We also
know that he folds to 50% of cbets, and likely less when his range is strong (which it is
due to him being UTG). The button is of very little concern, but we know he’ll reraise us
with AQ+ and 1010+ and on rare occasion with a bluff, so this is something to consider.
The second biggest concern of the hand is the shorties in the blinds. They play way too
many hands and don’t care about position. Without flopping sometime strong it will be
hard to play against these players as they will regularly be out of line. You have a hand
with some potential, as it is suited, however implied odds come from deep stacks, not
short ones. This compounded with dealing with a player limp-calling UTG is problematic
because it is very possible you will be three way to the flop.]

Let’s examine another situation:

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You are in the CO with 65s, MP limps, he has a full stack and plays 25/12, with a fold to
cbet of 66%. The button is a 20/10 weaktight player. The blinds have one good winning
TAG who 3bets too much OOP and one donk who plays big pots with marginal hands too
often, and has between 140 and 180BB’s, and you cover.

Raise ->[ You definitely want to raise to isolate the player in MP who is definitely weak
tight. His fold to cbet is on the low end as far as weak tight goes, but you have full stacks
and position, combined with a hand with major potential is a very profitable situation. We
don’t want the button to come along, but if he does we still can represent something
cbetting the flop, and we also have major flop potential if the flop comes our way. The
TAG who 3bets too much is kind of problematic, but this is a situation where once and a
while we can call and bluff some flops, if need be. The other great feature of this hand is
the weak player in the blinds who we cover. We will have position on this guy with
amazing implied odds, so we definitely don’t mind if he comes in.]

If a player calls too much after the flop you want to lean towards raising something like
K9s, instead of 65s, unless you are 100bb+ with that player. General against these guys
you can milk them with strong pairs/draws, so it supports raising a Kx hand that can
make strong pairs. In the first scenario we didn’t raise K9s due to short stacks, but that
was only because we we’re afraid that UTG would also come along with a hand that
might dominate us, also we’d rather have 65s in a multiway pot, as opposed to k9s with
much less potential postflop. It may seem somewhat counter intuitive and as if I was
contradicting myself, but focus on each facet of the hand and how one hand can be a
more profitable raise than the other, if they are in fact profitable at all. FWIW I’d rather
raise 65s in the first scenario, though its close between raising and folding.
Lets focus on a scenario where it would be preferable to isolate with K9s/K10o/A9o, etc.

You are in the CO with A9o, MP limps, he has between 75 and 100BB’s and plays 40-
50/5-15. The button is a tight player, and the blinds are also on the somewhat tight side,
maybe playing as many as 35% of hands, but less OOP. This player folds to cbet 70%+
of the time. [As his fold to cbet increase, so should your isolating range, and visca versa]

Button:

Button is the most fun and interesting position to be in. There are more opertunities to
raise, 3bet, isolate and cold call than any other position. You will play loosest on the
button. Your button raising range can be very wide or very tight, it really is all about the
game you are in. It is very possible to raise 50% of your hands on the button, profitably.
Lets get into the range:
22+
A8o+
K9o
Q9o+ (offsuit 2 gapper)
J9o+(offsuit 1 gapper)
98o+
54s+
64s+
96s+
106s+
K8s
A2s+

This entire book is going to try to teach you how to make decisions by yourself, through
detailed explanation and examples. This range is very tentative, it can be widened and

19
tightened by as much as 15% based on your table.

Looser games:

The button is so complicated that I want to give you some very straightforward
guidelines and let you come to your own conclusions as to whether or not a button raise
is profitable. Anything you would raise from MP you can open or even isolate OTB. The
other hands will put you to decisions in loose games. In loose games where there are a
lot of limp-calls you want to avoid things like 64s or 98o. If for the most part you can
isolate the one donk who is limp-calling lean towards a K9s or a J9o. In the event that
people are loose by will limp-fold with a decent frequency you can use almost the entire
range, maybe cut out 2% of hands or so, just the bottom of the range (64s-86s, A8A9o,
106s-Q9s, 54s-76s, A2-4s, etc) If you prefer some hands and dislike others that’s fine,
earlier analysis should provide examples of how certain hands are easier to play/more
profitable than others in certain situations. In the event people are limp-calling or there
are frequently multi-way flops (3 or more players) you need to really cut it down, raise
maybe a tight CO range and raise it bigger, it’s okay to make it 5bbs+1 for each limper,
in these games people will tend not to notice or care.

Tighter Games:

These are far more interesting. As the game gets tighter and there’s less limping or
people limp-fold or play weakly you can really open up. The most important factor when
opening the button is the blinds tightness. Most TAGs (tight-aggressive player) will be
very tight OOP, this means that on the button you can profitably raise just about any two
suited cards, any ace, and medium offsuit cards (though, these less than anything). The
idea here is that players will just willingly give up 90% of their hands, and even if they
do make it to the flop we will have position. I think for the most part tight players are
going to limp strictly small pairs, suited connectors, and KQ type hands from early
position. Take this into account, these types of hands are hit or miss, they will c/f the
flop or try and play a big hand with these, which makes it easy on us b/c if we are weak
we can give up our hand with ease, it lets us select when we want to play big pots with
opponents. I am far more inclined to isolate a weak tight player with a marginal hand,
than a loose/passive player.

Stack sizes:

Like most things as stack sizes grow so does opening range and your strategy. I just said
“. I am far more inclined to isolate a weak tight player with a marginal hand, than a
loose/passive player.” In the event I am deep (200BB+) this equation changes and I
would Instead rather play with a loose/passive type because I know that all my two-
pair+ type hands can really get paid off by these guys, and I can also cbet/extract with 1
or no pair type hands. Same thing if you want to open into Looser blinds, you can raise
the entire range plus more with marginal hands because you will have position and an
unlikely holding that has tremendous potential and will often be a disguised hand. As
stack sizes shrink, avoid 64s type hands, and embrace K8s or A9o, as they are the bread
and butter of the bottom of your range.

You should focus on trying to raise when a loose player limps and there are tight players
to act behind you (all of these situations are talking about marginal hands, your core
range should always be raised).
So lets say a 40/20/1 limps in MP, you are OTB with 57s, he has about 110BB’s and you
cover. The blinds are a nit and a 29/14 that folds BB to steal often (this is a statistic you
should be using) You can for sure profitably raise your 75s, probably 90BB+ in this
situation (effective stacks). In the event that the BB plays 40% of his hands and the SB

20
is a 20/18 tag, you should raise this hand less often.

Understand that these situations are fictional, real poker at a table online is completely
different from table to table, each one unique, just focus on every factor, for example the
loose player in the BB. He makes you want to raise this hand less often, but let’s say the
limp folds to 90% of cbets, that makes you more inclined to raise. Consider all these
things when making your decision, and then come up with a solution (to raise or fold).
FWIW if someone folds 90% of cbets I’ll isolate them VERY loose, almost regardless of
other players in the hand, unless the blinds are two loose shorties or something of this
nature.

3betting:

Here your range is also the widest. You want to 3bet on the button far more than any
position (go after people in position, not OOP). Here you probably want your ratio to be
3:2, so for every 3 value 3bets, you throw in two bluffs. This equation changes against
more adept opponents that will really play back at you and go after you preflop or after
the flop, but until an opponent shows a willingness to combat our strategy, continue to
exploit his weak play and keep the pressure on. When 3betting you must first consider
position, the CO is when our opponents range is the widest, and the position we 3bet this
player the most. The second thing (but most important thing) is the % of hands this
player raises. This was discussed in an earlier street, but the general idea is that the
more raises this player makes the more we can 3bet, however players that raise way too
much, say a 38/26, avoid 65s and lean towards AJo, these players will frequently see the
flop with you and you want to show up with a strong pair type hand. The third part of the
equation is history. If a player keeps folding to 3bets or c/f’s every missed flop continue
to pound on him. If a player is good and willing to 4b bluff or c/r a flop with a draw or
complete air, avoid bluffing so much and lean towards more value 3bets. Almost any
range, ratio, principal, idea or strategy in this book can be manipulated to exploit your
opponent, you just have to analyze his play and come to conclusions about how he plays,
then figure out how to exploit it (a simple example of this is someone who 3bets 80%+
of hands, here you c/r this player with air to exploit him cbetting so often with marginal
holdings, thus exploiting him and making you money. It also makes you harder to play
against and helps your made hands get paid off by weak holdings)

Flop Play:

A. Cbetting
Continuation betting is one of the most important elements of your strategy, it allows
you to win a wealth of small pots and makes you difficult to play against if executed
correctly.
Let’s focus on situations to profitably cbet:
1. The first scenario is the easiest to understand and grasp, any opponent with a high
fold to cbet (70% or higher), you can cbet basically your entire range profitably. When
cbetting you want to have some hope for your hand, i.e. cbetting 98s on 552 is generally
something you want to avoid doing, except against these players. There are three
instances where I do not cbet against these players:

A. They are short and my hand has very little potential, which worries me, (i.e. 98s on
552, or 22 on 1098)

B. I have a note that says when I do not cbet they go bluff crazy, in these spots I’ll check
very strong hands like 99 on 922 flop or something of this nature. (FWIW never check 99
on something like 974cc, anything with texture like this, even if they do go bluff crazy
when you check flops). Another situation I would check would be something like AK or AA

21
on K52, K22, K94 (rainbow, bet all flops with any FD).

C. I have QQ on K52r (Or any second pair type hand where you are in a WA (way
ahead)/WB (way behind) situation, where by checking you can get value from like 77 (on
this board) on later streets. Other WA/WB situations include like 1010 on Q77, or A2 on
AK6.

2. Now lets focus on loose/bad players that are calling way too many cbets (calling way
too much in general). Lets assume they fold to cbet 50% or less of the time. Against
these players you have to be more cautious and give things up more easily, Before I go
forward I want to interject and mention that:

You generally want to be cbetting almost every single Ace or King high board, as players
will view your range weighted towards these types of hands (and coincidently they will
not have these types of hands very often) and will give you extraordinary amount of
credit. Even against two opponents I would cbet the vast major of Ace and King high
boards (pending stack sizes and notes), however anything more than two I wouldn’t get
fancy, but that doesn’t mean I check when I do hit.

This is somewhat contrary to what I’ve been describing about how to play against these
types of players (being very close to the vest), but on occasion you are missing value by
not double or triple barreling these types of players. For the most part I’m not going to
indulge in any complicated triple barrel spots, so for instance say we raise in EP (early
position) and cbet a AQ4 (two flush or rainbow) and get instantly called by a player
playing somewhere between 30-45% of his hands and folds to very few cbets (as
described earlier). One of my favorite indicators for a good double/triple barrel spots is
the SNAP flop call. This can never be a big hand (or very rarely) because if he does have
AQ or 44 (and in some instances A4), he would at least have to think momentarily about
his action, whether to raise or just smooth call. By instantly calling (btw this is something
you should focus on avoiding, a lot of information can be drawn on timing) he’s basically
telling you “My range here is some A7 type hand, or a draw”. Pending some read that
this player will never ever fold TP (which is uncommon for the games you’ll play in, for
the most part these loose/bad players will not be stacking off with marginal 1pair in this
particularly type of situation) you will be able to profitably double or triple barrel. In this
situation I would most love to have a gutshot or FD myself (against these players I’ll put
a lot of pressure on with FD’s, FD=flush draw) so you have some equity. Anyway the
point is put the pressure on, if they are going to snap call your flop bet and have a range
that is for the most part on the weak side (in this instance the strong hands he could
have are AQ, 44, and A4, however is calling range is MUCH wider) put the pressure on.
Don’t be surprised if he takes a while to call the turn, if hes a particularly weak player
this will rarely be him trying to disguise his very strong hand inducing a triple, it will be
him genuinely weak trying to figure out whether to call or fold, If this is the case I
probably fire a river barrel.

Also if you have the opportunity to bet something like $99 or $199 on the river or
something I suggest it, this bet size will terrify them.

Anyway when thinking about theory/strategy of approaching these call-too-many cbet

type players, the simple answer is to tighten your range (which widens/tightens based on
stacksizes, don’t forget) and simply c/f the flop. There are situations I don’t mind a c/c or
a vbet with like A10+ or something, so say the board is like 1099, some loose guy calls
OOP, I don’t mind cbetting AJ here because him having a better hand is rarely, and if he
has some under pair his equity sucks. Also say I’m like BvB with AK on 332 (I’m SB)
against one of these guys, I will probably c/c this board, and pending a read c/c or c/f
turn (your default is fold until he proves that he will put you on AK in this types of
situations and try to take you off of it)

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3. Ok, so we’ve talked about weak-tight and loose-passive type of players and what our
cbet tendencies should be, now lets get to the fun stuff, TAGs. These will generally be
your toughest opponents (even if they are bad TAGs), these are the types of players
where we like to mix up our play and throw in curve balls from time to time. Agaisnt
these guys I’ll cbet just about every ace and king high flop, because their preflop calling
range is rarely going to contain TP, unless its like they flatted AJ or KQ or something, but
instead their range is weighted to small pairs and suited connectors (FWIW a pair has a 1
in 9 chance of flopping a set). There is danger here, against your better/more thinking
opponents simply cbetting will not be enough. I remember playing against a player at
FTP 200 who played something like 21/18 and played me tough/tricky. He definitely love
to go after me and my cbets. Anyway I raised 98s from the SB and he called in the BB.
The flop came K85r. I cbet $8 (4 BB’s), he raised to $32. This is a very suspicious line
from him, if he had any king it doesn’t really make sense because we didn’t have enough
history for me to get it in with anything worse than a strong king, so this isn’t really a
possibility. The flop was rainbow so he can’t be semi-bluffing anything but a 76, and the
only made hand he reps is 55 and far less often 88. Anyway In this situation my
opponent is likely bluffing because his range contains very few made hands, now I did
like the fact that I had 98 because if he does have 67 I have the best hand and a
blocker, or if he has something really weird like KQ or 77 I have the equity/the best hand
(however this is a small factor in my thought process). Anyway I discourage calling
because then you are in a very marginal OOP spot and you don’t have the initiative in the
hand, which makes your hand have less value intrinsically (Initiative simply means that
you were the last person to bet/raise). So the simple answer Is that it is profitable to
3b/fold in this situation given the information (this is the yeti-theorem , which states that
a 3bet on a dry board is always a bluff, and in this situations it kind of is, however we
think we’re bluffing with the best hand) I 3bet to $76 and he folded quickly, so our
analysis was very likely correct as we ran into the majority of his range in this spot
(bluffs). You probably won’t have a ton of history with TAGs (when it comes to cbetting
and stuff) because your game selection should for the most part allow you to avoid these
guys (you aren’t trying to avoid them, we would rather exploit them, but we want to
exploit everyone we play, and fish are simply more exploitable and more profitable).

Out of position you generally want to just bet your entire range (made hands, semibluffs,
second pairs and bluffs), I remember recently watching a hand with Krantz and
Peachykeen where peachy raised UTG and Krantz called in MP. The flop came K74r,
peachy c/r’d the flop, and krantz shoved. Peachy had AK and Krantz had KQ. There is
clearly a lot more here than meets the eye and a ton of history, but nothing about this
makes sense or is any sort of standard, you will never run into a situation at anywhere
below $1000 where this is even remotely necessary, so out of position just cbet your
range. (FWIW its ok to c/f like AK on 765 or something, against these guys you want to
be more cautious about cbetting marginally, just look at their fold to cbet, if its low give
up more and if its high go after them more, simple right=D). Also keep diligent notes
about how they react to cbets so that you can adjust accordingly. In position it becomes
more interesting, IP I mix it up a lot and check tons of flops back, particularly when I’m
marginal (this is called polarizing your range, which for the purpose of most MSNL games
and lower is OK, but fundamentally against tough opponents is bad because its
exploitable if they figure out what your doing. For the most part your opponents here will
not). What I mean when I say I want to polarize my range is that say I raise A2cc OTB
and the BB (TAG) calls. The flop is AK5r and he checks, this is a great situation to check
it back. It’s going to be very unlikely that he will ever call will a worse hand, and we will
occasionally be c/r’d off the best hand and we will miss value from something like KQ or
88(if its suited I will on occasion still check it back, just less frequently). Anyway this is a
great spot to check it back and maybe fire the turn. If the turn is something like a King
or 5 I will probably check it again because nothing about this board has really changed
and it will still be difficult to extract, I’ll probably just vbet the river. I would probably
play QQ the same way, or I might just check it down depending if my opponent does or
does not have the capacity to call with worse, fwiw if something like a K or A peels on the

23
turn or river you should be more inclined to bet because its unlikely he’s checking trips
and its very likely he thinks you don’t have trips either, so he might make a marginal call
down. Against very tough player you will occasionally be river c/r’d with a range of
trips/bluffs, but this is very uncommon amongst even good players at these stakes.

Check-Raising:

Let’s now focus on the flop check-raise. For the most part you have probably already
cultivated an aggressive image by 3-betting your opponents, so now lets suppose you
slow it down and coldcall preflop. For the most part when we check raise it will mean that
we have defended our blinds. Lets look at c/r situations: (For these situations lets
assume we’re up against a LP TAG opener who plays somewhere between 23/18 and
20/15.

1. Say we flatcall with something like 33 from a CO open. The flop comes 1053r. This is
not a good spot to check raise unless one of the following two conditions are met:

A. You have a reason to believe that the villain is bad and spewy and will always put in
way too much money with a TP or overpair type hand, especially if you play your hand
fast.

B. You have a history of check-raising dry boards against a decent-good opponent and he
has reason to believe you are doing it with air frequently, so we c/r with a monster to
balance our range.
Both of this scenario’s require us to have some sort of read or note on an opponent, so
lets assume we are just vaguely familiar with how he plays and we have his stats. You
want to avoid check-raising these spots, with strong hands because you are polarizing
your range between air/sets and it will be difficult to get paid. Since we probably will peel
(check/call) a hand like A10 or 88 (pending history, as you build history you could c/r
something like TP on this board for value) we want to simply c/c our entire range (of
course not bluffs, it’s probably a good idea to fire away a c/r with something like QJss on
this board because you have backdoor straight draws, potentially a backdoor flush draw,
and two overcards, it is a good idea to go after your opponents without history in these
spots because they will have to be very spewy to continue with most of their cbetting
range and worst case scenario you develop an image that you like to c/r bluff which we
can later exploit by c/ring with big hands). Anyway the point is when you flop a monster
on a dry board start by check-calling, and go from there.

2. This was mentioned in example one but now lets say we have QJss or 76ss on 1053r
(one spade). Assume same type of villain, this is a great check-raise spot because we
have backdoor draws or a gutshot, and because our opponent will also have a tough time
having a hand strong enough to continue with on this flop. Be more and more inclined to
make these sort of bluff c/r’s against players that cbet a lot, really anything greater than
70% and you can for sure do it fairly often, as their cbet % decreases so should your c/r
frequency. History also plays a roll, if he gave up the first time, do it again, put him to
the test and make him adjust or just get run over. If he has seen you do it and is inclined
to not give credit then change gears and just c/f and let him have it. Also you should see
an increase in success of these types of plays in multiway pots. So say for example you
have been really going after a guy preflop and decide not to squeeze so you overcall
something like A5s. The flop comes 732r, you check, the PFR cbet, whoever called
preflop comes along, you should c/r this spot, you have assumably backdoor flush outs,
an overcard, and a gutshot. Not to mention a ton of FE, and it appears as though you
have to have a huge hand because you just c/r’d a particularly dry board into two
players. The risk you run is the overcaller having a set on this board, however this will
generally be unlikely and in the event that he does we should have a little bit of equity.
(FWIW it’s a c/r, fold to 3bet, we obviously don’t want to put our money in with ace high

24
and a gutshot) As far as bet sizes go, for the first scenario lets assume your opponent
cbets 6bb’s into 8bb’s, you should c/r to 18bb’s with everything. In the second scenario,
lets say your opponent cbets 8bb’s into 10bb’s, someone calls, you should c/r to 30bb’s
with your entire range (this is to keep it consistent and avoid giving away something on
bet sizing). These are rough numbers, just keep it somewhere within this range and you
should be fine.

3. Now lets imagine we flop a made hand on a drawy board, say we have 87 or 55 on
965dd. In this situation we instead want to play our hand quickly and c/r (as discussed
previously, big hands should be slowplayed on dry boards), but on boards with draws and
texture we should opt to play our hands quickly, our opponents will be far more incline to
play their 1 pair/big draw type hands fast to maximize fold equity, and since they have
none and we are way ahead we want to get the money in now. These boards should on
occasion also be c/r’d with draws, but keep in mind that depending upon the opponent
you should likely weight your range towards made hand, rather than draws, as you will
likely be getting money in behind/flipping most of the time, and there is likely a more
optimal way to play your draw (FWIW big draws should likely be played for a c/r, for
example 98dd on 762dd, whereas 109dd should be played for a c/c on 742dd [unless
your opponent folds to c/rs more than most, in which case exploit this by c/ring draws
and stone bluffs, and probably c/c most big hands, unless you’ve really been going after
him and you suspect he is sick of you]).

Float:

1. Lets first focus on floating with over cards. First of all we will never float OOP, it’s way
too tricky and complicated, its just –ev. This means all of our floats will be done in
position. What we do by floating is calling with a marginal type of hands with the
intention of winning the hand on later streets. If we never floated people could just
simply cbet every flop and give up because he knew he wasn’t good on the turn and
would make us very easy to play against. When someone cbets and you are in position
you can raise, call or fold. We want to balance each range and raising certain situations
simply isn’t a good idea because our opponents will realize we raise bluff too often and
we are basically giving him a free pass to 3bet bluff us, or do so with a marginal hand.
Also by raising certain situations we give away the opportunity of a free card to make our
hand. Anyway lets suppose MP or CO opens and we call IP with QJss. The flop comes
1084r (with or without a spade). Our opponent is a normal TAG and cbets, which he will
likely do with a big part of his range. Lets say on average he opens 20% of hands from
these positions (combined, more from CO and less from MP).

Lets see what his range looks like at best in relation to this board:
22+,A8s+,KTs+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo +,JTo
There are a lot of 1pair or no pair hands in there. This is also a fairly conservative
estimate, so if this is the top of his range we can certainly peel. So lets say we call his
cbet and the turn is a brick, a deuce or 6 or 4, whatever, he checks. Now we execute our
float and bet 60-75% of pot. He will generally be c/ring or c/fing this spot, leaning
towards folding, if he check/calls who knows, he probably has like 109 or 99 or
something, but I would probably just give up unless you are sure he has some under
pair, in which case bet the turn and river (FWIW you should do this with made hands like
A10 as well to valuetown him).

Ok now lets suppose we hit our gin card, 9. Again if he checks we have no option but to
bet and hope he c/r’s for us to shove over. If he bets again it is probably because he has
a strong hand, and at this point I would probably just put in a medium sized raise, so say
he cbets 15bb’s into 22 or so on the turn, I would likely make it 40bb’s to entice him to
come along with something like JJ or QQ, or to hopefully reshove a worse made h and. In

25
the event that I know my opponent is spewy or will make loose triple barrels calling is
best, but raising is probably a good default. Lets now suppose we hit something like the
A or K of spades. In this spot if he bets again you should just call, in the event that he is
doubling representing this card we still can take the pot away on the river if he checks,
and if he has this one pair hand its probable that he will want to go with it after making
TPTK. FWIW raising isn’t a bad play, however it is high variance, and without a read as to
his double barreling tendencies calling is likely best because if god forbid we do hit we
can definitely get paid off on the river. If he’s super aggressive, definitely raise this
situation. Now lets suppose we hit a Q or J, and he bets, just call again and figure out
what to on the river UI, you will likely have to fold unless the player is unusually out of
line (to a triple barrel, though if he gives you a pass like betting half pot on the river,
look it up and figure out what he’s doing). Let’s now suppose he checks, just like when
we were going to bet the turn if we missed we bet with made hands, some players will
check call something like 10x or 99 on this board (which is bad) and we should certainly
be looking to value town these guys. Fold if c/r’d pending a phenomenal read. I should
mention that despite this board is rainbow you can also float something with like a flush
draw, so let’s say for example the flop comes 10d8c3d, you can still float this board, and
however realize that on later streets you need to bluff-represent the flush to make this
profitable. It is more tricky and should be played around with a little, try not to get crazy
with this because it is a bit higher variance but it’s certainly a good play if you can
become comfortable representing the flush on later streets.

2. Now lets say we have 109s in this situation and the board is A72r or K85r, since we
know our opponents will cbet a ton of A and K high boards we should certainly throw in
floats, in these situations we have at least a back door straight draw, if not flush draw as
well, either way if checked to on the turn bet it 100% of the time (that’s why you floated
right?), and if he bets into you again just call if you pickup a draw. If you make middle
pair and he bets again it depends on him, if he thinks you are peeling the flop light (this
requires a read, don’t do this blindly) then you can peel another street, but never 3 UI
without a read. FWIW this hand with these flops is another good spot to bluffraise IP, I
don’t think either is preferential, you generally want to mix it up, if I had to assign a
frequency I would say raise 15%, float 35%, fold 50%.

26
Basic theory – expected value (matrix)

edited to fix glaring typo in 2nd example and to clear up AA v KK example - edits are in
italics (matrix128)

Expected Value - is commonly referrred to as EV.

from here on in positive Expected Value is +EV and negative Expected Value is -EV.

Poker is a game in which skill will beat luck every time assuming that you play for long
enough. While it's true that any two cards preflop can win any given individual hand and
that luck is a large part of this game if you hold any aspirations whatsoever to beat Poker
overany significant amount of time/hands you must learn to make +EV plays and not
make -EV plays.

EV is simply what you expect to make on average with any particular play.

here is a simple example

Hero(100BB) has A A and raises preflop to 4xBB from the CO.

Villain(100BB) calls from the BB and both see a HU flop of 9 3 6

Villain tells us he has black Kings (he's not lying) and then raises all-in and Hero calls.

Villain tables K K

(disregarding how good the play is in this hand) what is the EV of calling knowing we are
against specifically K K ?)

If we punch those numbers into Pokerstove we get this output..

Board: 9c 3d 6h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)

Hand 1: 08.3838 % 08.38% 00.00% { KcKs }
Hand 2: 91.6162 % 91.62% 00.00% { AcAs }

we can see here that if this hand goes to showdown (as it is going to) that Hero will win
on average ~92% of the time.

so if we run this hand 100 times Hero ought to expect win 92 times and lose 8 times.

there are ~200BB at stake so Hero wins 18400BB the 92 times his AA holds up - and
loses 1600BB the 8 times he loses the hand.

Total net win of 168BB/hand.

This play is +EV and has an EV of 168BB *every* time you make it.

It's important to note that EV and actual results can vary massivley over any short term
period. e.g. if we actually ran the hand above 100 times you might win all 100 times -

27
does this mean the EV has changed? or you might be unlucky and lose 25 times in 100 -
does this mean the play is now less EV? - no EV remains 168BB per hand. Everytime
you make this play you "earn" 168BB and the more times you repeat this the closer your
actual real results will get to the "perfect average" of winning 92% of the time.

Once you have played enough hands (an infinite amount) your total actual results will
equal the sum of all of the total EV of the plays you have made. The closer your total
number of hands gets to infinity the closer your actual results will get to this theoretical
figure. So in theory every time you make a -EV play and get chips in when you are an
underdog you a "losing money" regardless of the actual results of the hand - and
conversely everytime you get chips in when you are a favourite in a hand you are
winning money. If you added up all the "Sklansky Bucks" (theoretical EV money) you
made in the long run and compared this amount to your actual winrate - after playing an
infinite amount of hands these two numers will be identical - and the more hands you
play the closer these two numbers will get to each other.

Lets look at a more complicated example, in our simple example above we knew villains
exact hand before calling so we don't have to put him on a range (which affects the EV of
our play) in practice we never know what particular hand we are against when we make
our decisions. This is a real hand from my database.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: $27.85
UTG+1: $24.65
CO: $28.95
Button: $23.95
Hero: $25.15
BB: $27.80

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 2 2

UTG calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: J 2 5 ($1, 4 players)

Hero bets $1, BB raises to $3, UTG folds, Button calls, Hero raises to $8, BB raises all-in
$24.9,Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: 9 ($53.8, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $53.8)

River: 9 ($53.8, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $53.8)

Results:
Final pot: $53.8

- it's the flop action I am interested in here.

In real life we don't know what sepcific hand we are facing at the point in time where we
make a decision. What hand does BB have here? is my hand strong enough to call his all-
in? and how do we work out the EV of this play??

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The answer is to put BB on a range of hands - if we re-run this hand 1000 times say
sometimes he has AA and we are a huge favourite, sometimes he has 55 and we are a
huge underdog, he might also have JJ-KK, AJ,KJ,J2,52,J5, Ax , or he might be bluffing.
In this particular case his range is wide because there was no preflop raise. Also we are
not saying htat he will always play every hand in this range exactly this way - but that he
isn't playing any other hand apart from the ones in this range in this fashion.

Against most of these hands I am a favourite, and against some of them I am an

underdog. I have no way of knowing what hand he has and certainly don't have time at
the table to put the numbers into Pokerstove so we just make an educated guess.

I play using the general rule that I should never fold a flopped set for ~100BB. The
reason being that no matter the flop if we can get all the money in on the flop we are
almost always a favourite to win the hand at the showdown vs our opponents range of
hands.
So I happily call his all-in. But have I made a +EV play and will this earn me money in
the long run???

Lets put his range and my hand into pokerstove and see...

Board: Jc 2h 5h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)

Hand 1: 78.7155 % 78.72% 00.00% { 2d2s }
Hand 2: 21.2845 % 21.28% 00.00% { JJ+, 55, AhKh, AJs, J5s, J2s, Ts7s, 52s, AJo, J5o,
J2o, 52o }

(T7ss is included in this range to represent a bluff)

and the numbers say that on this wide range of hands my play is +EV and that calling his
all-in here means that vs that range I expect to win ~79% of the time.

The actual results don't matter, as long as my range is accurate, and what cards come
on the Turn or on the River don't matter either (as the decision is already made by then)
if I make this play everytime it is +EV and in the long run I expect to win ~170BB
everytime I make this play. As this play costs me 100BB to make I make a profit
everytime here of 70BB, whether BB shows me JJ for top set or A 8 for a busted
flush draw I still "gain" ~70BB everytime I make the play.

Whenever you determine at the table that a play is +EV you should make it EVERY time.
If you don't you are losing money in the long run. Do You See Why?

Ultimately it is EV that will decide what your true winrate is, you can't beat it, or get
around it in the long run eventually your total real results will match your expected
results.

Closely tied in with EV is variance - a lot of people misunderstand what variance is and
try to avoid it. But you shouldn't. The very very best players at poker don't care about
variance and try to make every single +EV play that they can (this is the main reason
why they are such big winners) Variance is simply how much your actual results can vary
from the statistical EV results in the short term. It's the reason that a 20x buyin roll is
recommended. So that you don't go broke in the short term making +EV plays that you
lose in the short term because the real results vary from the Expected results. Variance
is neither good or bad - and the bigger bankroll you have to absorb variance the more
you ought to be willing to risk on a marginal +EV play.

29
Lets say you determine that a play is +EV and you'll win 51% of the time, the more
money you stake on this play the more you stand to win in the long run. 51% of 200BB
is more than 51% of 20BB - though in the short term real results will vary lots and you
stand a great chance of losing this particular bet if you can afford it (have a large enough
bankroll) you should bet as much as you can on this 51% shot.

As a final thought here is an exercise you can try when you next get a big losing session.

Review all the hands in the session and for each hand you play work out a range of
hands for each villain, run the numbers into pokerstove and see how much you made in
EV.

I do this sometimes and often find out that I had a +EV session that in real results lost
me lots of real money. If most of the losiung sessions you have are +EV you are paying
well and eventually real results will catch up with your EV results and you will be a long
term winner, so despite losing now in the short term you can be happy that in the long
run you're still winning

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A FRAMEWORK FOR POKER STUDY (learnedfromtv)

Below is an essay I've written for my Carpal Tunnel post. It's long (> 2500 words for a
2500th post, I guess). I'm posting it in MTT, where I spent most of my time since joining
2p2, and in MSNL, where I have spent more time lately.

Introduction

Recently I have put some thought into strategies for studying poker, in particular NLHE.
It is frequently said that there are too many variables involved in the play of a hand for
anything resembling a formulaic, component-by-component analysis to be practical. I
agree with this, and agree that in even the simplest cases (short-stack push/fold
calculations, for example), there is a significant margin for error in the final result which
is due to necessarily imprecise assumptions about an opponent’s ranges.

So even if a poker hand is one giant math problem, complete with game theoretic
opponents who do a, b, and c x%, y%, and z% of the time, it’s an unsolvable problem.
That said, I think a lot can be learned from thinking about poker hands in terms of their
component variables, from thinking about the structure of that giant math problem and
how it could be solved if it were solvable. This essay is my attempt to categorize and
analyze those components. I call it a framework for poker study, because I think that one
good approach to getting better is to spend time away from the table focused on these
component variables one at a time, in order to be better prepared to think through all of
the relevant information when faced with decisions at the table.

Core Ideas

There are three core ideas with which I assume everyone is familiar – the concepts of pot
equity and Expected Value (EV), Sklansky’s Fundamental Theorem of Poker, and what I
will call “hand range calculus.”

Pot equity and EV are functions of basic probability and govern every action in a poker
game. Your hand has some % chance of winning the pot, the pot contains some amount
of money, so you have a claim of some part of the pot. Every bet you make is an
investment; you should bet when your expected return from the bet is larger than the
cost of the bet. The FTOP formalizes how to maximize your return in the special case of
complete information; every time you make a bet that maximizes expectation versus
your opponent’s actual hand, you win, every time your opponent fails to maximize his
expectation given your actual hand, you win. “Hand range calculus”, which is the form
most analyses take on these forums, acknowledges that poker is actually a game of
incomplete information, and attempts to define best actions in terms of maximizing
expectation versus the range of possible hands your opponent could have, in light of the
range of hands it is likely he thinks you have.

Because in every case, both you and your opponent have a specific hand, the FTOP is still
the final theoretical measure of what is profitable or unprofitable action. In practice,
however, we work with incomplete information; thus poker skill is a combination of the
ability to make best decisions within the context of “hand range calculus” and the ability
to read your opponents’ ranges better than they read yours.

Situational Factors

We all know that the proper play of a hand and the correct read on an opponent’s range
depends on a lot of situational factors. I think we are accustomed to thinking about these
factors in the context of whatever particular hand we are playing or analyzing, where

31
many relatively small factors accumulate to a read and a decision. The framework for
study that I suggest in this essay (and which I am following myself) is to separate the
most important situational factors and analyze them individually. The factors I want to
talk about are position, board texture, betting patterns, betting frequencies, pot size in
relation to stack size (there are two others I’m not going to cover but that I want to
mention – table image, and bet sizing, table image because it is obviously so important,
and bet sizing because I find it interesting. Maybe another time, this will be long enough
as is). All of these factors are interrelated, but by isolating them I hope to get a better
sense of the role each plays in the core goal we're all seeking - to maximize EV versus an
opponent’s range and know his range better than he knows yours.

Position

The most familiar, most analyzed, and easiest to understand situational factor is position.
Hand ranges automatically widen with better position. Not only does someone in position
have fewer people left to act and more information on that particular round, they and
their out-of-position opponents have the knowledge that the player with position on this
round will have position on future rounds. So CO and Button preflop raising ranges are
much wider, and in-position bettors on the postflop streets usually have wider ranges. A
20/12 is 7/5 UTG and 40/25 on the button, or whatever; if you check the flop first to act
in a three way pot, independent of any other knowledge, the Button is more likely to bet
than the guy in the middle; etc. I don’t think much more needs to be said about this, as
it is already built into every thought any of us has about the game. If position was all I
had to talk about, this essay wouldn’t be very useful. Onward.

Board Texture

This one is more interesting, and might make clearer what I’m getting at with the
“isolating situational factors” idea. Imagine a heads up raised pot with a dry ace-high
flop, Axy rainbow. You’ve probably played hundreds of hands that fit this description,
thousands, maybe. What percentage of the time does one of the two players have an
ace? How often can one of them beat AK? How often does someone bet this flop with less
than an ace? If you are called the raise and are in position, what percentage of the time
should you expect an honest opponent to bet into you? How much more frequently than
honest does he have to bet before you can exploit him by representing the ace? There’s a
whole game theory problem right here, on this simple board where the only hands people
“should” have to continue are TPTK-TPGK, sets, pocket pairs, and the rare two pair.

What about a medium two-tone flop, the kind with straight draws (T85 or 974). Now
there are lots of draws, combo draws, still sets, there are always sets, but now if you get
action that looks like a set, it might be a draw instead. What does a bet mean on this
flop? How different is that from what a bet means on an A-high flop? How often does
someone betting this flop have no pair? Compare a raiser betting this flop to the A-high
flop – how often should he bet, how often should he get called, raised?

Raised pot again, now K-high. Raiser is going to rep the K a lot, but have it less often
than he has the A on the A-high flop. How often should an “honest” raiser bet the flop,
allowing for bluffing as long as it isn’t done too frequently? How frequently is that?

Paired board, like J88, or JJ8. Now there are only 5 cards that could have hit the board,
instead of 9. Pocket pairs are stronger, the monsters are in plain sight. Same questions -
how often should this flop be bet, by what hands, how easy or hard is it to push someone
off a mediocre hand? Etc. etc.

How many flop textures are there? Dozens, hundreds even, and they all blend into each
other, but questions like “how often should the preflop raiser bet the ace”, and “how fast
should JJ play on a T85 two tone board” are things that are partly determined simply by

32
the kinds and number of hands that can like a given flop.

Betting Patterns

Because NLHE is a game where you can bet any amount at any time, it could feel like
there are a ton of ways to build a pot. In fact, especially among decent players, the same
patterns repeat themselves over and over. Think about how often a hand plays out like
this: preflop raise, call. Raiser bets, call. Raiser checks, caller bets, raiser folds. Or, raiser
in position, checked to the raiser, bet/call, turn goes check/check, OOP bets, raiser folds.
Or, raiser OOP, bet/call, check/check, bet/fold. Or bet/call, check/check, bet/call. Or
bet/raise/call, check/bet/fold. Or, checked to raiser, raiser bets, check-raise, raiser folds.

It’s easiest to categorize headsup pots this way, but patterns repeat themselves in
multiway pots also. Some patterns are more common than others. What I suggest is that
thinking about these patterns and the frequency with which they occur is instructive, for
two reasons. One, the patterns that occur most frequently are also the patterns that
match the most frequently occurring situations (weak to moderately strong hands
building and contesting a small to medium-sized pot). Two, the majority of profit comes
from creating large pots with big hands, which is easiest to get away with if done quietly.
Especially against good players, this can be very difficult.

Betting Frequencies

Under “betting patterns” I was talking about an observer’s view of all participants in a
hand, here I’m referring to the frequency with which individuals bet, call, fold, and raise.
There are big meta-theory questions here, like what % of the time should a preflop raiser
bet the flop (or optimal frequencies for any action sequence), but I am more talking
about things like “what % of the time do I (or this opponent, or that opponent) bet the
turn after having bet the flop and being called? What % do I bet three streets in a row?
What % do I bet two streets then check/fold? What % of the time do I check-raise the
flop, then bet the turn? Do I ever check-raise the flop, then check the turn? How often do
I call three barrels? How often do I follow up my turn bet with a river bet?

Clearly, the board often changes from flop to turn and turn to river. If the draw hits, and
you know 100% that your opponent was drawing, you should check/fold, and no
frequency mumbo-jumbo changes that. But since some of the time you should bet the
flop with that obvious draw and some of the time your opponent is calling without it, then
some of the time, you should follow up when it hits on the turn (whether you have it or
not). Etc. These are the things you start thinking about when you think about action
frequencies.

Are there optimal frequencies for all of these? Maybe, sort of, in a game-theoretic,
perfectly-playing opponent sense. Pots grow exponentially, so maybe in theory we should
bet the flop 75% of the time we raise, bet the turn 25% of the times we’re called and
50% of the time the flop checks through, and bet the river 10% of the time the turn is
called and 20% of the time the turn checks through, all with appropriate bluffs mixed in.
In practice, we set these frequencies to exploit specific opponents, but I think analyzing
these questions in general can help us understand how to do that.

Pot Size/Stack Size Dynamic

100xBB stacks. Limpy McLimper limps in front of you. He does this with 20% of his
hands and he never raises. You have two cards and raise. He calls and you see a flop
with 9 BB in the pot. How strong a hand do you need to play for 100BB? For 50? For 25?
Too broad a question? Dependent on too many other factors? Yes, of course. But
contrast: Same 100xBB stacks. Raisy McRaiser raises in front of you. He does this with
20% of his hands and he never limps. You reraise with the same two cards, he calls (he

33
calls raises as often as Limpy). 27 BB in the pot. Now how strong do you have to be to
play for it all? What size pot should you play, on average, with one pair? With a big
draw?

The only difference is that the pot is a bigger percentage of the stack. With more to fight
for, people’s ranges for postflop actions necessarily should change toward being more
aggressive. If your opponents don’t make this adjustment, exploit them – reraise a lot,
then play aggressively, let them fold too much. If they do make this adjustment, you
have to adjust with them in reraised pots. Go broke with AA against Limpy, you’re
usually a fish, against Raisy, probably not.

The point is not that there is a formula for proper size pot with xx on flop abc in terms of
preflop pot size “AA is worth 3x preflop pot size”. Clearly there isn’t. There may be times
to fold a set in a reraised pot and times to felt middle pair in a limped pot. But on every
flop, you should be able to look at the pot size, look at the stack sizes, and have some
general idea of what kind of hands should be willing to play for how much. Sure, that
general idea has to be adjusted based on all of the other situational factors, but it plays
its role too.

Obviously, in MTT’s, pot/stack dynamic is always present because of increasing blinds

and variance in the size of opponent’s stacks. I find the 30-40xBB range particularly
interesting, because it is a time when raisers with one pair have a hard time folding, but
callers with speculative hands still have odds to call and try to outflop (also because allin
reraises are too overaggressive in this stage and easily exploitable). This generates a
cat-and-mouse game where you have to accompany the raising hands you do plan to go
broke with hands you don’t plan to go broke with in order to deny implied odds to
speculative hands. But do too much of this, and you become vulnerable to preflop
reraises. Also, in MTT's, a significant shift in pot size/stack size ratio happens when antes
are introduced. There is more to fight for, so ranges change and more aggressive play is
rewarded. In cash games, where stacks are usually 100x and there aren't antes, this
dynamic shows up more in the differences between limped pots, raised pots, and
reraised pots.

All this theory in practice

A short, simple example. Someone raises UTG+1, Button calls, you call in the BB with
55. The flop contains a 5. Before you say “lead” or “check,” you have to consider

-the range the raiser raises from that position

-how likely the particular flop is to have hit that range (AQ5? T85? 522?)
-what betting pattern is most likely to create a large pot without tipping anyone off that
you want a large pot
-how likely the raiser is bet the flop if checked to, raise if bet into, how likely the other
caller is to be trapped with a marginal hand, how often the raiser will follow up on the
turn with a marginal hand, how often he’ll give up the lead if you show flop aggression,
etc., etc.
-what the stack sizes are and how likely your opponents are to have a hand that is willing
to play a large pot.

All I am arguing in this essay is you will be better prepared to make the best decisions if
you have thought independently about how different board textures play, about the
amount of strength different betting patterns represent, about how to play versus
different betting frequencies, about how ranges and betting frequencies change in vs out
of position, and so on.

Clearly, there are plenty of other factors that I didn’t discuss, like table image, what
various bet sizes mean, how sure you are that you're ahead (or behind), how easily you

34
can improve, how vulnerable your hand is to the type of hands that are willing to play
with you, how likely you are to end up paying off a second best hand if someone catches
you. I don’t pretend this covers everything it could cover, or even close, but this is what
I’m thinking about right now.

I hope this is useful/thought-provoking to some of you, and that some of the many of
you who are better than me will take the time to comment.

35
What matters, What doesn't (cbloom)

Well, I never made a "Poob" and I'm coming up on my Carpal Tunnel so I figured I better
get this in first.

I thought I'd drop some thoughts on what really matters in being a winning player. I've
almost reached 100k hands at about 8 PTBB/100. I've struggled with questioning my
game, downswings, taking breaks; my win rate would be a lot better if not for some
stretches where I was way off my "A" game, so I know what it's like to be a break-
even/losing player and where win rate really comes from.

The first thing is to remember that the goal : being a profitable player, not making fancy
moves, not doing what you're "supposed to", not being super-aggressive like you think
you should be. Whatever it takes for you to be a winner, do that. Secondly, most of the
things you need to be a winner are NOT strategy. Yes, read the forum, play hands, get
practice, work on your game, but assuming you've got the basics (and trust me, any
monkey can get the basics), strategy is probably not your problem.

What Matters :

1. Being on your "A" game. Poker is not easy. One of the traps I think we all fall into is
thinking that the fish are so bad, we can be on our B or C game and still be profitable.
Maybe we can tilt a bit and try to play through it. The fact is, that's not true. Beating the
rake is hard and you probably can't do it on your C game. Furthermore, being on your
"A" game is like a habit - you get in the groove and can keep it up. Once you start
playing your C game, you get used to that and before long you find you're playing your C
game all the time. It's better to just take a break when you're not on your A game and
try to only play in that state.

2. Not "spewing" - just throwing away money. This isn't just bluffing, it's folding decent
hands to tiny bets, folding monster hands because you imagine he has the nuts, etc.
Anybody who's struggling with their game - I gaurantee that "spewing" in one way or
another is a big part of it. If you really review your sessions you'll find hands where you
just threw away a lot of money. Playing vanilla good poker and eliminating major "spew"
will make a huge impact on your win rate. Note that "spew" can be subtle - not value
betting top pair on the river against a calling station is a form of spew; you had an
almost gauranteed big bet you could've made and you didn't.

3. Don't make the fish's mistakes correct. You should be playing most of your hands
against terrible players if you're using good game & seat selection. These terrible players
will do odd things, and you need to adjust properly. If you don't, you can make their
mistakes into good plays. When you bluff a calling station, you've turned the fish into a
better player than you. Most fishies have very high VPIP's, trying to get lucky on the flop.
You punish them by usually having better hands and charging them to see flops. You
turn them into experts if you pay them off when they hit. For example :

Fish UTG raises A 6 to 2 BB

You reraise K K to 12 BB
folds to Fish who calls

Flop 6 6 7
Fish checks
You bet pot
Fish pushes all in
You call!!!!

36
Oh no! you made the fishes -EV style of chasing flops into a profitable style.

What Doesn't :

1. "Tough" Decisions. If you're playing a hand and you hit a really really tough spot and
you just can't figure out what's the best move - it doesn't matter! If it's truly a tough
decision, that means the EV of the choices is nearly the same! Yes, you might lose a
huge pot because you made the wrong decision in this particular case, but if you're
thinking about the range of hands it was actually EV neutral. These sort of "tough"
decisions are fun to analyze because they're very close and complicated, but the fact is
they have almost zero effect on your win rate. You'll see these some times when you
post a hand and good/respected posters disagree about the best move. Maybe there is in
fact one move that's better than others, but it's a very small EV difference.

2. Little details about your play. Maybe you're 15% vpip, maybe you're 30% vpip. Maybe
you complete T7o in the SB, maybe you don't. Maybe you reraise a lot preflop, maybe
you don't. Again, these could be slightly +EV or slightly -EV, but the fact is, they have
almost zero effect on whether you're a big winner. What you should not do is play in a
way you're not comfortable with. Don't complete hands in the SB because you think you
should if you're not comfortable playing them postflop. Yes, maybe folding T9o in the SB
is a small leak, but it's a tiny tiny leak and not worth worrying about.

3. Marginal situations. You will run into lots and lots of marginal situations. You could fold
almost every one of them and it wouldn't hurt your win rate that much. On the other
hand, it's very easy to make a big mistake in a marginal situation, and that will hurt your
win rate a lot!! This is sort of like a reverse implied odds situation. It's almost never bad
to just be a wuss in these spots unless you do that too much. A lot of people are scared
of being "weak" or "easy to run over", but that's not really a problem unless someone
starts trying to do it, in which case you can try to trap them.

(synopsis for the tl;dr crowd : stop worrying about trivial details that don't affect your
win rate much; fix your big leaks and play solid)

37
6 Max fundamentals for SSNL players (Tien)

Some 6max Fundamentals

Now that I have decided to walk away from poker and pursue other ambitions, I have
decided to give something back to community that I have received so much from. This
comes from a player that played primarily (only) 6max 200NL, 400NL, and 600NL (when
the games were fishy).

One of the hardest things I had to learn was the fundamentals of 6 max and how to play
like a proper TAG for medium stakes. There is quite a lack of information on how to
properly play 6 max TAG and I am mostly appalled at how the lower stakes players are
completely missing out on the fundamentals. This post will merely cover the basics of 6
max, positional preflop play and image, and not quite on advanced play.

First thing I want to mention is position and the button. It is a no brainer to why position
is so important in NL. Being last to act simply gives you a world of advantage over your
opponents. That is why if you open up pokertracker and a large enough sample size, you
will see that the button and CO is the most profitable position to play in.

I would also like to make a note here that you should almost never open limp. Open
limping is just gross. Don't do it with suited connectors or whatnot. Raise rather than
limp. Take down the blinds and move on to next hand. Open limping in 6 max is a very
very big sin. DO NOT OPEN LIMP. Open raise.

For all you poker tracker statiticians out there, I play 22/18 and consider myself TAG.

When you are on the button and CO, consider yourself the gatekeeper. It is up to YOU to
decide whether or not people get to enter a pot cheaply or not. And hell, why let them
play out of position hands for cheap? Abuse the [censored] out of the button and CO.
True tags understand this concept and abuse the [censored] out of the button. Hands
that a true TAG will raise with if folded to them on the button / CO is: 22 -> AA, meaning
every single pocket pair, every single Axs, every single suited connector, and a HUGE
variety of high cards, A10o and better. That includes KJo, QJo. Hell, even any Axo if
folded to them.

The reason you MUST do this is because:

1) you steal the blinds if they all fold

2) if they call you, they are playing a raised pot out of position and you have the
advantage. Continuation betting with nothing often takes the pot down.
3) Flopping sets / monsters in unraised pots is basically a crap pot.
4) People are more likely to go broke on raised pots than unraised pots, they will bluff
you more and ship more money your way.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?578668

One example of why you need to raise. Would I have stacked him in an unraised pot?
Most likely not.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?578669

Another positional hand. If he doesn’t have an A, or draw, he folds to my raise. If he calls

my raise, I can check behind for a free card. This play is better than calling his flop bet.

38
Example:

UTG limps, folds to you on the CO, you have 22. What do you do?

Answer: RAISE. How much to raise, 4-5x BB is good.

Example 2:

UTG limps, MP limps, you hold 22 on the button. What do you do?

Answer: RAISE THAT [censored] UP

If they call, you will take it down often enough with a continuation bet to make it
profitable. And BTW, continuation bet 75-90% of the time. They will most likely fold a
hand that didn’t hit.

So now that you understand basic fundamental button and CO play. It is time to figure
out how to play UTG and MP.

UTG: You want to play real damn tight, fold suited connectors, fold high cards, fold Axs
hands. But continue to raise pocket pairs in ANY POSITION. Pocket pairs have the ability
to flop such powerful monsters that you just can’t fold them in any position. Raising
pocket pairs is so mandatory. Assume 100BB stacks. You raise 44 in MP and get reraised.
You call and flop comes 346, 2410, 410J, 345. You are stacking KK AA 100% of the time.
Don’t limp either. It is so transparent when a weaktight (who thinks he is a TAG) limps
UTG, and calls you raise. He has small pocket pair or suited connector 99% of the time.
Continue to raise AJo and better. Folding QKo and KJo, as well as QJo is not bad play at
all. These hands are pretty garbage out of position.

MP: You can still fold the QKo, KJo, or QJo, but start loosening up your standards. Start
mixing up raising or folding those Axs hands, suited connectors.

Blinds: You want to play real tight in the blinds. Calling too many raises out of position is
just a death trap. You don’t want to build big pots with marginal holdings in the blinds.
Fold suited connectors, Axs, call with pocket pairs obviously.

But just because you are playing tight in the blinds doesn’t mean you are a big sissy
either. Facing a button raise or an MP raise, if you hold hands like AK, AQ, JJ, 1010,
RERAISE. It’s much much better to reraise these hands in the blinds that many SSNL
players normally just call with.

Reraising these hands start to become advanced play so be careful. New players trying
these things out often lose stacks because they are out of position and are bad post flop
players.

Example:

You are in BB or SB with AK, AQ, JJ. UTG limps, MP limp, button limps. What do you do?

Answer: RAISE THAT [censored] UP. Raise it up to 6-7 even 8x bb depending on players.
Take down the pot without even seeing a flop is better than checking and playing a
multiway un raised pot.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?578721

39
Raising all these hands allows you to play raised pots against players that have no idea
of positional or image. You will stack them more often than not. And don’t sissy up on
continuation bets. Bet 75-90% of the time no matter board texture. Only if 2 people call
you and u completely missed the flop can you decide to check and give up on the pot.

Example:

You have A8s on the button, UTG limps, you raise 5x BB and get called by BB and UTG.
Flop comes 48Q rainbow. BET 100% of the time if checked to you.

That covers the BASICS of positional preflop play.

Combo Draws

Another thing which I think is standard to most people but may not, is combo draws.

Hands where you have say 13-15 outs on the flop should be taken to the felt.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?578686

Here is an example of properly playing a combo draw. Same goes with open ended
straight and flush draws. Play these hands strong and very fast. There is a ton of fold
equity as well as getting money in being a 50/50 if they do decide to take their hand to
the felt with you.

Best case scenario for the hand I played above is that everyone folds. Making them fold
in spots like this is what makes playing combo draws this way profitable. You don’t profit
by them calling a 50/50 shot. You profit making them fold.

I wanted to talk more about 2nd barrels, increasing range of reraising hands preflop, and
pot control, but that is a bit more advanced than the basics and maybe I’ll write
something later on.

In conclusion. Don’t make dramatically changes to your game. Start implementing one
concept at a time. Don’t start raising 6-7% more hands just because I told you. Start one
different hand at a time and slowly make changes.

I hope this helps the struggling low stakes player out there. If you keep these strategies
and tactics in mind, it will definitely improve your play.

40
Tien's Article on Mentality, Image, and changing gears
(Tien)

Ok, This is a follow up article to the last one I wrote:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...part=1&vc=1

I finally got around to writing this and will probably be the last one I write before I
disappear from the online poker world altogether.

Although I think this article should have been written before the first one, since I will talk
a lot about mentality which I feel is the most important thing a player needs to develop
first. I will mix up image in here somewhere too.

First though I would like to rant about a couple of things first before I really start.
Starting players hoping that they will make something out of this game really need to ask
themselves a question.

How badly do you really want it?

What it takes to continuously go from level to level in poker is an insane desire to

continuously challenge yourself and improve. You won’t go anywhere thinking how you
play right now is sufficient for whatever stakes. IMPROVE YOURSELF.

There is a huge growing army of 12 tabling hudbots continuously grinding away. Some of
them are improving, some of them are not. If you belong in the category of players who
don’t improve than you will be left in the dust. The games ARE getting tougher for those
who are NOT continuously improving. 1.5 years ago, I don’t think I even heard of
multitabling TAGs playing at 25/22 at Mid stakes with insane relentless post flop
aggression. Now, if you visit the mid stakes forums, it’s the norm.

Ok, so the first thing you need to change is your mentality. And by surfing these forums,
I can guess there are thousands of winning players who need a total mentality re-haul.
You may ask, but Tien, they are winning, what’s wrong with them?

My Answer: They still complain, whine and bitch about irrelevant things. They still get
angry and emotional when a doofus fish sucks them out when they are a 85% favourite.
They get frustrated and cry out to people who don’t even care saying how badly they are
taking it. It doesn’t make any [censored] sense whatsoever to complain about getting
sucked out. And if you are running bad, guess what, I DON’T [censored] CARE.

Poker player who needs a total mentality re-haul: “OMG MY AA JUST LOST TO 44 ALLIN
PREFLOP 134993024 TIMES TODAY, IM DOWN 15 BUYINS, OMG I CANT TAKE IT
ANYMORE”

My answer: “I don’t care”

Poker player who doesn’t need mentality re-haul, this time he is thinking to himself
whenever the following happens:

Loses AA vs KK allin pre 3423432 times. “Whatever I don’t give a [censored]”

Loses a bunch of coinflips on monster draws. “Whatever I don’t give a [censored]”

Loses a whole bunch of buyins. “It’s about time these weaksauce [censored] win
something from me”

41
You need to be cool and remain calm. Your reaction to winning a 200 BB pot should be
the same as the reaction to losing a 200BB pot.

Next time you complain to someone. Remember that deep down what they are really
thinking is “I don’t care”. Complaining serves no purpose whatsoever and should be
completely and 100% erased from your character. Getting sucked out and going on
downswings is the nature of the beast. It can’t happen any other way. How does
complaining or whining help you improve? It doesn’t. It makes you a worse player.

You can’t win if you don’t get sucked out.

You can’t improve if you never go on downswings.

You can’t succeed if you never fail.

Mentality change goes beyond complaining / whining / bitching. If you want to change
yourself from a weak tight player to an aggressive player (Notice TAG and LAG both have
the words aggressive in it) you need to change your mentality first. No matter how hard
you try to change something, if you don’t program it into your head, YOU WILL NOT
CHANGE.

You need to start to think aggressive every time you sit down in your sessions. Think
about opportunities to raise and re-raise and win pots. You need to have that image of a
player who is constantly raising and re-raising and instilling FEAR into the other players.

Don’t make sissy as hell bets and raises either. Every time you bet or raise, bet and raise
like you mean it. 2/3, to ¾ pot size bets to build big pots to stack people or make them
fold.

Again, for the mid stakes players nowadays, this is the NORM. For a lot of you starting
players out there, there is an entirely new concept that you NEED TO LEARN AND
IMPLEMENT.

I don’t want to get so much into post flop because that subject is really complex, but I’ll
give a couple of examples.

1) You raise 10Js on the button and some weaktight fish who limps before calls. Board
comes 48K rainbow and he donk bets into you meakly. Raise the [censored] out of him!
2) You raise A5s in middle position and flop comes 3s4sQx. You lead out and bet and get
miniraised or raised. RERAISE. You have 12 outs here and plenty of fold equity, ALLLIN.
3) You have 98s and raise in the button and some guy calls. Flop comes 7810 rainbow.
He leads into you. RAISE THAT [censored] UP.

Results in these hands don’t matter nor should you care if you lose being 40% dog or
whatever. You played these using concepts of fold equity properly.

These are just a couple of examples of what kind of an aggressive mentality you need to
have. Don’t take these examples in stone every single time, but the mentality behind
these examples is what you need. Once you change your mentality into the one proper
for poker, many many postflop decisions will become easy to you. I guarantee that.

On towards Image.

So what image do you really need? As mentioned before you need an image of a player
that the table is afraid to play against. And at small stakes NL, there are a bunch of weak
tight players waiting to be afraid of you. So go out there and instill fear into them! Play

42
solid positional aggressive poker. Look for spots to raise and re-raise in position holding
draws, marginal hands, etc etc.

Achieving that image cannot be done unless you yourself believe inside you possess that
image. What you think about yourself inside reflects a lot on how people think about you.
Again, this goes back to your mentality.

This type of image will also get you a lot of action too. You are in there building pots and
people will give you action in return. You don’t care about that because if you play solid
positional poker, you will have the advantage.

People will also give you their respect and fold to your bluffs or semi-bluffs. Don’t show
down a losing hand.

But once your image has been shot to [censored]. You’ve been caught bluffing or people
see you have been playing a lot of big pots lately and are starting to play back at you. It
is time to tighten up a bit. You can slow down on the cont bets if you feel these guys will
look you up with any 2 cards. You can also raise less in MP and UTG with marginal hands.

Once you feel you have been playing tight enough and showing a lot of aggression but
also showing down big hands, you can then again loosen up and become more
aggressive with marginal hands / bluffs.

That is changing gears. Reacting to your table dynamics and how you think people are
observing you.

In conclusion, this article again covers the BASICS of what I have been talking about.
Continue to go out there, post hands, discuss hands, observe hands. That’s what it takes
to improve.

And when you are done a session or whatever. Review your hands, post them, analyze,
observe etc etc etc. Lots of players are doing that right now, and they are improving.

Bah, I can review this a couple of times and make a better article but I’m really too lazy.
The most important point in this article is your mentality. I can’t stress that enough. An
aggressive mentality towards poker will continue to open countless opportunities, doors
and $$ in the world of poker.

Some important reads:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?
Cat=0&Number=5615820&an=0&page=0&vc=1

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...amp;o=&vc=1

43
Almost there with Success and Failure (Gigabet)

This post is in response to Irieguys Post "The Difference Between Success and Failure."
Here is the link http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?
Cat=&Number=1822484&page=1&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1

When I read Irieguys post I wasn't planning on responding, I rarely respond to posts,
because most of the time I am the dissenter, and frankly, it isn't good for my long term
financial situation. As I started reading the responses I soon felt obligated to respond. He
is so close, but travelling in the wrong direction.

The wording he uses in the text lets me know where he is at on the "path," so to
speak(the very beginning). Let me start with the words success and failure. These are
words that mean such different things to each individual that to use them to label your
accomplishments, or lackthereof, is setting yourself up for a long ardurous journey, that
most won't finish. Success and failure are just ideas created by society to improperly
judge others against ourselves. There are no successful people, or rather, using these
words, I should say that there are no failures and everyone is a success.

Quote:
Everybody will eventually run worse than they thought was possible. The difference between a
winner and a loser is that the latter thinks they do not deserve it.

This statement is truer than anyone can know(even though I think most of you do know,
it just seems impossible for me to believe that someone else can understand). What he
says about winners and losers though, will keep you from attaining a more complete
game. There are no winners or losers, to think that, is to let yourself be affected by
negative variance. If you are not in the positive for the day, then you therefore must be
a loser, and so the downward spiral begins. All of those negative ideas must be
eliminated from your mind, or you will not perform to your potential. The trick is
recognizing these negative ideas, since there are so many and so commonplace in our
society, it is a large task indeed to sort them out as real, or just ideas created by the
masses. Our labels for winners and losers simply identify individuals who play the same
game a different way. Just because one person doesn't achieve the same goal that I
strive for, doesn't make that person a "loser." Everyone is the same, and everyone has
the same potential, some just direct their energies in different directions. The sooner you
can get that into your head and really believe it, the sooner you will start to have a real
understanding of the game.

Quote:
I am beginning to realize that most people don't have the psychological fortitude or spiritual
perspective to manage the vicissitudes of this game. I also believe that of the very small
number of professional poker players who have been successful for more than a few years,
most of them are actually quite lucky. I believe that there are many pros who will fail once
they begin to experience average luck.

I really believe that everyone has the "psychological fortitude" to manage the vicissitudes
of the game. It is simply a choice. A choice to change the way you think about results.
Stop thinking in terms of winning as good and losing as bad. The two concepts should be

44
grouped in your mind exactly the same. When God "blessed" man with shame, failure
became a real entity we had to deal with. That is what we are trying to achieve when we
label a person as a failure, we are attaching shame to A meaningless act. Throughout my
life I have been around alot of people that most would classify as "failures" and not one
of them seemed any different than myself.

The problem comes to life when a person starts their downswing, which we classify as
"losing," they begin to suspect that they may "fail" and rather than become susceptible
to the shame that comes with "failure" they decide to quit. They stop because they fear
things that aren't even real. The people who come to realize these negative labels aren't
real, either concretely or intuitively, are the same people that do not give up, no matter
how bad things seem to be running. Eventually they become the "professionals" in
whatever walk of life they choose.

You have to find your own way to deal with these thoughts that have been brainwashed
into your mind for your whole life. Identifying every negative thought as it creeps into
your mind is a start, it takes practice to monitor your thoughts, but you cannot eliminate
what you do not recognize.

I try very hard not to allow any negativity in my life, ask my brother(ship_it_tome) how
upset I get when he is at my house, playing, struggling, for hours on end, and finally
says "I can't win." We get along very well, but I get very irate with him when he utters
those deadly words, as I am sure you all have muttered them at one time or another.

Quote:
I think you can learn how to avoid this trap of psychological betrayal. I think I'm beginning to
learn it myself. It involves turning your noise filter all the way up.

Turning your noise filter up will work for a time, but eventually it builds and seeps
through at one time or another, and everything that has been blocked comes pouring out
at once, which creates the very worst tilt imaginable. Believe me, I have been there
many times. I have come to realize that it is much better to acknowledge the negative or
angry thoughts as they arrive, that doesn't mean just noticing their presence, when they
approach, actually talk to your mind and announce their arrival, and then identify the
reasons behind them. As your mind comes to realize how trivial and meaningless these
thoughts are, it will eventually stop creating them in the first place. It takes alot of time
and effort to do this, but the long term results will be well worth it.

OK....SO HOW DOES ALL THIS REALLY RELATE TO POKER?

The game that most of us play is really very simple. You get 2 cards, 5 cards come up,
and you do a little betting here and there. Best 5 card hand wins.

With a game this simple, why do so many people have so much trouble ending up ahead
of where they started?

The real game is about people, not the cards in your hand. If you know a person well
enough, you can read their hand, and once you know what they have in their hand, the
game becomes a cakewalk. The problem is, we have all of these predisposed ideas of
who a person is based on ideas that have been placed in our heads by our society. You
have to be able to eliminate all of these ideas. Once you train yourself to be completely
judgement free, you will become a more complete player. Anyone can read a persons

45
hand based on his actions and seeing common tendencies, ie., a beginning player will
commonly bet small when on a draw, and bet big when he has a made hand. What about
more experienced players? What does it mean when they bet 2/3s of the pot one time,
and than bet pot the next? They are certainly experienced enough to know not to bet the
same pattern for the same types of hands. So how can you figure out what they have?
Well, get to know him, watch him play. Try and figure out what he is thinking, he has to
be thinking something. Put yourself in his spot, what kind of hand would you have if you
were betting like that?

Now do this for every hand for every player that is in the hand, for every player at the
table, for every table that you are playing at. Try and eight table while doing this
exercise. Put effort into every single hand that is played out at your table, not just the
ones you are involved in, every single hand. Every time there is a showdown, and the
losing hand is mucked, open up the hand history file, and see what he had. Go through
the hand again and see if you can figure out why he willingly showed down a losing
hand(something that should rarely be done.)

I call this an exercise, but this should be done on every single hand that is played out at
any of your tables for the rest of your poker career. This is how you become a real
player, then you can ignore the "sng" formula and really start to play. Post flop is where
the real game is at, and it is fun to play. Use your bets to pull information from your
opponent, and then when you know what he has, trust your judgement 100%. If you
think he is on second pair, but will not fold unless you bet your whole stack, then bet
your whole stack(unless of course you have a better hand than second pair, which is
unlikely since players like us can rarely beat bottom pair), even if it means your
tournament is over if you are wrong. Practice trusting yourself, you will be wrong enough
in the beginning to doubt yourself, but don't let that stop you.

There is a strong possibility that I am the most active player in the world, and I can
honestly say that this is something that I do on nearly every hand. Imagine, 6000 hands
a day on average, just watching and learning, with no predisposed judgements of the
other players. This is what it takes. Bad beats are no longer bad beats, they are just the
cards coming out randomly, evening themselves out over time. What is really important
is learning the thousands of languages that different people speak through their actions
at the table. Believe me, it isn't some spiritual science, it is listening and learning without
prejudice.

Gigabet

46
Thoughts on Running bad for UNL guys (ssdex)

I browse through posts really often in the brew and in general where I see people who
have 10 buyin downswings and are ready to quit poker, or are just on life-tilt in general.
It is really hard when you first begin poker to understand the concept of "variance". I
have written before on my uber nitty strategy of bankroll management. I am pretty sure
there is no other 50nl reg that plays as overrolled as I do, even if I moved up to 100nl, I
would still probably be the most overrolled reg there. The reason I prefer to play
lower and overrolled has a lot to do with the emotional side of poker. Running
bad at higher limits, the downswings emotionally effect me too much and prone
me to tilt, much more so than I already am.

The point of this post is to understand that you should be emotionally "numb" to the
limits you choose to play. If you don't have a lifestyle that relies on poker for $ then I
think you can emotionally move up much faster. I know at the beginning of my poker
career when I was in school I could care less about the money at first. But it is hard to
deal with when you think you have/take ownership to $15k sitting in a poker account and
then 3 weeks later there isn't anything there because your busto. I'm to lazy to link
ama's pooh bah post, but if you havent read it, you should. He calls it "connecting", I just
say you should be numb.

So, here is my 2 cents. 10 buyin downswing happen people. I have a lot of "unnecessary
variance" in my game. So I will always have multiple 5 buyin downswings per month and
a really good month won't include a 10 downer. A really bad month will probably have a
downswing much larger than this. Over 100k hands you can expect 2 or 3 of these type
of downswings. But if you are playing where you belong (this in my opinion has nothing
to do with your bankroll), then you will be emotionally numb to these swings. You will
understand your moves are +EV and you have been playing good just running poorly.
You will shove b/c you know you have the right equity, and not be scared to pull the
trigger just because you've missed 9 of your last 10 combo draws. It won't matter if your
on a 15 buyin downswing or you've played 20k hands at breakeven.

Just because you have 30-40 buyins for a level doesn't mean you should feel obligated to
play it. You should play at levels you can emotionally beat, not just beat +EV. Taking
shots is obv ok, but take small shots, not big ones. Lots of players can beat levels way
above the one they are playing, but they are emotionally -ev at those levels because
they can't become "numb" to the instant results. Being emotionally -ev can often
overcome even the greatest edge in cards for the shorterm. Often bad enough to bring
us close to busto and crush our confidence in poker. Tilt during this time becomes way
worse then normal, and they find themselves in the utter state of busto. Most of us have
been there. I play nl100 nl200 and even nl400 from time to time, when I am having good
months or I feel like I am really keen on my game, but when I find myself venting over
beats and not being "numb" towards the results I come back to my haven which is nl50
at stars.

There have been times during my poker career during my worse downers where I
considered the fact that I had just run good over hundreds of thousands of hands and
was not indeed a winner, times where I wasn't sure if I could beat nl10, much less nl100.
If you are playing at levels where you are "numb", I think it is possible to avoid these
moments in your poker career. Learn from others mistakes!

This post was inspired by my last 100k hands which were my worse ever at nl50. I ran
4bb/100, which is kind of cancerous and had several very bad downswings (1 20 and 1
25 buyin downsing). Ive also been running at 2bb/100 at nl100 over the last 20k, which
is also a poor result, but after review, I feel better about it. The next 100k will go better,

47
maybe like the 400k before that. I am in no hurry to move up permanently, and i'm ok
with that now. I'll move up when i'm "numb" at those levels again, i'm just not there yet.
Happy reading and good luck at the tables, hope this post is helpful..... great pooh bah
post ama.... in his words... connect!

48
Do things for a reason (ofishstix)

It has been a little over four years since I started playing poker and about three years
since I’ve done so online. In this time, I’ve learned and forgotten a bunch of ideas and
concepts. Some things my friends and I learned/reasoned out were right, others were
terrible wrong. In terms of advice, though, there is one piece that is so important I’ll
never forget it…

I got to durrrr’s house around midnight when he was playing some 200/400 PLO. He was
already up 600k on the day and was about to cal it a night. After he finished up his sesh,
we went out to take care of some things. In the car he was telling me how soft the heads
up games on Prima were. “They’re all sports betters who like gambling. Sit at 5/10, find
a fish, and they never stop reloading. I’ll take half your action.” I three tabled 3/6 6 max,
5/10 full ring, and 5/10 HU. He was helping me out with the HU match as I had never
played HU NL outside of SNGs.

This is when I learned that limping the button is fine. If you’re going to get called
anyway, why would you want to bloat the pot with marginal hands like 45s? Limp and
outplay your opponent postflop. Good advice, but not exactly epiphany-type stuff.

Though I don’t remember the exact hand, I remember the lesson it prompted. I hadn’t
3bet preflop in a while so I decided to do it with something marginal like J9o. durrrr
asked me why I did that and I told him that I hadn’t 3bet in a while so I thought it would
be a good time. He told me:

Always have a good reason for everything you do

Don’t 3bet for the sole reason you haven’t done so in a while. Don’t bluff raise the flop
just because you haven’t done that lately. You must reason out every move you make.
Doing so will make you play more actively/not in autopilot mode. You will constantly be
analyzing your play and improving. It will help prevent you from making terrible, tilty,
and spewy plays because you’re not just acting on a whim, you’re consciously reasoning
through your options.

Despite the great advice, I still ended up being down 4k because I lost one 200bb and
two 400bb coin flips. Now owing him 2k, I decided to take a nap and .5% of his session.
I woke up a few hours later and durrrr was up 400k which covered my debt. That day, in
fact, turned out to be his famous million-dollar-day. Though I broke even that day, the
lesson helped me make plenty over the last 10 months. In addition to poker, this lesson
can be applied to everything. It’s much harder to make a poor decision when you think
through it first.

Good luck,
ofishstix

49
Evolving (MTG)

The quality of posts in this forum has been incredibly bad recenty. So, inspired by this I
thought I'd examine the stages a poster goes through, and examine the ways we can all
get better.

Step 1: The Newb

The newb has just stumbled onto this site. Thye know poker basics like simple preflop
hand selection and basic pot odds. The rest of poker is still a mystery, however.
Generally they enter into the forum asking a pretty simple question like "UTG with 6BBs
and AKo, raise, push, or just fold it," or, "I'm in the CO with 15BBs and an MP player
raises, should I just call so I can get away if an A flops." The newb comes in 3 distinct
brands. There is the passive newb, the angry newb, and the interested newb. The
passive newb posts a hand to be told what to do. He (or in much rarer cases she) posts a
situation so that the better posters on the forum can tell him what to do in the given
situation. The angry newb posts so that he can crow about how his decision is right and
berate those who disagree with him (even though it is clear to most that the angry newb
is clearly a worse player than the ones he berates). Then there is the interested newb
who is much rarer than the other 2. The interested newb posts the same type of threads,
but becomes involved in debate in an attempt to understand the advice he receives.
Unlike the angry newb he doesnt assume he is right, and unlike the passive newb he is
seeking to understand how to make decisions, not how to play only the hand he posted.
In order to progress further, both the angry newb and the passive newb must first
transform themselves into the interested newb.

Step 2: The Confuzlleds

Generally speaking this stage occurs when a newb sticks with it. They begin reading and
posting and get bombarded with concepts they are not prepared to deal with. Thus they
end up making posts like "KK and 8 BBs, should I stop n go," or "Restealing with QQ."
The confuzzled understand basic strategy but get confused and puzzled by anything but
the most simple of situations. You often see phrases like, "if you want to gamble then
call" or, "if you want to play for first call, if you want to make the money then folding is
ok." Most confuzzled players games consist of trying to apply rules they read about to
situations they are confronted with, often without rhyme or reason. The majority of
players stall here because again they do not make the effort to understand the thinking
and reasoning that dictates these rules, (for example open pushing with roughly 10BBs),
instead they just try to use them, and often incorrectly. Players games have improved
from when they were newbs, but generally they remain break even players at best.
However, a small number of confuzzleds strive to understand the "rules" (they
understand that "rules" should be in quotes) and the leads them to progress.

Step 3: Leapers
If a poster progresses this far they are on their way. They have made the first leap, that
is, they have found math. They have grasped that the "rules" are just a shorthand way to
deal with frequent situations, and that they stem from the math. Specifically they begin
assigning hand ranges, and figuring out how their hand fares against those ranges. This
stage usually finds posters responding to many many posts (usually authoratatively and
usually correctly) because while they are helping answer the question the poster is
asking they are also helping themselves become more comfortable assigning ranges and
doing complicated EV calculations. If a poster makes it to this point they are more than
likely a winning player which makes it oh so tempting to stall and not continue on to.....

50
Step 4: Poker Players
If you make it here, the math has become 2nd nature (even the most complicated of it).
You main focus is no longer individual decisions but rather lines (the series of decisions
you make in a hand looked at collectively). Often when responding to basic questions
these posters leave out explicit calculations because it has become so second nature that
they can intuit the correct action without having to do the math out (this can occasionally
make them a little hard to distinguish from the cunfuzzled). By focusing on how to play
the hand as a whole these posters learn how to make better postflop decisions and often
it leads to them leaving the forum in favor of cash games as for the first time they may
be equipped for it. A poster who reaches this level is clearly a very good tournament
player (although might still be a very middle of the road cash game player) and its easy
for them to think they have nothing left to learn.

Step 5: Meta
The elite. They are focused on playing poker instead of just an individual hand, or
decision. They think about how to play their hand in relation to all the other hands they
play. Often they have no time for the simple decisions, which sucks for the rest of the
forum. Still, more than anything else this category stands as a reminder to us all that
there is a level to which we can improve. No matter how good we are there's always a
way to get better.

So, my advice to everybody is stop being lazy, quit being comfortable with where you are
and start trying to improve your game. There are always ways to get better, and
persuing those avenues is interesting and rewarding. Its a shame that so many posters
here have their games stuck in neutral because its brought the forum to a grinding halt.

51
Opening Up Your Eyes and Your Game (AJFenix)

Recently I have had some interesting discussions with a few regulars, and some
interesting points were brought up from which I learned quite a bit, and I figured it might
benefit players on here if I shared a little of what I learned and observed.

A lot of players seem to be stuck in a mode, whatever that mode may be. They have
gotten to midstakes playing a particular way, and even though they may have somewhat
adjusted to the different dynamic of this game, they are still unwilling to open their game
up whether they recognize it or not, and/or its simply hard for them to do certain things
differently as it has all become routine. This generalization encompasses a lot of solid
midstakes players, and it is whom I am directing this post towards.

These players may have pretty big leaks in their game (that may very well be unknown
to them, and really not that big of a deal to them at this point in time as far as the
games they are playing in go) and still be winning players or even be doing very well,
simply because the vast majority of their opponents are not exploiting their leaks, and
also have much bigger leaks themselves. As these solid players move up, they encounter
more players that are capable of exploiting their leaks and that also possess fewer
themselves. Just as the solid grinder is preying on the fish to pay off his big hand, the
30/20 in the 10/20 Party game is preying on the solid grinder's leaks. I don't think
people realize how crazy the dynamic at a game like the 10/20 6max on party can be,
and after all, midstakes are (hopefully) only a gateway for you, getting you ready for the
next level. I will touch on this game dynamic within the next few parts.

1) Reraising Preflop

Many midstakes players have a very tight reraising range. They will reraise their big
hands, and even though their range is so slim, they still make far more money on these
hands than they should be making, given how well defined their hands tend to be in
certain spots. These same players are content to just call preflop with certain hands, and
even though their decision to call may be +EV, they don't even consider their third
option, which is to reraise. In certain spots calling may even be your worst option. When
you are on the SB facing a button raise or even button facing a CO raise, what do you
accomplish cold calling a raise with the majority of your hands?

Sure, calling may be +EV in some of those situations but many don't even consider the
+EV situation a reraise would set up for them and how much greater that EV would be
than that of calling (the same thing often applies in many spots as far as raising vs
overlimping, where both may be +EV but raising may be a much better option). You
likely have a +EV situation right there preflop, and if you get called you will often have
another +EV situation postflop, even disregarding your actual hand. By reraising you gain
momentum, you overrepresent your hand and force them to make a hand, and your
reraising range obviously increases, both decreasing the implied odds of your opponents
calling and trying to crack your big hand, and increasing your action on your big hands as
observant players will realize that you are capable of reraising light. The higher up in
stakes you go, the more observant players you encounter.

As far as calling, with clunkier hands like KQ/AJ you will often be folding the best hand
when you miss (which will be most of the time), and even when you do get a favorable
top pair flop, you will often be unsure of your hand if you are facing a lot of pressure in
certain spots. Your hand carries reverse implied odds. With more deceptive hands your
actual implied odds to call the LP preflop raise are generally very poor, as LP's raising
ranges tend to be very wide. You are also going to be missing the majority of the time,
or getting forced off of your more marginal hands (which will often be the best hand) by

52
aggressive players. In both cases you also lack initiative. You have to ask yourself what
you are really accomplishing by calling with some these hands.

Just about all of the biggest winners in the 10/20 game on Party have a very "opened
up" game. To be even more specific, I believe 4 of the top 5 have close to 30/20 stats,
and one is an amazing 47/29. They are awesome post-flop players, and their analysis of
situations is dead-on the majority of the time. One other thing that they are very good at
doing is spotting and setting up profitable situations preflop. Over and over and over and
over. The reraising ranges of some of these top players are astounding. These players
are squeezing each other left and right, and have absolutely no problem
reraising/rereraising light. You will see full stacks go in with relative garbage. If you
didn't know any better, you may chock it up as donk-on-donk violence, when the hand
may have just went down between the 2 biggest winners in that game. And believe me,
fireworks do fly when they are at the table together. And they aren't the only ones you
will see this kind of action from, either. Their preflop game is so much different than
what the average midstakes player is used to that it can really be amazing. Their
variance shoots up, but the number of +EV situations they are involved in does too, and
of course their profits do as well.

2) Firing the Second Barrel

Everyone knows and loves the continuation bet. Far fewer people fully appreciate the
value of his big brother, the second barrel. They make use of him from time to time, but
far less than they should. The continuation bet is a transparent play that tends to work
often enough on its own merit, even though everyone is fully expecting you to bet at
almost any flop with any hand you came in raising with. If you are raising a fairly wide
range of hands, and betting at a lot of flops, someone might actually put 2 and 2
together (!!!) and realize//exploit the fact that you don't have anything on the flop a
good amount of the time you are betting. If you run into a player that is playing back at
you light, and you simply give up on the turn the majority of the time when you get
called on the flop and you don't have anything, you are begging him to keep running you
over and you are throwing money away if you yourself are coming in light and then
playing bad postflop. If you would be giving up the pot by checking, but you realize that
firing the turn will probably get him to fold often enough to be +EV disregarding any outs
you may or may not have, there really isn't a decision to be made as far as what your
play should be.

Not only is the situation itself +EV, but future implications are there as well. When your
opponent realizes that he has to expect a turn bet from you a high percent of the time
and you aren't just giving up whenever he calls you and you don't have a very good
hand, he is going to be much less inclined to contest pots against you with weak
holdings. Now your continuation bets are going to be getting more respect from this
player, and you are further bettering your overall situation. This also leads to forcing
your opponents into making mistakes, and also leads to you getting more overall
information in various subsequent situations and reading hands better. Everything leads
to you making more money, though.

That being said, I am not advocating players to fire the second barrel without considering
all of the important factors, and firing again will be lightning money on fire in many spots
(as their hand will already be well defined as unfavorable for you after their flop call in a
particular spot and/or the situation is not a profitable one for other reasons). I am simply
pointing out that this is a very common spot in which players are passing up on clearly
profitable situations and are really hurting themselves in the long run. They can become
much stronger players by utilizing these situations.

Going back to the discussion of higher stakes games, the top high stakes players are
generally firing that second barrel at a drastically higher rate than the solid regulars at

53
mid stakes, and there isn't any hesitation. That isn't to say they are just brainlessly firing
away, although some spots are so clear that it really doesn't require much thought. They
simply play very well postflop, and playing very well postflop indicates that they are good
at spotting +EV situations, which the turn brings very often. The second barrel is really
just the tip of the iceberg, though.

3) Giving Yourself a Bigger Cushion

I have observed the bankroll discussions on this forum and have a few comments on the
subject. If you asked me a couple months ago whether I could have a 10 buyin
downswing playing my normal game without any real tilt in there, I really doubt I could
foresee it happening. Now 10 buyin downswings are not only a possibility, but they are
expected/inevitable, as are long breakeven stretches. Poker is very good at painting an
illusion because of how deceptive and subtle variance in poker can be, and how many
small things go into running bad and running good that you do not pay attention to.
Swings are inevitable over the long run. This is obvious and everyone thinks they realize
this, but people don't fully grasp it. Swings become exponentially more violent as you
move up and your winrate drops.

Some people are perfectly fine with giving themselves a small cushion, and have no
problem hopping up and down in limits at a crazy pace on the whim of their latest
upswing or downswing. Others give themselves a small cushion without knowing what
can possibly happen. A 2p2 regular who is a consistent winner at 5/10NL moves up to
10/20 with 30-40 buyins, and gets crunched for 10 buyins. That can seriously be
devastating to that person. To give a point of reference, the biggest winner in one
particular game was apparently recorded as to having TWO 25 buyin downswings last
month alone. More than one very good player has been known to run at almost
breakeven for 100k hands.

Some posters have said that your "move up" shouldn't be a big event. You should
gradually move up, and be willing to play multiple levels as your bankroll allows
whenever you spot a good game. You can't really argue with that, but most people do
have a "regular" limit for them where they put in the bulk of their hands. When they
make the next level their "regular" game, some people do not give themselves enough
cushion because they do not realize that a big downswing near the beginning of their
move up is very well within the realm of possibility. The players who were moving up
from 100NL to 200NL and from 200NL to 400NL very quickly as soon as they attained 25
buyins for the next level probably have never experienced a decent sized downswing,
and they think that if they drop 5 buyins at 5/10NL it will prove to them that they are not
ready for that level. As I have been pointing out, they can lose far more than that and
still have evidence of absolutely nothing if they do not analyze their situation properly.

What it comes down to is realizing what goes into variance and what it is capable of, and
adjusting according to what you are willing to accept. If you like the rollercoaster thats
up to you and its your choice. But if your goal is a nice steady ride up the money hill with
a few bumps that aren't going to wreck your ride in more ways than one, then you may
want to consider giving yourself a bigger cushion.

4) Conclusion

Hopefully this post helps people realize whats in store for them at the higher limits, helps
some people become more willing to open their game up and attempt changing their
thinking a little and getting better, as its really going to be necessary if they want to
continue moving up in stakes and doing well in the higher games, and hopefully those
players that aren't trying to ride a rollercoaster both emotionally and bankroll-wise have
a slightly better grasp of the capabilities of variance. I also want to add that I am

54
nowhere near the skill/experience level of some of the players discussed here
at this point in time. I am simply relaying my thoughts and observations.

55
How to use Poker Tracker (Pokey)

This is a how-to post, but it doesn't belong in the software forum; it's to teach people
how they can use the Poker Tracker data to find flaws in their game.

Not a week goes by that someone doesn't ask if they are playing the game right. In that
post, they include a dozen numbers from Poker Tracker and hope that the old-timers on
SSNL can fix all their holes. While it's true that Poker Tracker can help find problems, this
is not the way to approach it.

I'm going to try to give you a rough guide for the things you can do to check on your
game. These are all just my opinion; they're all subject to interpretation, and other
people may disagree with me strongly. The best way to play is usually player-specific,
but these strike me as some things you can check on that are frequent flaws in the
small-stakes player's game.

1. Do you have sufficient preflop aggression? To answer this question, open up your
ring game statistics and go to the "position stats" page. For each position other than the
small blind, divide the "PF Raise %" by the "Vol. Put $ In Pot." If you get a number
smaller than 0.5, you're not aggressive enough out of that position. See, aggression is a
relative term; it should be a function of your level of looseness. You can be a consistently
winning player at SSNL with a VPIP of 12%, and you can be a consistently winning player
at SSNL with a VPIP of 30%, but only if you are sufficiently aggressive. My general
guideline is that you should raise at least half the hands you play, from every position on
the table.

2. Are you positionally aware? Positional awareness means that you understand Ed
Miller's comment when he said:
Quote:
Total all the dollars you've ever bet playing poker. The large majority of those dollars should
have been bet from late position. Only a small percentage of your total handle should have
been bet from up front.

To test this, go to the Position Stats and look down the list of VPIP from Button to UTG.
You should see that VPIP steadily dropping the farther you get from the button. I'd love
to see my button VPIP at double my UTG VPIP, but if my Button VPIP is at least 50%
larger than my UTG VPIP, I'm happy with the situation.

3. How's my stealing? To check on your performance when trying a blind steal, go to

the General Info. tab. Where it says "Att. To Steal Blinds" I'd like to see that number at
LEAST 20%. (Personally, I like mine to be over 30%, but I'm very aggressive in these
situations. If you're trying to steal the blinds less than 20% of the time, you're leaving
lots of money on the table.) Now click on "Filters..." and under "Chance to Steal Blinds"
click "Chance to Steal & Raised." Select OK and look at the numbers. This shows every
time you've tried to steal the blinds, and how the attempt turned out for you. Under
"Totals" see the "BB/Hand" statistic. That shows your per-hand winrate on blind steals. If
you multiply this number by 100, it should be at least double your "PTBB/100" average
winrate. If it's much less than that and you have a decent sample size, you have a hole
in your game when it comes to blind stealing. This should be an exceedingly profitable
thing to do when you try it; if it's not, you need to work on your strategy.

4. Defending the blinds. Click on "Turn Filter Off," and then click on "Filters..." again.
Under "Blind Status" click on "Either Blind." Now under "Vol. Put $ In Pot" click on "Put

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Money In." This shows you if you're bleeding money out of the blinds. A "BB/Hand" of
about -0.375 would indicate that you were no better off putting money into the pot than
if you had folded. If your "BB/Hand" is larger than that, then you typically win back some
of your blind money when you put money into the pot from the blinds. That's all you can
really hope for. If you click on "Filters..." again and go under "Steal Attempted Against
Your Blind" and click on "Steal Attempted." After you click "OK" you'll now see how you
did when you chose to defend against a blind steal. Again, the magic number is for your
"BB/Hand" to be bigger than -0.375; that means you're making back some of your blinds
when you try to defend against a steal. If either of these numbers is lower than -0.375,
you'd lose less money by always folding rather than doing what you're doing.

5. Heads-up play. Click on “Turn Filter Off,” then click on “Filters…” again. Under
“Hands With Between…Players Seeing The Flop” change the range from “0 to 10 players”
to “2 to 2 players.” Hit “OK” and see what comes up. This shows you how you’ve done
when you were heads-up preflop, but a flop was dealt. See how you’ve done in these
situations. If things look OK, go back to “Filters…” and under “Pre-flop Raise” select “No
Raise.” This will show you how you’ve done when you didn’t raise preflop, but the hand
was heads-up on the flop (this includes pure limping and when someone ELSE raised
preflop, but not when you were the preflop raiser). Is this number positive? If not, it
could be an indicator that you have trouble when you are not the aggressor preflop,
especially without padding in the pot.

6. Multiway pots. Clear the filter and go back under filters. Change “Hands With
Between…Players Seeing The Flop” to “3 to 10 players.” This shows you how you do in
multiway pots. If things look good, go back and select “No Raise” under “Pre-flop Raise.”
Is it still positive? If so, you’re selecting good times to play/limp multiway pots, and
you’re playing them well postflop.

7. Pocket pairs. Under “Filters…” change the “Type of Hole Cards” to “Pairs.” This will
show you how you generally play and perform with pocket pairs. Your Total VPIP with
these should be EXTREMELY high; unless you play at highly unusual tables, I’d be
surprised to see this number below 85%. Pocket pairs make extremely powerful hands
that are extremely well-hidden; if you’re not playing them almost all the time, you’re
leaving money on the table. Also, your Total PFR% with these hands should be rather
high -- at least 1/3 of your VPIP, if not 1/2. Some people have this number higher still,
and I don’t have a problem with that, especially at short-handed tables. If you have
enough hands, I’d expect every one of these lines to be positive, and reasonably
significantly so. If you have any glaringly negative numbers, especially AA-88, it may
indicate bad play. Look over individual hands where you lose lots of money and see if you
played too timidly early in the hand, or if you went too far unimproved in the face of
resistance. Also, look at the hands where you won to see if you played too timidly, or if
you routinely forced weaker hands out when you should have been milking them for
profits.

8. Suited connectors. Under “Filters…” change “Type of Hole Cards” to “Suited

Connectors.” I’m much less likely to play suited connectors than pocket pairs, but some
people play them religiously. As a result, I don’t really have a good suggestion as to how
high your VPIP or PFR should be. However, your BB/hand should be positive; if it’s not,
you’re probably not playing your suited connectors well. Remember: these hands play
best in a multiway, unraised pot, or as a steal move. In the “Filters…” change “Vol. Put $
In Pot” to “Cold-Called.” When you hit OK, you should have almost no entries to view. Of
the times you cold-called, you should be able to come up with a specific explanation for
why you did so in each and every one of them. Review the hand histories; if you can’t
come up with a really good reason why you thought it better to cold-call, rather than
raise or fold, you need to rethink your suited connector strategy. Good explanations: the
raise was very small, villain is passive post-flop, I had position on villain, villain and I are
both extremely deep-stacked, villain is incredibly aggressive preflop, my suited

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connectors are particularly strong, there are several cold-callers in front of me, etc. I’m
not saying you shouldn’t ever cold-call with suited connectors; rather, I’m saying you
shouldn’t AUTOMATICALLY do so. Your default play here should be to fold weak suited
connectors and reraise strong ones.

9. Unsuited connectors. Clear the filter and then go back into it. Change “Type of Hole
Cards” to “Off-Suited Connectors.” Your VPIP for these hands should be noticeably
smaller than your VPIP for suited connectors. Check your winrate and make sure it’s
positive. Filter for cold-calling and see if you had good reasons for doing so, keeping in
mind that the reasons need to be even stronger than for suited connectors.

10. Postflop aggression. Clear the filter. Select the “More Detail…” button above the
“Filters…” button. Scroll down. There is a section marked “First Action on Flop After A
Pre-flop Raise.” This shows your likelihood of continuation betting. If you add Bet and
Raise, the total should be at least 40%. If it’s not, you’re probably giving up too soon on
your good hands, and that will cost you money in the long run. Remember: people who
cold-call a preflop bet are often in fit-or-fold mode. If you don’t bet, you don’t give them
a chance to fold. The pot is already decent-sized, and there’s no reason to give some
donk a free look at a turn card that could sink you. If you raised preflop, you need a
good reason NOT to raise the flop. Continuation betting should be your default play.
Scroll down a bit farther to “Aggression Factor.” Your total aggression factor should be at
LEAST 2. No-limit is not a game where you can call frequently and turn a profit. You
should always be looking to see if you can raise or fold; only if you have a good reason
why you CANNOT raise or fold should you call. As a result, calling should be an
infrequent occurrence in your play, which gives you a large aggression factor.

11. Check-raising. Some people never check-raise; others check-raise infrequently. I

personally like to check-raise at least once in awhile; 1% would be fine, 0.5% would be
acceptable. The goal of the check-raise is to remind your opponents that just because
you checked does NOT mean that you don’t have a hand. However, circumstances need
to be very specific for a check-raise to be appropriate. Typically, I check-raise on the flop
when OOP against a preflop raiser, or on the turn when OOP against a flop bettor/raiser
who was clearly not on a draw (uncoordinated flop). If you are check raising much more
than 2% of the time, you’re being entirely too tricky for a SSNL table, and
straightforward play would probably be more profitable for you.

All of this is just an introduction to the kinds of self-analysis you can/should do with
Poker Tracker statistics. Notice how much more in-depth it is than just glancing at a few
VPIP numbers. Typically, the only person who can truly do a “check-up” on your playing
style and ability is YOU. As always, if in your searching you find hands that indicate you
may have a flaw in your poker reasoning, post them up (one at a time, of course). Tell us
the problem you are worried you might have, and why you think this hand might indicate
the problem. Then, open the discussion up to see if 2+2ers agree or disagree.

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SOME THOUGHTS ON GAME SELECTION (fiksdal)

Game selection is something every serious poker player should have in his mind when he
starts a session. Obviously what kind of table you are at and which opponents you are
facing, is gonna be crucial for your expected win. Game selection gets more important
the higher in stakes you get, but even at 10NL, I’d definitely recommend considering
what kind of tables you chose to sit down at.

Different kinds of players prefer different types of opponents. For instance, if you are a
loose aggressive player who get a lot of your profitable situations from fold equity, you’d
perhaps prefer tight, passive and nitty opponents that will be easier to run over. If you
are a tight aggressive player who usually have the goods when you play big pots, you
probably like to have the loose/passive kind of fish, who calls down a lot, by your side.
For serious uNL players, this is usually the case, because pretty much no matter what
kind of micro stakes table you are at, bluffing several streets with air/a marginal hand, is
something you aren’t gonna be doing, even if they are kind of tight.

So how do you find the typical loose/passive fish that go to showdown a lot? At 10NL for
instance, most of the tables are gonna be filled with them. But even there you would like
to find the very juiciest tables, with perhaps even 2 or more 70/8/1-ish types. However,
the higher you get up in stakes, the fewer will the true fish be. At 50NL for instance,
every table will have at least a couple of TAGs on it. There are of course a lot of fish on
50NL too, but they are rarer. This is where game selection gets even more important.

The POT SIZE strategy

A lot of people start their session by putting themselves on the waiting list for the games
with the currently highest average pot sizes. The reasoning behind this tactic is obvious,
at the tables where the pots are big; the players seem willing to usually put a lot of
money in the pot. This is good for us, who will usually have good cards when we decide
to play those big pots. Personally I have used this game selection strategy a lot, and I
have had mixed experiences with it.

Problems with this strategy:

1. As a result of other people using the same strategy, there aren’t usually any free seats
at the table with the highest average pot. Most of the time there are even a couple of
people on the waiting list already. So it’s probably gonna take something like 10-15
minutes from when you register to when you actually get a seat. By that time, the fish
who were putting all that money in the pots might already have been stacked by one of
the more solid players at the table! Several times have I waited for a seat at the juiciest
game, only to eventually sit down on it to find a bunch of 17/13 tight aggressive players
sitting around folding preflop. Clearly this kind of table is also beatable if you adapt, but
it is not where the highest possible winrate can be achieved.

2. Big pot size doesn’t necessarily mean bad players. First of all, it could simply be a
result of variance. For instance, if in one hand BTN pick up KK while BB has AA (they’ll
probably get it all-in preflop or on the flop), and then in the next time to deep-stacked
players both flop a set, then those pots, and thus the average pot size is gonna be huge
no matter how skilled the players are.

Also, good players know how to value bet their strong hands, and build big pots with
them. Let’s say you have a 6-handed 50NL game with $10 as the average pot size. This
is a pretty low number, and the logic assumption about the players at it, is that they
aren’t gonna pay off your big hands. But is this given? Not necessarily. Ask yourself,
what is your favorite kind of fish? Different people might have a different answer to this
question, but personally, I definitely prefer the loose passive kind of opponent. I’d like

59
him to play a lot of hands, call preflop raises all the time and rarely use aggression
himself but rather call, call, call. The advantages of facing these kinds of opponents are
obvious. We get the ability to decide when the money goes in against them, and they
aren’t even the aggressive type who bluffs us off the best hand from time to time.

Example hand:
Hero (CO): 100bb: T T
Fish (BB): 70bb [70/6/0.5]: 9 7

Preflop: (1.5bb, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, Hero raises to 4bb, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls 3bb.

Flop: 6 8 A (8.5bb, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets 8bb, BB calls 8bb.

Turn: K (24.5bb, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks.

River: 7 (24.5bb, 2 players)

Now this is a spot where a lot of villains will usually put out a bluff. He missed his
OESDFD (something that makes most players frustrated), and he saw us showing
weakness by checking behind on the turn. So most of the time they are gonna put out
that bluff, taking the pot away from us. However, the 70/6/0.5 player doesn’t bet that
river. He just wants to see that showdown, after all he has a pair (and we all know how
these players overvalue their hands). So he checks, and we get to check behind and take
down that 24bb pot.) Such small pots make a surprisingly big difference in your final
result.

A table with a small average pot size, may very well be filled with that kind of loose
passive fish. Their passive nature has just prevented them to build a lot of big pots. For
instance, let’s look at another hand where both the involved players are fish with similar
stats to the villain in the other hand:

CO: 130bbs: 8 8
BTN: 130bbs: 9 9

Preflop: (1.5bb, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO calls 1bb, BTN calls 1bb, SB folds, BB checks.

Now only on the preflop round have we seen an example of bad players who you’d love
to sit with, but still they don’t create big pots. If at least one of these players was a TAG,
there would have been at least a raise preflop in this hand, maybe even a 3bet.

Flop: 9 8 2 (3.5bb, 3 players)

BB checks, CO checks, BTN checks (lol)

Now both players decided to slow-play their flopped sets, which is of course a felony on
this board and these stacks. It is however an extremely common play by loose/passive
fish.

Turn: 4 (3.5bb, 3 players)

BB checks, CO bets 2bb, BTN calls 2bb, BB folds.

CO notices the pot being tiny, and is (correctly) trying to get some money into it. BTN
however, decides to keep slow-playing, out of fear of CO going away if he raises.

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River: 7 (7.5bb, 2 players)
CO bets 4bb, BTN calls 4bb.

CO sees the card completing the draws. In a scared fashion he puts out a small
value/blocking bet. BTN who is also afraid of the draws, just calls! The final pot size is
15.5bb. An incredibly small pot considering the monsters the players had, but such hands
go down between passive fish all the time. If this hand had been going on between two
TAGs, the final pot size would by all likeliness have been 260bbs.

So a high average pot size doesn’t always mean bad players, and a low one doesn’t
always mean good ones. However, if a good, aggressive player sits down at a table full of
these opponents, he will be able to control pot sizes against them. They usually call down
too much, and if the aggressive player picks up a bunch of hands that qualify to value
bet multiple streets with, pots involving the calling stations and him could get rather
large. This is why the tables with the low average pot sizes might not always be that bad
at all. Players at it could be very willing to put money in the pot with medium hands. All
they need is someone to make bets that they can call. Someone who will build big pots:
YOU.

How do you find the tables with this kind of opponents? Personally, there is a strategy I
have been using more and more lately. When I start a session I open a couple of empty
tables, and sit down at them. What kind of players do you think is gonna sit down with
me? Do you think the other decent TAGs who play multiple tables are gonna sit down and
play heads up with another regular? Very unlikely. Most of the time the people that come
to me are total fish. They usually buy-in for like 20-50bb (a very good sign), and start
limping all over the place. It usually doesn’t take long before I have 5 sweet
loose/passive fish sitting with me, and the average stats of my table are amazingly often
along the lines of 50/10/1 when I use this strategy. Then the fish double up through each
other and I get to play with them 100bbs deep. uNL, I encourage you all to use this table
selection technique the next time you start a session.

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How to Put It All Together and be a Winning Player
(MikeyPatriot)

My poker career has been a long journey. I started out playing in an unorganized, blind-
less home game and donating my paychecks online. After a 9 month hiatus from the
game for personal reasons (moving/not having a home game/dating someone I spent a
majority of my time with), I got the itch to play again. Since then, I've made an effort to
improve at all times rather than assume I know how to play because I've read
Super/System. I read any book I couldn't get my hands on, started lurking 2+2/SSNL,
and most importantly started to manage my bankroll responsibly.

When I first started reading here, I couldn't believe that some people were beating the
game for 8, 10 or 12 PTBB/100 hands. Even when I became a consistently marginally
winning player (3-4/100), I figured the big winners were liars or luckboxes. Slowly, but
surely (and switching to six max) I started to see my winrate improve. I understood
where these people were coming from. You COULD beat the game that bad.

I should start by saying this: it isn't easy. When people say you should post hands, read
SSNL, evaluate your play in PT, etc. they aren't kidding. Doing these things help build the
fundamentals which make everything else such a breeze. It's comparable to a musician
playing scales over and over or a basketball player taking jump shot after jump shot.
Once you get the basics down, the advanced stuff starts to come to you piece by piece.

I'm not going to try and tell you I know it all. I certainly don't. Like I said before, I'm
trying to learn all the time. But these are some things I've noticed in my playing
experiences that I think are important to my success.

1) Passion - Poker is a game. You can beat it with a good understanding of the
fundamentals. Like most professions though, those who are truly passionate about what
they're doing are the most successful. Michael Jordan didn't get to his level by shooting
free throws on the weekends. Bill Gates didn't become successful by writing software in
his free time. These people were/are passionate about what they were/are doing. This
doesn't mean you have to play 8 hours a day or be thinking about poker 24/7 away from
the table. But it does mean you should constantly be looking for ways to improve and
never accept complacency - especially when you first start out.

2) Bankroll management - I'm sure this sounds like a broken record to those of you who
read this forum with any regularity, but it can't be said enough. If you are playing at a
level you are uncomfortable at, it will be very hard to be successful. If you don't mind
going bust and reloading, by all means play as high as you can afford. If you're scared of
getting it all in and being sucked out, you're probably playing far too high.

3) Marginal situations - The more experience you acquire, the more able you will be to
handle marginal situations. This can definitely add a BB to your winrate. However, as
other posters have made note of, they aren't that important! If you have a hard time in
marginal situations, you will save yourself money and frustration by keeping yourself out
of them. Fold QJo on the button if everyone has limped to you and you don't want to
raise, but don't want to call. It may not be optimal (and I may get flamed for suggesting
it), but when you enter a pot, you're potentially risking your whole stack. The marginal
EV you gain playing the hand isn't worth the risk if you'll get stacked a bunch when you
hit top pair.

4) Participate on the board! - Post hands. Reply in other hands. Sign up for a session
review (I highly recommend this). Do something. The more you challenge yourself to
critically think about the game, the easier decisions will come to you at the table.

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5) Stay humble - I don't know how many times I started my own downswing by getting
to cocky. Sure, we want to play as many hands against the fish as much as we can, but
(and this goes with point 3) that doesn't mean we should be putting ourselves into super
marginal positions. Playing ATo from UTG is trouble for most everyone. Don't let an
upswing twist your head into thinking otherwise.

These are the things that have led me to becoming a winning player. Finding Two Plus
Two kickstarted all of it. Just the fact that you are here is a great start. Keep learning
and don't be afraid to make mistakes!

Also, if anyone would like to discuss hands, poker, life, politics, etc. AIM me at
MikeyPatriot.

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Advice from a MHNL'er (whitelime’s)

(PART I)

Hi. I normally play 5/10 NL and higher. I don't post often in MHNL because at that level,
some of the advanced concepts and thought processes are better left unsaid since some
people still don't understand them. Many other posters hold back their thought processes
to a certain degree as well. However, I have gained some knowledge from 2+2 and
would like to repay by helping out some Small Stakes players. I will try to post one solid
piece of advice for SS play each week. If I forget, someone send me a PM.

1) Isolate against the fish VERY FREQUENTLY

I see this mistake made very often. A donkey, lets say VPIP over 50 limps. Our 2+2'er
limps behind. This is very bad. Your range of hands for raising the weak limper with
position on him should include AT LEAST the following and probably more if you play
halfway decent postflop: AA-77, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, Axs, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT, Q9s, J9s,
K9s, 9Ts....

The amount you raise can vary, but a general rule is 3.5BB + 1 per limper (pot size
raise).

If you get HU with the fish, and he checks the flop, you should be betting almost 100%
of the time. Bet your monsters and bet your crap. Your bet amount should vary between
1/2 the pot and the full pot. Mix up the bet amount so no one can read your hand.
However, use some common sense.

If the flop is A55 rainbow, a half pot bet probably makes the same hands fold as a pot
bet...etc.

Think about it from a game theory perspective. If you bet the full pot every time, he will
have to fold LESS than 50% or you show an automatic profit. Since most HE hands miss
more than 50% of flops, unless the fish can adjust to your strategy, you will show an
automatic profit.

Additionally, even if does call once in a while, you will have a hand once in a while so
he'll have to be calling/raising not just 50% of the time, but way more.

Furthermore, if he does start raising and playing back at you, he is bad, so you should be
able to outplay him.

Bottom Line - Start Isolating.

There is one situation where you should not isolate. This is if you have someone who is
VERY loose in calling raises to your left. If this is the case, you won't be able to isolate
that effectively. Naturally, the closer you are to the button, the more frequently you
should be isolating.

You should be looking to sit to the direct left of the very loose players. You should pound
on them. Attack them relentlessly. I've actually heard it debated whether you would
rather sit to the left of a very loose player or the TAG so to avoid him having position on
you. Let me put an end to this debate. Sit to the left of the loose player. It's not even
close.

If you have a 6 handed table with 3 average players, 1 very loose player, and one very

64
solid TAG and you have to sandwhich yourself between the TAG and the loose player, I
would estimate your BB/100 will be DRAMATICALLY higher sitting to the left of the loose
player with the TAG to your left. The reasons for this should be obvious.

I'll try to think of another important concept for next week.

Enjoy!

(PART II)

Hi. I normally play 5/10 NL and higher. I don't post often in MHNL because at that level,
some of the advanced concepts and thought processes are better left unsaid since some
people still don't understand them. Many other posters hold back their thought processes
to a certain degree as well. However, I have gained some knowledge from 2+2 and
would like to repay by helping out some Small Stakes players. I will try to post one solid
piece of advice for SS play each week. If I forget, someone send me a PM.

2) VERY VERY rarely is slowplaying correct

This goes not only for postflop play, but preflop play as well. First I'll discuss the simpler
preflop play.

Every time you smooth call a raise preflop with AA or KK

There is one common condition smooth calling preflop is correct. This is against a player
who is recklessly aggressive postflop, but will fold to a reraise preflop. Note that just
being recklessly aggressive postflop is not enough to warrant a smooth call. If he is
willing to call a pot size reraise preflop, he has very slim implied odds regardless of his
holding. Factor in that he will often incorrectly put money in the pot postflop as a big
underdog and slowplaying becomes very incorrect.

There is a second minor reason to slowplay preflop and this is for deception purposes.
This, however, is the most overrated reason at almost any limit. This is because it takes
a ridiculous number of table hours against a particular opponent to deduce that he will
NEVER slowplay AA/KK.

If you still like to slowplay your AA/KK, make sure you do it against an opponent whose
PFR is small enough to the point where you know the range of hands you are trapping. If
you smooth call a loose raiser and see a Q44 flop, you'll only end up trapping yourself
when he shows you a 45 which you could've either pushed out preflop, or forced to make
an incorrect call preflop.

Preflop slowplaying is bad, but postflop slowplaying is usually much worse.

I call the following "The Idiot's Monster"

Call Preflop with a drawing hand (pocket pair, suited connector)

Call raiser's flop bet when you hit your monster.

Raise the turn small (whether it's minraise or raise f/ $200 to $500).

Value bet the river.

I'm not saying to get rid of this line completely, however, pick your spots. Against most
thinking players, you will not take their stack this way against an overpair. However,

65
against some loose calling station whose entire thought process is "he bets more so he
has a better hand", use this line (raising the flop is still superior) and value bet him into
submission. He will never fold his TPGK.

Reasons slowplaying is bad:

1) Fastplaying is deceptive, slowplaying is not (against thinking players). You heard right.
Because the overwhelming majority of players online slowplay their very strong hands,
most thinking players will never see what hit them when you fastplay yours.

2) Fastplaying builds pots. This one should be obvious. You don't want streets checked
when you have a very strong hand. You want the maximum amount going in on every
street. When you flop a set and sense that your opponent has an overpair, pound him.
Don't plan on taking half his stack. Go for it all. He probably isn't folding unless...

3) a scare card hits. I'm going to use a simple example to illustrate this point. You have
77 OOP against a preflop raiser. The flop comes T74 with a heart flush draw. You check
call the flop. Think about how many turn cards could potentially kill your action. Any
heart, T, J,6,3 could result in your opponent not willing to go to the felt with his overpair.
Check-raising and leading out are both acceptable options. Check-calling is pretty bad.

Here is another example from a hand that I played recently:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

BB ($949)
Hero ($1342)
MP ($286.12)
CO ($992)
Button ($704.35)
SB ($769.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6, 5. SB posts a blind of $5.

Hero raises to $35, 3 folds, SB (poster) calls $30, BB calls $25.

Flop: ($105) K, 6, 6 (3 players)

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $70, SB calls $70, BB folds.

Turn: ($245) 6 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets $175, SB calls $175.

River: ($595) A (2 players)

SB checks, Hero ???

So many players will check the turn. Checking the turn is 100% wrong. It allows your
opponent to play a small pot in a hand where he is either way ahead or way behind.
Betting it also disguises your hand and most probably stacks Villain if he holds Kx.
However, I forgot that an A could hit the river and potentially kill my action. The correct
play in this situation is not only to bet the turn, but to bet all-in. This assures that you
disguise your quads, get 95%+'s opponent's stacks all-in with Kx, and prevent a scare
card (Ace) from killing your action on the river. This example illustrates how much can go
wrong when you try to slowplay.

4) Your opponent doesn't bet! In the previous 77 example, I stated that check-raising
and leading are both good options. The reason check-raising is equally good is because
your opponent will often make a continuation bet when he misses which you would not
gain if you lead. However, you should be wary of the fact that any time you check

66
intending to trap, your opponent may check also.

Disclaimer: Don't take what I write as black and white, wrong and right. Whether I state
them as absolutes or not, they are my opinions. However, the important thing you should
be taking in from this is the thought process involved in making decisions. In this case,
the decision is whether to slowplay or not. Sure there are times when you should be
slowplaying. The important thing is that you have the thought process to recognize when
those situations arise and why slowplaying is more profitable than fastplaying in those
situations.

For my third post next week, I have an idea, but it is more of a profitability discussion,
rather than a pure strategy discussion. Anyone opposed to this?

Enjoy.

(PART III)

Hi,

Sorry it took me so long to get this one out. I've been busy lately, but a bunch of you
bombarded me w/ PM's so here goes:

The first two posts focused specifically on poker strategy while this one will deal with
profitability. Here are a few specific ways to improve your profitability (roughly in order
of importance)

1) Game Selection: This is by far the most important thing you can do to improve your
winrate. If your game selection consists solely of putting yourself on the waitlists of the
tables with the biggest avg pots/highest% to the flop, your game selection sucks.

First, think about how important game selection is. At small stakes, if you are a good
player, chances are there might be 4 or 5 tables out of 100 that you are unable to
sustain a positive winrate. However, there is a big difference between winning 2BB/100
on a certain table as opposed to 15BB/100. Think about the times where you sat down
with a fish on your table playing 70-100% of his hands. How quickly on average does he
go broke? 30 hands? 50 hands? 70 hands? If you are on his table, sometimes you'll be
the one taking his stack, sometimes you won't. However, the bottom line is, on average
you will take x% of that player's stack. If you follow most of the following advice, x will
be around 30%. Depending on how much he bought in for, this may average out to
around 9-12BB's. If we take a conservative estimate and say he lasts 70 hands, that's a
ridiculous 9-12BB/HR raise on your winrate.

I don't think there are many doubters to the fact that game selection is important so I
won't spend much more time on it. Rather, let's move on to how you go about picking
good games....

2) Identifying Fish

If you are to exercise good game selection, obviously you have to know what a good
game is. Since most of you are probably multitablers, the easiest way to do it is to use
PokerTracker and an add-on which superimposes everyone's stats onto the table. When
you aren't playing, you should leave your computer on and datamine. Within a few days
you can easily recognize the regular, winning players, and the regular, losing players.

Be warned that you shouldn't automatically assume that because a certain player's VPIP
is over 30, he is a fish. There is a wide range of styles with which people can play

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profitably. Believe it or not, there are 50/20's who are winning players at 5/10NL and
10/20NL. However, like most things, you are playing the numbers game. Chances are
that a player with a VPIP of 50 is much more likely to be a loser than a player with a
VPIP of 15.

The next way to identify the fish is to observe how they play particular hands. TAKE
NOTES. When you see someone check-call the KQ4 flop OOP w/ A7o, no draws, you can
be pretty sure that he is a losing player. It's important that you note specifics of how the
weak player plays, and ways for you to exploit that. For example, don't write "donkey" as
your note. Sure this tells you he sucks, but what good is that if you are unsure of how to
exploit it. Instead, write "calling station". Now you know not to bluff him. Or write
"doesn't extract proper value from strong hands". Now you know that you should just
check-call him down with your top pair type hand. Or write "fires three barrels with
overcards". Now you know to just check-call him down to the river.

Once you are able to identify the fish, you need to learn how to take advantage of them.

3) Play more hands with the fish and less with the sharks

This should be obvious, but it is amazing how many players play on complete auto-pilot
and disregard for who they are playing the hand against.

Here's an example. Standard starting stacks. You have 55 in the SB. Solid player raises
4-5x from middle position. All folds around to you. A lot of players will call and take a flop
to try and flop a set. However, this is incorrect for a number of reasons.

First of all, a solid player's opening range is going to be such that every time you flop
your set, he will not necessarily have a strong enough hand to pay you off. Say he raises
KQ and the flop comes J75. You aren't going to win much off him. Remember, that you
have to plan on getting 50 big blinds worth of his stack in the middle just to BREAK EVEN
on your small pocket pair.

Next, because this player is good, there's no guarantee that he will even go broke with
an overpair or top pair. Maybe a scare card hits on the turn to kill your action. Maybe he
reads your hand well and can get away quickly.

The bottom line is that speculative hands fluctuate in value depending on the player you
are playing them against.

Here is another example. Very bad player minraises UTG. One caller. You have 46s on
the button. Standard stack sizes. You should be seeing a flop here every single time.
Playing 46s profitably against a very bad player in this situation should be pretty easy if
you know what his leaks are and how to properly exploit them.

Other than widening your range of hands you will play against a weak player, how else
can you increase the number of hands you play against him...

4) Learn to play short-handed

This is probably one of the biggest fears of a lot of small stakes full ring players. I know
when I first started out, I was scared to death of SH play. Now, I'd have to play postflop
and not just win exclusively on the strength of solid starting hands. However, I can
honestly say that after 2 or 3 days of playing 6 MAX, my winrate was significantly higher
than what i was earning at full ring. This isn't because I improved my postflop play that
quickly but rather because there are more fish on the 6 MAX tables, and I am now
playing more hands against each fish.

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I think that every player takes a progression throughout their poker careers from full ring
to 6 max, to 3 handed and HU play. The fewer the number of players, the more potential
the game has for profitability. The reasons for this are fairly obvious.

5) Seat Selection Issues

It is often argued whether it is better to sit to the left of the players who play well, or the
players who play poorly. The overwhelmingly correct answer is the players who play
poorly. Think about it. Not only are you now able to isolate against that player at will, but
now when you raise, you don't risk getting 4 callers behind you. Even if once in a while
you have to play a hand out of position against a tough player, you should be playing 4-5
times as many hands against the weaker player. If a seat to the direct left of a loose,
weak player opens up, CHANGE YOUR SEAT.

Now what happens if you aren't able to move to the left of the weaker player. Let's say
you are to his direct right.

This is what is going to happen. You are going to have to significantly tighten up your
preflop raising. You can't open JTo anymore because the loose player will call, and this
will entice others after him to follow. Who wants to play a 4 handed pot out of position
with hands like that? Furthermore, every time you are in a pot against the player you are
trying to play as many pots with as possible, you are out of position. You'll have to
control your continuation betting because that player is probably a calling station. The
bottom line is that because that player is so bad, the game will still be profitable.
However, if possible, you should definitely look for another table where you can get more
favorable seating.

6) Psychology

How psychology applies to poker is something a lot of people don't properly understand.
One of the important aspects of any hand is how your opponent perceives you. Unless
you have a long history with the opponent, this usually involves how you've been playing
for the past 40-50 hands.

Here is an example:

Say you've been making a lot of continuation bets after PF raises, and C/F turns when
you miss.

You raise xy. Flop comes 982. One caller.

Check, Bet, Call.

Turn is a 2. In this situation, sometimes if you don't have a piece you might give up.
However, given your table image, it might be very profitable for you to fire a second
barrel as your opponent probably thinks you only fire 2nd barrels with legit hands.

The point of this example is that your table image can greatly influence certain decisions.
One of the reasons it's so difficult to comment on HU NL hands is because a lot of that
depends on the previous hands that you've played with the opponent.

Let's say an average player opens from the button. You reraise AQo from the big blind
and he folds. Very next hand you are dealt AA. He opens from the cutoff. You should
very seriously consider making an abnormal size raise. If he raises 4 times the blind,
maybe you should consider reraising him 20 times the blind. This is especially the case
when you have just sat down at the table. Most players don't have the thought process
required to deduce the real reason you are reraising so much and will think your a nutjob

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and go broke with a mediocore hand.

Similar situation, however this time you hold a hand like TT or JJ. In this case, you
should almost always just call his preflop raise. The reason is that he won't give you as
much credit for a strong hand since you are reraising him two times in a row. You are
very likely to be put all-in preflop, or get raised on the flop. A hand like TT or JJ will have
trouble dealing with this much pressure.

This is all I can think of at the moment but I'll try to add something next week. If you
have ideas on what you would like me to discuss, feel free to PM them to me. I'm too
tired to proofread this, so if something doesn't make sense, lemme know and I'll try to
address it.

Enjoy.

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UNL YOU ARE WEAK TIGHT (Pokey)

A little over a year ago I tested SSNL and found out that they were weak-tight. Well, this
month I tested uNL and found out that we're still weak-tight as a group.

What does weak-tight mean? In a nutshell, weak-tight means you have MUBS:
(M)onsters (U)nder the (B)ed (S)yndrome. You give your opponents too much credit for
hands and too much credit for hand-reading. I like to call it "Psychic Villain Syndrome,"
where you feel like your opponents can see into your soul. You know what? They really
can't. They're just as lost as we are. Unfortunately, when we give them credit for being
paranormally perceptive poker players we shoot ourselves in the foot, failing to make
+EV moves because we fear that our plays will be obvious (no matter how far from the
truth that might be).

Why do I accuse uNL of being weak-tight? Well, because I tricked you into telling
me that you were. First, I gave you this thread where hero flops air:

----------

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker
Hand History Converter)

SB: $28.60
BB: $22.55
UTG: $10.00
Hero (MP): $29.80
CO: $48.30
BTN: $10.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt J T (6 Players)

UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.00, 3 folds, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.10) 9 8 5 (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero bets $2.00, BB calls $2.00

Turn: ($6.10) 2 (2 Players)

BB bets $5.00, Hero calls $5.00

River: ($16.10) 3 (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero bets $14.55....

----------

I then asked you how often villain calls the bluff. The results as of right now:

Less than 25% of the time: 6 (15% of responders)

Between 25% and 50% of the time: 11 (27.5% of responders)
Between 50% and 75% of the time: 18 (45% of responders)
More than 75% of the time: 5 (12.5% of responders)

After that thread died down, I had my sneaky moderator-accomplice make another post.
It should look reasonably similar to you:

----------

71
Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker
Hand History Converter)

SB: $28.60
BB: $22.55
UTG: $10.00
Hero (MP): $29.80
CO: $48.30
BTN: $10.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7 6 (6 Players)

UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.00, 3 folds, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.10) 9 8 5 (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero bets $2.00, BB calls $2.00

Turn: ($6.10) 2 (2 Players)

BB bets $5.00, Hero calls $5.00

River: ($16.10) 3 (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero bets $14.55....

----------

NOTE WELL: stacks are the same. The flop and flop action are identical. The turn and
turn action are identical. The river and river action are identical. The ONLY DIFFERENCE
is that instead of air we've got the immortal nuts. We then asked you how often THIS
river bet gets called, and you told us:

Less than 25% of the time: 7 (29.2% of responders)

Between 25% and 50% of the time: 12 (50% of responders)
Between 50% and 75% of the time: 4 (16.7% of responders)
More than 75% of the time: 1 (4.2% of responders)

Bummer -- you're weak-tight. You've mistakenly assumed that an identical, unknown

villain calls MUCH more often when we've got nothing than he would when we've got the
nuts, even though every possible factor in the hand is otherwise identical. This makes no
logical sense, it cannot be correct, but it's how we think as a group. That, my friends, is
the very definition of weak-tight.

What are the consequences of being weak-tight? Well, the main consequence is
that we make incorrect plays because we give our opponents too much credit. We bluff
too little because we're just SURE that villain is calling, but in the same situation when
we've got the nuts we bet small because we KNOW that villain won't call a big bet. I'm
not saying that both of these statements are wrong, but at LEAST one of them MUST be.
I honestly don't know where the truth lies. IF our villain will call our bluff-pushes too
often for bluff-pushing to be profitable, then pushing with the nuts will be extremely +EV
for us. On the other hand, IF our villain dumps most of his hands to a river push, then
bluff-pushing will be extremely +EV for us. Only empirical evidence and reads will tell us
which answer is correct for a particular villain, but believing that NEITHER pushing the
nuts for value NOR pushing air as a bluff will be +EV cannot be correct -- if one doesn't
work, the other will. My pure and uneducated guess is that at uNL, pushing for value is
usually +EV and pushing as a bluff is usually -EV, but this will vary from villain to villain,
and the formula will change as you move up in stakes.

How do we beat this weak-tight curse? Let's assume that we err on the side of
overestimating our folding equity. If that's the case, then the next time you have the

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nuts on the river, ask yourself "if I had air, would pushing be +EV?" If your answer is no,
then push. If your answer is yes then decide how large a bet you could make with air and
still have it be +EV, reduce that amount by a couple BBs, and bet that much. This
adjustment will reduce our predicted folding equity when we have the nuts. It might
over-reduce it, but it's probably a move in the right direction.

Give it a try for a couple days and see how it works for you.

I don't point this out to insult you or try to make you feel stupid; rather, I point it out
because it's an EXTRAORDINARILY common problem for poker players in general, at all
stages of development. Let's try to get around our psychological stumbling blocks and
start making rational decisions instead.

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Working on your game (kom)

I decided to post what is most of my 50nl "career" because I thought it might be useful
for some players. First we begin with my first ~150k hands which can only be described
as mediocre.

As you can see I was pretty much the typical "tagfish". I was tight preflop, vaguely aware
of position, knew how to c-bet etc but still had some pretty big holes in my game.

So I signed up for cardrunners, spent alot of time reading posts across unl-HSNL, got
some coaching and did some sweat sessions with friends.

The results are my last ~100k hands...

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I think the things I learned in the second batch of hands are:

1. Turn aggression is important. Alot of players have gotten flop aggression down, ie c-
betting, check raising flush draws etc, but alot of uNl players are not aggressive enough
on the turn. Looking at the two stats samples you can see in the 2nd one my turn
aggression is significantly higher and I think that has been one of my biggest
improvements. Work on identifying profitable places to fire again on the turn (Scare
cards against habitual floaters etc) and it will pay dividends.

2. Showdown Comparing the 2nd sample to the first you can see that i went to
showdown less and won more often when I got there. Look to make river folds!! Too
many times I used to make alot of very bad, "meh, whatever pot odds" calls on the river
when it was obviously -EV. Working on stopping this has brought my showdown numbers
into the range which I think is about right for a taggy style.

3- Table image Be aware of your image at the table! My default is to c-bet ~100% of
the time and look to aggressively take down pots with or without a hand. If early in a
session I showdown premium hands and establish a tight image then this becomes very
successful as I can abuse this image to steal and rob lots of small-medium pots.
However, I never used to adjust my play if my image wasn't so great. If you have been
caught stealing with trash/double-barrelling with air etc, then ADJUST!! Tighten up a bit
from late position, c-bet less and wait for a good spot to use your bad image to get paid
off. One good tip here is to include your net $won/lost in your HUD. I find it can be a
decent indicator of how you are viewed by the table.

4- Variance In the brew etc people are always moaning about tiny swings over tiny
samples. Man up and play the hands and don't talk about variance until you've played at
least 50-100k hands, and even then probably don't talk about it. The one thing I will say

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is it is quite obvious that the 2nd graph has far less variance than the first due to the
significantly higher ptbb/100. Although even with a >6 winrate I still experienced a ~13
buy in downswing while playing my A game.

In conclusion, whilst I still have alot to learn I feel I've at least grasped the fundamentals
of playing good ABC tag poker. Those of you struggling as breakeven/small winners like I
was, take heart. You are on the right track and with some small adjustments you can join
me in beating the uNL games at a good clip and getting ready to take shots at the higher
games.

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The Basics: session review & " Deconstruction" (matrix)

Poker - how do you play yours? are you a TAG a LAG a sLAG a nit ?

However you play and whoever you play against one often overlooked part of paying
goot is reviewing the hands you play afterwards and looking to see what good decisions
you made - what bad stuff you did and trying to not repeat the bad stuff again and versa
vice.

Often times I find myself playing on autopilot - I get the poker fired up I open up
3279874574305790428590480 tables - I look through the players that are sitting choose
what tables I want to play and off I go. An hour or two later I finish up happy that I ran
goot or mad that I lost monies and I go do something else.

Sound like you?

A lot of mediocre players play like this - they know the basics they know what plays are
goot and what are not - for the most part they make the right plays most of the time -
hey nobodies perfect right. I think this is a one way ticket to breakevensville.

How do we make $ playing poker??

We make more with our good hands and lose less with our bad hands than the other
players we play against. We make less FTOP "mistakes" than the rest of the opposition -
thats it.

It's *very* hard to get out of the "woot I won x buyins today I rule" or the "Holy sheet I
ran so bad I am down $x" mentality when you finish a session. All we ought to really care
about is whether we made goot decisions or not and think after a sesh "woot I made
some great +EV moves today ++ Sklansky bucks for me" or "man I really sucked calling
there and sucking out for 300bb"

But if you play a bunch of tables you don't have nearly enough time to review how +/-
your EV was for the big decisions you made that session. Here are some handy steps
that help me after I play a session to get a handle on how well I am playing - and in
what spots I really need to work on and improve.

i) Open up notepad or use pen/paper or something - open up the tracker s/w and filter it
to show the big pots you just played.

ii) Open poker stove - replay the big hands you wanna look at in the replayer and pause
the action when you had to make a decision. Punch the hand into the stove take your
time and put the villain on a range and check your equity vs that range.

iii) MAKE A NOTE! - and move onto the next big hand.

This takes you 15-20 mins after you're done playing for a 90 min 4table session or
thereabouts. If you got all-in pf AAvKK and stuff ignore those - just focus mostly on the
hands where you had to think a little.

You should end up with a notepad file that looks like...

Session 5th Nov - Party $50NL

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i) raised a 19/16 MP TAGs "CB" with air on rags flop - folded to shove - villain plays v
tight from E/MP - but can't continue with whiffed OC's - OK play.

ii) called a b/3b all-in OOP vs TAG on flop w TPGK, V had naked fd. Good call - he is often
semi-bluffing.

iii) ...

etc.

Save these then once a week look back through your cliffnotes and see if the same spots
come up often - get into the habit of writing down why you did x in y situation and I find
it helps me to think better at the table and overall make less FTOP "mistakes".

Which leads me onto "Deconstruction"

Basicaly taking other peoples games apart - and looking for ways to possibly exploit their
weaknesses.

We all maintain large databases of opponents play - we ought to use these more.

Once a week I sit for an hour - pick out a villain I play against often that I have a LOT of
hands on and I look at what moves they make - how they lost the big pots they played -
how often they fold to a re-raise - what size of raise is need to get value - or to get a
fold. I write up a huge pile of notes on this villain and either import them directly to the
poker s/w or I notepad them and copy/paste them in later when I see them again.

Some villain giving you trouble at the table? - instead of keeping out of their way get
under their skin, figure them out and be better armed next time you play them.

78
THE EVOLUTION OF A POKER PLAYER (aejones)

Disclaimer and qualifier: I have played well over one million hands of online poker, and
almost that many this year alone. I’ve just recently started to reflect on my career in
poker, and I was able to find the points in time in which I really had epiphanies. I
remembered that was a question that is asked in most “wells.” I was asked more than
once in mine, and right now jman is doing a great well in HSNL in which people are
asking him the same question. I’ve decided that I’ll take the time to answer it
comprehensively, since I haven’t made a serious post in MSNL in a very long time- this is
my Christmas present. I’d appreciate it if HSNL people read it and expounded upon it
(and the future- most notably) and if SSNL and MSNL people would ask questions related
to this thread that others could help them answer. The goal of this ‘essay’ is to expedite
the education process of all those who read it indirectly.

(would also appreciate if someone who visit SSNL would link it there, thanks)

The Evolution of a Poker Player

by aejones

Poker is discovered differently by many individuals. Clearly, if you’re reading this, you’ve
received it a specific way. This essay is designed to describe a successful way to go about
educating yourself about this game (a ‘method’ that many of you will be able to identify
with), the pitfalls to avoid along that path, and what you can expect in the future.

Although there are a variety of ways to go about discovering the game, including dreams
of wanting to become the next half-witted accountant from Tennessee with a weight
problem to make seven figures, there are specific channels to go about educating
yourself on it. After many of you found poker and decided you wanted to get better at it,
you picked up a poker book at your local bookstore. This book was in all likelihood
terrible (with the exception of Super System), but nevertheless an integral part of your
poker career. You learned about pot odds, or how to squeeze out an extra bet with two
pair playing 3-6 limit, where the only person who can beat the rake in that game is Jerry
Yang. Basic concepts, but fairly important ones nonetheless. Through these books, you
learned to play tight. Tight was right. It worked. You might have won some money in
home games or online- it seemed fairly simple enough, no one else was folding enough,
so by folding a lot and only playing strong hands, you would have an advantage.

If you really got more hungry, you searched Google for poker articles, or read excerpts
by Phil Hellmuth or Daniel Negreanu from their websites. For me, Daniel Negreanu was
my most important teacher before I was any good at poker. He was one of the few
people 3 or 4 years ago that actually went through some thought process fairly publicly,
and I benefited greatly from knowing how he thought. To this day, I believe that if/when
I play with DN, I’ll have a huge advantage recalling his thought process from hands I
read over and over back in the day (without him knowing the information I’m using).
These kinds of things will help the average railbird, and might even assist you to winning
low stakes NL online, or even tournaments, but it’s not nearly enough to win online.
Thus, you reach the first milestone in your poker career.

Milestone #1: Poker is not played inside of a box, if you want to surpass the
fgators’ of the world, you need to learn to think outside of it.

Around this time you start thinking about things other than your cards. You realize that
other people have cards too! What if you could figure out what they have? A novel

79
concept, indeed, and one that many players have not come into contact with yet. Second
and third level thinking come into the picture, and you get excited about poker. You
realize there are all sorts of player types, and you should try to cater to the way they
play (tight in loose games, loose in tight games) instead of imposing your impressive will
of folding in an already nitty game, or splashing around with bottom pairs and draws
when no one is folding second pair on any street for any bet.

You learn about Gabe’s girlfriend Shania- I can do anything as long as I balance! You
likely overvalue balance, which in time you will learn to de-value, and then value highly
again.

This is around the time most of us learn how to play LAG as well. When you learn the
nuances of playing loose and aggressive and the effects of your image on the table, you
are brought into a whole new world of poker. Everything looks and tastes different than it
did before. Suddenly, you’re looking to fillet a different kind of fish- a TAGfish,
specifically. You realize your image can effect others into making awful plays. Hell, we all
see how bad people play against Poly Baller. You learn to play draws super fast- anytime
you can get it in with more outs than you have fingers on one hand, you’ve done alright!
Hello fold equity! Anytime I go all in, I’ll just be like ‘fold equity, fold equity, fold equity’-
it’s a chant to the poker gods.

You make this transition over and over again. You get aggressive, get tight, get loose,
get tight, get loose, get tight. People change their ideal style based on what is sexy at
the time, and eventually settle on something that fits their personality. When you’re
loose and losing, you blame it on the loose leaks. When you’re tight and losing, you
complain about not getting enough action. The human brain is constantly conditioning
itself to be results oriented and doubt anything that doesn’t work at the moment. We’ll
likely revisit this transition later in our poker careers.

A note about discovering LAG play. It is at this moment that Grimmstar shot off from the
standard evolution of a poker player. He moved straight up from this first milestone,
stunted his growth in poker, and became a terrible, terrible high stakes player. The man
burned nearly a million dollars, true story. There are other examples about players who
left here to success- for instance, I think cts and jman had fairly instant successs at
higher stakes. They were lucky enough to move up and run good, but wise enough to
learn along the way. If you are fortunate enough to run good at 25-50 and continue to
ask questions, study game theory, and be open to moving down anytime you hit a bad
run- then you’re clearly smart enough to ‘learn on the fly’ and discover other milestones
in your poker career as they come.

Oftentimes, the period before this next milestone is characterized by a great humbling at
the poker tables. Downswings from playing too fancy and getting your ass handed to you
by regulars will lead to low confidence. Usually a shot goes wrong or you just start
experiencing extreme variance, running 50 buy ins below expectation in back to back
months, perhaps. It all causes you to retool your game, and hopefully, have this
epiphany.

Milestone #2: Playing the hand in the fanciest manner does not necessarily
equate to making the most money.

This was by far the most difficult concept for me to understand. I spent the greater part
of a year worrying about how loose and aggressive I could play, and checking the size of
my dick every time I showed a bluff. I’m not sure at what point I came to understand
that you could play “straightforward” and be extremely successful. I guess I could think
of a few examples… I remember one time I was taking a shot at 25-50 on about a 50k
roll, with a friend having some of my action (probably a quarter). I was playing
straightforward, and after about 50 hands I was looking at my PAHUD and it said this

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player was like 15/12 preflop… I won’t mention who it was (not a 2+2er) but I asked one
of my friends who played high stakes- and he said this guy is the BEST 25-50 player on
the internet. How can he be the best playing 15/12? That baffled me.

Around here you will learn a very valuable lesson that aggression post flop is not the
same as aggression preflop, and although they are inevitably related, they are not a
direct product of each other. Some people like to LAG it up pre, and then a flop c-bet is
as far as they go aggression-wise. They’re easy to float, easy to bluff-raise, easy to 3-bet
pre. In general, their upfront aggression is strong, but their backdoor aggression is
pedestrian.

(re: upfront vs. backdoor aggression. I’ve been using these terms with friends of mine
for a while now, but I just realized that it might not be standard lingo on here. Upfront
aggression is basically betting with the lead, lots of c-bets and obvious second barrels;
Backdoor aggression is basically tricky stuff- turn check raises, river check raises, leading
the turn without initiative, etc. Some players have absolutely no backdoor aggression,
while I had been using entirely too much of it for most of my poker career- before the
second milestone).

Regardless, once you learn about stats like WWSF and just general dogfights for flops
that you know you both missed, you will have real battles with other regulars. A lot of
you write posts in MSNL that say “Tough battle vs. reg with history.”

I call horse****.

Most of you are standard 19/17 TAGs and your only ‘battle’ with regs are “zomg, one
time he called me down with third pair- an ace peeled the river, but he still called!” In
most of these cases, it’s super standard without real history. Most of you haven’t seen
history. I remember Ansky and irockhoes played a hand months ago where they got it on
4-bet on the flop with KQ on J high dry. THAT is a hand with history. Guy bet-calls AQ
high on the river, THAT is a hand with history. Most of what you guys play is just crappy,
obvious aggression, no offense.

As soon as I learned how you could play relatively straightforward and just add some
tricks up your sleeve (when you image warrants you getting away with it) I instantly
became a better player. If you all haven’t graduated from the whole “2+2 says I should
be super tricky in agro” stage of your careers, hopefully you found this past section very
insightful. The next milestone, however, is by far the most important in any players
career.

Milestone #3: The realization that TheWorstPlayer is awful at poker.

Okay, that was a bit harsh. It was the most concise way to say this: At some point in
your career you will be humbled. If you reach this stage, you’ve likely been humbled
many, many times. There are, however, spots where you should gain extreme
confidence. Times when the heavens open up to you and you are being spoken to by the
poker gods’ themselves. Perhaps when you make your first sick ace high call down (or in
Gabe’s case, your first king or queen high call down), or you bluff (or 3-bet bluff) the
river for the first time successfully. Eventually, however, you will learn that not everyone
on 2+2 is good at poker. You will realize that quantity does not equal quality and that
high post counts are more a function of boredom than wisdom.

This is where you try to find your niche. All great players are not made the same. Most of
us come from different backgrounds and therefore employ different thought processes.
You realize that you also have a valid opinion, and maybe you don’t agree with someone
like Jason Strasser on a hand- but that’s okay, neither does durrrr! Point being, not
everyone can play the same, so at this point in your poker career you gain a great deal

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of confidence. Maybe you start posting in HSNL more regularly, maybe your opinion is
well received; alternatively, if you get to this stage too quickly, you need to have a
strong self-confidence to survive it. I’ve been trying to surpass this milestone for 3 years.
Mostly, I was humbled by players that were better than me (at the time, and still) by
posting in HSNL. I didn’t have experience, but I had ambition. If you have thick skin and
an open mind, this can be a strong learning experience. If you don’t, it can be
confidence-shattering enough to induce people to quit the game.

This is the milestone around most people in MSNL struggle- most, in fact, may never
‘conquer’ this stage. Most will find MSNL grinding to be satisfying enough.

(note: reading this does not mean you’ve passed the third milestone, you have to realize
it for yourself)

Once you realize everyone sucks, you’ll start to see it everywhere. In fact, there are
winning 10-20 and 25-50 players, regulars, who are very bad. They do most things as
good as a 3-6 player, but game select like a 100-200 player, perhaps. Seeing is
believing. Maybe these guys aren’t that good!

You see certain players playing a lot of hours high stakes- he must be good!

You see Dario Mineri’s Sharkscope- he must be good!

You see Phil Hellmuth’s bracelets- he must be good!

If you can get past those three statements, your chances of succeeding in poker will
increase exponentially.

The final Milestone is one that I’ve only recently come to discover.

Milestone #4: There’s more to life than poker.

A truer statement could have never been written. During nearly this entire maturation
process, most of us who strive to ‘be the best’ were obsessed to some degree. I know
you sat in freshman composition class, did not read the assigned chapters the previous
night, and did math problems with win rates and tried to figure out how much money you
were going to make this week, this month, and this year. I know if you ever took the
time to learn equity calcs that you sat in the back of algebra and figured out how much
fold equity you needed preflop to 4-bet shove Ax in a bvb battle. I know you skipped
your 8am chemistry class because you were up until 6am getting unstuck.

We all know that.

This is the moment when you realize that there is a certain burnout point in the game,
and in order to achieve maximum success you need to play quality hands, not a
minimum quantity. Here is where you will decrease the number of tables you play and
increase your reads on the regulars in the game. Many use this milestone to better their
social life, spend more time with their family, increase their exercise regiment. The fact is
that many of us live unhealthy, we spend all of the time that we used to on athletics and
our family sitting in front of a computer and reading a stupid website with ingenious
posters like aejones. The more endorphins you can release through exercise or sex or
something, the better decisions you will make. The fact is that this website, these
forums, they feel like a fraternity- we laugh together at reef, we cry together at
ddubious.

Get past the internet, get past the 45/12 on your right, and improve your life. Only by
doing so will you ever improve your poker game.

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In summary, many of us will cycle between loose-aggressive and straightforward. We will
repeat this cycle many times until we reach a happy medium. We will second guess this
medium, rightfully so, because it will be wrong. We will change styles again, doubt
ourselves, rightfully so, because again we will be wrong. We will repeat this process over
and over again. The best have found their niche; the best understand their place in the
poker universe.

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BETTING THE TURN vs BETTING THE RIVER (Reguin)

This has been under discussion recently in a number of threads, and I'd like to write my
ideas about this down so that its clearer to me and so I can get some feedback on it.
Basically, I want to examine if we should prefer betting on the turn vs. the river with two
types of hands: middling made hands that you would like to value bet once more with,
and bluffs (obviously by bluffs I mean air that you have decided you would like to bluff
with. I'm not getting into when you should bluff, assume that decision has been made).
Then I'd like to see how Shania fits into all of this. To keep it simple, everything I discuss
assumes Hero is the preflop raiser from the CO after it was folded to him, and villain
called from the BB. Both have slightly deep 150bb stacks. I only do this so we have room
to manoeuvre, the deepness of the stacks won't be much of an issue since I am mostly
discussing times when villain check/calls us down. The postflop action was that Hero
continuation bet on a dry board with one face card and two unconnected low cards and
got called by villain. Villain then checked a blank turn. We can assume that villain likely
has a weakish made hand. Not always, of course, but the majority of the time. I know
that that is kind of vague, but I'd prefer to keep it abstract. Now lets look at our turn
options.

If we are bluffing, is it better to bet the turn or to check it? We do not need to consider
the case where villain is going for a CR because if he is, we should lose about the same
amount of money overall. Actually, we might save some money from bluffing if we
checked the turn and villain bet out on the river, but on such a dry board villain will often
go for a CR again on river if he missed it on the turn, and so I don't consider our EV
much different between a turn bet and a river bet if villain wanted to CR us. So I will
consider only those times where villain is simply check/calling us down with a weak made
hand.

I think that in this case, it is better to bluff on the turn than the river. Why? Well, it is
easier for villain to call the river imo. It is harder for villain to call the turn than the river
with a weakish made hand because villain knows that by calling here, he basically turns
his hand faceup as a weakish made hand. This makes him extremely vulnerable to thin
value bets on the river as well as to river bluffs, things he doesn't have to worry about if
he is just calling a river bet. The other factor is that if we have the nuts we are almost
always betting the turn. That involves shania though, we will get into that later.
Essentially all I've said here is that it is harder to call 1 bet on the turn than 1 bet on the
river (if the turn was checked), so I think bluffing the turn is more effective.

What about your middling made hands? Well, the opposite of the bluff applies, in that
you want it to be easy for villain to call. So for the above mentioned reasons, you would
prefer to check the turn and bet the river. By doing so we lose the ability to multistreet
bet; luckily, with this type of hand we don't want to do that anyways, so we lose nothing.
An important consideration, though, is that by checking the turn we are less likely to be
CRed off the best hand. I say less likely instead of impossible because if villain decent
then he should often go for a CR on river (given the dry board) if he missed it on the
turn. However, even if this is true, it is harder for us to call a turn CR than a river CR for,
once again, the reasons mentioned above; we don't have to worry about another street.
So even when considering being CRed we prefer to bet the river with this type of hand.

Anyways, I feel that it is better to bluff the turn than the river, and better to bet your
middling made hands on the river than the turn, all based on how easy it is for villain to
call. Now I want to examine Shania here, which on such a drawless board means we only
have to consider one more thing; the nuts. By this I mean hands that we are happy to
bet all 3 streets with, assuming villain keeps checking to us. Obviously this is different
than the best hand possible, in that we might not want to get our stack in with the nuts

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so described if we get CRed on the turn. Anyways, thats the term I'm using. It should be
obvious that we prefer to bet the nuts on the turn than to check it. While the arguments
of being easier for villain to call on the river than the turn still apply, the value of the
ability to mutistreet bet is enormous with this kind of hand and outweighs other
considerations. So the nuts, like a bluff, should be betting the turn.

So if the above assumptions are true, we can say that it is optimal to bluff and bet the
nuts on the turn, and to valuebet middling hands on the river. But the problem,
obviously, is that villains adapt. Now we have to ask, how do we balance this out? Or
perhaps most importantly, should we balance this out? That is my main question here,
the reason I took the time to write all this down. If we don't balance this, is it
exploitable, and to what degree? I will examine checking the nuts behind on the turn
later, because we should not be doing that too often, as we would lose too much value.
In terms of balancing I want to first consider bluffing more on the river instead of the
turn (not talking about 3 barreling here), and/or betting weakish made hands on the turn
for value and then checking behind on the river. So mixing up the 'optimal' betting
pattern for bluffs and middling hands.

Lets examine the exploitablility of only betting middling hands on the river and never on
the turn. What can villan do to us if we bet that way? Well, he would then correctly
recognise the turn bet as a nuts or air situation. Thus he can correctly assume that all of
his middling made hands are of equal value in that situation. Ok, but does that actually
give him an equity edge? If we mix it up and bet some of our own middling hands on the
turn, then it becomes correct for him to call down with only the stronger part of his
range. Fine, by balancing our game we dictated the villain's actions and forced him to do
something. But where is the gained equity? I can't find it. If, for example, we are betting
'optimally' without balance, and it is correct for villain to call say X% of the time on the
turn, then he can arbitrarily choose what hands will make up this X%. If, however, we
mix it up, the villain will be forced to make up his X% from the top part of his range. He
cannot just randomly choose when to call down because it is not a nut-or-air situation, so
he has to wait for certain stronger hands. But he is still calling the theoretically correct X
%, right? (the top X% of his range) So we aren't gaining any real equity. Thus I don't
see the point to balancing our game by betting middling made hands on the turn.

Now I want to examine balancing our game by sometimes checking the turn and bluffing
the river, instead of the 'optimal' way. What does this accomplish? Well, say we bet in an
'optimal' pattern. Then villain knows almost exactly what kind of hand we have when we
check the turn and bet the river, because we almost never have the nuts and aren't
bluffing here. I keep saying 'almost' because there will be those times when the river
improves our hand, and we are in fact betting a very strong hand on the river after
checking the turn. This only happens a fairly small percent of the time though, and so I
will ignore it.

Anyways, by not mixing up our game on the river, we have have turned our hand face up
as a valuebet once we bet the river. This allows a villain who knows what your
valuebetting range is to play optimally. However, if you throw in some bluffs, all you
have to do is adjust your bluffing % (even while keeping a constant valuebetting hand
range) in order to make profit off your opponent. I can't tell you what that % is, of
course that depends on the game/villain, but I think we do need to bluff the river
sometimes or else villain will simply play perfect poker. Once we got here, we have to
bluff sometimes for the exact same reason we have to bluff sometimes in spots where we
have the nuts; we are valuebetting and don't want villain to play perfectly, simple as
that.

The real problem with this 'optimal' betting pattern seems to be that our hand is faceup
as air/middling hand once we check the turn, and should we choose to bet the river, it is
faceup as a middling hand. Now the usually downside to turning your hand faceup

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applies; it is easy for villain to valuebet thinly against you, and you are vulnerable to
bluffs. However, compare this to a situation when your hand is faceup by check/calling
the flop and checking the turn OOP. Here the downside to turning your hand faceup is
much more extreme; villain has 2 streets to bluff or valuebet you. In this spot, he has
only 1. That's a very big difference. So while there are obvious downsides to turning your
hand faceup, it is much less of a problem if you do it on the river than on the turn. And
of course, the only option you have in terms of not turning your hand faceup is to check
the nuts on the turn sometimes. So you have to ask, is it worth it to lose all that value of
multistreet betting with the nuts in order to keep your hand a mystery on the river? I
think you have to balance this spot much less than you would in other situations on
poker, where you turn your hand faceup on eariler streets, simply because it hurts you
much less here.

Anyways, I hope that wasn't too rambling, and am very interested to hear your thoughts
on this. This isn't so much a post intending to educate as it is my looking for comments
and criticism on my thoughts, because this is how I see it and want to know that I am
not making some wrong base assumption that is hurting me without my knowing it. I
also know that there are a lot more Shania issues that I haven't touched, so please feel
free to point them out. Anyways, I won't be able to respond right away as I'll be away
most of teh day but I'll check back in later.

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Crushing Short Stacks (Cry Me A River)

I should hit 5K posts sometime in the next couple weeks. Consider this an early Pooh-
Bah post.

Like the weather, everyone talks about short stackers but nobody does anything about
them. This is the thread where you learn not only how to deal with them, but how to
crush them.

There are a couple things you need to keep in mind. Dealing with short stacks is higher
variance than dealing with big stacks. What would normally be small pots become
medium sized pots. Short stacks generally only play, at most, 2 streets. These two
factors mean you tactics against short stacks may be radically different from your tactics
against full stacks. If you do not have the bankroll or the stomach to deal with this you
need to find another game. All the whining in the world is not going to change a structure
that is VERY profitable to the poker sites.

Your only recourse is to learn to beat the short stacks.

If you take nothing else away from this post, think of this. Short stacks are successful
because they have no difficult decisions on later streets, they rely on fold equity and
abuse full stacks who are loathe to take a coin-flip or get it in as a dog even when pot
odds dictate they should.

The thing is, there is no reason you can't do this too.

When you are head's up against a 20BB short stack, you ALSO have a 20BB stack. So all
those moves you hate? Pushing over your preflop raise? Donk-pushing flop?

Well you can do those too.

And they're just as devastating when used against a short stack as when used by one.
Even more so because short stacks don't ever get to win 100BB pots to make up for
those losses. The only real advantage a short stack has over a full stack is the ability to
squeeze two full stacks against each other and force full stacks to fold for fear of other
full stacks. However this advantage is often only one of perception. In such a squeeze,
the other full stack is likely to be as afraid of you as you are of him. So you should
usually concentrate on the short stack.

So even though you may not have odds to call against a short stacker's raise, call him
anyway and then open push flop with ATC and see what happens. Do this sometimes
with big pairs too to put the fear if god in him.

Any chip you take from a short stack hurts him worse than the chip he takes from you.
Any time you get him to fold after he's put a third of his stack in it's a smack in the
mouth. And any time you stack him it's a knife in the gut.

The way to beat any enemy is to analyze their strengths and weaknesses, then avoid or
neutralize those strengths and exploit their weaknesses.

Advantages to Short stacking

Fold equity and Gap concept
Only have to play preflop and flop, no worries about what to do against scare cards etc
on later streets

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Opponents seldom have odds to chase draws
Full stacks who hate shorties and play badly against them

Disadvantages/mistakes from short stacking

No implied odds
Low ceiling to the amount won with monsters
Need to push with a wide range to be profitable
Short stacking is a limited game plan with no depth that tends to rely on mathematics
and tight opponents who fold too much
High variance

From this I have derived three keys to victory against short stacks. They are:

1) Know your shorties. Not all short stacks play the same.
2) Effective stacks and pot odds. Know when you have to get it in with the worst of it.
3) Raise, raise, raise. To exploit shorties, the price of playing poker MUST go up.

Know your shorties

Obviously everything is on a continuum, there are seldom absolutes. However, I am
going to group short stackers into three basic types.

The Good Short Stackers

Good short stackers are the guys you hate. The ones who have a clue and put you to
tough decisions. Fortunately These kinds of short stacks are in the minority. And even so,
you can make their life just as difficult by putting THEM to the tough decisions.

Tight, Bad Short Stackers

Tight, bad short stackers are the short stackers with reasonable preflop stats, something
like 12/6/2. However, they are still very bad. These are the guys who sit in with 20BB
and call preflop raises with 44. These are the guys who don't abuse their fold equity.
These guys are generally sitting with short stacks NOT because they know how to play
short but because they're either scared money or short rolled.

Loose, Bad Short Stackers

Loose, bad short stackers are the nuts with stats like 40/20/4 who are looking for any
excuse to gamble and get their stack in. These guys are basically free money, however,
they can be VERY high variance.

These three different types of short stacks require slightly different approaches to play
against and exploit.

Spotting the loose/bad short stackers is generally quite easy just from their stats.
Differentiating between the good short stackers and the bad tight short stackers can take
a little more time.

You can spot the bad tight short stackers because the make bad plays. In particular, they
will try to set mine or call raises with suited connectors without anything resembling
implied odds and then fold flop.

Essentially, short stacks, particularly short stacks around 20BB should be calling raises
almost never. There are a few situations where calling preflop raises with a short stack is
a good idea and I'll outline a couple here so you can spot them:

- If the short stack has a big pair QQ/KK/AA and the player raising preflop is likely to fold

88
to a 3bet/push the short stack may be wise to just call a preflop raise and try to get it in
on the flop.
- If the preflop raiser is weak-tight and likely to fold flop too much then the short stack
can call and push flop with a wide range and make a lot of profit from these bad folds.

If you see a short stack calling raises outside of these parameters then you're likely
dealing with a bad short stack, or at least a short stack who is not playing optimally.

It's important to know which type of short stack you are dealing with since it helps
determine their hand ranges and how best to implement the other parts of our plan.

Effective stacks and pot odds

This is really the meat of the equation.

If you are having a hard time against short stacks, you are almost certainly folding
too much.

There are three very common situations you face all the time against short stacks. They
are:

1) You raise preflop, short stack pushes all-in. Everybody else folds. Do you call or fold?
2) Short stack limps, you raise preflop, short stack calls and pushes flop.
3) Short stack limps, you raise preflop, you cbet and short stack checkraises all in; OR
You raise preflop, short stack calls, you cbet flop and short stack pushes all in.

Situation 1)

In this situation, the short stack usually has 20BB to 30BB. Larger short stacks don't
usually push preflop like this and if they do you should probably treat them like full
stacks. So the question is, what do we call with here?

This all depends on the range we can put the short stack on. We need to do that first.

If the short stack is of the loose, bad variety his range is very wide. Something like
88+/AT+ is not unreasonable. Some will do this with any pair, some are pushing KQ or
KJ here as well.

However, we will stick to 88+/AT+

The tight, bad short stacker actually has the tightest range here. He isn't good enough to
take full advantage of his fold equity and he's waiting for a hand that gives him a good
chance to double up. He's not looking to re-steal. So a reasonable range here is
JJ+/AQ+.

The good short stacker is the toughest to put on a range. This is because he's good
enough to try and abuse his fold equity. So his range here is going to be somewhat
dependent on your raising range and position. If you're in a position where your raising
range is wide (i.e., button) and/or you're an aggressive raiser his pushing range will be
much wider than if you are a nitty player. In addition, he may take into consideration
whether or not you fold too much to short stack pushes.

For the purposes of the math that follows, we are going to assign good short stackers a
range here of TT+/AJ+. However, keep in mind that their range may be almost as wide
as the loose short stacker or as tight as the bad/tight short stacker. You need to adjust
your reads according to the situation. I will use these three ranges to give you an idea of

89
where you stand in a variety of scenarios.

Scenario 1A)

Short stack has 20BB and is not in the blind. You raise 4BB. Short Stack pushes.
Everyone else folds. The pot is 25.5BB and you need to call 16BB.

You need a hand which has 38.55% equity against short stack's range to make a call
break-even.

If short stack has a range of 88+/AT+

AK has 55.54% equity vs range
AQ has 47.26% equity vs range
AJ has 39.186 equity vs range
AT has 31.63% equity vs range
99 has 45.61% equity vs range
88 has 41.83% equity vs range
55 has 39.88% equity vs range
44 has 39.41% equity vs range
33 has 38.87% equity vs range
22 has 38.28% equity vs range
76s has 32.8% equity vs range

If short stack has a range of TT+/AJ+

AK has 54.19% equity vs range
AQ has 42.49% equity vs range
AJ has 31.18% equity vs range
TT has 43.79% equity vs range
99 has 40.86% equity vs range
44 has 39.93% equity vs range
33 has 39.36% equity vs range
22 has 38.75% equity vs range
76s has 33.39% equity vs range

If short stack has a range of JJ+/AQ+

AK has 50.11% equity vs range
AQ has 33.07% equity vs range
JJ has 42.745% equity vs range
TT has 40.11% equity vs range
99 has 39.32% equity vs range
66 has 39.25% equity vs range
55 has 39.044% equity vs range
44 has 38.525% equity vs range
76s has 32.772% equity vs range

As you can see you're going to be getting it in behind the short stack's range quite a bit.
However, the dead money in the pot dictates your calling range.

Against the loosest range, call 33+/AJ+.

Against the medium range, call 22+/AQ+.

Against the tightest range, call 55+/AK+.

In addition, this assumes villain has a stack size of exactly 20BB. This often isn't the
case. So, how small a stack does villain need to have to make calling with 22/AQ/76s
break-even in those situations above where it is otherwise a fold?

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If villain has an 18BB stack, the pot is 23.5BB and you need to call 14BB. Break-even is
37.33% equity.

If villain has an 15BB stack, the pot is 20.5BB and you need to call 11BB. Break-even is
34.92% equity.

Villain's stack actually has to get down around 10-11BB for the equity value to shift
enough to make 22/AQ/76s calls in these situations.

Scenario 1B)

Short stack has 30BB and is not in the blind. You raise 4BB. Short Stack pushes.
Everyone else folds. The pot is 35.5BB and you need to call 26BB.

You need a hand which has 42% equity against short stack's range to make a call break-
even.

As you can see pot odds are such that you need a much tighter calling range.

Against the loosest range, call 99+/AQ+.

Against the medium range, call TT+/AQ+.

Against the tightest range, call JJ+/AK+.

Scenario 1C)

Short stack has 20BB and is in the big blind. You raise 4BB. Short Stack pushes.
Everyone else folds. The pot is 24.5BB and you need to call 16BB.

You need a hand which has 39.5% equity against short stack's range to make a call
break-even.

Against the loosest range, call 55+/AJ+.

Against the medium range, call 44+/AQ+.

Against the tightest range, call 55+/AK+.

So the fact that the short stack is in the big blind does mean your pot odds are not as
good and you need to tighten up your calling range a little. But not a lot.

Scenario 1D)

Short stack has 30BB and is in the big blind. You raise 4BB. Short Stack pushes.
Everyone else folds. The pot is 34.5BB and you need to call 26BB.

You need a hand which has 42.98% equity against short stack's range to make a call
break-even.

As you can see, due to the larger stack size the fact villain is in the blind doesn't make
much difference. So at 30BB in or out of the blinds can be ignored unless it affects the
short stack's range (i.e,; big blind will have a wider push range against an open raise

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from the button than a raise UTG)

The thing to take away from this is that calling these pushes is never far wrong. And if
there are any mitigating circumstances, particularly other limpers or other players calling
your raise, some of the close folds (like AJ or 76s) can quickly become calls. And this is
assuming fairly tight pushes, you know sometimes these guys are pushing with 76s
themselves.

The point is that you're probably making a mistake by folding too much and NOT by
calling too much.

Situation 2)

In this situation, short stack limps, you raise preflop to 5BB, short stack calls and pushes
flop.

On the flop, the pot is 11.5BB. Villain pushes 15BB. You need to call 15BB to win a
26.5BB pot.

You need 36.14% equity in this pot to make this call.

Obviously there are hundreds of possible scenarios here, I can't list all of them. But here
are some things to keep in mind.

Bad, loose short stacks and good short stacks have a huge pushing range here, though
for different reasons. The loose short stack can't wait to get his stack in and gamble. All
the better if he can push you off pots. The good short stack has a hand sometimes, but
he also wants to exploit his fold equity by making you fold the better hand.

Bad, tight short stacks actually have the tightest range here by far. They are unaware of
fold equity. They're check/folding any flops that miss them. If one of these guys pushes
they usually have at least TP or a big draw.

So let's examine some standard situations to see how much equity you typically have.
I'm going to assume it goes without saying that you are calling the push with TP or
better and any good draws.

Overcards vs pocket pair:

Board: 2c 2d 9s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.343% 24.04% 00.30% 238 3.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 75.657% 75.35% 00.30% 746 3.00 { 6c6d }

Pocket pair vs bigger pair

Board: 2c 2d 9s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 08.384% 08.38% 00.00% 83 0.00 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 91.616% 91.62% 00.00% 907 0.00 { Tc9d }

92
Middle pair with overcard vs top pair

Board: 2c 9s 5d
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.286% 25.29% 00.00% 751 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 74.714% 74.71% 00.00% 2219 0.00 { T9s }

These look pretty bleak, but only if the short stack has EXACTLY those hands. Against
bad, tight short stacks we can often take them at their word and just fold.

However against loose short stacks and good short stacks their range is usually much
wider. So we will try to assign some appropriate flop push ranges:

Loose short stacks will call preflop with a very wide range and push anything that hits
their hand or if they think flop did not hit you.

Good short stacks have a much narrower calling range preflop. They know not to try and
set mine. However, they may call with a wide range if they think you are likely to fold
preflop to their push, particularly if your raising range is wide (i.e.; from the button).

I'm going to eliminate big pairs under the assumption they would have been raised
preflop. This may not always be the case, but usually it should be.

Against a loose short stack, pushing range on this flop and our equity in these hands
looks something like:

Board: 2c 2d 9s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.146% 43.81% 05.34% 62017 7558.50 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 50.854% 45.52% 05.34% 64436 7558.50 { TT-22, ATs+, KJs+, J9s, T9s, 98s,
ATo+, KJo+, J9o, Tc9d, 98o }

Board: 2c 2d 9s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.971% 58.42% 00.55% 95434 895.50 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 41.029% 40.48% 00.55% 66125 895.50 { TT-22, ATs+, KJs+, J9s, T9s, 98s,
ATo+, KJo+, J9o, Tc9d, 98o }

Board: 2c 9s 5d
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.909% 59.67% 00.24% 89201 357.50 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 40.091% 39.85% 00.24% 59574 357.50 { TT-22, ATs+, KJs+, J9s, T9s, 98s,
ATo+, KJo+, J9o, Tc9d, 98o }

Against a good short stacker it comes down to figuring out what he's calling raises with.
He should be calling raises very rarely unless he thinks he can push-steal against you on
the flop. If he's going for a steal, his range is going to be similar to the loose short
stacker. If he's not stealing then you can expect him to push TP or better like the
bad/tight short stacker and you should be prepared to get out of his way.

93
You need to try and track what the good short stacker is doing. If he's calling raises with
a fairly wide ranges and trying to steal on flops then you need to call him down lightly. If
he's playing tight against raises then you have to be prepared to fold marginal hands.

As the short stack's stack gets bigger, you need better equity to call his flop push.

If short stack starts with 30BB On the flop, the pot is 11.5BB. Villain pushes 25BB. You
need to call 25BB to win a 36.5BB pot.

You need 40.65% equity to call.

If short stack starts with 40BB On the flop, the pot is 11.5BB. Villain pushes 35BB. You
need to call 35BB to win a 46.5BB pot.

You need 42.94% equity to call.

So while you should be tightening up your calling range slightly, keep in mind that you
after still have plenty of equity against the short stack's range.

The other big thing to keep in mind on flops is turning the tables on the short stacker....
Call his preflop raise and then push flop. Or push over his preflop raise. Put HIM to the
tough decision for all his chips. This can work just as well against the short stacker as it
does for him.

Situation 3)
Short stack limps, you raise preflop, you cbet and short stack checkraises all in; OR You
raise preflop, short stack calls, you cbet flop and short stack pushes all in.

This situation almost becomes trivial against a 20BB stack. If the pot on the flop is
9.5BB, say you cbet 7.5BB. Short stack then pushes his last 15BB. You need to call 15BB
in a 32BB pot.

You only need 31.92% equity to call which you will have with a very wide range of
hands.

Against a 30BB stack, if the pot on the flop is 9.5BB, say you cbet 7.5BB. Short stack
then pushes 25BB. You need to call 25BB in a 42BB pot.

You need 37.3% equity to call.

Against a 40BB stack, if the pot on the flop is 9.5BB, say you cbet 7.5BB. Short stack
then pushes 35BB. You need to call 35BB in a 52BB pot.

You need 40.23% equity to call.

The last thing to consider here is that even head's up, you don't HAVE to cbet against the
short stack. If you KNOW he's going to push over you and you don't have a hand that
can call him then don't cbet. Either take the free card or let him bet and then YOU push
over him and let him decide if he has enough equity. In fact, you should do this
sometimes when you DO have a hand you want to felt. So he can't put you on a hand in
these situations and sometimes HE has to fold the best hand.

94
Finally, when it comes to your preflop raising, keep in mind what, if any short stacks are
in the hand (or left to act behind you) and whether they're likely to push on you either
preflop or on the flop. If they are, then you may want to consider tightening up your
range and not raising hands like 76s. Rather only raise hands that you will be able to get
all-in on a wide variety of flops. Or if you do still raise 76s, try to do so in situations
where you're likely to have good odds postflop even if the short stack pushes. For
example, multi-way with several players calling the raise. In this case, also consider
raising a smaller amount that your usual 4BB+1 to juice the pot rather than isolate.

Raise, raise, raise

Short stacks do not want to call raises unless they're planning to push-steal a lot of flops.
The worst thing you can do to a short stacker is raise his limps, raise his blinds and 3bet
his raises. Remember, he has no or very bad implied odds. And in raised pots he
shouldn't have much fold equity against you. This is the worst possible situation for him
to be in.

You want to raise a short stack as much as you possibly can. Yes this will lead to high
variance situations when he comes over the top, however you usually know when you
have the best of it.

For example, if a good short stacker overlimps from late position, you know he almost
always does not have much of a hand or he would raise. So you need to raise. This
forces him to fold 33 or 76s because he doesn't have odds to call and try to outflop you.
Unless he's going to try push-steal flop. But his range is already well defined. So you
know that on the flop you're going to have good equity to call his push. And if he realizes
you're playing him tough this way he doubly can't afford to call because he no longer has
the benefit of fold equity on the flop. So he needs to fold to your raise; calling becomes a
big mistake.

If he open raises, 3bet him liberally. His choice here becomes one of folding or pushing.
He knows he has little fold equity against you and he can't afford to put in half his stack
and fold flop very often. This becomes a very difficult situation for a short stack
particularly if you keep 3betting him and raising his limps.

You do not want to let short stacks see too many cheap flops. You also do not want to
give them the opportunity to be the aggressor and exploit the gap concept and their fold
equity. Raise them. Put them all-in before they put you all in.

Leveling
Keep in mind that several posters here short stack some time or all the time (also
lurkers!). If they are aware that you will have read this post they may start adjusting
their ranges against you. For example, if they think you've started folding AQ against
their preflop pushes, they may start pushing with a MUCH wider ranger to exploit your
propensity to fold. On the other hand, if they see you widening your range against them
they may tighten up. Against the bad short stackers you really don't have to worry. But
watch out for the good ones making adjustments to your game.

Final Words
Good short stackers are difficult to play against. OTOH, bad short stackers of both the
loose and tight variety are very transparent and often amount to free money, particularly
if you are willing to play them tough. If you can learn to play well against the bad short
stackers they will more than make up for the good ones. What's more, the good short
stackers are not unbeatable either. You just need to start playing them as short stacks
NOT as big stacks who sit out the turn and river.

95
A lot of it is putting yourself in very marginal positions, but, the short stacks make a lot
of profit getting people to fold too much. The only way to combat that is to not fold when
you have decent equity, ensuring that they share in these tough spots. This can lead to
very good things for you from a meta-standpoint if short stack alters his play so as to
avoid you and not try to push you off hands very often. Thus taking away all the
advantage that comes from short stacking.

96
My Pooh-Bah post (C/R vs. b/3b) (Dan Bitel)

OK, I know it’s time for me to make my Pooh-Bah post, but my problem is, that I’m not
good at these long posts, and I don’t really have a good, original idea what to post
about, so I’m going to write a short piece on C/R vs. b/3b with both monsters and combo
draws.

Firstly though, I want to point out a general fact that is a lot of the time overlooked on
this forum. Every1 (including me and a lot of the well respected posters) on this board
keep harping on about playing combo draws and monsters the same way. We justify
saying that by spouting the words “shania”, “metagame” or “game theory” usually.
However, it’s quite obvious, that with the 2 hands we are looking for 2 different things.
When we have a monster, we want to get paid off, and when we have a combo draw, we
want folding equity. Against a very good opponent (one that is better than us or as good
as us), then playing your draws/big hands the same way is the line that achieves optimal
+EV. However, against a donk, this is not true. For instance, vs. a calling station that will
always stack off with TP, what’s the point getting all in on the flop with 12-15 outs when
you know he will call, when instead you could draw with good odds and stack him when
you hit, b/c he’s that bad. Similarly, vs. a nit, there’s no point bet/3betting all in with a
set on a dry board, b/c you’re letting him fold his overpair. OK, now that I’ve got that out
of the way, let me tell you about some of the considerations when deciding whether to
b/3b or C/R:

Stack Sizes (in relation to the pot):

This is really important. There’s nothing worse than C/R a board with a combo draw, only
to get called, have a lot of money behind on the turn, and the turn bricks. You’re aim it
normally to get AI on the flop with both a combo draw and a monster, so if unsure, it’s
best to take the line that that gets you all in with the most ease. Eg. You have $20
behind and the pot is $10, then a C/R is the best option, as it gives your opponent a
chance to cbet/bluff and your C/R will easily be all in. If however you have $95 behind
and the pot is $17, then a bet/3bet is better. Lead for $17 and then after even a
minraise, you’re 3bet all in, is a PSB.

The other reason that stack sizes are important, is to figure out the FE you have on a
draw. Obviously, the shorter stacked the opponent is, the less FE you’re going to have

Dead Money:

This again is VERY important and a point overlooked regularly. You want to take the line
that traps the most dead money in the pot. E.g. Let’s say that UTG raises, and gets 3
callers, you call in the SB with a suited connector, BB fold. You flop an OESFD. If you
lead out, and the PFR raises, then the 3 callers inbetween will all fold. If, however, you
check, the PFR bets, then hopefully a few of the players inbetween will call with a
draw/weak TP or whatever, and when you then C/R, you trap all of their money in the
pot.

The opposite of this is also true. I.e. you call the button’s raise in the SB and 3 others
also call it, then it’s best to lead out, as you trap the most dead money in the pot that
way.

Image/Reads:

Imagine the PFR is a LAG who cbets a lot, but gives up UI on the turn. Then obviously, a
bet/3bet line is inferior to the C/R, as you lose his potential cbet. If however, the PFR is

97
very agro and can raise semi-weak leads with air/weak made hands, then the bet/3bet
line is superior as we trap more of opponent’s money in the pot.

As well as our read on our opponent being important, our own image is important. If for
instance, we have been seen to C/R big with a monster hand before, then it might be
best to C/R big next time with a combo draw, as we’ll have a lot of FE. Also, the tighter
our image, the weaker our draw can be that we’re either C/R or bet/3betting as we’ll
have more FE. If however, we have a very loose image, then its best to stick to very
strong draws, as we will get looked up more often.

Lastly, as I’ve already stated above, our read on villain is important as to how many
draws we can play fast. If villain is a nit, then we can play a lot of draws fast, if he is a
calling station, then very few.

The Turn

One of the biggest problems with a bet/3bet line, is if our opponent doesn’t oblige, and
he just flat calls our lead. Here, reads are VERY important. If you think he is the type to
just call on the flop with TP, then there’s little point making a big bet on the turn getting
him to fold it, as it’s very likely he won’t. It is instead better to bet an amount that prices
you in, or maybe just check/call. If however, you think that you’re opponent is floating
you on the flop, then it might be best (albeit very high variance) to C/R the turn.

C/R with other hands

I see so many posts on this board that say “Well I flopped TP, but with a weak kicker, so
I checked. He then bet, which I think could be a cbet, so C/R him to find out where I
stand”. IMO this is a terrible (and expensive) reason to C/R. A much better line is to just
lead the flop, or if you want to snap off the cbet, then call, and lead a blank turn. While
this line is quite transparent at higher levels, it is VERY VERY effective at SSNL. Lastly,
I’d like to introduce you to the dbitel rule of check-raising:

“By default, never C/R, only C/R if you have a very good reason to do so”

98
Small PP's - Moving beyond set mining (AZplaya)

In my transition from a full ring nit to a decent(not quite good) 6m player, I have found
it necessary to add a bit of versatility to the way I play small PP's(22-66). In full ring, if
we call a raise with a hand like 55, we are usually in set or fold mode, unless we hit a
flop like 234. However, playing 6m, I have found it necessary to mix up my play with
small PP's in order to add to their effectiveness. The following are some examples of
plays I have been making that I feel can add BB's/100 if used correctly. There are, IMO,
four very important items to analyze when deciding to make a play with a small PP.
These are flop texture, type of opponent, your image, and position.

Flop texture:

Their are 4 types of flops I am looking for when I call a raise with a small PP - Paired
boards, monotone flops, ragged flops, and flopping a set.

Paired boards - Take a look at the following hand:

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $96.50
UTG+1: $36.75
CO: $119.69
Button: $46.62
Hero: $103
BB: $109.04

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 4 4

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO raises to $4, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: Q Q 9 ($13, 3 players)

Hero bets $7, 2 folds.
Uncalled bets: $7 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $13

This is a play I make fairly often with small PP's. A paired flop is a great situation to take
a stab at the pot. We all know that a flop misses our opponents about 60% of the time,
and on a paired flop, that percentage is far higher. A hand like 88 on a QQ9 flop will have
a very tough time continuing when faced with calling a bet. Obviously, unpaired high
cards are folding this flop as well. Even an overpair will get nervous when lead into on a
flop like this. These are the types of flops that either hit our opponents very hard, or
completely miss them.

Monotone boards - If I call a raise with 33 from the BB and the flop comes down J95 all
's, I will often lead out into the preflop raiser. Unless the player has a flopped
flush(very unlikely) or has a big heart, they will have a hard time calling my bet. This is
especially good on a board that is monotone with all low cards, as it is unlikely to have
given the preflop raiser a big pair or a set.

99
Ragged boards - This type of board is less desirable than the above two situations, but
still deserves discussion. I consider a ragged board to be a rainbow flop of uncooridated
cards all less than 10. Example, I limp UTG with 55, a LP player raises, and all fold to me
and I call. If the flop comes down 269r, I will often lead out. Though the board is far less
scary than the above situations, I will do this occasionally because often times my
opponent is on whiffed overs.

Flopping a set - Obviously our best case scenario when calling a raise with a small PP,
and the important thing here is that we lead out with a big hand. If your observant
opponents have seen you slowplaying your big hands, the above plays won't work. Our
bets will pack considerably more punch when our opponents have seen us bet our
flopped flush, set, etc.

Type of opponent:
This play works best against vanilla, straightforward players. We are looking for players
who find two good cards, raise preflop, continue if they hit the flop, and fold if they don't.
This is not a good play to try against tricky players who like to slowplay or float. This is
also not a good play against calling stations. If your opponent will call down with 99 on a
board of KK7, then don't try this play. It is better to wait for monsters and value bet
against calling stations, not to try and take pots away from them.

This is also not a good play against players with a very narrow PF raising range. If your
opponent only raises QQ+ pre-flop, don't try this play. The way you make money against
players who only raise top 5 hands pre flop is to flop a set and stack their overpairs.
Bluffing them off the best hand is not possible in most situations. The type of opponents
we are looking for are players who have a fairly wide pre flop raising range, and who play
very straight-forward post flop.

Your image:
IMO, these plays are better suited for a TAG image. LAG's will have a difficult time
making these moves, as most players think a LAG is bluffing, and will be more inclined to
play sherrif. Also, if you play TAG but have had a good run of cards and have been active
in alot of pots, don't try these moves. I have been most sucessful with these plays when
I have been fairly card dead, have been playing in very few pots, and have been showing
down the goods.

Position:
This is one of the few situations in poker when I think it is better to be OOP. If you are
OOP, you can lead into the pre-flop raiser and put them to a difficult decision. If you
have position, you will usually be facing a c-bet. These plays become a much more
expensive and high variance proposition if you are required to raise a c-bet as opposed
to leading into a pre-flop raiser. Therefore, I think they are much easier/lower risk to
attempt when OOP.

Finally:
My final bit of advice is to not get carried away with plays like these. A key component to
the effectiveness of these moves is that they are fairly uncommon. If you are making
these plays quite frequently, your opponents are more likley to start looking you up.
Also, I don't usually go beyond the flop with plays like these. If a player calls your flop
bet, I would suggest giving up on the turn unless your hand has improved significantly.
That said, it is important to occasionally fire a second barrel in spots like these to avoid
becoming to predictable.

100
Where the !*$# is Valuetown?? (pokey)

Sorry for my extended hiatus from the forums, everybody -- real life came nipping at my
heels a few months ago and I wound up giving up poker playing and poker writing for a
bit. The past few weeks I've been dipping my feet back in the soup, and I think I'm
finally ready to go back to it. Rather than just dribbling back into the forums, I figured I'd
come back with another PSA. You can thank z28dreams for this one: it was his
suggestion. He PM'ed me the following:

Quote:
I believe that my biggest "leak" is in losing value on the turn or river though, but I'm never
sure where I should be betting.
Could you a handful of examples where a river bet might be appropriate, but a typical USNL
player might miss it? I'm not talking razor-thin value bets, but common spots that we should
always be betting. Examples might be mid-pocket pairs on low boards (99-TT), top pair weak
kicker, or strong hands that end up facing a 3-flush/paired/straight-completing board.

I think this is an outstanding question, and it's the kind of question that all uNLers should
be asking themselves regularly.

So, without further ado, let's try and find a roadmap to Valuetown.

When should I bet the turn?

As a general rule, there are a few good times to bet the turn:

1. When your hand is strong enough.

2. When your opponent is likely enough to fold.
3. When neither #1 nor #2 applies, but TOGETHER they make betting +EV.
4. When your hand needs protection.
5. When you are in position and want the option of a free showdown.
6. To better disguise your hand.

Let's look at these one at a time.

1. When your hand is strong enough.

Could this be any more vague? Probably not, but it's as good as we can get. "Strong
enough" is going to be opponent-specific. A few things to consider:

- betting for value should happen less often against multiple opponents than heads-up.
The strength required to consider a hand "strong enough" is going to go up as the
number of opponents rises, simply because the odds of some sneaky lil' monster
increases with the number of opponents out there.
- betting for value should happen less often when your opponent is tight. This one is
obvious -- if your opponent is tight he's not going to call without something, and when
you get called you're less likely to be ahead.
- betting for value should happen less often when your opponent is aggressive. While we
think of aggro-monkeys as always wanting to get involved in huge pots, the reality is
that most of them look so aggressive because they're always either betting ... or
FOLDING. If you bet into a maniac, he's likely to release and move on to the next hand.
If you check into him, he's far more likely to bet it for you, at which point you can snap
off a bluff or two (or three, or four).

101
- betting for value should happen less often when the board is dry. You've got A7 on a
board of J732 rainbow; what the hell is your opponent going to call with? Nothing that
makes you happy, that's for sure. Now if the board were 9872 with two hearts, you've
got more chances of getting a call from someone fishing for a hand.
- betting for value should happen less often when you want a small pot. Generally
speaking, you want a small pot if you have a weaker hand, because if two stacks go into
the middle and you've got TPTK you've usually made a mistake. Before you build a pot,
make sure you WANT a big pot.
- betting for value should happen more often against calling stations. With JJ on a Q942
rainbow board, you don't want to build a pot against a tough and clever opponent, but
against a calling station you're WAY ahead of his range. Make him suffer for being too
loose.
- betting for value should happen more often when your opponents are likely to be
drawing. If you know your opponent is the kind of person who never folds suited cards,
go ahead and value bet any pair on a two-suited board. Just be sure you can fold if the
third card falls....
- betting for value should happen more often when your hand is subtle. If you raised 54s
UTG and the flop comes 876 rainbow, start shooting -- nobody is going to see you
coming, so you're very likely to get called by weaker hands.
- betting for value should happen more often against bad players. Bad players don't
understand hand values, don't understand when to fold, and don't understand when they
are beaten. Charge them for the lesson.

In short, value betting should happen not only when you are sure your hand is best, but
when your hand beats villain's range.

One more point: "raising for value" is harder than "betting for value," because raises
often shut down your opponents, either causing them to fold and stop spitting money
into your pot or causing them to check-call, adding far less to the pot than if you'd let
them keep firing.

2. When your opponent is likely enough to fold.

Again, this is going to be opponent-specific and board-specific. Some important points:

- folding equity is stronger when a scare card falls. If you check-called your 88 on a
board of Q74 with two hearts, consider betting when that K hits on the turn, especially
against the kind of opponent who doesn't bet draws (you know which ones I mean).
- folding equity is stronger with better players. While bad players call too often, good
players often fold too often, especially at uNL levels. Typically bad players are calling
stations and "good" players are weak-tight. Make use of that, and force them to fold on
the turn.
- folding equity is stronger if you've shown strength earlier in the hand. A preflop raise,
followed by a flop bet, followed by a turn bet is EXTREMELY SCARY for most players,
especially ones who "understand" continuation betting. You'll often find players who
"test" the preflop raiser to see if he'll keep firing on the turn; against this sort of
opponent, a "second barrel" often has ridiculously high folding equity. (SIDE NOTE:
against this type of opponent, checking behind on the turn with a good hand is often
extremely profitable, since they will either try to bluff the river or check/call your
"obvious bluff" on the river. The preflop raise / flop bet / turn check / river value bet can
be a very potent combination if used sparingly and if used against the right type of semi-
thinking opponent.)
- folding equity is stronger when the turn could have logically improved your hand. Say
you were in the big blind, the flop comes A72, you checked through, and the turn is
another 7. A bet here is going to have some solid folding equity -- it's unlikely that
anybody has an ace (the flop was checked through), and that second seven is going to
put the fear of trips in your opponents. Not only was it an unlikely card to have improved

102
anybody, but it's also going to get hands like 88-KK to fold quite often. Aces will often
still call you down, but that's a risk you've got to take sometimes. Be realistic, though: if
you were the preflop raiser, the flop was 765, and the turn was a 3, people aren't going
to believe that you've got a 3....(this might be a good time to value bet your pocket pair
99+, though -- just strongly consider checking behind on the river if your opponent calls
this turn bet.)
- folding equity is stronger when the board matches your "likely holding." People typically
assume the blinds have crappy random low cards and people typically assume that the
preflop raiser has AK or a strong pocket pair. Don't pretend that the board pairing deuces
helped your hand when you've got naked overs, and don't pretend that the KQJT board
matches your big blind -- you're not going to get folds.
- folding equity is weaker in a multi-way pot. Don't rely exclusively on folding equity here
unless you've got a good reason to do so.
- folding equity is weaker when your opponents are calling statiosn -- enough said.
- folding equity is non-existent if your opponent's hand is strong. He's never folding the
flush. He's never folding the straight. He's never folding his set. Don't even try.

3. When neither #1 nor #2 applies, but TOGETHER they make betting +EV.

This is commonly called "semi-bluffing." You don't have a strong enough hand to warrant
a bet (usually you're on the draw). You don't have enough folding equity to be +EV (you
think your opponent probably has a good hand). But together, the two sources of value
make the play +EV.

Example:

You've got 6 5 in the big blind. CO (TAG) raises to 3xBB, button calls, SB calls, you
call.

Flop: A 7 9

SB checks. You check. CO bets 8xBB. Button folds. SB folds. You call. (Not necessarily
your best play, but let's say this is what you do for the example.)

Turn: 9

You check. CO bets 20xBB. You should consider pushing.

Let's say that your opponent either has an ace (70% of the time), a big pocket pair (20%
of the time), or junk (10% of the time). Smooth-calling for flush value is pretty weak,
here, because you're out of position and unlikely to get called by a hand that you beat if
you manage to hit your flush. The pot equity isn't here and the implied odds are pretty
poor, so you can't just smooth-call and hope to get lucky on the river. Folding is an
option, but you've got lots of outs to a very likely winner. Also, your opponent doesn't
NECESSARILY like his hand right now! If you push, things change around quite a bit.

First off, your push will be a big enough bet to put the fear of jeebus into your opponent.
If he folds, you walk away with a 48 BB pot with nothing but potential and guts, and
that's always a nice situation. If he calls, you've still got twelve outs to a very likely
winner, and that means you'll win money some of the time.

Now, if you KNEW your opponent would call 100% of the time and be ahead, pushing is
-EV (your hand strength alone doesn't make this a +EV move). Likewise if you KNEW
your opponent would win 100% of the time at showdown, pushing is -EV (your folding
equity alone doesn't make this a +EV move). However, sometimes villain will fold the
best hand (value for you) and sometimes villain will lose the hand when he calls (value
for you). Often, the COMBINATION of these two bumps the play into +EV territory.

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Here you're risking about 80 BBs on the push -- if your opponent folds, you win ~50 BBs.
If you get called, you'll win ~120 BBs about 1/3rd of the time and lose 80 BBs the other
2/3rds of the time. Let's say your opponent folds 25% of the time, here.

EV from push equity: 1/3*(+120) + 2/3*(-80) = -13.3 BBs. This happens 75% of the
time, so the total EV here is 0.75*(-13.3) = -10 BBs.
EV from fold equity: 50 BBs. This happens 25% of the time, so the total EV here is .
25*(50) = 12.5 BBs.

EV from pushing is +2.5 BBs.

Note: if you always lost when you got to showdown, the EV would be 0.75*(-80) +
0.25*(50) = -47.5 BBs.
Likewise, if you were always called when you pushed, the EV would be -13.3 BBs.
It is only because of the combination of some folding equity AND some showdown equity
that this move is +EV.

For semi-bluffs to work, the following must all be true:

- You must have outs. With outs, you can win at showdown if you are called.
- You must have some folding equity. If your opponent never folds, you can't be semi-
bluffing.

4. When your hand needs protection.

This reason to bet is misused more than any other. You raised preflop 4xBB with KK. The
flop comes A K 7 rainbow, you bet 6xBB (ooooh, sucker him in!), your opponent
calls.

The turn is Q putting two hearts on the board. Your opponent checks, you push for 90
BBs, your opponent folds.

"Whew!" you say. "I protected my hand from the draw!" The reality is that "protection" is
an excuse for timid play, here.

And yes, pushing can be TIMID: you know your opponent will fold, and rather than trying
to extract value while you're WAY ahead, you go for the safe win. What hand are you
afraid of, here? JT? Do you really think JT is folding here?? Or maybe you think your
opponent was calling you with J 7 and just improved his hand to a superdraw.
Unlikely as this may be, you're still ahead -- make him pay for his draw! Don't chicken
out just because your hand isn't the absolute nuts.

Here's when your hand needs protection:

- When you are ahead, but many, many hands could destroy you on the river. If you've
got 99 and the board is now 8 5 4 3 , you've got a reason to protect. If you've got
AA and the board is 8754 rainbow, you're not protecting anything against anything -- bet
for value or check behind with an unusual read.
- When you are out of position, be more likely to protect your vulnerable hands. You
don't want to fold the best hand, so getting an opponent to fold when you're OOP is often
a good thing.
- When the board is extremely draw-heavy.
- When your opponent likes to bluff.

These last two combine in some pretty spectacularly ugly ways at times. For instance:
say you've got black aces and the board is J T 6 5 and your opponent is loose and

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aggressive, tricky and bluff-happy. Damn near every card in the deck is a scare card for
you: villain could complete a straight with any 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, Q, K, or A.

Also, any red card could complete a flush. Also, any J, T, 6, or 5 could give villain trips.
That means that -- literally! -- any card in the deck is a potential scare card on the river.
You know that your opponent is likely to have somewhere between zero and 15 outs, but
you have no idea which ones are the magic ones. Given your opponent's style, you're
going to have to call his river bet out of fear that it's a bluff. So what do you do? You bet
the turn -- HARD -- to protect your hand. Doing so reduces his implied odds if he hits and
charges him a big price for hunting. It also makes you look committed, decreasing the
likelihood that villain chooses this hand to get all tricky with a bluff. Feel free to bet the
pot, here.

Don't go nuts with your protection bets: after all, you DO have the best hand -- that's
what you're protecting, remember?

Make a bet that your opponent can talk himself into calling, but that makes calling -EV
for him. After all, we're trying to win MONEY, not POTS.

5. When you are in position and want the option of a free showdown.

Here's another good one that uNL'ers often forget. You've got 88, so you raise 4xBB
preflop. SB and BB call. The flop comes A74 with two hearts. The blinds check, you bet
9xBB, SB calls, BB folds. The turn comes with a black 2 and SB checks. What to do?
Many uNL'ers will check here, hoping to get a cheaper showdown. Of course, this could
create some very tough decisions for you on the river. What do you do when the river
card is a heart, or another A, or a 7, or a 4, or a 2, or an overcard, or something that
looks totally blank, and SB bets into you? Well, you cry, because you've got no idea
what's going on.

However! If you bet the turn, look at all the good things that happen:

- You charge the heart draw to see another card.

- You get more value from a stray 7 (or 4!) that happens to be overly optimistic.
- You might fold out 88-KK, getting them to finally believe that you have an ace.

Even if you are called on the turn, when the river card comes, you'll very often get a
chance to check behind and see how the cards look. You get to set your own price for the
showdown, losing very little to Ax or overpairs, and winning unusually much from weaker
hands and draws. In a sense, this reason combines protection, bluffing, and pot control
into one reason.

Make sure that your betting strategy is internally consistent and well-disguised -- don't
automatically slowplay the turn with stronger hands and automatically bet weaker hands
on the turn, or you'll be obvious enough that you'll induce a ton of turn bluff check-raises
that you won't like. In other words, bet your strong hands on the turn but ALSO bet the
weaker stuff on the turn sometimes.

Don't try this move on tricky-trappy opponents -- they love to smooth-call flop bets with
monsters and then check-raise the turn. You'll hate it. Against these opponents, checking
behind on the turn can be the better move, particularly if you've got outs to improve
(even if it's only a few outs). Luckily, these folks are relatively rare. Against the typical
opponent, calling the preflop and flop bets and check-raising the turn means you can
safely let your hand go, especially if you're making this kind of play with very few outs to
improve (like a pocket pair).

6. To better disguise your hand.

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Here, the idea is that checking the turn would give away too much information about
your holdings. The most obvious example is when you're OOP with a flush draw --
check/calling the turn and leading a river flush card is equivalent to renting billboard
space to announce your hand to your opponents. However, leading out on the turn
makes it much sneakier if and when you hit on the river, and makes it more likely that
you get paid off handsomely when your ship does come in. Also, if your turn bet is a
continuation of previous aggression you will have the added benefit of folding equity to
make your move more +EV. Many people would consider this a variety of semi-bluffing,
but the intent is very different here: should your opponent choose to fold on the turn you
wouldn't be too upset, but this bet will not be all-in, and the purpose of this bet is not to
fold your opponent. Rather, the goal is to make your river payoff much larger if you are
lucky enough to hit your gin card.

Semibluffs want folds; disguise bets want calls.

----------

When should I bet the river?

For river bets, things are a bit simpler: now, your value comes from only three sources:

1. Getting your opponent to fold when he has the best hand.

2. Getting your opponent to call when he has the worst hand.
3. "Value bluffing."

Once again, let's go through them one-by-one.

1. Getting your opponent to fold when he has the best hand.

At the river, you either have the best hand or you don't. If you don't have the best hand
then your only hope of leaving with the cash is to convince your opponent to fold. River
bluffs take lots of courage, but if they are done properly they can be extremely
profitable. Unfortunately, most people either bluff the river WAY too much (spewing cash
left and right since their opponents know not to fold) or WAY too little (never betting
unless they are fairly sure they are ahead, and therefore rarely getting called by non-
monster hands). How do you decide if a river bluff is a good investment?

First off, we should bluff rivers more against good players than against bad players. Good
players can see that they are beaten; bad players cannot see beyond their own cards. If
a bad player likes his hand, he's not folding -- it doesn't much matter what you say about
your holding. Don't bluff the calling stations -- it's an expensive habit.

Secondly, bluff rivers more when your table image is tight and strong. If you've been
showing down monsters for the past hour, getting involved in very few hands, betting
strongly, and flashing nothing but the nuts, feel free to throw your weight around a bit
on the river. You're air-tight play has earned you mountains of folding equity; cash in by
bluffing more freely at the river. However, if you've been mixing it up left and right, and
if you were caught betting with air a few times (especially against THIS opponent!), feel
free to check behind and lose a smaller pot rather than a bigger one. If your table image
is crap, your folding equity is floating in the toilet right next to it -- understand this, and
save your money for when you get a hand.

Third, bluff rivers more when your betting tells a logical story that means you've got a
good hand. Your opponent limp-calls preflop. The flop comes KT8 with two hearts -- your
opponent checks to you and calls your bet. The turn is 4 and your opponent check-calls
your bet. The river is 3 and your opponent bets. He's telling a consistent story: "I've

106
got a speculative hand ... I've got a flush draw ... I've still got a flush draw ... I've got a
flush!" This is the kind of bet that has TONS of folding equity, even if your opponent's
actual holding is 9 7 . Too often, though, we tell an INCONSISTENT story: we raise
preflop. The flop comes 876 rainbow, our opponent checks and we bet. He calls. The turn
is another 7. Our opponent checks and we check behind. The river is a 3, our opponent
checks and we...bet? What strong holding is actually consistent with this betting
strategy? Our opponent knows we're not doing this with an overpair, he knows we don't
have a straight, and he knows we don't have a 7. Our hand screams of missed overcards,
and a savvy opponent is going to call with his T6o and piss us off as he rakes the pot.
"How can you call with that crap??" we scream, but the answer is obvious: "because you
only make that play with air." Make sure that your bets make sense. So if you raised
preflop, bet the flop, and checked the turn, bet a river scare card: an ace, a third suited
card, possibly a king (on an aceless board) -- that sort of thing. Don't pretend that the
river 3 made your straight when the board is now JT653 -- nobody's going to believe it.
Conversely, don't pretend you were limped preflop and were check-calling all the way
with AK; it's just not credible.

Finally, bluff rivers more when you've got a read that your opponent knows how to find
the "fold" button. This is related to the first point, but still separate enough to warrant
mentioning. Some ultra-tight nits cannot ever fold after raising preflop -- they play so
few hands that they are simply incapable of letting go of a hand once they've got one.
Know this, and avoid bluffing them. Alternatively, some maniacally aggressive LAGs will
release a hand the moment they face pressure; fight against them. Against these folks,
river raises or check-raises are often the most profitable play you can make. Use it.

2. Getting your opponent to call when he has the worst hand.

Ah, the art of poker. You've got the nuts -- the absolute, unburnished nuts! Now what?
Well, now you've got to figure out how to get paid. One of the greatest difficulties in
poker is deciding on bet sizing. We've got a dilemma: the bigger our bet, the bigger our
payoff when we get called but the less likely our opponent is to call us. How do we
maximize value when we think our hand is best? We pick our bet size carefully. Some
general hints:

- Bet bigger when our table image sucks. If we've been playing crappy poker, or if we've
been unlucky enough to get caught stealing a few times, or if we've not shown down any
winners lately, our table image will look bad. This is especially true if this particular
opponent has caught us stealing recently. Feel free to make large bets -- it'll look
desperate and scared, and our opponent will call more often than usual.
- Bet bigger if you're "on tilt." I put "on tilt" in quotes because I'm assuming you're NOT
on tilt (we're beyond emotional play, right? ) No, what I mean here is that you can bet
bigger if your play will *look* like a tilt play to your opponent. The last hand your nut
flush lost to a rivered full house? You're on tilt, baby! If you're lucky enough to catch
pocket rockets this hand, play it to the bone -- nobody is going to believe you, and you'll
be paid off because "he's tilting off another stack; I'll bet my 3PNK is good!"
- Bet bigger if your opponent is bad and/or unobservant. Against a good opponent or a
watchful one, you can't get away with sizing your bets based on your hands. But against
an idiot you can bet big with a big hand and small with a small hand and suffer no
negative consequences. Feel free to make these kinds of plays against the hopeless
goobers sitting at your table; just be sure you behave yourself when a smart player is in
the pot.
- Bet bigger if your opponent sees too many showdowns. This is a useful number to have
in your HUD for this reason alone.
- Bet smaller if your opponent is timid. A weak-tight nit is not going to pay off a pot-sized
river bet without a strong hand; make sure you give him enough odds to talk himself into
a crying call.
- Bet smaller if your opponent couldn't possibly have a big hand. If you've got AA on a

107
board of AAQ72, you simply can't get away with betting much under normal
circumstances. Make a small bet and be happy that you got paid off at all.
- Bet smaller if your opponent likes to raise or check-raise weakness. Some opponents
LOVE to push people off their hands on the river; if that's the case, do whatever it takes
to induce a bluff. A common betting pattern that might do this at uNL is "raise preflop,
3/4ths-pot flop, 1/2-pot turn, 1/2-pot river." That small river bet can induce a maniac to
come over the top with a bluff raise, hoping to drag down a big'un. This is especially true
if the "obvious draw" misses on the river.

(Note that many of these hints work the other way around for sizing bluffs.)

3. "Value bluffing."

Of all the ideas in this post, value bluffing is probably the least understood. It's the river
equivalent of a semi-bluff: a bet that is not +EV as a bluff, is not +EV as a value bet, but
is +EV as a combination of the two. How can you possibly have a situation at the river
where your bet is "part bluff, part value bet"? Well, because your opponent isn't holding
a hand; he's holding a range.

I'll repeat that, because it's a really, Really, REALLY important concept: your opponent
isn't holding a hand; he's holding a range. Anybody who says he can size up an
opponent -- look him in the eye, stare him in the soul -- and identify his exact hand
holding ... well, that person is a liar. It's what good players say to freak out their
opponents.

The truth is that unless an opponent is woefully straightforward in playing style, you
won't know their exact holding. Best case, you'll know their range. Of course, this works
the other way around, too: your opponent can't identify your exact holding, either. Now,
the combination of these two scenarios leads to the interesting (though unusual)
situation of the value bluff.

Let's say that your opponent is an ultra-loose but not completely stupid player. He's not
a "good LAG," because they don't exist at uNL (or SSNL, for that matter). Rather, he's a
"semi-thinking LAG." A while back, someone coined the phrase "1.5th-level thinker" to
represent a player who thinks about your hand but always puts you on AK. It was a joke,
but beginning hand readers will often do something very similar to this, putting you on
an overly narrow hand range and sticking to it despite any evidence to the contrary. So,
let's say this is the kind of opponent you have: loose enough that you can't predict his
holdings all that well, smart enough to try to put you on a hand, but amateurish enough
to do a really bad job of it.

The current board is AJ974 with no flushes. You have QJo and you attempted a steal. At
the river, you've got second pair.

Your opponent's range is quite wide, but you think there's an 75% chance you're beaten.
If you bet the pot, there's a 1/3rd chance he'll fold a better hand than yours and also a
1/3rd chance he'll call with a worse hand than yours. How does this work out?

He folds 1/3*(75%) + 2/3*(25%) = 41.7% of the time. Here you win 1xPot.
He calls with a worse hand 1/3*(25%) = 8.3% of the time. Here you win 2xPot.
He calls with a better hand 2/3*(75%) = 50% of the time. Here you lose 1xPot.

Your net is 0.417*(+1) + 0.083*(+2) + 0.5*(-1) = +0.083xPot, making this a winning

strategy.

Note that this strategy doesn't work as a bluff -- villain only folds 1/3rd of the time, and
you're risking the pot on the bluff (you lay 1-to-1 odds on a bet that's 2-to-1 against you

108
winning). Note also that this strategy doesn't work as a value bet -- villain's hand beats
yours 75% of the time, but you're only getting twice your money when you win (you're
getting 2-to-1 odds on a 3-to-1 longshot). In other words, the bet is -EV as a bluff, -EV
as a value bet, but +EV as a combination of the two. Villain's sloppy hand-reading
combined with villain's unidentifiable hand makes this a fuzzy enough betting area to be
+EV.

Here are some Valuetown examples from my $100NL play.

Get the money in while they still have potential.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker
Hand History Converter)

Pokey (SB): $100.00

BB: $85.95
UTG: $46.50
MP: $34.70
CO: $85.25
BTN: $45.35

Villain is horrible: 66/11 preflop, 4 average aggression. He's bleeding money in every
direction and he won't last long.

Preflop: Pokey is dealt A A (6 Players)

4 folds, Pokey raises to $4.00, BB calls $3.00

Flop: ($8) J 8 4 (2 Players)

Pokey bets $5.00, BB raises to $10.00, Pokey calls $5.00

Three-betting is SUCH a strong move that I don't want to scare him off yet.

Turn: ($28) 3 (2 Players)

Pokey checks, BB bets $28.00, Pokey raises to $79.00, BB calls all-in for $43.95
Uncalled bet of $7.05 returned to Pokey

Given his aggression factor, I take the risk of a check-raise. He doesn't disappoint me,
and he quickly calls off the rest of his stack with a cruddy draw. Note that he didn't even
have the proper odds to call my raise.

River: ($171.90) Q (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $171.90 ($3 Rake)

BB had 6 5 (Queen Jack high) and LOST (-$85.95)

Pokey had A A (a pair of Aces) and WON (+$82.95)

By getting the money in while villain still had a draw, I stacked him. If I'd waited until the
river to try and take his money, he would have easily folded his unimproved 65o.
Potential is great for a good player but extremely expensive for a bad one.

----------

Sneaky hands can bet harder.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker
Hand History Converter)

109
SB: $142.00
Pokey (BB): $100.00
UTG: $35.10
MP: $58.95
CO: $28.05
BTN: $38.50

Villain here runs 47/15 preflop and 2.4 postflop.

Preflop: Pokey is dealt 6 5 (6 Players)

UTG calls $1.00, MP folds, CO calls $1.00, BTN calls $1.00, SB calls $0.50, Pokey checks

Plenty of padding from limpers; I might as well see a free flop with my speculative hand.

Flop: ($5) 2 8 4 (5 Players)

SB checks, Pokey bets $4.00, 3 folds, SB raises to $8.00, Pokey calls $4.00

Double-gutter; that's a hand. I bet strong and get a minraise. I can nearly call on pot
odds, and definitely on implied odds since I'm in position.

Turn: ($21) 7 (2 Players)

SB bets $21.00, Pokey raises to $50.00, SB calls $29.00

Bingo! I hit my hand. Villain bets hard and I have the absolute nuts -- I make a raise that
villain can easily call, but that leaves villain with a crying call on nearly any river.

River: ($121) 3 (2 Players)

SB checks, Pokey bets all-in for $41.00, SB calls $41.00

No way does an aggressive opponent check through with a runner-runner flush. I make
the obligatory all-in bet and villain makes the obligatory crying call.

Pot Size: $203.00 ($3 Rake)

SB had 8 2 (two pair, Eights and Twos) and LOST (-$100.00)

Pokey had 6 5 (a straight, Eight high) and WON (+$100.00)

This hand shows a good multi-street strategy that intends to make it very easy for villain
to put all his money in the middle. Note that even though straights and flushes have hit
the board, villain feels obligated to pay off the 1/3rd-pot bet (all-in) on the river with
only two pair. A turn push is quite aggressive, throwing in a more-than-pot-sized raise,
but smooth-calling the turn leaves too much behind to have a reasonable way of getting
it all in on the river. The smallish turn raise followed by the tiny river bet are both easy
for villain to convince himself to call, and I stack him with my straight.

----------

Sneaky hands can bet harder, redux.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker
Hand History Converter)

SB: $68.90
BB: $42.65
Pokey (UTG): $98.50
CO: $45.05

110
BTN: $72.00

Villain is mediocre-to-bad, running 29/9 preflop and with a 2.3 average aggression
postflop.

Preflop: Pokey is dealt 2 2 (5 Players)

Pokey calls $1.00, CO calls $1.00, BTN folds, SB raises to $2.00, BB calls $1.00, Pokey
calls $1.00, CO calls $1.00

Deuces never loses, woo!

Flop: ($8) 4 Q 2 (4 Players)

SB checks, BB checks, Pokey bets $5.00, CO folds, SB calls $5.00, BB folds

GREAT flop. Given that the preflop raiser just checked, I decide to bet for value and to
try to build a pot (hoping for callers) and it works.

Turn: ($18) 4 (2 Players)

SB checks, Pokey bets $12.00, SB calls $12.00

I'm not afraid of the draw anymore, so rather than try to price him out, I offer a 2/3rds-
pot bet. Villain comes along for the ride. Either he's got a Q and he's drawing nearly dead
or he's got hearts and he's drawing totally dead. Either way, I'm happy.

River: ($42) 8 (2 Players)

SB bets $6.00, Pokey raises to $50.00, SB calls all-in for $43.90
Uncalled bet of $0.10 returned to Pokey

Thank goodness for position: we river the third heart and villain makes a pansy-sized
bet. Rather than smooth-call my near-nuts, or make some weak-assed minraise, I push,
knowing that I lose the three-pair hands and bluffs, but that I get called by the flushes.
Since I was going to lose the bluffs anyways, this seems +EV to me. Villain pays me off
with his heart flush.

Pot Size: $141.80 ($3 Rake)

SB had Q J (a flush, Queen high) and LOST (-$68.90)

Pokey had 2 2 (a full house, Twos full of Fours) and WON (+$69.90)

Lessons here: let villains draw if they're drawing dead (or nearly so). If villain shows
interest and you know you've got him dead-to-rights, go for the freakin' jugular. Sneaky
hands have the potential to win bigger pots than obvious hands.

----------

Protecting your hand.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker
Hand History Converter)

Pokey (SB): $99.00

BB: $100.00
UTG: $109.10
MP: $67.10
CO: $134.10
BTN: $155.00

111
Both CO and Button are extremely loose and extremely aggro.

Preflop: Pokey is dealt A A (6 Players)

UTG calls $1.00, MP folds, CO calls $1.00, BTN calls $1.00, Pokey raises to $6.00, 2
folds, CO calls $5.00, BTN calls $5.00

Super-premium hand, so I charge 'em to see.

Flop: ($20) 2 4 7 (3 Players)

Pokey checks, CO bets $12.00, BTN calls $12.00, Pokey calls $12.00

I wasn't c-betting into these two very often, so I figured that with BOTH of them in the
hand I had room to get trappy. I check, hoping for a bet, and they oblige. With a
relatively blank board, I smooth-call to see a turn.

Turn: ($56) 9 (3 Players)

Pokey checks, CO bets $33.00, BTN calls $33.00, Pokey raises all-in to $81.00, 2 folds
Uncalled bet of $48.00 returned to Pokey

This board just became *way* too drawy to allow any cheap cards. I don't want to deal
with a river decision, and I don't want to be looking over my shoulder if the river comes
with a diamond or spade, not to mention a 2, 3, 4, 7, or 9. With this many scare cards, I
just put all my money in the middle after the bet. To my great surprise, BOTH villains
fold for the relatively small additional bet. I guess they trusted me more than they
trusted each other....

Pot Size: $155.00 ($3 Rake)

Read this hand as an example of showing weakness to induce bets, snapping off multiple
bluffs, knowing your opponents, and protecting your hand.

----------

Protecting your hand, redux.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker
Hand History Converter)

Over a short sample, villain is running 40/17 with a postflop aggression of almost 11.

SB: $106.45
Pokey (BB): $169.25
UTG: $102.25
MP: $157.05
CO: $100.00
BTN: $461.15

Preflop: Pokey is dealt J J (6 Players)

UTG folds, MP calls $1.00, CO folds, BTN calls $1.00, SB folds, Pokey raises to $7.00, MP
folds, BTN calls $6.00

Flop: ($15.50) 2 9 7 (2 Players)

Pokey bets $15.00, BTN raises to $30.00, Pokey calls $15.00

I bet my overpair expecting villain to fold; instead he minraises. I smooth-call, intending

to check-raise a safe turn.

112
Turn: ($75.50) 3 (2 Players)
Pokey checks, BTN bets $45.00, Pokey raises all-in to $132.25, BTN folds
Uncalled bet of $87.25 returned to Pokey

The good news is that I still have an overpair. The bad news is that the board is
ridiculously drawy now. I check, knowing that this opponent simply cannot resist the
opportunity to push me off my hand. After he makes his bet, however, I am unwilling to
see a river card -- with well over half the deck as scare cards, I can't trust myself to
make the right decision there. Instead, I put it all in the middle, expecting an improper
call from any solid draw or strong 9, and a fold from everything else. Villain folds, and I
snap off a large turn bluff, picking up a big pot uncontested.

Pot Size: $165.50 ($3 Rake)

On a less wet board I might have gone for a smaller check-raise to gain value; as it
stands, I need to protect my hand from an increasingly unpleasant board. This is the kind
of opponent who puts monsters under my bed; knowing that, I bet all-in to prevent an
extremely expensive FTOP mistake on the river.

----------

Protecting your hand, part III.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker
Hand History Converter)

SB: $148.05
BB: $101.80
Pokey (UTG): $145.40
MP: $78.10
CO: $207.80
BTN: $238.60

Villain in this hand has good stats, if a bit on the nitty side: 19/13 preflop with a 2.5
average aggression postflop. We don't tangle much, but sometimes it's inevitable.

Preflop: Pokey is dealt A A (6 Players)

Pokey raises to $4.00, MP folds, CO calls $4.00, 2 folds, BB calls $3.00

Obvious.

Flop: ($12.50) K 2 Q (3 Players)

BB checks, Pokey bets $9.00, CO folds, BB calls $9.00

Value bet hoping for a call from a good K.

Turn: ($30.50) 2 (2 Players)

BB bets $22.00, Pokey raises all-in to $132.40, BB calls all-in for $66.80
Uncalled bet of $0.00 returned to Pokey

A very important turn: that 2 just counterfeited KQ and almost surely didn't help villain in
any case (good news). There are now two flush draws on the board (bad news). Villain
has bet into me, indicating something strongish (bad news). My hand is quite strong
despite that (good news). If villain is drawing he's only got one more card for a suckout
(good news). I make a pot-sized reraise to end this farce: villain is likely to fold here, but
if he calls he'll still be behind most of the time.

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River: ($208.10) 8 (2 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $208.10 ($3 Rake)

BB had T K (a flush, King high) and WON (+$103.30)

Pokey had A A (two pair, Aces and Twos) and LOST (-$101.80)

Villain calls and sucks out on the river, but when the money went in he was far behind. I
lost the hand, but I won the Sklansky bucks: my play was superior to his. After all, when
the money went in the pot I had a slightly greater than 77% chance of winning the whole
thing. Bad luck but good play -- hey, that's just poker.

----------

Even if you're ahead, sometimes it's -EV to bet.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker
Hand History Converter)

SB: $100.85
BB: $47.20
Pokey (UTG): $149.65
MP: $106.50
CO: $42.35
BTN: $83.50

SB is a maniac: 87/50 preflop, 1.6 average aggro postflop.

Preflop: Pokey is dealt A J (6 Players)

Pokey raises to $4.00, 3 folds, SB calls $3.50, BB folds

Flop: ($9) J A 4 (2 Players)

SB checks, Pokey bets $6.00, SB calls $6.00

Pure value bet, hoping villain plays back. He doesn't.

Turn: ($21) 2 (2 Players)

SB checks, Pokey bets $10.00, SB calls $10.00

Weak bet to induce a raise. He doesn't. This is worrisome: when an aggressive player
slows down, it's time to get frightened.

River: ($41) T (2 Players)

SB bets $20.00, Pokey calls $20.00

The inevitable scare card hits and villain bets it. Villain wins at showdown about 36% of
the time, so the odds are strong that this is just a bluff. That means my hand is best
more than 50% of the time. Despite this, I cannot profitably raise -- villain will almost
never fold a better hand and almost never call with a worse hand, so even though I am
ahead more than half the time, if I bet it will be -EV, winning me the same amount of
money most of the time and losing me more on those unusual occasions when I'm
behind.

Pot Size: $81.00 ($3 Rake)

SB had 4 T (two pair, Tens and Fours) and LOST (-$40.00)

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Pokey had A J (two pair, Aces and Jacks) and WON (+$38.00)

Moral of the story: aggression is good as a general rule, but being overly and blindly
aggressive is -EV. Only bet when there's profit in it.

----------

Checking to induce a bluff from an aggressive opponent.

Opponent is 42.4/10.6/1.6, steals 16% of the time and LOVES to float flops.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker
Hand History Converter)

SB: $114.60
Pokey (BB): $183.55
UTG: $329.40
CO: $100.85
BTN: $160.20

Preflop: Pokey is dealt A Q (5 Players)

2 folds, BTN raises to $3.50, SB folds, Pokey raises to $15.00, BTN calls $11.50

With a premium hand I mix it up by reraising instead of calling, trying to get the upper
hand.

Flop: ($30.50) A T 5 (2 Players)

Pokey bets $25.00, BTN calls $25.00

Standard continuation bet, combined with a standard float from villain.

Turn: ($80.50) 9 (2 Players)

Pokey checks, BTN bets all-in for $120.20, Pokey calls $120.20

I "show weakness" and villain fires all-in. I was surprised to see just how strong his hand
actually was.

River: ($320.90) 3 (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $320.90 ($3 Rake)

BTN had A J (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$160.20)

Pokey had A Q (a pair of Aces) and WON (+$157.70)

This hand shows another example of NOT betting to maximize pot size. It also shows the
importance of knowing what story your betting line is telling -- in this case, I spoke of
weakness to induce a bluff, so I had to call the resulting bet.

----------

Not telling a consistent story.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker
Hand History Converter)

SB: $191.95

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Pokey (BB): $144.45
UTG: $444.30
CO: $43.40
BTN: $87.40

I've been struggling on the table, and I've recently lost some big hands. Villain is super-
bad: 68/9 preflop, went to showdown 37% of the time and won there 39% of the time.
He's sloppy and lucky, and he's got money I want.

Preflop: Pokey is dealt A A (5 Players)

UTG calls $1.00, CO calls $1.00, 2 folds, Pokey raises to $5.00, UTG calls $4.00, CO folds

Time to use my lousy table image.

Flop: ($11.50) 8 9 5 (2 Players)

Pokey bets $8.00, UTG calls $8.00

I hope he pays off my c-bet; he does.

Turn: ($27.50) T (2 Players)

Pokey bets $23.00, UTG calls $23.00

Nothing has changed; I make a big bet to try and get some money in the pot. Villain
calls.

River: ($73.50) A (2 Players)

Pokey bets all-in for $108.45, UTG calls $108.45

River time. Keep in mind that villian is *BAD* -- he's looking for a reason to call, not a
reason to fold. So I give him one. My river bet is too big, and that looks very fishy. Villain
KNOWS I don't have a flush because there's no way I could play a flush draw this way (in
actuality, I definitely could, but like I said: villain is bad). Villain decides I must be
making a desperation bluff with air, and talks himself into a heroic call.

Pot Size: $290.40 ($3 Rake)

UTG had J T (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-$144.45)

Pokey had A A (three of a kind, Aces) and WON (+$142.95)

I told an inconsistent story and villain got levelled into paying off an extra buyin on the
river.

----------

Know they enemy.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker
Hand History Converter)

Pokey (SB): $148.05

BB: $104.15
UTG: $39.00
MP: $259.05
CO: $77.25
BTN: $31.75

Villain hasn't been around long, but he's terrible AND he's on tilt. He just lost a big pot

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and someone at the table is taunting him for it (not me, of course). Villain runs 45/3
preflop and 2 average aggression. He's a target.

Preflop: Pokey is dealt 7 Q (6 Players)

UTG folds, MP calls $1.00, CO calls $1.00, BTN folds, Pokey calls $0.50, BB checks

Speculative hand, low price, lots of padding. I complete.

Flop: ($4) 9 3 Q (4 Players)

Pokey bets $2.00, BB folds, MP calls $2.00, CO calls $2.00

Flop gives me a mediocre hand. I bet weakly to try and pick up the pot and get two
callers. Hmmmm.

Turn: ($10) J (3 Players)

Pokey bets $6.00, MP calls $6.00, CO calls $6.00

Now I've got a flush draw thrown into the mix. I make another weak bet and get two
callers again. I'm liking my pot odds and implied odds.

River: ($28) A (3 Players)

Pokey bets all-in for $139.05, MP folds, CO calls all-in for $68.25
Uncalled bet of $0.00 returned to Pokey

If my hand wasn't good before, it's DEFINITELY good now. Given that villains have been
calling all along, I'm hoping someone just backed into two pair with their Ax hand. No
stronger flush makes any sense, and my hand is wickedly-well disguised. Rather than try
and get both to pay off a small bet, I go for the gusto and shove. MP escapes but CO
pays off my massive overbet.

Pot Size: $164.50 ($3 Rake)

CO had Q T (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$77.25)

Pokey had 7 Q (a flush, Ace high) and WON (+$84.25)

Again, I tell an inconsistent story, again I overbet to disguise my hand, again villain calls
because of emotional reasons, and again my sneaky hand collects me a huge pot. Now,
I'm not saying that overbets are always the best choice, but if you OCCASIONALLY mix
them into your lineup -- particularly when your betting is highly inconsistent -- you can
get a big payout from the right enemy.

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Playing OOP (epdaws)
Playing Out of Position -- Introduction

We are operating under the assumption that everyone knows the following: You ought to
be playing many more hands from LP than from EP. Take a look at your winnings and
total hand investments. The bulk should come from LP. If there is a balance, you are
playing too many hands out of position, and it is likely costing you money.

Think of position like many of us thought of hooking up back in college. You want to end
up on top of the hot girl at the party. If you do, you’ll always get what you want, and
you’ll usually finish ahead of her. Occasionally, though, you have to let her get on top;
she’ll enjoy the position more, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get what you want.

I guess this analogy stops at busting: you’ll always bust, and it takes forever to reload.
Anyway, moving on…

Reads are Essential: Study Hands You Don't Play

To be comfortable playing out of position, you must also be comfortable trusting your
reads and your feel for flop textures. There are ways to make this easier on you. But
before we get there…

There will be hands, and circumstances, in which the highest EV line is to muck a
reasonably strong hand when you are out of position. It will be much easier to develop
reads and handle your positional disadvantage as a session goes on; playing big pots
OOP early in a session is generally a bad idea because you haven’t had the time to
develop reads and a feel for the rhythm of the table. Let’s say you raise A K UTG and
get one caller, and you are both new to the table. You have no read on this player.

Flop comes A 8 3

and you lead for 3/4 pot. Villain comes over the top for a PSR. He might certainly be
wielding his position like a weapon, as many strong players do. But you will quickly be
playing for your stack to find out if he flopped a set on you, and mucking your hand now
is not a bankroll killer by any means. Make a note of his play. Watch how he handles
position in future hands. Most importantly, do your best to pay attention to similar
situations even when you are not in the hand.

Players who like to multi-table often make the mistake of only paying attention to hands
in which they are involved. Some of the best reads you can develop will come from
studying these hands. If you notice a big pot that happened a hand or two ago while you
were devoting your attention elsewhere, pull up the hand history if you can. Sit out for a
few hands at your other tables. Party Poker in particular is very generous about revealing
a player’s hand at showdown; use that information to make detailed notes.

If you are dealing with aggressive postflop players who have a positional advantage over
you, it will benefit you to carefully watch their play as often as you can. Again, this does
not go for every opponent; you’ll run into players who like to raise less often than Clear
Channel likes to raise salaries in a union negotiation. It’s the tougher players who will
challenge you, but you will eventually be able to ascertain the times in which they are
simply trying to intimidate you based on position.

Having said this, sometimes the best advice is the simple "leave and wait for a better
seat." But I’m only doing this against a maniac, not a tough TAG or a good LAG who

118
knows what position is. I want to beat those players at their own game.

Eventually I won’t mind if a strong, aggressive player thinks he can float and bully me.
I’ll adjust and there are multiple lines I can take to win pots from him.

Here is an example from a hand that happened last weekend.

I had the following notes on a player who is 21/12/3 in 500 hands: "Strong player,
capable of making good laydowns. Seems to understand position and has pushed me out
of several pots after I raised preflop. I wanted badly to call him and force him to show
me a set, but I have backed down each time. Likes to raise flop Cbets, or float and raise
turn. Worth watching some more."

I was in MP with A Q , and I opened for $4. He called on the Button, and we were
heads up to the flop.

Flop came J 5 4 , and I led for $6. He raised to $18, a play he had used on me on
my second orbit of the session. He would certainly make this play with a set, but he
seemed to be raising with TP just as often. I thought it was possible I was behind to a JT
suited, AJ kind of hand. I could have been behind a set or two pair, only occasionally an
overpair, and often enough an unimproved PP. I decided it was, overall, much more likely
that he had an unimproved pair, TP or air than a big hand like a set or overpair. In other
words, he can not call a re-raise with much of his range, because by re-raising, I am
telling him that I have a monster pair. If he beats that, he pushes, and I fold. But my re-
raise knocks out his drawing hands and folds out many hands that beat me, along with
changing the table dynamic that had previously convinced him I could be run over.

We were both reasonably deep, with effective stacks $175, and I made it $58. He
seemed to think for a while and folded, but he might very well have been playing it up.

I immediately made a note of the hand, as I felt this opponent was perhaps less likely to
raise my flop Cbet, and more likely to float or fold. Keep in mind that had I attempted
this play early on, I would have had to do it with no information about this player and I
would have been simply hoping I was not up against a set.

The 25% Rule

I tend to make an assumption about players that I am not sure is perfectly accurate, but
it has seemed to help me. It is this, similar to Harrington’s 10% chance of a bluff
concept: If I have a strong enough sample size against an opponent I respect, and he
has position on me, there is at least a 25% chance that any aggression he shows against
me in a heads-up pot is based solely on his positional advantage. How did I come to that
number? I spent a lot of time combing through the PT database, checking out hands, and
making my best guess. I also considered my own tendencies and my proclivity to use
position like a hammer on a stubborn nail.

Again, this is quite a nebulous number and concept, but I try to keep it in mind when I
make a reasonably strong hand against a solid opponent who has position on me. Is 25%
a huge number? It is not, but it brings a bluff, a float, or a semi-bluff into the equation a
lot more often. I don't expect everyone to agree with the range, but I the concept has
worked for me.

I would also assert that this number is going to rise based on the stakes you play.
Recalling my long-ago days of 25NL, I would guess it’s much lower. I don’t use the
number without a lot of hands or a solid read on a player, because at SSNL, most players
tend to play their cards based on the strength of their hand. It’s pretty darn
straightforward. We’re trying to improve our play against the strongest opponents and

119
prepare our game for higher stakes.

Handling Min-Raises: They Don't Always Mean Sets

Here’s a hand that I butchered like an overweight cow on Hamburger Day that indicates
the power of raising in position.

I was dealt A K and made my standard raise, one caller. He seemed solid, but I
didn't have much history with him.

Flop came A 7 6 . I led for $6, and he min-raised to $12. I called but feared a set
immediately. Turn was a total brick, the 2 , I checked, and he checked. River was the T
, I checked, he bet $30, and I called. He showed 9 8 for a straight.

The min-raise froze me on the flop. I was convinced he would only min-raise for value
with a set; instead I let him draw cheaply and I fell for the trap on the river.

I still tend to think that the majority, or at least the plurality, of flop min-raises indicate a
set. Even seemingly solid players – and I’ve seen plenty of 2p2ers do this – min-raise
their set on the flop because they want to build a pot and get value, but they don’t want
to lose their opponent. However, I’ve come to find out that it can mean something else.

Many players know that a min-raise is regarded with dread because of what it
represents, and I’ve run into plenty of players who use it to float or shut down their
opponent. I’ve run into opponents who will min-raise a Cbet with top pair or an
unimproved PP. It’s amazing how effective it can be against us, maligned as the min-
raise is.

So here’s how I handle it: Every time I see a player min-raise a flop Cbet, I will make
note of it. If that player shows his hand down, perfect. It’s a bounty of information. But
let’s say I raise A K in EP and get one caller, and the flop comes K 8 3 or even
T 8 3 . I’ll make my Cbet, and if I get min-raised, I’m coming over the top. If I lead
for 6 and get raised to 12, I’m making it 35. My opponent’s action is then going to tell
me a lot. If they push I fold and make a note that I believe they’ll min-raise sets. If they
fold, I note that they’ll try to take away the pot with a min-bet and will back down to
further aggression. Their best play with a set is to call, cause that makes it very difficult
for me on the turn, but thankfully most opponents at SSNL won’t just call there with a
set. They’ll push.

Does it get expensive sometimes? Yes. But you’ll be surprised how often you can take
the pot and when you get pushed, it’s helpful to know how opponents play their
monsters. Having a note on what a min-raise means is one of the most helpful pieces of
info you can have in this game at this level.

A Default Line for Handling AA or KK vs. Resistance

Playing AA or KK against resistance when you are OOP can be dreadfully difficult – harder
than a group of teen boys at a Scarlett Johannson photo shoot. One of 2p2’s best
posters, Foxwoods Fiend, shared some of his thoughts on handling this spot and I’ve built
them into my default line.

This is assuming the flop is at least somewhat innocuous. If I’m raised with normal or
deep stacks, I’ll call and lead the turn for 2/3 pot. If I get called I have to check the river,
and a call/fold will be reads-based. If I get raised again on the turn, I’m gone. There are
also times when I will muck AA or KK on the flop to one raise, but of course that’s
dependent on the read and opponent. I think folding to every raise when OOP is giving
away too much value.

120
Conclusions

Being OOP bites like a vindictive girlfriend who finds out you’ve been cheating. Lots of
teeth. Not generally much fun, unless you’re into that kind of thing. So do yourself a
favor and play the bulk of your hands in position.

But don’t roll over dead just because you have to act first. Trust your reads. Use
check/raises occasionally. It just takes some adjustments to get your opponents off
balance, and then they’ll be dreading playing any pots with you at all.

121
LOOSE AGGRESSIVE PLAY (BalugaWhale)

(forgive spelling mistakes, I am wearing a cast on one hand... stupid football)

Note: This applies to 6max far more than FR. It applies somewhat to being in MP-LP in
FR.
I don't know about you guys, but everytime I see a flop and there are chips in the pot, I
want them. I don't care if there are 20bb's in pf or 2bb.. I want them in my stack.
Aggression wins money, period. Sure, playing passively against a maniac is right
sometimes... but I want to be that guy people play passively against. It makes life easier
for me, because I decide when the money goes in and when it doesn't.

So, first let's deal with pf. I raise a lot pf (in 6max about 25% of my hands, maybe more
haha). I do this because I am aiming to win the pot, and I'd like some money in there to
win. Plus, raising gives me the ability to take down the pot when we both have nothing
on the flop.

caveat- Know when not to c-bet. This depends on two factors very heavily--
Board Texture and Number of Villains. I might c-bet into 3 weak opponents if the
flop was 842r. I'd check often vs. 2 opponents if it was K87 two-tone and I held AQ.
Knowing when to/when not to c-bet will help your winrate a lot.

Another reason I'm consantly raising and stabbing is that it helps me get paid off when I
hit the flop hard. However, I'm not convinced it helps that much in a world where villains
think about their own cards and not yours.

However, villains will play back eventually. It's important to know what to do-- and this
means knowing your villain.

Lets say I've been hammering on a villain all game, stealing blinds with any A, any K,
and most suited Q's. I open from the CO with A T . Villain calls in the BB. The flop
comes down T 8 3
Villain checks, I lead for the pot ( 9 bb), Villain c/r for 32bb. Many people advocate
folding here. With no image and playing a TAG game, folding may be the correct play
here. But, as it stands, it may not. What hand would villain play like this? Very few that
beat you from the average villain!! Do you think your average SSNL player c/r a
set/2pair on the flop, into a pf raiser?? No! Rarely. I am more frightened if I lead and am
smoothcalled. I call the c/r and play poker on the next two streets, thinking pot control
on the turn, and value on the river. You will be amazed how many times you are shown J
8 here.

The point is this: when people are willing to play back at you with less, you can
value your average hands higher. How much higher is up to you--and up to your read
of a villain. I try to avoid situations like the one above without a read, or when I first sit
down.

important caveat--> when you are raised on the turn... your top pair is still not
good, even considering the previous statement.

Lastly, know when to go TAG. Playing LAG gets a table worked up. If people start calling
pf raises en masse, or reraising you... its time to stop raising 56s UTG and look for value
from your big pairs. You'll still get the action, and now you always have the cards.
Playing tight pf is rarely, if ever, wrong.

I know a lot of you are interested in loosening up your game, I hope this was somewhat
of a brief outline. It's not as long as Pokey's... but then again, Pokey can't count to 1600.

122
So heres a brief outline
1) Attack, pf and the flop. Put money in the pot, scoop it to your side.
2) Know when to c-bet and when not to.
3) Be strong when you connect- your opponents are likely to play back with less than
you're used to.
4) Read the table so you know when to slow down and tighten up.

One more quick thing to highlight- As you raise more pf and c-bet the flop constantly,
people start floating you. Its not hard to notice... often the answer for me is double
barrel bluffing. It is a powerful weapon... use it against the right opponents.
Remember- Only an idiot bluffs a man he knows will call him!!

Disclaimer- the word is still out as to whether or not I'm good at poker. So don't take any
of this too seriously.

123
You Should Open Limp......... (RichC.)

...........NOT!!!

First, to clarify, open limping is when you are the first one to enter a pot and just limp in.
Limping behind someone is a different strategey all together. I will limp behind someone
if I know I can stack them when I hit big.

But, on to Open Limping:

I feel this is one of the biggest leaks in a players game. Open limping is a pure chip
spew. It tends to leave money on the table when you hit big, so you are therefore losing
value.

What do I mean by this? I'll give you an example from a 1/2 NL Live game from a while
back. This was a regular game that I played in about 3 days a week.

Hero is in MP1 with about $150 behind. (I know this is bigger stacks than many uNL
players are used to, but we all know that this is about as micro as it gets live)

It folds to me and I have AA. I limped in for $2.

My friend (who also happens to be MP2) raises to $10
Button calls.
Back to me, I reraise to $30, MP2 thinks and finally calls but I can tell he knows what I
have.
Button folds.

Flop is AAJ, Turn x, river x.

Awesome, i flopped quads. It was checked to the river when i finally bet $20 and he
called and said "Show me your aces"

So, in this very hand, and many more like it, had I just made a standard raise to maybe
$8 in this case, I more than likely get to reraise all-in. My friend had KK, so yes, I left A
LOT of chips on the table that should have been shipped to me by getting it all in PF. I
figure that I cost myself $100 by limping that hand. This is just one example, there are
many many more like it.

Back to my intial point.

Open limping will cost you money in the long run. This is a very hard concept for many
players to grasp. Many do not want to raise SCs UTG, but yet they want to see a flop, so
they limp in. When they miss, they feel that they got a chance to get away cheap while
still playing a flop. IMO, this is bad for business. If you raise, you immediately take
control of the pot until either everyone folds, calls or raises you. When called, you dont
have to hit your hand, just evaluate the flop and determine if your opponent hit his hand.
Either way, you should make a c-bet.

An example or two: (assume full stacks for both examples at 50nl)

You are UTG with 9 7 and raise to $2.00

One caller and the blinds fold
(not taking out the rake)
pot is $4.75

124
Flop is 7Q6r, one spade.

Middle pair for you, lead out for $3.00

This is a fairly standard value bet and you will usually take down the pot.

Hand 2:
Again, you are UTG with 7 4 and raise to $2.00
One call and the blinds fold.

Flop is 744

You just flopped a monster. Our natural tendency is to check raise or check call here.
Wrong. Lead out for $3 again. Why would you bet this monster you ask? Easy, no one in
their right mind can put you on 74s and will believe that you missed this flop and a good
aggressive opponent will try to take this away from you with A high or and over pair like
99. Also, your hand isnt the nuts and you make it pricey for an over pair to draw out
against you that 5% of the time that they do.

Now, think about if you had just limped in with those hands, odds are that you are
leaving chips in your opponents stack that rightfully belong to you.

Both examples are hands very similar to hands I have played. You dont have to play the
LAGtard game that I do to never open limp. TAGs should not be open limping either.

Now, you ask, arent there ever times that you should be open limping? So glad you
asked. YES there are, but IMO, these type of situations occur more in tournaments than
in cash games. When someone is constantly raising and reraising you, then open limping
a big hand is fine IMO, but refer back to my first example and how I left a lot of money
on the table and you will find it is still better to raise and then reraise them to get it all in
PF.

I'll leave you with this example from the same 1/2 NL Live game.

I had been playing a fairly aggressive game and had been getting reraised all night long,
felt like every hand actually. I had managed to build up to about $400 despite have
gotten played back at all damn night when this hand, one of the biggest live pots I have
ever seen (and won for that matter) came up.

I am UTG and raise to $10 with KK

2 callers and then the expected reraise to $90. One more caller. folds back to me and I
am just sick but I'm not good enough to fold KK PF. I just say to hell with and push, 2
folds and then the other two both call. I had them covered. We all flip, my KK>QQ>JJ
and your hero wins about $800. I also won a tournament about 7 hours later.

Sorry slight brag at the end there, but I hope I have provided you with some decent
examples of why you shouldnt be open limping.

~Rich

125
Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (goofyballer)

A recent thread about using the 5/10 rule to call preflop raises with PPs and suited
connectors got me thinking about the kind of implied odds required to call preflop raises
with SCs; people tend to arbitrarily use things like the 5/10 rule, even though I've never
seen any mathematical description of the kind of odds you need to call these raises. I'm
going to attempt to solve that problem (but I still need some help!).

I'll list the conclusions first, and leave the tl;dr math for the bottom for those of you that
want to peruse it. I also encourage math-head-types to check my math to make sure I
didn't mess anything up.

There are two kinds of hands you can flop with SCs: Good made hands (most of which
can be made by calling with ATC, which of course we don't do) and draws. First, made
hands, stolen off some page I googled:

Odds of flopping...
Flush: 0.84%
Two pair: 2%
Trips: 1.35%
Full house: 0.09%
Quads: 0.01%
Straight: 1.31%
-------
Total: 5.6% (1 in 18 times, 17:1)

However, most of the time you will be flopping draws instead of big hands with SCs, and
that's where things get complicated. Let's separate this into two categories: combo draws
and regular draws.

COMBO DRAWS

Odds of flopping...
20 outer (OESD + FD + pair): 0.077%
17 outer (Gutshot + FD + pair): 0.153%
15 outer (OESD + flush draw): 1.424%
14 outer (Pair + flush draw): 1.450%
13 outer (Pair + straight draw): 1.147%
12 outer (Gutshot + flush draw): 2.664%
------------------------
Total: 6.9% (1 in 14 times, 13:1)

These draws are all hands that can be played profitably after the flop; either you are a
favorite against an overpair, or getting AI on the flop is +EV when you take some fold
equity (and thus taking down dead money) into account.

Combining these big draws with good made hands, you'll have a relatively "big hand" on
the flop 12.5% of the time, or 1 in 8 (very close to how often you will flop a set with an
overpair). However, since a set is a near-invincible hand and you still have to improve
with these draws, you can't say that you also need about 7:1 odds to call with a suited
connector. Your average equity on the flop with these made hands and combo draws
against an overpair is 66% (the made hands go from 75%-99%; the combo draws range
from 45%-65%); compare this with sets, where your equity is generally 90+%.

REGULAR DRAWS

126
Odds of flopping...
9 outer (flush draw): 5.2%
8 outer (straight draw): 8.0%
-----------------
Total: 13.2% (1 in 7.5 times, 6.5:1)

These are your standard draws; when you flop a hand with which you can continue, it will
most frequently be one of these. These draws improve to a flush or straight on the river
about 1 time in 3.

Summary

- you have a 5.6% (1 in 18, 17:1 chance) of flopping a good made hand
- you have a ~7% (1 in 14, 13:1) chance of flopping a strong (12+ outs) combo draw
- you have a ~13% chance (1 in 7.5, 6.5:1) chance of flopping a standard OESD or FD

Adding these all together, you will flop a hand you can continue with on the flop 25% of
the time (1 in 4). However, only half of the time will these hands be immediately
profitable (i.e. +EV to shove it in); the other half, you'll have your standard old OESD or
FD which requires playing some poker.

So, a question from me to all you math-heads: How do you combine these
preflop odds with the odds of hitting your hand postflop to figure out the
implied odds required to call with SCs preflop?

If you don't like numbers, skip the rest of the post; what follows is how I calculated
everything.

tl;dr math

Made hands:
I calculated the odds of flopping a straight myself; with 65s, for example, there are four
flops that give you a straight (789, 478, 347, 234). The odds of hitting each of those
flops are 12/50 * 8/49 * 4/48; multiply that by 4 flops, and you get 1.31%.

Combo draws

All examples assume you have 6c5c.

OESD + flush draw + pair (20 outs ZOMG):

You need a flop of 87(6/5), 7(6/5)4, (6/5)43, with two clubs each.
8c 7c 6/5x: 2/50 * 1/49 * 5/48 * 3 = .0255%
Multiply by 3 to get odds for all three flops = 0.07653%. Not very high.

Gutshot + flush draw + pair (17 outs):

You need a flop of 98(6/5), 97(6/5), 8(6/5)4, 7(6/5)3, (6/5)42, (6/5)32 with two clubs.
9c 8c 6/5x: 2/50 * 1/49 * 5/48 * 3 = .00255%
Multiply by 6 to get odds for all six flops = 0.153%.

OESD + flush draw (15 outs):

You need a flop of 87x, 74x, or 43x with two clubs; in addition, you can catch ultra-
deceptive flops of 973 with two clubs or 842 with two clubs.

127
Odds of flopping 87x with two clubs, where x does not complete a flush or straight and
does not pair your hand:
87x: 7c 8c x = 2/50 * 1/49 * 27/48 * 3 = 0.138%
7c 8x xc = 1/50 * 3/49 * 10/48 * 6 = 0.153%
7x 8c xc = 3/50 * 1/49 * 10/48 * 6 = 0.153%
Total = 0.444%
Total for all 3 flops = 1.332%

973: 9c 7c 3x = 2/50 * 1/49 * 3/48 * 3 = 0.0153%

*3 for 9c 7x 3c/9x 7c 3c = 0.0459%
*2 for 842 = 0.0918%

Total odds of flopping 15-outer: 1.424%

Pair + flush draw (14 outs):

Two clubs and one of your hole cards:
6/50 * 11/49 * 10/48 * 3 = 1.68%

Since we already counted pair + FD + OESD and pair + FD + gutshot, subtract 0.07653
and 0.153 to get 1.45%

Pair + straight draw (13 outs):

using 65s, possible flops are 87(6/5), 7(6/5)4, (6/5)43
8/50 * 4/49 * 5/48 * 3 = 0.408%
Multiply by 3 for all three flops = 1.224%

Since we already counted pair + FD + OESD, subtract 0.07653 to get 1.147%

Gutshot + flush draw (12 outs):

You need a flop of 98x, 97x, 84x, 73x, 42x, 32x (where each flop has two clubs).

Same calculation as OESD + flush draw; 0.444% per flop * 6 flops = 2.664%

So, total odds of flopping a combo draw = 0.07653% (20 outs) + 0.153% (17 outs)
+ 1.424% (15 outs) + 1.45% (14 outs) + 1.147% (13 outs) + 2.664% (12 outs) =
6.915% = 1 in 14 times (13:1)

Regular draws

OESD (8 outs):
There are five flops you can catch an OESD with: using 65s as an example, there's 87x,
74x, 43x, 973, and 842.

Odds of flopping 87x (where x does not pair your hand and does not complete a
straight):
8/50 * 4/49 * 34/48 * 3 = 02.94%
Subtract 0.442% for the times it makes an OESFD (which we already counted) = 2.498%
Multiply by 3 for the odds of 87x/74x/43x: 7.494%

Odds of flopping 973: 12/50 * 8/49 * 4/48 = 0.33%

Multiply by 2 for the odds of 973/842: 0.65%
Subtract 0.0918 since we already counted double gutshot + FD: = 0.558%

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Total odds of flopping non-combo OESD = 8.05%

Flush draw (9 outs):

Two clubs + a blank that does not complete a flush or pair your hand:
11/50 * 10/49 * 33/48 * 3 = 9.26%

Subtract 1.424 and 2.661 since we already counted the times where the flush draw gives
you an OESD, and you get 5.175% non-combo flush draws.

So, your total chances of flopping a standard 8 or 9 out draw are 8.05% (OESD) +
5.175% (flush) = 13.225% (1 in 7.5, 6.5:1).

I calculated the average equity of made hands/combo draws against overpairs by taking
the weighted average of each:

0.077 / 12.5 * 65.556 (0.077 / 12.5 = %age of time you flop oesfd+pair, 65.556% =
equity of 6s5s on 9s8s6x board against AcAd)
+ .153 / 12.5 * 57.677
+ 1.424 / 12.5 * 56.26
+ 1.45 / 12.5 * 50.71
+ 1.147 / 12.5 * 45.86
+ 2.664 / 12.5 * 47.78
+ 0.84 / 12.5 * 97.17
+ 2 / 12.5 * 74.55
+ 1.35 / 12.5 * 87.78
+ 0.09 / 12.5 * 91.414
+ 0.01 / 12.5 * 99.899
+ 1.31 / 12.5 * 96.717

129
Reraised Blind Battles and Bluffing with Marginal Hands
(sam h)

Hi. I am a lapsed limit player trying to get back into poker and trying to get serious about
learning NL, especially about examining a lot of the math underlying various situations.
Hopefully I will have some dedication and be around the forum relatively frequently for a
while. I have gotten a lot from lurking around here and in MSNL the last month or so,
and so thought I would try to "give back" by sharing some calculations and thoughts that
I have been working on.

There was a recent post where players were wondering about calling 3-bets after raising
in position. I think many of us realize that we can’t call these bets if we are going to play
weakly after the flop (only continue with a set or on really favorable boards) but the
question of when to continue or bluff with marginal hands is tricky. Since most 100 and
200NL opponents are nits when it comes to 3-betting preflop, these situations are only
applicable selectively. But those spots are still important against the more agro preflop
players. And with 3-betting frequencies increasing so much as stakes rise, this seems like
one of the issues that SSNL players need to figure out in order to move up.

So let’s look at a situation (Stacks=100 units) in which you raise the button 3.5 units,
the SB folds, the BB bumps to 11 units, and you call. So we have 22.5 units in the pot
going to the flop. The flop comes down pretty dry, leaving you with a marginal holding,
and the opponont of course c-bets.

The rest of this post is going to look at the equity of bluffing on a relatively dry flop while
manipulating three variables: (a) your hand – AK or 55 for simplicity’s sake (b) your
opponents preflop 3-betting range and (c) your opponents range for calling a bluff if you
raise. These equities can be then compared to folding, which is obviously 0 EV.
Obviously, we also want to know the EV of calling given certain scenarios, but this post is
so long just with bluffing that I will save that and maybe do it later if this post seems
interesting to enough other posters.

You Missed, but How Often Did Your Opponent?

So let’s imagine the flop comes down T73r and your opponent makes a standard
continuation bet of 16 units (into 22.5). Is raising crazy here? Well how often did he
actually hit that flop hard? Let’s look at results for three preflop ranges with updated
probabilities based on the flop cards. (These ranges and labels may not be accurate for
many games but it captures to some degree three different ideal-typical players as far as
3-betting. I did not include a simulation for a total nit, like TT+ AK+ because intuitively I
am pretty sure you don’t want to challenge this player post-flop with marginal holdings).

Two simple observations to start: (a) Your opponent’s preflop range changes things
dramatically but (b) generally speaking opponents will frequently have very little on a
board like this.

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I think the gut reaction of many players is to fold your whiffed overcards here for sure on
the T73r flop and sometimes also your small pairs. But what if you raise?

The EV of raising is going to depend on how much you are risking, his calling range and
thus your fold equity (FE), and your pot equity (PE) against his calling range. A pot sized
raise be a total risk of 70.5 units, which is awkward. So let’s look at the equity of a
couple different bluffs – first a push for 89 units and then a small raise to 45 units.

Pushing Has to be Crazy, Right?

Let’s assume that you have AdKh and push and look at each of the preflop raising
profiles based on whether they would call this push with only a very strong hand (first
column in table above) or also a medium strength hand (second column in table above).

(Note that now that we have AdKh, we have to discount the chance that he has an ace or
a king in his hand so the probability of calling in each situation is slightly different
although not very different than the probabilities in the table above).

Your equity for each situation is going to be the sum of your FE and PE, which amounts
to (1-x)(38.5) + (x)(111.5y + 89(1-y)), where x is the probability he calls and y is the
probability you win against his range when called. Using pokerstove to get your PE if
called by his range, here is your EV in units under those circumstances.

Wow! As long as the player is loose enough preflop but needs TPTK or better to stack off,
pushing is just printing money when compared to folding. I think that a lot of “good”
SSNL players, including myself, have adopted fairly laggy preflop styles but are not
calling a push light here in the BB as a default play and have trouble figuring out when
that’s necessary.

While AK is a hand that we would always be continuing to the flop with in these
situations, an obvious implication/generalization is that other high-card hands become
more playable if we can identify which flops to profitably bluff raise. So perhaps a fairly
powerful general conclusion can be drawn from this specific circumstance:

Take Home Point #1 – Some of the most “surprisingly exploitable” players at SSNL are
those who, in trying to improve and imitate the styles of known high-limit winners, have
let their preflop aggression outpace their ability to counter post-flop aggression. Against
this type of player, you can profit immensely by running them over on the right dry flops.
This should expand your preflop calling range if you’re really going to capitalize on these
opportunities.

Another interesting conclusion from this is how dramatically the EV of plays changes
based on seemingly small adjustments to ranges. The only difference between the SLAG
and the TAG preflop is a willingness to three-bet with AJ or KQs, and the only difference
between the strong and medium calling ranges of these players is a willingness to stack
off with 99 or 88. But if you push here, the difference in EV between being up against a
SLAG/strong range versus a TAG/medium range is 23 units!

This may say something interesting about the notion of “changing gears.” Let’s pretend
we’re the BB for a second. In some sense, changing gears is about establishing an image

131
for your opponent of the “state of the world” being a given cell of the table above and
then adjusting your play to make a different cell the de facto reality. Moving to an
iterated situation or one in which you are trying to mix strategies against a range
obviously involves a lot more than the simple model presented here, but I think the table
above does show how profitable it can be in some situations for the BB to shift gears and
trap.

Take Home Point #2: If your opponent is a thinking one and has likely become suspicious
of your bluffing in these situations, then you need to track any changes in his 3-betting
tendencies and be careful. Because if a SLAG/strong changes gears to a TAG/medium,
then a must-capitalize +EV opportunity can quickly become a big –EV mistake.

What About Underpairs?

So lets get back to the main discussion. What if, instead of overcards like AKo, you have
a small pair like 55? Is raising still better than folding?

Things are not quite as rosy if you hold an underpair, since your equity against his calling
range decreases dramatically – the draw value of AKo is much preferable to having a
pair. If you know with high probability your opponents’ 3-betting and push-calling
ranges, then pushing may still be profitable. But notice how much it hurts if your
assumptions are wrong. For instance, with AK we may not have a great grasp of the
villain’s 3-betting range, but as long as we are relatively sure that he won’t call a push
with 99 or 88 then it is hard for us to make a big mistake. With 55, pushing into the
nittier preflop three betters is going to be a big mistake even if they are never calling
light.

Take Home Point #3: If you are going to attempt to run the opponent over, consider not
the strength of your hand currently but its equity against your opponents calling range.
Basically, overcards can constitute a semi-semi-bluff.

Are Small Raises Really Donk-Like?

Ok, so bluff raising dry flops looks like something that needs to be added to the arsenal
in some situations. But is pushing necessarily the best idea? Small raises are often
derided but may be pretty effective in SSNL games. Let’s consider a situation where you
raise to 40 units and your opponent will still fold all the hands he folded to a push but will
push all the hands he previously called, with you then folding to that push. What does
your equity look like now? (Since you are folding to the push if it comes, having AK
versus 55 only matters in so far as it slightly changes the probabilities of his holdings.
These calcs assume AK.)

Behold the power of the donk raise! Of course, your opponent may be less likely to fold
to this raise with a medium strength hand (and will not always push over, but that’s the
simulation). But I do think many SSNL players at least will fold hands like 88 or 99 here

132
for 24 more units, feeling that calling commits them to the pot and being unsure what to
do on the turn if they call and don’t improve. If you are up against that type of player,
then the donk raise in this spot is almost always better than folding no matter what you
have. Also notice that, against the looser preflop 3-betters, the small raise is a winning
play no matter what unless they are willing to expand their repushing range even more.
The small raise also obviously has the advantage of lower variance.

Take Home Point #4 – Don’t discount the power of the small bluff raise. If you can find a
player that will still fold medium strength hands to a small raise or is loose enough with
preflop three-bets, then a small raise on dry flops can be devastating.

What About Other Flops?

For the ranges examined here, the T73r flop is pretty generalizable to other flops with
three relatively low cards, no flush draw, and few straight draws. I don’t see why 962,
755, T83, etc would be much different. Even J high flops are pretty similar for players
with the tighter ranges, since they won’t have many more jacks than tens. Flops with As,
Ks, and Qs are a different beast. Also, flops with flush draws that are low may also play
differently. The chances of your opponent having the draw are actually very slim, so it
shouldn’t affect the strength of his hand that much. But we would assume that
opponents are going to call raises lighter if there is a flush draw, since raising the FD in
our position is so typical. Therefore, it probably makes sense to think of a T73ss flop to
play roughly similar to the T73r one examined here, but that the opponent is significantly
more likely to be calling with a range that includes medium-strength hands.

Ok, so that got way too long. The major caveat I would add (other than the very real
possibility that my math is wrong) is that naturally our overall strategy involves mixing
our range and so looking at just one isolated situation should be taken with a grain of
salt. Hope this provides some fodder for discussion.

133
3-betting light (Dan Bitel)

What is 3-betting light?

Firstly, I guess, we have to establish what a 3-bet is. Its a term used here to describe
preflop (although can also describe post flop). And it is basically just a reraise. So an
example is if UTG raises to 4BB and I then in UTG+1 reraise to 12BB, that would be a 3-
bet.

OK, next, what is the "light" part about? Well, most players when they start to play poker
to a decentish level tend to only reraise (3-bet) very strong hands preflop. Something
like QQ+ and sometimes AK and that's about it. 3-betting light means that you do it with
some weaker hands as well, like AQ, 66, 78s etc etc.

Why do we 3-bet light?

Theres a few reasons here. The main 2 though are for image/shania/metagame and b/c
cbets = $$$$$$.

I'm sure every1 says that pushing a combo draw is so good because now you can play
your sets the same way and get looked up light. Now I'm sorry, but this is really a bit of
BS. Good players realise exactly what you were doing, so they will think nothing of it.
And bad players don't fold TP+ anyway. Not to mention that people are still too scared to
play their sets mega fast a lot of the time anyway.

BUT when you 3bet light, it REALLY REALLY affects the way villains view you. When you
showdown 79s after 3betting preflop, it make you look like a maniac, BUT they still have
no idea how to respond. They start to call you down a lot lighter (so obv you have to
readjust your frequencies)

Now onto the cbet=$$$ point. You know how when you raise preflop and cbet the flop
normally, you get looked up by bottom pair, gutshots etc. All sorts of trash, after all, you
have AK, right? BUT, in rr pots, things work differently. Every1 puts you on AA all of a
sudden. So, they call preflop b/c they think they have implied odds and they try and get
a good flop with their 78s or their 22. But they c/f the flop all the time unless they flop a
set or 2pair or whatever.

Important note on cbeting in reraised pots:

DO NOT BET AS MUCH AS YOU WOULD DO IN A NORMAL POT! Your cbets in reraised
pots should be between 1/2 pot and 2/3 pot, NOT more. The reasons for this is that
normally you either have air as you're 3-betting light and so we dont have to take it
down as often if we bet less. OR we have a very good hand, and due to pot/stack size
ratio, we can get AI very easily by not betting all that much.

Who to 3-bet light, with what hands and in what position?

I can't stress how important reads are when 3-betting light. You firstly need to know how
light some1 is raising. Theres not point 3betting light, if the guy who raised is a 11/3
preflop type, or even a 60/5 preflop type. The typed you want to go for are the 30/20
types, or even the 22/17 TAGs. Although a 70/50 player will raise too lightly, he'll also be

134
calling raises to light and not folding to cbets, so he's not a good person to 3bet light.

Also, try to get a read on what their calling ranges of 3bets are and how they play
postflop after calling. If they call a lot preflop and play fit or fold postflop, 3bet these
guys. If they 4bet light and c/r bluff a lot of flops with a good frequency, dont 3bet lighgt
these guys.

This is mainly common sence, but is SOOO important.

The hands you should be 3betting with are ones that CAN win you a big pot. So 78s, 33
etc. Also, hands that have good showdown value, like AQ, KQs etc.

Position is also quite important. Remeber that people raise way looser on the button that
UTG etc. Also, when you have position, you can check behind some flops for pot control
etc.

Anything Else?

One of the keys to 3-betting light is playing well is rr pots. This needs reads. You need to
understand pot control and your image well. I really recomment that you just have a go
and practice makes perfect. Maybe drop down a level if you're a bit scared. And if you
need some help on hands in rr pots, just pots them, or PM a few to some1 you respect,
and I's sure they'll help you out

__________________________________________________

Here is where we are supposed to put example hands. But the beuaty of 3betting light is
that we make most our money when every1 folds preflop or when they fold to a cbet on
the flop, so theres littly point me posting those. Instead I will post a few hands that I
won BECAUSE I 3bet light. But all, feel free to post hands you won or lost:

This guy is a 23/16 TAG, who I had been 3betting light the whole time, and had finally
tilted him:

Full Tilt Poker

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $214.90
UTG+1: $142
CO: $218.55
Button: $343.10
SB: $147
Hero: $484.30

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with T J

UTG calls, 2 folds, Button raises to $9, SB calls, Hero raises to $38, 2 folds, SB calls.

Flop: 5 T 8 ($87, 2 players)

135
SB checks, Hero bets $109, SB calls all-in $109.

Turn: 2 ($305, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $305)

River: K ($305, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $305)

Results:
Final pot: $305
SB showed 9d 8d
Hero showed Th Jh

Note quite how bad his preflop call is. If I have a big hand, he's screwed, if I have a
badish hand, I can still flop better than him and if he doesnt hit the flop (he only hits 1 in
3 times) he's folding to my cbet.

This one is also vs a 22/16 type TAG. I think even a 2p2er. This is a classic example of
some1 playing badly in rr pots. Sure I have AA here, but if I wasn't rr 56s and 22 all day,
I doubt he would play his hand the same way:

Full Tilt Poker

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $42
CO: $254.90
Button: $59.10
SB: $198
Hero: $201.70

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with A A

2 folds, SB raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, SB calls.

Flop: T 4 7 ($36, 3 players)

SB checks, Hero bets $25, SB calls.

Turn: 6 ($86, 3 players)

SB checks, Hero bets $65, SB calls.

River: 2 ($216, 3 players)

SB checks, Hero is all-in $93.7, SB calls all-in $90.
Uncalled bets: $3.7 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $399.7
Hero showed Ad As
SB mucks Jh Tc

136
Preflop 4betting (Theory) (tannenj)

This post was inspired by this thread, some brief AIM conversations with this guy, and a
curiosity I’ve noticed I have about preflop play since I started datamining and dabbling
with 400 NL -- a level known for a distinct spike in aggression, especially preflop -- a few
weeks ago. The following discussion isn’t meant to be a be all, end all on preflop
4betting. If something like that could exist, poker wouldn’t be the fascinating game that
has captivated the majority of this forum. Rather, I hope this post provides some food for
thought about why to 4bet and helps some of SSNL with regard to how to think about
villains’ ranges and how they should affect preflop decisions. If you read this post and
think you got something out of it, you might like my Pooh-Bah Post.

Why 4bet?

It’s fairly simple, really. Two reasons (no order):

1. For value:

Not much explanation necessary. If A) you think you have the best hand and B) the
villain has 3bet and you think it’s likely that he’ll call or shove over the top of your 4bet
with a worse hand, the play is generally to 4bet for value. There are times when it makes
sense to just call a 3bet with hands like AA and KK, but for the purpose of this article I’ll
advocate an aggressive preflop strategy and assume that A) many villains 3bet light, B)
to counter this, it’s helpful to have the light 4bet in your arsenal, and C) to balance light
4betting, you want to 4bet for value with AA and KK, and at times, AK, QQ, etc.

2. As a bluff:

As I touched on, this article assumes that villains 3bet light. In reality, at 200 NL, most
villains don’t 3bet very light. I’ve found that some TAGs 3bet very light/frequently,
especially if A) they suspect you’re raising light from late position or B) they have
position on you. At 400 NL, most TAGs 3bet light. This is a personal observation, and my
experience at the level is relatively limited. If you have played 400 NL, you might
disagree. At the very least, however, there’s a significant increase in preflop aggression
from the 1/2 games to the 2/4 games.

Say you’re sitting with a 26/22 LAGTAG and he’s 3betting the crap out of your open
raises. You have a few options:

1) Leave the table. This is often a reasonable approach, especially if he has position on
you. Too many of us play poker with our egos, and I’ve been guilty of doing so myself.
We play to make money, and if the light 3bettor is competent postflop, it can be pretty
tough to make money. However, we also play to have fun and to improve, so it often
makes sense to stay at the table -- especially if there are one or two weak players
sitting.
2) Open up your calling range. This can be useful, especially if you’re in position. Even
out of position, it can make sense to mix in some speculative calls with the knowledge
that A) you’ll hit sometimes and B) you can check-raise a bunch of flops profitably to
throw the villain off guard.
3) Throw in some light 4bets. This is what I’ve been setting up for, and it’s a key
component of this article. The situation follows: A) the villain knows you’re a TAG (or a
LAG) and are opening with a pretty wide range, B) as a result, he’s 3betting with a wide
range, and C) being 4bet with the bulk of the hands with which he’s 3betting is going to
put the villain in some very tough spots.

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If a villain is 3betting light, your 4bets should have a ton of fold equity (perhaps not after
the villain realizes what’s happening, but at least for the first session or two). Against
some villains, 4betting light is major +EV. With that said, much of the importance of the
move is rooted in metagame. It’s very bad for your raises to be constantly 3bet, and in
general, a villain will be less likely to 3bet after he notices that you’re willing to 4bet his
3bets.

Easy stuff. Show me some math:

When I decided to write this article, the purpose I had in mind was to explore the small
4bet. As I explained, there are two reasons for the preflop 4bet (or any bet or raise,
really): for value, and as a bluff. The first one is easy; when betting and raising for value,
it’s tough to run into trouble.

4bet bluffing preflop is trickier. The issue is that poker is a game of math. There’s this
stuff called pot odds, and more often than not, it dictates your decisions in this game if
your goal is to play soundly.

When you 4bet light, you’re hoping the other guy folds. Unfortunately, though, he won’t
always fold. I suppose there will be times when he’ll call (especially if he’s bad -- but
really, you shouldn’t be doing light 4betting against bad players). Much more often,
however, he’ll shove. And when he shoves, things get fuzzy, because A) at this point,
you’re being laid major odds, and B) obviously, you can’t know what hand he has (unless
you’re Phil Hellmuth and have world class “reading ability”).

When things get fuzzy, it becomes more likely that you’ll make a mistake. When you
make a mistake, you give up expected value. The more expected value you give up, the
lower will be your win rate. I hope the following calculations illustrate some of the
reasoning behind small preflop 4bets:

What follow are some assumptions I made for the purpose of my PokerStoving. At the
risk of stating the (very) obvious, these things will rarely be exactly the case. This is a
theory article.

1) effective stacks are always 100 big blinds.

2) players won’t call your preflop 4bet; if they continue with the hand, they’ll 5bet all in.
3) Nit will 5bet all in with AA and KK and fold everything else (note: you might be
thinking, “If this guy is a nit, why are you 4betting his 3bets light?” The response is,
“Whatever, it’s theory. For the purpose of this article, ‘Nit’ doesn’t mean he doesn’t 3bet
light, it’s just a name I’m giving him to differentiate his 5betting range. For the purpose
of this article, don’t worry about 3bets, how they should affect these players’ 5betting
ranges, etc. -- just go with the assumptions, even if some of them seem contrived.”).
4) Conservative TAG will 5bet all in with the above two hands plus AKs, AKo, and QQ
(and fold all other hands).
5) Aggressive TAG will 5bet all in with the above hands plus AQs, JJ, and half the
combinations of TT (and fold all other hands).
6) LAG will 5bet all in with the above hands plus AJs, half the combinations of ATs, the
other two combinations of TT, 99, half the combinations of 88, and half the combinations
of 87s (and fold all other hands).

I came up with these ranges in the span of a few minutes; if you think they seem
“random,” you’re right. There’s little rhyme or reason to them, they’re just four ranges
that start out tight and gradually increase in scope. Obviously, the number of ranges with
which the following calculations can be performed is essentially infinite. Adding a broader
range of ranges (ugh) to this analysis definitely has some merit, and hopefully someone
will do this if it’s decided that the initial investigation is worthwhile.

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First, let’s look at some scenarios in which you 4bet pot. Note that none of these 4bets
are for value; each one is a bluff. The best hand you hold in the following scenarios is TT.
Even TT is a dog against the widest of the villains’ 5betting ranges, so when you 4bet
with this hand, you’ve decided to turn your hand into a bluff. TT does have solid equity
against the range of LAG, but it’s important to realize what’s occurring. Turning TT into a
bluff by 4betting isn’t necessarily a poor play; it is not, however, a value raise.

You’re UTG with 65s. You open to $7. Two folds to Nit on the button. Nit makes a pot
3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Nit 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You have to call $125 to win a pot of $278. You’re getting 278:125, or 2.22:1.

100/3.22 = 31.06.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 22.496% 22.29% 00.20% 18321336 168354.00 { 65s }
Hand 1: 77.504% 77.30% 00.20% 63532548 168354.00 { KK+ }

Are you priced in to call?

No. You need a little over 31% equity to call, and you only have about 22.5%. You can
fold the hand without making a mistake.

You’re UTG with 65s. You open to $7. Two folds to Conservative TAG on the button.
Conservative TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Conservative
TAG 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
Same as above, $125 to win a pot of $278. You’re getting 278:125, or 2.22:1.

You need 31.06% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 31.144% 30.92% 00.22% 72010208 515570.00 { 65s }
Hand 1: 68.856% 68.63% 00.22% 159831996 515570.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Are you priced in to call?

Yes. You need a little over 31% equity to call, and you have it almost exactly. You’re
priced in to call with only about 31% equity; you’ll get stacked more than twice as often
as you’ll suck out, but calling is correct because folding would be a slight mathematical
error.

Since you’re priced in to call all in after making a pot 4bet with 65s against the range of
Conservative TAG, you’ll be priced in with the same hand after the same action against
both Aggressive TAG and LAG as well. These guys have wider 5bet shoving ranges, so
folding against them becomes a significantly bigger mistake. The good news is that your
65s has more equity against their ranges. The bad news is that they’ll 5bet shove on
your 65s more often, and your hand is still a pretty big dog against the group of hands
with which they’ll be pushing.

You’re UTG with TT. You open to $7. Two folds to Nit on the button. Nit makes a pot 3bet

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to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Nit 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
Still $125 to win a pot of $278. You’re getting 278:125, or 2.22:1.

You need 31.06% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 19.057% 18.86% 00.20% 23252328 242334.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 80.943% 80.75% 00.20% 99548892 242334.00 { KK+ }

Are you priced in to call?

No. TT is generally a much better hand than 65s, but Nit’s range is so narrow that TT
actually performs worse than 65s against the hands Nit could be holding. You need more
than 31% equity to call and only have about 19%, so you can pitch it without making a
mathematical error.

You’re UTG with TT. You open to $7. Two folds to Conservative TAG on the button.
Conservative TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Conservative
TAG 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You need 31.06% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 36.413% 36.21% 00.20% 126502032 693396.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 63.587% 63.39% 00.20% 221421192 693396.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Are you priced in to call?

Yes, 36.4% is enough equity that you should be calling. Like in the first scenario, since
you’re priced in against this guy, you’ll also have to call against the remaining two
fictional players. It’s notable that even against LAG, your TT is a slight dog (about
45.5/55.5).

You’re UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to Nit on the button. Nit makes a pot
3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Nit 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You need 31.06% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 11.486% 11.15% 00.34% 20613120 628650.00 { KQo }
Hand 1: 88.514% 88.17% 00.34% 163058412 628650.00 { KK+ }

Are you priced in to call?

No.

You’re UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to Conservative TAG on the button.

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Conservative TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Conservative
TAG 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You need 31.06% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 20.751% 20.26% 00.49% 99910656 2423022.00 { KQo }
Hand 1: 79.249% 78.76% 00.49% 388386852 2423022.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Are you priced in to call?

No. You need a bit more than 31% equity to call, and you’re only getting about 21%.

You’re UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to Aggressive TAG on the button.
Aggressive TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Aggressive TAG
5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You need 31.06% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 26.751% 26.33% 00.43% 194732364 3147627.00 { KQo }
Hand 1: 73.249% 72.82% 00.43% 538687710 3147627.00 { JJ+, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs,
AQs+, AKo }

Are you priced in to call?

No, you’re still not getting enough equity against the range you’re facing.

You’re UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to LAG on the button. LAG makes a pot
3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. LAG 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You need 31.06% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 32.027% 31.67% 00.35% 351420780 3937734.00 { KQo }
Hand 1: 67.973% 67.62% 00.35% 750276744 3937734.00 { 99+, 8c8s, 8d8s, 8h8s,
AJs+, AhTh, AsTs, AKo }

Are you priced in to call?

Yes. This range is wide enough that you have to call, and when you do call, you’re a big
dog.

Now, let’s look at some similar scenarios. Your hands will remain the same, as will the
villains’ ranges. However, in the following hands, you make a small 4bet to 2.25 times
the villain’s 3bet ($54) instead of 4betting pot. Such a 4bet risks less money while still
denying villains the odds to set mine against you and to call with speculative hands. In
addition, it makes calling a 5bet shove less attractive from a pot odds perspective, so

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you won’t be mathematically obligated to call shoves as often after making a light 4bet.

Important note: you might be thinking, “Fair enough, but a small 4bet doesn’t have the
same fold equity as a 4bet to pot.” IN REALITY, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT BE THE CASE!
For the purpose of this article, IT IS NOT THE CASE. If I were to assume that the villains’
5betting ranges change when you decrease the size of your 4bet, the examples would
become extremely lengthy and complicated. For the purpose of this article, assume that
a small 4bet has the same fold equity as a big 4bet.

You’re UTG with 65s. You open to $7. Two folds to Nit on the button. Nit makes a pot
3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Nit 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You have to call $146 to win a pot of $257. You’re getting 257:146, or 1.76:1.

100/2.76 = 36.23

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 22.496% 22.29% 00.20% 18321336 168354.00 { 65s }
Hand 1: 77.504% 77.30% 00.20% 63532548 168354.00 { KK+ }

Are you priced in to call?

No. You need a little over 36% equity to call, and you only have about 22.5%. You can
fold the hand without making a mistake.

You’re UTG with 65s. You open to $7. Two folds to Conservative TAG on the button.
Conservative TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Conservative
TAG 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
Same as above, $146 to win a pot of $257. You’re getting 257:146, or 1.76:1.

You need 36.23% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 31.144% 30.92% 00.22% 72010208 515570.00 { 65s }
Hand 1: 68.856% 68.63% 00.22% 159831996 515570.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Are you priced in to call?

No. You need a little over 36% equity to call, and you only have a bit more than 31%.
Note that when you 4bet pot, you were mathematically forced to call off your stack after
the 4bet bluff with this hand. When you make the small 4bet, though, you can fold to the
shove without making a mistake.

You’re UTG with 65s. You open to $7. Two folds to Aggressive TAG on the button.
Aggressive TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Conservative
TAG 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
Same as above, $146 to win a pot of $257. You’re getting 257:146, or 1.76:1.

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You need 36.23% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 30.045% 29.82% 00.22% 95998006 721187.00 { 65s }
Hand 1: 69.955% 69.73% 00.22% 224472772 721187.00 { JJ+, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs,
AQs+, AKo }

Are you priced in to call?

No. You still don’t have enough equity to call. In fact, your equity has dropped slightly
despite the fact that the range you’re facing has widened.

You’re UTG with 65s. You open to $7. Two folds to LAG on the button. LAG makes a pot
3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. LAG 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
Same as above, $146 to win a pot of $257. You’re getting 257:146, or 1.76:1.

You need 36.23% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 29.368% 29.06% 00.31% 133367872 1400403.00 { 65s }
Hand 1: 70.632% 70.33% 00.31% 322728794 1400403.00 { 99+, 8c8s, 8d8s, 8h8s,
AJs+, AhTh, AsTs, 8h7h, 8s7s, AKo }

Are you priced in to call?

No. Even against LAG’s range, you can fold 65s to the shove after 4betting.

You’re UTG with TT. You open to $7. Two folds to Nit on the button. Nit makes a pot 3bet
to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Nit 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You’re getting 1.76:1 and need 36.23% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 19.057% 18.86% 00.20% 23252328 242334.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 80.943% 80.75% 00.20% 99548892 242334.00 { KK+ }

Are you priced in to call?

No. You weren’t priced in to call against this guy even after making a pot 4bet, so clearly
you’re not priced in now that your pot odds have become less favorable.

You’re UTG with TT. You open to $7. Two folds to Conservative TAG on the button.
Conservative TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Conservative
TAG 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You’re getting1.76:1 and need 36.23% equity or more to call.

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Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 36.413% 36.21% 00.20% 126502032 693396.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 63.587% 63.39% 00.20% 221421192 693396.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Are you priced in to call?

Yes, barely. Note that TT also became a call against this guy when you were 4betting
pot, but that then, the decision wasn’t a close one. Math dictates that with TT, the four
villains’ 5bets should be dealt with the same way despite the difference in 4bet size
(since you’re priced in against Conservative TAG, you’ll be priced in against Aggressive
TAG and LAG too). However, folding would only be a very minor mistake because the
small 4bet leads to much less favorable pot odds on a call.

You’re UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to Nit on the button. Nit makes a pot
3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Nit 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You’re getting 1.76:1 and need 36.23% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 11.486% 11.15% 00.34% 20613120 628650.00 { KQo }
Hand 1: 88.514% 88.17% 00.34% 163058412 628650.00 { KK+ }

Are you priced in to call?

No way. You need more than three times the equity you have before calling becomes the
right play.

You’re UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to Conservative TAG on the button.
Conservative TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Conservative
TAG 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You’re getting 1.76:1 and need 36.23% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 20.751% 20.26% 00.49% 99910656 2423022.00 { KQo }
Hand 1: 79.249% 78.76% 00.49% 388386852 2423022.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Are you priced in to call?

No, and it’s still not close.

You’re UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to Aggressive TAG on the button.
Aggressive TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Aggressive TAG
5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You’re getting 1.76:1 and need 36.23% equity or more to call.

Equity:

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equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.751% 26.33% 00.43% 194732364 3147627.00 { KQo }
Hand 1: 73.249% 72.82% 00.43% 538687710 3147627.00 { JJ+, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs,
AQs+, AKo }

Are you priced in to call?

Nope. 26.8 < 36.2.

You’re UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to LAG on the button. LAG makes a pot
3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. LAG 5bets all in.

Pot Odds:
You’re getting 1.76:1 and need 36.23% equity or more to call.

Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 32.865% 32.51% 00.36% 360688620 3972930.00 { KQo }
Hand 1: 67.135% 66.78% 00.36% 740938512 3972930.00 { 99+, 8c8s, 8d8s, 8h8s,
AJs+, 8h7h, 8s7s, AKo }

Are you priced in to call?

No. Even against this guy you can fold and avoid getting all in preflop as a 67/33 dog.

Analysis

When you 4bet pot with 65s, you were able to fold to a shove from Nit, but you were
priced in to call against the other three players. When you 4bet bluffed small with 65s,
meanwhile, you were able to fold against all four players’ shoves without making a
mathematical mistake.

When you 4bet pot with pocket tens, you were able to fold to Nit’s shove, but you had to
call against the other three. The same was the case when you decreased the size of your
4bet with the tens: folding was correct against Nit, but you had to call against the other
three (though against Conservative TAG -- the player with the next narrowest range --
the decision to call in this spot was extremely close).

When you 4bet pot with KQo, you were able to fold to shoves from the first three
players, but you were priced in to call against LAG. However, when you made your 4bet
bluff smaller with this hand, you were able to correctly fold against all four players.

When holding TT, decreasing the size of your 4bet changed nothing with regard to the
correctness of calling a 5bet shove against the given ranges. However, when holding the
other two hands, the smaller 4bet provided you with increased leverage; with 65s and
KQo, decreasing the size of your 4bet made it possible to correctly fold to 5bet shoves in
spots where you would’ve had to call if your 4bet were bigger.

The results were especially drastic with 65s, the small suited connector. With this hand,
you were priced in to call three times out of four when making a 4bet to pot. When you
made a small 4bet, though, you were priced in zero times out of four.

Being mathematically forced to call off most of your stack is bad when you know you are
a significant dog in the pot. Being able to 4bet bluff with the knowledge that you can fold
to a 5bet all in is a nice luxury. Decreasing the size of a 4bet makes this process

145
possible, perhaps at the expense of some fold equity. How much fold equity (if any)?
Tough to say.

Won’t villains adjust to my small 4bets?

Probably not, especially at 200 NL. But yes, if you’re pulling this crap often with junk,
smart villains should notice eventually and begin to shove over your 4bets with a wider
range. If they adjust, you adjust. 4betting small with premium hands is a good
adjustment and is important for balance.

So, according to this article, does it never make sense to 4bet pot?

It never makes sense to 4bet pot according to the assumptions in this article. If I had
some way of knowing that light 3betters react the same way to small 4bets as to pot
4bets, I’d eliminate the pot 4bet from my arsenal because if this were the case, 4betting
pot would be inferior to both 4betting small and to 4bet shoving, in my opinion.

However, it’s impossible to prove that fold equity is the same regardless of 4betting size.

With the information I have, I’ll probably begin to replace pot 4bets with a combination
of small 4bets and 4bet shoves. Note that it’s important to make both small 4bets and
4bet pushes with both hands that are marginal and hands that are powerful.

146
Blind stealing (Pokey)

Well, if somebody hadn't changed my title, I'd be a Pooh-Bah now. Due to some…er,
“irrational exuberance” on my part, I’m forced to make a SECOND Pooh-bah post. I
haven’t had quite as much time to think about it the second time around, but I’ve
decided to address an important and often-misunderstood topic in small-stakes no-limit
poker: blind stealing. To those of you who consider blind stealing an insignificant part of
the no-limit poker game, or perhaps just an “image move” to help get paid off on your
big hands, think again – blind stealing can be an extremely valuable part of your poker
arsenal.

I’ll admit it: I’m a ruthless, heartless, helpless, hopeless, habitual blind thief. I stole
blinds when I played limit hold’em, I stole blinds when I played tournaments, I steal
blinds when I play no-limit hold’em. I’ve stolen blinds from my eight-year-old cousin and
from an 85-year-old great-grandmother. I steal blinds when I’m playing my 16/9 full-ring
TAG game and I steal blinds when I’m playing my 35/20 6-max LAG game. I’ve always
stolen blinds, and I always will.

Furthermore, I’m reasonably good at it. In the last 17,500 hands, I’ve attempted to steal
the blinds a whopping 38.31% of the time – that works out to be 313 steal attempts out
of 817 opportunities. Over those 313 blind-steal attempts, I’ve maintained a healthy win
rate of 1.10 PTBB/hand: that’s 110 PTBB/100. Despite the fact that I’ve only attempted a
blind steal one time every five orbits, those steal attempts have generated over 30% of
my total profits at the no-limit poker tables. Like I said: done right, blind stealing is a
VERY important contributor to your overall win rate.

So, now that I’ve got your attention, let’s turn to the issue at hand: how do you steal the
blinds successfully? What’s the formula, what’s the method, what’s the approach? The
answer is that it’s quite easy, and despite that, it’s wildly successful.

Pokey’s Rules for Blind Theft:

1. Know yourself and know your target. Blind steals rely heavily on folding equity.
The more frequently you try to steal the blinds, the weaker the average hand you’ll have
when you attempt a steal. That means that for the frequent blind thief, you’re hoping
NOT to get to a showdown. The good news is that the odds of your remaining opponents
having a decent hand are slim – there are only two or three players left to act, and they
have random hands. The odds none of the remaining players have “good” hands are as
follows:

- “Super Premium Hand,” AA-JJ, AK: 94.1% chance with two players left to act, and
91.3% chance with three players left to act.
- “Premium Hand,” AA-TT, AK, AQ: 90.8% chance with two players left to act, and 86.6%
chance with three players left to act.
- “Great Hand,” AA-99, AK, AQ, KQ: 87.8% chance with two players left to act, and
82.3% chance with three players left to act.
- “Very Good Hand,” all Great Hands plus 88, AJ: 84.6% chance with two players left to
act, and 77.9% chance with three players left to act.
- “Good Hand,” any pair, any two broadway: 67.4% chance with two players left to act,
and 55.3% chance with three players left to act.
- “Above Average Hand,” any ace, any suited, any pair, any two broadway: 29.5%
chance with two players left to act, and 16% chance with three players left to act.

Note what this means: the “looser” your remaining opponents, the harder it will be to
successfully steal the blinds preflop. If your blind steals are a standard 4xBB, then you

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will wager 4xBB to win 1.5xBB, so if you immediately win 3 times out of 11 you will show
an immediate preflop profit, even if you never win a hand when you don’t win preflop.
Since 3 out of 11 is 27.3%, if our opponents are likely to fold 72.7% of the time, we win
immediately. So against players who will only play “very good hands” versus a steal
attempt, you should be stealing with literally any two cards from either BB or CO, and
doing so will show an instant profit even before the flop. Of course, the hand range your
opponent will consider worthy of a preflop call will expand as you attempt steals more
frequently, so you need to remain aware of both your table image and your opponent’s
play style.

2. Aggression, aggression, aggression. When you get called preflop, this is not a
tragedy – it’s an opportunity. Most opponents crumble quickly against steady aggression;
to successfully steal blinds, we need to apply that steady aggression. However, we need
to do so CAREFULLY so as to make sure that our attempts are profitable. The flop is
going to improve our hand about one time in three. Let’s assume that when we’re called,
we’re typically behind. This will be the case when we are relentless with our steal
attempts and our opponents are conservative with their calls. While this sounds like a
recipe for bankruptcy, it’s actually not bad at all. Consider that even if our opponent is
playing as incredibly tight, some of his hand range will include unpaired preflop hands
like AK. So, what are the odds that by the flop our opponent’s hand is at least strong
enough to beat unimproved pocket deuces?

- If our opponent is only playing “Super Premium Hands,” his hand on the flop will beat
unimproved pocket deuces 73% of the time.
- If our opponent is playing “Premium Hands,” his hand on the flop will beat unimproved
pocket deuces 64% of the time.
- If our opponent is playing “Great Hands,” his hand on the flop will beat unimproved
pocket deuces 59.4% of the time.
- If our opponent is playing “Very Good Hands,” his hand on the flop will beat
unimproved pocket deuces 56.7% of the time.
- If our opponent is playing “Good Hands,” his hand on the flop will beat unimproved
pocket deuces 49% of the time.
- If our opponent is playing “Above Average Hands,” his hand on the flop will beat
unimproved pocket deuces 40.1% of the time.

Now we get into the art of blind stealing: how large should our flop bet be? We want to
make sure our flop bet is at the same size whether we’ve flopped well or not, but we’re
balancing competing issues: how often our opponent will improve, how often we will have
a strong hand, how often our opponent will improve and still fold, how often our
opponent will improve and we’ll improve more, how often we’ll improve but our opponent
will improve more, etc. As complicated as this all sounds, we’ve got a few things going
for us: namely, that we have played the hand aggressively so far and that we will have
position on this and every remaining street in the hand.

For people who steal infrequently (say, 20% of the time or less), your flop bets should be
sizeable. Given that you are only attempting a steal 20% of the time, you will be stealing
with reasonably solid hands yourself: collectively, all suited aces, any pair, and any two
broadway cards make up 20.4% of possible holdings, meaning that your hand on the flop
will beat unimproved pocket deuces 47.6% of the time. The odds that your hand is worth
pursuing is therefore significant enough to warrant a full pot-sized continuation bet from
you; if your opponent folds, great, and if not, you have a valuable hand often enough to
make this a highly profitable hand for you.

However, I don’t recommend stealing “only” 20% of the time. I recommend stealing
much more often than that. As an example, my steal rate of 38.3% corresponds roughly
to stealing with “any pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway cards, and any suited
connector down to 87s.” If that’s your steal range, the chances that on the flop you have

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at least a pair will be noticeably lower (something like 42.8%). The answer is not to bet
less often on the flop; rather, the answer is to bet a smaller quantity on the flop. While a
pot-sized bet needs to win 50% of the time to be immediately profitable, a 2/3-pot sized
bet only needs to win 40% of the time to be immediately profitable.

Notice what this means: if your opponent plays very tightly against your preflop raise,
the odds that he has a decent hand on the flop go up, lowering the value of your flop
bets. However, the odds that he CALLS your preflop bet go DOWN, raising the value of
your PREFLOP bets. At this stage of the hand, we’ve already had two chances to win the
pot: one if our opponent folds to the preflop bet and one if our opponent folds to the flop
bet.

Consider the value of a steal attempt from the big blind against the various opponents,
assuming they will (a) fold preflop if their hand is outside of the specified range (winning
0.75 PTBBs), and (b) only call the flop with a hand that can beat 22 (when they fold, we
win 2.75 PTBBs, and when they fold, we lose 5.5 PTBBs). This assumes our betting is 2
PTBB preflop and 3.5 PTBB on the flop. If we consider only the tightest and loosest
opponents, we see this:

- Super Premium Hands: 94.1% of the time they fold preflop, 27% of the time they fold
on the flop.

EV = 0.941*(+0.75) + (0.059*0.27)*(+2.75) + (0.059*0.73)*(-5.5) = +0.51 PTBB.

- Premium Hands: 90.8% of the time they fold preflop, 36% of the time they fold on the
flop.

EV = 0.908*(+0.75) + (0.092*0.36)*(+2.75) + (0.092*0.64)*(-5.5) = +0.45 PTBB.

Skipping ahead to the loosest players:

- Good Hands: 67.4% of the time they fold preflop, 51% of the time they fold on the
flop.

EV = 0.674*(+0.75) + (0.326*0.51)*(+2.75) + (0.326*0.49)*(-5.5) = +0.08 PTBB.

- Above Average Hands: 29.5% of the time they fold preflop, 59.9% of the time they fold
on the flop.

EV = 0.295*(+0.75) + (0.705*0.599)*(+2.75) + (0.705*0.401)*(-5.5) = -0.17 PTBB.

Once again, this demonstrates a bizarre truism: the less likely your opponent is to fold,
the less profitable your blind-stealing will prove to be in terms of folding equity. Note well
two points, however: first, this assumes that our opponent is calling EVERY time he has a
hand that is at least as strong as a pair of deuces; thus, the opponent holding 22 on a
board of AKQ is assumed to call our continuation bet. Also, our EV calculations have thus
far assumed that whenever we have not won with the flop bet, we lose every time. This
should prove FAR from true, especially against the loosest of our opponents. A safe bet is
that we will win at LEAST 1/3 of the time when our flop bet is called, and that safely
makes all of these calculations +EV.

After the flop, easy and simple rules must be thrown out the window. From here on in,
there is too much “art” in the play to be easily categorized in a summary like this. I do
want to point out a few simple points that might make help you in your blind-stealing
adventures:

1. Much like bears in the woods, your opponents are more afraid of you than you are of

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them. This is your hand – you’ve raised preflop and bet the flop. You’re SCARY, here.
Given that your opponent has exhibited NO aggression at this point, your folding equity
remains solid. Use that ruthlessly. If a scare card hits on the turn and your opponent
checks to you again, fire that second (third?) barrel! Don’t be afraid to bet the turn ace,
the turn king, the turn pair, the turn flush card, the turn straight card, or the turn blank
if you think your opponent is running scared. This is another place where knowing your
enemy helps.

2. If your opponent gets aggressive, TRUST him. There is no shame in folding your blind
steal attempt. If the flop comes A83r and your opponent bets the pot, or check-raises
big, feel free to fold your KQo. In fact, feel OBLIGATED to do so. Blind stealing is
decidedly a “small pot game” strategy; if you are risking your stack on a blind steal,
you’ve screwed up big-time. Similarly, if you are stealing with total garbage (86s or some
such) and someone reraises, GET OUT. Fold immediately, and without hesitation. Don’t
bother seeing what the flop brings – there’s no profit in it.

3. Take free cards if they are beneficial to you. One strength of this strategy is that you’ll
often have good draws on the flop, and your opponent will usually offer you a free card
on the turn. If you’ve got a good draw, feel free to take it. Don’t ALWAYS take it, though
– I’ve often fired another barrel with a hand like Tc9c when the board looked like
QcJd4s4c. Not only did that turn card 4c improve my hand by giving me nine more outs,
but it also scared the doody out of my opponent, making him think that I just turned
trips. Why not take advantage of the fear? Instead of playing for my 2-to-1 draw, I can
bet immediately and win the pot a significant chunk of the time, and STILL win 1/3 of the
time at showdown (usually for even more money, since my opponent won’t see my
straight or flush coming).

4. Don’t get discouraged if your steals fail. We’re often worried that because our
opponent played back at us the last time we tried to steal, we need to tighten up
considerably. Don’t. Our opponents don’t adjust NEARLY as much as we think they do.
Just because you got reraised preflop the last time you tried to steal doesn’t mean that
they’ve got your number; more likely, SB had AA when he fought back. Now he’s got
92o, and he does NOT have a pair of balls. Hit him again, and keep hitting him.

5. Know your image! While players don’t adjust very well or very far or very effectively,
they DO adjust. If you’ve picked up the pot with preflop bets and flop bets the last four
hands in a row, fold your 98s in the CO this time. You are not a slave to your cards;
understand your table image, understand that your opponents are getting pissed off at
you, and understand that your folding equity falls every additional time you win a pot
without showing your cards. After you’ve folded preflop three or four times in a row, you
can go back to stealing and bullying, but give your opponents a tiny chance to catch their
breaths between steals.

6. DO NOT SLOWPLAY. I cannot emphasize this enough. Your entire strategy here is a
bluff that depends entirely on your playing your monsters and your junk identically.
There’s always the temptation when you have AA preflop and catch A55 on the flop to
suddenly change gears. Don’t! With any luck, your opponent won’t believe you, and will
call all-in with QQ unimproved. Not only will you stack him, but you’ll also get even more
respect the next time you play fast on a board of A55…only this time you’ll have
98s….Fast play of big hands is CRUCIAL to the success of this strategy. Not only does it
boost the shania of all your weak junk by elevating your folding equity, but it also gets
paid off much more frequently than it would if you were only nut-peddling.

To those of you who read this entire thread, I thank the both of you, and I hope this
gave you some additional insight into the ins and outs of blind stealing. Give it a shot –
you may find it more lucrative than you ever imagined it could be.

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Geez, I've made some lengthy posts in the past, but this one was longer than Ghandi.
Sorry about that.

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Taking stealing the blinds to next level (Dan Bitel)

Secondly, what I'm about to write is not for every1. Unlike blind stealing, you don't HAVE
to do this to play optimal poker. I know that a lot of good players/respected posters do
this already and some don't like it at all.

OK, what you have to realise is quite how +EV blind stealing is. Check you BB/100 when
blind stealing in PT. I'm sure that for most of you it's bigger than 60 PTBB/100, now that
a hell of a lot of $$$$!!!! The reason for this is in a way, NLTH is a badly structured game
in the way that when you play without antes, the blinds are at such a disadvantage, they
have to post their blind without even seeing their hand. Now considering that a good TAG
player will normally only play about 20% of their hands, this means that on the BB ,
they're losing 4BB every 5 hands, that they normally wouldn't put in.

OK, so lets say you're on the button and MP limps to you. You have K 2 , what
should you normally do? Well folding certainly doesn't look too bad. We've got a poor
hand after all. What do I think you should do? RAISE THAT [censored]!!!

Reasons:

1) now, yourblind steal doen't even look like a blind steal, so it's less likely the blinds will
see it as that and play back at you.

2) It's scary the amount of times that I've seen people limp/fold preflop, even from CO.
It kinda baffles me realy!! What kind of hand can they have?

3) What do you opponents limp with? This is a very important consideration. Normally,
either trash/SC/PP. These hands miss the flop very often. So even if you do get called,
they won't continue after your flop cbet very often.

4) When we take it down preflop, we now win 2.5BB. Thats over

100PTBB/100.....freakdaddy, we'll catch you yet

5) We'll get paid off more on our big hands.

6) Our oppponents are plays sub-optimally by open limping. So by raising, we are

punishing that mistake.

Next, lets think about what will happen after we make this play a few times. Well, either
you're at a table of mega mega unobservant fish and you just keep raking in the money
from their limps. Or maybe you're sitting at a table of just mega unobservant fish, and
they realise what you're doing and they stop limping. Well, is this a good thing or a bad
thing? I think in a way, its a VERY good thing. It means 1) they will be folding more, so
you can steal the blinds more, which as we've already discussed is $$$$$$. 2) They will
be raising more and will be out of their comfort zone. This means they will usually make
even bigger mistakes than usual as they try to adjust

Next, what hands should you be doing this with? After how many limpers? After what
sort of limpers.

IMO, you should do it with your normal blind stealing range, so SC, unsuited connectors,
suited 1 gappers, Axs, Kxs, low PP etc etc.

No. of limpers: normally 1 or 2, but sometimes more if conditions allow

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The type of limpers: the ones that like to fold, eihter preflop or 2 cbets.

Lastly, the problems with this:

1) If you do this too often, you'll find that you open up your game tooo much and start
raising poor hands OOP too and get into trouble.

2) watch out for LRR

3) You'll be put in a lot more marginal situations post-flop, so you need to make sure
your reasing skills are goot.

IMO, playing a huge range of hands from the button after 0 or 1 (and even 2 limpers),
raising them all and then from all other positions just play pairs/big aces/KQ is a
simpleish but very profitable strategy

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TILT and PSYCHOLOGY

The psychology of TILT (DaycareInferno)

I have been giving a lot of thought today to what factors separate highly tilt-prone
players from those players that struggle with tilt less often. I often feel bad, because a
lot of friends of mine are severely inhibited by tilt, and I wish that I could at least help
them start down the right road towards managing this problem. This is my attempt.

First let me say that there are big differences between recognizing a problem,
understanding a problem, and managing a problem. While there have been many
attempts, both by amateurs and seasoned professionals, to help people with this
particular problem, most of these attempts that I have seen are somewhat misguided,
because they lack a certain fundamental understanding of human behaviour.

If you missed an easy layup at the buzzer of a high school state championship basketball
game, and your mother approached you and told you that it was okay, and that it's just
a game, would you jump up and yell "Yay! Let's all go to McDonald's!"? Probably not. If
your old man told you that you should stop smoking cigarettes because they are bad for
you, would you say "Golly. I guess you're right, pops." and never pick up another
cigarette again? Probably not. Things just don't work that way. Logic does not override
peoples' hard-coded responses and urges. Fear can override them. Conflicting responses
and urges can override them, but for the most part, logic isn't much help in the now. In
order to use rational thinking to help manage your problems, you must work hard to
condition yourself while you are thinking rationally. Having a mantra, or a cliche, or a
picture on the ready for when you're thinking irrationally just isn't going to cut it. It will
lose its effect, just like an ill conceived New Year's resolution.

Ok, so how do we go about managing the problem? Well, first we should understand the
problem, and not just look at the end effect. When it comes to poker related behaviours,
this can be very hard to do, because there are so many unique factors in play. If a
person that has problems with tilt control were to go to a psychologist, that psychologist
would probably come to the conclusion that he/she was compulsive, addiction prone,
egomaniacal, and displayed strong tendencies of any combination of various personality
disorders that you can think of. Guess what, though? That same psychologist is going to
draw similar conclusions about a high percentage of poker players that aren't as tilt
prone, also. The fact of the matter is that these tendencies are very common among all
poker players, whether they're tilt monkies or not.

So, what is it then that separates players with regards to tilt? Well, for the most part, its
simply a matter of anger levels and how conditioned an individual is to managing their
anger. If you are very prone to tilt, think about how you would react in the following
situations. If you are not very prone to tilt, think about how someone that you know well,
and is every prone to tilt would react in the following situations:

Your favorite football team throws an interception in the last minute of a close game that
is returned for a game winning score by the opposing team.

You get cut off in traffic.

An old lady in front of you in line at the grocery store insists on sifting through change
for 5 minutes in order to pay an exact amount.

These are the moments that bring to light the levels of anger within a person, and the

154
people that lose it in any of these situations, tend to lose it in all of these situations, and
tend to lose it at the poker table as well. If you're the guy that screams at your television
when your team loses, you're going to have a real uphill battle with poker.

Something else that should be added to that, is that although a marginal ammount of
self control will suffice in those situations, its not going to do you much good when you're
involved in something as intense as a game of poker, as opposed to sitting on your couch
and eating potato chips. Don't think that you're going to be okay, just because you're not
the type to lash out in those sorts of situations. If you're the type that just boils on the
inside, like the guy from "Falling Down", that anger is still there, nonetheless. Your
approach might keep you from getting punched at Aldi's, but it won't help you much in
poker.

What can you do? Well, you shouldn't go off the deep end just yet. You might be reading
this and thinking "Oh my god! That's so me!", and maybe it is, but its everyone to a
certain extent. There is no one that doesn't get mad, in life, or in poker. The easiest way
to assess the severity of your problem, just like with anything else, is by the
consequences of your actions. If your anger is causing you major problems in your life,
then it would greatly benefit you to seek professional help, not just for the sake of your
poker career. If your problem isn't severe, but its something you would like to work on,
there are plenty of free resources available that can provide you with a foundation for
that work. I can tell you right now that it will do you no good if you do not continue to
work, though, just like lifting weights for a day isn't going to make you any stronger
physically.

Try to keep in mind that while the end result of your problem may surface on an
imaginary card table, that does not mean that people that spend a lot of time around
imaginary card tables are the most qualified to help you with that problem. As nice as it
would be to be able to condition your behavior by taping some fortune cookie [censored]
onto the side of your monitor, you'll come to find out that in the long run, these type of
solutions aren't really any more effective than a rabbit's foot.

If you're serious about looking into effective ways of managing your anger, get on
google, start researching, and be prepared to actually spend some time and effort on it,
instead of looking for a quick fix. I'll warn you ahead of time, though. Most online
resources for these types of things really aren't very well geared towards younger age
groups, and so a lot of them will probably come off as fairly cheesy. Its not that hard to
improvise a little bit and put your research into a context that makes more sense for you,
though.

Final Thought: Watch more Kung Fu

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TILT and R.A.A. (Pjo336)

know there have been many posts on tilt and cures etc, but as a once chronic tilter, i
thought i would throw in my thoughts and ideas on what I have learned on the topic.

The fact is simple, you WILL NOT WIN if you continue to let tilt run thru your game.
There are players who know this, and fix it, and then there are players who "know" this
and basically ignore it. Im here to help the latter. I think its fairly safe to say, i am pretty
well versed in tilt. Im not proud of this lol.

The process I developed in terms of tilt is called R.A.A.

R.A.A.
1. Recognition
2. Alleviation
3. Adjustment

Each portion is important, and if followed, your game will develop 10-fold.

1. Recognition
This is perhaps the hardest thing about tilt, the fact that alot of the time, people will not
KNOW they are actively tilting. I sweat people a ton, and alot of times I see people doing
things that i know they know they shouldn't be doing. However they dont realize it.
(hope i didnt lose anyone)

So how can you come to realize it? Well, what is tilt first off? I would define it as a state
of mind a player enters that causes them to deviate from ANY play they would make
normally with sound reasoning, to a play of pure emotion. Lets face it, emotion will kill
you in this game, and as much as the 12 tabling hudbots want to believe, we are all
humans and prone to such emotions.

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Common tilt thoughts:
"This [censored] has min raised my cbet far too many times" Yes, annoying as hell, but
worry more about his stats and reads. This is emotion getting involved and is deviating
you from playing optimally "Come on gimme a hand" Patience child. Nothing makes a
cold hand streak stick out more than tilt. If it seems to be bothering you especially today
YOU MAY JUST BE ON TILT. "I never win flips" [censored] you dont. STFU noob, quit
tilting.

Recognition is the hardest part of this process, because everyone is different. Next time
you have found yourself tilting, stop!, go thru the session and find what caused it,
whether it was a beat, a player, or your gf bitching at you. Write it down and remember
it. Eventually youll have a solid list of "What to avoid" while playing.

2. Alleviation
This step is of course coming down off of tilt. There are 2 different forms of alleviation.
#1- Long term: This of course means one thing. DO NOT CONTINUE PLAYING. STOP.
Nothing is harder than the first time you leave a 60/4 monkey sitting on your right with 5
buy ins, but I promise you, it gets easier. Most of us have the advantage here in the
micros of knowing there will ALWAYS be fish to feed us sharks. When you get rattled,
you play less optimally and become part of the "force it" crowd. You start playing against
the 60/4 with 89 offsuit, flop an oesd and check call half your stack. WHY? Leave the
table until you are settled, whether its 5 hours or 5 days later. The fact is, THE GAME
WILL ALWAYS BE THERE, BUT YOUR "A" GAME WILL NOT.

#2-Short Term: I recommend trying to avoid this, but if you are for for any reason in a
spot where you need to continue (i.e. a tournament), there are a few quick things you
can do to calm yourself. Pretty simple: Have a smoke if you smoke, get a soda, wash
your face with warm water or draw a warm bath and play in it, put on a soothing song.
Even talk to someone, about poker or not, on the phone or aim. Hell im on this site way
too much, pm me, ill help you out! Personally I light up a scented candle and reflect on
finding my center. You would be surprised how much taking 10 seconds to breath and
focus on something else would really help, but people fall into a trap of getting MORE into
the game when they are urked. Dont do this.

3.Adjustment
Finding what caused your tilt can help, but its more or less finding what you can do to
avoid ANYTHING that will hurt you.

Shorter sessions !!! I used to sit and play till i reached 1500 hands. By 1100 i was
usually going batshit insane. Shorten it up. Play 500, take a five minute break, then play
another 500. It adds 5 minutes to your time, but also adds to your ptbb/100.

Less tables. Not all of us can handle 2 hour sessions at 12 tables. Hell I cant handle 8
without tilting. Lessen it up, even by 1 and im sure youd be surprised at the somewhat
calmer pace calming you.

Sufficient Br. This ones pretty obvious as well. Dropping 2 bis then noticing you still have
32 bis left is much easier to handle then realizing you were never really rolled for this
level in the first place.

Excercise. This is more important than you will know. Its science. Endorphins and what
not people. Take a walk, pump some iron, hell [censored] someone ferociously. Do
SOMETHING to get your blood flowing a few times a week. This will not only improve the
quality of you emotional state, but even health state, and lets not forget, life isnt all
about poker.

Take a break. An hour. A month. A year, w/e. I tilted off a very sizeable roll in about a

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week of nonstop tilting. I took a 4 month hiatus from poker, and I have come back
stronger than ever. Guess what guys, the secret to success is passion and patience. If
you lose either, you are screwed. Stop playing for a day and pick up a book, whether
poker related or not. (I recommend Take Me to the River by Peter Alson as a non-strat
poker book). Don't force anything! If your not in the mood to play today, there's
always tomorrow.

Everything about tilt and its elements are pretty individual, so in reality, its up to you to
find how it all pertains to your play and your emotions. Try filling in on a piece of paper
one day how you recognize your tilt, how you alleviate it, and how you can adjust to
avoid needing alleviation. It WILL help your game 100%. I PROMISE! And remember,
dealing with tilt is just like sex. You can watch 100 people do it, but this does not make
YOU a professional.

Well I hope this rambling helped someone out so I can say only 99.9% of my posts are
worthless. Id love to hear thoughts on the topic. ill start, tl:dr

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My Take On Tilt (beavens)

Tilt. If you've played poker for any amount of time you've experienced it.

You flop top set with KK on a board of K58 rainbow. You lead, get raised by an obvious
table-monkey, and cheer. You happily 3bet all-in and raise your fist triumphantly in the
air as your push gets called. You already picture yourself stacking those chips (or virtual
chips) in a huge pyramid.

Turn card: 7

Ha, couldn't have helped the monkey.

River card: 6

SHIP IT!

But wait - why are all the checks being pushed to the monkey???

The table-monkey flips over his K9 for the runner-runner straight.

It is like the 4th of July in your head, and your poor mouse doesn't even know what it's
in for. You scream. You yell. "XXXX you, you XXXXing donkey XXXXX" is typed out into
the chat box with such anger that the desk shakes with every keystroke.

Steaming. Fuming. Pissed off at how this moron could go all-in with TPBK and a backdoor
straight draw.

You rebuy.

Revenge is the only thing on your mind right. You want back the money you rightfully
earned and Senior Donk took from you with his insane luck.

Your mouse winces each time you click Fold Fold Fold. You get restless and frustrated by
not receiving one playable hand. And then it comes - you get AJs in the cutoff.

RAISE!

Fold, fold. Gets to our friend, Table-Monkey - reraise.

WTF? No way. Not this time, pal. You push - still steaming.

Instacall.

You don't even remember the flop, turn or river. All you see is the AA flipped over and
another 100BBs being shipped over to Senior Donk; who now has taken you for 200BBs.

What happened??? One event sparked a total change in momentum of your entire
session.

You tilted.

I wanted to make this (obscenely long) post about the two different kinds of tilt: Loser's
Tilt and Winner's Tilt, and also briefly talk about ways to cope with and prevent tilting in
general.

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First, is the most obvious one we've all dealt with - Loser's Tilt.

This happens when an event takes place like listed above. You are an overwhelming
favorite in a hand, and the villain catches a miracle card(s). Common reactions,
obviously, are anger and disgust - both of which pave the path of you misplaying a future
hand. You feel a need to win that money back as soon as possible, and in doing so, you
set yourself up for more future losses. We do this by: opening up your preflop standards
too much, raising/calling raises with marginal hands, not keeping position/stats/reads in
mind during a hand, and becoming way too aggressive.

I think we've all been in those situations are know them pretty well.

The second form of tilt (that I didn't even THINK of until it was brought to my attention)
is Winner's Tilt. You may think, "How can you tilt when you're winning??". Picture this -
You are on a heater and playing well. You're getting hands and they are hitting hard.
Next thing you know you're up 150BBs and life is g00t. You laugh at the meager plebs
and look down on them from your mountain of chips. Then winner's tilt comes into play -
but the scary thing about winner's tilt is that you don't even realize it! You find yourself
playing marginal hands and pushing even the thinnest of edges because in your mind
you're thinking, "Hey, I'm up big - I can afford to make this call. I'm running hot
anyways, right?". So if you don't hit (don't worry, you were behind the whole time
anyways), your stack starts to dwindle. But it doesn't faze you! You're still having a
winning session, right? All is good, right???

No, by making these poor decisions and losing these "small" pots you’re basically burning
money. Getting a deep stack should allow you some opening up of your game, but not to
somehow rationalize making -EV decisions.

Now that we've looked at the two different forms of tilt, let's look at way to cope/deal
with tilt and ways to prevent tilting in the first place.

There are infinite ways to cope or deal with tilt. I believe it depends on the person as to
what calms them down the best. In almost all cases, it involves doing something OTHER
than playing poker. For a lot of people, taking a break from poker altogether for a little
while is the only way. Watch some TV, play some video games, read a book, go outside,
hang with friends, etc - just get your mind off the game. For others, reviewing their plays
for the session, posting/reading on 2p2, or reading their poker books help.

The main goal in dealing with tilt is realizing that in the long run, the bad beats won't
matter and that you'll come out on top more times than not. It's a numbers game! You
get your money in as the favorite and overall you WILL make money. As SSNL players,
we thrive on these people sucking out on us. Otherwise we'd be sitting at tables full of
4_2's, AJs, dbtiels, quarks, etc. - which I personally would hate.

Everyone goes through the swings, as it is the nature of the beast. The sooner you can
learn to roll with the punches, the better off your game will be. Your goal should be to be
able to shrug off bad beats because you know that the short run is just the battle, not
the war.

This brings me to preventing tilt from happening in the first place. This part is more
psychological, so I would love if some of the Psych regs could come in and shed some
light on how to get in the proper mindset for poker. My practical suggestion for
preventing tilt is being properly bankrolled. If you provide yourself a nice cushion to
soften out the variance, then hopefully you will not flip out when you drop few buy-ins to
bad beats. I've personally found that when I've got a nice BR for the level I'm playing on,

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my tilting has dropped dramatically.

Well, I hope this wasn't TOO long and it provided something helpful.

If you don't get anything from this thread, I hope that no one follows my lead and blows
their entire BR in one night by tilting your face off and jumping into a game that you are
severely underrolled for.

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Variance, Tilt, Ego, and SSNL (lmw)

As a famous STT poster once said, “ there will come a time when you will run worse than
you ever thought possible.” I find myself in the middle of such a time now. I am not
posting this to bore the forum with tales of one outers or runner runner disasters, but to
hopefully allow some of the newer players a chance to learn from my downswing, so that
they may be able to cope with there own inevitable downswing better.

Variance, Tilt, and Ego all play huge roles in the length and destructiveness of our
downswings. As there are only two of these three factors we can control, I don’t intend to
spend much time on variance. There has been several posts written on the subject by far
superior players than myself. The bottom line is the 4-1 shots, the 10-1 shots, and the
45-1 shots, all have to hit sometime. Sometimes they all hit in a short amount of time.
There is nothing you can do about it. Learn to be happy when you get your money in
with way the best of it and lose. You successfully manipulated your opponent into making
a huge mistake and that is all you can hope for.

The other two factors, tilt and ego, are very closely related IMO. As 2+2ers, we make up
a small percentage of the SSNL player pool who considers themselves serious students of
the game of poker. We work at getting better with every post we make. We study hands,
share ideas, and learn from others mistakes and we are better poker players for it. The
problem is we know it.

I believe that most of us feel like we are one of the better players at the table when we
sit down. We see our opponent’s mistakes and do our best to manipulate them. When we
win we pat ourselves on the back and feel good about the time we have put into
improving our game. When we lose it’s usually because someone got lucky. Knowing we
have an edge against our opponents makes losing to them all the more painful. It also
can lead to us playing longer than we should when we are losing. We know we are
better, so we ignore the warning signs of tilt in the hopes of stacking a bad opponent. We
get impatient and try and force the issue when what we really need to be doing is waiting
for the right spot.

Not matter how big our edge is, we will never be able to win everyday. If any of you
listen to The Circuit, You may have heard the interview with Chip Reese this week. . In
this interview Chip mentioned that he felt like playing to long when they are losing was
one of the biggest mistakes he sees his opponents make. He also said that it was one of
the hardest things for him to over come early in his career.

Before we can become truly great players we must learn to be able to quit behind and
play longer when we are winning. Everyone plays better when they are winning and
everyone plays worse when they are losing. If we normally play 2 hours a day but
sometimes play 6 hours, we would be much better off playing for 6 hours when we are
playing well and controlling the table than when we are stuck and trying to get even.

IMO ego is the main reason players get stuck. It is important that we separate our self
worth from the results of our poker sessions. We all need something outside of poker
that we can be proud of and enjoy. We should all strive to be good friends, parents,
students, or whatever. If you are a causal player keep other aspects of your life at a
higher priority than poker. If you are a professional player, find other hobbies that you
enjoy. Find something stable that brings you happiness. If you let poker determine you
happiness, you are setting yourself up for one hell of a emotional rollercoaster ride. The
less of your self worth you derive from poker the better player you will be.

I don’t really have any more to say on the subject now. I hope if you’ve read this far,

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that you have found some food for thought in this post. I got a lot out of writing it. I can
only hope you got something out of reading it. I’m going to take a break from poker for a
couple of days, read a book, take my girlfriend out, and help an old lady cross the street.
Hopefully when I return the pendulum will swing the other way, but if not, hopefully I’ll
be able to take it in stride. I have to if I ever want to be a true professional.

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EVERYTHING ABOUT CONTINUATION BET
Continuation betting – PART I (MYNAMEIZGREG)

In this article, I will attempt to discuss the intricacies of continuation betting. For
organization purposes, I will split continuation betting into categories of: heads up on the
flop, 3way, and 4+ players. So, let’s hit it up.

Heads up. I like to call it, “Find a flop for me not to continuation bet.” As a default, if
you have a shot of winning the hand, or getting a piece, bet out. Yes, that means betting
out AA on an A63 rainbow, and yes that means betting KJc on an AhTh3s board. You do,
after all, have 3 outs to the nuts. You hold 65s on a 8c9c2s? Monster backdoor draws.
Bet out. Of course, you can bet your draws as well, and bet your made hands as well.
The only thing I will say about a specific situation in this paragraph is a quick synopsis of
a monotone flop. Flop comes 9JKs, and you have 65h. Ok, you can give up. Just be sure
to balance by betting out here, and sometimes firing out two barrels if you think you’ll be
called by something like a ten, or Qs9x, etc. Now, these quick examples are merely
defaults; you’ve just sat at a table vs a table of unknowns. But alas, poker is rarely an
unknown in an unknown situation, so I guess we need a strategy for those situations
too….

There are a few stats I care about. Honestly, as I moved up through the ranks, stats
become less important, and dynamics becomes weighted more. However, there are a few
numbers considered when continuation betting. Those numbers are: call continuation bet
%, raise continuation bet %, and fold continuation bet %. I will discuss the types of
players that fall into various categories based on their stats. *NOTE* Do not depend on
these stats as the be all end all. Poker players may play in different moods on different
days, or hate you because you just rocked them on some other table, or want to have a
dick measuring contest with you because their girlfriend just broke up with them because
they lost that contest with her. But, over a bunch of hands, you will have reliable stats.
Once you observe your opponent and he seems to be in synch with his normal game
play, they work well. Of course, if he is playing differently today, disregard the stats and
go with how he is playing today.

Heads up vs the weak-tight-OMFG-he-must-have-flopped-the-nuts-to-bet-at-

that-flop. This is the guy who folds to continuation bets 70-80%+ of the time. Fire
away. If he starts to call you thin (b/c you check through the turn and river and he
shows down MP on the flop), start firing the turn and river more often. Without getting
more into further streets, this is a good guy to represent scare cards on the turn with.
When he raises or calls, proceed with caution. Until you know he has adjusted his game
by calling thin/semibluff or bluff raising the flop, try to get to showdown and figure out
what the hell this guy is doing.

The normal player. This is your average tag, or average player who generally calls or
raises with a hand, but will sometimes call you down thin, or sometimes bluff raise you.
For this player, I resort to the bet if I can win strategy outlined in the opening paragraph.
If I have some gutshot, or backdoor draw, bet it. Note that this player has NOT started
playing back at you.

The annoying ass “LOL I have two cards I call” player. This is the guys who calls
around 50% of the time or greater. Sometimes, you’re going to have to concede some
pots to him on the flop by check/folding. Of course, this will set you up for a check/raise
on the flop with a real hand or bluff, so eventually he doesn’t always bet this flop when
checked to, or fire the turn 100% if he is OOP. Now, let’s assume you are OOP and get
called. You will have to start firing out at a few turns here. Essentially, this guy is going

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to win some money from you at the beginning, until you figure out what exactly he is
doing. But, once you make that note that he called your two street bluff with 63 on a
68JK board, the game is essentially over. The strategy against these people depends on
what subset they are.
The a) station is easily dealt with by value betting him to death. That means three
streets with TPTK or TPGK, or a set, two pair, when your draws hits. He is the calling
station, so you are losing a LOT of value by check/calling to see if he bets his busted
draw when you are sitting there with aces on a Q high board. Remember, HE’LL talk
himself into a call, and you can represent having a busted draw there too. Don’t check to
these guys if you have a hand.
The more difficult version of these players is the b) floaty type. This is the lag who
wants to outplay you. This is the 2p2er who wants to stroke his ego. This is the idiot who
has a 33% calling/folding/raising ratio when faced with a continuation bet. However, note
that the normal player who just lots a few big pots, or seems generally tilty will also fit
into this category. The normal player will also fit into this category after you’ve pounded
him with continuation bets the last 30 minutes. The tool for combating these guys is to
let them outplay you. Betting the flop and check/raising the turn is a sick move against
these guys, whether you have air or a monster (I for one am not really a fan of showing
bluffs, but if you decide it is +EV to do so, go for it). Also, these are the guys that might
take one off with 88 on a 29Q board, or with a hand like 9T. Start to double barrel these
guys. Basically, if they want to outplay you, they are going to have to call down with
middle pair for their stack, because we’re gonna be firing at them all day long.
Remember, however, that your aggression is going to cause them to make mistakes,
while you will turn their aggression into a mistake. You tricky [censored].

Marginal hands are tricky to play. This would be QT on a TK3r flop, or KTs on a AK8
flop. You might be ahead but you might not be. OOP, you still should be betting these
hands much of the time because check/calling doesn’t really get you a lot of information,
and is generally a weak play. However, while in position, you have the option of checking
behind. You are somewhat forced to call the turn if your opponents fires, and evaluate
the river depending on the specific situation. Note that checking behind with marginal
hands will be balanced by the times you check behind with air, a strong hand, or a
monster (slowplaying). I will not get into the specifics of when to bet monsters or not,
because it is pretty specific to the opponent, your image, and the table dynamics (ie 15
pages). However, I guess feel free to ask questions and I will do my best to answer.

The last thing to take into consideration is your image. The board is really drawy, and
your image is of betting into every single flop. It might be a good time to check/fold, as
that flop hit a lot of hands and your image isn’t that great. Additionally, if you just
showed down a bluff or something happened when it looked like you were full of
[censored], considering not betting the next flop. Of course, this is a great time to pound
the flop if you hit, because your opponent will give you less credit.

The big thing not to forget is the importance of mixing up your play. Check/raise with
good and bad hands. Check/call and lead the turn. Continuation bet monsters and air,
and marginal hands, but also check behind on the flop with them. When players see you
are capable to have a wide range of hands even doing any action (betting, or checking,
calling or raising), they are less likely to play back at you, and there actions will define
their hands more easily, allowing you to play closer to perfectly.

So, that in a nutshell is continuation betting heads up. Next time we will talk about
multiway pots, and how your hand and position affects what you do.

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C-BETTING (The Machine)

One thing when I first started playing poker that I noticed I did not have a good grasp on
was betting, particularly continuation betting. Most of this post may be trivial to most but
it may be helpful to some, or even just a good reminder to most

Why continuation bet???

Well that answer is easy. In a heads up pot any random hand will miss the flop 2/3 of the
time. So if we continuation bet at all of the pots we raise we should win at least 2/3 of
them just because the other person hasnt made a hand, let alone made a hand strong
enough to call us down with.

How much should my continuation bet be???

That question depends on a few different factors. I will try to go through a few different
examples to describe my meaning.

Well its standard to PFR 4xBB + 1 for each limper. For the time being I would like to
keep our post flop to heads up play.

In the CO we hold AKo, so we came in for our 4xBB + 1 for one limper and we were
called by the BB only. Lets assume our villain in this example plays a semi TAG game at
18/6/1.5. The flop comes 9 4 2 . It is very unlikely that this flop has helped our
vilain unless he has 99, 44, or 22. his 18% range is much wider then these 3 hands and
we are ahead of almost all of them. We would always come out for a C-Bet in this spot
when checked to.

#1 reason is to protect what is most likely the best hand at this point. If any further
action is pursued then we can readjust our read and make the appropriate play.

#2 reason is more of a semi bluff in which we are representing a hand which is stronger
then ours really is. (this example will come into play more in a later example)

Well I just read all this crap about why I should bet and this part was supposed to be
about how much I should bet. Well I felt that getting that part out of the way was very
relevant to how much we should bet. On a flop like this it is very drawless against this
villain. it is unlikely that he holds 53 for an openender and there are no flush draws out.
Our bet sizing does not need to be full pot here. This way we save money when we
actually are behind. We only need to bet an amount that we feel is enough to "get the
job done". In our AK example our job is to get villain to fold. If we feel that 1/2-3/4 PSB
is the right amount then that is the amount we should bet; no more, no less.

Now lets take the same villain and change our flop around. We still hold AKo in the CO
and he is still in the BB. If we say the flop is 10 9 4 now we have a different
situation to face. This board has become draw heavy as there are POSSIBLE flush draws
and straight draws on board. Now our villains 18% has become much larger in possible
holdings that can outdraw us. We likely are still ahead of his holdings so here we are
betting for protection and value. If our villain is drawing to a flush or straight we want
him to pay the most he possibly will while doing it unprofitably. If he is willing to call a
PSB on the flop with an OESD then we need to make a PSB. (For simplicity's sake im
negating the fact that villains possible QJ are also live outs against our AK here). By
making a PSB villain loses the most when he does not outdraw us and he was willing to
put more money in post flop because how the flop had helped him.

All continuation bets should be no less then 1/2 PSB to no more then full pot.

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Well I followed your advice but every continuation bet I make gets check raised
or called and we check down

This is ok. A continuation bet is a small bluff and from time to time they will get picked
off. This is actually the beauty in a continuation bet (to be discussed later). Sometiems
your villain will hit a flop and check raise you. It is then your decision to step back and
play poker with AK on the 942r board. Go with your feel.

Is there a time when I shouldn't be C-Betting

YES. We do not want to be C-betting in a few different spots.

#1 We do not want to be C-betting OOP in multiway pots. We still have a villain left to
act behind us and we have no idea where they stand with this flop because they have no
acted yet.

#2 We hold a hand such as AA and the flop is KQJ. if we have our previous semi TAG
villain it is very likely that this flop has helped him in a big way and we need to get our
hand to show down as cheaply as possible so we would not want to continuation bet
here.

#3 A good quote from jjb108 "This is an important point to remember…the average donk
plays Axo. Why semibluff the donks with an OESD or FD with when you know they’ll call
with their TP and better kicker? IMO an A on the flop means that FE can quickly approach
0. The semi-bluff in this situation can be –EV IMO." This quote in our context I'm not only
applying to a semi bluffing hand such as a FD or OESD. If we have notes on a villain that
says plays any ace from any position in raised or unraised pots then our KQ which we
raised from MP should be wary when this villain calls and an ace flops. Opponent
dependent and note dependent I will sometimes not C-bet against this villain.

I play a semi LAG stayle and love raising SC's so what to do on the flop when I
miss?

A continuation bet is also a stone cold bluff as much as it can be a semi bluff or a bet for
value against a worse hand. We represented that we had a big hand preflop when we
raised so most of the time (again opponent dependent) if I am raising SC's preflop I will
be betting them on the flop.

C-betting becomes espically important with SC's when we flop our draws. Say we raise
67 4xBB from the button and are called by BB. If villain holds a weak Ace and we flop a
flush draw and lead for a 1/2-3/4 PSB on a A 10 2 and are called(say we are
playing 25NL) The pot was 2$ on the flop and now between 4-5$ on the turn. Villain will
most likely check his weak ace to us for fear of being outkicked/FPS with top pair. We
have now bought ourselves a free card on the turn should we need it to complete a draw
we may have flopped.

Well it seems my C-bets keep getting called and i havent been improving.
Should I stop C-betting for a few hands?

The answer here may be yes for some reasons such as an incorrect perception of a
player. When up against a calling station we do not need to C-bet bluff because he will be
calling us down. Against this opponent we need to C-bet when we actually make a hand
and have him pay us off with many worse hands.

Aside from this aspect my main reason to keep C-betting (which I fail to do sometimes

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when Im running bad) is to set up for later hands. Villain 3 times in a row picked off my
AKo C-bet on a Q72r flop. By this time he has me pegged as a bluffer. When we come in
for a raise with a PP and flop a set and lead out when checked to it is very likely that said
villain will be paying us off from the perception we have given him about us.

This here is a double edged sword also. We need to keep C-betting to set our self up for
later hands. The same is true when we actually flop a big hand.

Reason 1: When we were betting before with AK high it may become very suspicious to
some villains if we decide to check behind on a flop where we were checked to when we
flop a monster hand. We need to keep portraying the image we have set up with them
and bet into the pot. The pot gets big and hopefully said villain who thinks we are donkey
of the year pays us off with a nice big 100BB's

Reason 2: If we are unknown to villain and we C-bet with a flopped set or TPTK and get
to showdown, the whole table sees that we are leading out with powerful hands and not
trying to slowplay them. THIS IS THE BEST PART!! This way in the future our C-bets
when we have nothing but air will be getting much more respect because of the hands
that we have been leading out with!

There are so many different reasons for C-betting given certain hands. Against the same
Semi TAG villain from the previous examples; with AA on a 942r board we are betting for
value since its alomst certain we have the best hand. With AK on the same board we are
betting for protection since our hand is most likely the best but could easily be outdrawn.

We need to look at our villain, as well as flop texture and size up the appropriate bet.
When done correctly you can C-bet your way from one level to the next.

There are obviously circumstances where it would be wrong to C-bet that I have not
mentioned here but anyone who would like to add some or add some other ideas about
C-betting that I did not touch upon please feel free, and I hope you all do!!!

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CONTINUATION BET ARTICLE (FreakDaddy)

Continuation bets are exactly what the name implies. They are a continuation of pre-flop
aggression, designed to win the pot if the pre-flop raiser missed the flop, or continue to
build a pot when ahead. When continuation bets are used successfully, they are an
important money making weapon of the solid poker player. When continuation bets are
used incorrectly, typically by beginners who over use the concept, they can become a
marginal, or even money losing play. This article is going to look at how to maximize
your continuation bets by examining pre-flop situations, flop textures, betting sizes, and
opponent player types, in order to make your continuation bets as successful as possible.
The primary goal of solid continuation bet play should be to win your missed flops with
continuation bets 50% of the time or more. The proper use of pre-flop raises, betting
sizes, and balance, are important components in achieving better than break even
numbers with your continuation bets. You can however, win only 35% of your
continuation bets and still be profitable with them, as long as you make your continuation
bet sizes small enough to provide for a higher failure rate. For example, here are the 3
common continuation bet sizes:

(½ the pot) If the Pot is 12BB and you make a continuation bet of only 6BB then you
need to be successful only 34% of the time.
(¾ of the pot)If the pot is 12BB and you make a continuation bet of 8BB, then you need
to be successful 41% of the time.
(Full pot size)If the pot is 12BB and you make a continuation bet of 12BB, then you need
to be successful 51% of the time.

When determining the appropriate continuation bet size when you miss, you want to
choose the minimum size you think will win you the pot with the least amount of risk. In
a perfect world you could bet ¼ of the pot when you miss, and win the pot over 50% of
the time. Then you could bet the full pot size when you connect with the flop and get
called over 50% of the time. Unfortunately most opponents that are paying attention at
all will soon catch on to your varying bet size. So the best way to combat this is to use
two very similar bet sizes for your continuation bluff bets, and vary between them
depending upon the flop texture and the types of opponents you face. This will create a
randomizing effect that will be very difficult for your opponents to pick up, and at the
same time maximize your profits.

At small stakes No-limit Holdem the most optimal play is to vary your continuation bet
sizes between ¾ of the pot and the full size of the pot. If you do this effectively enough,
you can vary your bet sizes to provide you with slightly better odds when you do miss,
and build an effective pot when you do connect. For example, when you miss the flop, if
you don’t bet at all ~20% of the time, bet the full size of the pot ~50% of the time, and
¾ of the pot the remaining ~30% of the time, you are keeping your opponents guessing,
while remaining intimidating at the same time. Also, if you bet the full size of the pot
~85% of the time when you connect, and ¾ of the pot the remaining ~15% of the time,
you are again keeping your opponents guessing, while tilting the odds in your favor. You
will however have to adjust these percentages depending upon your own style of play
(See “The type of player you are” at the end of the article).
So let’s take a rough example of this and say that your opponent calls half of the time,
and folds the other half of the time, which is a fairly rough and approximate
representation of small stakes No-limit Holdem. Let’s also say that the pot size is 12BB
and we simulate this 100 times. Let’s also assume that you NEVER improve after
continuation betting. The net result will look as follows simluate 100x:

20% of the time don't bet/30% of the time bet 3/4 pot/50% bet the full pot
Your opponent calls -N/A- /You lose 120 BB /You lose 300

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Your opponent folds -N/A- /You win 180 BB /You win 300
Your opponent bets- You /check/fold = 0 N/A N/A
NET RESULT YOU WIN : 60 BB

Let’s also remember that sometimes we will improve, and sometimes our opponent will
fold on the turn. And that’s just when we don’t connect with the flop. When we do
connect, and we’ve mixed in our continuation bets effectively, we should be able to net
enough because we’ve kept our opponents off balance and guessing. One of the primary
keys to effective continuation betting is BALANCE. When you achieve effective balance,
you should actually become ambivalent as to whether your continuation bet is called or
not. For if it is called and you missed, you’re still achieving the same goal. So the next
time you do connect with a big hand on the flop and bet, your opponents have to guess,
is he just continuation betting again, or does he really have a hand?
While it is true that a lot of online opponents don’t pay particular attention because
they’re watching T.V. or they’re playing multiple tables at the same time, an effective
balancing strategy doesn’t care. We’re not concerned necessarily that they are always
paying attention, but that we vary our bets in order to provide us the best possible odds
considering the given flop and hole cards that we hold.
Keep in mind also that 70% of flops are missed by our opponents. This is one of the
primary reasons that continuation bets are so effective. If your opponent doesn’t hold a
pocket pair, or have a very small pocket pair, they may not be able to continue if you
apply the correct amount of pressure.

Good Players to Continuation Bet Against

There are some types of players that are better to continuation bet against than others.
You want to identify these players and use the continuation bet against them as often as
possible. These common player types are as follows:

The Mouse – The mouse plays a fairly weak/tight style of play. He doesn’t enter many
pots, and when he does he is almost always holding a premium hand. He will almost
never continue if the flop doesn’t hit him, or he doesn’t have a strong hand while facing
aggression. You’ll have to look hard to notice the mouse because you’d almost swear he
doesn’t exist. When you miss the flop, go ahead and take a stab at the pot, you’ll win it
uncontested more often against the mouse than any other player type. When you do
connect, try and lure him in by beating weak and inviting him to come along. If the
mouse does bet into you, fold unless you have a strong hand.
Typical Stats: VP$IP =< 12 / PFR =<3 / AGR =< .5 / WTSD =< 15

The Rock – The Rock is very similar to the mouse in that they play very few pots. They
differ only slightly in that they will sometimes call with their pocket pairs if they suspect
you are betting into them with air. Yet they are nearly as timid as the mouse, so if you
continue to apply pressure, and they hold a marginal hand, you will typically win the pot.
This is the second best player type to continuation bet against. Apply pressure to them
as much as possible, but don’t get out of line if you suspect that the rock has hit a good
flop. Test them, but also give them respect of they show too much resistance.
Typical Stats: VP$IP =< 12 / PFR =<3 / AGR =< 1 / WTSD =< 16

The Jackal – This player plays a few too many hands, but not enough that we’re worried
that non-descript boards hit him hard. He likes to try and sneak into flops cheap, and will
sometimes call raises with non-premium hands. If you’ve been playing a solid around
game, go ahead and continuation bet into him at a high rate. Jackals like to have fun and
be involved in a lot of pots, but they will typically give tight/aggressive opponents the
benefit of the doubt more often than other players. Again, if you encounter any

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resistance then step on the breaks.
Typical Stats: VP$IP =< 26 / PFR =<4 / AGR =< 1 / WTSD =< 20

The School Teacher – These opponents play a fairly straight forward ABC style of poker
that is quite predictable. They usually won’t continue on the flop unless they have top
pair or better, and they do little in terms of applying pressure. They will raise when they
have a solid hand, and when they do get ready to release your hand, unless of course
yours is very good. You can usually spot them because they’re typically making
comments about how (bad) others play, or they’re informing the table about how a hand
should have been played. These players typically understand the basics, but not much
more beyond that. Apply pressure and test them as often as possible.
Typical Stats: VP$IP =< 20 / PFR =<5 / AGR =< 1 / WTSD =< 22

The Look-up Artist – These opponents are great for your chip stack. They’ll typically
call your flop bet in hopes that you’ll give up on the turn, or in the off chance their ace
high may be the best hand. It will take awhile to spot these guys, but when you do it’s
best to bet into them, and then be prepared to fire the second bullet. These opponents
typically come in two different player types that you have to be aware of. The first is the
fairly passive player that just likes to call and hope he pairs his king or ace on the turn,
but will readily fold to a second bet. The other is usually a bit more of an aggressive
opponent that typically will call because they don’t believe your flop bet, yet they will fold
to further aggression on the turn. Either way, pay attention to players who call too many
flop bets, but fold to turn bets. Make sure you have a very good read on this opponent
before you commit too many chips to the pot with missed over cards. Don’t attempt fire
a second bullet until you get more comfortable with flop textures and turn play.
Typical Stats: VP$IP =< 40 / PFR =<5 / AGR =< 1 / WTSD =< 22

Players NOT to Continuation Bet Against

While there are several types of players you want to continuation bet, there are others
that you don’t want to continuation bet against as often. This doesn’t mean that you
won’t ever continuation bet against them, you’ll just have to apply much more discretion.
Here are a few of those player types:

The Maniac – A true maniac needs no introduction, and you’ll have little difficulty
spotting him at the table. He’ll be involved in a lot of pots, raising quite often before the
flop, and going too far with mediocre hands. The maniac knows little about calling. He’s
usually either raising, raising, or raising. If he just calls, then you should definitely slam
on the breaks. Against these opponents you just have to wait for premium hands, and
play a little bit of a rope a dope strategy. Don’t be too afraid of chasing them off though.
Even check-raises on the turn don’t faze the maniac very often. I’d recommend not
continuation betting against the maniac for he’s likely to call or raise you with any two.
You can wait for better spots against these guys. That doesn’t mean you should just
them run you over of course. If you do continuation bet, make sure you have some good
outs.
Typical Stats: VP$IP =< 65 / PFR =<12 / AGR =< 10 / WTSD =< 24

The Gambler – The gambler is fairly similar to the maniac, except he won’t be raising as
many pots, and he won’t be quite as aggressive. He will however gamble and take shots
at gut-shot draws, and overplay his second pair. Both the maniac and the gambler will be
easy to spot, as they’ll be involved in a lot of pots. The main distinction between the
gambler and the maniac is that the gambler will fold a little more often when he knows
he’s beat. If however he has any chance to outdraw you, he will often take that chance.
When you do happen to come across a big hand with the gambler it’s best to bet your
hand strong. You could employ a similar rop-a-dope strategy of checking your hands to
him and letting him do the betting for you, but the gambler, unlike the maniac, will check
behind sometimes. Thus the most optimal play is to bet into him and hope to be raised.

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You can continuation bet against the gambler a little more often then the maniac, but
make sure the flop is fairly draw-less if you do.
Typical Stats: VP$IP =< 50 / PFR =<10 / AGR =<7 / WTSD =< 24

The Calling Station – Hopefully this should be an obvious one. If you miss the flop, you
don’t want to bet into someone who will with any two, or any small piece of the flop. The
calling station will gladly call any bet you put in front of him, so don’t do it on a bluff.
Just wait for good hands that connect, and bet them all the way to the river, then make
sure to say thank you. The calling station is of course easy to spot. They’ll be the person
at the table calling and chasing every gut-shot, flush draw or one outer they can find.
They hardly ever raise, and if they do, I hope you turbo toss your hands into the muck.
Calling stations don’t bluff. I would highly recommend almost never continuation betting
your missed flops into calling stations, as you’ll likely night chase them loose, and you
may loose most of your chips trying to push them off of a hand.
Typical Stats: VP$IP =< 50 / PFR =<1 / AGR =<.25 / WTSD =< 24

The Type of Player You Are

How often you continuation bet is also very dependent upon your own personal playing
style. If you play a fairly conservative style, and don’t raise that much before the flop,
then your continuation bluff bets will likely get more respect, then let’s say a gambler
type person who raises before the flop a lot. Not only must you be aware of the types of
opponents you are facing, but you must also be aware of how you think the table
perceives your style of play.
Also, don’t just blindly adjust your continuation bet frequency based upon your playing
style that YOU actually play. Make sure that it fits how you’ve been currently playing at a
given table. Take into account the number of times you’ve been involved in recent pots,
the number times you’ve gone to showdown, how often you’ve raised, and the types of
hands that you’ve showdown. EX: You may be a somewhat conservative player who
raises around 5% of his starting hands, but let’s say you’ve just had a recent run of great
cards. If you’ve been raising a whole lot, and not showing any cards, then you suddenly
pick up AK again and raise, don’t go crazy if you miss the flop. You may even just check
and give up the pot. A lot of raising by one particular player begins to build a tension at
the table that someone eventually attempts to snap. Always be aware of your current
play and how others may perceive you. It doesn’t matter if you’ve just been playing your
normal game or not, it only matters how others “think” you are playing.
Below is a small table with suggested adjustments to make with your continuation bets,
based on your current “table image”.

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WHY AM-I C-BETTING AGAIN ? (biblio-san)

TL; DR; and a lot of these concepts are stolen directly from Green Plastic videos and
other good posters on these boards (True, Debitel, Orange, Epdaws, others I am
shamefully forgetting).

I'd greatly appreciate if we can get some discussion on these topics going. To be honest,
I almost think each of these 6 points could deserve its own thread

In SSNL, conventional wisdom is that the pre-flop aggressor should always C-bet in a
heads-up pot. There have been a lot of "When should I c-bet?" threads, and I can recall
that in many of them, the standard answer was "Heads-up? Always. 3-ways? Sometimes,
in position." I was definately one of those posters.

I think there are a couple of reasons this is popular. First, it makes for easy decisions.
Raise, C-bet, scoop pot or fold to C/R, move on, until we get to a big hand/big pot
situation, in which case decisions are also usually easy. Second, the fact that many C-
bets with made hands win the pot convinces many players that their bet was, indeed, the
correct move. After all, they won the pot, right? But on this forum, we should by now
know that it's rarely that simple. Maybe you could have won a bigger pot. Maybe you just
got lucky, and your move that is wrong 90% of the time just won the pot because this is
one of those other 10% holdings.

I couple of things have changed my mind about C-betting. Part of it is that, as you rise in
stakes, players get a lot more tricky (note that this is a separate attribute than "good":
bad players can be tricky, and good players can be tricky). They check-raise more, and
with a wider variety of hands. Bad players might check-raise with hands that they really
shouldn't check/raise with, like underpairs, or TPNK, or middle pair, and good players will
tend to balance it out more by check-raising monsters, semi-bluffs, and big overpairs.
But the range of hands players will play aggressively changes as you move up.

I think there are a few factors to think about when you are deciding whether to C-bet
your hand in a heads-up pot. To reduce the complexity of the decision trees involved,
let's (for the moment) assume 100 BB stacks, and a potsize of approximately 7-10BB.

1) The value of your hand

2) Whether or not you opened in a steal position
3) Whether or not being check-raised will present you with a difficult decision
4) Whether or not betting presents your opponent with an easy decision, or betting will
make your opponents turn/river decisions easy
5) Your position
6) Whether or not the pot is re-raised

1) The value of your hand

First, let's consider whether you have a made hand, a draw (weak or strong), or
complete air.

Made Hands

Every time you have a made hand, you should be thinking of how to extract the most
value from it vs. worse hands. In some cases you may decide that this isn't very feasible
(always trying to showdown 22 unimproved on any board is probably not a great idea).

With strong hands, the best way to get value from it is to bet it. AK on an A97 flop, for

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example. Sets on just about any flop, but especially A-high and drawy flops.

However, there are some strong hands that you should really check (at least some of the
time). If you have AK on an A72 rainbow flop, potting the flop is a pretty good way to
make just about any one-pair hand without an Ace fold. If you have KK on the same flop
(yes, this is a strong hand), you have the same problem. Many times, the best way to
get value from these hands is to check the flop, especially if you have position.

With medium strength hands, the best way to get value is never very obvious. For
example, 88 on a 459 board with two diamonds. Obviously, there are some worse hands
that might call a flop bet (67, any diamond draw), and there are also many turn cards
that you will not want to see. But, in genaral, if your opponent folds to this bet, it was
almost always a hand that you were a 2 or 3:1 favorite over. An additional problem is
that many of those "worse hands" will not just call your flop bet but will raise (see point
3). Whether or not you bet a medium-strength hand should depend on the board texture
and your opponent's tendencies with the range of hands that you are ahead of, especially
if those tendencies are identical to when he holds hands that you are behind.

Draws

There's a very good section on playing draws in Miller and Sklansky's NLHTaP, and I will
not repeat all of it, but important points are that the if your draw is not to the nuts, or is
very weak, you should be more inclined to bet. With these holdings, the value of winning
the pot outright becomes much greater than simply hitting your draw, because if your
draw is very weak, you won't hit it very often, and if your draw is not to the nuts, you
might lose a lot of money if you hit (or gain very little from worse hands).

Examples of weak non-nut draws that you should be inclined to bet are: bare overcards
(these are sometimes the best hand, yes, but if you are called, you are essentially on a
6-out draw), gutshot straight draws (if you can pick up the pot a good percentage of the
time, this makes up for winning big pots the rare times you hit, because you just don't
hit very often), low flush draws on paired boards (if you hit, you won't get a lot of action
except from the nut flush or full houses, unless players are very loose), and open-ended
straight draws on two-tone flops (again, if you hit on a flush card, you probably won't get
a lot of action).

You would also, of course, be inclined to bet very strong draws, like the nut flush draw
with two overcards, or open-ended-straight-flush draws, or pair+flushdraw combos
(although if your "pair" is the Ace, then you should be more inclined to check because it
is often the best made hand and is not vulnerable to the flush draw for obvious reasons).

With non-nut draws, you should be aware of the possibility of making your opponent
sometimes fold a better draw by firing two (or sometimes three!) barrels, which,
depending on your opponent, can make you more inclined to bet.

Complete Air

Unless you are giving up on the pot entirely, or have some reason to believe that a
delayed bluff will be more successful, I think you should just about always C-bet with
complete air -- it's one of the reasons raising a wide variety of hands pre-flop is
profitable at all.

2) Did you open in steal position?

Players will give you less credit for a hand. This might mean they are more likely to call
you lightly (so you can get more value from moderate-hands) or it may mean that they
are more likely to c/r lightly (making it hard to gain value from weak/moderate hands by

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betting).

Also, your opponents range for calling you preflop is wider when you steal from the CO
and Button. Again, depending on how the player plays with his hand range, and his
perception of your hand range, should influence your decisions on whether to C-bet,
whether you welcome a C/r, etc.

3) How much does getting check-raised suck?

If you have 3 3 on an A 3 6 board and get check-raised, you are probably doing
a little jig in front of your monitor.

If you hold A 7 on the same board, that's not so hot. How about K K ?

Notice that all those hands have very strong equity vs. the naked flush draw, but the A7
hand and especially the KK hand suck vs. most Aces.

In general, you really don't want to be put in positions where your hand is probably the
best hand, but you will have to fold because you might be crushed.

Note that in many cases, the turn action changes things greatly. For one, players very
rarely try to c/r twice, and if they do, they generally don't c/r bluff the turn with naked
draws (most players would bluff by betting after the turn was checked through). So if it
is checked to you on the turn, you can safely value bet, and you can usually fold to a c/r
without feeling the least bit bad about it.

If it is bet to you on the turn, your hand is still often best (because your opponent will be
bluffing a good % of the time, or "value betting" a weaker hand thanks to the weakness
you showed on the flop), but notice how very often your equity vs. most draws has gone
way up.

By the way, if you check a hand like KK on the above flop, resist the temptation to slow-
play if you hit your 2-outer on the turn. This is because the villain will sometimes be
semi-bluffing, and will sometimes be betting an Ace, and he is pretty unlikely to put you
on a set given the flop action, and in both cases he will very likely call a big raise.

4) Are you making it easy for Joe Tag or Mac Donkey to play this hand?

Let's go back to the A72 rainbow flop. You're making it pretty easy for both players to
play this flop if you pot it. They'll probably just fold anything less than an Ace here.
Unless you are holding complete air or a set, this is making things too easy for them,
especially if you have position (almost regardless of what made hand you hold).

There are certain made hands (33-55 being the prime examples) that benefit greatly
from a flop like this, but other made hands (like 99-KK and weak Aces) that really don't
want to make things that easy for Villain, as they are way ahead of villain's non-Ace
holdings.

5) Are you in position?

All things considered, in a heads-up pot, I'm much more inclined to bet out of position
than in position with my made hands. It's much harder to extract value from medium
strength hands (and easier to be bluffed off of them), and the value of simply winning
the pot goes way up in comparison to the value of extracting another bet from worse
hands.

6) Is this a re-raised pot?

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You shouldn't always bet in a re-raised pot. If you have a monster, the pot is big enough
to get the money in on 3 streets. And often in re-raised pots, your bets are only going to
be called by a very narrow range of hands, which is fine if you hold air, or if you have a
set, or AA on 743 flop, but not so hot if you hold KK on a QJx flop, or QQ on an A72 flop.

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Some thoughts on continuation bet sizing (Panthro)

Most 2+2’ers are familiar with the 4xBB + BB/limper preflop betsizing methodology, but
what about post flop? Do we always bet the pot? Min bet? Shove? On one hand, if you
always bet too much, you’re going to lose the most when your opponent calls with a
hand that’s better than yours. On the other hand, when you always bet too little, you’re
offering your opponent correct pot odds to continue with drawing hands and suck out on
you. Obviously, we want our bet sizes to encourage our opponents to make mistakes
against us; Big mistakes; Mistakes that maximize our expectation. So how much do we
bet? What factors should we consider before sizing our bets?
In this article I plan on discussing some of the more common methodologies regarding
sizing your continuation bets and some of the advantages and disadvantages that
accompany the various tactics. Note that this article will not cover the “ifs” and “when’s”
to continuation bet, or what conditions make a bet +EV or –EV, types of villains or flops
to cbet, etc; I’ll leave that for another time. Rather, I’d like to focus explicitly on bet
sizing strategies and the rationales behind why we may find it optimal to utilize a specific
approach over another. It’s also worth noting that I don’t consider any one strategy to be
any more or less favorable than any other; This write-up is simply an attempt to get
people thinking as to why they’re betting a precise amount and the implications related
with the size of their bets in different situations.

Methodology #1: Sizing your bets based on the strength of your hand
Seems straightforward enough; When you have a strong hand, you want to maximize
your winnings and play a big pot, and when you have a weak hand, you want to minimize
your losses and play a small pot. So you bet as the smallest amount your opponents will
let you get away with when you’re bluffing, and the largest amount you think your
opponents will call when you have a strong hand. On the one hand, risking a large
amount just seems silly when you can bet smaller and achieve the same result; On the
flip side, you’re losing a ton of value when you make a small bet when your opponent
would have called a much larger bet. Theoretically, this approach would be almost
flawless and poker would be much easier if our bets somehow didn’t represent the actual
strength of our hand.
The obvious drawback to using this tactic is that you become very exploitable to
observant opponents, as they’ll soon realize that your bet sizing represents the exact
strength of your hand. A solid villain will correctly fold his marginal holding facing your
pot sized bet, and will interpret your smaller bets as weakness and raise you off your
hand, or float with the intention of taking the pot away it away on a later street. By
telegraphing the strength of your hand with the size of your bet, you’re allowing your
opponents to play perfectly against you, and you’ll wonder why you always get raised
when you have nothing and always get folds when you flop the nuts.

Works best against: Weaker villains, villains who call preflop raises to play fit or fold,
villains who don’t show aggression against weak bets without a hand.

Disadvantages: Against good/observant villains you lose action on your big hands, and
have pots stolen from you when you show weakness with small(er) bets. Lack of balance.

Methodology #2: Vary your bet sizing based on the texture of the board
The general idea being to vary your bet sizing based on the texture of the board(duh) –
bigger bets on more coordinated boards and smaller bets on less coordinated or dry
boards. Since the texture of the flop impacts the shape of the hand distributions, that is,
hands that the board ‘hits’ are much greater on coordinated boards than on dry boards,

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we make our bets larger on drawy boards and smaller on dry boards Since dry boards
miss most hands, we can bet a smaller amount (~½ to 2/3rds of the pot) that will often
achieve the same result as a larger bet with less risk. On draw heavy boards that hit a
wide range of hands, we can make larger bets (~2/3rds to the full size of the pot) to
deny drawing hands proper odds to continue that a smaller bet may not have. This
strategy is very advantageous against the type of villain who will raise smaller
continuation bets with drawing hands sensing weakness, but is more liable to flat call a
larger bet sensing strength. After all, the semi-bluff can difficult to defend against with
marginal one pair type hands, and we’d much prefer our opponents to play passively
against us. Also, when we make large bets on drawy boards with strong hands, we’re
anticipating getting a lot of money in the middle before the river when many drawing
hands in our opponents range become worthless. It is also worth mentioning that by
using a bet size methodology that advocates using consistent bet sizes relative to the
texture of the board and not your hole cards, you effectively disguise your hand to your
opponents.

Lets look at 3 examples: a dry board, a somewhat coordinated board, and a very
coordinated board, and some bet sizes we may decide to fire into each pot.

Example 1: a dry board

Hero (BTN): $100
SB: $100

Preflop: Hero is dealt X, Y (6 Players)

4 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.5, BB folds

Flop: ($9) A 2 8 (2 Players)

SB checks, Hero bets $5.50

Example 2: a middling drawy board

Hero (BTN): $100
SB: $100

Preflop: Hero is dealt X, Y (6 Players)

4 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.5, BB folds

Flop: ($9) 8 4 9 (2 Players)

SB checks, Hero bets $7

Example 3: a very drawy board

Hero (BTN): $100
SB: $100

Preflop: Hero is dealt X, Y (6 Players)

4 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.5, BB folds

Flop: ($9) 9 Q J (2 Players)

SB checks, Hero bets $8

Works best against: all villains.

Disadvantages: Small increase in losses with weaker hands/bluffs from balancing bet
sizing with stronger hands and vice-versa.

Methodology #3: Adjusting your bet sizing based on the depth of the stacks

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relative to the size of the pot
Without divulging into too much theory, stack sizes can help us extrapolate an optimal
percentage of the pot to bet. The whole idea of geometric growth (credit “The
Mathematics of Poker”) is essentially betting a consistent percentage of the pot on each
street to get our effective stack ‘all in’ comfortably by the river, a concept critical to
success in NLHE. It should seem obvious that when we flop a monster, we want to get as
much money as possible in the middle to maximize our winnings.
One of the most important aspects of stack sizes in NLHE is how they affect implied odds.
When we adjust our bet sizing based on the effective stack sizes, we can reduce our
opponents implied odds to call bets on early streets with inferior hands in hopes of
drawing to a better hand. Also, if we assume 100BB effective stacks, it does make a lot
of sense why we would prefer to bet a smaller percentage of the pot when the pot is
large, and a larger percentage of the pot when the pot is small, both from a practical and
mathematical standpoint.

A really really basic example:

Hero (BTN): $121
SB: $200

Preflop: Hero is dealt X, Y (6 Players)

4 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.5, BB folds

In this example, the pot is $9 and the effective stack sizes are $117 (13 times the size of
the pot), so betting 100% of the pot on all three streets should get our stack all in by the
river.

Flop: ($9) 8 5 J (2 Players)

SB checks, Hero bets $9, SB calls.

Turn: ($27) 3 (2 Players)

SB checks, Hero bets $27, SB calls.

River: ($81) Q (2 Players)

SB checks, Hero bets $81 and is all-in

Lastly, I should point out that ponicaraux made a cool write-up entitled Get it in where
he mentions similar concepts.

Works best against: all villains.

Disadvantages: Small increase in losses with weaker hands/bluffs from balancing bet
sizing with stronger hands. Not always optimal/feasible with deeper stacks.

Methodology #4: Always bet the pot

Many UB/FT’ers religiously use the “bet pot” button to size their bets. By making the
same sized bets relative to the size of the pot, you again completely disguise your hand
to your opponents. Against weaker/passive players, always betting the pot seems
optimal because you build bigger pots when you’re the aggressor, and you can set
yourself up for larger bets on later streets with strong hands. Weak-tight players will give
up easier against you knowing they’ll be facing large pot sized bets on every street.
The drawback of this approach is that consistently building large pots results in very high
variance, especially for a LAG who is playing a high number of marginal holdings. Since
the pots are bigger, you will often find yourself facing difficult situations with medium
strength hands, as building big pots against aggressive opponents who will check-raise
with air and draws and try to push you off your hand can get expensive. Also, playing big

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pots regardless of hand strength reduces your ability to utilize pot control, as every pot
you play in as the aggressor will be of the same size (number of opponents is relevant
here). Lastly, by always betting pot you’re risking a lot to win a little when you’re
bluffing.

Works best against: all villains

Disadvantages: Higher variance; Small increase in losses with weaker hands/bluffs

from balancing bet sizing with stronger hands.

Methodology #5: Always bet x% of the pot, where x is some fixed predefined
number
I’ll refer to this as the multitabelers theorem because many 2+2’ers use a bet pot script
to handle their bet sizing. They usually have it set up to bet some arbitrary percentage
based on the current size of the pot (often in the neighborhood of 60% to 100%
depending on preference). As with the previous methodology, it can be very
difficult/impossible for opponents to deduce the strength of your hand if you’re always
making the same size bet whether you’ve hit the flop or not. With a smaller continuation
bet size than the ‘bet pot’ advocacy, you can take a stab at more pots while risking a
smaller amount of chips. Most of the same disadvantages associated with the
aforementioned bet pot methodology are apparent in this theorem.

Works best against: all villains.

Disadvantages: Small increase in losses with weaker hands/bluffs from balancing bet
sizing with stronger hands and vice-versa.

Methodology #6: Overbetting the pot

Making a large overbet doesn’t have to work all that often for it to be a profitable play.
Some opponents will interpret your overbet as weakness or a bluff and call down with a
marginal hand. Using this strategy extracts maximum value from ‘calling stations’ who
won’t fold with any piece of the board, and the so called ‘chasers’ who won’t fold any
kind of draw on any street. You can extract a large amount of chips before the river when
missed draws become worthless and induce river bluffs from villains who have missed
their draws and find themselves pot committed. I’ve had some success using this
strategy after losing a large pot when my opponents perceive me to be on tilt, or in blind
battles where opponents always think an aggressive player is FOS and trying to buy the
pot.

Works best against: Weak players, calling stations, chasers, villains who don’t like to
fold, villains who like to make hero calls and pick off bluffs.

Disadvantages: Bigger bets may lose action when a smaller bet would not have.
Balancing overbetting strong made hands with weaker hands/bluffs can be difficult
and/or suboptimal.

Methodology #7: Adjust your bet sizing on the objective you’re trying to achieve
-- credit Ray Zee, soah and a few other HSNL/MSNL 2+2’ers

The idea being to adjust your bets to manipulate your opponents into playing not only
the pot size of your choosing, but the actions you may want your opponents to take

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against you. Sometimes you want to bet smaller when OOP to price yourself into seeing
cheap cards, or to pick up the pot with minimal risk, or to induce a raise; Or bet larger to
force your opponents to fold, or at the very least force them into a difficult decision as to
whether or not they should continue with the hand. As an example, we might choose to
make smaller ½ pot bets when you want action or want to induce a raise, and bet the
pot when you don’t want action or want to discourage opponents from making plays or
calling down lightly.
The disadvantage of any complex bet sizing methodology is that our opponents may or
may not construe the information we had hoped to associate with our bet sizes as we
have intended. Say for example, we make a bet of size A because we want our opponent
to take action X; In response our opponent may instead decide to take action Y because
they interpret our bet of size A much differently than a bet of size B, despite the fact that
we anticipated this opponent to be much less likely to take action Y over action X if we
made a bet of value A instead of value B. Still with me? OK, enough theory mumbo
jumbo, let’s look at a really simple example where we might be able to manipulate our
opponents into taking specific actions against us by varying our bet sizes.

Hand 1:
Hero (UTG): $100
BTN: $100

Preflop: Hero is dealt T , T (6 Players)

Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 8 3 A (2 Players)

Hero bets $5.50…

We’ll play the role of hero, a 18/14 thinking TAG who uses a highly varied bet sizing
methodology. We open UTG open get called by the 20/10 button. In our short history, we
view the button as an aggressive villain who is capable of making a move. With a dry Ace
high flop, we decide to make slightly over half pot size continuation bet expecting the
button to fold all worst hands and call or raise all better hands.

Flop: ($9.50) 8 3 A (2 Players)

Hero bets $5.50, BTN raises $20

Easy fold right? Well, maybe. Could the button have interpreted our ~½ pot sized bet as
weakness? Would a 2/3rds or near pot sized bet be more sufficient in representing a
strong hand? Would the button be less likely to make a play facing a larger bet?

In the actual hand hero folded, the on collected the pot and exposed his hole cards, J
Q .

So what have learned from this hand? The actions taken by this particular villain may or
may not have been prejudiced by the size of our bet. Maybe the button was planning on
making a play regardless of our bet size, and maybe he wasn’t. Nevertheless, it is
something to keep in mind. On to the next meeting…

Hand 2: (same villain)

Hero (UTG): $100
BTN: $100

Preflop: Hero is dealt A , Q (6 Players)

Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 5 K T (2 Players)

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Hero bets $8…

In this hand, we have a read that this villain may have interpreted our smaller
continuation bet as weakness, so we adjust by making a larger bet with a hand that we
don’t necessarily want action with.

Flop: ($9.50) 5 K T (2 Players)

Hero bets $8, BTN folds.

The button folds and hero collects the pot. We now have a stronger suspicion that this
villain may perceive our smaller continuation bets as weakness and larger continuation
bets as strength, and we intend to exploit our read by manipulating our opponent into
making a mistake. Now again, this may or may not be the case; Maybe the button
decided to fold in this hand given he recently made a play against us, or maybe he had a
timing tell and felt we were stronger in this hand than in the previous one. However, in a
game with no absolutes, we still plan on experimenting with our newly gained
information in an effort to size our bets to incite specific responses against this opponent
in the future.

Hand 3: (same villain)

Hero (UTG): $100
BTN: $100

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7 , 7 (6 Players)

Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 7 J 2 (2 Players)

Hero bets $5.50…

Using previous history and our read on villain, we can now make the same small
continuation bet we made back in hand 1 in an attempt to induce either a call from a
weak hand or a bluff raise.

Flop: ($9.50) 7 J 2 (2 Players)

Hero bets $5.50, BTN raises $20, Hero calls $14.50.

Turn: ($49.50) K (2 Players)

Hero checks, BTN bets $38, Hero raises all-in, BTN calls all-in.

Ship it. Button mucks K T and hero collects the pot.

Now obviously, our static strategy won’t work forever on this particular villain, so we’ll
need to make continuous adjustments. The next time we flop a strong hand we might
make a larger bet, or make a smaller bet when we’re bluffing. The idea is to adjust better
than your opponent does, and yet still be able to manipulate them into doing what you
want them to do.
Do note, that with this simple illustration we’ve only begun to scratch the surface in
realizing how powerful a highly varied bet sizing methodology can be. We’re not
necessarily always trying to deceive our opponents with our bet sizes, but rather, betting
an amount that maximizes our expectation which is the size of our opponent’s possible
mistake times the chance he will make that mistake (Sklansky, Miller; NLHETAP; p57).

Works bets against: villains who we have a very good read on.

Disadvantages: By varying our bet sizes based on a specific set of objectives, we may
face difficult decisions on later streets as opponents reactions may or may not be
influenced by the size of our bets. Requires constant adaptation.

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There are some things I haven’t covered that are worth noting, such as adjusting bet
sizing based on your opponents estimated hand ranges, adjusting your bet sizing based
on position, number of opponents, your image, history, etc;

Feel free to add any thoughts/criticisms.

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DOUBLE BARRELING (orange)

Hey guys,

Just thought I'd write a little something.

On Double Barreling:

This is a concept not widely used in uNL or even SSNL. It is a very common play in
MSNL+, where the aggression is much higher and more frequent than those games that
we play. It can be an effective play used in many different manners.

What is Double Barreling?

Double Barreling is exactly that. Firing two barrels. The purposes can be very many-
from pure bluffing against a suspected float or semi-bluffing with a nice draw, the double
barrel is effective.

When double barreling:

-We mix our ranges so that when we bet the turn after raising PF/betting the flop, our
hand is NOT always the nuts/strong hand. Our ranges are wider and therefore harder to
read.
-Along with that, we gain more action to when we DO actually have a hand.
-When applied correctly to certain players, we either dictate the action and set ourselves
odds in which we would not have received (when double barreling draws) and enable
ourselves another chance at winning the pot other than improving.

Some examples of double barreling:

(Assume all situations are 100BBs/6max).

The first and very standard one:

You open xx in the CO, BB calls, all else fold.

Flop: T 2 9
BB checks, You bet, BB calls

Turn: A/K/paint
BB checks, You bet, he folds.

This is pretty much the standard double barrel line. We bet because the paint changed
the board and therefore hand values. A villain should be much stronger if your betting
(and repping) that paint card (and should fear a river bet if he calls). This is a very
standard double barreling line used against all opponents.

As you move in limits, this common knowledge can be exploited (ie. calling much wider,
bluff raising the double barrel because you know the opponent would double on this
board nearly everytime, etc). But for now, this is still a nice play, and one that CAN be
used for value too (ie. having AK on that such board and betting the turn).

Your raise A K to 4xbb. You get a TAG caller on the button, all else fold.

(10bb)Flop: T 6 6
You bet 6bb, he calls

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(22bb)2
You bet 15bb, and he folds.

Notes: This is a common line used most against TAGgy regulars. This play is often used
against more competent players as donkeys will continue to call with 77 and other
marginal hands. As of PF/flop action, we can generally narrow TAG's hand range to a pp
or some float. By double barreling, we generally fold out better hands against a very
predictable range. The TAG should be thinking "he knows that the turn changed nothing,
why is he betting? He must be strong"

#3:

You raise A 7 , Button calls, all else fold. He is an unknown player.

(10bbs)Flop: 4 T K
You bet 8bb, He calls.

(26bb)Turn: 2
You bet 17bb

There are a few reasons why double barreling on these boards is nice. You set your own
price for a draw, one that your opponent may not have given you. You also enable
yourself another chance to win the pot other than improving (as stated earlier, and also
the definition of a semi-bluff). In CR, GP states that K high boards are excellent ones to
double barrel on, simply because you are representing a ton of strength.

As stated earlier, your hand range is widened - many times, you would be double
barreling with AK and the like in this spot. Try exchanging A 7 with AK/a set/QJ and
you still may very well be double barreling. Mixing your strong hands with draws is an
essential skill that evolves into 5th level thinking in the HSNL games (ie. bet sizing/etc).

Betting the turn makes river play GENERALLY pretty easy. If your opponent is one that
will fold to aggression, you can triple barrel at times. If he's determined and willing to go
far with this hand, you can c/f- (probably the best selection for those in uNL).

Another instance in which it might be nice to double with a draw is when you pick up a
draw on the turn.

You open 6 7 someone calls.

Flop: T 2 4
You bet, he calls

Turn: 8
You should bet

Again, it goes along with the semibluffing thing. Sorry, forgot to add this little snipit
(edit), one thing I forgot.

There are many more instances in which double barreling is effective, these are just a
few. Think for yourself on some other spots and share them.

185
GET IT IN (poincaraux)

[Note: I started writing this up, and then got busy. It's still probably too long-winded for
many people to actually read it, but I thought the EV calculations in the middle were
pretty enlightening. Cliff's notes: bet more]

In another thread yesterday, 4_2_it said

Quote:
When you flop a monster the first thing you should do is look at stack sizes and figure out
what size bets on each street gets everything in the middle.

I've thought about this before, and I think about it sometimes during the hands, but not
enough. I wrote this up on the fly, and hadn't really thought so explicitly about this stuff
before, so please give me some feedback. The basic idea is that, when we flop a
monster, we want to think about lines that will get as much of our stack in the middle as
possible. Ideally, if there's money left to bet on the river, we want the pot to be bigger
than our stack. The bigger the pot is, the easier it is for the villain to make a crying call.

Let's think about two standard lines:

One villain, normal stacks, hero raises in position pre-flop

I play a lot of hands that are effectively like this.

To make the numbers easy, let's say it's $100NL, 6-max and this happens:

Preflop: UTG limps, Hero raises to $4, UTG calls, everyone else folds.

Flop: ($10, 2 players, stacks $95).

One bet per street, hero flops the nuts and wants to get all the money in.
The two hands that made me think about this were hands where Hero had Ace-rag suited
and flopped the nut flush.
What are the lines?
If there's only one bet per street, I think the standard 2+2 lines are pot-it-all-the-way-
baby and 3/4-on-the-flop-2/3-on-the-turn.

 pot-pot gives us $30 in the pot and $85 in our stack on the turn and
$90 in the pot, $55 in our stack when we see the river, and we're asking villain to
put in a little more than 1/2-pot on the river.
 3/4-pot, 2/3-pot has us betting $7.50 on the flop, seeing the turn with $25 in the
pot and $87.50 in our stacks, betting $17 on the turn and ending up at the river
with $70 in our stack and $60 in the pot.

How much are they worth

So, there's a *huge* difference between those two lines. Let's say, for instance, that
villain has donk-certified calling hand against you, like TPTK. He'll probably call
reasonable-sized bets, but be less likely to call an overbet. Let's see how he stacks up
(ha!!!) against the two lines.

 Against the 3/4,2/3 line, let's say he'll always call the flop, call the turn 80% of
the time, but only call the river overbet 50% of the time. We'll analyze things

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 from the flop on. Then, our EV is

1.0*(10 + 7.5) + 0.8*(17 + 0.5*(70)) = $59.

 For the pot-pot line, let's say he'll always call the flop. Similarly, he'll always call
the river if he gets there because there's so much money in the pot. What's our
EV if he'll fold the turn more often, though? Let's say he folds the turn a lot, like
50% of the time. Then our EV is

1.0*(10 + 10) + 0.5*(30 + 55) = $62.5.

It turns out that he only has to call 46% of the time on the turn for the lines to
have the same EV. What if he's a more typical calling-station kind of guy and calls
more like 70% of the time on the turn? Then our EV is $80. That's 1/3 more
money than we were making with the smaller bets. Intuitively, you can see that
the villain will have to be a *lot* more likely to fold to the pot-pot line before we
start using the 3/4,2/3 line. In practice, this means that I'm much more likely to
go pot-pot on scary boards, either because I have the scary hand, or because I
don't want villains drawing to it.

So, unless you think that villain is savvy enough to make some real adjustments based
on the various lines you take, you should be betting quite a bit when you have a great
hand. The key is thinking ahead on the early streets. We want to set things up so that,
when the villain decides he'll call a 1/2-pot bet on the river, that 1/2-pot bet is a lot of
money. Pots grow exponentially, so betting just a little more early on can make a big
difference later on.

With shorter stacks, you won't be able to make sizeable bets on all streets. As stacks get
deeper, this concept gets more important. With big hands, I usually try to squeeze out as
much value as I possibly can on the early streets, because it makes it that much easier
to get more value on the later streets.

Just so that you don't have to work it out on the fly, if there's $10 in the pot on the flop,
pot-pot-pot bets will be bets of $10, $30 and $90, and we'll get about $130 of your stack
in. That is, if it's going to go pot-pot-pot, you can get 13x the pre-flop money in.

If it's going to go pot-pot-1/2pot, the bets will be $10, $30, $45, and we'll get $85 in, so
you can get 8.5x the pre-flop money in.

If it's going to go 3/4, 2/3, 1/2, the bets will be $7.5, $17, $30 and we'll get $54 in, so
you can get about 5x the pre-flop money in that way.

So, if we have full stacks and want to get it in, 3/4, 2/3, 1/2 isn't good enough. Why am
I focusing on smaller bets on the river? Well, it's quite possible that, in situations like
this, he'll have an OK hand with a draw that missed on the river. I want most of the
money in before then so that he can make a crying call.

More than one bet per street

When we flop a monster, we can run into a lot of situations where the villain has a good
draw. In that situation, it's likely that we can get more than one bet in per street. Then
again, those extra bets are usually on the flop.

A lot of that transfers pretty easily when you start thinking about b3b, cr, etc. The key is
to think "if I bet this much, the pot will be that much on the next street and the stack
sizes will be blah blah."

187
If there's $10 in the pot, and it goes bet-raise on the flop, you might get $20 in on the
flop. If it goes pot-call, pot-call after that, you'll put in $50 on the turn and $150 on the
river, getting $220 of your stack in. So, when you're playing against someone who has a
2x stack, it's important to raise early on to set things up to get the stacks in later on.
(We'll often want to bet less on the river, though).

Hmmn .. that sounds like the hand from the post I referred to earlier:

Quote:
UTG ($26.81)
MP ($30.50)
CO ($9.75)
Hero ($38.62)
SB ($41.49)
BB ($47.10)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , 2 . SB posts a blind of $0.10.
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75.
Flop: ($2.10) 9 , Q , T (2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero raises to $2, BB calls $1.
Turn: ($6.10) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $3.03, Hero raises to $7, BB calls $3.97.
River: ($20.10) J (2 players)
BB checks.HERO?

So, hero ends up with $30 in his stack and $20 in the pot, making it pretty hard to get
the rest in. In this specific case, there was some history, and villain was pretty likely to
think he was getting pushed around, so a push from the hero got a stubborn call. Just for
fun, though, let's see how this would have played out with bigger bets:

If hero makes about a pot-sized raise on the flop, it will look like

Flop: ($2.10) 9 , Q , T (2 players)

BB bets $1, Hero raises to $4, BB calls $3.

Now, even if villain goes into check-call mode,

Turn: ($10.10) 7 (2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets to $10, BB calls $10.

And we see the river with $30 in the pot and $23 in our stack.

188
PLAYING JUNK FROM LATE POSITION (tannenj)

My current VPIP/PFR stats: UTG: 11/11. MP: 11/11. CO: 22/20. BTN: 30/27. My attempt
to steal blinds percentage: 31. The last five numbers used to be even higher when I was
playing a higher variance style; I’m sure many good players can provide numbers higher
than these. Note how sharply the numbers jump from MP to CO, and from CO to BTN.
Winning players generally make most of their money from late position (cutoff and
button).

From late position, I’ll often raise with anything suited, anything connected, and if
conditions are right, any two cards.

Why Do It?

In order of importance:

1. To steal the blinds:

There’s little reason for me to elaborate much on this; Pokey covered all the details (and
more) in his thread. The gist of it is that stealing blinds = $$$; if you check
PokerTracker, you’ll see that your PTBB/100 skyrockets when you attempt to steal the
blinds. If you want to steal the blinds 25, 30, 35 percent of the time that you’re on the
button, you have to be willing to raise 25, 30, 35 percent of the hands you’re dealt from
this position (actually, the percentages are even higher, because PT only registers a blind
steal attempt if there are no limpers to you). If you want to raise 30 percent of your
hands from the button, you’re gonna have to raise some absolute junk.

2. Position makes it profitable to play many more hands:

If, in theory, it’s profitable to play X% of hands UTG at a 6max game, then it will be
profitable to play X+Y% (Y>0) of the hands you’re dealt on the button. Position is a
HUGE advantage; obviously, this is not a new concept for SSNL.

3. Table image/metagame (this is less important than the above two reasons, but still
worthy of a mention in my opinion):

When weak players see you show down 75o after raising preflop from the button, they’ll
think you’re a fish and give you action the next time you raise aces UTG. Stronger
players might realize you’re positionally aware, but A) sometimes you’ll get aces on the
button, B) if they suspect you’re playing a bunch of junk from late position and decide to
tangle with you without hands, guess what? In general, neither of you will have hands,
and you’ll have position after the flop comes, and C) at SSNL, strong players are MUCH
less common than weak players.

When To Do It?

1. Use PT stats:

If you’re on the button, use the statistics “Folds BB to steal” and “Folds SB to steal” to
evaluate the preflop tendencies of the players in the blinds. It is notable that you can
only get these statistics in your hud if you have Poker Ace Hud. This is one of many
reasons to upgrade if you’re using GameTime Plus, but that’s an issue that probably
deserves its own thread. In general, the more these players are relinquishing their
blinds, the better, but this doesn’t necessarily mean I won’t steal if I expect to be called.
If, say, I’m on the button, the SB is a nit who folds his blind to steals every time, and the

189
bb is a 65/1/1 fish who A) rarely folds his blind and B) rarely folds postflop, I’ll raise to
isolate the fish with almost any two cards.

If you’re in the CO, you’ll still want to glance at the percentage of time the blinds fold to
steals, but you’ll also want to look at the percentage of time the button calls a preflop
raise. In the past, I’ve been guilty of not paying enough attention to this statistic; if the
player on the button is constantly calling raises preflop and has a reasonable postflop
game, it makes sense to cut down on the junk you’re playing from the CO.

2. Use non-statistical reads:

Maybe you’re on the button, and the players in the blinds tend to defend their blinds by
calling preflop, but tend to shut down if they miss postflop. In a case like this, it’s
profitable to raise (and continuation bet, of course) with any two cards. Maybe effective
stats are deep, and neither of the tags in the blinds likes to fold to steals, but both of
them have a tendency to overvalue top pair, overpairs, etc. I’ll be much more likely to
raise with junk in a spot like this than with 100bb stacks against players in the blinds
whom I respect. I could spend time coming up with more examples; the bottom line is
that it’s not difficult to find “excuses” to play more hands if you’re a thinking player and
will have position throughout the hand.

How To Play With Your Junk After The Flop

WARNING: NOT EVEN CLOSE TO SAFE FOR WORK

But seriously, when I came up with the idea for this post, I intended for this section to be
the meat of it. Playing junk from late position is easy when you pop it up preflop,
everyone folds, and you get the blinds. But sometimes you’ll get a caller or two. What
follows is a list of the situations in which you’ll find yourself when you raise from late
position with a not-so-great hand and get called, and fabricated hands designed to
illustrate the written principles. For simplification, I’ll assume that there’s one villain per
hand, that the villain won’t 3bet preflop, that he won’t donkbet the flop, and that stacks
are always 100 BBs. This is obviously unrealistic, but this article is theoretical in nature.
Note that I ordered the three categories in this list in a way that I think proceeds from
easiest to hardest to play, and also in a way that I think proceeds from least interesting
to most interesting:

1. You hit the flop hard (two pair, trips, set, straight, flush, boat, quads, royal
flush, big draw):

You lucked out with your junk, and it’s time to get the villain’s monies. Slowplaying can
be a reasonable option once in a while when A) you have the board crippled and your
hand is beastly enough to let the villain catch up without having to worry about being
outdrawn, or B) the villain is a thinking player and you want to throw him a curveball for
shania’s sake. But in general, you flopped huge and want to get some money in the pot.
Poker at its core is about playing big pots with big hands. You have a big hand, so start
building the pot. Bet, bet, bet is usually the play here. If a scare card hits, you’ll want to
slow down sometimes; this is read-dependent, of course.

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game

6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not

190
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200

Preflop: 5 4 ($3, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

Everyone folded to you. You don’t have to do it every time, but this is a good spot to try
to pick up the blinds.

Flop: 5 A 4 ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13

One caller. That’s about the best flop you can ask for. The board has two diamonds, and
I didn’t provide a read on the villain, so there’s no reason to slowplay. I like a bet of
close to the pot because the board is drawy.

Turn: J ($41, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $35, BB calls $35

Same logic as above, really. Our hand is vulnerable, but at this point it’s almost always
the best hand, so bombs away.

River: 6 ($111, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $78, BB folds

Bet size is preference. Since there’s no need to protect anymore, it’s reasonable to make
a smaller bet. I have shoved in these spots before, though.

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game

6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200

Preflop: 8 6 ($3, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

Blinds, position, metagame, etc.

Flop: 6 J 6 ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB raises to $29, Hero calls $18

When the board is drawless, I tend to continuation bet a bit smaller. Yum, he raised.
You’re not afraid of being outdrawn (he has two outs at most), so call and let him think
continue to think his AJ is the best hand or fire another barrel with air. It’s possible that
he has something like A6, but when you raise preflop with a 6 in your hand and flop trips
with it, you’re not folding the hand when the stacks are this size.

Turn: T ($73, 2 players)

191
BB bets $60, Hero shoves, BB folds

The turn was another diamond and provided air like KQ and AQ with straight draws, so
he there’s a small possibility that he has some outs now. I can see just calling anyway --
and I’d do it fairly often, especially with the right read -- but shoving is a bit safer and
perfectly reasonable.

Read: The villain in the following hand is a level one thinker with no handreading skills.
He plays at about 25/9/1.5, and has a tendency to call big bets with draws, to go too far
with top pair, etc.

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game

6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200

Preflop: T 7 ($3, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

See above.

Flop: 2 9 8 ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13

You flopped an open-ended straight flush draw, which is a favorite over any hand except
a set (and even against a set, it has about 42% equity). It’s possible that the villain has
you in bad shape with something like K J , but it’s unwise to worry about that; you
should think of your hand as an absolute monster. You want to throw out on a
continuation bet on the flop because you have an equity advantage over the villain’s
range and you want to build the pot. If you get raised, you’re shoving. If you get called
and hit on the turn, you’re making another big bet. If you get called and miss on the
turn, both betting and checking are reasonable; the better the villain, the better an
option betting becomes, in my opinion. This is the case because a good player will
generally raise a wet flop like this with a big hand, and if a good player doesn’t have a
big hand, he won’t call a turn bet.

Sidenote -- it’s important at this point to clarify what I meant above when I used the
phrase “big draw.” Everyone knows what the terms two pair, trips, set, straight, flush,
boat, quads, and royal flush mean, but the phrase “big draw” is somewhat ambiguous.
An OESFD will always be a big draw, but how about an open-ended straight draw, a flush
draw, a gutshot and two overcards, etc.? A “big draw,” for the purpose of this article, is
just a draw that you’re willing to felt on the flop. This is heavily dependent on reads and
flow, of course; it’s more of a “feel” thing than a science.

Turn: Q ($41, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks.

Our read indicates that checking is probably better than betting in this spot. We’re not
confident that the villain will fold to a bet, and our hand no longer has an equity
advantage over a pair. Betting is good because it disguises your hand, but the villain is

192
only thinking on one level and will probably pay off a river bet if you hit anyway.
Checking does carry the disadvantage of making it impossible to stack the villain if we hit
on the river, but rarely in poker are there flawless plays.

River: K ($41, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $30, BB calls $30

Time to value bet.

Read: The villain in the following hand is very aggressive postflop and likes to raise your
continuation bets with a wide variety of hands. He’s a solid player, though, and has
respect for your play.

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game

6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200

Preflop: 7 9 ($3, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

See above.

Flop: 6 Q 8 ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB raises to $40, Hero shoves, BB folds

I’m calling this a “big draw” and including it in the first category of hands because
against this villain, you’re willing to reraise all in with it after he check-raises your
continuation bet. You have at least eight outs no matter what the villain is holding and
against a hand like AQ, you’re less than a 2:1 dog. The villain’s range is very wide, and
he’ll fold often enough to the shove for it to be a good play.

2. You missed the flop entirely (no pair, very little drawing potential):

Your hand is more or less hopeless at this point, and the only way to win the pot is to
bet. The play in this spot is generally to make a pure bluff on the flop, and to continue at
times on the turn (and I don’t make a habit of three-barreling, but sometimes it’s +EV
with the right board and the right read). Against the 65/1/1 type I described at the
beginning of the post, the best play is often just passing up on a continuation bet and
shutting down. It might feel strange to raise preflop with a garbage hand and then not
even bet the flop, but if he’s not folding and you have a minute chance of improving to a
real hand, putting more money in the pot might as well be burning it.

Read: The villain in the following hand is a straightforward tag, say 17/13/3.5 or so. He
plays solid, but you’ve played a ton of hands with him and never seen him make a move
or a “tricky” play postflop.

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game

6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

193
Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200

Preflop: 7 6 ($3, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

I’m raising suited connectors in this spot almost every time.

Flop: K Q 3 ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13

Bad flop. The club provides our hand with a runner flush draw, but that’s hardly a good
draw. You want to bet based on the texture of the flop and not on the strength of your
hand, so you make the same bet as you made with the monster hand on the drawy flop
above. He calls, which more or less means he has a king, a queen, JT, or diamonds.

Turn: 2 ($41, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $35, BB folds

The turn is a brick, which is a good thing in this spot. Betting here is a solid option,
because A) the villain is straightforward enough that we can assign him a fairly tight
range, and B) most of his range will fold to a turn bet. The villain most likely won’t
continue to draw against us with these pot odds, and there’s a good chance he’ll fold a
queen, maybe even the weaker kings in his range. Not a play I’d make every time, but
this is a thinking player’s turn bet.

Read: The villain in the following hand has folded to 7 of 11 continuation bets thus far,
but aside from that seems like a donk and Poker Ace Hud shows that he has gone to
showdown 28 percent of the time, which is fairly high.

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game

6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200

Preflop: J 8 ($3, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

Blinds, position, suited cards, implied odds, etc. You know the big blind has a tendency to
pay off. Raising will steal the blinds pretty often, and if you flop big, you might get
rewarded with a stack.

Flop: A Q 5 ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB calls $11

194
He’s folded more than half the time to continuation bets, so theoretically even a full pot
cbet should show a profit. You bet a little over two thirds of the pot because the flop is
pretty dry and again, consistency is a good thing.

Turn: 5 ($37, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks

The continuation bet didn’t work, the runner flush draw we flopped was eliminated by the
turn card, and our read is that this villain likes to go to showdown. We still don’t have a
pair, so we can’t semibluff either. Now is a good time to give up.

River: 2 ($37, 2 players)

BB bets $24, Hero folds

J-high is good almost never in this spot, even against this villain, and raising is just
asking for it. As Taylor Caby would say, just pitch the hand.

Read: The villain in the following hand is the 65/1/1 megafish described earlier. He has
folded to continuation bets only two times out of 15 and gone to showdown 53 percent of
the hands he’s played.

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game

6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200

Preflop: Q T ($3, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

You know the big blind is probably calling preflop, but raising is good anyway because it’s
+EV to isolate this dude with pretty much any two cards, especially with position.

Flop: 2 K 4 ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks

He’s not folding, so there’s little reason to bet. If you’d flopped top pair (either the queen
or the T) you’d be betting this flop with a plan to get three streets of value. The only
reason to consider betting now is if you think queen-high is good enough for value, but
even that’s illogical because you won’t get three streets of value out of even the biggest
fish with a high card hand, and we don’t even have an ace.

Turn: 3 ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks

See flop analysis.

River: T ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $12, BB calls $12

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Time to take this noob to valuetown. It’s not a certainty that your hand is best, but
you’re losing major value if you check behind against this guy.

3. You got a piece of the flop (bottom pair, middle pair, low top pair, a mediocre
draw):

I left this for last because I think it’s the most discussable situation. A “mediocre draw” is
any draw that you’re not willing to felt on the flop -- depending on your read of the villain
and your feel for the situation, this can mean overcards, a gutshot and an overcard, even
a hand as good as an open-ended straight draw or a flush draw.

This category is interesting because it’s the only one of the three in which there are
usually two reasonable ways to play the flop and the turn:

A) Check behind. If you have a weak pair, your hand might be good but can’t stand to
play a big pot. A check behind with a hand like middle pair is a “value check” -- it keeps
the pot small, induces bluffs, and ensures that you won’t get raised off your hand and
that it gets a chance to improve to trips or two pair. A check behind with a mediocre
draw like a gutshot and overcards is somewhat tricky, but it’s a reasonable option at
times because it guarantees that you won’t get raised off a hand that has something like
six outs, ten outs, etc.

B) Bet. Bets in spots like these are semibluffs. If you flop middle pair and elect to
continuation bet, you’re generally not betting for value. Your goal is to take down the
pot, but if that doesn’t occur, at least you’ve inflated the pot for your five outer (two outs
to trips, three outs to two pair). If you have a draw that you’re planning to fold to a raise
on the flop, you are betting and hoping the villain folds, but with the knowledge that your
hand has some outs if you get called.

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game

6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200

Preflop: J 4 ($3, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

This hand is some serious junk, but it is reasonable to open with it once in a while from
the button.

Flop: J 3 Q ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13

You flop middle pair and elect to semibluff with it. It doesn’t make much sense to bet
your jack for value at this point, because it’s going to be pretty tough to bet all three
streets with this hand unimproved and see a showdown. You bet $13 because the board
is drawy. Unfortunately, the villain calls. You might have the best hand at this point, but
that doesn’t mean the continuation bet was for value.

Turn: 3 ($41, 2 players)

196
BB checks, Hero checks

You decide not to continue the semibluff this time. If the villain can read hands, he’ll
know that you don’t have a good made hand now, but in this hand the villain is unknown.
If the river bricks and the villain makes a reasonable bet, you have little choice but to
fold.

River: Q ($41, 2 players)

BB bets $30, Hero folds

The villain could be betting missed spades or air, but it’s probably more likely that he has
a queen or a better jack than we have. I’ll try to pick villains off in these spots in the
right situation, but the standard play after semibluffing, checking through a blank turn,
and missing on the river is folding if the villain makes a river bet.

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game

6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200

Preflop: J 4 ($3, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

You have the same hand and elect to raise it again; you’re going to play the flop
differently this time, though.

Flop: J 3 Q ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks

Oh my, a very similar flop. Last time, you tried semibluffing with your flopped middle
pair, which was perfectly reasonable. This time, you’re going to check behind and try to
see a cheap showdown. I tend to be more likely to try this with dryer flops. I changed
this flop slightly from the last hand -- this flop was rainbow, the last one was two-tone --
but I’m capable of semibluffing on a dry flop and checking behind on a wet flop, etc. It’s
also better to check behind with a pair of jacks or queens than with a pair of fours or
fives, of course, because overcards are scare cards when your hand is just one pair.

Turn: 3 ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks

This is a good turn card. There’s still not much of a reason to bet, because you’re not
getting more than one street of value out of this hand. If the river doesn’t scare us and
the villain checks again, it’s time to think about betting. If the villain bets the river, you
have little choice but to call since you induced a bluff.

River: Q ($15, 2 players)

BB bets $9, Hero calls $9.

There’s a chance the villain has you beat, but I’m not folding after the way we played the
hand. There’s no reason to raise the river (save for very high level thinking against a

197
villain with whom you have a lot of history), so calling is the only option in this spot.

Read: Villain is nitty and bad. He runs at 9/5/4; when he calls a raise preflop, it usually
means he has a pocket pair. If he flops an overpair, he’s generally felting it. He likes to
check-raise continuation bets big with small overpairs, unaware that against good
players, this turns his hands into bluffs.

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game

6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200

Preflop: 4 5 ($3, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

Your hand sucks, but the BB is the perfect player to blind steal against because he’ll
usually fold his hand, and if he doesn’t, you have implied odds out the wazoo.

Flop: 6 7 2 ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks

You flop an open-ended straight draw on a rainbow board, but the villain’s range consists
mostly of overpairs and sets. Given the provided read, the villain will check-raise if you
continuation bet. PokerStove says your hand only has a 29.26 percent chance to win
against the range of JJ-66 and 22, so if you get check-raised big by the villain, you can’t
shove and you won’t have the odds to continue with the hand. You decide to check
behind and ensure that you get to see a free card, knowing that there’s a good chance of
stacking the villain you peel off a 3 or an 8. In addition, if you miss on the turn and the
villain bets, you can call the bet knowing that you generally have the implied odds to
continue.

Turn: 9 ($15, 2 players)

BB bets $12, Hero calls $12

The turn doesn’t complete your draw, but it’s a low enough card that the villain can still
have an overpair with JJ or TT (I’m assuming he would’ve reraised preflop with QQ+),
and he could have a set with 99, 77, 66, or 22. Calling is a slam dunk against this villain.

River: 9 ($39, 2 players)

BB bets $44, Hero folds

You have close to the nut low, and judging by the villain’s tendencies and his overbet,
there’s a good chance he just filled up. It’s possible the he just has an overpair, but our
read is that he won’t fold that to a shove anyway, and in this case he might even be right
to felt it if you pushed because a river push would make your line strange as hell. Just
fold this time and stack him when you have a real hand.

Read: Villain is loose preflop and likes to call raises out of position with hands like QJ, KT,
etc. He’ll fold to a continuation bet if he misses the flop, though; thus far, Poker Ace Hud
indicates that he’s folded to 13 of 16 continuation bets.

198
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200

Preflop: 4 5 ($3, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

Against a BB like this, you can probably raise profitably and then continuation bet with
any two cards. This analysis ignores the SB, of course, but for the purpose of this article,
the SB doesn’t exist.

Flop: 6 7 2 ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB folds

The flop is the same as in the last hand, but the villain is different. Whereas a check-
raise loomed against the last villain and implied odds were plentiful if you checked
behind, this villain will probably fold to a continuation bet (and a hand like KT or QJ is
about even money against our draw at this point), and it’s tough to say how much
money we’ll make if we check behind and make our hand. If the villain makes a big raise,
we probably won’t continue, but that’s an unlikely scenario. Against this villain, the play
is to continuation bet and try to take the pot down.

Read: Villain is a 44/18/5 lagfish who loves to attack weakness. He folds fairly often to
shows of strength -- in fact, he has folded to five of seven continuation bets so far -- but
you have seen him fire three barrels with air when he thinks he can steal pots.

$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game

6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200

Preflop: J 9 ($3, 6 players)

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

From the button, this hand is an auto-raise for me.

Flop: J 8 3 ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks

You flop top pair and check behind. The flop has two spades and any Q, K or A is a bad
card for you, but given your read, checking behind is the play. If the villain fires the turn,

199
you’re calling 100 percent of the time regardless of the turn card. The river is trickier if
he bets again, but it’s important to keep your read in mind.

Turn: 4 ($15, 2 players)

BB bets $14, Hero calls $14

The turn was an undercard and didn’t scare you. As expected, the villain bet out. This is
an easy call against this villain, and there’s little reason to raise.

River: K ($43, 2 players)

BB bets $23, Hero calls

The king is a bad card because you no longer have top pair. The villain leads for $23 into
a pot of $43, giving you 66:23 odds (a little less than 3:1). It’s possible that the villain
hit the river, but you reason that your hand will be good more than 25 percent of the
time against his range. This is good reasoning against a villain like this one -- if he’d bet
the pot on the river, you’d have a harder decision, but with pot odds this generous, the
river bet is a pretty easy call.

200
HAND RANGES, READS AND NOTES
READS (djoyce003)

I posted this in another thread started by Fallen Hero, but after posting my original
thoughts, i've developed a few others that I think are worthy of including, and therefore
should be included....thus I'm copying my original and adding to it. Sorry if this causes
you to read it twice.

First rule of reads - You have to apply any reads you have to the context and
history of the hand....does it make sense what the villain is doing?

Example from the other day. I pick up queens in the BB. 4 limps to me, including the SB.
I raise it 8xbb. Folds to SB (who is TAG). SB goes all in for 50bb's. Does that make
sense? Could he have possibly gone for a limp-reraise with AA or KK here with only the
BB left to act who is OOP for the rest of the hand? The answer is clearly no. He put me
on the squeeze play and assumed I had garbage. I didn't, I called, and I stacked his
completely dominated QJ. Whenever an opponent makes a play, does it make sense in
the context of the hand.

A few really valuable reads to have on villains.

Valuable read 1 - villains that overplay TPTK

One of my villain's notes is "plays TPTK like the nuts, even with it's TP of 9's. Raised and
called all in with A9 on a 7889 threeflush board."

I've used that read to stack a particular villain at least 4 times.

However, this has to done in the context of the hand. Conversely if you have a read that
a loose passive opponent can't fold top pair, and the flop comes 7 high and he'd raised
preflop with a relatively narrow raising range, you know he's not going crazy with
TPTK...you know he's got an overpair.

Valuable read 2 - Plays way too agressively when there is a flush draw on the
board.

These villains are great to flop big hands against in position because you never even
have to bet or raise because you know they don't have the draw either. Example, you
have pocket 7's in position. Villain raises, you call. Flop comes XX7 with 2 spades. Villain
pots it, you call. Turn - blank, villain pushes, you call and stack his AA that he overplayed
due to the draw-heavy board.

Valuable Read 3 - total donkey calling station

One of the best reads known to man. Do not semi-bluff these guys, do not threebet all in
with a coin flip hand because they'll call, and you are only 50/50....try to catch your hand
because they will call once you catch it too. They can't fold TP even on a straigthening
flushing board. Value bet, value bet, value bet. I called a $20 turn bet against one of
these guys into a $10 pot with a flush draw last week on a TJQK board. Rivered the flush,
push overbet for $250 and he called with the ace hi straight.

Valueable read 4 - minbets draws

201
You've all seen these guys. They minbet into you and try to draw cheap, then they go
ahead and call your big raise. I really have no idea what they are thinking...they know
they can't pay full price to draw, which is why they bet small, but then they call a raise
anyway. Punish these guys, and fold if any draws come home.

Valuable read 5 - minraises small pockets/SC's/suited aces preflop.

Some villains will typically minraise either small pockets, or sc's or suited aces
preflop...they don't usually minraise all three, but lots of villains will minraise at least one
of these. If you start getting action with a big hand on a ragged board or a board like
55K, you can generally figure they've got the trips with top kicker, or a set on a 852
board or something similar. It can save you money a lot of the time..or you can PUNISH
them on a 55K board when you've got KK because you KNOW they've got A5.

Valuable read 6 - can't read boards and tell when he's counterfeited. Also, the
converse "smart enough to know he just got counterfeited"

These villains are great. Flop comes 228, and they have 89. You bet with Jacks and they
call. Turn 9...you bet they raise, you reraise, and villain has top 2...can't fold right, even
though TT+ kills them, which you represent. They don't realize your 2 pair beats them.
This is a great read to have. Good LAGS typically realize this but still can't fold. Example
from above 982 though, you bet and get raised...think you might be behind to 98 so you
flat call. Turn comes a 2, and now villain checks.....now you've got him. Start value-
betting, he'll probably call.

Valuable read 7 - minbet-threebets monsters

These are great too because they let you get away cheap. Villain leads into you with a
minbet on a draw heavy board knowing you'll raise. You oblige, and now the threebets all
in with a set...you easily dump your hand (provided you have this read). Villain doesn't
realize he could have potted it and gotten a much bigger raise out of you but hey...his
bad play is why you are here.

Valueable read 8 - plays ALL draws agressively

A read that an opponent plays big draws agressively doesn't really help you much other
than including the big draw in his range when he's raising on a draw heavy board.

A read that an opponent will play ANY draw agressively is however. Any ragged 2 flush
board with him raising makes it easier to include the draw and not a set as his likely
holdings. Same thing on connected flops like A78....makes it easier to put him on 9T or
56 and lets you know by his action if he's hit. A good way to determine if villains got a
monster or not is to flat call his flop raise when OOP and donk into him on the turn. If he
raises you again, it's generally a big hand. If he calls he's probably got the draw and that
lets you play the river perfectly. Against a lot of these villains if you threebet the flop big
you are likely to get raised all in and are then faced with a tough decision. I generally like
to call their flop raise, and then disappoint them by donking a PSB on a blank turn, this
destroys their odds and eliminates tough decisions on your part as very few of them have
the guts to go all in at that point.

Valuable Read 10 - makes weak C-bets with whiffed hands, makes big c-bets
with hands that connected

These villains are really easy to float against with nothing, or punish with big hands. If a
villain makes a weak c-bet into me I'll generally raise if I think he'll fold right on the flop,
or wait until the turn to raise as that's always more scary and almost always gets a fold.

202
Conversely, if the villain makes a PSB and I have nothing, I know I can safely fold and
won't try to float because I know he's got a hand. This is why it's so critical that you
always make your cbets a standard size.

Valuable read 11 - Does not consider pot size when determining the strength of
a bet

Some villains associate the size of the bet in relation to the stakes as a strong bet, rather
than the size of the bet in relation to the pot. For example...some villains think their $10
bet into a $50 pot is strong because it's a big bet for $50NL. We as a group typically
consider that a weak bet...but if the villain doesn't, beware.

Valuable Read 12 - villain ALWAYS raises in the BB if it's a headsup blind battle
and the SB completes.

This read makes you money in a number of ways. First you know not to complete with
hands you want to play OOP to a raise, because you know you'll get one. And second you
KNOW he's raising so you limp with TT+ and punish him when he does. After enough of
these you can start limping and not expect a raise.

Valuable read 13 - Villain reraises light and flatcalls with truly big hands.

I found a TAG villain that religously reraises with marginal hands (AJ for example) but
NEVER reraises with AA/KK. This makes him easy to play against because if he reraises
you, you know your AK is good on an a K hi flop, because AA isn't in his reraise range.

Valuable Read 14 - Calls pot-size bets on draws on the flop AND turn, then
either goes for the checkraise when it hits (or donk bets it, depends on villain)

Lots of villains (myself included) will call smallish PSB's on the flop with draws. Not as
many will call on the turn. The ones that will call large turn bets are truly great buddies
for life and worth following around. When you get called by one of these guys on the flop
on a draw heavy board. You must make a PS turn bet, screw pot control, punish these
donkies. Conversely, slow way down when the draw hits and consider folding. The other
great thing about these guys if that they'll almost always go for a checkraise when they
complete their draw, disappoint them by not letting them get the checkraise in.

Marginal but sometimes valuable timing tells

Assuming a villain normally acts in a certain period of time, sometimes something

outside of that normal range can give you a tell. The most common one is the delayed
call or bet. If a villain raised on the flop and then a flush card falls, and that villain takes
an inordinately long period to act after the card hits, it's almost a certainty that he hit the
flush. I can't tell you how many times I've seen this and it's been the flush. They are
thinking that you'll associate their long thought period with weakness, but in reality it's
strength. I generally insta-fold TP with this read and i'm almost always right. This read is
subject to a villain that is only single-tabling though. If it's against a multi-tabling tag it's
not as reliable as he could be acting on another table, etc.

Other Ramblings - Absent reads I'm typically very reluctant to call large river bets with
good, but not unbeatable hands. I've gotten burned by this lately with things like K high
flushes facing pushes and losing to the nut flush, things like that. Villains typically just
don't bet rivers huge without the nuts or near nuts. Also beware of the full pot size bet or
slight overbet if you checked the turn behind after a draw hit. This almost always
signifies a whiffed turn-checkraise that the villain is trying to make up for. If a villain is
capable of bluffing the river with missed draws and things of that nature, then calling is

203
standard, but I have to have a read to make me do this and it has to be a very good
read.

204
HAND READING / BET SIZING (carnivalhobo)

Bet sizing and hand ranges in Small Stakes NL

First I’d like to just say how much I’ve learned about poker from this forum and hope to
be able to give something back to the group of people and community that has helped
me makes money and exercise my brain. I’ve only really been around about 8 months
and didn’t play seriously for many of those first months, but after gradually spending
more time on 2p2 and getting the courage to post here I’ve developed into a poker
player (I have the FTP jersey to prove it !). I didn’t write a Pooh-Bah post for several
reasons, mostly I am lazy. At the request of lorez I am discussing hand reading and bet
sizing, as I feel they go hand in hand. I am currently playing 200NL with occasional shots
at 400, but I’ll try to keep this basic enough for all levels of uNL and up.

Practice, practice, practice. Work on developing your reads, put people on hands all the
time. When you are watching a high stakes game, or just in between hands at other
tables, actively attempt to put people on hands. I will frequently say out loud the hand I
think my opponent has, this creates accountability. Secondly, you have to put faith in
your reads. If you put your opponent on a draw and then he makes a PSB on the river,
make the call. As soon as these decisions start influencing your bankroll you suddenly
become much more excited about the proposition of being right about what your
opponent has.

What you can do at the table. Make notes, and lots of them. Whenever you see someone
play a hand differently than their PT stats or perception of them as a player would lead
you to believe, make a note. Some samples: “donkbet with air”, “lead into pfr and bet 3
streets with TPWK”, “bluff raise river with missed draw”. But I’m getting ahead of myself
here. What basic elements of pt stats should you be looking at when deciding hand
ranges for opponents?

VPIP
This is the most basic, if your opponent has a vpip under 20 he just isn’t going to have
94 if he limps behind limpers or cold calls a raise. Most likely he is limping with suited
connectors, Axs, and small-medium pocket pairs.

PFR
This one is pretty clear too, if a x/6/x player raises from UTG in a 9 handed game, he
isn’t going to have 33 or AT, these shouldn’t be included in his hand range later.

AF
Now this is where it gets more complicated, people with low AF (total post flop), say
lower than 2, aren’t often betting out with draws, or making elaborate semi-bluffs. When
a passive player raises the turn your TPTK is often no good (see: Baluga Theorem).
Similarly these players aren’t going to bluff missed draws as often so if there was a FD
on the flop, its not wise to assume that a missed draw is a big part of villain’s range
when he pots the river.

This has all been pretty vague, and is intended as more of a primer for some of the uNL
people and maybe some of the limit converts. A lot of hand reading is based on what I
would call feel. Sometimes you just know when a guy is leading into you with a flopped
set and you can make a great fold with an overpair. One of the biggest cues I use to read
hands online is bet sizing.

Preflop
The small raise from EP: A typical LP player opens in EP for just over the minimum. This

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is nearly always a monster.
Min-raises: This is something I make notes on to narrow a range down, but as far as I
can tell, a good range for minraises preflop is 22-99, A2s-A9s, 34s-JTs, suited one gaps,
and then it kind of breaks down based on individuals. These are “pot sweeteners” just
juicing up the size of the pot with a hand they want to play. Use this to your advantage
and see a flop too if your hand is reasonable, or if it’s a good hand, then go ahead and
re-raise them and you’ll often find yourself winning the pot preflop.
The 8xbb+raise: This is a scared monster, something like QQ or JJ where the villain
doesn’t want to play postflop, some will pull this maneuver with KK, AA, and even AK
hoping to take it down then, or build a big pot so they don’t have to worry about folding.
Use the 5/10 rule judiciously, and don’t try to 3bet these guys light, they aren’t going
anywhere.
Our raises: As you can see, a simply pfr size helps us narrow down our opponents hand
range, in some cases significantly. This is precisely why we use the 4xBB +1/limper
formula to make preflop raises (a PSR is fine too, especially as you get to .5/1 and 1/2).
3 bets: The lower the level the tighter our opponents are here, at 25nl (I never played
10, so I don’t feel comfortable making generalizations) most villains aren’t 3betting
without QQ+, and maybe AK. As you move up, the average player’s range widens to
something like TT+ AQ+ at some of the more aggressive 200nl 6max games. Use this to
your advantage. At the uNL levels, see a flop with a PP these guys cant fold aces ever, so
stack them with every set, but be weary and don’t put more bets in postflop “just to
make sure”. No set, no bet is the way to go here. As you move up, start 3betting with a
wider range yourself, I think in shorthanded games especially, you should be more
aggressive than the average player preflop, For example, at 50nl when most people
aren’t yet 3betting without the goods, try a resteal the next time that tag that has a
name like BustoYOU tries to steal your blind, liberating isn’t it?

Flop
We are finally here, some community cards to work with. Now we get more information
about our opponent’s hand. I’ll deal with mainly raised pots in which we are the
aggressor, as this is the most common spot for a 2p2 TAG to be in.

Donkbets: This is when a guy calls your pfr OOP and the leads into you on the flop. In
general this means a weak made hand or a draw. The more taggy your opponent the
more often they will be leading sets and big draws they want to b/3bai with. If a typical
player leads into you on a Q72r flop and you have AQ, control the pot and just call. If the
flop is QsTs8o then consider raising to price out a draw. If you hold an overpair and a
TAG leads into you on a dry flop, call and re-evaluate the turn. If the flop is draw heavy
you can either raise, or let a blank roll off and bomb the turn. If you see someone lead
into you with a hand like TPTK or another odd hand, then make a note.

Minbets: In general treat these as checks, if you were planning to check behind, then
just call. If you were going to make a cbet, make a good sized raise. These hands tend to
be even weaker than those by people who make larger donkbets including small PPs and
naked draws.

I could go on and talk about every type of betting situation and what I think of various
betsizes, but I’d rather look at some examples of where hand reading comes into play.

The villain in the following hand is 16/8/24, yes 24 aggression, with a 15% WtSD
(sample size is 300 hands). He had been playing solid aggressive poker, and I feel like he
can fold due to his low WtSD. I decide to call with AQ preflop because I have position and
I also suspect that he is raising limpers from LP with a wide range. On the flop I have 2
overs and a gutshot to the nuts. He makes a standard, if not a bit small, cbet I decide to
call with position looking to bluff the turn or make the best hand. I suspect that he will
fire a second barrel fairly liberally as his turn AF is 6. The turn is a total blank and he
fires again. Now here is where the hand reading comes into play. Would he fire again

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here with a huge hand like 3 Jacks? Unlikely, he would likely go for a c/r. Also I suspect
he is capable of making a laydown and so a hand like AA will often get mucked if I push.
The reason I can assume this is my image, over the 100 hands I played at this table I
had been quite tight, playing 16/7.5/2 with a WtSD of only 5.8%. With this type of image
I think his calling range is on the order of JT, TT, JJ, sometimes QQ+. Against this range
I am still drawing live, but most importantly, the portion of his range with which he bets
(something like 88+, AT+ KQ, QJ, JT, and some other random aces) I have a lot of FE
against.

Full Tilt Poker

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4

Stack sizes:
CO: $473
Hero: $420

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with Q A

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO raises to $20, Hero calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 3 T J ($50, 2 players)

CO bets $28, Hero calls.

Turn: 5 ($106, 2 players)

CO bets $75, Hero raises all-in $372

This next hand took place in an aggressive shorthanded game, with lots of light preflop
raising. Villain is a typical aggTag and plays about 23/20/3. My image is similar at
22/18/3. I played this hand with him earlier which indicates his range preflop is widened
as well as some hint to what his flop check means.
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
Hero: $248
BB: $1070.25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 4 4

UTG folds, Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, BB raises to $21, Hero calls.

Flop: J 5 7 ($43, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 5 ($43, 2 players)

BB bets $30, Hero calls.

River: 9 ($103, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks.

Results:
Final pot: $103
He had K Q and MHIG

Now, on to the hand: I put his preflop range at AT+, KJ+, 22+, and some sc’s. I would
have likely folded to a cbet on this board, but he checks. I can’t stand a check raise and
would likely check here with most hands (especially a set). Because of the previous hand,
I start to discount the chance of him having a set or AK here, although it’s certainly a

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possibility. I decide to make a move on a decent turn card and check behind. The turn is
another low blank and he makes a bet, I go with my plan and make it 122 to go, this
sets me up for a potsized river push which is the betsizing id use with the nuts or a set
here. He calls and I start to wonder what his hand is, could he actually have AK? He
checks it to me on a fairly blank river card. After he checks I immediately remove a set
from his range, he would never play it that slow (he plays big hands fast like most 2p2
style tags). I think his range is something like JJ, QQ, AA, AK. Of this range I think they
all fold to a river bet. The only hand of those I can see looking me up is AA, and I cant
win by checking. Now, a betsize. How much would I bet here with a set? I make a
roughly 2/3 pot bet and this way I save some money when he has played a big hand
sneakily, and I think 220 and a push are the same when it comes to folding out other
hands.

Full Tilt Poker

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2

Stack sizes:
Hero: $475.90
BB: $835.40

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with Q J

UTG calls, Hero raises to $9, 3 folds, BB raises to $27, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 4 2 K ($57, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 3 ($57, 2 players)

BB bets $40, Hero raises to $122, BB calls.

River: T ($301, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $220

This is getting to be longer than a Pokey post, which means about 3 people are actually
going to read it. Hopefully it was helpful.

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AN UNBELIEVABLY LONG GUIDE TO HAND READING
(Pokey)

So you've got bottom set on a three-flush board and your opponent just check-raised
you all-in. What do you do? Well, the first thing you do is you put your opponent on a
hand.

Hand reading is simultaneously the most important and the most difficult thing that a
poker player does. Some of the best poker players in the world ignore many (or all!) of
those other "rules" in poker, have deadly-accurate hand reading skills, and make
mountains of cash for their troubles. Other players are exquisitely good at all the
fundamentals but stink at hand reading and therefore struggle to consistently beat
$50NL.

Unfortunately, there is no "magic formula" for hand reading; after all, your opponents
work very hard to AVOID letting you know the cards in their hands. However, while there
is a great deal of artistry in hand reading, the basics are describable. After some thought
I came up with these Five Commandments of Hand Reading (I had ten, but one of the
tablets broke when EMC dropped it -- sorry, blame the mod) to get you started.

1. Know thy numbers.

So you know that your opponent who just limped has a VPIP of 30%; what does 30%
really MEAN? We know it's loose, but are you really aware of what "30% of all hands
dealt" actually looks like? Here are some probabilities of getting a hand in a particular
preflop range:

Super-premiums: AA, KK, QQ, AK. Total probability: 2.6%.

Premiums: AA-TT, AK, AQ, KQ. Total probability: 5.9%.
Any pocket pair: AA-22. Total probability: 5.9%.
Any two broadway: Two cards, both T+, including pairs. Total probability: 14.3%.
Any suited ace: A2s-AKs. Total probability: 3.6%.
Unsuited ace: A2o-AKo. Total probability: 10.9%.
"Maximum suited connectors": JTs-54s. Total probability: 2.1%.
Any ace: A2o+, A2s+, AA. Total probability: 14.9%.
Any two suited: literally. Total probability: 23.5%.
Any two connectors: 32s-AKs, 32o-AKo. Total probability: 14.5%.

To give you a VERY broad feel for what different percentages translate into, here are
some potential example ranges:

5% = "pairs 77+, AK, AQs" or "pairs 99+, AK, AQ."

10% = "pairs 66+, AK, AQ, suited aces, KQs, QJs"
15% = "any pair, AK, AQ, KQ, suited connectors 54+, any suited ace"
20% = "any pair, any two broadway, any suited ace"
25% = "any pair, any suited broadway, any ace, any suited connectors 54s+, KQo"
30% = "any pair, any ace, any suited king, any suited broadway, any suited connectors
54s+, KTo+, QJo" or "any pair, any ace, any suited king, any broadway"
40% = "any pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, any suited connectors 32s+"
50% = "any pair, any two suited cards, any ace, any two broadway, K5o+"

Again, remember to use the relevant range: a player who is 65/10 is looser than the
50% range when he limps but has a rather tight range if he actually raises. Also realize
that some players who are loose and passive will raise with SECOND-best hands like 88-

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JJ, AJ, KQ, and 54s-JTs, but NOT the ultra-premiums like QQ+, AK, and AQ -- those they
will slowplay to disguise their hands. Watch these folks at showdown to try and figure out
how they play their really big hands.

Postflop aggression numbers also reveal much about a player. When a player with an
average aggression of 8 raises preflop and then checks to you, suspect a trap: this is
very often a strong hand that's going for a check-raise. When you get that same preflop
bet and flop check from a player whose average aggression is 1.3, that's more likely to
be a player who missed and is giving up. When that same play comes from someone with
a postflop aggression of 0.4, you gain no information from the check -- checking is just
what this player does. Mentally split players into three groups -- high aggression,
medium aggression, and low aggression -- and then adjust accordingly. Be VERY afraid
when a player is playing out of character: the passive postflop player who leads and
raises almost always has a monster, and you can fold without a worry. The ultramaniac
who check/calls two streets also has a monster, and is waiting to beat your brains out.
Don't fall for it. All of this leads us to our second commandment:

2. Know thy enemy.

A leopard never changes its spots, especially at uNL stakes. Together, the HUD trinity
(VPIP, PFR, and average aggression) tell us much about a player. Loose players play
loose; tight players play tight. Aggressive players play aggressively and passive players
play passively. Categorize your opponents on three separate measures:

Preflop looseness: a loose preflop player has a VPIP over 40% (I made up the number,
but you get the general idea). These guys have crap preflop, and any hand you're willing
to play is beating their range. Beware of these folks postflop, however -- there's no flop
that definitely missed your enemy. Be prepared to play with caution when you don't have
a monster. That's not to say you should be check-calling; rather, expect to be ahead and
bet consistently with your made hands, but keep the bets small and try for pot control.
Alternatively, raise light and raise strong preflop while your hand dominates your
opponent's range. His mistake is playing too many hands -- exploit this mistake by
hammering him preflop while you're way ahead.

On the other hand, a tight preflop player has a VPIP under 20%. These folks won't enter
into a hand unless they've got something worth pursuing. They aren't really making a
major mistake preflop, and the only way you can really take advantage of this
characteristic is by stealing their blinds remorselessly (though you'll have to instafold if
they catch you stealing and you don't have an honest hand).

Preflop aggresssion: a passive preflop player has a PFR under a quarter of their VPIP.
That means that this is a floating scale: while 10% PFR is passive for a player who has a
VPIP of 55%, it is aggressive for a player who has a VPIP of 15%. Alternatively, an
aggressive preflop player will have a PFR over half of their VPIP. When we're trying to
decide a player's preflop holding, we should use their VPIP and their PFR to come to a
conclusion. Say a player has a VPIP of 40% and a PFR of 20% and they limp in front of
you. What sort of holdings do you expect them to have? Well, we know the player is
willing to play with 40% of his hands; our sample range for this looked something like
"any pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway, any suited connectors 32s+." But we
can already refine this range some more: we know that with 20% of those hands, villain
would have raised, and here he didn't. If we assume that villain raises with his top 20%,
our sample range for that looks something like "any pair, any two broadway, any suited
ace." So take THOSE hands out of his current range: just like you discount 72o when a
nit is in the hand, you discount QQ when a maniac limps. A likely range here is going to
be the difference between the two ranges, or "any unsuited ace, K9s or worse, K9o or
worse, T9s or worse." That's a much easier range to play against. Be sure to watch this

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opponent's showdown hands, however -- you'd really like to know if your assumption
about him raising the top 20% of his range is correct or not. If you have a tricky
opponent who raises his middle 20% and limps the top 10% and bottom 10%, your
range will be significantly wrong, and you'll be in a good deal of trouble with your hand
reading. One huge word of warning: people often look at a player's VPIP and conclude
that the player is a loose idiot. Then they call his raise and are shocked when they find
out at showdown that he had rockets. Remember, if you are raised preflop by a 65/5, he
has roughly the same hand range as when you're raised by a 12/5. Don't mistake his
typical preflop looseness with a wide range when he raises....

Postflop aggression: after the flop, a new game begins. People often make the mistake
of assuming that a tight preflop player is tight postflop, or that an aggressive preflop
player is aggressive postflop. This can only be discovered by observation. I will tell you
that every combination of preflop and postflop playstyles is possible, and none are
terribly uncommon. The true TA/TA (tight-aggressive preflop, tight-aggressive postflop)
and LP/LP (calling station pre and post) is only one form of opponent. Another very
common player is the TA/LA: always aggressive and solidly tight preflop, this opponent
plays hands so infrequently that when he finds something -- ANYTHING -- that he's
willing to play preflop he cannot bring himself to let it go. He turns into a maniac
postflop, relying on folding equity and a better starting hand range to win money.
Another common player is the TP/TA, who goes from nit preflop to aggro-monkey
postflop. If they miss, they're out of the hand, but if they hit the hand they're going to
hammer every street and try to get all-in by the showdown. Less common at uNL, but
increasingly common at higher levels (and deadly-dangerous when they do it right) is the
LP/TA: this player is a total calling station idiot preflop. You'll often see preflop numbers
of 75/11 or 68/6 for these folks. Don't fall for it! It's a ruse. These folks are splashing
around in as many pots as they can as cheaply as they can, and then postflop they play
POKER. They'll be folding a tremendous fraction of the time on the flop, escaping for 1
BB, but when they hit it will be with something sneaky-as-hell and solid-solid-solid. They
then go into aggro mode, betting incredibly hard and relying on unobservant TAGs to call
them down lighter because "hey, this idiot is 72/7, my TP3K dominates his range." They
stack more TAGs than you and I could ever hope to, because their image gets them mad
phat postflop action. So the rule is: postflop is a new game; expect people to play a
different style postflop from preflop, and try to quickly figure out BOTH of these styles.

Now, once we're on the flop and beyond we need to use average aggression and postflop
tightness to decide what a player's holdings are, refining our original range based on
their preflop play. This leads us to the third commandment:

3. Know thy board.

Flops have different "textures," and those textures can be much more or much less
scary, depending on your holdings and your opponent's range. More importantly,
different people respond in different ways to different board textures. On a draw-heavy
board, if a loose and aggressive player is check-calling you can expect him to have the
near-nuts, but if a loose and passive player is check-calling you can expect him to
have ... well, any damn thing. What affects the texture of a board? Well, let's start with
the flop.

Suitedness: flops can come "rainbow" (three different suits), "two-suited" (two of one
suit and one of another), or "monochrome" (all three cards in the same suit). The more
"suited" a flop is, the bigger the hand most opponents will need to call. However, note
that many hyperaggressive opponents will be more likely to bet out, check-raise, or
"float" (smooth-call on the flop with the intent of taking the pot on the turn) with either a
pure bluff or a semi-bluff (draw) on these types of boards. If you are first to act, you can
often steal these pots for a reasonably small (2/3rds-pot) bet; if you are called, beware

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of the flush draw! One small bit of math: let's say that the flop comes with three spades
and you have none in your hand. The odds that your single opponent flopped a made
flush are 3.3% and the odds that he flopped a flush DRAW are 15.8%. If you've hit a
solid hand (say, TPTK) DO NOT PANIC AND START CALLING! Bet out and protect against
the draw that is 4.75 times more likely than the made flush that has you killed. Besides,
if your opponent actually has a second-best hand, he'll be more likely to pay off a bet on
a monochrome flop than he will to pay off a bet when the turn has FOUR spades
(assuming he doesn't have one). Bet while your hand is best and charge him well to try
and outdraw you. Incidentally, if your board has three spades and you have one in your
hand, the odds that your opponent has two spades drops to 2.6% and the odds that he
has one spade drops to 14.4%, so the odds that your opponent is drawing to a flush are
now 5.6 times higher than the odds that he flopped the monster. Bet and protect!

Connectedness: here we're talking about how many cards to a straight the board has.
A monochrome flop of J-T-9 is MUCH more dangerous than a monochrome flop of J-7-2.
Always be aware of straight draws -- they're a gold-mine to the savvy poker player
because so many people miss them. When the flop comes A-K-Q, the player holding JTs
just stacked the preflop raiser holding AK. When the board is connected, you need to
beware of two separate possibilities: your opponent might have two pair and your
opponent might have an open-ended straight draw. Often, two pair is the scarier event,
because your weak-but-made hand is often drawing very thin against it. A straight draw
can become an almost unbeatable monster, but it has to GET there first. Two pair is
already there. At small stakes games, many players will play very passively with a draw,
check/calling in the hopes of improving, but they will play aggressively with two pair.
Your more aggressive opponents will bet BOTH hands strongly. When someone plays
back at you on a fairly connected board, you need to decide if they're likely drawing or if
instead they've flopped some powerhouse hand. Then you'll proceed based on the
strength of your hand in relation to the range you think is likely for your opponent. Much
like a suited board, a connected board can often be used as a powerful bluffing or
semibluffing tool. Say your 30/11/3 opponent raises preflop from MP and you call in
position with 33. Heads-up, the flop comes 7-6-5. This is a REALLY good flop for attack
aggressively: considering your opponent's stats, the raise makes overcards much more
likely than usual, so the odds that this flop has completely missed your opponent are
higher than usual. A flop raise or a flop float can prove extremely valuable to you. In this
analysis I'm completely ignoring your inside straight draw -- that's virtually worthless
since it's highly unlikely to happen and also highly unlikely to get paid in any significant
way by your opponent while still being the best hand. No, I'm saying that this flop is a
good one for you because it is unlikely to have improved your opponent in any
meaningful way. Pressing back hard should win you this pot quite often WITHOUT getting
to a showdown.

High Card Value: your opponents love playing high cards. Sure, you've outgrown calling
raises with KJo and A9o (you HAVE outgrown that, right?) but they haven't. Playing these
easily-dominated hands will prove very expensive for your inattentive opponents, but
realize this general rule: a flop that is high-card heavy is much more likely to have
connected with your opposition than a flop that is high-card light. If an ace hits the board
in a multi-way pot and I don't have AT LEAST AQ, I'm usually done with the hand.
Opponents love nothing more than playing aces, and when those aces hit the board your
opponents will hang on to their aces like they were made out of solid gold. Worse yet, a
pair of aces with a J-or-worse kicker is going to be in oodles of trouble unless that kicker
connects, too. Think about this:

say you have AJ on an ace-high board. The next highest board card is a T. If one other
player has an ace, what are the odds that his hand beats yours? Well, AK and AQ
obviously have you outkicked, and the unlikely AA has you decimated.

However, there are four OTHER aces that beat you -- the ones that have made two pair.

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That means you're behind about as often as you're ahead in this situation, and that's
even assuming that your opponent "only" has an ace! You throw in the other random
two-pair and set hands and your hand will win at showdown less than half the time.
Worse yet, most opponents will get the message and fold their aces with weak kickers,
but they're unlikely to fold any hand that beats you. The odds are that if you somehow
create a big pot, you're even MORE likely to be behind. In short, proceed with great
caution on ace-high boards, even if you have an ace. King high boards are pretty
dangerous, too, because the looser opponents will play many kings, especially suited
ones. Q's and J's are less scary as a player's high card, but VERY dangerous as a player's
LOW card. Someone willing to play KJo preflop is virtually never going to fold that hand
on a J-high flop.

Recognize that the odds that your opponent has missed the board are highest on low-
card boards, and much lower when the board has high cards. This is especially true if the
board has more than ONE high card. One major exception to this rule: if you RAISED
preflop, don't give up when the flop comes with a high card, especially if that high card is
an ace.

This is a fantastic chance to steal the pot. Statistically speaking, virtually any opponent
you could face has a less-than-50% chance of having an ace in this situation, but if you
bet the flop they will assume you DO have one. A standard continuation bet will win the
pot a surprisingly large fraction of the time. If they play back, fold and move on to the
next hand.

Paired Boards: usually, a paired board is a cause for celebration. Why? Because with an
unpaired board there are nine separate cards in the unseen deck that could give an
opponent a pair. However, with a PAIRED board, that number falls to only FIVE cards. In
other words, it's now almost 50% less likely that an opponent has made a hand good
enough to want to continue. You should use this against them if it is reasonable for you
to do so. Mind you, if you limped preflop and the board is AAK, you can usually check-
fold, because your opponent is not going to believe that you have the goods.

However, if you raised preflop and the board comes 884 a bet in a heads-up pot is
virtually MANDATORY: your opponent will realize he's missed, assume you have a pocket
pair, and fold even more often than he would fold to a typical continuation bet. Paired
boards are perfect for continuing preflop aggression. Also, realize that most aggressive
players know this, so if you happen to be in a pot that someone else raised, the flop
comes paired and you've got a sneaky monster, consider a slowplay like a flop check-
raise or even a "check/call flop, check/raise turn." Your aggressive targets will fire off a
continuation bet quite often, and you can then "snap off a bluff" and win a bigger pot
than you otherwise would. Obviously, this will be opponent-specific, but keep your eyes
peeled for such opportunities.

On the turn and river, similar issues with connectedness, suitedness, high card value,
and board pairs will continue to pertain, and will define the "texture" of the board. As a
general rule, a tight opponent will continue on "wet" (highly coordinated) boards when he
has a strong hand or a strong draw, but a loose opponent may continue with as little as
top pair. An aggressive opponent can bet "wet" boards with a draw, a "combination
draw" (straight and flush), or a pair+draw, and may even bet these boards on a pure
bluff. A passive opponent betting into a "wet" board usually has the goods -- these folks
rarely bet their draws. Now, to start to put this all together, let's move on to the next
rule:

4. Know thy hand history.

Here we're discussing how this particular hand has played out: who bet when and how

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much? Start looking for betting patterns, as different people will have different patterns.
A few general issues:

Check-raises: when an opponent check-raises, he is sending the message that his hand
is unusually powerful. He knows you are betting and he doesn't care. What's more, he
was confident enough to risk your checking behind in his quest to get more money in the
pot. These types of bets will usually mean one of three things: either your opponent was
monsterously strong and slowplayed an earlier street, or the last card just helped your
opponent in some way, or he is bluffing in a situation where he thinks he can scare you
off your hand. As a general rule, trust check-raises from passive players. Completely. If
you don't have a sneaky MONSTER (and I mean MONSTER with a capital *everything*)
you should be folding to this raise. People often ask "can I ever escape from pocket
aces?" This would be one situation where escaping would be easy. Another general rule is
that the more aggressive a player is, the more likely a check-raise is a bluff. I would say
that until an opponent has an aggression factor of at least 2 you shouldn't worry much
about a check-raise semi-bluff, and until he has an aggression factor of at least 4 you
shouldn't worry much about a check-raise bluff. People are very quick to put a player on
a bluff when he check-raises; I believe this event is much rarer than most people think.
One caveat to this: check-raises on the flop are far more likely to be bluffs or weak
hands than check-raises on ANY other street. On the flop, people will often take a check-
raise line against a frequent c-bettor, even with hands like "bottom pair, no kicker"
because they know that their opponent will frequently have pure air. So: a check-raise
on the flop usually means "I can beat ace-high," but a check-raise on a later street
usually means "I can beat YOU."

Check-calls: this play is highly player-specific. Against a passive calling station this
means "I have two cards. Look! Spades are pretty. I like pie." Against a tight and
moderately aggressive player this often means "I'm on a draw." Against a highly
aggressive player this often means "I have a monster and I'm going to let you bet
yourself to death." Check-calls are precursors to check-raises on later streets from very
aggressive players; from very passive players, they just precede more check-calls.

Donkbets: a "donkbet" is when someone who does NOT have the betting lead makes an
unexpected bet. For instance, if a player called your preflop raise but then leads into you
on the flop, that would be a donkbet. Similarly, if a player calls your flop bet but then
leads on the turn, that would also be a donkbet. At these stages, a donkbet should be
interpreted as saying "that card helped me." The more passive your opponent, the more
straightforward this interpretation is. When a passive player comes alive on a third
straight card, or a fourth flush card, or a pairing of the board, or some odd-looking
random card, you should expect that the card has helped his hand out and he is now
value-betting. Of course, how strong his hand is remains to be seen, but the card has
improved him. Don't expect that this means he has the nuts: I've seen passive players
wake up and bet the fourth heart...because it gave them two pair. On the other hand,
very aggressive players love to donkbet on scare cards. This is a cheaper bluff than a
check-raise but it works just as often at these levels, and many aggressive players will
take advantage of a turn ace or a third/fourth club, or a board pair to try and steal the
pot. Be aware of this.

Unexpected checks: a player who has been betting steadily in the hand suddenly starts
to check. What does this mean? Well, one obvious interpretation is that he has been
bluffing and has now given up on the hand. Most players are straightforward enough that
this will be the case. Against a medium-aggressive opponent, this will often be a good
opportunity to bet with any two cards, since your folding equity will be through-the-roof.
Another common situation is that a player flops a decent hand -- say top pair on a T-high
board -- and then slows way down when the turn brings a K. They are worried about the
overpair, and so have stopped betting. That does not necessarily mean they are ready to
fold; some players will go from betting/raising to check/calling all the way to showdown.

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However, when an aggressive player stops being aggressive, that's usually a sign that
your situation is not as dire as you thought it was. Beware of the hyperaggressive
opponent who unexpectedly checks, ESPECIALLY if he check/calls a scare card. For some
reason, these players have taken the "strong = weak, weak = strong" philosophy to
heart, and will often bet with little or nothing but immediately slowplay the moment they
get a hand. Watch your opponents carefully to see if the turn check usually means they
are giving up or if it usually means they are trapping you.

Bet-check-bet: a strange-looking but rather common three-street line is "bet the flop,
check behind on the turn, bet the river," where the opponent has check/called the whole
way. Against an aggressive opponent, this river bet is often what we call a "desperation
bluff." The hand has no showdown value so the villain bets in the hopes that you will fold
the best hand. Since you've shown little or no strength the whole hand through, they feel
they have strong folding equity (which is true), and they are now attacking in a last-ditch
effort to scoop up the pot. However, you need to be aware of what the board looked like.
Another common reasoning behind this line is that the flop bet was with nothing, the turn
gave the opponent a draw, and the river either made the draw or missed. If an obvious
draw arrived on the end, you would really need to know more about your opponent
before you knew if this was a bluff or not. Calling against some opponents will be
extremely +EV even with bottom pair; against other opponents it will be -EV with
anything short of a powerhouse. Again, watch your opponents and take notes on what
their lines mean.

Our fifth and final commandment ties in to everything we've already discussed:

5. Know thy image.

"Image" is how the other players at the table perceive YOU. Against some opponents,
this will be the very most important commandment. Against others, it will not matter at
all. It all depends on how attentive your particular opponent is. How do we start to figure
out our image?

Only worry about image with second-level thinkers. For some of you, this is your
first segue into third-level thinking. First-level thinking is asking, "what is my hand?"
Second-level thinking is asking, "what is my opponent's hand?" Third-level thinking is
asking, "what does my opponent think my hand is?" Obviously third-level thinking is
irrelevant against a first-level thinker. However, most opponents will at least make some
token effort to guess your hand, so against your better opponents understanding your
image will be important. When you have a complete idiot who never looks past his own
hand while playing the game, don't worry about image -- you'll just be wasting your time
and effort.

Your cards only affect your image when you SHOW them. In the last five straight
hands you've had AA, KQ (flopped trips), QQ, JT (flopped straight), and 55 (flopped set).
You won all five hands before showdown, and you never show your hands without being
forced to do so. Recognize that your table image is now absolute CRAP. Yes, you had the
goods. Sure, your hands were actually powerhouses. Of course, your starting hand
selection is tight. None of that matters. All your opponents have seen is you betting and
raising every hand. They doubt you, and they're very quickly going to get sick of your
crap and start looking you up. This is NOT the time to get cute with QJs or 33 -- this is
the time to play squeaky-clean poker as tight as you know how. Alternatively, if each of
those five went to showdown and you displayed to the table your powerhouse winners,
your folding equity will be HIGHER than usual, because people will begin to believe that
you don't get involved with a hand unless you've got the goods. Be aware of this.

Recent history matters more than ancient history. Very few of your opponents

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actually have Poker Tracker. As a result, their image of you will be determined by their
own personal observations. Most people have a relatively short memory, so concentrate
most on your actions in the last two orbits. If your table image has fallen apart and your
bluffs have gotten picked off several times in a row, tighten up and fold for the next two
orbits -- in that short period of time you will rebuild most or all of your table image and
you can then go back to doing your nasty deeds. Conversely, if you've been at the table
for three hours playing a 12/8 game but you've gotten involved in 10 of the last 12
hands, people will think of you as a maniac, and play back at you with all sorts of crap.
It's the recent history that counts, so remember how your last two orbits looked at the
table.

Personal history matters more than table history. A player may not remember that
you bluffed Seat 3 off his hand five times in a row, but he WILL remember that you
bluffed HIM off his hand once an hour and a half ago. People have much longer memories
for hands that involved them personally. If you stole a player's big blind three times in
the last four orbits, he's going to know that, and he's going to play back at you with any
reasonably strong hand. Your folding equity on a steal will be particularly low against
HIM, but won't be low at all against the other players at the table.

Opponents will usually assume that your lines always mean the same thing. If
you bet 3/4ths pot on a river scare card with the nut flush, then the next time you are in
a pot against that opponent and the river comes with a three-flush (not yours), bet
3/4ths pot! Your folding equity will be tremendous. Alternatively, if the flush card DID
help you, bet a DIFFERENT amount -- push all your chips in, or bet 1/2 pot, or do
something else. When you want a call, don't do what you did the last time he saw you
with the nuts. When you want a fold, do exactly what you did the last time he saw you
with the nuts. People will remember these things.

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Taking Notes & Making Reads Article (I) (FreakDaddy)

I haven't posted any articles on here since my Continuation Bet article quite some time
ago, so I thought I'd share another with you, since the others have had such popular
responses. As always, if you have any comments or suggestions, don't be shy. Hope you
enjoy.

Playing good poker is more than just playing your cards and perhaps your opponent’s
cards. It’s really about playing the opponent you’re up against. What that means is that
while the cards are important, you can win a lot more pots if you pay attention to how
your opponent plays the game. When you pay attention by taking good notes, you can
apply this information to sometimes win when you don’t have the best hand. In some
cases this information can also be used to get away from a good but obvious second-best
hand, push a marginal hand, or make a bold bluff that you wouldn’t normally make
against most opponents.

In this three-part article we’ll focus on what kind of notes to take on your opponents and
how to apply these notes in order to make good reads on your opponents. The reads you
make influence the action you should take on your hand. We’ll discuss how your reads
translate into making the best play in order to maximize the value of your hand and
minimize your losses.

Types of Notes to Take

One of the biggest advantages of playing online for the good poker player is the amount
of data and notes you can take on an opponent seemingly instantly. Most sites offer an
area where you can click on an opponent’s name and type in some notes about that
player. It’s not quite as easy to do in live play, and when you do this in live play people
know that you are aware of that hand and how it was played. In online play, no one
knows if you’re watching TV or intently watching every hand and making pages of notes.

It’s best to view taking notes on your opponents as the “work” aspect of playing
profitable poker. While it’s possible to play profitable poker without taking notes, it will
inevitably be more profitable to take as many notes as possible for the following reasons:

1. When a similar situation or hand arises, you’ll have more information available that
can help you make the best decision possible.

2. It will help you in getting an overall read on how your opponent is playing.

3. Even if you never play against that particular opponent again, it will help you in
understanding how to play against a similar player in the future.

We’re going to begin by outlining some of the general things you should look for while
playing poker. Each type of play will have an abbreviation that you can use which will
help if you are multi-tabling and only have a couple of seconds to jot in a note. You can
expand these and/or type in the entire meaning of the play when you actually make your
own notes during play.

List of Abbreviations (Brief Overview)

ATC (Play any two cards) – Whenever a hand goes to showdown it’s always good to
note what hands your opponent was playing and from where. This always provides a lot
of insight into how he thinks about the game. When you see someone play 95o from

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middle position, you can label him as ATC. The more you see this from him, the more
solid your read will be.

FC (Flush Chaser) – A lot of opponents love to chase flushes. When you see someone
calling large flop and turn bets with an obvious flush draw, but he folds to a small river
bet, you can be pretty sure he was chasing his flush. Also, if you see an opponent calling
large bets and then connecting with his flush, you’ll want to note this. It’s also important
to note whether he CHECKED his flush on the end or bet it.

SOOT (Likes to play any two suited cards) – This is similar to FC except there are
some players who also like to play any two suited cards from nearly anywhere. When see
opponents play K4s from early position, or J6s from middle position, you can be pretty
sure they’re a suited player. This is good to know if there’s a flush draw on board and
you have a marginal hand, but they’re still calling large bets. It’s also good to note if they
call raises with these hands too. Some people will call large raises with Q8s thinking that
they will bust you if they hit their flush. We love to play against these types of
opponents.

AK (Will bet turned unimproved) – Nearly everyone will bet the flop with any two
cards if they raised before the flop. Not everyone, however, will bet the turn unimproved.
This is very good to know if you’re holding a marginal hand and your opponent is still
firing. This read will be a bit harder to make, because you definitely need to see a few
showdowns to confirm this for sure.

CRW (Calls raises with weak hands) – This opponent will call large raises, for
example, with QT out of position, or perhaps even a re-raise with KJ or some other
dominated hands. He could also call a large raise with A4o or even a more speculative
hand like J8o.

LAF (Will lead into pre-flop raiser and fold to a raise) – Some opponents will call
raises out of position with the intention of betting the flop to steal the pot. Some
opponents will do this with small pocket pairs, and some will do it with air. If you get a
chance to make the distinction between the two, it will be very helpful with your flop
play. However, when you see someone do this, then you’ll want to make some generous
raises on the flop when you have a hand, and sometimes when you don’t have a hand.

Ax (Will play any ace from anywhere) – A lot of opponents fall in love with the Ace.
If you see someone playing A3 from early position or A8 to a raise, or a hand like A9 out
of position to a raise, then you have an Ax player. This just adds more insight for you as
to how your opponent understands the game, and you can also get away from your
pocket kings if this opponent is sticking around on an ace high flop because he’s not
folding his weak ace.

NPR (Will raise a non-premium hand) – Some opponents will raise a non-premium
hand from anywhere. The range which they take this to the extreme will let you know
how loose and aggressive they are. Opponents who raise a hand like KQ from late
position are good to know, but not as loose and aggressive as someone who raises Q9s
from middle position.

LRR (Will limp re-raise big hands) – Some opponents limp re-raise every once in
awhile, and some do it habitually. Anytime you see someone limp re-raise with KK or AA
from EP make a note and know that it’s unlikely he is making a play if he comes back
over the top of your raise.

LA (Look-up artist) - This is a very profitable opponent to play against. He will typically
call nearly any flop bet you make but will fold to further aggression. He tends to like to
see how you’ll react after he calls your first bet, but folds a large percentage of the time

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to a second bet.

Applying your abbreviated reads to situations

Now that we have an idea of some of the things to look for, let’s look at how to use this
information in a real money game. We’re going to take the above abbreviated notes,
expand them a bit more, and show how they’ll apply in actual hands.

ATC (Any two Cards)

Players who literally play any two cards are divided into three types of players, and you
need to be aware of the differences between these players. The commonality to which
you see all of these variations will depend on the stakes you are playing. Typically, you
will only see ATC 1 & 2 at small and mid stakes.

ATC 1 (No grasp of hand strength) – The first group of players who play any two cards
really has no solid grasp of hand strength, position, or why to play certain hands in some
situations and not others. These players are commonly called “fish” because they’ll put in
too much money with weak hands and pay off against dominated hands. You should like
playing with them, but you need to be aware that if you miss the flop, they may have hit
it, and they may also call you down with any piece of it. So you don’t normally want to
bluff players in this category unless you see them folding a lot to a second bet (or third).
You do, however, want to value bet your made hands against them as they will nearly
always pay off with weaker hands or dominated hands.

ATC 2 (Some grasp of hand strength) – You’ll see a lot of these players primarily in
short-handed games, but they also show up in full ring games. These players will play
any two cards, but they generally won’t invest too much into the pot unless they have a
good hand after the flop. They’ll commonly call raises with a hand such as K6o on the
button (note: this is different than CRW – see above) with the intention of either bluffing
you out of the pot or nailing a big hand hoping to bust you with your large pocket pair.
These players will be very visible, because they’ll be involved in a lot of pots, and they’ll
usually be fairly aggressive. If they have some kind of hand strength, then they are
getting involved in a lot of pots for a reason, and that reason is usually because they
believe they can bluff you out of the pot, or bust you with their unusual T4o hand. These
opponents can be more dangerous, but a lot of times they will still go too far with a top
pair hand, thinking you’re bluffing (even though you have a better kicker than they do).
You want to bet into them when you have a strong hand and hope they don’t believe you
and make a move in the wrong spot. Make your bets big and strong against these
opponents, because they tend to not believe people betting into them. You really don’t
need to slowplay against these opponents.

ATC 3 (Good grasp of hand strength) – These opponents are almost non-existent at small
stakes, you will sometimes see them at .5/1 NL and above at 6 max. This player can
legitimately be called a solid LAG (loose-aggressive) player. These players will play
nearly any two cards, because they know how to read situations well and win a lot of
hands even when they have the worst hand. They can also read well when they have a
good second-best hand and minimize their losses. Playing this style requires excellent
hand reading and making a lot of difficult decisions. For these reasons you’ll typically run
into a lot of people that are of the former two types of ATC’s described. Some will be
ATC’s that have some concept of hand strength who think they are good LAG players but
really they aren’t.

So, when taking notes, make sure you know what type of ATC you are facing. Make the
appropriate additional note. When you are playing against an ATC 1, you know this
opponent is just basically “fishy” (bad player). When you are against ATC 2, this player
tends to be more on the aggressive side. He is usually in a lot of pots because he is

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impatient and is an “action junkie”. If you happen to be unlucky enough to see an ATC 3,
just try to stay out of pots with them unless you have a good hand until you’ve
developed your post-flop skill to a high level.

EX1

In the above example, you and your opponent both started the hand with 100BB. It was
folded to you and you raised 5x the BB from MP1 with AcQc. The action folded to the
button who called the raise and the blinds folded.

You look at your notes, and you notice that you put down that your opponent was an ATC
2. You don’t have any other notes beyond that, and you’ve only played eight rotations
with this opponent. The flop comes: 7c,3d,Tc and you make a ¾ size pot bet with your
nut flush draw and two overcards. Your opponent then mini-raises you on the flop, and
you call the raise. The turn comes the 6c, giving you the second nuts. Do you slow down?
No! You should continue to bet this hand aggressively against this type of opponent. It’s
very likely that he may try to represent the flush by raising your bet. You don’t however,
want to bet too aggressively in this particular situation. A half-size pot bet will invite a
possible raise-which is what you want. Give your aggressive opponent a little room to
hang himself, but don’t get fancy and check. Just continue to bet into this type of
opponent.

FC (Flush Chaser)

A lot of No-limit Texas Holdem players just love to make flushes. There’s something
about looking down at J8s that looks so much better than J8o to a lot of opponents at
small and mid stakes. We know, however, that the suited cards only out perform their
off-suit counterpart by 2% (if all the money went in), but our opponents don’t seem to

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mind, or more accurately, don’t know that.

Now, let’s not get confused between the FC player and the SOOT player. The FC player
likes to chase his flush, but that doesn’t mean that he’ll play any two suited cards. You
may have an initial read of FC, and then later find out that the player is really more of a
SOOT, but make sure that you make the distinction because it matters.

Most FC players will still play reasonable cards, but they’ll call large flop bets (pot-size or
more) with their flush draws, which isn’t terrible on the flop. But they will also typically
call large turn bets with their draws, which is bad. It’s bad for them, but good for you.
When you see a person checking and calling and then check/folding the river to a bet,
you can be pretty sure he was chasing, and you can make a note of it (I suggest putting
a question mark next to the read meaning it’s not confirmed yet, but you suspect this to
be the case).

If you are lucky enough to get to see a showdown and their cards, then also make a note
whether they chased with a flush that had likely overcard outs, or they chased with just a
flush draw that likely had no overcards. An example of this would be if they held 8d9d,
and the board on the turn read AcTd4d2h. If they are calling large bets on those kinds of
boards when they only have as many as nine outs, then you can put an exclamation on
their FC note because they are a definite flush chaser.

SOOT (Like to play and two suited cards)

You’ll run into these opponents a lot at small stakes, but there are some at every buy-in
level. These opponents have so fallen in love with the flush that they’ll play any two
suited cards, and often from any position. If you happen to see someone showdown a J4s
from early position, you can rest assured you’ve found one of these opponents.

If you get involved in a hand with a SOOT, and there are flush draw possibilities, bet the
hand hard. Sometimes even overbetting the pot (on flop and turn) is appropriate, if you
have a strong hand. Don’t be afraid of chasing him away, he’ll continue on if he has any
hope if hitting his flush. If you have a marginal hand, bet the flop and turn harder than
normal, but always make sure not to go too crazy. Just because you’re in a hand with a
SOOT, and there’s a flush draw, doesn’t mean he absolutely has a draw. Make sure to
always exercise caution, but look for the telltale signs of a draw, such as your opponent
checking and calling.

When you have position on a SOOT with a good hand, and he’s limped in front of you,
make sure you “pop” the pot pre-flop with a nice raise. You want to make him pay as
much as possible for trying to hit his improbable hand (a player flops a flush less than .
08% of the time). SOOT players are always fairly loose, so you want to maximize your
advantage by getting in a nice raise before the flop.

Also if you’re involved in a hand with a SOOT, and a flush draw comes in, don’t pay it off.
He won’t know that you have this kind of read on them, so they likely won’t be bluffing
you. Again, if your opponent is checking and calling and a flush draw completes, and he
suddenly bets or check-raises, you should fold. Same thing if you’re out of position and
he’s been calling your bets, and a flush draw completes on the river, it may be best to
consider folding, unless he bets a very small amount.

EX2 Both opponents start with even stacks of 150BB

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In the example, a noted SOOT limps into the pot and you pick up AdQh in the Co and
raise to 6BB. Everyone folds back to the limper who calls the raise. The flop comes as
shown: 2c9hQc. The SOOT checks to you and you bet 10BB. The SOOT calls and the pot
is now 33BB. The turn comes the 7d. The FC against checks and you bet 25BB. The FC
calls and the pot is now 83BB. The turn now comes the 3c and the FC bets 50BB. You
should fold.

If this were any other kind of player, you may consider calling. Since you know however
that this opponent plays a lot of suited cards and he was checking and calling the entire
way until the flush hit on the river, you should let it go. It’s very unlikely that HE’S
AWARE that you know he plays a lot of suited cards. It’s also unlikely that he checked
and called all the way with some weak hand like QJ or worse and now decided to just
represent the flush and lead the river. When you make a read, trust it and go with it. You
will save yourself, and also make much more money in the long run.

AK (Will bet turn unimproved)

Nearly all opponents who raise before the flop will follow it up with a continuation bet on
the flop. Not all opponents however will fire the second bullet with an unimproved hand.
When you get a rare chance to see a showdown when someone bets the turn with an
unimproved hand, you should make a note of this and most importantly, write down
what the bet size was in proportion to the pot size.

Noting that your important will fire multiple bullets with a non-paired hand is important,
but it will be rare that you’ll be able to see them showdown a hand often enough to know
the rate they do this. Of course if they fire multiple bullets in nearly every pot they’re
involved in, then you can be quite sure they make this play often. The most important
thing that you can take away as a read within a short session against an opponent is how

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he bets his made hands versus his bluffs.

Some opponents will have a very definitive pattern here. So, if you get to see an AK
opponent go to showdown with an unimproved hand, and then get to see them go to
showdown with a made hand, you want to note the differences in how they bet these two
hands. A lot of opponents (especially at small stakes) are not very balanced in how they
bet their bluffs versus their made hands. Note everything you see about the differences,
and try and relate their betting pattern to a ratio of the pot size.

For example, if you see someone bet an unimproved hand on the flop for a ½ sized pot
bet on the flop, but they bet a made hand for a full sized pot bet on the flop, this will
likely be a pretty reliable betting tell. If you get to see it more than once, you can almost
ink is, as again, a lot of opponents don’t think to alter their play. You’ll know in this
example when your opponent is betting weak, they’re weak, and when they bet strong,
they’re strong. You might for example, see the opposite of this, or any other combination
of betting patterns, and different ones also on the turn. So don’t only note that this
opponent is an AK, but how they bet their hands as well (you should do this with all
opponents of course, but especially true when you see opponents who are firing multiple
bullets).

The best thing to do if you are up against an AK player is to raise the flop if you have
some kind of hand modest hand, or lead the turn. You don’t want to invest too much with
mid pair or an under pair to the board, unless you feel VERY confident in your read. If
you hit the flop hard and have position it’s best to call their flop bet and raise the turn
when they bet again. Otherwise you can check and call out of position and check-raise
the turn.

EX3 Both opponents start with even stacks of 120BB

In the above example a noted AK raises to 5xBB pre-flop. The action folds to you in the

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CO and you decide to call the raise with AsJs. Everyone else folds and the flop comes:
Ac9hJd. The AK player makes a bet of 7BB and you call the bet (pot is now 25BB). The
turn comes the 6h and your opponent makes a bet of 15BB. Now is when you should
raise and commit them to the pot. It doesn’t need to be a pot sized raise as they may
call with top pair. Pushing is also an option here, but between the two making a nice
raise on the turn is the best play.

The key to this hand against this type of opponent though is waiting until the turn to
raise. Remember that because we're labeling them AK, doesn't mean that they have only
AK, but that this type of opponents "double barrells" a lot. Against a lot of opponents it’s
usually best to raise the flop so that you can easily get all the money in as soon as
possible. Against an AK opponent it’s best to wait until the turn since you know they are
aggressive and may fire again with nothing. You might as well wait in case this is true so
that you can pick up the extra bet. On this particular flop, we hope they do have
something and will be willing to go too far with it.

CRW (Calls raises with weak hands)

Against opponents who will call raises with weak hands, you want to do your best to see
how much they’ll call before the flop and maximize your edge by raising as much as
they’ll call. You’ll see some players that will call 6xBB-12xBB and occasionally even more
with weak hands in the hopes of catching some fluke flop and busting you. In order to
make their play as unprofitable as possible, you want to raise continually when they’re in
a hand with you, especially if you have position. There are a lot of CRW players that will
limp and call large raises with weak hands like J9o, T7o, 56o, etc..

When you notice that a player is calling a lot of raises, pay particular attention to the
hands they showdown and note how much they called with those hands. When you have
a big hand and raise, continually try an increase the size of that raise until you can find a
size that will fold them out. Then do your best to stay within the range that will keep
them in the hand with you.

Most importantly, just make sure you are aware of this type of player and know that they
will have a wide range of hands that they’ll play in missed flops. That means that if you
raise with AK and miss, and the flop comes something like: J83. It’s likely that it may
have hit your opponent. If they have position on you, it’s still OK (if it’s heads up) to take
a stab at the pot, but shut down if you’re called.

Another major advantage you’ll have over this type of opponent is that they’ll commonly
go too far with top pair and sometimes middle pair hands. They tend to be somewhat on
the more aggressive side generally, and also don’t believe opponents have the hands
they’re representing. If you hit a nice flop, you can pummel them with big bets and win a
nice sized pot. Even top pair and top kicker is good enough to get a good sized pot
formed against them.

LAF (Will lead into pre-flop raiser and fold to a raise)

These opponents aren’t very easy to spot. You have to pay special attention (which you
should be doing) to the particular dynamics of the hand that’s occurring and note why
they might be making the play they’re making. Generally however there are two types of
LAF’s if you are keen enough to spot them. They are:

LAF A – These opponents tend to be somewhat aggressive and like to apply the pressure
to their opponents by leading into them and seeing if they can “steal” the pot from them.
They tend to know that since most opponents will miss the flop a majority of the time,
they’d rather take the initiative being out of position and see if they can take down the
pot with a bet. They are only somewhat aggressive because they will nearly always fold

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to a raise unless they have a big hand.

LAF P – These opponents tend to be a bit more passive, but will take stabs at the pot
with their mid pocket pairs or middle pair type hands. They will fold instantly to a raise
however fearing the worst of their opponent’s hands.

Both of these opponents present a unique opportunity for you to pick up some extra big
bets. When these players bet on the flop, you should raise with nearly any two cards.
You don’t want to completely overdo this concept, but you do want to apply as much
pressure as possible to these opponents. Since they tend to be able to fold their weak
hands, you want to test them as see how much they really like their hand and how far
they’ll be willing to go with it. Just make sure that if you do overdo this concept that you
are attempting to set them up for a raise when you have a really big hand hoping that
they’ll be ripe to “take a stand” against you and re-raise.

Anytime that you see someone put a bet in on the flop and fold to a raise, make a quick
note of it. Just because someone does it once or twice doesn’t make them a LAF. That’s
why these types of opponent’s tendencies are much harder to pick up on. In only one
session, you may not really know for sure if someone is a LAF. This is much more of a
long term read that you may have to make against a regular player. There are times
however when you will be able to make this read within a session, and it will be quite
obvious when that time occurs.

Ax (Will play an ace from anywhere)

There are many opponents at small and mid stakes that will play A (and any other card)
from any position. They’ll limp A4o from early position, or call a raise with A6o out of
position. They’ll also tend to be “sticky” to these top pair hands if an ace flops. These
players you want to note for a couple of reasons.

1. It will give you some insight into how they think about the game. Meaning you know
this opponent is over valuing hands that really aren’t that strong. So when you have a
modest hand, and they are still involved in the pot with you, there’s still a very good
chance you have the best hand.

2. If you’re in a pot with them and have a high pocket pair, but an ace flops and they
give you action, you can be nearly 100% sure you’re beat.

3. When you flop an ace with a good kicker, you’ll know that they’ll pay you off with a
weaker kicker, so get a lot of value bets in.

Be aware of these opponents and make sure to steer clear of them if there’s an ace on
the flop. At the same time, if there’s an ace on the flop and you hit a nice hand like two
pair or better, make sure to do your best to formulate a plan to get all the money in the
middle. Remember, opponents who play weak aces a lot tend to be in love with these
hands. They are playing them for a reason, and that reason is primarily because they
believe that if they flop top pair they’ll have the best hand.

Ex4 Both opponents start with even stacks of 100BB

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In the example, a noted Ax limps into the pot and you pick up the KhKd in late middle
position and raise 6xBB. The rest of the table folds to the Ax opponent who calls the
raise. The flop comes As7d6h. Your opponent checks to you. You should make a small
stab at the pot (you don’t need to make a big bet). Either they’ll have the Ace and call or
fold. It’s plausible they may call with some sort of straight draw, but the Ace is the
biggest concern against this type of opponent.

You can make a flop bet as small as 5 or 6BB and that will accomplish the task. If you
are called, and your opponent checks the turn then you should definitely check the turn.
If your opponent leads into you on the turn, then it’s best to just fold You want to get to
showdown as cheap as possible and calling the turn usually means you’ll have to call a
river bet too. If your opponent has checked the turn and you’ve checked as well, and
now your opponent fires on the river I would heavily lean towards folding. If it’s a pot
sized bet, then definitely fold. Any other sized bet will really depend on other reads you
have on your opponent. If they are overly aggressive and a noted Ax, you may consider
calling.

You have to consider three important things on this kind of hand. One, it’s very likely you
were out flopped against an opponent you know will call with any ace in their hand.
Second, your opponent called a flop bet on a very non-descript board. It is possible that
they are calling with some kind of small pair or draw. Yet when you have a good read,
you should trust it. Third, your check on the turn indicated weakness. If your opponent is
very aggressive, they may take that as a sign to steal the pot on the river. So you have
to balance all of these things when making a decision about calling a river bet.

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Taking Notes & Making Reads Article (II) (FreakDaddy)

With al the changes to the forum, I thought I should wait a couple of days before posting
this.

NPR (Will raise a non-premium hand)

An opponent who will raise with a wider range of hands makes it a bit more difficult to
put them on a hand. This is primarily the reason you should look for situations that you
can also raise some non-premium hands so that you can keep your opponents guessing
(more on this in other modules). There are typically three different types of NPR’s, so
let’s take a look them.

NPR (maniac) – This opponent will just raise any two from anywhere at any given time
quite excessively. These opponents will have little rhyme or reason to what they’re doing,
but they believe that this will benefit them when they do have a real hand and can get
someone to “stand up” to them with a weaker hand. These opponents will be quite easy
to spot and you need to make sure that whenever you have position and a decent hand
against them that you are re-raising them. The thing an aggressive opponent hates most
is someone who comes back over the top of them.

NPR (fish) – I say this opponent is a fish because they will raise a non-premium hand
such as QJ, or KJ, A3o or a similar hand out of position because they just don’t
understand hand values or that usually only a better hand will call them. They aren’t
really playing to be overly aggressive and outplay opponents, they are just raising
because they believe this is the correct thing to do. Against these opponents you just
want to make note what hand they raise, what position they were in, and how much the
raise was for. In future hands you’ll know that that if you’re in a raised pot against these
opponents, the flop texture is much wider for how hard it hit them. So you’ll either have
to be cautious, OR make them pay for their weaker hands.

NPR (switch) – These opponents will occasionally switch up their game and incorporate
some non premium hands in profitable situations for them. For example they’ll raise a
hand like Q9s with the button after a couple of limpers. They may also raise some
connected cards in early position, or occasionally re-raise almost any hand from the
blinds. Just make note and be aware that you have an opponent that’s capable of making
such a play. There’s not much you can do but know that you may want to raise them if
they bet into you on the flop (because they could have any two) or back away if they
keep firing on a ragged flop. That’s what makes this kind of play difficult to play against,
and why it’s something you should look to incorporate in your own game. You won’t run
into these opponents that often at small and mid stakes, but you will from time to time.

With any kind of NPR, the first thing to do is just make a note that you saw them raise a
non-premium hand. The second identification stage will be to see if they are smart (a
switch), not so smart (a fish), or just plain crazy (maniac). The maniac will be noticeable
pretty quickly. The other two will be a bit more subtle, so you’ll really have to analyze
the situation and decide if the raise made sense considering the circumstance.

LRR (Will limp re-raise big hands)

A good portion of opponents will do this from time to time. There are some opponents
who will do this almost always though. This is one of those reads that you need to just
make a note of, but of course, if you see anyone limp re-raise from early position, the
alarm bells should be going off for you. Nearly all opponents will only do this with big

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hands. That’s why it’s fun to sometimes do this with a weak hand, or a small pocket pair
yourself.

Primarily big pairs include QQ-AA. A lot of opponents will limp this in early position in
hopes that someone will raise so they can re-raise, or sometimes even just call and trap
their opponents. Some opponents will also mini-raise these big pairs in early position and
re-raise. Just make a note, and know that they are prone to make this play so that you
can make the appropriate play (which is fold unless you have a big hand yourself). If you
happen to see someone do this without a big hand, then you know you have a difficult
and thinking opponent, and you’ll want to make a note of that as well.

LA (Look-up artist)

One of my favorite opponents to face is the look up artist. They’re an opponent who will
call a flop bet (usually in position) in the hopes that you will check the turn for them so
they can steal the pot. This is sometimes also referred to as “floating” the flop. These
opponents will not be readily easy to spot, so they take some concerted effort to
pinpoint. You’ll have to pay attention to the opponents who are calling a LOT of flop bets,
but they’ll fold to a second bullet (or they’ll bet when checked to them nearly always).

Once you believe you have discovered a look up artist, try and exploit their weakness by
doing the following:

• If you raise with an unpaired hand before the flop and miss the flop, you can make a
standard continuation bet, but try and make it on the smaller side. Then be prepared to
fire a second bullet – but make sure that you are always thinking about how the texture
of the flop fits your opponent’s hand, and whether you can represent properly the hand
you’re trying to represent.

• Secondly if you flop a big hand, make a continuation bet, this time on the slightly larger
side, and then check the turn to them (if they have position). If you have two pair or
better you can either call their bet on the turn, or if the flop texture has some probable
draws or potentially could get ugly, then come in for a nice pot sized check raise. I’d
recommend that if you only have top pair to just check and call and then take the lead
on the river again by making at least a 1/3 to ½ sized pot bet.

Make sure that if you’ve made these plays more than once against the same opponent
that you occasionally mix up your play because they’ll obviously start to become aware of
what you’re doing. This is particularly true of how you are sizing your flop bet. If you bet
on the light side with your missed hand, and larger with your connected hands, then
make sure one time you switch these up. Obviously if opponents are looking to call a lot
of bets (particularly in position) on the flop, then they are thinking about the game and
what you’re doing. Thinking opponents are aware and may get a read on your play.

A majority of LA’s will be making these plays when they have position on you.
Sometimes though there are some really bad LA’s that will do this out of position with
almost any two cards (usually with ace high). If you notice that an opponent will also call
flop bets out of position, but fold to a turn bet, then make sure you fire second bullets
liberally when you have position.

EX5 – Both opponents start with even stacks of 100BB

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In the above example an early position limper called the big blind and you picked up
AhQh and raised to 5xBB. The player in the Co, a noted LA called the raise. The rest of
the table folded including the limper. The flop came: Kd5h9d. You made a continuation
bet of 7BB and your opponent called the bet (pot now 25BB). The turn comes the 4c. You
should now fire a second bullet. Your opponent won’t have a strong enough hand to
continue most of the time. If you’ve been playing a solid tight-aggressive game, then
your opponent will have a hard time continuing unless he has a K. Combine this with the
fact you know your opponent is a noted LA, and you should attempt firing a second bullet
in this spot.

General player type models

The most general way to describe a person’s playing style is to attribute how they play
before the flop, and combine that with how they play after the flop. This kind of
characterization creates 4 basic player type models. We’re going to look at these 4 basic
models and analyze how and why particular player types exhibit certain playing
tendencies that we’ve described throughout the article (on the pervious pages).

Loose / Passive

The loose / passive player is typically called a “fish”. These opponents play far too many
hands without regard for position, and play them far too passively after the flop. This is
the most profitable kind of opponent to play against of course, because they’ll pay off a
lot of second best hands, and allow you to draw out on them when they are ahead. You
know that if the loose/passive bets or raises, then you’re nearly always beat, so they
make the game very easy to play against them.

Most common attributes of a loose / passive:

ATC – FC – SOOT - CRW

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How to play against these opponents:
Raise pre-flop to isolate – Anytime you have position on a loose / passive you want to
raise with a somewhat wider range of hands than normal in order to buy yourself position
and hopefully see a flop heads up with them. Since these types of opponents are
generally the weakest and make the most mistakes after the flop, it only makes sense
that you’ll want to do your best to play the most pots against them.

Value bet marginal hands– Make thin value bets against the loose / passive on the
river. This doesn’t mean that if you hold top pair and a marginal kicker to always bet, but
definitely bet a top pair and top kicker or better hands if it appears there’s a decent
chance your opponent has some piece of the flop. loose / passive’s commonly call down
with very weak holdings, so you need to take advantage of this by betting at every given
opportunity. Beware that because they are so passive that a lot of times when most
opponents would be raising with strong hands they only call. Sometimes you’ll run into
big hands that you wouldn’t expect seeing. Don’t however let this slow you down.

Fold if they raise or bet – Since these opponents are so passive, if they show any signs
of aggression they tend to have a big hand. Don’t continue in the hand unless you have a
very big hand yourself.

Implied odds are very high – Since loose / passives tend to overplay very marginal
hands, drawing hands such as suited connectors go up high in value. Your overall implied
odds are generally higher against this type of opponent than any other player. So look
for situations where you have position and a good drawing hand.

Bet and raise – If you have a strong hand, make sure to get as much money into the
pot as possible by betting or raising. There’s no need to get tricky with your hand.

How not to play against these opponents:

Don’t Bluff – Loose / passive opponents like to call. They’ll call with King high and they’ll
call with bottom pair without much regard for the action. Save your bluffs for opponents
who have a higher ability to fold. This doesn’t mean that you can’t occasionally semi-
bluff, but keep your bluff to a bare minimum.

Don’t get “fancy” – Play your hands in a straight forward manner. There’s no need for
deception of any fancy plays against these opponents. It will be completely lost on them,
so just bet your hand for value, re-raise and bet when appropriate.

Loose / Aggressive

The loose and aggressive opponent can at times be the most difficult opponent to play
against. Since they are loose with their starting hand selection before the flop it’s hard to
tell if a flop hit their hand or not. They follow this up by being very aggressive after the
flop, and it can put you into situations where you’ll be making difficult decisions. In any
form of poker you want to continually apply the pressure to your opponents and force
them into difficult decisions, while making as few difficult decisions as possible for
yourself.

At small and medium stakes, there are very few really good loose and aggressive
opponents. Some opponents that you’ll face in this category will range all the way from
the total lunatic maniac (who will raise with any two cards and bluff off all his chips with
6 high) to the fairly tricky loose and aggressive player that has some hand reading skills.
You’ll have to quickly deduce what kind of opponent you’re up against and make the
correct adjustments against them. Typically you’ll just want to sit back and set some

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traps for the maniac and let them give you their chips. While the “trickier” player you’ll
want to play back at them occasionally by applying the pressure back on them.

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HAND RANGES (Mercman572)

Plain and simple, poker is about putting your opponent on a hand and acting accordingly.
You stand to benefit when you bet or raise hands that beat the majority of your
opponents holdings at showdown (or will fold out their holdings that will beat you), and
calling when the % of hands in his range that you beat is greater than the pot
odds/equity you are getting. I am going to explain the dynamics of hand ranges.

First, I will begin on Level One:

This is when your opponent is only worrying about how strong his own hand is. Newbs,
this is likely to be the game you're playing in.
Against a level one thinker, you simply determine what hands your opponent
considers to be good ones, and bet/ call or raise when you beat the majority of
those hands
---- If they think 2nd pair or better is a "good" hand, than you simply bet or call when
you have 2nd pair beat. There is one caveat, however. Keep in mind that often even for
bad players, their range for calling a raise will be smaller than calling a bet or betting
themselves. So when you are deciding to raise, remember that although a player thinks
2nd pair is good enough to bet with, they might not call a raise with less than top pair
good kicker. So your raising range should lessen accordingly.

On the next level, an opponent is trying to put you on a hand.

It does not matter what your range really is at any point against these players, it only
matters what they THINK your range is . Too many times I see someone ask a player
questioning his bluff "Would you play AA that way." What they really should be asking is
"Does he THINK you would play AA that way." Of course, we always care about an
opponents actual range. There are several theorems that can be derived from this
concept.
---- 1. When your perceived range has widened, it is likely that villain's range
will widen too. When your perceived range has narrowed, it is likely that
villain's range will narrow as well. Since a player thinks you are betting with weaker
hands when you have a wide range, he will be more inclined to call with weaker hands.
Use this to your advantage.
----- 2. You want your range to be perceived as wide when you are betting for
value, and you want your range to be perceived as narrow when you are
bluffing

Manipulating Your Perceived Range

We can deceive our opponent by acting as they believe we would if we were
weak when we are actually strong, and by acting as they think we would if we
are strong when we are actually weak. It is important to note that different players
have different schemas of what constitutes weak and strong play.
1. We may widen our range through several different courses of action. The most basic is
playing the hand itself weakly. An example of this is betting when you flop TPTK,
checking the turn, and betting the river after the flop gets checked through. Our
opponent believes that because we have checked the turn, our hand can't be that good,
so he will call the river with worse hands than he normally would.
2. Betting paired boards with trips against "Policeman." They think you would NEVER bet
when you actually have trips, and will try to call you down or push you off your hand.
Sometimes, acting overly strong may cause your opponent to think you are
weak.
3. Table image can also affect how weak or strong an opponent perceives you in a given
hand (and thus affect how wide or narrow their betting and calling range will be). After
all, you're raising 1/2 the time and betting tons of flops, so you must be willing to dump
your stack with garbage, right? Remember though, image isn't as prevalent as we

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sometimes think, and misconstruing what our opponent thinks of us is a good way to
massively leak EV.
4. We may narrow our perceived range by showing continual aggression. We raise
preflop, bet a 7 high board against a good player. They call or raise. We bet again on the
turn. Now they are forced to think we hold either an overpair or AK (which may or may
not bet true), and can call with considerably fewer hands than they could on the flop.
5. Or range narrows when we have been playing tightly. Remember this! Sometimes
when an opponent keeps calling when we are very strong, it may be the case that he
sees our range as very narrow, and can beat the hands he puts us on (caveat:
sometimes they only put you on AK and will call down when no A or K flops).

The danger of perceived range (or image).

When you've been playing LAG, you assume people see your range as being very wide.
So by this reasoning, you have to go to showdown alot more. It is very difficult to
accurately assess what an opponent thinks of you, and harder still to think they will react
based on how they feel. So you must be exceptionally good to play LAG because you are
at the constant risk of calling and raising more than the opponents' range would dictate.
You may think they are playing back when they just caught a really good hand. Or you
may think they caught a good hand but are just playing back.
----The danger of playing TAG, on the other hand, is that opponents will be more likely to
fold. When they don't fold, you're not really sure if they are pushing back because they
think your range can't make it to showdown (like when you raise preflop and the flop
comes 789 with a flush draw), or actually have your perceived range crushed. The former
happens rarely, so it is not a major point of concern, and you get good hands much less
frequently than bad ones, so you stand to make fewer errors playing TAG.

That's all for now. I considered third level thinking, but that would be hard to express
and think it's beyond the scope of this single post. Please let me know if you think I have
made an errors or have anything to add.

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RANGES (supwithbates)

To celebrate two things, one of which is my bankroll finally exceeding my postcount, and
the other of which is my becoming a poobah, I've decided to share some musings with
my fellow uNLers.

As everyone knows, the concept behind hand reading in poker is putting your opponent
on a range of hands given the line he takes. Aba20/SBRugby recently wrote an article in
card player magazine on the subject that can be found here.

Reading hands can sometimes be difficult at the microlimits. Often you'll see people
throw out stupid valuebets with hands like 22 unimproved on the river, that never gets
called by a worse hand but that has showdown value given the way the hand was played.
Such bets frustrate me because they are essentially a bluff, even if not intended to be
one, and requires a certain degree of adjustment to deal with it. But even against bad
opponents, you can put them on a range, although it will generally be much wider than
against a good thinking opponent (and not just because they're looser).

The major factors influencing your opponent's range are his holdings, the way the board
comes out, and his feelings on your possible holdings.

This last concept is one that I think isn't stressed enough: how a villain's range of hands
is defined by the way that we're playing our hand. I generally separate this into two
different themes: the lines you take on any given hand individually, and metagame.

Think of it this way: Villain is a 70/0/0 loose passive station that you could say "never
folds". However, if you open shoved into him, he's mucking a lot more than 70% of his
hands. No matter how bad your opponent is, his holdings will always be defined largely
by how you are playing your hand. This doesn't mean you can get him to fold second
nuts, but it does mean that through deceptive play you can increase his range of hands
so that his range is wide enough to include a lot of hands that are much worse. One
example of how to use this concept to your advantage would be when deciding how to
play a set on the flop against an aggressive preflop raiser. Do you lead out, check/call,
check/raise? If you were to check/raise, you've defined your hand as strong in your effort
to build a pot. If you lead out, however, you're likely to keep your opponent on a wider
range of hands going to the turn---he might even decide to bluff/raise you with air! If he
then improves on the turn to a second best hand that will pay you off, you've profited by
manipulating your opponent's range. Another relevant point is "raising for information."
By definition, an information raise has little value in forcing a mistake from your
opponent, but instead protects you from making a larger mistake later on by forcing your
opponent to define his hand. By actually tightening the range of hands your opponent
could be holding, you've narrowed the number of hands you beat, but allow yourself to
play more perfectly against those hands, thus saving you money in the longrun.

So now we move on to metagame. For my purposes today, I'm going to define

metagame as an amalgamation of your overall playing style and the way that you are
viewed by the other players at the table. By playing aggressively, you eventually will
force opponents to adjust by widening the range they play back at you with. Referring
back to the example from before, if you're playing a normal TAG game and suddenly
open shove for 100BBs, discounting the possibility of a misclick you're not going to get
called down lightly. However, take the same line for 12 hands in a row and you'll find
that smarter opponents will be willing to gamble a bit and call with a wider range--
instead of just AA and KK, they'll call with AJ+ 77+, for example. Metagame is all about
creating an illusion, and confusing opponents by playing a wide range of hands the same
way. Take an example in which you are the Big Blind, and it's folded to the small blind

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who limps. If you start raising a very wide range here, you will generally either force
your opponent to give you more walks, or to play back at you with a wider range.
Because you have position throughout the hand, the betting impetus, and the disguise
afforded by aggressive metagame, this creates a very profitable situation because your
opponent will call you down lightly thinking that they're ahead of your range.

As a closing note, I think that many uNLers are asking themselves the wrong questions
when they evaluate a hand. After they lose a hand where they flop top pair top kicker or
an overpair or whatever and get played back at and are felted by a better hand, they
start to question, "Am I ever ahead here?" The better question to ask is, "did I play my
hand in such a way up until this point that would allow me to be ahead of this opponent
now that he's playing back at me." Although the range varies from person to person (and
again, depends on how you play your hand and how the board comes out), most players
have a range of hands that they will be willing to felt, whether it's TPTK+, overpairs, two
pair, whatever. If you're at the bottom of that range of hands, it makes little sense to be
trying to play for stacks because you'll be behind more often than you're ahead. Instead,
you should focus in these situations on keeping your opponent interested with a wide
range while still protecting your hand and extracting value.

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The thought process during a hand (Nogastira)

I'm going to explain how I go trough hands while I'm playing, things I look out for, things that
help me narrow down their handrange and other little things that make me able to play more
profitable against certain people.
I hope this will be usefull for some people, cause it took me some time to write it all

Using your HUD

This is what my HUD layout looks like. I'm going to explain what all these numbers are and
how you can use them.

1) preflop
VPIP/PFR/AF
I marked these stats the preflop stats. These are the 3 numbers you'll see when people are
posting hands. In this example villain is 16/10/2.1.

VPIP: This is the total amount of hands people are playing.

35+ is often a bad player, playing too many hands
16- is a tight player, if he's in the pot, then he'll often have a strong hand

PFR: This goes hand in hand with the VPIP.

18+ expect these players to be raising on the light side from any position. They will be
opening suited connectors every now and then from UTG aswell and their CO and button
range will be pretty wide. Your hands go up in value against these players. You can play

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hands like KQ against their raises because you won't be dominated so often.
12- these are tight raisers, you should be folding hands like KQ against these type of players
because they will have you dominated more often

AF: The total agression factor. Probably overused a bit since it doesn't say 'that' much about
how agressive a player is. People with a high AF might just be playing a raise or fold style
and therefor will have a high AF.
Do notice that this goes hand in hand aswell with VPIP. Higher VPIP will resolute into a
lower AF.
For example: someone with 21/17/3 stats is less agressive then someone with 35/32/3 stats.

2) showdown
WTSD / W$SF
These stats will tell you how often villain is going to showdown and how often he's picking
up pots.
Note: you need a large samplesize for these stats to be somewhat accurate!

WTSD: Went To ShowDown; VPIP has a strong effect on this one aswell. Someone who's
playing a lot of hands will probably go to showdown less often. It also depends on the players
style. The kind of villain that likes to check to induces bluffs on the river will have a higher
wtsd because he wont be betting villain out of the hand on the river.
20- you can bluff these villains more often, they wont see the river too often
30+ calls a bit looser on the river and you should be making thinner valuebets against them

W$SF: Won money when Saw Flop

This is probably best applied to TAGs and regulars since you need a big sample for it aswell
and bad players with a high vpip will automatically have a lower w$sf.
38- these people play straightforward, wont be really bluffing or taking shots at pots
43+ more agressive villains, taking shots at pots, 3bets preflop, raises or floats c-bets, bets
when checked to, ..

3) postflop
CBETflop/CBETturn/CRflop
These stats are usefull for narrowing down handranges postflop. This is of course a key to
solid handreading and making plays!

CBETflop:
80+ these people will cbet too often so you should be willing to check/raise them more often
with weaker holdings (bottom pair with top kicker, middle pair with a good backdoor draw, ..)
When they check its often for potcontroll with a hand like KT on a AK2 flop. They might
have completely missed aswell though when they check.
60- is rather low. They'll be checking hopeless hands, play for potcontroll more often and they
might also slowplay their big hands.
You should probably be leading with your big hands, bluffs and semibluffs since you can't
expect them to be putting in money too often.

CBETturn:
This is when villain bets the turn when checked to, given that he cbet the flop. This number

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requires a very large samplesize.
40+ is high. You should be carefull calling the flop out of position and you need to have a
plan for the turn before you make the call on the flop.
You can slowplay your big hands against them because they will be putting in more money
with bad hands.
25- is low. Therefor you can call the flop a bit lighter and expect more free showdowns.

CRflop:
Once more a number that requires a super big sample size.
3- is low, you should be c-betting more often against these players because they won't be
bluffing you off with a worse hands. You can valuebet QQ on a K87 board because you dont
expect to be raised off with draws or worse hands.
6+ is high and you need to have a plan when you're cbetting on how you'll react when they do
check/raise you. You should be playing for pot controll more often against them. It has no use
to slowplay against them because by betting you give them the chance to build the pot even
bigger with a c/r.
You should also make notes on the type of hands they c/r you with. Often bad players will be
c/r you with TPWK hands and good players will be c/r you with all kind of draws.

4) stealing/defending
ATSB/Fold bb to steal
These stats are good to merge down handranges preflop and will of course be usefull post flop
aswell.

ATSB:
When a player opens for a raise from either the SB, button or cutoff, then it counts as an
Attempt To Steal Blinds.
Here are some general guidlines when you are in the SB and someone does an attempt to
steal:
if ATSB is 36+: call with pocketpairs, AJs+, suited broadways and you can still 3-bet light
with weaker hands (89s/TJs/..)
if ATSB is 20-: call with pocketpairs, AQ+ (and even fold AQ if his ATSB is really low
because they just dont pay attention to their position and playing AQ OOP will get you into
trouble against these kind of villains)

Here are some general guidlines when you are in the BB and someone does an attempt to
steal:
if ATSB is 36+: call with pocket pairs, suited broadways, suited aces, suited 1 gappers, suited
connectors (you do have to find yourself in a position where you know you have a skill
advantage over your opponent, because just playing these hands and play fit-or-fold with
them will be throwing away money)
if ATSB is 20-: call with pocket pairs, suited broadways, AJ+

Fold bb To Steal:
80+ is a tight blind defender and you should be stealing more often with weaker hands. His
range postflop will most likely be pocketpairs or suited broadways.
70- is a loose defender and you shouldnt be stealing with trashhands. This of course also
depends on how bad they play postflop.

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5) response to c-bet
RaiseCB / FoldCB
These stats will also help on desciding weather you should cbet or not.

RaiseCB:
13+ is high so when you do cbet you want your range to be stronger. Hands like KQ on a Q82
rainbow flop go up in value when they reraise.
8- is low and you should get worried when they raise your cbet.

FoldCB:
55- are people who play loose on the flop so you should be cbetting much less. Hands you
normally check for potcontroll should be bet for value now though.
70+ are tight on the flop and you could profitablly cbet 100% of your range on most flops.
When they call or raise your cbet you'll need a big hand or draw to put any more money in the
pot.

Summary
These are some general things I use on my HUD to try to find the correct line against the
villain. It also helps me to merge down their handrange and sometimes even put them on
exact hands. Once you're getting good at that, you can start valuebetting very thin, or check to
induce bluffs in correct spots. Every dollar counts!

I hope it was usefull for someone, then at least my pooh-bah post was somewhat good.
Peace out
-Noga

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Profiling opponents using PAH (sh58)

Most SSNLers will use pokertracker and poker ace hud, and there have been many posts
about how best to use them in the past. I believe, however, that there is a lot of
interesting information you can gather that isn’t so obvious, and is invaluable in judging
how to play certain opponents. A lot of this stuff may be known to some players, or be
common knowledge, but I hope there are a few bits and bobs that will help people.

It is fairly important to have a fairly large amount of hands on a villain before we can
note any patterns, ideally above 1000, but in some cases you can make assumptions
based on only a couple of hundred hands.

The players I usually profile are regulars, usually TAG’s, that I will play with a lot. Regs
are the best people to profile because you will be playing with them on a frequent basis,
you normally have a lot of hands on them (usually datamined), and it isn’t normally
obvious at a glance what their leaks are. There is little point doing any detailed analysis
of the game of a 70/3/2 who you have 100 hands on, because it is incredibly easy to
exploit them, and they aren’t gonna be around very long anyway, so it is pretty much a
waste of time.

These are the type of questions I ask myself about a player:

a)is he positionally aware

b)does he raise lightly in late position
c)does he 3bet light out of the blinds
d)does he play back at you a lot when he calls my raises
e)does he doublebarell a lot after raising preflop
f)does he call down light, or bluffcatch the river
g)does he Cbet alot

when you know the answers to these questions, and you have some reads about how the
villain played certain hands, you can often tear apart a proficient TAG who doesn’t realise
the information you have

The main point in my post is that you can gather general tendancies by combining PAH
stats. Here I answer the questions purely using HUD stats.

a)if the fold SB/BB to steal are fairly high, both 70+, his attempt to steal is 25+, it is
very likely that he is positionally aware. This is useful to use if you are not sure whether
you are facing a Lag or a Lagtard. There are a lot of people at low stakes who have
35/19 vpip/PFR or something similar and you are not sure if they are good or not, well,
using the combo stated above, it is very easy to tell.

b)this is just using the attempt to steal stat. It is very important to know this so you can
3bet a bit lighter OOP. Against anyone who has a 30+ attempt to steal you can 3bet a lot
of hands for value, KQ for instance. 3betting KQ (for value) might not be such a good
idea if their attempt to steal is much lower (>25)

c)this is definitely the most useful one. If villains call PFR % is low (6 or lower is my
general rule) but their fold to steal % are also fairly low (75 or less) then they are
definitely 3betting light. If there is a villain with less than 5 call PFR and about 70 ish fold
to steal% I really attack there 3bets, I will 4bet with whatever trash I am raising straight
away, I can also call 3bets and shove in on tonnes of flops if there Cbet % is high.

d)if a villain is raising my Cbets more than 13-14% of the time, I will 3bet bluff a lot

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against them if they are not maniacs. If it is as high as 20% or higher, then you can
stack off a lot lighter on the flop, especially on draw heavy boards. A lot of aggro donks
have 20% or higher and you really should not fold good hands when they raise this
often.
If there is a reasonable player who raises Cbets a lot, I also will start checking behind
more vulnerable hands, such as middle pair, but with floaters it is best to bet the flop
with MP and TPNK. Habitual floaters are also easy to spot. Fairly low flop AF, call PFR
fairly frequently, and a slightly higher turn AF then you would expect, as well as a fairly
low fold to Cbet % (less than 70). Obviously you want to doublebarell or c/r the turn
against these villains. Another sign of a villain who might play back at you is a high
W$WSF. The higher it is above 40%, the more chance they are playing back at you.

e)if someones turn AF is pretty high (higher than 3) and so is their Cbet frequency, and
their go to showdown is fairly low, you can be reasonably confident that this villain will
double barell regularly. This means you may want to raise flops against them with
vulnerable holdings that can’t take much heat, or you can just call down lighter. Like the
last point, a high W$WSF is the sign of a double bareller, who will try and take down
more pots.

f)there are a lot of passive river players out there. There river AF will be less than 2, with
pretty good hands they will c/c the river a lot to bluffcatch. Here the key is went to
showdown, and river AF. Someone with a really high river aggression factor will be
bet/folding a tonne of rivers with marginal holdings. Against him, you can obviously bluff
raise the river occasionally

g)here just look at the Cbet F%. any higher than 80 and I start bluff raising the flop a
lot.

As you can see, there is a lot of information to be gathered that helps a lot in your
battles with the regs. An important thing to note is that a lot of their moves will be aimed
at you, there fellow good player. They will play much more ABC against the bad players.
So some of the stats will be more extreme then they seem. For instance, a villain may
Cbet 70% of the time on average. Against a fellow TAG, he is gonna be Cbetting closer to
80 or 90%,and on some boards, he is gonna Cbet every single time. The same goes for
stealing blinds, he is gonna steal a lot more against people who have high fold to steal%,
and the TAG is going to be the highest by far. So his attempt to steal being 30% really
means that when you are in the blinds he is gonna be stealing 40-50% of the time.

I will quickly analyse the stats of a random TAG I picked out during my session this
afternoon.

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so this guy is a 21/15/2.5, so a fairly solid player. just from these 3 stats you can tell he
isn't really that aggro. his vpip/PFR ratio has a bit of a gap, so he will be calling PFR's or
overlimping slightly more than a 21/18 for instance. his TAF is also less than 3 so we
can't expect fireworks every time we are in a pot with him.

his opening range is fairly typical from a TAG, with a 28% attempt to steal, but i wouldn't
come after him very light from the blinds, as he is hardly raping us. i think his Cbet % of
69 is hard to exploit, so i wouldn't start c/r him alot when he has the betting lead. i may
try and float him sometimes though, as his turn agression isn't that high.

there are some stats that will be useful when we have the betting lead. his fold to Cbet is
fairly low and so is his raise Cbet, so i would be very wary if he raised my Cbet, but i
think he might float a decent amount. i would doublebarell him alot, but he does have a

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very high WTSD% of 31 so i would be careful as he has some stationy tendencies

as for 3betting light (the most important thing to know when you play with a TAG), he
does have quite low fold stats of 80 and 76, but also a very slightly above average call
PFR, so i think he is 3betting slightly light, but nothing too out of line. i wouldn't be too
upset about calling a 3bet w KQ and stacking off on a K hi flop, for example.

There are probably tonnes of other things that I either forgot to mention, or haven’t
worked out yet. Basically, you can just work out a lot of things just using common sense.
None of this information is worked out mathematically, so the ranges I mentioned are
just a rough guide that seems to work for me, you guy can make up more accurate
ranges if you can be bothered.

I think knowing this stuff will improve your game a lot, as you can start making good
money off the regs as well as the fish, or at least avoid getting 3bet to death when you
open on the button. every player should look at all the players they play with fairly
regularly and do a quick profile so they can react to the flow of the game better, and
adjust accordingly. if they take a few notes with villains tendancies based on the HUD
stats, it will save alot of time and effort the next time you play them, as you may have
forgot what you concluded about them.

feel free to criticise my post, and also add some other useful stat combo's...

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SOME GOOD TO KNOW PAHUD STUFF (Nick Royale)

So I'm testing out coaching and have started by taking a uNL student. To get him started I
wrote a compilation over what PA hud-stats I find most usefull and how I put them into
practice. I figured I might as well post it here because it might help some of you guys out. I
consider vpip, pfr and number of hands standard to have in your hud, so I'm going to
assume you all know what they are and how to use them.

Disclaimer first: DO NOT TURN INTO A PA HUD-BOT

1. Handreading is always the nuts. PA hud does not take the board or previous
betting into consideration, there's no substitution for handreading.

2. Stats should mainly be used in somewhat close situations to tilt the decision
in either direction. Ex: You're at the turn facing a situation you consider pretty
marginal to 2nd barrel. You look at villain's wtsd (went to showdown) and it's
36%, so you give it up.

3. Stats are just numbers, they do not know why they look the way they do, it's
up to you to figure out. Constantly keep taking notes. Ex: You realise villain is
a habitual slowplayer, so despite of his river af being high, he's not bluffing
much on the river.

4. Consider your image. Ex: If you have a laggy image some opponents will
start playing back at you light. It's your job to spot these opponents. Looking
blindly at you PA-stats will otherwise fool you.

Aggression Factor (af) – A (bet + raise)/call ratio postflop

• I don't use this stat so much actually, I think for most situations there are other
postflop aggression stats that will be a better help. It will give a decent overall hint on
your opponents postflop aggression though.
• Important to consider, as vpip increases it becomes harder to maintain a high af. A
player with a vpip of 60% combined with an af of 2 is probably very aggressive. This
is because he plays crappy hands, crappy hands rarely make big hands and yet he
manage to play these hands aggressive.

Attempted to steal blind % (atsb) – How often villain raises first in from CO/button

• Mainly shows how positional aware the opponent is and helps us figure out how light
we should 3-bet him in steal situations.

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 • If a frequent stealer is also a calling station we still most often need a quality hands to
re-raise anyway. As always, the best way to play vs stations is to play good hands and
valuetown hard.
• Since atsb is the same as pfr from CO/btn first in, you can get a quite good idea of
what hands your opponent steals with. Generally an atsb of 30%+ makes a quite
frequent stealer, my atsb is around 36-40%. Put the numbers into Poker Stove to get
an idea of what those ranges includes.

C-bet % (cb) - How often villain c-bets

C-bet turn % (cbt) - How often villain 2nd barrels

• If your opponents has a high cb but a low cbt it's an opponent we could float and plan
to take the pot away on the turn, unless he also has a high wtsd (went to showdown)
since it'sa sign he's a station.
• If both the cb and cbt is high we're often better off raising the flop if we want to bluff
him (still, don't try to bluff a station obv). At the same time we should be more prone
to call rather than raise the flop with our strong hands, to collect an extra bet on the
turn.
• If the cb stat is low we should realise he most often has a strong hand when he c-bets
and thus we should not call as many c-bets. This is also an opponent we should be
more inclined to float preflop ip, because he's more likely to play predictable postflop.
• So what's a high c-bet turn frequency? It highly depends on how often villain bets the
flop. Ex: If someone has a cb of 90%, then a cbt of 50% is high. If someone has a cb
50%, then a cbt of 50% is pretty low. You need to use your own judgement to draw
conclusions.

Fold to c-bet % (ftcb) - How often villain folds to a c-bet

Raise c-bet % (rcb) – How often villain raises a c-bet

• Ftcb is probably the postflop stat I use the most. I just love to be isolate limpers that
has a high ftcb. It doesn't matter if the he's playing 70/10 or 12/5, all are players that
are playing incorrect from a game theory perspective, meaning we'll make an
immediate profit from raising any two cards vs them and c-bet the flop. Anyone
having a fold to c-bet of 65%+ is probably a good target.
Of course we need to realise there's more players at the table so if the rest of the table
is loose we can't isolate much anyway.
• A high ftcb also means we should be less inclined to 2nd barrel (and vice versa), as his
range after calling a c-bet is rather strong.
• Rcb is the very most underestimated stat imo. Some players have a rcb of 4%, but
players having 20%+ is pretty common. Needless to say, there's a huuuge difference in
the range you should felt vs those type of players. A 4%er usually only raises really
strong hands or very, VERY strong draws. A 20%+er is very likely to be capable of
raising air, fd/oesd and maybe even marginal tp or gs. This stat is a great help.
• Rcb is one of few postflop stats I have color coded. 0-15% = white. 15%+ = red. A
player raising 15% of the c-bets are likely to do so with some draws/air. Against a
20%+ I'm usually willing felt any top pair for 100bb, but do NOT use this as a rule-of-
thumb, as it's obviously depending on the board and the strength of my tp.

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Went to showdown % (wtsd) – How often villain goes to sd when seeing a flop
Won at showdown % (w@sd) – How often villain wins at sd

• If a player has a high wtsd you should valuebet a wider range and vice versa. It's quite
straight forward, if he often goes to sd, he's likely to call you down light. On the flip
side, if villain has a low wtsd, he's unlikely to call you down, thus a good target for a
bluff. Wtsd is a great stat.
• If a player has a high wtsd you should usually just c-bet and give up, maybe not even
c-bet. Vs a player with a high wtsd and a low ftcb you should mainly play strong
hands and wait until you hit a hand and and take him to valuetown.
• A high w@sd means is an indicator that villain only takes relatively strong hands to
sd, thus we should v-bet him with a tighter range.
• I also use w@sd to determine the accuracy of the wtsd-number. If someone has a high
wtsd (~32%+) and a high w@sd (~55%+) it's a sign of him running hot and he's not
necessairily a callingstation.

Bet river % (br) – How often villain bets the river

• Br is the best stat for knowing when to call with a bluffcatcher and when to check the
river to induce a bluff imo.
• It's also the stat I use when deciding whether or not to check the turn through to induce
a river bluff.
• Some of you might use river af instead of br, personally I don't think that's a good
idea, at least not when used to determine whether or not to induce a bluff. That's
because a player can easily get a high af despite checking behind alot, as checking isn't
a part of the af ratio. Also, raises effects the river af and raises aren't really relevant
when it comes to bluffinducing.
• Note that br has nothing to do with how often villain raises the river, I prefer going by
feel when raised on the river. A high river af could be the result of villain being a
habitual slowplayer, while br won't be affected as much (as a habitual slowplayer is
more likely to put in a raise, not a bet, on the river).

Combining stats:

There are tons of information to be achieved by combining different stats. I'm just going to
give a couple of examples. But beware, it's easy to mis-interpret the stats and why they look
the way they do and end up spewing.

• A player with a low ftcb, a high turn af and a low wtsd is likely to be a habitual
floater. A floater generally calls alot of flops (low ftcb), he tries to take the pot down
on the turn with his weak hand (high turn af). A floater either gives up or bet/raise, he
rarely calls, the definition of a high af. And he rarely goes to sd because he either takes
it down on the turn, or he gives up with his weak hand (low wtsd).

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 • A player with a fold blind to steal (fbts) of 75% or less and a call pfr of 5% or less is
likely to be 3-betting light from the blinds. He's folding too rarely against blind steals
in comparison how often he calls to not be 3-betting light vs blind steals.

The sample size issue:

You need to consider that most of these stats need a decent sample size to be accurate.
However there's no fixed amount of hands where you can start to trust your stats. After 100
hands most of these stats just gives you a vague hint on how your opponent is playing.This
doesn't mean the stats are completely useless, but you need to know they might very well be
way off. As the sample size increases to 200, 300 etc, you can start to trust the stats more.
Passing 1000 hands you're starting to get a good idea of how your opponents play, but still
there can easily be flaws in the stats.

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BLUFFING

Bluffing assay (ThePortuguee)

Here's a sort of essay ive been playing with. I guess maybe Ill post it in theory later on. I
have no idea how interesting its going to be to you guys.

I'm interested in the theory of the bluff. This might turn out to be a lot of incredibly
standard stuff, but here are my thoughts:

I think that understanding bluffing at its base helps to explain the concepts underlying
one thing that most poker players know to be true: that bluffing is generally MUCH more
effective a higher stakes than lower stakes.

When we ask ourselves "why?" I feel as if our standard response is just to accuse small
stakes players (and fish in general) of being calling stations, but just doing that seems
like something of a cop-out. While it's probably true, it doesn't really try to understand
what's going on in the opponent's head, to try to understand why your bluffs, no matter
how intelligent, are more likely to be called at smaller stakes than higher ones.

I think that understanding this question of why, apart from being something that's
interesting to do in general, would offer a new perspective on what to cosnider while
bluffing, and will thereby allow you to do so much mroe successfully.

The first observation I make in this regard pertains to what you're trying to accomplish
with a bluff. Obviously when you bluff, you're trying to make your opponent fold a hand
that's better than yours, and in order to do so you must obviously convince your
opponent that the strength of your hand is superior to his.

Beyond this, though, I think it might be worth it to consider not just how to make your
opponent fold the best hand, but also make him happy about it. It should be an easy
decision. The "story you tell" with your bluff should be obvious and convincing, so that he
feels like his decision to fold is a simple, money-making play that he can forget about.

When we discuss hands on these forums, certain things seem obvious to us. "Fold,
becuase opponent only fourbets there with aces," or "villain obviously hit his draw," or
"villain never overbets without a set or better in that spot."

These are pieces of advice that we dispense, oftentimes, as if it is obvious. As if the only
decision in that spot is to fold your hand--even though it is often strong, and even
though the vast majority of players (at least at small stakes) would not be able to fold it.
It could be, though, that your opponent has effectively played a nothing hand in such a
way taht not only are you folding it, you're instafolding without a second thought, in
accordance, perhaps, with advice received at this forum. Now that's brilliant, because
now you're going to sit there thinking you did the right thing: you just folded to his
"value bet." And, even worse for you, you'll do it every time feeling like a genius.

The ideal bluffing strategy, then, seems to be to play a hand in such a way that the ONLY
thing you can have in that spot is the winning hand, and this, I believe, is what the
greatest poker players, the ones who are famous for their bluffs, do best: whether they
do it consciously or intuitively, the decisions they put you to leave you inevitably
believing that you must be behind, and so you fold.

Now when a player folds a strong hand, there are a few things that have to happen

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successfully:

1) The bluffer has put you on a hand, and assessed its strength.
2) The bluffer has decided on what HIS HAND IS. This element is key, I think, to
greatness in the art of the bluff. I will concede that it is not always a necessary step but I
will discuss that in a moment.
3) The bluffer plays his hand the way someone with his ALLEGED hand would play it.
4) The bluffer's prey falls for the ploy, and realizes that the bluffer MUST HAVE the hand
that beats him.
5) Prey folds, bluffer wins pot.

The process seems obvious but I don't think that's how your average player applies the
concept, at least not in a conscious way. Im particularly talking about step 2. I think that
oftentimes peopel will read weakness at the poker table and bluff, and can even be
successful. This amounts to a vague and sort of intuitive progression through steps 2-5.
Bluffer doesn't know exactly what he's representing, but he does basically think you have
a hand you can fold, and that showing strength will convince you of his own hand's
strength. In this way, he sort of leaves it to you. he shows some generic strength and
figures that you'll make up your mind that your hand is too weak to beat what he has--
whatever it may be. This might be often effective, but this, think, is where we see "great
calls," because oftentimes a player can think through this display of "generic strength"
and make a call realizing that the only thing that makes sense given the line is a bluff--
since the line isn't consistent with any of the hands that would be winning.

While it is difficult, supplementing the intuitive process of displaying generic strength in

the face of perceived weakness with rational thought seems like a great way to improve
the success rate of bluffs at different points. This might also offer rationale at the table
not to pull the trigger and fire an expensive bullet at the wrong time.

Perhaps what we should be doing at any point is keeping in mind all the possible hands
we can have in a given situation. Say your opponent raises preflop, and you flat call from
position. This implies a range of holdings. For a TAG this range is narrower and is
dominated by stronger holdings. For a more LAGGY player the range is much wider, and
potentially includes all manner of connected, suited cards, etc.

Now let's say you miss the flop and your opponent throws out a c-bet. Now this might
marginally narrow your opponent's range but not much. But if your opponent is a TAG,
he's still likely to have a strong PF hand. Even if he missed the flop, too, which is no
guarantee, he can still have an overpair or outs to TPTK or better. Still, as most PF
raisers will bet most flops, you dont have a whole lot more information than you did
before. Let's say you flat call.
At this point in the discussion it probably makes sense to discuss a sample flop. Let's say
7h 9h 3d.

Note that your holding at this point is irrelevent, because as the bluffer you're going to
make up your mind what you have later. We're actually assuming you have air, so let's
say your hand adapts to be the antinuts no matte rwhat the board. But when you flat call
that flop c-bet from your villain, the range of hands you can credibly have narrows. Now
you have to be thinking "Okay, I'm representing what?"

The answer, here, is Tx8x, Th8h, xxhearts, 6x8x, 6h8h, 77, 99, 33, 79, though arguably,
you might have raised a lot of those hands. And yes, some opponents will be aware that
you're floating.

Now the turn comes a blank, say the 4c. Your opponent bets again.

Now we have to figure out what we have, and waht the opponent has. This is a drawy

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board, so opponent is probably correct to fire two barrels with an overpair, what can we
do?

At this point, it's probably time for a set to raise. A set might flat call but he, too, needs
to be worried about possible draws against some opponents and the pot has been
inflated quite a bit. If you raise, you're representing a set or two pair, IMO, and hoping
you can fold your opponent's range. You dont think he has a set, but you think/hope that
given your line, he can fold hands like QQ.

But, then again, it might be hard. It's not out of the question that you'd play a draw that
way, and given the presence of draws many players can talk themselves into calling.
Your optimal play on this board might be to call and hope a draw gets there, then make a
convincing river bet if he checks, scared. If you smooth call, though, you ACTUALLY ARE
DRAWING for credibility, and you're assuming that you can make him check/fold if, say,
a heart comes.

Now if the heart comes and he check/folds, then he's probably doing it happily, becuase
once you call on the turn and push the river, it just doesnt make sense for you to have
anything other than a flush. So he can fold--he can even do it happily, without ever
worrying about it again.

Maybe a better time to try to "have" a set is on a board of 952 rainbow, where you flat
call a flop bet then make a substantial turn raise. That's how you'd play a set right?
Maybe not all the time, but that's how a lot of people at any stakes might play a set on
such a dry board.

Now all that is a long way of fleshing out the point Ive been tryign to make about
keeping track of your range. Even if you have soething like a speculative pair or weak
overpair in the hole, you could theoretically "change" that holding later on if you think (a)
you're actually behind, and (b) your line up to that point in the hand is also consistent
with a monster, and that a monster would suddenly pipe up while your actual hand
should really be checking or folding.

The ability to do this convincingly, whether we're conscious of it or not, is what we need
every single time we make a bluff, because not only do we need to be convinced of the
weakness of our opponent's hand, THEY need to be convinced of the STRENGTH of ours.

Now we can take this idea (which might seem obvious I suppose) and explain why
bluffing is generally less successful at lower stakes than higher stakes. The reason is
simply that most of our opponents aren't bothering to think about what our holdings
might be. They don't care what we have, only what they have.

Now that's a standard observation but taken in the context of the constant discussion
about whether to bother bluffing Small Stakes players it offers something tangible in the
way of an explanation.

The "bluffs" that are successful at smaller stakes take all this BS into account, but the
effect is somethign substantively different than bluffing a thinknig opponent off of a good
hand. When you successfully "bluff" a small stakes player, you are generally making him
fold very weak hands, like when you c/raise AK unimproved, c-bet a missed flop after
raising, or make a big turn bet in position after it's been checked to you twice. While, in
many cases, your opponent is folding a hand that is technically better than yours, they're
more concerned with the WEAKNESS Of their own hand, rathern than the STRENGTH of
YOURs. It amounts to one high card making anohter, slightly better high card fold.

This is a key distinction, because what it tells us about small stakes HE is that if you
assess your opponent's holding to be one of even moderate strength, you must resign

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yourself to winning the pot only when you have a hand of greater strength--ie, you're
only going to win at showdown.

At higher stakes, it becomes more likely your opponents are concerned not only with
their own cards but with what yours might be in making their decisions, and this is what
you use to your advantage. This is when you can start making overpairs fold, becuase
you simply MUST have a set given a certain line.

The "brilliant" antics of mahatma and others with which many of us are so familiar simply
don't have the same place in our game as they do in his. Many of his most intelligent
bluffs would simply be instacalled not because the individual is making a brilliant read of
mahatma's hand, but precisely the opposite: becuase he hasn't really ever thought about
mahatma's hand, or else he would have bothered to realize that he (mahatma) MUST
have the best of it (even though he actually doesn't).

This is a long explanation of a simple concept, but I'm trying to flesh out some of the
ideas underlying what we all know to be true: that you have to adjust to the quality of
player, and that, corollary to this idea, bluffing at small stakes in big pots is generally
less effective.

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