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Page 1
Objectives of This Course
In American style football, you can have a respectable team if you have a solid
offense and defense. However, with poor special teams (field goals, punt
returns, etc.) even the best team would lose a great many games. We’ve
covered the basics in Options 101 and 201. Options 301 is about special
teams. We hope this course will help enhance your trading by enabling you to
spot profit opportunities that exist outside of traditional price biases (kind of like
kicking field goals instead of scoring touchdowns). Accordingly, you should
finish this course with a few new weapons in your trading arsenal. (You can’t
kick extra points without a place kicker!) Finally we hope that you can begin to
see how you can put all these tools together into one cohesive trading
philosophy!
There were two things that made this course more difficult to write than Options
101 or 201. The first was simply limiting the scope of the course. (For example
there are probably a dozen situations that create opportunities to trade implied
volatility, we’ve covered only three!) We’ve endeavored to include only the
most relevant topics. The second reason this course was more difficult was
because we wanted to avoid technical discourse (tough to do in an advanced
course). Hopefully, you’ll find this course presents advanced topics in a
manner that doesn’t feel advanced. Here’s what’s in store...
Page 2
Table of Contents
Page #’s
Volatility Trading……….……….……....………………………….5 -52
Volatility Trends………….…..…...…………………………..9 -25
What is a Skew?…………………………………………….26 -31
Calendar Spreads…………………………………………...32 -43
Contract Skews……………………………………………...44 -50
Volatility Summary…………………………………………..51 -52
Value Hunting with Variants……………………………………..53 -56
Follow-up Strategies……………………………………………...57-68
Offensive Follow-ups………………………………………..58 -66
Defensive Follow-ups……………………………………….66 -67
Follow-up Summary…………………………………………68
Putting it All Together…………………………………………….69
IFG’s Strategy Grid……………………………………………….70 -71
IFG’s Strategy Summary………………………………………...72 -92
Glossary and Index……………………………………………….93 -95
Hypothetical Risk Disclosure…………………………………….96
Page 3
Prerequisites
This is an advanced course. In order to understand the material presented in
this course, you should have sound, working knowledge of all option
mechanics. You should understand not only option buying and selling but also
how option spreads are created and the advantages that spreads can create.
(They can be used to shift risk, increase probabilities and maximize returns.)
You should thoroughly understand both time decay and volatility. Finally you
should possess a basic knowledge of the “greeks” and understand how they
can be used to quantify underlying risk exposure. This course does not
frequently regress to previously covered concepts, so if you are not confident in
your knowledge of these subjects, we suggest you download our free Options
101 and 201 courses and study through them several times before tackling this
course.
If you are ready to proceed, then let’s get started. We’ll kick off with a discussion
of volatility trading...
Page 4
Volatility Trading
In Options 101 and 201, we discussed positions that are price oriented. In other
words, situations where the success or failure of the trade is primarily
determined by the price movement of the underlying asset. If the price moved
according to our expectations, we made money, if not, we lost money.
However, remember there are three main ingredients in a option’s premium
(price of the underlying, volatility and time). Using options, it is possible to
structure a trade which is designed to profit because of changes in volatility.
(Although we have discussed the impact of implied volatility on positions, the
positions were not designed with the sole purpose of capitalizing on changes in
implied volatility.) This is an area that we believe offers tremendous potential so
let’s examine how we can construct positions designed to profit if implied
volatility changes.
Page 5
Volatility Trading continued...
may be more reliable than price trends makes some amount of intuitive sense.
(Field goals are easier than touchdowns, right?) To see how this is intuitive,
consider the grain markets.
There is no way to know, with any certainty, whether or not a drought will occur
next summer and drive grain prices higher. However, it would certainly be
reasonable to anticipate that grain traders will be concerned about this
possibility. Because of this concern, they will be inclined to raise option prices.
This increase in option prices is quantified and expressed as a seasonal
increase in grain option implied volatility. The fact of the matter is that drought
occurrences have historically been very rare. Implied volatility increases
however, have historically been very common. The high reliability of implied
volatility trends has made implied volatility trading one of our favorite concepts.
In the investment world, the ability to forecast an event is only useful if you can
use that knowledge to generate a profit. You should already recognize that an
option’s premium can fluctuate greatly from changes in implied volatility. The
potential for large changes in an option’s premium is what creates trading
opportunities. For example, an at-the-money option with 100 days until
expiration has an implied volatility of 15% and a theoretical value is $500. If you
change the implied volatility to 25%, the theoretical value jumps to $800!
Page 6
Volatility Trading continued...
Clearly in the example above, if you bought 10 of these options when volatility
was at 15% and sold when volatility had expanded to 25%, you would have
quite a profitable trade. (Or, if you bought high volatility and sold low it would
be a painful loss!)
Note: this illustration is overly simplistic. It does not take into account any change in time or price of the
underlying. The point is to conceptually convey that trading volatility offers the opportunity for profit.
At this point two things should be clear: first, it can be argued that volatility is
easier to forecast than price, and second, accurately forecasting volatility can
offer strong profit opportunities (which also means it carries it’s share of risk)!
Here are the situations that we believe create the greatest opportunities to
profit on changes in volatility:
1. Volatility Trends
2. Calendar Volatility Skews
3. Contract Volatility Skews
Page 7
Volatility Trading continued...
The upcoming sections of this course are designed to help you spot trading
opportunities in each of these three areas, and to know which strategies to use
to trade volatility successfully. We’ll look at some examples that demonstrate
how we recognize trading opportunities, and we’ll employ a few new strategies
such as backspreads, long strangles, long straddles and calendar spreads.
We’ll also learn how to trade volatility with a few positions outlined in the 201
course (namely ratio spreads, short strangles and short straddles).
Let’s get started with the phenomenon that we believe offers the best profit
opportunities for the public trader…volatility trends.
Page 8
Volatility Trends
Implied volatility is basically a barometer of the nervousness in the option pits.
If the market anticipates wild price swings, traders increase option premiums
to compensate for this perceived risk. If the cause for nervousness persists,
then volatility continues to increase as more and more traders become attuned
to this perceived risk. This creates strong trends. In our opinion, there are two
different types of volatility trends that can offer profitable trading opportunities.
Seasonal trends and “major-event” trends.
Seasonal trends are common in markets where weather can significantly
influence supply and demand factors such as the grain markets, orange juice
or heating oil. “Major-event” trends are caused by a period of sustained
nervousness related to an independent, non-seasonal event. An example of a
“major-event” trend occurred in 1998 when many markets experienced
sustained increases in volatility because of economic nervousness due to the
Asian financial meltdown and the potential impeachment of President Bill
Clinton.
Major-Event Trends
Let’s begin our discussion of volatility trends by looking at a “major-event” trend
created by this turbulent timeframe in 1998.
Page 9
Major Event Trends continued...
If you look at the eurodollar price chart below you will notice the
extremely tight band of consolidation towards the end of the chart.
This type of coiling, tightly bound price action is frequently a good sign that
volatility is extremely low. We’ll take a quick look at the volatility chart to
see if this tendency was true at the time.
Page 10
Major Event Trends continued...
As would be expected, volatility had declined to 5 year lows, both for
implied and statistical*. The combined fact of extremely tight price action
and extremely low volatility was a catalyst for action. We began to
evaluate different ways we could buy volatility with the idea that a volatility
breakout was imminent.
The first type of trader intends to make frequent delta adjustments in an attempt
to maintain neutrality. Traders in this category tend to be market makers and
other industry professionals who have very low clearing cost and may trade in
massive volume. They are normally looking for a very minor change in volatility
(1 or 2%). They tend to buy options that are slightly undervalued and sell
options that are slightly overvalued (relative to the theoretical price determined
by Black Scholes or some other pricing model). The goal is to maintain almost
constant neutrality via delta adjustments and reap the profits created by
purchasing theoretically undervalued premium and selling theoretically
overvalued premium.
The second type of trader who utilizes delta neutral strategies makes infrequent
or no adjustments to the position. This trader begins with a neutral posture.
Then, if the price moves favorably, the trader allows the position to assume
price risk. Conversely, if an adverse price move is sustained, the trader simply
liquidates or makes minor adjustments. Logically, prior to establishing the
position, this trader must endeavor to account for the potential impact of price
risk. Another important distinction is that this trader tends to be looking for
major changes in volatility. (They may be expecting volatility to double whereas
the institutional trader may only be looking for a 1 or 2% change.)
Page 13
Major Event Trends continued...
We believe the second (no adjustments) approach is the only viable alternative
for most public traders. Why? Transaction cost, small volume and the lack of
an on the floor presence make it difficult to pursue an adjustment based
approach in our opinion. So, in the eurodollars, we wanted to start with a delta
neutral position and maintain a no-adjustments philosophy.
Page 14
Major Event Trends continued...
Long Straddle Long Strangle
$1000 $1000
Decay Decay
$500 $500
Decay
$0 $0
-$500 -$500
A B
-$1000 -$1000
A
9250 9450 9650
9250 9450 9650
Page 15
Major Event Trends continued...
Now that we knew the type of strategy we wanted to use and the expiration
month, how did we make our position delta neutral? Simple, we were buying
the 9350 puts which had a delta of approximately -.18. If we bought 7 of the
9350 puts our delta on the puts would be -1.26. On the call side, we wanted to
buy the 9550 calls which had a delta of approximately +.14. How many calls
would we need to buy in order to be delta neutral (given our total put delta was -
1.26)? The answer is that we should buy 9 calls. (Net put delta / individual call
delta = x number of calls. So -1.26 /.14 = 9 call purchases.)
*We anticipated an additional benefit in using the deferred contract. The eurodollar futures have historically been
more volatile in the deferred contracts. This proved true again and was indeed an advantage.
Page 16
Major Event Trends continued...
You can make any position delta neutral, simply by adding up the net delta of
one side and buying (or selling) an opposing number of deltas*. If you bought
12 calls that each had a delta of .34, how many puts should you buy to be delta
neutral, given that each put has an individual delta of -.23? The answer is 18
puts. (12 calls x .34 delta = 4.08 net delta / -.23 delta per each put = 17.7 puts
needed, round to 18.)
Page 17
Major Event Trends continued...
The chart below gives a visual depiction of how the futures unfolded. The
breakout was quick and powerful. Again we really didn’t have a clue which
way the market would break, we just felt that it was unlikely the low
volatility could be sustained. The volatility chart is on the next page.
Page 18
Major Event Trends continued...
Wow! Volatility
spikes higher!
that the contracted volatility could not continue indefinitely. We believe in a “no
adjustments” policy towards delta neutral trading and consequently elected to
use a position which should benefit if a) implied volatility increased or b) price
moved substantially in either direction. Trading volatility can be just that
simple. When looking for a “major-event” trend, we typically begin by
examining the price charts for periods of either extreme quietness or price
volatility. Then we check the volatility charts to confirm any extreme highs or
lows in implied volatility. Finally we build a trade with a high vega sensitivity
that also reflects any price bias we may hold.
Feel Free to Call IFG for Average Volatility Charts 800-687-4334 Page 20
Seasonal Volatility Trends continued...
The chart above is a 6-year average implied volatility chart for the soybeans.
The seasonal volatility increase is very clear. Historically, implied volatility
has begun to increase in the early Spring, and the average increase is
approximately 14%. If we wanted to try to take advantage of this tendency
how would we begin? We know we want to be in the the market a little prior
to when volatility begins to accelerate. So, we will probably want to place our
position in the late winter/ early spring.
Page 21
Seasonal Volatility Trends continued...
Page 23
Seasonal Volatility Trends continued...
The two volatility situations we have examined thus far were designed to
participate in volatility increases. Both of these positions involved limited risk
positions and exposure to time decay. Why? As you may remember from
Options 201, buying options creates a positive vega. When you anticipate a
volatility increase you want a positive vega, which means you will be a net
buyer of options. If you are looking for a volatility decrease you should have a
negative vega, which means you must be a net seller of options. As the vega
goes further away from zero (either positive or negative) the sensitivity to
volatility increases.
If you refer back to the volatility chart on Page 21 you will notice that over the
given timeframe, implied volatility frequently peaked out around 30% and
declined sharply thereafter. What type of position could we use to capitalize on
this apparent seasonal decline in implied volatility? Generally, ratio spreads,
short strangles and short straddles are effective strategies to capitalize on a
decline in implied volatility. (refer to the 201 course if you need a refresher on
these positions.) If you are utilizing a “no adjustments” approach and you have
a price bias, you will want to lean towards ratio spreads. If you don’t have a
price bias and expect a fairly quiet market, you should consider short strangles
and straddles.
Page 24
Volatility Trends Summary
Once you have a spotted a trading opportunity, then you can start to evaluate
potential strategies based on the following:
Page 25
What is a Skew?
We’ve seen how volatility trends can give big, dramatic trading opportunities.
Volatility can also provide more subtle trading opportunities. Many of these
subtle opportunities arise in the form of ‘volatility skews’. Since the concept of a
skew may be unfamiliar, we’ll begin our discussion there.
The weather impacts our lives on a daily basis. However, most people are
especially attuned to the weather while on vacation. Nothing is quite as
discouraging as having your vacation ruined by inclement weather. Dreams of
sun bathing with oil soaked, salty skin, and the scent of sea air in your hair, can
quickly be dashed by a major thunderstorm. The astute vacationer, watches the
weather forecast closely, and heads to the museum when the forecast is for rain
and to the beach when the forecast is for sun and fun. Watching the weather
can help you have more fun on vacation. As a weather forecast attempts to
predict sunshine, a ‘volatility skew’ is the option market’s forecast of potential
volatility in the underlying instrument. In short, if an option market is exhibiting a
skew, it has factored in a perception of added risk.
Our goal when trading skews is to design positions which will be profitable if the
observed skew dissipates, or corrects to a more normal posture. At this point it
is quite reasonable to ask... Why should a volatility skew correct to a more
Page 26
Volatility Skews continued...
normal posture? The answer is twofold. First when an option expires, it’s value
is entirely composed of its intrinsic value. It is impossible for there to be any
time value left in the option! Volatility changes only impact time value, so we
can logically conclude that volatility in the expiring month will eventually be
reduced to zero. Secondly it is not uncommon for a volatility skew to be
associated with short term nervousness created by a pending report or other
market news. As soon as the event passes, the volatility skew frequently
dissipates. The disappearing skew is what give the opportunity for profit!
There are two primary types of volatility skews- contract skews and calendar
skews. Either of which can occur independently or simultaneously. Let’s start
by examining contract skews.
Strike Imp. Vol. Contract Skews
800 57% In Options 201, we talked about disparity between
775 50% strike prices. In reality, this disparity is just a contract
750 44% skew. A contract skew is when there is gradated
725 39% disparity in the volatilities of the individual strikes of a
700 36%
675 32% particular expiration month. As an example, let’s say
650 29% the November soybeans futures were trading at 6.70
625 27% and you observed the strike prices and implied
volatilities in the chart at left.
Page 27
Volatility Skews continued...
Notice how the implied volatility increases with each successively higher strike
price. This gradated distribution makes contract skews easy to spot. From this
particular skew we can also determine that there is an increased perception of
bullish nervousness. How can we draw this conclusion? We know that as
volatility increases, options become more expensive to purchase. The higher
strike prices are obviously more expensive (in relative terms only). This is
evidence that either: a) there is increasing demand for the higher strike options
or b) the option sellers are nervous about selling these options and are
accordingly asking a higher selling price. Either of these two alternatives
clearly point to the perception that, although it’s quiet now, a bullish storm could
appear on the horizon. It’s like a forecast for sun this morning and
thunderstorms later this afternoon.
When you make a statement that a “bullish storm may be on the horizon”, it is
tempting to begin to look for trading clues. (i.e. the option traders must know
something if they are factoring the possibility of a bullish move.) On the
contrary, skews may occur because of perceived risk and not necessarily price
biases. For example, beginning after the crash of 1987, the S&P market has
demonstrated an almost continual “bearish” contract skew throughout the
biggest bull run in all of history! This bearish skew was not a forecast of doom,
it simply reflected the mentality that the risk of another crash was too great to
overlook.
Page 28
Volatility Skews continued...
Calendar Skews
As stated, there are two principal types of skews, contract skews and calendar
skews. Whereas a contract skew deals in one contract month only, a calendar
skew is when a particular contract expiration month carries a substantially
higher (or lower) average implied volatility than another month. (The forecast
calls for rain today and sunshine tomorrow,as opposed to a contract skew which
is more like a forecast for rain in the morning and sun in the afternoon of the
same day.) We’ll look at the Jan. soybean options versus the Nov. options in
this example of a calendar skew. (To arrive at an average volatility, we have
used the simple technique of averaging the volatilities of each individual strike.)
Now that we can recognize and have discussed both, let’s summarize the
differences between a contract skew and a calendar skew. A contract skew is
when there is a volatility difference between the individual strike volatilities of
one particular contract month. A calendar skew is when there is a volatility
difference between the average volatilities of two different contract months. In
other words, a contract skew is a directional perception of risk whereas, a
calendar skew is simply the perception that one timeframe will be more volatile
than another. A contract skew is similar to a weather forecast that calls for rain
in the morning and sunshine in the afternoon (the forecast calls for changing
weather during the same time period) A calendar skew is similar to a weather
forecast for mostly rain today and mostly sunshine tomorrow. (The forecast is
different between two different time periods.)
It is worth noting that many markets will carry a natural skew (either calendar,
contract or both) to some extent. As mentioned, a contract skew often persist
in the S&P’s. If you don’t have analysis software that allows you to observe the
natural skew of a market, you should ask your broker for this information.
Otherwise, an apparent trading opportunity could be a routinely occurring skew
that accurately accounts for a statically justified price bias. (In other words,
there is a low probability of profit.)
Page 30
Volatility Skews continued...
Page 31
Calendar Spreads
A calendar spread is a position that should be profitable if a large calendar
skew disappears (abstaining a significant price move). To create a calendar
spread, you purchase an option with a deferred expiration (where volatility is
low), and sell an option with the same strike that expires in a closer month
(where volatility is high). For example, if it is March now, then buying a July
20.00 Crude oil call and selling a June 20.00 crude oil call would be a calendar
spread. You should consider utilizing a calendar spread if you notice that a
near term option contract has a significantly higher average volatility than a
deferred contract (there is a substantial calendar skew).
In this example, we’ll assume that you notice the April D-Mark options are high
priced relative to the June D-Mark options. You elect to place a calendar spread
to attempt to capitalize on this calendar skew. You call your broker and buy 5 of
the June 55 calls (we buy the low volatility options) and sell 5 of the April 55
calls (we sell the high volatility options) for a debit of .32 or $2000 (each point in
the DM options is worth $12.50. So 32 X $12.50 X 5 contracts = $2000) The
maximum loss on serial calendar spreads is always the initial debit plus fees or
$2000 in this case. (Provided you liquidate both positions at the expiration of
the sold option.)
DM Calendar Spread
The blue line on the graph
$4000
provides a profit and loss profile
$3000
of this position at the expiration of
the April calls. If a calendar $2000
spread is held until expiration, the $1000
front half of the skew is forced to $0
disappear. (The April options will -$2000
expire to intrinsic value, therefore -$4000
there can no longer be a volatility
49.00 52.00 55.00 58.00 61.00
factor in their premium.)
Futures price
Page 33
Calendar Spreads continued...
By examining the profit and loss profile on Page 33, it is readily apparent that
profitability is dependant upon the price hovering in a fairly sideways range. At
expiration of the nearby contract, profits occur if the futures have not moved
substantially enough to overcome the time value still present in the deferred
options. However, if the market makes a sustained move in either direction,
the deferred strike price will lose a majority of its time (extrinsic) value, and a
loss occurs.
The main reason calendar spreads are so effective in exploiting calendar
skews is because calendar spreads capitalize on the inherent decaying
character of options. It is readily observed
Time Premium (extrinsic value)
option. It is important to grasp that when implied volatility changes, the change
is solely reflected in the extrinsic (time value) of the option. (If volatility goes up,
the extrinsic value goes up and vice versa.) The less extrinsic value that is
present, the less volatility can impact the option. So, if an option is losing
extrinsic value due to time decay, then implied volatility changes can bear less
influence. By selling nearby premium and buying deferred, calendar spreads
take advantage of this trait.
If you expect a market to move fairly sideways and a large calendar skew is
present, a calendar spread can be a strong trade. It can be superior to short
strangles and straddles because it has limited risk and no margin calls. The
profit and risk profile is similar to a long butterfly (which we’ll discuss later), but
execution is much simpler than a butterfly.
Until now, we have limited our discussion to serial options because calendar
spreads have additional risk when there are no serial options present. Without
serial options, different option months trade and settle against distinct and
separate underlying contract months. For example, The March options trade
and settle relative to the March futures. The June options trade and settle
relative to the June futures. Since the March futures and June futures are two
separate and distinct contracts, there is no guarantee that they will move in
Page 35
Calendar Spreads continued...
tandem. The spread between the two distinct futures contracts creates
additional risk for the calendar trader*. Let’s take a closer look at how this risk
plays out.
*Note: Stock option traders have an advantage over commodity traders when it comes to calendar spreads. In
stock options, all option contract months are settled and traded to the same underlying instrument, the stock itself.
Calendar spreads are much easier to find and implement in stock options.
You actually have a more complicated proposition than it would at first appear.
Since the June futures are at 64.00 and the Aug is at 66.00, it would be difficult
to create a pure calendar spread using the same strike prices. If we used the 64
Page 36
Calendar Spreads continued...
strike, the June 64 call would be at the money, but the Aug. 64 call would be
2.00 in the money. We’ll create a more balanced position by selling 10 of the
June 64 calls and buying 10 of the Aug 66 calls, since both of these options are
at the money. We’ll pay 2.40 for the Aug. calls and sell the June calls for 1.80
for a total debit of 6.00 points or -$2400.
In the graph below, the blue line represents the profit and loss of the position at
expiration of the June options if the spread relationship between the June and
Aug futures stays constant at -2.00. Non-Serial Calendar Spread
(Notice this position has the same
profile as the graph on Page 33 $5000
using serial options on the D-mark.) $4000
Now let’s look what happens if the $3000
spread changes. The red line
$2000
shows the profit and loss of the
position at expiration of the June $1000
options if the June/Aug futures $0
spread has changed to -1.00 (We’ll -$1000
say the June futures have rallied by -$2000
1.50 points to a price of 65.50,
while the Aug futures have 56.50 60.25 64.00 67.75 71.50
June Futures price Page 37
Calendar Spreads continued...
only rallied .50 to 66.50). Notice how harmful the spread move from -2.00 to -
1.00 has been to the profitability of the trade. Since we sold a call in the June
contract and the June futures gained relative to the August, the short June call
lost more than we recuperate in the Aug. contract. Upside risk is only limited by
the change in the spread. (In this case, it has increased by an additional $4000.
The 1.00 spread change or $400 on 10 contracts.)
Of course where there is risk, there is opportunity for profit. The green line
shows the result if the futures spread moved to -3.00 (We’ll say the June futures
rallied 1.00 to 65.00 and the Aug rallied 2.00 to 68.00.) Because the Aug.
futures gained relative to the June futures, the position generates additional
profits (perhaps as much as $4000)! There are times when you may elect to
pursue a calendar spread (in non serial options) to attempt to capitalize on
disparities in futures spread relationships as well as a calendar skew.
What if you noticed that the March futures were trading at a historic low versus
the July contract, and there was a strong upcoming seasonal tendency for the
spread to narrow? You may wish to place a calendar spread in an attempt to
capitalize on this spread relationship (especially if the March options were
significantly overpriced relative to the July options). However it is important to
recognize that your intention on this type of calendar spread is largely to
Page 38
Calendar Spreads continued...
Page 39
Calendar Spreads continued...
In this example we will return to the D-Mark scenario we outlined on Page 33.
This time, we’ll assume that we anticipate a mild rally, and would like to
capitalize on this rally as well as the calendar skew between the April and June
contracts.
In the graph, the blue line represents the profit and loss profile (at April
expiration) of our original calendar spread (sell 5 of the April 55 calls and buy 5
of the June 55 call for .32). The green line represents a diagonal bull
call spread (at April expiration)
DM Calendar Spread
created by selling 5 of the Apr 56
calls and buying 5 of the June 55
$4000
calls for .52
$3000
Notice how the green line has a
$2000
bullish skew relative to the blue
$1000
line. This is reflective of the fact
$0 that a bull call spread has a positive
-$1000 delta, and a traditional calendar
-$2000 spread has zero delta. The
diagonal bull call spread has a
49.00 52.00 55.00 58.00 61.00 higher breakeven and more
Futures price
potential downside risk.
Page 40
Calendar Spreads continued...
This additional downside risk occurs because you will receive less premium for
the short April call, as it is further out of the money. (We sold an April 55 call in
the original spread and an April 56 call in the diagonal bull call spread.) The
diagonal bull call spread still retains the limited risk/ limited profit profile of a
traditional bull call spread.
It is important to remember that any traditional option spread can be initiated as
a diagonal calendar spread, so the possibilities are virtually limitless. Also, like
traditional calendar spreads, diagonal spreads can be created with serial
options or with non-serial options (of course non-serial diagonal spreads
represent additional risk because the underlying contracts may not move in
tandem.)
Accounting
There is onefor Volatility-
crucial aspect of calendar spreads that remains. You should
recognize that calendar spreads are very sensitive to changes in overall
volatility. Increases in implied volatility are beneficial to calendar spreads, and
decreases are detrimental. (This occurs because changes in volatility have a
greater impact on deferred premium). This sensitivity to overall volatility levels
means that you could be correct about your forecast for the calendar skew and
still lose money if overall volatility declined substantially.
Page 41
Calendar Spreads continued...
Page 42
Calendar Spreads continued...
Page 43
Trading Contract Skews
Let’s move on to examine contract skews. As discussed, a contract skew is
when the individual options with the same expiration date have a gradated
distribution of volatility levels. (The weather forecast calls for rain in the morning
and sunshine in the afternoon.)
There are two frequent types of contract skews; a positive skew, and a
negative skew. A positive skew is like the initial example from Page 27 (also
shown below). In a positive skew, the volatility increases the higher the strike
price. A negative skew is just the opposite. The volatility increases as the
strike price decreases. A positive
Positive Skew Negative Skew
volatility skew is indicative of a
Strike Imp. Vol. Strike Imp. Vol.
market that has increased
800 57% 800 28% nervousness about a potential price
775 50% 775 29%
750 44% 750 31% rally. Conversely, a negative skew
725 39% 725 33% is indicative of a market that is
700 36% 700 35% more concerned about price
675 32% 675 38% declines (like the S&P market since
650 29% 650 42% 1987).
625 27% 625 47%
Page 44
Contract Skews continued...
Page 45
Contract Skews continued...
Page 46
Contract Skews continued...
positive skew exist, consider using a call ratio spread (buy one 100 call and sell
two 120 calls). If you are strongly to slightly bearish and a positive skew exist,
consider using a put backspread (buy two of the 100 puts and sell one of the
120 puts).
If there is a negative, skew then options with lower strike prices have higher
volatilities than options with higher strike prices (the 80 puts and calls have
higher volatility than the 100 puts and calls). If you are strongly to slightly bullish
and a negative skew exist, consider using a call backspread (buy two of the 100
calls and sell one of the 80 calls). If you are slightly bearish and a negative
skew exist, consider using a put ratio spread (buy one 100 put and sell two of
the 80 puts). Notice that regardless of whether the skew is positive or negative,
in each instance we are buying the strike prices with low volatility and selling the
strikes with high volatility. Let’s walk through a quick contract skew example.
Through technical analysis you have developed a strongly bearish price bias on
the Jun. Crude. As you begin to evaluate strategies, you notice that there is a
large positive skew in the Jun. options (the higher strike options are carrying a
larger volatility than the lower strike options). A put backspread seems
appropriate since you are strongly bearish and would like to capitalize on the
positive skew.
Page 47
Contract Skews continued...
Let’s take a quick look at the theoretical edge we obtain by trying to naturally
capitalize on the positive volatility skew. The chart below shows a put
backspread created by selling 5 of the 16.00 puts (which have an
implied volatility of 42%) and Put Backspread
buying 10 of the 15.00 puts (which
$7500
have an implied volatility of 30%).
We’ve applied this spread for a $5000
credit of .50 or $500. The blue line $2500
on the graph evaluates the position $0
at expiration. Notice that the -$2500
potentially unlimited downside profit -$5000
correlates with our strongly bearish
price bias. As a reference point, 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00
we’ve plotted the red line which shows the position 60 days prior to expiration
with no change in the implied volatility skew. Finally we’ve plotted the green line
which is the same position, 60 days prior to expiration, only we’ve eliminated the
volatility skew by increasing the volatility of the 15.00 put to 42% (the same as
the 16.00 put.) The distance between the red line and the green line is the edge
that is acquired by capitalizing on the skew.
Page 48
Contract Skews continued...
Before we depart from the topic of contract skews, we should mention vertical
spreads. We discussed vertical spreads in the 201 course. You may want to
refer back to the 201 course, but for a quick refresher: To create a bull call
vertical spread, you buy a lower strike call and sell a higher strike call (i.e. buy
the 100 call, sell the 120 call.) If you are bearish you can create a bear put
vertical spread by purchasing a higher strike put (the 100) and selling a lower
strike put (the 80).
Vertical spreads also can be used to capitalize on a contract skew. If you have
a positive skew (the higher strike options have higher implied volatilities than
the lower strikes), then it would be advantageous to sell the out of the money
call and buy the at the money call. In essence, you are buying the cheap
option and selling the expensive option. As it pertains to skew trading, vertical
spreads are not as aggressive as ratio spread and backspreads. Therefore, if
you have a very pronounced skew, you may want to lean towards utilizing
ratios and backspreads. If you have a mild skew, you may lean towards
traditional vertical spreads.
Page 49
Contract Skews continued...
Let’s quickly review trading contract skews. First of all, we believe contract
skews should normally be used to simply enhance a position. So you should
begin evaluating skew opportunities after you already have a price bias. A
positive skew is when the higher strike options carry larger volatilities. A
negative skew is when the lower strike options carry larger volatilities. The
following chart correlates skews with price biases:
Price Bias
Very Bullish Mildly Bullish Mildly Bearish Very Bearish
Mild Positive Skew Bullish Vertical
S
k Strong Positive Skew Call Ratio Put Backspread Put Backspread
e Mild Negative Skew Bear Vertical
w Strong Negative Skew Call Backspread Call Backspread Put Ratio
Page 50
Volatility Trading Summary
There are three situations that we believe offer the greatest opportunities to
trade volatility. They are:
1. Volatility trends- There are seasonal and event driven trends. You can spot
seasonal opportunities by examining long term volatility charts for seasonal
moves. We have found that unusual quietness or volatility in the price charts is
often a good flag to alert you of potential event driven opportunities. Consider
using Strangles, Straddles and Ratio spreads.
2. Calendar skews- Look for a major disparity between the nearby and
deferred contracts. (i.e. May options have higher volatility than June options.)
Utilize calendar spreads to capitalize. Be cautious of non-serial options and
strong overall volatility downtrends.
3. Contract skews- Exist when there is strong disparity between options with
the same expiration month. (i.e. The June 120 strike calls have substantially
higher implied volatility than the June 100 strike calls). Ratio spreads,
backspreads and vertical spreads are best suited to capitalize.
Page 51
Volatility Summary continued...
The pure volatility trader would desire to eliminate exposure to price movement.
This suggests a delta neutral approach is in order. We believe fees and liquidity
mandate that the public trader embrace a non-adjustment approach. This
means the potential impact of long term price movement must be considered.
Simply stated, if you believe implied volatility will move higher, you want a
positive vega (a net buyer of premium). If you believe implied volatility will be
lower you want a negative vega (a net seller of premium).
It should be noted that all three types of volatility opportunities can exist
independently or in concert with one another. Indeed, you could find a situation
wherein a strong seasonal volatility trend exists and there is a pronounced
calendar and contract skew, all occurring simultaneously in the same
commodity!
Finally, even if you are considering a trade solely because of a price bias, you
should still be aware of opportunities to trade both price and volatility in the
same position. Always strive to have the odds as much in your favor as
possible!
Page 52
Value Hunting with Variants
Sometimes the key to profitability isn’t in the
major deals, it is continuously making Margin: No
Bull Call Debit Spread
sound smaller decisions on a daily basis.
We hope that you finish these courses
B
equipped to make the big trading decisions,
Decay
but also we hope you understand the little
decisions that should still be evaluated.
P Decay
One of the little decisions is determining & A
which variant of a strategy to utilize. If you’ll L
recall from the Options 201 course, there
are several different ways (or variants) you Market Price
This is the traditional approach
can use to place the same strategy. Synthetics
Variants give you the exact same profit and *Buy call A, Sell call B.
Buy put A, Sell put B. This is a variant.
risk profile, only different instruments are Buy call A, Sell put B, Sell underlying.
used to construct the strategy. Before we Buy put A, Sell call B, Buy underlying.
examine value hunting with variants we
should cover the concept of “bid/ask”
A “bid” is the price (or premium) someone is willing to pay for a spread. An
“ask” the price at which someone is willing to sell a spread. When you tell your
broker to get a “bid/ask” on a spread, you are essentially saying, tell me
Page 53
Value Hunting continued...
the price someone is willing to pay for this spread and the price at which
someone is willing to sell the spread. Requesting a “bid/ask” is generally a
good idea, because it can help you determine the price levels that would
realistically be required to obtain a fill. When you are initiating debit spreads,
you will be paying out money for the position, and your order will be a bid.
Conversely, if you are initiating a credit spread, you will be receiving money for
the position and your order will be an ask.
Now with that groundwork covered, let’s move on to examine how you can use
variants to hunt for value. In this example, we’ll consider a vertical spread.
Let’s say you believe the June D-Mark will rally over the next few months.
Given the potential profits, volatility scenario and your risk tolerance, you elect
to use a bullish vertical spread to capitalize on the anticipated price move. A
bull call spread is the most common bullish vertical spread. You call your
broker and ask for the bid/ask on buying the June 56 call and selling the 60
call. You broker tells you this spread is currently bid at 1.20, ask at 1.30. If you
were anxious for the fill, you could put in a bid to buy the spread at 1.30 (there
would be a good chance you would receive a fill since you are bidding at the
asking price).
Just before you place the order, you remember from the Options 201 course
that a bullish vertical spread can also be created by selling a higher strike put
Page 54
Value Hunting continued...
and buying lower strike put. So just to be sure your getting the best value, you
ask your broker, what is the bid/ask on selling the June 60 put and buying the
June 56 put. Your broker tells you the spread is bid at 2.75 and the asking
price is 2.85. If you were to place this bullish put credit spread, you would likely
receive a fill if you offered to sell the spread at 2.75 (you are asking at the
current bid price). Now things get interesting.
The green line below is the profit and loss profile of the bull call spread created
by purchasing 10 of the 56 calls and the selling 10 of the 60 calls for a debit of
1.30. The blue line is the sale of Bull Call Spread vs. Bull Put Spread
10 of the 60 puts and the
purchase of 10 of the 56 puts for $33330 Strike of 60
a credit of 2.75. First, notice the B
$24990
positions have exactly the same
profile (hence variants) Next, $16660
notice that the bullish put spread $8330
(the blue line) has greater profit $0
potential and less risk! The -$8330 A
difference is is represented by the -$16660
gray shaded area, and is not to Strike of 56
When you look at the total risk and profit potential on the trade, $625 may seem
like a small figure. However this savings could make a big dent in your
transaction cost. And why pay more when a better value is present!
In all fairness, you should recognize that these situations do not happen often.
Floor brokers normally erase any edge that can be obtained by simply using a
different variant. However, liquidity issues can make one option strike have a
tighter bid/ ask and it’s usually worth taking a quick look. Sometimes the edge
is there for the taking.
Note: One of the favorite tricks of floor traders is to find a situation where
someone is willing to buy an overvalued spread. The floor trader will sell the
spread to the unknowing trader, and then immediately execute an offsetting
variant of the position to totally eliminate risk. The floor trader then simply
holds the position until expiration and has a locked in profit. Unfortunately, this
approach is not generally available to non-floor traders due to higher
transaction cost and less immediate pricing information.
Page 56
Follow-up Strategies
After you have done everything to select the strategy best suited to your
objectives, you may be given an opportunity to improve your position mid-trade.
This is the world of Follow-up strategies...
A number of years ago there was an obscure and silly cartoon show that
featured a brother and sister duo called the “Wonder Twins.” As with all
superhero cartoon characters, the Wonder Twins had special powers that
enabled them to fight the bad guys and conquer evil. The brother could
physically turn himself into any object made from water or ice (for example, a
bridge made of ice). The sister could transform into any animal (a gorilla for
example). They both had tremendous flexibility but they were still limited. (She
could be any animal, but she couldn’t turn into any other object.) As bizarre as
this whole premise sounds, the Wonder Twins were quite effective at fighting
crime. Whenever they were faced with danger, they would calmly evaluate the
situation and visualize what animal and ice/ water object would best suit their
needs. Then they would transform themselves and escape the claws of doom
at the last moment.
When you are trading options, you should realize that, similar to the Wonder
Twins, you can transform your option position into an other option strategy.
Page 57
Follow-ups continued...
(However, you are still limited and can’t transform into a different market or
onto a different planet.) And like the Wonder Twins, you should get in the habit
of always evaluating the trading environment to visualize if another strategy
would be more advantageous than your current position. When you transform
your position, it is called a “follow-up” strategy. Follow-ups take advantage of
the flexibility that options provide. With options, you can fine tune your initial
exposure, and you can use a follow-up to reduce, or even eliminate your
exposure half way through a trade.
There are two basic types of follow-up strategies, defensive follow-ups and
offensive follow-ups. Simply stated, a defensive follow-up is when you are
losing money at the time you alter your position. An offensive follow-up is when
you are making money at the time you alter your position. Let’s start by
examining some offensive follow-ups.
Offensive follow-ups
In our opinion, the goal of any follow-up strategy should be to improve the
position. You can improve a position in three ways. You can lower the total
dollars at risk, you can increase profit potential, or you can increase your odds
of success. An ideal adjustment never overly influences any of the other
factors. If you make a follow-up that reduces risk, it shouldn’t substantially
reduce your odds of success or your profit potential. (Obviously there will be
an influence on the other factors, however it should be acceptable.) Page 58
Follow-ups continued...
We’ve already discussed one of our favorite follow-up strategies, the free trade
(covered in the 201 course). In a free trade follow-up, you convert an outright
option purchase to a vertical spread. For example, if you purchase the 120
call for $500 (including fees), then you wait for a favorable price move and/or
increase in implied volatility in hopes of selling the 140 call for $500 (including
fees). Notice you are selling a higher strike call for the same premium paid for
the lower strike call. Once completed a free trade has zero risk, or cost. A free
trade can enhance a simple call purchase because it reduces the total dollars
at risk (by $500 in this case) and it dramatically increases the probability of
success. The tradeoff is that you sacrifice unlimited potential profits. (However,
your initial capital investment is freed to be reinvested.)
Typically, a follow-up will just involve converting an option position into a
different strategy (such as the free trade follow-up where you convert a long
call to vertical spread). In essence, you are simply looking to see if you can
convert to a strategy that protects open profits, or that better suits your risk,
profit and probability objectives. Since follow-ups normally involve converting
to a different strategy, we believe the key to making successful follow-up
decisions is knowing what alternatives are available. (The brother Wonder
Twin knows every type of ice object imaginable!) A chart of option strategies
such as IFG’s strategy summary is invaluable for this purpose. Let’s take a
quick example.
Page 59
Follow-ups continued...
Long 10 of the 750 Calls
Let’s say the the Nov. Soybean $30,000
futures are trading at 700. In $20,000
anticipation of a volatility increase $10,000
and/ or weather scare you buy 10
$0
of the Nov. 750 calls for .20 each
(or $10,000 total). The blue line -$10,000
shows the profit and loss on these -$20,000
calls at expiration. 650 700 750 800 850
Thirty days later the futures have rallied to 800 as drought concerns have
indeed surfaced. Your calls are showing a substantial profit (the red line). You
would like to continue to hold the position because a full blown drought could
send “beans to the teens” and equate to several thousand dollars of profits.
However, the first major rain shower could easily send beans back to the 600
level and wipe out all your profits and your initial investment! In short, there is a
tremendous amount of price uncertainty and strong potential for an explosive
move in either direction.
If you could have any position at this point, what would it be? Ideally you want
the best of both worlds. You would like the ability to participate in a continued
rally without exposure of your initial capital. Better yet, you would like to profit if
prices go higher or plummet lower.
Page 60
Follow-ups continued...
Long Straddle Fortunately you remember that a long
straddle makes money if the market
makes a substantial move in either
Decay direction. Is it possible that you can
convert your long calls into a long
P
& straddle? You quickly consult IFG’s
L Strategy Summary and pull up the Long
A
Straddle depiction (at right.)
Market Price
Synthetics
As you begin to analyze the variants
*Long call A, Long put A.
Long calls A, Short underlying. Hummm... under the “Synthetics” section you notice
Long puts A, Long underlying.
(All initiated to delta neutrality.) that you could create a long straddle by
simply selling futures contracts on top of
Long Calls vs. Straddle your inventory of long calls. The bottom
$30,000 graph depicts a long straddle (the red
$20,000 line) that could be created by simply
$10,000
combining your long calls with the sale 5
futures contracts at 800. The straddle
$0
can’t lose! You have unlimited profit
-$10,000 potential in either direction and are
-$20,000 ensured of at least a reasonable profit.
650 700 750 800 850
Page 61
Follow-ups continued...
We’ll use this scenario to introduce a new strategy. Let’s say you anticipated a
sideways market in the bonds and wanted to place a short straddle to capitalize
on the high implied volatility. With 90 days until expiration, you sell the at the
money 120 put and 120 call for 2^52 each or $5625 in total premium. Sure
enough, you are correct and the market stays at a dead standstill. Now with
about two weeks until expiration, you graph out and analyze your position.
Page 62
Follow-ups continued... Short Straddle
$6000
The blue line shows the position at
expiration. The red line shows the $5000
current profit (with 14 days until $4000
expiration). With the market currently at $3000
120, you could take profits now and $2000
pocket about $3500. However, if the $1000
futures stay at 120 you could make an
extra $1100 on the position. In fact, as 116 118 120 122 124
long as the futures stay between approximately 117^25 and 122^10 (shown by
the gray area), you will make more money at expiration than if you took
profits now. So there is definitely incentive to Gamma vs. Days till Expiration
try to hold the position until expiration.
.06 At-the-money
However, you have a big concern. You .05
Out-of-the-money
Gamma
Gamma explodes exponentially during the
last two weeks for at-the-money options. .03
(See chart at right.) This gamma risk .02
means that if the futures breakout and .01
begin to move rapidly in one direction, your
profits may disappear QUICKLY. .00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Days until Option Expiration
Follow-ups continued...
So let’s recap the situation. You have a winning trade and could take $3500 in
profits today. If the market stays quiet, you could increase your profits by as
much as $1100. However, you have high gamma risk, and if the futures break
hard in either direction, your profits could slip away.
Defensive Follow-ups
Up until this point, we have just discussed offensive follow-ups. Now let’s turn
our attention to defensive follow-ups. Remember a defensive follow-up is when
you are losing money at the time you alter the position. The Wonder Twins
would only transform when they were in trouble. Unfortunately, and unlike the
Wonder Twins, defensive follow-up strategies are generally less effective than
offensive follow-up strategies. Why can’t a defensive follow-up allow you to slip
the hands of doom? Because, while every follow-up action
Page 66
Follow-ups continued...
We believe that if you are wrong, you should simply allow your (prewritten)
trading plan to trigger an exit. We would rather take a predetermined,
acceptable loss than try to rework the position in the midst of the emotional
strain of a losing position. However, there is one type of defensive follow-up
that we do advocate. We advise a defensive follow-up if there is compelling
justification towards reducing risk faster than originally planned (such as the
development of a statistically verifiable chart pattern that projects an adverse
price move). In this situation we have found that liquidating the trade altogether
proves to be the best follow-up, but you should always evaluate each
alternative independently.
Page 67
Summary of Follow-up Strategies
Let’s summarize our discussion of follow-up strategies:
1. Like the Wonder Twins, you should calmly evaluate each trade and
visualize if any strategy would more advantageous than your current position.
(We believe it is especially advantageous to evaluate follow-ups upon
penetration of key areas of support and resistance.)
2. If you decide that a follow-up is worth pursuing, use IFG’s Strategy Guide
to see what “variant” combination of options and futures would be necessary
to transform the position into the strategy you desire.
3. Finally, you should be very cautious to ensure that the follow-up will
actually improve the position. How will the follow-up change your total dollars
at risk, your profit potential, and your probability of success? (This is
especially true with defensive follow-ups which tend to destabilize the original
position.)
Page 68
Putting It All Together
In building option spreads, you are only limited by your imagination. There are
literally hundreds of possible spread combinations. You can use one of the
traditional strategies outlined in IFG’s Strategy Summary, or you can create
your own strategies using any combination of the options and the underlying.
What are the three primary factors that influence options? Price of the
underlying, time and volatility. You must account for each of these factors
EVERY TIME you are trading options! You must put all of the factors together
for each trade! If you have a strong volatility bias and no price bias, then
trade volatility with a delta neutral posture. If you have a price bias and no
volatility bias then take a vega neutral position with a strong delta bias.
You can use IFG’s Strategy Grid and Strategy Summary to help you “put it all
together” and make decisions about which strategy to use. (See “Which
Strategy Should I Use?” in the Options 201 course for more info.) Both the
Strategy Grid and the Strategy Summary have been revised for the 301 course
and are now comprehensive of all strategies covered from Options 101
through 301. Although including the old material creates some replication, all
of the strategies are combined into one compact resource. For easy review,
the Strategy Grid and Summary were included as a separate document
(Strategy2.doc) with your 301 download.
Page 69
Page 70
IFG- BULLISH TO NEUTRAL STRATEGY GRID
Very Bullish Moderately Bullish Sideways / Neutral
U&U U&L L&L L&U U&U U&L L&L L&U L&L L&U
Volatility
Rising Buy Fut. Buy Calls Bull Vertical Buy Calls Bull Vertical Calendar Spreads**
Sharply Synth. Call Bkspd Free trade* Call Bkspd Free trade*
Volatility
Buy Fut. Buy Calls Bull Vertical Bull Vertical Calendar Spreads**
Rising
Moderately Synth. Call Bkspd Free trade* Free trade*
Volatility Buy Fut. Bull Vertical Bull Vertical Long Butterfly & Condor Short Strangles
uncertain Synth. Calendar Spreads**
or mixed
Volatility Buy Fut. Bull Vertical Sell Puts Bull Vertical Sell Puts Short Strangles
Falling Synth. Short Straddles
Moderately Sell Puts or Calls
Volatility Buy Fut. Bull Vertical Sell Puts Bull Vertical Sell Puts Short Strangles
Falling Synth. Call Ratio Short Straddles
Sharply Sell Puts or Calls
Legend:
U&U = Unlimited Profits & Risk Green = Helped by time decay
U&L = Unlimited Profits, Limited Risk Red = Hurt by time decay
L&L = Limited Profits & Risk *Free trades are hurt by time decay until completed
L&U = Limited Profits, Unlimited Risk
Page 71
IFG- BEARISH TO EXPLOSIVE STRATEGY GRID
Uncertain But Explosive Moderately Bearish Very Bearish
U&L L&L U&U U&L L&L L&U U&U U&L L&L L&U
Volatility
Rising Long Straddle Buy Puts Bear Vertical Sell Fut. Buy Puts Bear Vertical
Sharply Long Strangle Put Bkspd Free Trade* Synth. Put Bkspd Free trade*
Volatility
Long Straddle Bear Vertical Sell Fut. Buy Puts Bear Vertical
Rising
Moderately Long Strangle Free Trade* Synth. Put Bkspd Free trade*
Legend:
U&U = Unlimited Profits & Risk Green = Helped by time decay
U&L = Unlimited Profits, Limited Risk Red = Hurt by time decay
L&L = Limited Profits & Risk *Free trades are hurt by time decay until completed
L&U = Limited Profits, Unlimited Risk
We will end this course with a detailed summary of
each strategy we have discussed in the Options
101, 201 and 301 courses. These summaries
should prove a useful reference as you begin to
examine trading opportunities. For further
convenience, we have compiled the IFG Strategy
Grid and this summary into a Microsoft Word
document entitled “Strategy2.doc” which you
should have received in your download.
Page 72
How to Read the Strategy Summary
The name of the strategy is on the left hand side. A list of the different profit, loss, time
and volatility profiles is included, as well as ideas on when it is appropriate to consider the
strategy. The margin label above the graph tells whether margin is required with the
position. The profit and loss is depicted on the vertical axis and the price of the underlying
is on the horizontal axis. The green line shows the profit & loss of the position
approximately 3-4 months prior to expiration. The red line is approximately 1 month prior
to expiration and the blue line is at expiration. The variants box list the different
combinations that can be used to create the strategy. The “*” under variants indicates the
most common combination.
Profit Profile: Unlimited potential. Profit increases as the Long Call Margin: No
Long Call
E
price of the underlying increases. At expiration, the breakeven
= strike price + initial premium + commissions and fees.
L
Loss Profile: Loss is limited to the initial purchase price plus
commissions and fees. Maximum loss occurs if the underlying
P
is at or below strike price (point A) at expiration.
P
Decay
M
Time Profile: Time hurts position. The value of the position
erodes into expiration. Theta is negative (can be quite large). & A
A
L
Volatility Profile: Volatility increases help the position.
Volatility decreases speeds premium erosion. Vega is always a
X
positive number.
E
Appropriate Use: A long call should be used when you have
a very bullish outlook, volatility is expected to increase and you
desire a limited risk posture.
Market Price
Variants-
*Buy call A.
Buy underlying, Buy put A.
Page 73
Profit Profile: Unlimited potential. Profit increases as the Long Futures Margin: Yes
price of the underlying increases. The breakeven = purchase
price + commissions and fees.
Loss Profile: Maximum potential loss occurs if the price of
the underlying drops to zero. Losses increase as the price of
the underlying declines. A
P
Time Profile: Time has no impact on futures contracts. &
L
Volatility Profile: Implied volatility has no impact on futures
contracts. Market Price
Appropriate Use: A long futures should be used when you Synthetics
are extremely bullish and don’t mind unlimited risk. The liquidity Long call A, Short put A.
of futures contracts can be a definite advantage.
Profit Profile: Limited to the premium received less Short Call Margin: Yes
commissions and fees. Maximum profits occur at any price at
Short Call
Appropriate Use: If you expect the market to have a large breakout but you are uncertain as to the
direction of the breakout and/ or you anticipate a large increase in implied volatility. It’s an ideal way to
capitalize on bullish volatility trends. We like to utilize long straddles when there has been a prolonged period
of extreme quietness in the futures and the implied volatility has dropped to multiyear lows. Long straddles in
the deferred months will typically have a slightly larger vega and may be more appropriate for volatility plays.
If you are expecting an extremely large breakout, consider utilizing long strangles instead. If you have strong
technical boundaries you may wish to consider liquidating the opposing strike price in an effort to maximize
returns. Another breakout follow-up possibility is to roll into a free trade on the winning side. (This can be an
effective way to lock in some increases in implied volatility.)
Page 80
Profit Profile: Profits are limited. Maximum profits Short Straddle Margin: Yes
occur if the market is at point A at expiration. The
breakeven at expiration is the strike price plus and A
minus the net premium received. Prior to expiration,
profits move towards the maximum as the market
continues to hover around the strike price.
Loss Profile: Potential loss is unlimited. Losses
accelerate as the market moves increasingly away P Decay
from point A. Position has a very large negative &
gamma which must be closely monitored. L
Time Profile: Position is helped dramatically by the
passage of time. Time must move faster than price for Market Price
profits to be realized. Theta is extremely positive.
Variants-
Volatility Profile: Volatility increases wreck the *Sell call A, Sell put A.
position. Though not as susceptible to volatility Sell calls A, Buy underlying.
increases as strangles, volatility trends should still be Sell puts A, Sell underlying.
monitored throughout the duration of the position. (All initiated to delta neutrality.)
Vega is extremely negative.
Appropriate Use: If you expect the market to move into a tight sideways consolidation, and/ or you
anticipate a decrease in implied volatility. Ideal way to capitalize on bearish volatility trends. If you only
expect a moderately sideways market, consider utilizing strangles instead. Due to extreme gamma
exposure, we recommend liquidating this trade when there are 30 days or less until expiration (particularly if
the market is near the strike price used to establish the trade). If you have strong technical boundaries
surrounding the sideways consolidation, consider liquidating the losing side if a breakout occurs. Then you
can attempt to let the winning side expire worthless to recoup any losses. If technical boundaries are not
present, we strongly recommend using a monetary stop. We typically try not to risk more than fifty percent of
the total premium received on a short straddle. Another breakout follow-up possibility is to liquidate the losing
side, and purchase options in the direction of the breakout to create a synthetic futures.
Page 81
Profit Profile: Potential profits are unlimited. The Long Strangle Margin: No
breakeven at expiration is the strike A minus the net
premium paid (including fees) and strike B plus net
premium and fees. Prior to expiration, profits continue Decay Decay
to expand as the market makes a substantial and
sustained move in either direction.
Loss Profile: Potential loss is limited to purchase
price plus fees. Losses expand toward maximum as P
the market continues to hover between points A & B. & A B
Position has a very large positive gamma which should L
be closely monitored.
Time Profile: Position is hurt dramatically by the Market Price
passage of time. Price must move faster than time for
profits to be realized. Theta is extremely negative. Synthetics
Volatility Profile: Volatility increases improve the *Long put A, Long call B.
position substantially. Volatility trends should be Long call A, Long put B.
monitored throughout the duration of the position. Long call A, Long call B, Short underlying.
Because out of the money options are typically used, Long put A, Long put B, Long underlying.
long strangles may have an even bigger vega than (All initiated to delta neutrality.)
long straddles. Vega is extremely positive.
Appropriate Use: If you expect the market to have an extremely large breakout but you are uncertain as
to the direction of the breakout and/ or you anticipate a large increase in implied volatility. Ideal way to
capitalize on bullish volatility trends. We usually prefer long strangles to straddles when we expect the move
to be so large that we want to capitalize on the additional leverage created by owning more positions.
(Rather than owning one long straddle, we’ll take the long shot and buy three of the lower probability
strangles for the same total premium outlay.) We like to utilize long strangles when there has been a
prolonged period of extreme quietness in the futures and the implied volatility has dropped to multiyear lows.
Long strangles in the deferred months will typically have a slightly larger vega and may be more appropriate
for volatility plays. If you have strong technical boundaries you may wish to consider liquidating the opposing
strike price in an effort to maximize returns.
Page 82
Profit Profile: Profits are limited. Maximum profits Short Strangle Margin: Yes
occur if the market is between strikes A and B at
expiration. The position has two breakevens at
expiration: Strike A less 1/2 premium received and
fees and Strike B plus 1/2 premium received less fees. A B
Prior to expiration, profits move towards the maximum
as the market holds steady between strikes A & B.
Appropriate Use: If you expect the market to move into a moderately sideways consolidation, and/ or
you anticipate a decline in implied volatility. The ideal way to capitalize on bearish volatility trends. If you
expect a very tight sideways consolidation consider utilizing straddles instead. Due to extreme gamma
exposure, we recommend liquidating this trade when there are 30 days or less if the market is close to either
strike price A or B. If you have strong technical boundaries surrounding the sideways consolidation, consider
liquidating the losing side if a breakout occurs. Then you can attempt to let the winning side expire worthless
to recoup any losses. If technical boundaries are not present, we strongly recommend using a monetary
stop. We typically try not to risk more than fifty percent of the total premium received on a short strangle.
Often a move through either strike price will trigger us to initiate a follow-up even if a monetary stop has not
been hit.
Page 83
Profit Profile: Profits are limited. Maximum profits Margin: Yes
occur if the market is at strike B at expiration. If Call Ratio Spread
position is initiated at a credit, a relatively small profit B
occurs if the market is at strike A or below at
expiration. Breakeven at expiration is strike price B
plus the difference between B & A and plus or minus Decay
net debit or credit.
Loss Profile: Potential loss is unlimited. Losses Decay
increase as the market moves continually above the P A
breakeven. Prior to expiration, volatility increases can &
cause premature losses especially as the market L
rallies.
Page 86
Profit Profile: Potential profits are unlimited.
Margin: No
Profits increase as the market moves continually Put Ratio Backspread
lower. If the position is initiated at a credit, a relatively
small profit occurs if the market is at strike B or higher
at expiration. Breakeven at expiration is strike price A
less the difference between A & B plus or minus net B
debit or credit. If initiated for a credit, additional Decay
breakeven at strike B less net credit.
Page 87
Profit Profile: Profits are limited. Maximum profits Long Butterfly Margin: No
occur if the market is at point B at expiration. Prior to
expiration, profits may move very slowly. However, B
profits often accelerate dramatically during the final
weeks of trading.
Decay Decay
Loss Profile: Loss is limited. Maximum loss
occurs if the market is at/ below point A or or at/ above
point C at expiration. Prior to expiration, losses will P Decay
move towards the maximum level as the market & A C
makes a sustained move in either direction. L
Time Profile: Overall, position is neutral with
respect to time. As the market approaches point B,
profits increase, especially during the final 30 days. Market Price
Losses will also accelerate at points A & C during the
final weeks. Theta is usually slightly positive. Synthetics
Volatility Profile: The position has a neutral *Long call A, Short 2 calls B, Long call C.
volatility stance. Exposure to volatility is generally *Long put A, Short 2 puts B, Long put C.
limited to the disparity between strike prices. When Long put A, Short put and call at B, Long call C.
used as a follow-up strategy, can help secure a Long call A, Short put and call at B, Long put C.
profitable volatility move.
Appropriate Use: Often is legged into as a follow-up strategy. We like to “buy the wings” when we have
been holding a short straddle and later want to try to maximize profits by holding the position into expiration.
Also you can convert a call ratio spread into a butterfly by purchasing the the upper strike (point C) to reduce
the upside risk of the call ratio spread. This may prove especially attractive if you have been holding a call
ratio spread in a market that has rallied and is now slowing it’s upside acceleration. Long butterflies can
occasionally be placed simultaneously in the deferred contracts. If used in this fashion, you may wish to
consider the position when cost (including fees) is 10% or less than the distance between points A & B. (Use
20% or less if there is a tradable strike between points A & B.) It is important to remember that butterflies
may hold their value until the last few weeks and then rapidly move towards profitability. This occurs
because max profits are realized when point B represents the at-the-money strikes (which have accelerated
time decay during the last 30 days).
Page 88
Profit Profile: Profits are limited. Maximum profits Short Butterfly Margin: No
occur if the market is at or below point A or at or above
point C at expiration. Prior to expiration, profits will
move towards the maximum level as the market A C
makes a sustained move in either direction.
Decay
Loss Profile: Loss is limited. Maximum loss
occurs if the market is at point B at expiration. Prior to
expiration, losses will move slowly towards the P Decay Decay
maximum level if the market consolidates around B. &
L B
Time Profile: Overall, position is neutral with respect
to time. If the market is near B, time decay hurts the
position. If it is below A or above C then time decay Market Price
helps the position. Decay may prove minimal until final
weeks of trading. Theta is usually slightly negative. Synthetics
*Short call A, Long 2 calls B, Short call C.
Volatility Profile: The position has a neutral
*Short put A, Long 2 puts B, Short put C.
volatility stance. Exposure to volatility is limited to Short put A, Long put and call at B, Short call C.
disparity between strike prices or disparity between Short call A, Long put and call at B, Short put C.
puts and calls.
Appropriate Use: We like to convert a Ratio Backspread to a Short Butterfly by selling the out of the
money option. This can be an effective way to capitalize on a volatility increase and potential price
stagnation after a directional move. There are occasional opportunities to place all legs of a short butterfly
simultaneously. This usually occurs when the futures are below point A or above point C (don’t forget to
account for the high transaction cost and potential slippage). It is crucial to remember that short butterflies
will likely hold their value unless there is a sustained move (and the options are forced to intrinsic value) or
until the last few weeks of trading. Therefore, you may wish to place the position in an extremely deferred
contract and liquidate if a sustained move doesn’t occur prior to the last two months of trading. Or, in a more
speculative fashion, you can buy the position with just a few weeks left if the market is a point B and you feel
a breakout move is absolutely imminent. However, remember that time may squash you if your wrong!
Page 89
Profit Profile: Profits are limited. Maximum profits Long Condor Margin: No
occur if the market is between points B and C at
expiration. Prior to expiration, profits may move very
slowly. However, profits often accelerate dramatically
B C
during the final weeks of trading.
Decay Decay
Loss Profile: Loss is limited. Maximum loss
occurs if the market is at/ below point A or or at/ above
point D at expiration. Prior to expiration, losses will P Decay
move towards the maximum level as the market & A D
makes a sustained move in either direction. L
Time Profile: Overall, the position is neutral with
respect to time. As the market hovers between B and
C, profits increase, especially during the final 30 days. Market Price
Losses will also accelerate at points A & D during the
final weeks. Theta is usually slightly positive. Synthetics
Volatility Profile: The position has a neutral *Long call A, Short call B & C, Long call D.
volatility stance. Exposure to volatility is generally *Long put A, Short put B & C, Long put D.
limited to disparity between strike prices. When used Long put A, Short put B & call C, Long call D.
as a follow-up strategy, it can help secure a profitable Long call A, Short call B & put C, Long put D.
volatility move.
Appropriate Use: Often is legged into as a follow-up strategy. We like to “buy the wings” when we have
been holding a short strangle and later want to try to maximize profits by holding the position into expiration.
In essence this position simply combines a bullish vertical spread with a bearish vertical spread. Accordingly
another way to leg into the position would be to place the opposing vertical spread after a favorable market
move. For example, if you have a bullish vertical spread and the market rallies substantially, as a follow-up
you can buy a bearish vertical spread and the result will be a long condor (assuming higher strikes are used.)
Long condors can occasionally be placed simultaneously in the deferred contracts. However, as with
butterflies, the position is transaction fee intensive and must be cost justified. It is important to remember that
all condors may hold their value until the last few weeks and then rapidly move towards profits or losses
(although condors are not usually as sensitive as butterflies in this regard).
Page 90
Profit Profile: Profits are limited. Maximum profits Short Condor Margin: No
occur if the market is at or below point A or at or above
point D at expiration. Prior to expiration, profits will
move towards the maximum level as the market A D
makes a sustained move in either direction.
Decay
Loss Profile: Loss is limited. Maximum loss
occurs if the market is at or between points B and C at
expiration. Prior to expiration, losses will move P Decay Decay
towards the maximum level if the market consolidates & B C
between B and C. L
Time Profile: Overall, the position is neutral with
respect to time. If the market is between B & C time
decay hurts the position. If it is below A or above D Market Price
then time decay helps the position. Decay may prove
minimal until final weeks of trading. Theta is slightly Synthetics
negative.
*Short call A, Long call B & C, Short call D.
Volatility Profile: The position has a neutral *Short put A, Long put B & C, Short put D.
volatility stance. Exposure to volatility is limited to Short put A, Long put B & call C, Short call D.
disparity between strike prices or disparity between Short call A, Long call B & put C, Short put D.
puts and calls.
Appropriate Use: In essence, this position simply combines a bullish vertical spread with a bearish
vertical spread. Accordingly if you already own a vertical spread, you can leg into the condor by placing the
opposing vertical spread after a favorable market move. For example, if you have a bullish vertical spread
and the market rallies substantially, you may be able to protect profits by purchasing a bearish vertical spread
(using lower strike prices). The result will be a short condor. There are occasional opportunities to place all
legs of a short condor simultaneously. This usually occurs when the futures are below point A or above point
D (don’t forget to account for the high transaction cost and potential slippage). Finally, it is important to
remember that short condors will likely hold their value unless there is a sustained move (and the options are
forced to intrinsic value) or until the last few weeks of trading. Therefore, you may wish to place the position
in an extremely deferred contract and liquidate if a sustained move doesn’t occur prior to the last two months
of trading.
Page 91
We hope that you have enjoyed this course. The next
three pages contain a glossary and index. (Also included
in your download is a Word document entitled
“Compglsry.doc” that is a composite glossary/index of
courses 101-301.) If you have any further questions please
drop us an e-mail or give us a call. We also love feedback,
both good and bad. So please tell us your thoughts.
We encourage you to download our Technical Analysis
course. It is free as well, and covers basic and advanced
Technical Analysis concepts!
Page 92
Glossary and Index
Adjustments To buy or sell deltas to restore a position to a delta neutral state. (Pgs. 12-14)
Ask The price at which a trader is willing to sell a spread or other instrument. (Pgs. 53-56)
Bid The price at which a trader is willing to buy a spread or other instrument. (Pgs. 53-56)
Butterfly (long) A neutral option spread created by selling two of the at the money puts/calls and
buying the wings. All butterflies have limited risk and limited profits. (Pgs. 35,64-66,88)
Butterfly (short) A option spread that is profitable if the underlying makes a sustained move in
either direction. The position is created by buying two of the at the money puts/calls and selling the
wings. (Pgs. 66,89)
Buying the Wings To purchase the outside strikes of a long butterfly or condor. (Pgs. 65,66)
Calendar Skew When a particular contract expiration month carries a substantially higher (or
lower) average implied volatility than another month. (Pgs. 27-35,39-41,43,51)
Calendar Spreads The simultaneous sale of a nearby option and purchase of a deferred option.
Traditionally the same strike price is used. The position is designed to capitalize on a calendar
skews. (Pgs. 32-43, 51)
Call Backspread A bullish option position created by selling an at/in the money call and buying
two calls at a higher strike. Call backspreads have unlimited upside potential and limited downside
risk. The position has a large vega and can be used to trade a volatility increase. (Pgs.
22,23,25,47,50,86)
Condor (long) A neutral option spread created by selling two near the money puts/calls (at
different strikes) and buying the wings. All condors have limited risk and limited profits. (Pgs.
65,66,90)
Page 93
Glossary and Index continued...
Condor (short) An option spread that is profitable if the underlying makes a sustained move in
either direction. The position is created by buying two near the money puts/call (at different strikes)
and selling the wings. (Pgs. 66,91)
Contract Skew When the individual options with the same expiration date have a gradated
distribution of volatility levels. (Pgs. 27-30, 44-52)
Contract Skew (Positive) A contract skew in which the implied volatility generally increases with
each successively higher strike price. Positive skews are evidence of bullish nervousness. (Pgs.
44, 46-47,49-50)
Contract Skew (Negative) A contract skew in which the implied volatility generally increases with
each successively lower strike price. Negative skews are evidence of bearish nervousness. (Pgs.
44,45,47,50)
Delta Neutral A state of minimized price exposure created by purchasing or selling the number of
deltas required to take a position to a composite delta of zero. (Pgs. 12-14,16-17,20,22,45,52,69)
Diagonal Spread A variant of any traditional option spread in which two different contract
expiration months are involved. Diagonal spreads are often use to capture both a price bias and a
calendar skew. (Pgs. 39-41,43)
Follow-up A change made to a previously established trade in an effort to improve the position.
Offensive follow-ups are initiated when the position is profitable. Defensive follow-ups are initiated
when the position is at a loss. (Pgs. 57-68)
Futures Spread The difference between two futures contracts on the same underlying
commodity (i.e. June futures vs. July futures). Futures spreads create additional risk to a non-serial
calendar spread. (Pgs. 36-38,43)
Major Event (volatility trend) A sustained rally or decline in implied volatility that is caused by an
independent, non-seasonal event. (Pgs. 9,20)
Page 94
Glossary and Index continued...
Put Backspread A bearish option position created by selling an at/in the money put and buying
two puts at a lower strike. Put backspreads have unlimited downside potential and limited upside
risk. The position has a large vega and can be used to trade a volatility increase. (Pgs. 25,47-
48,50,87)
Seasonal Volatility Trend A somewhat cyclical, sustained rally or decline in implied volatility.
Commonly attributed to weather factors or other seasonal events. (Pgs. 20-22,25,52)
Serial Options A Serial option expires in a month in which there is no underlying futures
expiration. At expiration, serial options settle verses the closest futures contract. (Pgs. 32,35,37-
39,41)
Skew A forecast of potential volatility in the underlying instrument. Skews are visible as implied
volatility disparity between different strike prices or contract expirations. (Pgs. 26-31)
Straddles (long) A option spread that is profitable if the underlying makes a sustained move in
either direction. The position is created by purchasing a put and call at the same strike price.
Can be used to trade a potential volatility increase. (Pgs. 8,14,15,25,51,61-62,80)
Strangles (long) A option spread that is profitable if the underlying makes a sustained move in
either direction. The position is created by purchasing near the money puts and calls at different
strike prices. Can be used to trade a potential volatility increase. (Pgs. 8,14,15,25,82)
Variants A spin-off of a traditional option strategy that has exactly the same profit and loss
profile, but is created with different instruments that the traditional approach. (Pgs. 53-56,61,68)
Vertical Spreads A bull call debit spread or a bear put debit spread or any variant thereof.
(Pgs. 49,51,53-55,59,78-79)
Wonder Twins A brother and sister duo highly adept at fighting crime. Superpowers include
the ability to transform into other objects. (Pgs. 57-59,66,68)
Page 95
Some of the material in this course uses hypothetical examples. Although these
examples are intended only for educational purposes and in no way represent actual or
proposed trades, the CFTC still requires that we disclose the following statement:
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS,
SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING
MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR
LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY
SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS
ANTH ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR
TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE
BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT
INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL
TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE
TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE
MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING
RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE
MARKETS IN GENERAL OR THE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF
WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.