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Demographic Change and Progressive PoliticalStrategy in France:Defining a Coalition for 2012?
Terra Nova task force, initiated by Alain Richardwith Olivier Ferrand and Bruno Jeanbart. AlainBergounioux, Gérard Le Gall, Romain Prudent(rapporteur) and Etienne Schweisguth participatedin the task force.
Text translated by Daniel MendelsohnCharts and tables translated by Alice Bonnet and Iris Delahaye
 
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Table of Contents
Introduction1. The Left : the last legs of a well worn electoral machine1.1. The demise of the labor coalitionThe electoral strategy of the left has always rested on the shoulders of the working-classVanishing workers: a shrinking working-classThe less the electorate leans toward the left: the less they vote accordinglyFragmentation of the working-class1.2. The grounds for divorce: changing values1.3. A similar trend in other Western democracies2. A modern coalition in a process of structural renewal2.1.The new electoral face of the leftGraduatesYoung peopleMinoritiesThe female voteNon-denominational votersThe Urban vote2.2.Limitations of the left-wing electoral allianceThe elderly, indispensable for electoral success?The working-class: gone forever?Middle Class Uncertainty2.3. Electoral stakes : the new face of the French leftA profound upheaval at the heart of the electorateThe identity of the new left : the France of tomorrowThe central problem: the new left, a minority voting block3. Defining an election strategy for 2012?3.1. The “France of Tomorrow” Strategy3.2. Complementary strategy “Middle Class”3.3. Complementary strategy “Working Class”3.4. The strategy of the impossible: shifting the elderly vote
 
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Contents
In Europe, as in North America, mainstream left parties are in crisis. Of course, there areideological reasons. But sociological factors matter too: the historical coalition of the left wascentered on the working-class and is now on its last legs. In France, a new coalition isemerging: “the France of tomorrow”. This is a younger, more diverse, more feminine, moreeducated, urban and secular electorate. In short, a culturally progressive electorate. Thosepeople are “outsiders” in a socioeconomic system; as new entrants they have been sacrificedto protect the “insiders”. Those people need the State in order to break the glass ceiling.The left must now rely on this new “natural” electorate. As it is still evolving, it does notrepresent a majority yet. So, which new electoral strategy should the left work on for 2012?This report is the work of a task force, which was initiated by Alain Richard with Olivier Ferrand and Bruno Jeanbart. Alain Bergounioux, Gérard Le Gall, Romain Prudent(rapporteur) and Etienne Schweisguth participated in the task force.Jenny Andersson, Anthony Giddens, Hervé Le Bras, Ernst Stetter and Vincent Tiberj wereinterviewed.This sociology exercise has run simultaneously in several countries, on the initiative of theCenter for American Progress (United States) and the Foundacion Ideas (Spain). Restitutionwill take place in Madrid, on the 7th of April, 2011.
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