WHY RUSSIAN POLICY IS FAILING IN ASIA
Stephen J. BlankApril 2, 1997
*******The views expressed in this report are those of the authorand do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position ofthe Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or theU.S. Government. This report is cleared for public release;distribution is unlimited.*******Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should beforwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. ArmyWar College, Carlisle Barracks, PA 17013-5244. Copies of thisreport may be obtained from the Publications and ProductionOffice by calling commercial (717) 245-4133, DSN 242-4133, FAX(717) 245-3820, or via the Internet at rummelr@carlisle-emh2.army.mil*******All 1995 and later Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)monographs are available on the Strategic Studies InstituteHomepage for electronic dissemination. SSI's Homepage address is:http://carlisle-www.army. mil/usassi/
FOREWORD
Since its inception as a state, Russia has been both aEuropean and an Asian power. Although Russia today, as was trueduring much of its history, is torn by an identity crisis overwhere it belongs, its elites have never renounced Russia's vitalinterests in Asia and the belief that it should be recognized asa great power there. However, that belief and Moscow's ability tosustain it are now under threat, due, as Dr. Stephen Blank'sthorough analysis informs us, to the ongoing failures of Russianpolicymakers to come to grips with changed Russian and Asianrealities.At the same time, this aspect of Russian policy has beenneglected in American assessments of Russia. This is a seriousshortcoming, because, in Dr. Blank's view, Russia's Asianpolicies, viewed in their full breadth, are important signs ofpresent and future trends concerning its behavior at home and inthe wider world. Those policies are also significant as Asia'simportance in world affairs rises. We ignore the threateningsituation facing Russia, and Moscow's failure to adjust to thosethreats, only at our own peril. The growing concern over Russianarms transfers to China, a subject addressed in the study, isonly one sign of unexpected negative trends that might workagainst U.S. interests if we continue to neglect Asian aspects ofRussia's global behavior and policy.Accordingly, this study seeks to enlighten readers as to theimportance of Asia in Russian policy and to stimulate publicawareness and debate on these important issues for U.S. policy.RICHARD H. WITHERSPOONColonel, U.S. ArmyDirector, Strategic Studies Institute
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