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Dr Yamamoto Hsbc Gam Em Debt

Dr Yamamoto Hsbc Gam Em Debt

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Published by drakiko

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Published by: drakiko on Apr 21, 2011
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HSBC Global Asset Management
Emerging Markets Debt and Currencies
Navigating Between a Greenback and Redback World 
February 2011
For Investment Professionals only
% of world total, 2010*
010203040506070US tradeUS GDPDollarresserves
World is shifting from U.S. dollar hegemony to a multi-currency system
 – Weakened US and Eurozone, rising EM currencies includingChina – Many developed sovereign credits, with high debt/GDP, maymaintain higher credit spreads – The path to the future is unclear
Emerging markets lead global growth in a multispeedworld
 – Should continue for this decade – Bond markets relatively small, less than 40% of GDP vs.150% in mature economies
Navigating this environment will not be easy
 – U.S. and China’s love-hate relationship, a policy “tug-o-war” – Smaller emerging markets caught in between -risks – Returns in emerging markets will vary
The new reality
* or latest data availableSource: Word Bank as of December 2010.
1820195020052050FChina33.0%US27.3%US20.3%China28.1%India16.0%USSR9.6%China14.6%US21.9%France5.5%UK6.7%Japan 6.6%India17.2%Russia5.4%Germany6.5%India5.9%Japan4.8%UK5.2%China5.0%Germany4.1%Brazil4.4%
Sources: OECD, World Bank, Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered.Any forecast contained herein is for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.
World economic leaders shifting
Percentage of world GDP
Resurgence of Emerging Markets
Shares of Global growth in the period to 2030
Two-thirds of global growth to 2030 will come from EMs, % oftotal (cased on real 2009 prices and dollars)
Chin22%Indi9%Asia ex CIJ10%SSA4%MENA5%Latam9%CIS4%US14%EU-2715%Japan2%ROW6%

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