SITUATION REPORT: LIBYA
April 20, 2011Prepared by: Libya Outreach Group
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
On April 19, 2011, NATO admitted that airstrikes alone cannot stop Gaddafi’s attacks onMisrata, France and Britain sent military advisors to Benghazi while the United States committed$25 million in nonlethal support to the opposition, Gaddafi made another “offer” for peace, theUN stated that Gaddafi’s actions in Misrata may amount to war crimes, and reports surfaced thatGaddafi is circumventing UN sanctions with the help of international partners to obtain much-needed gasoline.The humanitarian situation remains severe and worsening. Hospitals do not have the capacity toprovide care and refugees are flowing into Tunisia and Italy. Opportunities abound forpolicymakers to alleviate the humanitarian crisis, hasten Gaddafi’s demise and the creation of afree, democratic Libyan state—a goal that the international community cannot lose sight of.Based on today’s events, international policymakers can best support the Libyan opposition by:
•
Officially recognizing the National Transitional Council as the sole, legitimate representativeof the Libyan people on an interim basis until Libyan civilians can hold democratic elections.
•
Unfreezing Gaddafi assets and allocating funds to NTC to facilitate humanitarian relief services, political, and military efforts
•
Finding a nation willing to receive an exiled Gaddafi and convincing him that it is his bestoption
•
Disabling Gaddafi’s capacity to circumvent UN sanctions
•
Send independent fact-finding missions to Libya to determine the extent to which theGaddafi regime is committing war crimes
•
Preventing foreign-national mercenaries from entering Libya
•
Widening NATO’s efforts to the full extent allowed under UN Resolution 1973 and assuggested by the French government
•
Facilitating wider delivery of humanitarian aid to the Libyan people
•
Reinstituting United Nations Leadership in Humanitarian mission
•
Reinstituting American participation and leadership in NATO mission
•
Conducting targeted airstrikes in and around Misrata, Zintan, Zawiya, and WesternMountains to prevent further civilian causalities
•
Enabling the National Transitional Council to engage in an airborne offensive againstGaddafi forces
•
Promoting and facilitating the post-Gaddafi political transition process to democraticelections to deter any power vacuum
•
Creating an international authority to regulate and oversee the Libyan oil trade
LIBYA SITUATION REPORT – April 20, 2011
The following report provides information from sources on the ground in Libya (compiledthrough telephone conversations, news reports, Twitter, Facebook, and opposition websites) thatwill help policymakers respond quickly to developments in the country.
Military Developments:
Gaddafi and Loyalists
Summary of News
•
NATO admits that without a ground presence it cannot stop shelling of Misrata(http://tiny.cc/uayi6
)
•
RAF jets bomb Gaddafi's communications infrastructure around Sirte(http://tiny.cc/v1fao
)Policy Implications
•
NATO statement confirms limits of current mission; raises questions about how theconflict will end and makes the effectiveness of the opposition fighters paramount
•
Weakened communications infrastructure inhibits Gaddafi’s ability to communicate withloyalist forces; strikes will have little to no effect on civilian communications betweeneast and west as telephone connections have long been severed for those purposesPolicy Recommendations
•
NATO and international community must clearly define the endgame and how they willsupport its achievement
•
Greater support must be given to opposition forces if the international community expectsthem to be the sole ground forces against Gaddafi
•
Ensure that Gaddafi’s communications lines remain severed
Military Developments: NTC and Pro-Democracy Fighters
Summary of News
•
Libyan opposition forces getting organized, beginning to resemble a trained militia(http://tiny.cc/lfxkq
)
•
France will step up its air strikes in Libya to protect civilians from pro-Gaddafi forces,(http://tiny.cc/40yui
), will not deploy troops for ground combat (http://tiny.cc/pq10v
), but
will send military advisors to Benghazi to help the NTC coordinate civilian protection(http://tiny.cc/8e7as
)Policy Implications
•
Better organization among opposition forces showcases effectiveness of oppositioncommand and improves likelihood of military success against Gaddafi forces until and if a negotiated political solution occurs
•
Presence of French advisors in addition to their British counterparts will help increase theNTC’s capacity to meet its governmental obligations to protect the Libyan people fromGaddafi attacksPolicy Recommendations
•
U.S. to provide similar military advisory assistance as French and British counterparts
•
Increased professionalism of opposition forces indicates that they are ready to use moreadvanced weaponry against Gaddafi forces, thus the international community, under itsobligation to protect the civilian population, should provide such weaponry to oppositionforces
Political Developments: Gaddafi and Loyalists
Summary of News
•
Gaddafi regime says it is prepared to hold free election in 6 months; Gaddafi role is“negotiable” (http://tiny.cc/h3gdc
)Policy Implications
•
The offer is likely hollow as Gaddafi forces continue to attack the Libyan people.Furthermore, the NTC has consistently stated that it would end its military operation if Gaddafi forces withdraw from occupied cities
•
Even assuming the offer’s sincerity, it is unacceptable as Gaddafi’s role is nonnegotiable; he and his family must relinquish powerPolicy Recommendations
•
Offer should not be taken seriously until Gaddafi troops withdraw from Libyan cities andGaddafi and family relinquish power
Political Developments: NTC and Pro-Democracy Fighters
Summary of News
•
NTC President Mustafa Abdel Jalil meets with Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini
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