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,
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".
-
.
INFOMEMO
JUN
072004
1-04/006916
ef-f'6
5
'J
'-'j,,'.\
FOR:SECRETARYOFDEFENSE
;::1
FROM:RyanHenry,PrincipalDeputyUnderSecretary
of
DefenseforSUBJECT:"WhatDidNotHappen?"(U)Youaskedforalist
of
thethingsforwhichweplanned
in
OperationIRAQf'f<REEDOMthatdidnothappen.
"It
Turkey,Iran,
or
Israelare
drawn
intotheconflict
or
becometooadventurous.
"It
SaddamusesWMDagainstU.S.
or
alliedforces.
"It
SaddamattacksIsrael;Israelretaliates.
..
Iraqdescendsintoanarchy.
..
Iraqbecomesbalkanized.
"It
Thereisaprisoner
of
war
or
hostagecrisis.
..
SaddamusesWMDagainstrebelliousareasinIraq.
..
U.S.forcespursuehighvaluetargetsintoSyria
or
Iran.,
..
Thereiswidespreadvigilantejustice.
DECLASSIFIED
AUT!-l0R!TV
F0
12958
JAN
242008
Hel.
UeciasS
Br
?,
<,
"'C
Oi\,
WHS
•
'
1<.,>
,>.
.••
Classified
by
DUSD
NESA
Denved
from
multJple
sources.
Declassify
on:
XlPrepared
by'
8,11
8ntncr,
NESA,692-49Q6
OSD
77862-04
08-M-1505
 
•
·'
Shi'a
holysitesaredamagedordestroyed.Therearemassfoodshortages.
..
Therearelargenumbers
of
internallydisplacedpeopleandinternationalrefugees."FortressBaghdad"holdsoutindefinitely.TherearemassIraqicasualties.Theoilinfrastructureisseverelydamagedordestroyed.Disruption
of
oilproductioncauseswidespreadeconomicproblems.Anotherstate(e.g.NorthKorea)takesadvantage
of
U.S.focusonIraq.
..
Saddam'sintelligenceservicesconductunconventionalstrikesagainstU.S.forcesintheMiddleEast
or
elsewhere.
..
WeareunabletofindSaddam.-Saddamescapes.
..
U.S.focusonIraqweakensGWOTeffortsworldwide;terroristsattackbroadly.
..
Thereisadramaticsurgeinterroristrecruitment.
..
SaddamisabletopersuadetheworldthattheU.S.iswagingawaronIslam.
..
Arevolt
of
the"Arabstreet"inPakistan,SaudiArabia,
or
Jordancausespoliticalinstability.
cam
DECLASSIFIEO958
AUTI-10RI1'Y
EO
12
'JAN
24200&
Chlet,
oeclas&o'v
lJir.
&
Ree.
I,
08-M-1505
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