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SusanStrouseDec

SusanStrouseDec

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local market trends
The Real Estate Report
S
ANTA
C
RUZ
C
OUNTY
 
Strouse Realty GroupAmerican Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.Scotts Valley, CA 95066(831) 338-6481Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.comhttp://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
DRE #01228878
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
 
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. | Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com | (831) 338-6481
 
Nov 10 Oct 10 Nov 09
Median Price: 550,000$ 513,873$ 550,000$ Average Price: 589,509$ 572,392$ 626,278$ Units Sold: 113 112 141Inventory: 678 748 553Sale/List Price Ratio: 97.9% 96.8% 98.1%Days on Market: 79 67 83Days of Inventory 174 200 114
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
M
ORE
 
STATISTICS
The median sales price for single-family, re-salehomes reversed course in November, after drop-ping 3.9% in October. The median price gained 7%from October.The median price was flat year-over-year.Inventory of single-family homes continued drop-ping: down 9.4% from October. Year-over-year,inventory was up for the sixth month in a row:22.6%.The sales price to list price ratio rose 0.8 of a pointto 96.8%.
I
N
 
THE
 
CONDO
 
MARKET
The median price was off 23.7% compared to lastNovember, while the average price was down4.3%.Condos sales were down 26.9% year-over-year.Pending sales, a harbinger of future sales, weredown for the third month in a row: 5.3%.Inventory, on the other hand, increased for thesixth month in a row: up 16.9% year-over-year.Sales momentum for single-family, re-sale homesin Santa Cruz County continued to drop in Novem-ber: down to –10%.
W
E
 
CALCULATE
sales momentum by using a 12-month movingaverage to eliminate seasonality. By comparing thisyear’s 12-month moving average to last year’s, weget a percentage showing market momentum.
P
RICING
 
MOMENTUM
after peaking in September at +11%, has alsostarted to drop, and is now down to +10%.
P
ENDING
 
MOMENTUM
while still positive, has also been trending down-ward. This is due, in large part, to investors leavingthe market because of concerns over who actuallyholds, and can produce, the original mortgagenote.Pending momentum peaked in July at +40%. InNovember, it was +23%.
Sales Momentum Continues to Slow
The sales price to list price ratio for condos jumped2.1 points to 99.2%.Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.For complete information on a particular neighbor-hood or property, call.
-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%05FMAMJJASOND06FMAMJJASOND07FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASON
Santa Cruz County Homes:
Sales MomentumSales Pending Median
© 2010 rereport.com
D
ECEMBER
2010/J
ANUARY
2011
Inside This Issue
>
L
OCAL
M
ARKET
T
RENDS
.....................
1
 
>
M
ORTGAGE
R
ATE
O
UTLOOK
...............
2
 
>
H
OME
S
TATISTICS
..............................
2
 
>
S
TATISTICS
: J
OB
G
ROWTH
..................
3
 
>
C
ONDO
S
TATISTICS
............................
3
 
>
C
HARTS
: S
P
/L
P
& S
ALES
YTD ...........
4
 
 
The Real Estate Report
Page 2
Mortgage Rate Outlook 
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%01-0404-0407-0410-0401-0504-0507-0510-0501-0604-0607-0610-0601-0704-0707-0710-0701-0804-0807-0810-0801-0904-0907-0910-0901-1004-1007-1010-10
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven
County ,,. % . % - . % - . - . . %Aptos ,,. % - . - . % . - . . %Capitola ,,. % . % . % - . - . . %Rio del Mar ,,. % - . - . % - . - . . %Seacliff ,,. % . % . % - . - . - .San Lorenzo Vly ,,. % - . - . % - . - . . %Soquel ,,. % . % . % . % . % . %Scotts Valley ,,. % - . - . % - . . % . %Santa Cruz ,,. % - . % - . % - . - . . %East County ,,. % . % - . % - . - . . %West County ,,. % - . - . % . - . . %Watsonville ,,. % - . - . % - . . % . %
Santa Cruz County - November 2010
Single-Family Homes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices050100150200250$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900$1,00006FMAMJJASOND07FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASON
Single-family Home SalesMedian& AveragePrices
Santa Cruz County Homes
- Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
 Strouse Realty GroupAmerican Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.Scotts Valley, CA 95066(831) 338-6481Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.comhttp://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
DRE #01228878
The chart above shows the Nationalmonthly average for 30-year fixedrate mortgages as compiled byHSH.com. The average includes mort-gages of all sizes, including conforming,"expanded conforming," and jumbo.
Dec. 3 2010
--Mortgage rates rose again this week,responding to signals of an improving economy. Onlya lackluster employment report for November keptthem from increasing further.The 10-year Treasury, a benchmark for fixed-ratemortgages, crested above 3% this week, and hasrisen nearly a half-percentage point from November'sdaily low. The yield is the highest since July, andmortgage rates are following right along. Somedreams of low-rate refinancing have come to an end,at least for the moment.HSH.com's overall mortgage tracker -- our weeklyFixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found theaverage rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages movedeight basis points higher (.08%), ending HSH.com'snational survey at 4.86%, its highest value sinceearly August. For low down payment homebuyers or refinancers with only a slight equity position, FHA-backed loans are available at an average rate of 4.52%, while the overall average rate for 5/1 HybridARMs rose three basis points to 3.66% for the week.HSH.com's public mortgage interest rate data seriesinclude rates for conforming, jumbo, and most re-cently the GSE's "high-limit" conforming products andso covers much of the mortgage-borrowing public.With the increase in rates, it's little surprise that appli-cations for new mortgages have dropped sharply,particularly for refinancing. Given what seems to bethe particularly strong interest rate sensitivity of thisrefinancing boomlet, refinancing activity will probablygrind to a halt absent a new decline in rates. Despitethe rise, rates remain at veryattractive levels, butthere simply aren't enough high-rate mortgageswhich can be successfully refinanced at these ratesand in the context of today's tight lending standards.Still, perspective is important. Home purchases relyfar less on rock bottom interest rates and far more oneconomic improvement, especially income and jobgrowth. Those who wish for lower rates are, in a way,wishing economic misfortune on others. At this stageof the recovery, we should all be cheering evenmildly better economic news, even if it does engen-der somewhat higher rates. Yes, fewer householdbalance sheets will be improved by refinancing, it'strue, but if that comes at the expense of more folksgetting jobs, spending money and buying homessooner rather than later, so be it.
 
Table Definitions_______________ 
Median Price
The price at which 50% of priceswere higher and 50%were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by thenumber of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or theprice paid for the property divided bythe asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how manydays it would take to sell all theproperty for sale at the current rateof sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell thathasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number of properties actively forsale as of the last day of the month.
Page 3
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven
County ,,. % - . % - . % - . % - . % . %Aptos ,,. % - . % - . % - . % - . % . %Capitola ,,. % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aRio del Mar ,,. % . % . % - . % . % . %Scotts Valley ,,. % . % . % . % . % . %Santa Cruz ,,. % . % - . % - . % - . % - . %Watsonville ,,. % . % . % - . % . % . %
Santa Cruz County - November 2010
Condos/Townhomes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices05101520253035404550$100$200$300$400$500$600$70006FMAMJJASOND07FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASON
Condo SalesMedian& AveragePrices
Santa Cruz County Condos
-Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%
 
06FMAMJ J ASOND07FMAMJ J ASOND08FMAMJ J ASOND09FMAMJ J ASOND10FMAMJ J ASON
Santa Cruz County Homes:
Year-Over-Year Median Price Change
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
 Strouse Realty GroupAmerican Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.Scotts Valley, CA 95066(831) 338-6481Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.comhttp://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
DRE #01228878
Last month we talked about tracking momentum todetermine the best times to buy and sell real estate.The statistics used to track momentum are:
1. Existing home sales2. New home building permits3. Mortgage loan defaults4. Foreclosure sales, and5. Interest rates
D
IGGING
 
DEEPER
into the trends that affect the local real estate market,we have two more statistics to examine.First, job growth. Job growth is crucial for determiningdemand in the market. All things considered, if jobgrowth is increasing, then demand for real estate willincrease. Yet, the quality of the job growth must betaken into account. If job growth is predominately in-creasing in the service/retail sector, then demand willincrease in the first-time buyers segment of the market.
S
TATISTICS
: J
OB
G
ROWTH
& M
IGRATION
 
If job growth is increasing in the technical/professionalsector, then demand will increase in the move-up andhigh-end segments of the market.Next, migration. Similar to job growth, a positive in-migration to the local community will spur demand inthe real estate market. Again, the quality of that in-migration will determine which segment of the marketbenefits most.For a detailed forecast of the Santa Cruz County Econ-omy, go to:http://rereport.com/scc/print/Santa_Cruz.pdf .

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