Advances in the

Observation and
Computer Prediction of
Severe Storms
Kelvin K. Droegemeier
School of Meteorology
Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms
University of Oklahoma

National Press Foundation Program “Understanding Violent

Weather”
26 October 2005
Everyone is Familiar With This
Person!!

Copyright © 2003 WGN-TV

Computer Models are the Primary Source
of Information for All Weather Forecasts

Copyright © 2003 WGN-TV

 Numerical Weather
Prediction

The use of computer models

of the atmosphere to
predict the weather given a
set of current observations
According to Webster…
■ pre·dict: To state, tell about, or
make known in advance, especially
on the basis of special knowledge.
 According to
Meteorologists…
■ pre·dict: To state, tell about, or
make known in advance, trying not
to lie and always keeping the coin
concealed from curious onlookers.
 The Prediction Process
Observe the Atmosphere

Identify and Apply

Compare and Verify

Physical Laws

Create a Mathematical
Model

Create and Run a

Computer Model

Analyze Results
 The Prediction Process
Observe the Atmosphere

Identify and Apply

Compare and Verify

Physical Laws

Create a Mathematical
Model

Create and Run a

Computer Model

Analyze Results
 Observe the Atmosphere
NEXRAD
Doppler
Radar

Automated
Surface
Upper-Air Networks
Balloons

Satellites
Commercial Aircraft
 The Prediction Process
Observe the Atmosphere

Identify and Apply

Compare and Verify

Physical Laws

Create a Mathematical
Model

Create and Run a

Computer Model

Analyze Results
Identify & Apply Physical
Laws
F=ma
 The Prediction Process
Observe the Atmosphere

Identify and Apply

Compare and Verify

Physical Laws

Create a Mathematical
Model

Create and Run a

Computer Model

Analyze Results
Create a Mathematical Model
 The Prediction Process
Observe the Atmosphere

Identify and Apply

Compare and Verify

Physical Laws

Create a Mathematical
Model

Create and Run a

Computer Model

Analyze Results
Create Computer Model
Create Computer Model
 Run the Computer Model
■ Solve highly nonlinear partial differential equations
■ East/West Wind
■ North/South Wind
■ Vertical Wind
■ Temperature
■ Water Vapor
■ Cloud Water
■ Precipitating Water
■ Cloud Ice
■ Graupel
■ Hail
■ Surface Temperature
■ Surface Moisture
■ Soil Temperature
■ Soil Moisture
■ Sub-Grid Turbulence
 Run the Computer Model

■ Over the course of a single forecast, the computer

model solves billions of
equations
■ Requires the fastest
supercomputers in the
world -- capable of
performing trillions of
calculations
each second
 More Power!!!

■ Finer resolution allows the model to capture

more detail
■ Requires more computer power
– doubling the number of grid boxes in 3-D increases the
computer requirements by a factor of 16!
 The Prediction Process
Observe the Atmosphere

Identify and Apply

Compare and Verify

Physical Laws

Create a Mathematical
Model

Create and Run a

Computer Model

Analyze Results
 Analyze the
Results/Compare/Verify
In the Beginning… ENIAC
 ENIAC Versus Today

■ Weighed 30 tons
■ Had 18,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500
relays thousands of resistors,
capacitors, inductors
■ Peak speed of 5000 adds/second and
300 multiplies/sec
■ A 1.2 GHz Pentium IV processor is
500,000 times faster than the ENIAC
■ A desktop PC with 1 Gbyte of RAM
can store 5 million times as much
data as the ENIAC
1950: The First Computer Weather
Forecast Model

450 Miles
Today’s Models
A Typical Forecast From Today’s
Models
What Causes the Major
Problems?
Why the Lack of Detail in the
Model?

This Thunderstorm
Falls Through the Cracks
Why the Lack of Detail in the
Model?
 A Foundational Question

. . . explicitly predict this

type of weather?

Can computer forecast

technology. . .
 Would This Capability Be
Useful?
■ Intense local weather causes economic losses in the US that average
$300 M per week
■ Over 30% of the $10 trillion US economy is impacted each year
■ Commercial aviation loses $1-2 B per year due to diversions, delays,
and cancellations (one diverted flight costs $150K)
■ Agriculture losses exceed $10 B/year
Dutton (2002)
Dutton (2002)
Actual Losses – Extreme Events

Pielke and Carbone (2002)

 Specific Examples
■ Cargo shipping
Most expeditious route can save $40,000 per voyage – thousands of ships travel continuously!
–
Examples
–
■ High temperature and humidity can cause grain to germinate in cargo holds
■ Ships affected differently by wavelength of ocean swells

■ Commercial aviation
Single diversion averages $10,000 per domestic flight
–
Not unusual for one carrier to have 70 diversions at a hub for a single weather event (1-2 hours)
–
Cost is $700,000 per event
–
Industry loses $1-2 B per year due to weather
–

Source: Weathernews, Inc.

About 50% of the loss is deemed preventable with better forecasts!
 A Great Toll in Human
Life
■ 876 deaths annually due to severe
weather
■ 7000+ weather-related traffic fatalities
■ 450,000 weather-related traffic injuries
 Model
Global Types
(2 weeks)
 Model
Global Types
(2 weeks)

Continental
(few days)
 Model
Global Types
(2 weeks)

Continental
(few days)

Special
 Model
Global Types
(2 weeks)

Operational
Continental
(few days)

Special
 Model
Global Types
(2 weeks)

Continental
(few days)

Regional
(day)
Special
Local
(few hours) Experimental
Trends in Large-Scale Forecast Skill

Increasing Skill
 Crossing the Divide
■ For global models, the
predictability increases for all
resolvable scales as the
spatial resolution increases
– The improvement is bounded
– Going finer than a few 10s of km
in grid spacing gives little payoff
■ The next quantum leap in NWP
will come when we start
resolving explicitly the most 60 km 30 km
energetic weather features,
e.g., individual convective 30 km 10 km
storms in 3-D
10 km 1 km
Importance of Finer Grid Spacing in Models

512 km

Courtesy NCAR
256 km
128 km
64 km
32 km
16 km
8 km
 4 km

Each improvement requires 10X computer resources, total increase of 10,000,000!

 Where Are We Today?
■ Tremendous advances are being made in the computer-based prediction
of high-impact local weather, such as thunderstorms, owing to
– Increases in computer power and networking capacity
– Affordability of computers
– Availability of fine-scale observations (NEXRAD Doppler radar)
– Improved understanding of the atmosphere
– Societal need, especially that of weather impacted industries (aviation, energy,
recreation, defense)
Example : March 28, 2000 Fort
Worth Tornadic Storms
Tornado
 CDT
No Explicit Evidence of Precipitation in North
Texas
Radar 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm

Hourly Radar Observations

(Fort Worth Shown by the Pink Star)
Radar
Computer Forecast 6 pm 7 pm 8 pm

2 hr 3 hr 4 hr
7 pm
As a Forecaster
Worried About
This Reality…
7 pm As a Forecaster
Worried About
This Reality…

3 hr
How Much
Trust Would
You Place in
This Model
Forecast?
Uncertainty
■ We never know the complete state of the
atmosphere everywhere, with perfect accuracy
■ Small observation errors can grow with time in a
forecast (chaos)
■ Rather than run a single forecast from one estimate
of the current conditions, we run several based
upon equally plausible initial conditions to account
for observational uncertainty
■ This is “ensemble forecasting”
Actual Radar
Forecast #1 Actual Radar Forecast #2

Forecast #3 Forecast #4 Forecast #5

Probability of Intense Precipitation

Model Forecast Radar Observations

MUCH MORE Computing Power is
Required!!
Forecast #1

Forecast #2

Forecast #3

Forecast #50
Recent Real Time Experimental Forecasts
Run by OU for the National Weather
Service

Actual Radar Observations

Recent Real Time Experimental Forecasts
Run by OU for the National Weather
Service

24 Hour Forecast Actual Radar Observations

 A Foundational Question

. . . explicitly predict this

type of weather?
The Answer Appears to be “Yes,” But New
Methodologies May Be Needed…

Can computer forecast

technology. . .
Predicting Storms and Anticipating
Tornadoes Requires Fine-Scale
Observations
NEXRAD Doppler Radar Network
Current Operational Radar System in
US
NEXRAD Doppler Radar Network
 The Limitations of NEXRAD
#1. Operates largely independent
of the prevailing weather conditions

#3. Operates entirely independent from

the models and algorithms that use its
data

#2. Earth’s curvature prevents 72% of the atmosphere below 1

km from being observed
The Consequence

NEXRAD

Source: NWS Office of Science and Technology

 New NSF Engineering
Research Center for
Adaptive Sensing of the
Atmosphere (CASA)
■ UMass/Amherst, OU, CSU, UPRM
■ Concept: inexpensive, phased array Doppler radars on
cell towers and buildings
■ Dynamically adaptive dynamic sensing of multiple
targets while simultaneously meeting multiple end-user
needs
Oklahoma Test Bed: Spring 2006
The $1M Question: Will Numerical Models Ever Be Able to Predict Tornadoes?
Schematic Diagram of a Supercell Storm (C. Doswell)
 The Future
■ The National Weather Service will begin running models to explicitly
predict thunderstorms
■ Private companies will
play a major role in
providing customized
numerical forecasts for
weather-sensitive
industries, especially
energy and aviation
 The Future
■ Human forecasters will continue to
be essential, though with changing
roles
Contact Information

Kelvin K. Droegemeier
University of Oklahoma
Sarkeys Energy Center, Suite 1110
100 East Boyd Street
Norman, OK 73019
Email: kkd@ou.edu
Phone: 405-325-0453
Fax: 405-325-7614
Mobile: 405-413-7847