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Sustaining the Peace After Civil War Pub819

Sustaining the Peace After Civil War Pub819

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SUSTAINING THE PEACE AFTER CIVIL WART. David MasonDecember 2007 
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as dened
in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in thepublic domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United StatesCode, Section 105, it may not be copyrighted.
Visit our website for other free publication downloadshttp://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/
 
ii*****The views expressed in this report are those of the author
and do not necessarily reect the ofcial policy or position of the
Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S.Government. This report is cleared for public release; distributionis unlimited.*****This manuscript was funded by the U.S. Army War CollegeExternal Research Associates Program. Information on thisprogram is available on our website,
www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil
, at the Publishing button.*****Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should beforwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army WarCollege, 122 Forbes Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5244.*****All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications are availableon the SSI homepage for electronic dissemination. Hard copiesof this report also may be ordered from our homepage. SSI’shomepage address is:
www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil
.*****The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mailnewsletter to update the national security community on theresearch of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, andupcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletteralso provides a strategic commentary by one of our researchanalysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, pleasesubscribe on our homepage at
www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil
/
newsletter/.
ISBN 1-58487-331-0
 
iii
FOREWORD
Since the end of World War II, there have been fourtimes as many civil wars as interstate wars. For a smallsubset of nations,
civil war is a chronic condition
: abouthalf of the civil war nations have had at least two and
as many as six conicts. The author of this monograph,
Dr. David Mason, seeks to spell out what social scienceresearch can tell us about how civil wars end and whatpredicts whether (and when) they will recur. After
summarizing research on what factors dene the risk
set of nations that are susceptible to civil war onset,he presents an analytical framework that has been
used, rst, to explain and predict how civil wars end—
whether in a government victory, a rebel victory, or a
negotiated settlement—and, second, whether the peacewill last following the termination of the conict (or,
alternatively, the nation will experience a relapse intocivil war). Research suggests that the outcome of the
previous civil war—whether it ended in a governmentvictory, a rebel victory or a negotiated settlement—aswell as the duration and deadliness of the conict,
affect the durability of the peace after civil war.The international community can reduce the
prospects for a resumption of armed conict by 1)
introducing peacekeeping forces, 2) investing ineconomic development and reconstruction, and 3)establishing democratic political institutions tailored
to the conguration of ethnic and religious cleavages
in the society. The author closes by applying thesepropositions in an analysis of the civil war in Iraq: What
can be done to bring the Iraq conict to an earlier, less
destructive, and more stable conclusion?

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