GTM-Skype 2003 Sep

DAIWA

DAIWA INSTITUTE OF RESEARCH LTD.

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Global Equity Research

September 2003

(No. of pages: 40)

Global Telecom Monthly

This month

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Global

: We think the arrival of Skype, a distributed P2P VoIP applicationfrom the original founders of KaZaA is something to be scared of, and is probably set to become the biggest story of the year in the sector. We think that it has unique features which will make regulatory challenges moredifficult than those posed elsewhere, and that it will benefit from theassociation with the KaZaA phenomenon and general demographic trends.

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US

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Regulatory pressure on VoIP at state public utility commissions – Liftingof school cellphone bans to be a boon to growth? – Swift uptake for the National Do Not Call Registry.

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Europe

: FT moves to take out orange minorities – Vodafone upgraded torating 2 from 3 – Supply chain issues at 3 UK – BT Group makes headwaywith streaming video over GPRS.

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AsiaPac

: China Unicom 1H result comes in below our estimates – Consolidation and horse-trading in Korea and Taiwan – Japan Telecom exitsfixed line business – MNP to hit Japan in 2005 – KDDI 1x base tops 10m.

C

ONTENTS

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Global Telecom Monthly

Contents

Regional/subsector investment stance summary

P. 3

Global perspective

From the people who brought us KaZaA, the first distributed P2P telephony network –Skype. It traverses NATs and firewalls, it's heavily encrypted, and it's free. Brand affiliation,user affinity and demographics seem to be on its side. Watch out voice market................P. 4

News

A round-up of global telecoms events over the past month P. 8

Statistics and valuations

Cellular Subs, Cellular Penetration, Cellular ARPU, Broadband Internet Subs,Valuation – Integrated, Valuation – Cellular, Share Price Performance,Corporate Earnings, Earnings Revisions, Rating Revision..................................................P. 13

Monthly stats

P. 31

Forthcoming events

P. 37

Appendix

Equity relationships among global telcos P. 38

I

NVESTMENT

S

TANCE

September 2003

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Regional/subsector investment stance summary

Wtd. stockRegion/segment Stance recommendations* Top picks Comments/action

Europe Integrated NEUTRAL 2.84 France Telecom, Earnings momentum remains positive, butPortugal Telecom relative valuations look toppy, and we aregrowing more concerned about marketfragmentation and disruptive influences.Europe Wireless OVERWEIGHT 2.53 Vodafone, mmO

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Newsflow has been good and operatingperformance soundUS Integrated WEAK NEUTRAL 3.57 n.a. Proactive stance towards product bundling andsome recent regulatory victories make usmarginally more positive, but line loss,cannibalisation and regulatory uncertainty makeleave us cautious.US Wireless OVERWEIGHT 2.28 AT&T Wireless Selectively overweight, but we are increasinglyconcerned over the potential of pure-playwireless operators to stave off bundled productoffering from integrated players. Some supportmay come from consolidation speculation.AsiaPac Integrated OVERWEIGHT 1.74 KT Corp, Impressive combination of value and balanceNTT, Telstra, sheet strength, though selectivity is essential.China TelecomAsiaPac Wireless OVERWEIGHT 1.56 China Mobile, Balance sheet strength coupled with a mixtureNTT DoCoMo, of secular growth and success in advancedKDDI data services.Source: DIR estimates*Based on DIR 1 - 5 rating system