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SusanStrouseApril

SusanStrouseApril

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Published by: Susan Strouse on Apr 10, 2011
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local market trends
The Real Estate Report
S
ANTA
C
RUZ
C
OUNTY
 
Strouse Realty GroupAmerican Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.Scotts Valley, CA 95066(831) 338-6481Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.comhttp://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
DRE #01228878
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
 
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. | Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com | (831) 338-6481
M
ORE
 
STATISTICS
Year-over-year, home inventory was up for thetenth month in a row: 1.9%.The sales price to list price ratio turned around lastmonth and gained 1.4 points to 97.8%.Pending sales were off for the eighth month in arow: 4.3%.All these statistics are year-over-year.
I
N
 
THE
 
CONDO
 
MARKET
the median price was down 31.1% year-over-year.Condos sales were up 3.6% year-over-year.Pending sales were down for the seventh month ina row year-over-year: 20%.Inventory, on the other hand, increased for thetenth month in a row: up 29.5% year-over-year.Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.For complete information on a particular neighbor-hood or property, call.Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up inMarch, year-over-year, for the third month in a row:41.5%.The median price for single-family, re-sale homesin Santa Cruz County was down 9.4% year-over-year, while the average price declined 17.6%.
S
ALES
 
MOMENTUM
although still negative, started trending upward lastmonth and is now at –9%.Our momentum stats are calculated using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. Bycomparing this year’s 12-month moving average tolast year’s, we get a percentage showing marketmomentum.
P
ENDING
 
MOMENTUM
a harbinger of future sales, while still positive, hasbeen trending downward. Last month the number was +1%, a decline from +4% the month before.
P
RICING
 
MOMENTUM
after peaking at +12% last August, has also beentrending downward and is now at 0%.
Home Sales Up Third Month in a Row
A
PRIL
/M
AY
2011
Inside This Issue
>
L
OCAL
M
ARKET
T
RENDS
.....................
1
 
>
M
ORTGAGE
R
ATE
O
UTLOOK
...............
2
 
>
H
OME
S
TATISTICS
..............................
2
 
>
F
ORECLOSURE
S
TATS
........................
3
 
>
C
ONDO
S
TATISTICS
............................
3
 
>
A
NNUAL
T
ABLES
.................................
4
 
 
Mar 11 Feb 11 Mar 10
Median Price: 480,000$ 459,900$ 530,000$ Average Price: 534,374$ 619,199$ 648,201$ Units Sold: 167 95 118Inventory: 580 560 569Sale/List Price Ratio: 97.8% 96.4% 97.9%Days on Market: 101 94 72Days of Inventory 104 159 144
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%06FMAMJ JASOND07FMAMJ JASOND08FMAMJ JASOND09FMAMJ JASOND10FMAMJ JASOND11FM
Santa Cruz County Homes:
Sales MomentumSales Pending Median
© 2010 rereport.com
 
The Real Estate Report
Page 2
Mortgage Rate Outlook 
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%01-0504-0507-0510-0501-0604-0607-0610-0601-0704-0707-0710-0701-0804-0807-0810-0801-0904-0907-0910-0901-1004-1007-1010-1001-11
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
 Strouse Realty GroupAmerican Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.Scotts Valley, CA 95066(831) 338-6481Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.comhttp://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
DRE #01228878
The chart above shows the Nationalmonthly average for 30-year fixedrate mortgages as compiled byHSH.com. The average includes mort-gages of all sizes, including conforming,"expanded conforming," and jumbo.
May 1, 2011
--The economy is starting to show someadditional signs of an expanding recovery, and onemore resilient to external shocks. That said, manychallenges to overcome still remain before we get toa "full recovery", and if consumer moods are anyindication, rising gasoline prices are starting to createsome considerable headwinds.HSH.com's overall mortgage tracker -- our weeklyFixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found thatthe average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgagesrose by six basis points (.06%) to finish the week at5.17%. A key component of the first-time homebuyer market, FHA-backed 30-year fixed-rate mortgagesincreased by five basis points to land at 4.81%.ARMs are starting to regain some favor in the mar-ket, and Hybrid 5/1 ARMs, perhaps the most pre-ferred alternative to the traditional 30-year FRM(notably for jumbo buyers) increased a full tenth-percentage point (.10%), beginning April at an aver-age of 3.84%.Mortgage rates are pushed higher by improvinggrowth and especially improving inflation. A still-softjob market and weak housing markets act as a coun-terbalance to that upward pressure, while the eventsoverseas do add degree of uncertainty to the outlook.As the glass begins to seem more likely to be half fullthan empty, the likelihood is that interest rates willtend to be somewhat higher on balance than lower. Astock market finding its footing is one expression of that as money moved more confidently into risk andaway from safety.Concerned about risk, the Federal Reserve and other regulators released for comment and feedback apaper to address financial risk. Ultimately this willinclude a definition of a Qualified Residential Mort-gage, expected to be a risk-free item indeed, requir-ing borrowers to have a deep equity position andgreat credit, among other risk-controlling features.Eventually, the QRM will be the only loan bundledinto securities with no loss reserves held back by theissuer or originator. In theory, a narrow definition willexpand the number of borrowers who fall outside theboundaries, and that audience should be largeenough as to attract a response from lenders eager to lend money. However, it is by no means clear atthis moment whether a more robust market for non-QRM mortgages will form, or if the market will go theother way, originating only (or mostly) QRM-levelmortgages, sharply limiting the availability of credit toonly the best possible borrowers.
 
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven
County ,,. % - . % - . % . % - . % . %ptos ,,. - . . . - . - .Capitola ,,. % - . % - . % - . % . % . %Rio del Mar ,,. % . % . % . % . % - . %Seacliff ,,. % - . % - . % - . % - . % - . %San Lorenzo Vly ,,. % - . % - . % . % . % . %Soquel ,,. % - . % - . % - . % - . % . %Scotts Valley ,,. % - . % - . % . % . % . %Santa Cruz ,,. % - . % . % . % . % . %East County ,,. % - . % - . % - . % - . % . %West County ,,. % . % . % . % . % - . %Watsonville ,,. % - . % - . % - . % - . % . %
Santa Cruz County - March 2011
Single-Family Homes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices
020406080100120140160180200$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900$1,00007FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASOND11FM
Single-family Home SalesMedian& AveragePrices
Santa Cruz County Homes
- Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
 
Table Definitions_______________ 
Median Price
The price at which 50% of priceswere higher and 50%were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by thenumber of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or theprice paid for the property divided bythe asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how manydays it would take to sell all theproperty for sale at the current rateof sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell thathasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number of properties actively forsale as of the last day of the month.
Page 3
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
 Strouse Realty GroupAmerican Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.Scotts Valley, CA 95066(831) 338-6481Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.comhttp://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
DRE #01228878
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure pro-cess, in Santa Cruz County decreased 41.3% in Febru-ary from the year before. Notices were down 14.3%from January.Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice beforesale, were up 13% year-over-year, and up 2.4% fromJanuary.After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there areonly three possible outcomes. First, the sale can becancelled for reasons that include a successful loanmodification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-ments. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, thebank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typicallyan investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, theproperty will be sold to the third party; if not, it will goback to the bank and become part of that bank's REOinventory.
F
ORECLOSURE
 
STATISTICS
 
In January, cancellations were up 17.7% year-over-year, and up 11.1% from January.Properties going back to the bank dropped in Februaryfrom January by 7%. Year-over-year, properties goingback to the back declined 11.7%. This is good news.But, the total number of homes that have had a noticeof default filed increased by 11.6% in February com-pared to February 2010. Although, they were down9.4% from January.The total number of homes scheduled for sale in-creased by 1.8% from January, and, were up 5.5%year-over-year.Unfortunately, the total number of homes owned by thebanks was up 24.97% year-over-year. Ouch!
-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%
 
07FMA M J J A SOND08FMA M J J A SOND09FMA M J JA SO ND10FMA M J J A SOND11FM
Santa Cruz County Homes:
Year-Over-Year Median Price Change
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven
County ,,. % - . % - . % . % - . % . %Aptos ,,. % - . % - . % - . % - . % . %Capitola ,,. % . % . % . % . % - . %o e ar ,,. - . - . . - . .Scotts Valley ,,. % - . % - . % . % . % . %Santa Cruz ,,. % - . % - . % - . % - . % . %Watsonville ,,. % - . % . % . % - . % . %
Santa Cruz County - March 2011
Condos/Townhomes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices
051015202530354045$100$200$300$400$500$600$70007FMAMJ JASOND08FMAMJ JASOND09FMAMJ JASOND10FMAMJ JASOND11F
 lMedian& AveragePrices
Santa Cruz County Condos
- Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)

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