Serious Delinquency Rates – 100 Largest Metro Areas, December 2010

April 2011

By Leah Hendey and Rob Pitingolo, Urban Institute

Serious Delinquency Rates Stabilize in 100 Largest Metros

The average serious delinquency rate for the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas stood at 9.7 percent
in December 2010, down from a high of 10.4 percent at the end of the 2009. Rates of serious
delinquency stabilized in all of the 100 largest metro areas over the past year, with only eight areas
experiencing small increases in the rate. The change in serious delinquency was driven by a change in
the 90+ day delinquency rate rather than a change in the share of loans in foreclosure: the average 90+
day delinquency rate for the largest 100 metro areas dropped 1.4 percentage points in the past year
but the average foreclosure rate rose 0.7 percentage points.

Several California Metro Areas Saw Large Year-Over-Year Decreases

Although California is still experiencing above-average rates of serious delinquency, several California
metro areas such as Riverside, Stockton, Bakersfield, and Modesto have experienced some of the
largest year-over-year drops in seriously delinquency across all top 100 metro areas. Riverside-San
Bernardino still ranks 10th in serious delinquency across the largest 100 metropolitan areas at 15.4
percent but dropped more than four percentage points since December 2009. Other California metro
areas, like San Diego and San Francisco, with lower serious delinquency rates did not see as substantial
declines.
Sunbelt Metro Areas Continue to Top Serious Delinquency Rankings
Sunbelt metro areas in Florida and the southwestern United States continue to have some of the
highest rates of serious delinquency – well above the 100-metro average. Other than Las Vegas,
the ten metropolitan areas with the highest rates are all in Florida. Miami remains the metro area
with the highest rate of serious delinquency at 24.6 percent in December 2010, down only 1.2
percentage points from a year ago. Las Vegas follows closely at 24.1 percent, down only 0.5 points.
The serious delinquency rates in the metro areas in the chart below have stabilized in the past
year but do not show the significant downward trend of the California metropolitan areas.

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Serious Delinquency Rates Stabilize for Many Midwestern Metros
While a few Midwestern metro areas, such as Detroit and Youngstown, saw significant downward
year-over-year trend in serious delinquency, others like: Chicago, Columbus, and Milwaukee,
showed signs of stabilization rather than a clear downward trend in the past year. Youngstown still
ranks 22nd among all metropolitan areas on the foreclosure rate in December 2010 at 9.3 percent
though the serious delinquency rate has decreased from 14.9 percent to 13.7 percent in the past
year. Serious delinquency decreased in Detroit from 13.2 percent to 11.4 percent in the same
period. In Chicago, serious delinquency rose quickly in 2009 but flattened out in 2010.

Many Metros with High Serious Delinquency Rates Saw Rates Fall More Quickly in 2010
Generally, most of the 100 largest metro areas with serious delinquency rates that were falling
most quickly between December 2009 and December 2010 still had the highest shares of serious
delinquency (See Table 1). In addition, the majority of the metro areas with the highest share of
serious delinquency were in this group, with an average percentage point decrease of 1.8 since
December 2009. A few metro areas in the top third of serious delinquency rates did see small
increases in the past year, including more than a half of a percentage point in Jacksonville and
Poughkeepsie. Only five of the 100 largest metro areas: Boston, Denver, Greenville, Minneapolis,
and Washington, D.C, had seriously delinquency rates that were falling more quickly and ranked in
the lowest third on the serious delinquency rate. Metro areas in the middle third of serious
delinquency were more evenly split across levels of change in this period.

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 Table 1: Top 100 Metros by Mortgage Delinquency and Change in Delinquency, December 2010
Percentage point change in share seriously delinquent, 12/09-12/10

Falling Slowly / Falling More

Stabilizing Quickly
Albuquerque
Austin
Buffalo Baton Rouge
Colorado Springs Dallas
Harrisburg Des Moines
Lowest Share

Honolulu El Paso
Boston
Knoxville Hartford
Denver
Madison Houston
Greenville
Oklahoma City Kansas City
Minneapolis
Portland, ME Lancaster
Washington, DC
Portland, OR Omaha
Rochester Raleigh
Tulsa San Antonio
Wichita San Jose
San Francisco
Share of mortgages seriously delinquent, 12/10

Virginia Beach
Albany
Augusta
Allentown
Bridgeport
Baltimore
Charleston Birmingham
Little Rock
Charlotte Boise
Louisville
Columbia Grand Rapids
Nashville
Columbus Greensboro
Philadelphia
Lansing McAllen
Richmond
Milwaukee Oxnard
Salt Lake City
New Haven San Diego
Scranton
Pittsburgh Worcester
Seattle
St. Louis
Syracuse
Santa Rosa
Tucson
Akron
Atlanta
Bakersfield
Cleveland
Detroit
Fresno
Bradenton
Indianapolis
Highest Share

Chattanooga
Jackson
Cincinnati Chicago
Lakeland
Jacksonville Dayton
Los Angeles
Memphis Las Vegas
Miami
New York New Orleans
Modesto
Palm Bay Providence
Orlando
Poughkeepsie
Phoenix
Tampa
Riverside
Sacramento
Springfield, MA
Stockton
Toledo
Youngstown
Note: 100 largest metro areas divided into thirds along each dimension. Seriously delinquent mortgages included
those in foreclosure plus others delinquent by 90 days or more.
Source: Analysis of LPS Applied Analytics data by Local Initiatives Support Corporation