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Accidents in Singapore, Rough Estimations

Accidents in Singapore, Rough Estimations

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Published by Irfee
1. Estimation the future age structure of the population 15 years.
Male Age Group 0 - 14 15 - 29 30 - 44 45 - 59 60+ Death Rate 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.15 0.6 Survival Rate 0.99 0.98 0.95 0.85 0.4

Number 30,000 36,000 40,000 18,000 12,000 136,000

Survivor 39,000 29,700 35,280 38,000 20,100 162,080

Female Age Group 0 - 14 15 - 29 30 - 44 45 - 59 60+

Number 30,000 35,000 40,000 19,000 14,000 138,000

Death Rate 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.1 0.45

Survival Rate 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.9 0.55

Survivor 39,000 29,700 34,
1. Estimation the future age structure of the population 15 years.
Male Age Group 0 - 14 15 - 29 30 - 44 45 - 59 60+ Death Rate 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.15 0.6 Survival Rate 0.99 0.98 0.95 0.85 0.4

Number 30,000 36,000 40,000 18,000 12,000 136,000

Survivor 39,000 29,700 35,280 38,000 20,100 162,080

Female Age Group 0 - 14 15 - 29 30 - 44 45 - 59 60+

Number 30,000 35,000 40,000 19,000 14,000 138,000

Death Rate 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.1 0.45

Survival Rate 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.9 0.55

Survivor 39,000 29,700 34,

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Published by: Irfee on Apr 14, 2011
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10/19/2012

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1. Estimation the future age structure of the population 15 years.
MaleAgeGroup NumbeDeathRateSurvivalRate Survivo
0 - 14 30,000 0.01 0.99 39,00015 - 29 36,000 0.02 0.98 29,70030 - 44 40,000 0.05 0.95 35,28045 - 59 18,000 0.15 0.85 38,00060+ 12,000 0.6 0.4 20,100136,000 162,080
FemaleAgeGroup NumbeDeathRateSurvivalRate SurvivoBirthRate
0 - 14 30,000 0.01 0.99 39,00015 - 29 35,000 0.02 0.98 29,700 1.230 - 44 40,000 0.04 0.96 34,300 0.945 - 59 19,000 0.1 0.9 38,40060+ 14,000 0.45 0.55 24,800138,000 166,200
- It can be seen that in 15 years time the population of the older people is increasingrapidly due to the improvement in the medical services.12000 1400018000 1900040000 4000036000 3500030000 30000Male Female21000 2480038000 3840035280 3430029700 2970039000 39000Male Female
60+45-5930-4415-290-14
1
 
- The younger population is slightly decreasing because of the small birth rate sincemarriage is no longer become the priority.- The female population is slightly bigger than the male population due to thebigger survival rate for female population.
2. Headship rate method
Headship rate method (Present Time)Age Group Male Headship Rate Household WomenHeadshipRate Household
0 - 14 30,000 0.00 0 30,000 0 015 - 29 36,000 0.33 11,880 35,000 0.07 2,45030 - 44 40,000 0.88 35,200 40,000 0.18 7,20045 - 59 18,000 0.91 16,380 19,000 0.2 3,80060+ 12,000 0.35 4,200 14,000 0.41 5,740136,000 67,660 138,000 19,190
Headship rate method (15 years Time)Age Group Male Headship Rate Household WomenHeadshipRate Household
0 - 14 39,000 0.00 0 39,000 0 015 - 29 29,700 0.33 9,801 29,700 0.07 2,07930 - 44 35,280 0.88 31,046 34,300 0.18 6,17445 - 59 38,000 0.91 34,580 38,400 0.2 7,68060+ 20,100 0.35 7,035 24,800 0.41 10,168162,080 82,462 166,200 26,101
Total population at present time = 67,660 + 19,190 = 86,850Total population at 15 years time = 82,462 + 26,101 = 108,563Average household at present time = population at present / households at present= 274,000 / 86,850= 3.15Average household size after 15 years = Forecast population / Forecast household= 328,280 / 108,563= 3.022
 
The average household size is decreasing after 15 years time
3. The present employment:
- The basic sector = 55,090- The non basic sector = 79,330The basic sector annual rate = 1.6 % for the next 15 years
(a) . Estimate the labour demand and supply after 15 years.
Et = Bt + Nt = 55,090 + 79,330 = 134,420m = E / B = 134,420 / 55,090 = 2.44Annual growth rate = 0.016n = 15 yearsAverage growth rate for 15 years forecast = (1 + r)
n
 = (1 + 0.016)
15
= 1.269B
(t+15)
= 55,090 x 1.269 = 69,909E
(t+15)
= mB
(t+15)
= 2.44 x 69,909= 170,578Therefore the labour demand for 15 years is 170,578P
t(15-60)
= (36,000 + 40,000 + 18,000) + (35,000 + 40,000 + 19,000) = 188,000P
t
= total population = 136,000 + 138,000 = 274,000P
(t+15)(15-60)
= (29,700 + 35,280 + 38,000) + (29,700 + 34,300 + 38400) = 205,380P
(t+15)
= 162,080 + 166,200 = 328,280w
t
= P
t(15-60)
/ P
t
= 188,000 / 274,000 = 0.686w
(t+15)
= P
(t+15)(15-60)
/ P
(t+15)
= 205,380 / 328,280 = 0.626Ls = aP = (wp)P134,420 = (0.686p)(274,000)P = 0.715L
s(t+15)
= (0.626)(0.715)(328280)= 146,935Therefore the labour supply after 15 years is 146,935
(b) . The population demand and the amount of in-migration
Labour need = Labour demand – Labour supply= 170,578 – 146,935= 23,6433

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