under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and urkey under Prime Minister Recep ayyip Erdoğan chose toplay a more active diplomatic role on the Iran nuclearstando — much to the consternation o the UnitedStates and Europe — and Erdoğan has boldly suggestedestablishing a more equal relationship between Europeand urkey.
India has become a critical player in globalnegotiations related to climate change, nuclear disarma-ment, and world trade, i only as a potent veto wielder,and it has joined eight other developing countries asmembers o the G20. China, meanwhile, has been mostactive in its bilateral dealings in its neighborhood andbeyond, with its convening o 48 Arican heads o stateat the 2006 China-Arica summit in Beijing and recentreports that it had surpassed the World Bank as a lenderto developing states being but two examples o its nowconsiderable diplomatic clout.
Tis so-called “rise o the rest” presents the United Statesand its allies in the West with a troublesome dilemma.
On one hand, an institutional ocus would suggestimmediately incorporating these new players into extantsystems o global governance so as to more accurately reect the distribution o power and strengthen inter-national cooperative mechanisms. o a certain degree,this has been done on the economic side. Te G20 nowlargely overshadows the G8 as the primary internationaleconomic summit, while at last year’s spring meetings o the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, thevoting shares o China, India, and Brazil — among others— were increased. Te challenge on the political side,however, is to ensure that the inclusion o new actorswill, in act, contribute to the continuity and efcacy o international norms. Jorge Castañeda, the ormer oreignminister o Mexico, has voiced concerns on this score,pointing to the poor human rights records o severalemerging powers and their close relations with unsavory regimes as reasons to exclude them rom various interna-tional high tables or the time being.
But i the West wereto continue to resist or deny these new global players aplace at the high table on the grounds o maintaining thepurported sanctity o institutions, there is every likeli-hood that the entire global system — which the Westcreated and careully nurtured over the past hal century
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, “The Robust Man of Europe,”
, January 17, 2011.
Geoff Dyer, Jamil Anderlini, and Henry Sender, “China’s Lending Hits New Heights,”
The Financial Times
, January 17, 2011.
The Post-American World
(New York: W.W. Norton, 2008).
Jorge G. Castaneda, “Not Ready for the Prime Time,”
, September/October 2010.
— may be jeopardized. Te West now aces a choice:should it let players or principles determine the worldorder o the 21
“Do Not Pass Go”: New Rules or a New Game?
It might help to compare the international system tothe board game Monopoly. Both are characterized by multiple players, limited resources and inuence, andriendly but intense competition. In both cases, thereare variants, but as long as the rules are agreed to at theoutset, the game can be played to everyone’s satisaction(i not always to their benet). Te international systemtoday is a long-running game whose main players are theUnited States, the major member states o the EuropeanUnion, and Japan, and to a certain degree China andRussia. India, Brazil, urkey, and others want to join,but their inclusion would necessitate a consolidation o weaker players to make room or new ones and exibleredistributions o power, but ultimately the same set o rules in an altered game. Te alternative is worse. As thepower o these emerging economies grows, so will theirrustrations at being excluded. And the risk is that thesenew players may start a new game o their own, excludingcertain long-established powers, such as member states o the European Union.Te implications o a competing new system would bemonumentally destabilizing, even i some may benet.At the very least, the uncertainty o a new system iscause or collective concern. History suggests thatmomentous transitions — those resulting in new inter-national political orders — have always been tumultuous,ollowing destructive conict and the utter collapse o anearlier system. Te Westphalian order that establishedmodern conceptions o sovereignty and nation-statehood
The challenge is to ensure thatthe inclusion of new actorswill, in fact, contribute to the
continuity and efcacy of