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Egypt Security, Political, And Islamist Challenges Pub787

Egypt Security, Political, And Islamist Challenges Pub787

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EGYPT:SECURITY, POLITICAL, AND ISLAMIST CHALLENGESSherifa ZuhurSeptember 2007
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as dened
in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, it may not be copyrighted.
Visit our website for other free publication downloadshttp://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/
 
ii***** The views expressed in this report are those of the author
and do not necessarily reect the ofcial policy or position of the
Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited.***** The author acknowledges with gratitute the insights of other Egyptian colleagues and friends as well as those of Dr. W. Andrew Terrill, Lieutenant Colonel Charles H. Wilson III, Ahmad Zalat, Samia Mehrez, Tonia Rifney, Kamal El-Melbawy, Colonel Cindy Jebb, Dr. Steve Metz, Professor Douglas Lovelace, Dr. Larry Goodson, and cooperation from Colonel Teddy Seel and Colonel Kenneth Shive.***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. ***** All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications are available on the SSI homepage for electronic dissemination. Hard copies of this report also may be ordered from our homepage. SSI’s homepage address is:
www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil
.***** The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please subscribe on our homepage at
www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil
/
newsletter/.
ISBN 1-58487-312-4
 
iii
CONTENTS
Foreword ......................................
v
Summary .....................................
vii
Introduction ...................................
1
Overview ...................................
1
Egypt’s Visibility in the New Middle East .......
2
Egypt as a Security Concern ...................
3
Failing, or Failed? ...............................
4
Democracy ....................................
7
The “New Middle East” and Anti-Americanism ....
9
Roadblocks to Democracy in Egypt ............
11
Egypt’s Signicance in the Region
 ...............
13
The Military and Security Services ...............
15
Aid, Need, and Violence in a “Failing State.......
18
Development and Violence ...................
21
Economic Standing ..........................
22
Subsidies .....................................
23
Poverty, Alienation, and the Link to Militancy ..
26
Literacy and Gender Inequality ..................
27
National Character Arguments ..................
28
Egypt’s Democratization in the Regional Context ..
29
Egypts Political Development ...................
31
Democratic Trends versus Dynastic Succession ..
33
Indicators for Democratization ..................
35
Egypts Regional Role ..........................
36
Egypts Role in Global Jihad .....................
38
Islamist Violence ..............................
39
Hereditary Succession? .........................
41
Leadership Alternatives? .......................
42
 True Obstacles to Democracy .................
45
Is There a U.S. Role in Democratization? ..........
46
Islamism and Radicalism in Egypt ...............
48
Growth or Diminishment of Violence? .........
49

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