‘INTELLIGENCE ASSESSHENT *, 09/1016 Sy Ov 2009 1208 Fenway Tecan tomar ae deal tn yeep sro depaies tenn wl yb besoin) yo a ene then ea ttton i epepnar wont Sass as ets Restated omens assop nwoarein | \2 petit cea of snp ay ha TERRORIST THREAT TO CANADIAN INTERESTS IN LIBYA. Libya has effectively countered the Islamist terrorist threat within its borders,Maciciem stent bors Introduction 1. This assessment was produced at the request of the Canadian Security Ineligence Service (csis) “Evolution of Terrorism in Libya ‘2. During the 1980s, the Libyan government was prolific in sponsoring several terrorist atacks _against Europe such as the Lockerbie bombing, the bombing of a French azlner, and the ‘Dombing ofa night club in Berlin 43. As wae the cate with many other Muslim countries in the early 1990s, several thousand ‘mujahideen fighters began regrouping in Libya after returning from fighting the Sovies in Afghanistan. Assassination attempts on Qechafi in 1996 and 1998 resulted in an extensive counter-insurgency campaign in the.estera regions of Libya, and many Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) memiers fled to Europe and the Middle East which effectively suppressed the Islamist insurgency in Libya. Geography of Islamist Extremism In Libya 4. While Libya’s oil revenues continue to grow, its unemployment rate is approximately 30% and ‘economic benefits are not filtering down tothe local population. In part, Libya's high ‘unemployment rate stems from many employers hiring foreign, illegal workers rather than Libyans. Tis situation contributes to social unrest, particularly inthe eastom past of Libya centered around Benghazi, which is underdeveloped relative to the rst of Libya and where violent protests occured in Fabruary 2006, Tho eset region has traditionally been the site of ‘previous rebellions against the Libyan regime and where several Islamist insurgent groups were ‘based. Within the region, the population holds more conservative religious views compared to ‘the est of Libya and Islamist activism is strongly concentrated. 5 ‘Open source reporting indicates that a number of Shoiks in the mosques of Benghazi issued fatwas, instructing followers that it was their duty to fight in Ire, In geographical terms, ‘therefore, the easter regions represent the epicentre of Islamist extremism in Libya,TACICIEM secre ony Principal Terrorist Elements in Libya 6. Libyan Islamic Fighting Group: The LIFG was established in 1991 with the goal of ‘overthrowing the Qadhafi regime and installing sharia law. ARer effective Libyan counter- insurgency operation inthe 1990s, the LIFG leadership end is members were imprisoned or ed to Europe, Aighanista, or sought safe haven elsewhers In adition, it appears theres currently «split inthe group over the use of violence and the group's algument with Al Queda. For ‘example, according toa statement published by Ayman-al-Zawahiri in November 2007 (AL (Qaeda's second in command), the LIFG pledged allegiance to Al Queds inthe Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), based in neighbouring Algeria. Tis was later publi repudiated in 2009 by LIFG leadership inthe United Kingdom. Moreover, although the IEG leadership imprisoned in Libya have reconciled withthe Libyan goverament and renounced violence, the group's extemal leadership is apparently stil committed to Al Qaeda. Even theugh the number of LIFG members operating in Libya remains unclear, the LIFG's ability to operate in Libya is severely constrained. 7. Unaffiliated Terrorist Cells: Ther are a number of snl independent extremist cell ‘operating in the eastem regions of Libya that have no afiliation to othe established terrorist groups. Many Libyan extremists who have been detained claimed to be influenced by Al Qaeda, ‘but do not appear to have direct links to Al Qaeda Core in Pakistan,TACICIEM stcner. Canadian Interests in Libya 11 Canada’s bilateral relationship with Libya has strengthened considerably, both diplomatically and economically, when intemational sanctions were lifted in 2003 efter the Libyan regime ‘renounced terorism and halted its weapons of mass destruction programs. 12. As of November 2009, thee were 12 Canadian firms registered with the Embassy of Canada in Tripoli. Since Libya has the largest proven ol reserves in all of Affica and Europe, most ofthe ‘Canadian firms are involved in ol and gas operations. However, there are also a number of | ‘Canadian technology and engineering firms such as SNC-Lavalin involved in major infrastructure projects. Moreover, Cenads has signed a nuclear energy agreement with Libya in July 2009 allowing Canadian companies to cooperate with Libya in processing uranium, 13. The Embassy of Canada is located in Tripoli, the capital city of Libya. This office building, known as the Al-Fatch Towers, hosts several ather embassies and interational firms. In addition, 13 of November 2009, there were 157 Canadians registered with the Embassy of Canada in Libya,mACICIEM seems onvsete ie funenes orsign any ase parece pera eee cesta ‘Sete at na tr nl onde wo soma wn Cassy ties Sn ‘Bete dna hs men pte ej stale Cnn yelper che oH ‘Seleebres cur pr any pndeon mpd paren edna he Ca See {nue Serce my tara ea pr th oe Be he csr pet aan ‘Sagas om pranayama of ae