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Who WillFeed the World?
The production challenge
Lucia Wegner
Senior development economist and independent consultant
Gine Zwart
Oxfam Novib
April 2011
Who Will Feed the World?
Oxfam Research Report, April 20112
Contents
Executive Summary ..............................................................................................................................................................3
1.
Introduction: Is the global agricultural system ready to eed the world in 2030? ......................6
2.
What is the best model to drive sustainableagricultural growth and improve ood security? ........................................................................................12
2.1
Where the debate stands .......................................................................................................................14
2.2
Models o arming systems ...................................................................................................................15
2.3
Small-scale Farming: pros and cons .................................................................................................20Advantages/opportunities o small armers compared with large armersRisks/challenges o small armers compared with large armers
2.4
Large-scale arming: pros and cons .................................................................................................25Advantages/opportunities o large armers compared with small armersRisks/challenges o large armers compared with small armersEvidence so ar
2.5
Low External Input (LEI) agriculture andHigh External Input (HEI) agriculture: pros and cons ..............................................................32
3.
A our-pronged approach to eed the world in 2030 ..............................................................................39
3.1
Support subsistence (amily) armers .............................................................................................39
3.2
Empower small investor armers to exploit their ull potential ........................................41
3.3
Make large-scale arming pro-poor .................................................................................................46
3.4
Build on complementarities between small and large arming systems ...................49
4.
Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................................................53Sources and reerences ...................................................................................................................................................58Notes..........................................................................................................................................................................................61Acknowledgements ..........................................................................................................................................................66
Who Will Feed the World?
Oxfam Research Report, April 20113
Executive Summary
Against a background o increasing ood insecurity, agriculture in developing countriesmust undergo a signicant transormation in order to increase production and respond toclimate change. It is estimated that eeding 8.2 billion people – an additional 1.4 billion – in2030 would require raising overall ood production by some 50 per cent between 2005/07and 2030. Feeding a larger urban population in a context o increasing scarcity o land andwater, while also adopting more sustainable production methods, is a daunting challenge.In Arica, where it is predicted that population levels will double during the same period, thechallenge will be even more acute. The uncertainty concerning the uture o ood supply has propelled a growing numbero investors and nance companies to acquire large parcels o productive land in manydeveloping countries, particularly in Arica, or the purposes o commercial production, long-term investment, or speculation. Investors expressed interest in 42 million ha o land globallyin 2009 – o which 75 per cent were in sub-Saharan Arica. A conservative estimate is that atleast 6 million ha o additional land will be brought into production each year up to 2030.It should be noted that hunger and malnutrition are due not so much to the unavailabilityo ood as to the inability o the poorest members o society to access it at an aordableprice. Feeding the world by 2030 requires on the one hand eorts to increase oodproduction and thereore ood availability, and on the other measures to ensure that thepoorest and most marginalised sectors o society have the purchasing power to accesswhat ood there is available.Seventy-ve per cent o the world’s poor and undernourished people are located in ruralareas and depend on agriculture directly or indirectly or their livelihoods. Five hundredmillion smallholder arms worldwide are supporting around two billion people, or onethird o humanity. There is an extensive literature and persuasive evidence to suggestthat measures to improve smallholder armers’ capacity to increase ood production andproductivity, as well as to link to markets, will not only enhance their purchasing power butalso increase wider ood availability and so contribute to global ood security.Nevertheless, this vision does not go unchallenged. The surging investors’ interest in Aricahas triggered a debate over the relative advantages and disadvantages in Arica, andworldwide, o large-scale versus small-scale arming models. The debate has been urtherstimulated by the leading development economist Paul Collier, who argued that much o the ocus on smallholders might actually be hindering large-scale poverty reduction, andthat current policies ignore one essential actor or labour-productivity growth: successulmigration out o agriculture and rural areas. According to Collier, the international oodsystem and agricultural production technology have changed in avour o larger-scaleventures. The benet o size is that it acilitates commercialisation.
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Who will feed the World? The production challenge
This report focuses on the production challenge contained with the ambitious question of “who will feed the World?” It acknowledges that this is just one part of the solution to feeding the world, along with waste…
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