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Published by Masha Hupalo

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Published by: Masha Hupalo on Apr 07, 2011
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Executive Editor 
Dening and accelerating the business o sustainability.
© 2010 GreenBiz Group Inc. (www.greenbizgroup.com). May be reproduced or noncommercialpurposes only, provided credit is given to GreenBiz Group Inc. and includes this copyright notice.
Researched and Written by Rob Watson
For GreenBiz Group:
Joel Makower, Chairman and Executive EditorMatthew Wheeland, Managing EditorLeslie Guevarra, Associate EditorPete May, Chie Executive OcerEric Faurot, President and Chie StrategistSamuel Smith, Marketing ManagerInographics by Seth Fields
Thanks to Our Sponsors:
© 2010 GreenBiz Group Inc. (www.greenbizgroup.com). May be reproduced ornoncommercial purposes only, provided credit is given to GreenBiz Group Inc.and includes this copyright notice.
© 2010 GreenBiz Group Inc. (www.greenbizgroup.com). May be reproduced or noncommercialpurposes only, provided credit is given to GreenBiz Group Inc. and includes this copyright notice.
Conounded Expectations Redux 
We’re really wearing this one out, usingit two years in a row, but there’s just no way around it… The great Americanphilosopher Yogi Berra once noted: “It’s tough to make predictions, especiallyabout the uture.” In 2009, we assumed that the phenomenal growth we hadseen the previous three years was not abnormal (even though it exceeded thetotal new foor area added in the US last year) and would somehow continue insome ashion going orward. Clearly, economic realities proved us wrong.Our predictions o continued strong growth in LEED registrations werecompletely turned on their head as 2010 brought precipitous declines.Nonetheless, our certications orecast remain steadast: we came close with lastyear’s total foor area prediction, though LEED New Construction and LEED Core& Shell did not grow as much as anticipated.
New Certications Break Records, but Falls Short o Registration Boom
There is good news on the certication ront: This year’s total certied foor areanearly equals the previous ten years’ certied foor area combined. Last year,LEED or Existing Buildings Operations and Maintenance (EBOM) certied hal (49 percent) o all the domestic foor area in the LEED system and a quartero the international projects to equal the certied foor area o LEED or NewConstruction (NC) and LEED or Core & Shell (CS) combined.Also, given that certications almost equaled registrations this year, even moreimpressive is that certied newly-built LEED foor area exceeded 20 percent o new construction additions. All this notwithstanding, in order to keep pace withearlier registration rates, certications were going to have to triple instead o only double. So, the sad result is that the percent o LEED projects “graduating”to certication ell below the 70 percent goal that we believe represents ahealthy graduation rate.
Appropriately Mixed Metaphors: Registrations Tank, but Is that Really SoBad?
Any “green lieboat” we were positing last year was simply a mirage.The spike o registrations most likely was some sort o panic or “irrationalexuberance” driven by the sunsetting o Version 2.2 or some last-ditch gambitto somehow ride the green wave into nancing or whatever.Our year-end orecast o LEED registrations has them down almost 70 percentcompared to last year (NC and CS are o 80 percent and 90 percent in the U.S.respectively). As bad as that sounds, these lower registration numbers actuallyrepresent about 22 percent o the total expected new foor area to be addedthis year, which puts LEED near the top o its anticipated ull market saturationpoint o 25 percent o new construction.
LEED EB is the Certication Champion, CI Mirrors LEED Overall
In 2010LEED EBOM certied almost 50 percent more foor area—over 80 million squareeet—than did LEED NC, growing nearly 80 percent year on year. Cumulatively,since its launch in 2004, LEED EBOM has certied nearly the same total foorarea as LEED NC since its launch in 2000. In spite o this success, we believethat LEED EBOM is less than halway to where it needs to be to sucientlycontribute to minimizing climate change.LEED CI showed similar schizophrenia as the rest o the system, growingcertied foor area by nearly 60 percent, while registered foor area declined by65 percent.
Executive Summary

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