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WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

WVGOV: Public Policy Polling Shows Tomblin, Ireland in Comfortable Leads

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In the second independent poll of the 2011 primary for governor of West Virginia, Public Policy Polling released results today showing Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin and former Secretary of State Betty Ireland in comfortable leads.
In the second independent poll of the 2011 primary for governor of West Virginia, Public Policy Polling released results today showing Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin and former Secretary of State Betty Ireland in comfortable leads.

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Published by: The West Virginia Examiner/WV Watchdog on Apr 26, 2011
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Public Policy Polling3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: 888 621-6988Web: www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail: information@publicpolicypolling.com
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 26, 2011INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS PLEASE E-MAILinformation@publicpolicypolling.com OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPHOF THE PRESS RELEASE
Tomblin and Ireland favorites to face off for WV governor
Raleigh, N.C. –
Former West Virginia Secretary of State Betty Ireland and actingGovernor Earl Ray Tomblin have healthy, almost 2:1 leads in their respective primariesto face off for governor this fall.In the Republican contest, Ireland has 31% support over businessman Bill Maloney’s17%, with everyone else in single digits: State Sen. Clark Barnes and State Del. MitchCarmichael at 8%, district attorney Mark Sorsaia at 4%, former State Del. Larry Fairclothand professor Ralph William Clark at 2%, and former Westover mayor Cliff Ellis at 1%.The acting incumbent has an advantage in a crowded Democratic field. Tomblin leadswith 32%, about the same as the next two candidates combined. Three candidates—StateTreasurer John Perdue (17%), Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (16%), and State HouseSpeaker Rick Thompson (15%)—are in a statistical tie for second. State Sen. Jeff Kessler (5%) and activist Arne Moltis (1%) bring up the rear. 14% are still undecided,with the primary less than three weeks away. Twice that many are undecided in the GOPrace, more than enough to make a difference if they end up voting.In the GOP presidential race, Donald Trump has catapulted to a tie for the lead with MikeHuckabee, each at 24%, with Sarah Palin at 13%, Mitt Romney at 11%, Newt Gingrich at9%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, and Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann at 3%. When PPP lastpolled the race in January, Huckabee led Palin, Gingrich, and Romney, 28-23-17-10, soTrump’s emergence has taken the greatest toll on Palin and Gingrich. Trump is the leastliked of the candidates, and the main reason he is getting so much support is birtherism.Among the 53% who do not believe President Obama was born in the U.S., Trump topsHuckabee and Palin, 30-22-17, but among the 22% who do not buy into that theory,Huckabee leads 23-16-15 over Romney and Trump, with Palin in seventh at only 6%.PPP surveyed 590 likely West Virginia Democratic primary voters, with a +/-4.0%margin of error, and 274 likely Republican primary voters, with a +/-5.9% margin of error, from April 21
st
to 24
th
. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaignor political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephoneinterviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the
 New York Times
found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias towardRepublican candidates.
 
April 21-24, 2011
Survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters
April 21-24, 2011
Survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-69883020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
West Virginia Democratic Survey Results
Q1
The Democratic candidates for Governor areJeff Kessler, Arne Moltis, John Perdue, NatalieTennant, Rick Thompson, and Earl RayTomblin. If the primary was today, who wouldyou vote for?5%
Jeff Kessler 
.....................................................
1%
Arne Moltis 
......................................................
17%
John Perdue 
...................................................
16%
Natalie Tennant 
...............................................
15%
Rick Thompson 
...............................................
32%
Earl Ray Tomblin 
.............................................
14%
Undecided 
.......................................................
Q2
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor EarlRay Tomblin’s job performance?58%
Approve 
.................
19%
Disapprove 
............
24%
Not sure 
................
Q3
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof John Perdue?32%
Favorable 
........................................................
26%
Unfavorable 
....................................................
42%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q4
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Natalie Tennant?43%
Favorable 
........................................................
26%
Unfavorable 
....................................................
31%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q5
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Rick Thompson?32%
Favorable 
........................................................
23%
Unfavorable 
....................................................
46%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q6
Do you approve or disapprove of BarackObama’s job performance?42%
Approve 
.................
46%
Disapprove 
............
12%
Not sure 
................
Q7
Who did you vote for President in 2008?34%
John McCain 
...................................................
54%
Barack Obama 
................................................
12%
Someone else/Don't remember 
......................
Q8
Would you describe yourself as very liberal,somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhatconservative, or very conservative?15%
Very liberal 
......................................................
19%
Somewhat liberal 
............................................
37%
Moderate 
.........................................................
19%
Somewhat conservative 
..................................
10%
Very conservative 
...........................................
Q9
If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.58%
Woman 
...........................................................
42%
Man 
.................................................................
Q10
If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.95%
White 
..............................................................
5%
Other 
...............................................................
Q11
If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.14%
18 to 29 
...........................................................
20%
30 to 45 
...........................................................
40%
46 to 65 
...........................................................
26%
Older than 65 
..................................................
 
April 21-24, 2011
survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters
April 21-24, 2011
survey of 590 likely Democratic primary voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-69883020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
 BaseObama ApprovalApproveDisapproveNotsure2011 Dem GovPrimaryJeff KesslerArne MoltisJohn PerdueNatalie TennantRick ThompsonEarl Ray TomblinUndecided 5%
8% 4% 4%
1%
0% 1% -
17%
16% 21% 9%
16%
20% 11% 17%
15%
15% 13% 23%
31%
27% 36% 30%
15%
14% 14% 18%
 BaseObama ApprovalApproveDisapproveNotsureTomblin ApprovalApproveDisapproveNot sure 58%
62% 56% 48%
19%
16% 23% 13%
24%
22% 21% 39%
 BaseObama ApprovalApproveDisapproveNotsurePerdue FavorabilityFavorableUnfavorableNot sure 32%
38% 31% 16%
27%
29% 26% 19%
41%
33% 43% 66%
 BaseObama ApprovalApproveDisapproveNotsureTennant FavorabilityFavorableUnfavorableNot sure 43%
57% 31% 37%
27%
20% 35% 18%
31%
24% 34% 45%

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