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Table Of Contents

SUMMARY
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
1.1 Introduction
1.2 The current situation
1.2.1 The global economy
Figure 1.1
Figure 1.2
1.2.2 United States
Figure 1.4
Figure 1.8
1.2.3 Asia
Business cycle development in the European Union
External balances from a savings and investment perspective
1.3.1 Fiscal policy
Solvency of the GIPS countries1)
1.3.2 Monetary conditions and financial markets
1.4 Macroeconomic outlook
1.4.1 The global economy
Exchange rate developments in the European Union vis-à-vis the euro
1.4.2 United States
1.4.3 Asia
1.4.4 Latin America
1.4.5 Assumptions, risks and uncertainties
1.4.6 The European economy
1.5 Macroeconomic policy
1.5.1 Fiscal policy
1.5.2 Monetary policy
Deviations of country-specific optimal policy rates from the ECB rate
GDP growth, inflation and unemployment in various countries
GDP growth, inflation and unemployment in the European countries
2.1 The European debt crisis
2.1.2 Interest spreads
2.1.3 Who was hit and who has been rescued (so far)?
Economic growth in selected euro-area countries
Net capital exports = current account balance
2.3 Excessive public debt despite the Stability and
2.4 The role of the Basel system
2.5 A new economic governance system for the euro area
2.5.1 Political debt constraints
2.5.2 A credible crisis mechanism
2.5.2.1 The EU decisions
2.5.2.2 Basic requirements for the crisis mechanism
2.5.2.3 How the crisis mechanism operates
2.5.2.5 Debt moratorium
2.5.2.7 Stabilisation effects
2.6 Supplementary reforms are needed
2.6.1 Bank regulation
2.6.2 Detailing the responsibility of the ECB
2.7 Concluding remarks
GREECE1
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Macroeconomic developments
3.2.1 Growth performance
3.2.2 Labour market
Greek GDP per capita relative to EU-15 and the peripheral-4
3.2.3 Public sector
3.2.3.1 Government spending and its components
Demography-related government expenditure
3.2.3.2 Sources of government funding
Structure of total revenue of Greek general government
3.2.4 External imbalances
Share of services in total exports and total imports
3.3 The crisis
3.4 The bailout
Greek public sector financing requirements and loan disbursements
Consolidation measures and budget accounting
3.5 Will the bailout package prove enough?
3.5.1 Economic considerations
3.5.2 Political considerations
3.6 The day after (June 2013)
3.6.3 Transfer union
3.6.4 Necessary tax reforms in Greece
3.7 Concluding remarks
SPAIN
4.1 Introduction
10-year real and nominal interest rates and inflation in Spain
4.3 The crisis
The occupational composition of native-born and foreign-born in Spain (in %)
4.4 Was the Golden Decade unsustainable?
The two-tierstructure of the Spanish labour market
4.5 Competitiveness and productivity6
Spanish share of service exports in the OECD
4.6 Current adjustment issues
The lack of response of wage increases to unemployment
The lack of response of real wage increases to unemploymenta)
4.7 The key issue of labour market reform
4.8 Other key reforms
4.9 Outlook and conclusions
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Underlying causes of the crisis
5.2.1 Limited liability
5.2.2 Other factors
5.2.2.1 Agency problems
5.2.2.2 Costs of equity finance
5.2.3 Tax distortions
5.2.3.1 Tax incentives for debt financing
5.2.3.2 Exemption from VAT
5.2.4 Why did regulation fail?
5.3 Tax versus regulation
5.3.1 Basic principles
5.3.2 Options for tax and regulation
5.3.2.1 Tax
5.3.2.2 Regulation
Basel III capital requirements from year 2019
5.4 Taxation to raise revenue
5.5 Crisis prevention
5.5.1 Capital adequacy
5.5.1.1 Taxes in the presence of regulation
5.5.1.2 Empirical evidence to guide regulation
5.5.2 Other issues
Comparison of benefits and costs of raising capital ratios
5.6 Conclusions
Shareholder returns – different capital ratios
THE MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ADVISORY GROUP AT CESIFO
PREVIOUS REPORTS
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EEAG_Euro Economy_2011

EEAG_Euro Economy_2011

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Published by: Teoh Chew Yew on Apr 13, 2011
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