Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword
Like this
1Activity
P. 1
Trans-Pacific Rebalancing: Thailand Case Study

Trans-Pacific Rebalancing: Thailand Case Study

Ratings: (0)|Views: 116|Likes:
Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Thailand has become highly dependent on export as the engine of economic recovery and growth. In 2008, the ratio of export to gross domestic product (GDP) was 76.5%. The global economic crisis triggered by the sub-prime loans debacle in the United States has prompted Thailand to rethink her export-led growth strategy. Year-on-year export growth plunged from a positive 22.7% in the third quarter of 2008 to a negative 7.75% in the fourth quarter and remained negative for another four quarters, leading to a negative growth of GDP for five consecutive quarters. This paper examines the options for external and internal economic rebalancing strategies for Thailand. External rebalancing will require Thailand to rely less on the US market for her exports. The paper thus examines the possibility of promoting greater regional trade by means of trade agreements and exchange rate coordination. As for internal rebalancing, the paper emphasizes the need to boost domestic public and private investment in terms of both quantity and quality in order to narrow the current savings–investment gap, bearing in mind the need to ensure fiscal sustainability. Finally, the paper examines broader rebalancing strategies that will help Thailand to become less dependent on exports. These include the need to (1) improve productivity by means of technological acquisition, innovation, and skills development; (2) increase economic efficiency by exposing the non-traded sectors, in particular the service sector, to greater competitive pressures; (3) deepen the production structure and create new dynamic industries; and (4) generate new growth poles.

Download this working paper: http://www.adbi.org/working-paper/2011/03/31/4498.transpacific.rebalancing.thailand/
Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Thailand has become highly dependent on export as the engine of economic recovery and growth. In 2008, the ratio of export to gross domestic product (GDP) was 76.5%. The global economic crisis triggered by the sub-prime loans debacle in the United States has prompted Thailand to rethink her export-led growth strategy. Year-on-year export growth plunged from a positive 22.7% in the third quarter of 2008 to a negative 7.75% in the fourth quarter and remained negative for another four quarters, leading to a negative growth of GDP for five consecutive quarters. This paper examines the options for external and internal economic rebalancing strategies for Thailand. External rebalancing will require Thailand to rely less on the US market for her exports. The paper thus examines the possibility of promoting greater regional trade by means of trade agreements and exchange rate coordination. As for internal rebalancing, the paper emphasizes the need to boost domestic public and private investment in terms of both quantity and quality in order to narrow the current savings–investment gap, bearing in mind the need to ensure fiscal sustainability. Finally, the paper examines broader rebalancing strategies that will help Thailand to become less dependent on exports. These include the need to (1) improve productivity by means of technological acquisition, innovation, and skills development; (2) increase economic efficiency by exposing the non-traded sectors, in particular the service sector, to greater competitive pressures; (3) deepen the production structure and create new dynamic industries; and (4) generate new growth poles.

Download this working paper: http://www.adbi.org/working-paper/2011/03/31/4498.transpacific.rebalancing.thailand/

More info:

Published by: Asian Development Bank Institute on Mar 31, 2011
Copyright:Traditional Copyright: All rights reserved

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

03/31/2011

pdf

 
 
HJIK ^oyekcn Phpfy Wfykfw
Zyhcw"Phgkmkg Yfihlhcgkcn1 Zdhklhcj GhwfWzvj{
Gdhlocnpdoi Wvwwhcnehyc hcjJfvcjfc CkeobioykyheCo# 9>7Bhygd 9088
 
Hwkhc Jf}flopbfcz Ihce Kcwzkzvzf
 
 Zdf ^oyekcn Phpfy wfykfw kw h goczkcvhzkoc om zdf moybfyl{ chbfj Jkwgvwwkoc Phpfy wfykfw5zdf cvbifykcn om zdf phpfyw goczkcvfj ~kzdovz kczfyyvpzkoc oy gdhcnf# HJIK‛w ~oyekcnphpfyw yfmlfgz kckzkhl kjfhw oc h zopkg hcj hyf powzfj oclkcf moy jkwgvwwkoc# HJIK fcgovyhnfwyfhjfyw zo powz zdfky gobbfczw oc zdf bhkc phnf moy fhgd ~oyekcn phpfy $nk}fc kc zdfgkzhzkoc iflo~+# Wobf ~oyekcn phpfyw bh{ jf}flop kczo ozdfy moybw om pvilkghzkoc#Wvnnfwzfj gkzhzkoc1Wvwwhcnehyc, G# hcj J# Ckeobioykyhe# 9088# Zyhcw"Phgkmkg Yfihlhcgkcn1 Zdhklhcj GhwfWzvj{# HJIK ^oyekcn Phpfy 9>7# Zoe{o1 Hwkhc Jf}flopbfcz Ihce Kcwzkzvzf# H}hklhilf1dzzp1//~~~#hjik#oyn/~oyekcn"phpfy/9088/07/78/::;4#zyhcwphgkmkg#yfihlhcgkcn#zdhklhcj/ Plfhwf goczhgz zdf hvzdoy$w+ moy kcmoybhzkoc hiovz zdkw phpfy#Fbhkl1gdhlocnp@zjyk#oy#zd5 jfvcjfc@zjyk#oy#zdGdhlocnpdoi Wvwwhcnehyc hcj Jfvcjfc Ckeobioykyhe hyf, yfwpfgzk}fl{, jkwzkcnvkwdfjmfllo~ hcj yfwfhygd jkyfgzoy $Fgocobkg No}fychcgf+ om zdf Zdhklhcj Jf}flopbfczYfwfhygd Kcwzkzvzf $ZJYK+# Zdf phpfy ~hw pyfphyfj moy zdf gocmfyfcgf oc Zyhcw"PhgkmkgYfihlhcgkcn, oynhckqfj aokczl{ i{ zdf Hwkhc Jf}flopbfcz Ihce Kcwzkzvzf $HJIK+ hcj zdfIyooekcnw Kcwzkzvzkoc, dflj kc Zoe{o oc 7‗: Bhygd 9080#Zdf }kf~w ftpyfwwfj kc zdkw phpfy hyf zdf }kf~w om zdf hvzdoyw hcj jo coz cfgfwwhykl{yfmlfgz zdf }kf~w oy polkgkfw om zdf ZJYK, oy zdf Hwkhc Jf}flopbfcz Ihce $HJI+, kzw Iohyjom No}fycoyw, oy zdf no}fycbfczw zdf{ yfpyfwfcz# HJI jofw coz nvhyhczff zdf hggvyhg{om zdf jhzh kcglvjfj kc zdkw phpfy hcj hggfpzw co yfwpocwkiklkz{ moy hc{ gocwfxvfcgfw omzdfky vwf# Zdf govczykfw lkwzfj kc zdkw pyfwfczhzkoc jo coz kbpl{ hc{ }kf~ oc HJI.w phyz hwzo wo}fyfkncz{ oy kcjfpfcjfcz wzhzvw oy cfgfwwhykl{ gocmoyb zo HJI.w zfybkcolon{#Hwkhc Jf}flopbfcz Ihce KcwzkzvzfEhwvbknhwfek Ivkljkcn 4M7"9"6 Ehwvbknhwfek, Gdk{ojh"evZoe{o 800"=004, AhphcZfl1 %48"7"76;7"6600Mht1 %48"7"76;7"66>8VYL1 ~~~#hjik#oynF"bhkl1 kcmo@hjik#oyn« 9088 Hwkhc Jf}flopbfcz Ihce Kcwzkzvzf
 
HJIK ^oyekcn Phpfy 9>7 Wvwwhcnehyc hcj Ckeobioykyhe
Hiwzyhgz
Wkcgf zdf Hwkhc mkchcgkhl gykwkw kc 8;;>, Zdhklhcj dhw ifgobf dkndl{ jfpfcjfcz oc ftpoyz hwzdf fcnkcf om fgocobkg yfgo}fy{ hcj nyo~zd# Kc 9004, zdf yhzko om ftpoyz zo nyoww jobfwzkgpyojvgz $NJP+ ~hw >=#6&# Zdf nloihl fgocobkg gykwkw zyknnfyfj i{ zdf wvi"pykbf lohcwjfihglf kc zdf Vckzfj Wzhzfw dhw pyobpzfj Zdhklhcj zo yfzdkce dfy ftpoyz"lfj nyo~zdwzyhzfn{# [fhy"oc"{fhy ftpoyz nyo~zd plvcnfj myob h powkzk}f 99#>& kc zdf zdkyj xvhyzfy om9004 zo h cfnhzk}f >#>6& kc zdf movyzd xvhyzfy hcj yfbhkcfj cfnhzk}f moy hcozdfy movyxvhyzfyw, lfhjkcn zo h cfnhzk}f nyo~zd om NJP moy mk}f gocwfgvzk}f xvhyzfyw#Zdkw phpfy fthbkcfw zdf opzkocw moy ftzfychl hcj kczfychl fgocobkg yfihlhcgkcn wzyhzfnkfwmoy Zdhklhcj# Ftzfychl yfihlhcgkcn ~kll yfxvkyf Zdhklhcj zo yfl{ lfww oc zdf VW bhyefz moy dfyftpoyzw# Zdf phpfy zdvw fthbkcfw zdf powwkiklkz{ om pyobozkcn nyfhzfy yfnkochl zyhjf i{bfhcw om zyhjf hnyffbfczw hcj ftgdhcnf yhzf gooyjkchzkoc# Hw moy kczfychl yfihlhcgkcn, zdfphpfy fbpdhwkqfw zdf cffj zo ioowz jobfwzkg pvilkg hcj pyk}hzf kc}fwzbfcz kc zfybw om iozdxvhczkz{ hcj xvhlkz{ kc oyjfy zo chyyo~ zdf gvyyfcz wh}kcnw‗kc}fwzbfcz nhp, ifhykcn kc bkcjzdf cffj zo fcwvyf mkwghl wvwzhkchiklkz{# Mkchll{, zdf phpfy fthbkcfw iyohjfy yfihlhcgkcnwzyhzfnkfw zdhz ~kll dflp Zdhklhcj zo ifgobf lfww jfpfcjfcz oc ftpoyzw# Zdfwf kcglvjf zdfcffj zo $8+ kbpyo}f pyojvgzk}kz{ i{ bfhcw om zfgdcolonkghl hgxvkwkzkoc, kcco}hzkoc, hcj wekllwjf}flopbfcz5 $9+ kcgyfhwf fgocobkg fmmkgkfcg{ i{ ftpowkcn zdf coc"zyhjfj wfgzoyw, kcphyzkgvlhy zdf wfy}kgf wfgzoy, zo nyfhzfy gobpfzkzk}f pyfwwvyfw5 $7+ jffpfc zdf pyojvgzkocwzyvgzvyf hcj gyfhzf cf~ j{chbkg kcjvwzykfw5 hcj $:+ nfcfyhzf cf~ nyo~zd polfw#
AFL Glhwwkmkghzkoc1 F98, F99, F=6, F==, M78, M:0, D6:, D=0

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->