Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword
Like this
4Activity
P. 1
"The Great Recession of 2008 and Oil Prices" by Melike E. Bildirici, Elçin A. Alp, and Tahsin Bakiritas

"The Great Recession of 2008 and Oil Prices" by Melike E. Bildirici, Elçin A. Alp, and Tahsin Bakiritas

Ratings:

5.0

(15)
|Views: 981|Likes:
In this paper, the historical dimensions and the theoretical structure of the 2008 great recession and financial crisis are assessed. An econometric analysis is presented using data from January 1971 through January 2008, the relationship between GDP, current account deficits, budget deficits, oil prices, mortgage rates, and exchange rates in the United States are examined by TAR unit root, TAR cointegration, and TVEC analysis. From The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 35, number 1, pp. 1-31, copyright 2011.
In this paper, the historical dimensions and the theoretical structure of the 2008 great recession and financial crisis are assessed. An econometric analysis is presented using data from January 1971 through January 2008, the relationship between GDP, current account deficits, budget deficits, oil prices, mortgage rates, and exchange rates in the United States are examined by TAR unit root, TAR cointegration, and TVEC analysis. From The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 35, number 1, pp. 1-31, copyright 2011.

More info:

Categories:Types, Research
Copyright:Traditional Copyright: All rights reserved

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

11/21/2012

pdf

text

original

 
 
Z@L OH\VBMI HA LBLVC^MBJ JLQLIHTGLBZ
Glinel Fnijnvnkn) Liãnb M~emã Mit)
mbj Zm`{nb Fmenvzm{)
Z`l Cvlmz Vlkl{{nhb ha 6440 mbj Hni Tvnkl{)
 Qhi|gl ;<) B|gflv =
Kht~vnc`z
®
64==
sss"nkllj"hvc
 
Z@L CVLMZ VLKL[[NHB HA 6440 MBJ HNI TVNKL[
 Glinel Fnijnvnkn) Lik
p
nb M~emk
p
Mit) mbj Zm`{nb Fmenvzm{
/
 Nbzvhj|kznhb
Z
`n{ {z|j~ `m{ zsh {ltmvmzl t|vth{l{" Z`l anv{z hbl n{ zh lptimnb z`l anbmbknmikvn{n{ ha 6440 mbj z`l {lkhbj n{ zh ngtvhql |thb z`l @mb{lb mbj [lh z`vl{`hij m|zhvlcvl{{nhb (ZMV. khnbzlcvmznhb ghjli" Z`l 6440 cvlmz vlkl{{nhb `m{ ahvklj gmb~ lkhbhgn{z{ zh k`mbcl z`lnv tlv{tlkznql{ mbj mbmi~l lkhbhgnk hkk|vvlbkl{ fm{lj |thb m qmvnlz~ ha el~ amkzhv{5 ahv nb{zmbkl) {hgl ha z`l lkhbhgn{z{ lg' t`m{nl k|vvlbz fmimbkl jlanknz) s`nil hz`lv{ timkl cvlmzlv ngthvzmbkl hb ghvzcmclkvljnz{" Lkhbhgnk qnls{ v|b z`l cmg|z ha s`mz slvl z`l |bjlvi~nbc km|{l{ ha z`l 6440 anbmbknmi glizjhsb" K" G|iincmb mbj I" Z`vlnblb khb{njlv z`l 6440 kvn{n{
/Glinel Fnijnvnkn) Tvhal{{hv mz z`l ^nijn Zlk`bnkmi \bnqlv{nz~ nb N{zmbf|i) Z|vel~) `hij{ m F"["avhg Gmvgmvm \bnqlv{nz~ (N{zmbf|i. mbj lmvblj fhz` `n{ G"M" mbj T`"J" jlcvll{ nb lkhbhgnk{ avhgz`mznb{znz|znhb"Jv"Fnijnvnkn„{{z|jnl{`mqlmttlmvljnb{|k`t|finkmznhb{m{
Z`lOh|vbmihaLblvc~mb Jlqlihtglbz) Lptlvz [~{zlg{ snz` Mttinkmznhb{) Mttinlj Lkhbhglzvnk{ mbj Nbzlvbmznhbmi Jlqliht'glbz) Nbzlvbmznhbmi Oh|vbmi ha Mttinlj Lkhbhglzvnk{ mbj ]|mbznzmznql [z|jnl{) Oh|vbmi ha Lkhbhgnkmbj [hknmi Vl{lmvk`) GLZ\ [z|jnl{ nb Jlqlihtglbz) ^ELV) Nezn{mz) N{ilzgl mbj Anbmb{) Lehbhgne ^meim{
p
Ľ
g)
mbj 
^lbn Z| ven~l"
Lik
p
nb M~emk
p
Mit) M{{n{zmbz Tvhal{{hv mz Hemb \bnqlv{nz~ nb N{zmbf|i) Z|vel~) `hij{ m F"[" mbj mbG"M" jlcvll nb lkhbhglzvnk{ avhg Gmvgmvm \bnqlv{nz~5 {`l vlklnqlj m T`"J" nb lkhbhgnk{ avhg^nijn Zlk`bnkmi \bnqlv{nz~" Z`l m|z`hv„{ t|finkmznhb{ `mql mttlmvlj nb
Z`l Oh|vbmi ha Lblvc~ mbj  Jlqlihtglbz) Mavnkmb Oh|vbmi ha F|{nbl{{ Gmbmclglbz 
)
Lptlvz [~{zlg{ snz` Mttinkmznhb{) Mttinlj  Lkhbhglzvnk{ mbj Nbzlvbmznhbmi Jlqlihtglbz) Nbzlvbmznhbmi Oh|vbmi ha Mttinlj Lkhbhglzvnk{ mbj ]|mbznzmznql [z|jnl{)
mbj 
Nezn{mz) N{ilzgl mbj Anbmb{)
m{ m {mgtinbc"Zm`{nb Fmenvzm{) M{{hknmzl Tvhal{{hv nb z`l Jltmvzglbz ha Lkhbhgnk{ mz [memv~m \bnqlv{nz~(Z|vel~.) lmvblj m F"[" nb lkhbhgnk{) mb G"M" jlcvll nb lkhbhgnk jlqlihtglbz) mbj m T`"J" nb z`l{mgl jn{kntinbl avhg Gmvgmvm \bnqlv{nz~" Z`l m|z`hv„{ mvznkil{ `mql mttlmvlj nb
Z`l Oh|vbmi ha   Lblvc~ mbj Jlqlihtglbz) GLZ\ [z|jnl{ nb Jlqlihtglbz) Mttinlj Lkhbhglzvnk{ mbj Nbzlvbmznhbmi  Jlqlihtglbz 
) mbj 
Nezn{mz) N{ilzgl mbj Anbmb{"Z`l Oh|vbmi ha Lblvc~ mbj Jlqlihtglbz 
) Qhi" ;<) Bh{" = mbj 6Kht~vnc`z
Û
64== f~ z`l Nbzlvbmznhbmi Vl{lmvk` Klbzlv ahv Lblvc~ mbj Lkhbhgnk Jlqlihtglbz(NKLLJ." Mii vnc`z{ vl{lvqlj"
=
 
m{ lglvcnbc avhg m `h|{nbc tvnkl kvm{` z`mz flcmb nb 6441"
=
M" Gnmb) M" [|an)mbj A" Zvlffn khgglbz z`mz ‐ghvzcmcl jlam|iz kvn{n{n{ z`l {h|vkl) s`nil C"Jlii„Mvnkkn) J" Ncmb) mbj I" Imlqlb m{{lvz z`mz z`l vlkl{{nhb sm{ j|l zh m kvljnzlptmb{nhb kvn{n{"
6
Mkkhvjnbc zh T" Gnlb) z`l kvn{n{ kmb fl nbzlvtvlzlj m{ m ‐‐kvljnzkv|bk`"„„
;
Mb mizlvbmznql z`lhv~) haalvlj f~ E" Mvvhs) thnbz{ zh z`l zlb{nhb flzsllb‐‐smbznbc zh {tvlmj vn{e mbj bhz smbznbc zh mkkltz z`l khb{l}|lbkl{„„ m{ m kvnznkmijvnqlv ha z`l k|vvlbz anbmbknmi kvn{n{"
:
M" Tlv{m|j mbj O" Jmbnli{{hb fhz` smvb mcmnb{zz`l hqlvvlinmbkl hb {zmbjmvjnlj }|mbznzmznql vn{e ghjli{"
<
K" S~tih{) nb z|vb)kh|b{li{ tv|jlbkl s`lb mbmi~nbc z`l kvn{n{ mbj nz{ km|{l{ nb z`l amkl ha `nc` |b'klvzmnbz~"
1
H|v htnbnhb n{ z`mz z`l lpmgnbmznhb ha z`l 6440 cvlmz vlkl{{nhb snz`nb z`lavmglshve ha cvh{{ jhgl{znk tvhj|kz (CJT.) hni tvnkl{) f|jclz jlanknz{) mbj k|vvlbzjlanknz{‚s`nilamkzhvnbcnbghvzcmclvmzl{mbjlpk`mbclvmzl{‚n{mi{hnii|gnbmznbc"Nbz`lahiihsnbc{lkznhb{)z`l6440cvlmzvlkl{{nhbsniifllpmgnbljnbkhgtmvn{hbsnz` tvlqnh|{ anbmbknmi kvn{l{" Z`n{ {z|j~ |zninl{ mb lkhbhglzvnk glz`hj‚z`lz`vl{`hij m|zhvlcvl{{nql |bnz vhhz (ZMV |bnz vhhz. mbj z`l z`vl{`hij m|zhvlcvl{{nqlkhnbzlcvmznhb (ZMV khnbzlcvmznhb.‚zh m{{l{{ z`l cihfmi anbmbknmi kvn{n{"
Z`l 6440 Cvlmz Vlkl{{nhb mbj Inzlvmz|vl hb Hni Kvn{l{
Lpmgnbmznhb ha z`l 6440 cvlmz vlkl{{nhb snz`nb z`l avmglshve ha CJT) hni tvnkl{) f|jclz mbj k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{) mbj ghvzcmcl mbj lpk`mbcl vmzl{ n{lptihvlj nb z`n{ tmtlv" S`nil mkmjlgnk vl{lmvk` hb hni tvnkl{ mbj z`lnv laalkz{ hbcihfmi lkhbhgnk{ mvl bhz bls) sl anbj z`mz z`l shve{ haalv jnaalvlbz m{{lvznhb{){hglzngl{ khbzvmjnkzhv~ nb bmz|vl" Hni tvnkl {`hke{ `mql fllb z`l zhtnk ha {z|j~{nbkl z`l anv{z hni kvn{n{ nb z`l lmvi~=>34{) f|z z`l gmohvnz~ ha z`l{l shve{ ahk|{lj migh{z lpki|{nqli~ hb z`l gmkvhlkhbhgnk ngtmkz{" M{ O" @mgnizhb {zmzl{) lphc'lbh|{ hni tvnkl {`hke{ slvl vl{thb{nfil ahv z`l th{z'smv \"[" vlkl{{nhb{"
3
F"Flvbmbel) G" Clvzilv) mbj G" Smz{hb `mql jlghb{zvmzlj z`mz gmkvhlkhbhgnklaalkz{ ha hni tvnkl{ slvl mccvmqmzlj f~ ngtvhtlv ghblzmv~ think~ jlkn{nhb{"
0
H"Fimbk`mvj mbj O" Cmin lptimnblj z`l hf{lvqlj k`mbcl nb z`l laalkz{ ha z`l hni tvnkl{`hke{"
>
Z`l~ mvc|l z`mz z`l {`mvl ha hni nb tvhj|kznhb nb z`l gmohv lkhbhgnl{ `m{jlkinblj {nbkl =>34{" G" Shhjahvj m{{lvz{ z`mz z`l haalvlj lptimbmznhb{ mvl bhzkhbqnbknbc lbh|c` flkm|{l z`l~ ncbhvl z`l lbjhclbh|{ vl{thb{l{ ha z`l vlmi tvnklha hni zh z`l cihfmi lkhbhgnk khbjnznhb{"
=4
O" @mgnizhb mbj I" Eninmb {`hs z`mzcihfmi gmkvhlkhbhgnk ai|kz|mznhb{ `mql mb ngtmkz hb z`l tvnkl ha hni"
==
Z`n{ {z|j~ jnaalv{ avhg hz`lv{ z`mz mbmi~l hni {`hke{ nb qmvnh|{ sm~{" [tl'knankmii~) sl {`mii fl lqmi|mznbc hni kvn{l{ m{ m km|{l m{ slii m{ mb laalkz" Sl{|ccl{z z`mz flahvl fhz` z`l =>3: kvn{n{ mbj z`l 6440 vlkl{{nhb) z`lvl slvl gninzmv~nbzlvqlbznhb{ f~ z`l \bnzlj [zmzl{" Z`|{) j|vnbc mbj mazlv z`l \"[" gninzmv~ nb'zlvqlbznhb{) nbkvlm{l{ nb f|jclz mbj k|vvlbz mkkh|bz jlanknz{ slvl {ncbnankmbz(anc|vl =." Hbl khgghb k`mvmkzlvn{znk ha z`l =>3: kvn{n{) z`l =>3> hni {`hke) mbj Z@L OH\VBMI HA LBLVC^ MBJ JLQLIHTGLBZ6

Activity (4)

You've already reviewed this. Edit your review.
1 hundred reads
1 thousand reads
caprecto2920 liked this
gino_silva_1 liked this

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->