Crude Oil – The Supply Outlook
Revised Edition February 2008Authors:
Dipl.-Kfm. Jörg SchindlerDr. Werner ZittelLudwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH, Ottobrunn/Germany
Scientific and parliamentarian advisory board:
see at www.energywatchgroup.org
© Energy Watch Group / Ludwig-Boelkow-Foundation
Crude Oil – the Supply Outlook 2008/02/11 LBSTPage
2 of 102
About Energy Watch GroupEnergy policy needs objective information.
The Energy Watch Group is an international network of scientists andparliamentarians. The supporting organization is the Ludwig-Bölkow-Foundation. In this project scientists are working on studies independentlyof government and company interests concerning
the shortage of fossil and nuclear energy resources,
development scenarios for regenerative energy sourcesas well as
strategic deriving from these for a long-term secure energy supply ataffordable prices.The scientists are therefore collecting and analysing not only ecologicalbut above all economical and technological connections. The results of these studies are to be presented not only to experts but also to thepolitically interested public.
Objective information needs independent financing.
A bigger part of the work in the network is done unsalaried. Furthermorethe Energy Watch Group is financed by donations, which go to the Ludwig-Boelkow-Foundation for this purpose.More details you can find on our website and here:Energy Watch GroupZinnowitzer Straße 110115 Berlin GermanyPhone +49 (0)30 3988 9664office@energywatchgroup.orgwww.energywatchgroup.org
Crude Oil – the Supply Outlook 2008/02/11 LBSTPage 3 of 102
C
ONTENT
Executive Summary / Key Findings...........................................................................................5Introduction..............................................................................................................................18Scope and methodology...........................................................................................................20Types of oil...........................................................................................................................20Conventional oil...............................................................................................................20Natural gas liquids (NGL)................................................................................................21Tar sands ..........................................................................................................................21Oil shales..........................................................................................................................21Scope and methodology.......................................................................................................22Differences in scope and methodology to other studies.......................................................23Assessment of future oil supply...............................................................................................25Basic concepts – understanding the future of oil .................................................................25Reserves ...........................................................................................................................25Discoveries.......................................................................................................................33Estimates of the ultimate recovery...................................................................................37Production patterns...........................................................................................................38Peak oil is now.................................................................................................................43The position of the IEA and industry...................................................................................49Scenario of future oil supply....................................................................................................52Regional scenarios................................................................................................................52Middle East ......................................................................................................................53OECD North America......................................................................................................55Transition Economies.......................................................................................................60Africa................................................................................................................................62Latin America...................................................................................................................64OECD Europe ..................................................................................................................65China................................................................................................................................66East Asia...........................................................................................................................67South Asia........................................................................................................................68OECD Pacific...................................................................................................................69World scenario .....................................................................................................................69EWG scenario ..................................................................................................................69Comparison of EWG scenario results with other projections..........................................70
Search History:
Result 00 of 00
00 results for result for
p.
More From This User
Notes
Load more
