Z@L OH\VBMI HA LBLVC^MBJ JLQLIHTGLBZ
Glinel Fnijnvnkn) Liãnb M~emã Mit)
mbj Zm`{nb Fmenvzm{)
’
Z`l Cvlmz Vlkl{{nhb ha 6440 mbj Hni Tvnkl{)
‗
Qhi|gl ;<) B|gflv =
Kht~vnc`z
®
64==
sss"nkllj"hvc
Z@L CVLMZ VLKL[[NHB HA 6440 MBJ HNI TVNKL[
Glinel Fnijnvnkn) Lik
p
nb M~emk
p
Mit) mbj Zm`{nb Fmenvzm{
/
Nbzvhj|kznhb
Z
`n{ {z|j~ `m{ zsh {ltmvmzl t|vth{l{" Z`l anv{z hbl n{ zh lptimnb z`l anbmbknmikvn{n{ ha 6440 mbj z`l {lkhbj n{ zh ngtvhql |thb z`l @mb{lb mbj [lh z`vl{`hij m|zhvlcvl{{nhb (ZMV. khnbzlcvmznhb ghjli" Z`l 6440 cvlmz vlkl{{nhb `m{ ahvklj gmb~ lkhbhgn{z{ zh k`mbcl z`lnv tlv{tlkznql{ mbj mbmi~l lkhbhgnk hkk|vvlbkl{ fm{lj |thb m qmvnlz~ ha el~ amkzhv{5 ahv nb{zmbkl) {hgl ha z`l lkhbhgn{z{ lg' t`m{nl k|vvlbz fmimbkl jlanknz) s`nil hz`lv{ timkl cvlmzlv ngthvzmbkl hb ghvzcmclkvljnz{" Lkhbhgnk qnls{ v|b z`l cmg|z ha s`mz slvl z`l |bjlvi~nbc km|{l{ ha z`l 6440 anbmbknmi glizjhsb" K" G|iincmb mbj I" Z`vlnblb khb{njlv z`l 6440 kvn{n{
/Glinel Fnijnvnkn) Tvhal{{hv mz z`l ^nijn Zlk`bnkmi \bnqlv{nz~ nb N{zmbf|i) Z|vel~) `hij{ m F"["avhg Gmvgmvm \bnqlv{nz~ (N{zmbf|i. mbj lmvblj fhz` `n{ G"M" mbj T`"J" jlcvll{ nb lkhbhgnk{ avhgz`mznb{znz|znhb"Jv"Fnijnvnkn„{{z|jnl{`mqlmttlmvljnb{|k`t|finkmznhb{m{
Z`lOh|vbmihaLblvc~mbj Jlqlihtglbz) Lptlvz [~{zlg{ snz` Mttinkmznhb{) Mttinlj Lkhbhglzvnk{ mbj Nbzlvbmznhbmi Jlqliht'glbz) Nbzlvbmznhbmi Oh|vbmi ha Mttinlj Lkhbhglzvnk{ mbj ]|mbznzmznql [z|jnl{) Oh|vbmi ha Lkhbhgnkmbj [hknmi Vl{lmvk`) GLZ\ [z|jnl{ nb Jlqlihtglbz) ^ELV) Nezn{mz) N{ilzgl mbj Anbmb{) Lehbhgne ^meim{
p
Ľ
g)
mbj
^lbn Z| ven~l"
Lik
p
nb M~emk
p
Mit) M{{n{zmbz Tvhal{{hv mz Hemb \bnqlv{nz~ nb N{zmbf|i) Z|vel~) `hij{ m F"[" mbj mbG"M" jlcvll nb lkhbhglzvnk{ avhg Gmvgmvm \bnqlv{nz~5 {`l vlklnqlj m T`"J" nb lkhbhgnk{ avhg^nijn Zlk`bnkmi \bnqlv{nz~" Z`l m|z`hv„{ t|finkmznhb{ `mql mttlmvlj nb
Z`l Oh|vbmi ha Lblvc~ mbj Jlqlihtglbz) Mavnkmb Oh|vbmi ha F|{nbl{{ Gmbmclglbz
)
Lptlvz [~{zlg{ snz` Mttinkmznhb{) Mttinlj Lkhbhglzvnk{ mbj Nbzlvbmznhbmi Jlqlihtglbz) Nbzlvbmznhbmi Oh|vbmi ha Mttinlj Lkhbhglzvnk{ mbj ]|mbznzmznql [z|jnl{)
mbj
Nezn{mz) N{ilzgl mbj Anbmb{)
m{ m {mgtinbc"Zm`{nb Fmenvzm{) M{{hknmzl Tvhal{{hv nb z`l Jltmvzglbz ha Lkhbhgnk{ mz [memv~m \bnqlv{nz~(Z|vel~.) lmvblj m F"[" nb lkhbhgnk{) mb G"M" jlcvll nb lkhbhgnk jlqlihtglbz) mbj m T`"J" nb z`l{mgl jn{kntinbl avhg Gmvgmvm \bnqlv{nz~" Z`l m|z`hv„{ mvznkil{ `mql mttlmvlj nb
Z`l Oh|vbmi ha Lblvc~ mbj Jlqlihtglbz) GLZ\ [z|jnl{ nb Jlqlihtglbz) Mttinlj Lkhbhglzvnk{ mbj Nbzlvbmznhbmi Jlqlihtglbz
) mbj
Nezn{mz) N{ilzgl mbj Anbmb{"Z`l Oh|vbmi ha Lblvc~ mbj Jlqlihtglbz
) Qhi" ;<) Bh{" = mbj 6Kht~vnc`z
Û
64== f~ z`l Nbzlvbmznhbmi Vl{lmvk` Klbzlv ahv Lblvc~ mbj Lkhbhgnk Jlqlihtglbz(NKLLJ." Mii vnc`z{ vl{lvqlj"
=
m{ lglvcnbc avhg m `h|{nbc tvnkl kvm{` z`mz flcmb nb 6441"
=
M" Gnmb) M" [|an)mbj A" Zvlffn khgglbz z`mz ‐‐ghvzcmcl jlam|iz kvn{n{„„ n{ z`l {h|vkl) s`nil C"Jlii„Mvnkkn) J" Ncmb) mbj I" Imlqlb m{{lvz z`mz z`l vlkl{{nhb sm{ j|l zh m kvljnzlptmb{nhb kvn{n{"
6
Mkkhvjnbc zh T" Gnlb) z`l kvn{n{ kmb fl nbzlvtvlzlj m{ m ‐‐kvljnzkv|bk`"„„
;
Mb mizlvbmznql z`lhv~) haalvlj f~ E" Mvvhs) thnbz{ zh z`l zlb{nhb flzsllb‐‐smbznbc zh {tvlmj vn{e mbj bhz smbznbc zh mkkltz z`l khb{l}|lbkl{„„ m{ m kvnznkmijvnqlv ha z`l k|vvlbz anbmbknmi kvn{n{"
:
M" Tlv{m|j mbj O" Jmbnli{{hb fhz` smvb mcmnb{zz`l hqlvvlinmbkl hb {zmbjmvjnlj }|mbznzmznql vn{e ghjli{"
<
K" S~tih{) nb z|vb)kh|b{li{ tv|jlbkl s`lb mbmi~nbc z`l kvn{n{ mbj nz{ km|{l{ nb z`l amkl ha `nc` |b'klvzmnbz~"
1
H|v htnbnhb n{ z`mz z`l lpmgnbmznhb ha z`l 6440 cvlmz vlkl{{nhb snz`nb z`lavmglshve ha cvh{{ jhgl{znk tvhj|kz (CJT.) hni tvnkl{) f|jclz jlanknz{) mbj k|vvlbzjlanknz{‚s`nilamkzhvnbcnbghvzcmclvmzl{mbjlpk`mbclvmzl{‚n{mi{hnii|gnbmznbc"Nbz`lahiihsnbc{lkznhb{)z`l6440cvlmzvlkl{{nhbsniifllpmgnbljnbkhgtmvn{hbsnz` tvlqnh|{ anbmbknmi kvn{l{" Z`n{ {z|j~ |zninl{ mb lkhbhglzvnk glz`hj‚z`lz`vl{`hij m|zhvlcvl{{nql |bnz vhhz (ZMV |bnz vhhz. mbj z`l z`vl{`hij m|zhvlcvl{{nqlkhnbzlcvmznhb (ZMV khnbzlcvmznhb.‚zh m{{l{{ z`l cihfmi anbmbknmi kvn{n{"
Z`l 6440 Cvlmz Vlkl{{nhb mbj Inzlvmz|vl hb Hni Kvn{l{
Lpmgnbmznhb ha z`l 6440 cvlmz vlkl{{nhb snz`nb z`l avmglshve ha CJT) hni tvnkl{) f|jclz mbj k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{) mbj ghvzcmcl mbj lpk`mbcl vmzl{ n{lptihvlj nb z`n{ tmtlv" S`nil mkmjlgnk vl{lmvk` hb hni tvnkl{ mbj z`lnv laalkz{ hbcihfmi lkhbhgnk{ mvl bhz bls) sl anbj z`mz z`l shve{ haalv jnaalvlbz m{{lvznhb{){hglzngl{ khbzvmjnkzhv~ nb bmz|vl" Hni tvnkl {`hke{ `mql fllb z`l zhtnk ha {z|j~{nbkl z`l anv{z hni kvn{n{ nb z`l lmvi~=>34{) f|z z`l gmohvnz~ ha z`l{l shve{ ahk|{lj migh{z lpki|{nqli~ hb z`l gmkvhlkhbhgnk ngtmkz{" M{ O" @mgnizhb {zmzl{) lphc'lbh|{ hni tvnkl {`hke{ slvl vl{thb{nfil ahv z`l th{z'smv \"[" vlkl{{nhb{"
3
F"Flvbmbel) G" Clvzilv) mbj G" Smz{hb `mql jlghb{zvmzlj z`mz gmkvhlkhbhgnklaalkz{ ha hni tvnkl{ slvl mccvmqmzlj f~ ngtvhtlv ghblzmv~ think~ jlkn{nhb{"
0
H"Fimbk`mvj mbj O" Cmin lptimnblj z`l hf{lvqlj k`mbcl nb z`l laalkz{ ha z`l hni tvnkl{`hke{"
>
Z`l~ mvc|l z`mz z`l {`mvl ha hni nb tvhj|kznhb nb z`l gmohv lkhbhgnl{ `m{jlkinblj {nbkl =>34{" G" Shhjahvj m{{lvz{ z`mz z`l haalvlj lptimbmznhb{ mvl bhzkhbqnbknbc lbh|c` flkm|{l z`l~ ncbhvl z`l lbjhclbh|{ vl{thb{l{ ha z`l vlmi tvnklha hni zh z`l cihfmi lkhbhgnk khbjnznhb{"
=4
O" @mgnizhb mbj I" Eninmb {`hs z`mzcihfmi gmkvhlkhbhgnk ai|kz|mznhb{ `mql mb ngtmkz hb z`l tvnkl ha hni"
==
Z`n{ {z|j~ jnaalv{ avhg hz`lv{ z`mz mbmi~l hni {`hke{ nb qmvnh|{ sm~{" [tl'knankmii~) sl {`mii fl lqmi|mznbc hni kvn{l{ m{ m km|{l m{ slii m{ mb laalkz" Sl{|ccl{z z`mz flahvl fhz` z`l =>3: kvn{n{ mbj z`l 6440 vlkl{{nhb) z`lvl slvl gninzmv~nbzlvqlbznhb{ f~ z`l \bnzlj [zmzl{" Z`|{) j|vnbc mbj mazlv z`l \"[" gninzmv~ nb'zlvqlbznhb{) nbkvlm{l{ nb f|jclz mbj k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{ slvl {ncbnankmbz(anc|vl =." Hbl khgghb k`mvmkzlvn{znk ha z`l =>3: kvn{n{) z`l =>3> hni {`hke) mbj Z@L OH\VBMI HA LBLVC^ MBJ JLQLIHTGLBZ6
"The Great Recession of 2008 and Oil Prices" by Melike E. Bildirici, Elçin A. Alp, and Tahsin Bakiritas
In this paper, the historical dimensions and the theoretical structure of the 2008 great recession and financial crisis are assessed. An econometric analysis is presented using data from January 1971 through January 2008, the relationship between…
(More)
3.9K
Reads
3
Readcasts
0
Embed Views
More From This User
Notes
Load more
