Racially Polarized Voting in City of HoustonElections: 1997 – 2009

By Richard Murray, Ph.D.Hobby Center for Public PolicyThe University of HoustonMarch 2011

I. Measuring Racial/Ethnic Polarized Voting in the City of Houston

In the absence of individual data from sources like exit polls, the most common measure of racially or ethnically polarized voting utilizes voter precinct data to analyze electoralbehavior. Do Black voters consistently support different candidates than White voters?Do Latinos vote differently than Anglo (non-Hispanic Whites) or Black voters? In a largecity like Houston that remains significantly segregated by race, and somewhat segregatedby Hispanic ethnicity, precinct-level data provides a useful tool to investigate patterns of voter polarization along racial or ethnic lines. This is especially the case with Black andAnglo voters because there are relatively few neighborhoods within the City of Houstonthat contain substantial numbers of African American and non-Hispanic White voters.That permits one to draw a representative sample of homogenous Black precincts andcontrast their voting patterns with a similar sample of precincts that contain almost noAfrican American voters and few (Less than 5% Hispanic surname registered voters).Precinct-level data is somewhat less helpful in examining Latino voting patterns becausethere are many neighborhoods in the City that contain significant numbers of Hispanic andnon-Hispanic (usually Anglo) voters. These mixed Anglo-Hispanic precincts thus limitour ability to contrast Latino and White voting patterns because of the ecological problemsof inferring how individuals in these heterogeneous units are behaving. It is somewhateasier to contrast Latino and Black voting patterns in Houston. Not only are there, asnoted, many African American precincts in Houston that contain virtually no Hispanic orAnglo voters, but there are also very few Black voters registered in precincts withmajorities of Spanish-surname voters.The following analysis is based on representative samples of three precinct groupings inthe City of Houston.(1)

Homogeneous Black. These 20 precincts were at least 95 percent Black in the2000 census and each gave Barack Obama at least 97% of their votes in the 2008presidential election. We can therefore reasonably assume these are still virtuallyentirely Black precincts in early 2011.This sample includes the following Harris County precincts:031 169 259 422068 195 288 455104 219 318 580132 240 327156 253 402And precincts 2017 and 2116 in Fort Bend County.

3(2)

Homogenous Anglo. While many non-Hispanic whites in Houston live inneighborhoods with substantial numbers of Asian Americans and Hispanicresidents, it is possible to identify 20 precincts that were less than five percentBlack in the 2000 census, and that currently have five percent or less of theirregistered voters with Spanish or Asian-American surnames. These precincts canreasonably be assumed to be representative of the Anglo voters in the City. Theprecincts in this simple are all in Harris County.040 130 234 385056 148 274 578092 175 303 612095 178 304 745098 227 309 760(3)

Predominately Hispanic. As mentioned, most Latinos in Houston live in precinctswith many non-Hispanic registered voters. It is possible, however to identifyprecincts that were more than 80% Hispanic in the 2000 census of population andcurrently have more than 60% Spanish-surname registered voters. The collectivebehavior of voters in these precincts can provide insight into the extent of voterpolarization along Latino-Anglo and Latino-Black lines.The following 20 precincts in Harris County constitute the local predominatelyHispanic sample. In each precinct we have listed the total voter registration as of the November 2010 election, and the number of Spanish surname voters in eachprecinct and their percentage of the total registration.Table One: Hispanic Surname Voters in Selected Precincts: October 2010Pct Reg. Voters Spanish % Spanish# as of 10/2010 Surname Surname010 1738 1261 72.5011 1847 1199 64.9046 2549 1587 67.3062 2235 1715 76.7064 2156 1612 74.8065 2221 1713 77.1069 1362 1012 74.3072 1808 1238 68.5078 1493 1060 67.0079 3054 2279 74.6